I made an effort to watch all three White Sox - Cubs games this past weekend, thinking that we (ChiSox) would have a chance to keep those pesky Twins at bay – and of course, show our cross-town rivals a thing or two.

Like I said in the WTN for the Cubs, boy was I being prophetic. Nary a word of trash-talk comes out of my fingers and the Sox spiral into some kind of bizarre, home-run allowing, non-moving-RISP, dribbler-down-the-line-for-a-double-play-hitting team.

I hate to admit it, but series like these prove the White Sox are at the top because the other teams aren’t winning. Much like the Twins winning the division for a while early in the decade, Ozzie’s Sox have been good enough to stay on top, but that won’t be true for long, as those pesky Twins are inching ever-so closer. And don’t look now, but the Tigers might make a run for it in the AL Central.

During those annoying in-game interviews, Joe Morgan asked Ozzie for one wish; Ozzie’s response: My hitters to get hot.

The Sox offense sputtered all weekend, producing a couple of home runs and some run-scoring singles, but not enough to counter the slugfest that was the Cubs’ line up. Aramis Ramirez? Are you serious? In fact, the Sox had the lead in the first two games but the bullpen just couldn’t hold on. And last night, Ryan Dempster won his ninth home-game in a row.

I hated the Octavio Dotel signing before the season began, and I hate it even more now. He gave up two consecutive home runs on Friday that got the Cubs back in the game. With his two blown saves, 3.31 ERA (second-highest in the Sox pen), and three losses, it’s plenty to skew perception towards the negative.

It’s still early, and the Cubbies still have to play three more in the South Side next weekend, so we’ll just save the condolences for then.

Now for the linkage:

[Baseball Musings] The let-down in stats: The White Sox had allowed 54 home runs before the seires. They allowed nine during those three games.

[Baseball Think Factory] Asking your top RBI producer to bunt with two runners on and nobody out? Well that or hit into a double play.

[Newsday's Baseball Insider] Kevin Davidoff’s sticking to his preseason prediction and thinks the Mets are more likely than the Yankees to make the playoffs.

[The LoHud Yankees Blog] “Prepare yourself for the return of Sir Sidney Ponson.”

[Palm Beach Post] M.C. Hammer may have gotten Jack McKeon fired.

Currently in second place in the AL West, the Oakland A’s are (surprise, surprise) performing better than most had expected of them prior to the season. After trading away their top hitter (Swisher) and pitcher (Haren) during the off-season, only androids (like Marvin here) - and UmpBump’s own Nick and Coley - figured that Oakland would be in the thick of the division race in 2008. But lookie what we have here.

Despite being 3 1/2 games behind Anaheim (and no, I will not call them LA), the A’s have by far the best run differential in their division, scoring 4.5 runs per game while giving up a paltry 3.8. Yes, it’s probably still too early to look too deeply into things like this, but it is worth a mention. So what do they need to make their push towards the post season? More pop.

Although being able to score 4.5 runs per game is pretty good, I don’t see how they can keep it up as they are currently constructed. Their team batting average is .255, which is below league average. But with runners in scoring position, that number jumps to .278, which third highest in the league. There’s a decent chance that those two numbers will become closer together by the end of the year. And I’m betting that it’s going to be their average with RISP that’s going to come down a bit, which is going to make their offense slightly below average.

While the addition of Frank Thomas certainly does help, unless Eric Chavez remains healthy, Jack Cust is the only guy in the lineup with considerable pop. There is currently no one on the squad with double-digit homerun totals. As a team, they are 25th in all of MLB in the category and 27th in slugging percentage - neither figure elicits images of a playoff-bound team.

I do think their pitching is for real, however. Or at least, good enough. I am watching Joe Blanton’s K and walk rates, and I do think that Dana Eveland’s walks are going to come back to haunt him one of these days. But even if one of these guys falter, they have a perfectly good replacement just waiting in the bullpen by the name of Chad Gaudin. Throw in what appears to be a stellar defense behind them - despite the presence of Cust in left -, and I think they can keep this good thing going. And if they had a little more muscle, I’d be pretty sure of it.

-What They Need Index-

I don’t purposely pick on White Sox GM Kenny Williams. I cannot deny that neither of the posts I had written about him in the past were very complimentary, which I guess is kind of like saying that The Two Coreys will undoubtedly rocket these two fine gentlemen back to super-stardom where they belong (They’re both understatements. Get it? No? Let’s move on). But I will admit that so far in 2008, the Chicago White Sox have been better than I had them pegged to be, thanks to some very surprisingly effective pitching. And I should give the guy some credit for this. So Kenny, I underestimated you and your club (*quietly whispers* i still don’t think you guys will win though… *cough*).

So why am I even mentioning Kenny? Well, upon hearing the news that A’s prospect Fautino De Los Santos had undergone Tommy John surgery this week, it reminded me of something.

You see, De Los Santos is a 22-year old pitcher who was traded by the Chicago White Sox to Oakland along with Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney in exchange for Nick Swisher during the winter. It was believed at the time that, while raw, his potential upside was higher than any of the other players involved in the deal. But the A’s shut him down in early May due to a sore elbow. And now it’s Tommy John, meaning that he’ll most certainly be out for the rest of the year, and may miss all of 2009 as well.

But this was reminiscent of another trade that the White Sox made back in 2001, when Mike Sirotka was sent packing as part of a deal that netted Kenny Williams David Wells from the Toronto Blue Jays. But Sirotka never threw a single pitch in a Toronto uniform, because his shoulder had been injured (torn labrum) before the deal ever happened. Kenny Williams (as first year GM) argued that Toronto was given all the medical reports they needed, and the Jays cried foul, claiming that vital information was withheld from them. The whole issue turned into a bit of a fiasco with the Jays appealing to Bud Selig to overturn the deal as a result. The Commish balked, essentially stating that while Chicago was very well aware of the poor state of Sirotka’s shoulder, that Toronto should have done their homework, which isn’t all that unreasonable, I suppose. As I understand it, the Jays front office did not make the trade pending a physical. It was only conducted after the trade was consummated. Oddly enough however, the first physical given by Toronto showed nothing irregular. It was only when they went for a second opinion to Dr. James Andrews that the problem was discovered. But Sirotka himself put it very nicely:

Sirotka said he was examined by White Sox doctors in early January and given a cortisone shot. He was told to let team doctors know if there was any discomfort after 10 days, but was traded.

“At the time I was getting examined, I didn’t think there was much to worry about because they didn’t seem too concerned,” Sirotka told the Sun-Times. “But one of my first reactions after being traded was I must really be hurt because I didn’t think the trade made much sense.”

It should also be noted that another player that went to Toronto in that deal, pitcher Mike Williams, was also injured before arriving in Canada, but Chicago argued ignorance on that one. According to Kenny WIlliams himself:

“After the deal, Mike Wiliams calls our minor-league trainer and says, ‘Hey, by the way, I went on my own this offseason and had an MRI. Basically what it showed is that I’ve got a bone bruise through some sort of dislocation.’

“Our trainer reported that to me. I reported that to Toronto. The player went and did this on his own. We had no knowledge of it. The doctor said it would be a month before the bone bruise could heal. I don’t know that that has changed.

“When I asked Toronto about the problem, they were very vague. I said, ‘Please do this. Send the information to our trainer so we can take a look at it ourselves, but let us know what the problems are.’ If there’s a problem, it’s a completely separate issue from Sirotka. I don’t know what Mike (Williams) was doing. He wasn’t forthright with us. It’s just a very bad coincidence.

“I did inform Gord that if there’s a problem with Mike Williams more than what the player told us, then in good faith we will go back and agree on how to make that right. That’s not at issue.”

Believe it or not, there’s more. Back in 2006, the Philadelphia Phillies also received a pitcher that was injured prior to a trade. And yes, he came from Chicago’s South Side. The acquisition of Freddy Garcia was initially considered a pretty good move for the Phils, who was in need of an “innings-eater”. And Garcia certainly fit the bill, making Philadelphia contenders going into 2007. But right at the onset of spring training, something was apparently wrong. By mid-March, there was talk of him starting the year on the disabled list.  Of course, the Phillies went on to win the NL East last year, but none of the credit went to Garcia, who made 11 starts, compiled a 5.90 ERA, and won 1 game. He made his final start on June 8th and underwent season ending surgery in August. It would come to light that Garcia had been receiving cortisone shots in his shoulder, although the pitcher denied this despite his own agent admitting its veracity.

Again, it was a case of a team (this time, the Phillies) not doing their homework. They had relied on the White Sox’ own medical reports to inform them before pulling the trigger on the deal. It was really only after the injury became apparent that people inside the game talked openly about how Garcia’s fastball had lost velocity before the trade even happened. I’m not sure where these opinions were before his shoulder exploded as a Phil, but they were loud and clear by June of ‘07. Sure, in retrospect, the numbers posed a bunch of red flags, especially his strikeout rates in ‘05 and ‘06. But I can’t find one instance where a columnist or analyst pointed this out to be problematic at the time the deal went down. Either way, it was yet another situation where the Chicago White Sox were able to unload a pitcher with a pre-existing injury.

This is not to say that Fautino De Los Santos was damaged goods before he was traded. I have no idea if this was the case and am not making an accusation. But this is now the third incident in Kenny Williams’ tenure that something like this has happened - and that’s not even including the case of Mike Williams. So you have to wonder - will front offices become far more hesitant to even deal with Kenny Williams? And why aren’t they taking more precautions than they do?

Billy Beane has done it again. Frank Thomas has cleared waivers and will rejoin his old team, the Oakland A’s, for mere pennies:

The deal came together in a matter of hours Wednesday after Thomas cleared waivers…Oakland will be on the hook only for about $337,000 — a prorated share of the $390,000 league minimum — so this move was a bargain for general manager Billy Beane and a club looking to boost its power numbers.

Thomas will still get nearly $8 million this year from the Blue Jays.

This changes the picture a bit more in the AL West. A few renegade baseball watchers and some smart computers were already picking them as surprise division winners, but the addition of Frank Thomas makes them visibly more dangerous.

Billy Beane just continues to look even more like a crazy wizard genius with each move he makes. If he takes this team to the postseason after dumping both his best pitcher and his best hitter while getting another team to pay millions of dollars for his cleanup hitter…[whistles slowly]…damn. What do you think will happen?

Free coffee and baseball: This is a match made in heaven, from Sarah’s point of view. Two notes: 1. Jose Canseco is worried that he’ll get poisoned via free coffee. 2. Jonathan Papelbon is advertising free coffee (with purchase of either a flatbread sandwich or a pizza) at Dunkin’ Donuts, available the day after the Red Sox win. Sounds a bit complicated to me—and it’s cheap of DD to exclude their own employees. Not to mention that Paps looks like a cheeseball in this photo. Why didn’t they just go with a real post-game shot?

Speed: the Blue Jays are going to be swiping more bags this season. And speaking of speed, I enjoyed watching the A’s relievers throw over to first with Jason Varitek standing on the bag. Yes, let’s make sure the 35-year old catcher doesn’t steal.

Fans: It just goes to show you that the Dodgers really do have a special relationship with their fans, as LA hurler Brad Penny warmed up with a lucky fan yesterday. Across town, Angels owner Arte Moreno bought souvenirs for several fans. And it seems that Baltimore’s long-suffering faithful are finally abandoning their ballclub. Just don’t get mad when the Sox come to town in May and bring their hordes of free-spending fans with them, transforming Camden Yards into Fenway South. The O’s need the revenue.

No-hitters: Yesterday, ESPN.com carried a teaser for the Chicago-Detroit game saying the Dontrelle Willis was throwing a no-no through five innings. To me, that’s just false advertising. Sure, it’s technically accurate to say that D-Train ended up one-hitting the White Sox, but it would perhaps be more descriptive to say that Willis went five innings, while walking seven and striking out none. It was the least dominant no-no bid I’ve ever watched. An outing more worthy of ESPN’s hype would have been Jake Peavy’s two-hit complete game or Manny Parra’s legit seven-strikeout no-hit bid, carried through five innings.

Reds Rookies: On the heels of Johnny Cueto’s stunning debut Thursday, another Reds rookie pitcher impresses today. Edinson Volquez has pitched five innings so far, with seven K’s and one earned run. He’s scattered three hits and two walks.

Sleep: The Red Sox really do need it. Their odyssey from Florida to Japan to California to Toronto is starting to tell, and it’s most readily apparent on defense. Boston has already committed two errors halfway through today’s game. They had two errors yesterday, too, and have racked up a number of sloppy near-errors over the past few games. They have a day off tomorrow and open Fenway Park on Tuesday.

Baseball is here. Yes, I know it’s March, and most of you are thinking brackets and basketball, but that didn’t stop Selig and his henchmen from orchestrating a third consecutive opening day in Japan. Not that there’s anything wrong with it, mind you; but it is kinda odd to wake up, turn on the TV, and see Keith Foulke striking out Manny Ramirez to end the 8th. Keith Foulke?! Wha? Ricoh? Am I still awake? Moss who?

So anyway, now that the new major league baseball season is underway, I think it appropriate to compile all the bonus material we have been working in preparation for 2008 here at UmpBump.

Obviously, it wouldn’t be 2008 without some hot off season action. So make your way to our easy-to-digest breakdown of every single major-league club’s offseason strategy.

But don’t forget to check out our “what they still need” features; who knows, some of those teams might still need some of that hocus pocus (yes, Royals fans, keep drinking that Kool-Aid).

For those of you scoring at home, 2008 can be the year of many a milestone. Will Griffey, Jr. reach 600 homers? Will Randy Johnson notch his 300th win? Will Johnny Damon leg-out his 100th triple?

And last but not least, don’t forget to keep up with our Fantasy League. We’ll keep you up with most major transactions. And with all the knowledge we spew everyday and everything, it should be interesting.

(Psst, and don’t forget to be in the look out for these)

What’s that you say? Who are we to judge? Let ‘er rip in the comments!

Reds OF Jay Bruce will start the year in the minors. Reds 1B Joey Votto could be heading there, too. Ditto for Rays 3B Evan Longoria and Rangers C Jarred Saltiama…Saltiamacch….you know, Salty.

Here’s what folks are saying about these moves:

Keith Law on Longoria and his replacement, Willie Aybar: “[W]hat the hell are the Rays doing with Willy Aybar? He’s not a good player to begin with. He missed 2007 with a substance-abuse problem. He was arrested less than two months ago for beating his wife, and only got out of jail because she didn’t want to pursue the charges, not because he was acquitted or cleared. And this is the guy you’re thinking of running out there instead of the best prospect in baseball? It’s stupid, uncharacteristically so for that front office.”

DRays Bay on Longoria: Seriously? That is going to be the excuse? He doesn’t hit breaking balls well?!?! And tell me, exactly how is he going to learn how to hit a major league breaking ball in the minors?

Rob Neyer on Longoria, Bruce and Votto: It doesn’t matter much if the Rays send Evan Longoria down, because they’re not a playoff team either way. But the Reds maybe have sort of a legitimate shot … if Bruce and Votto combine for 1,000 or more plate appearances (and yes, I pulled that figure from thin air).

Bugs and Cranks on Bruce: The question is, was this decision made before Patterson even made camp in an attempt to save money? If the Reds don’t call up Bruce until June, they get an extra year before Jay is arbitration eligible.

Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News, on Salty: To create the most value for the most catchers in a system stacked with catchers, Laird must play regularly. So must Saltalamacchia. The best way to do that is to have one catch regularly in the majors with no temptation to play the other. For now, that means Laird must play in the majors and Saltalamacchia in the minors. It’s just better for their values.

Here’s A’s skipper Bob Geren and his wife arriving in Tokyo, looking quite the dashing duo:

And here’s Red Sox manager Terry Francona and his wife, looking, well…not:

Here’s hoping they weren’t planning on meeting up for dinner. (Awk-ward!)

But the dichotomy wasn’t limited to the manager. This photo left me wondering, “Is that Travis Buck or Hansel? He’s so hot right now!”

There’s no question, however, about Kevin Youkilis right here:

If you squint, you can actually see every minute of that 18-hour flight on his face. Not so for Bobby Crosby:

The last time I saw a bald man looking that good in a suit, it was Jason Statham and he was transporting something. But hey, at least Manny wore a blazer….and his “dressy” do-rag:

Jack Cust, meanwhile, gives his classic pinstriped look two thumbs up:

And at least the Sox have Curt Schilling with them to wear a suit (if not to…oh, I don’t know…throw a ball):

Too bad he forgot his button-down. (And too bad his suite is beige. A beige suit is never the answer, Curt. Especially for a man who is 1. pasty and 2. watching his weight.)

What do you say, UmpBumpers?

more at twiigs.com…

Today, Athletics Nation constructs “a parallel universe where everything is about the same as this one, except Rich Harden’s body actually holds up, and when you put two socks into the dryer you get two back.”

The blog imagines a scenario where the A’s compete in the AL West and are buyers at the trade deadline instead of sellers.

Sounds crazy, right?

Yeah, I thought so, too. But then U.S.S. Mariner comes along and runs a bunch of computer simulations and determines that the 2008 Oakland Athletics are the favorites to win the AL West.

From U.S.S. Mariner:

The division favorite was not the Angels but the torn-down Athletics, 47% to 42%, and Texas won the division almost as often as the M’s. The A’s-Angels thing is as much a shock as anything. General analyst-on-TV-or-radio seems to be that it’s all about the M’s-Angels, but Oakland fields the best pitching/defense combination in the AL and their offense is decent too.

Of course, preseason computer projections take for granted that a team’s players will be healthy. And the A’s have been anything but in recent years. We’re talking about guys like Rich Harden, Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. If all three of them stay healthy it will be a miracle.

Still, let’s take a moment and contemplate the A’s. This team, which finished ten games below .500 last season and traded its best pitcher and star CF in the offseason, is a favorite — if only in the world of computer projections.

That’s just a little bit amazing, isn’t it?

I think we can all agree that if the A’s find a way to win the division this season, Billy Beane will need to be bumped to the top of this list. And he’ll probably need some kind of new title. “General manager” just won’t cut it any more. I’m thinking something with a little more flair. Maybe “jedi talent assessor” or “master of player acquisition.”

And if the A’s tank this season and finish in last place … well, that’ll just prove once and for all that you can’t trust a computer.

This is one in a series of posts in which we break down each team’s wily offseason maneuvers and tragic offseason blunders.

Coming into the 2007-2008 offseason, Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane faced a problem.

The 2007 season had proved beyond all doubt that the A’s needed to rebuild. Beane had effectively decided bet the farm for the next several years on longterm contracts to 3B Eric Chavez and SS Bobby Crosby, but that was not working out due to both players’ injury woes (not that Beane should have necessarily bet the farm on fading pitchers like Barry Zito or Mark Mulder instead!).

Clearly the A’s as currently constituted had no chance to contend, but the question was, how could rebuild when there was nothing to rebuild with? Although the A’s farm system was not exactly barren, it was definitely no longer producing superstars the way it had been in the late 90’s, and outside of the occasional Travis Buck, was having difficulty producing even serviceable major leaguers of late.

Meanwhile the traditional avenues of rebuilding, via trade or free agency, were growing increasingly constricted. The combination of spiraling player salaries and baseball being flush with cash from better marketing and the cash cow that is MLB Advanced Media meant that teams were increasingly using their newfound cash to sign all the hot young players (and plenty of mediocre ones as well) out of their arbitration years, and in more and more cases, even several of their first few free agent years.

The words “cost certainty” were on everyone’s lips. Nobody wanted to trade away young talent, because young players provide more cost certainty, but at the same time, no good free agents were hitting the market, because all the good young players were being signed until they were well into their decline years.

Basically, baseball fans were getting what they had always claimed they always wanted. Far less player movement between teams, even poorer teams locking up their hot young stars, and more stable team rosters to root for from year to year.

Of course, every fan loves a stable roster when your team is great, but the problem comes in when your team sucks, because if players don’t move around as much, and are all locked in for years to come, then you are going to have a pretty sucky team for years on end.

This was precisely the problem that Billy Beane faced. He had cost certainty up the wazoo, but his team was sucky, and wasn’t going to get any better by signing whatever odd Kyle Lohses or Aaron Rowands might hit the constricted market, even if he had the money for that, which he didn’t.

So Billy Beane did what he always does - he bucked the system, found what people were overvaluing, and gave them what they wanted, for something he valued more. And in this case, when everyone was scrambling to find more cost certainty, Billy Beane decided to trade away cost certainty for something he needed more - boatloads of uncertain prospects from which he could sift tomorrow’s stars.

And I’m not talking about the weak cost certainty for a Dontrelle Willis or a Miguel Cabrerra - guys with just one or two arbitration years left and not signed to a contract. I’m talking about massive amounts of cost certainty - Dan Haren was signed for the next three years at an average of a paltry $5.25 million per. OBP machine Nick Swisher was signed for the next five years.

Most teams would never trade away players with contracts like that, even if they were in the most rebuildingest rebuilding mode in the history of rebuilding. Sure, they would gladly trade away overpriced big-name stars, fading “experienced veterans,” and talented players in the last year of their contracts. But trade away two outstanding young players just entering the prime of their careers and by some stroke of fate signed for the next several years to rock-bottom, bargain-basement contracts? Why would you ever want to do that?

But what Beane realized was that what good was keeping guys like Haren and Swisher around for, if you weren’t ever going to win while they were there? Sure, from some sort of “objective” perspective, their contracts look like absolute bargains, but if you are going to be losing anyway, what is the point of paying Dan Haren $5 million when you could instead be paying a prospect the major league minimum? Especially when people will give you all sorts of prospects for him? Prospects who might actually help you get back on a winning track, by rebuilding your team at a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult to rebuild?

So that’s what Billy Beane did. And I will be the first to admit that I criticized him in this space for making the Haren trade at the time, because I figured he maybe could have gotten even more. But that may have been a hasty reaction. In hindsight, when we consider what the Twins are reportedly set to get for trading the best pitcher on the planet to the Mets, Beane looks like he made out like a bandit by comparison. The Twins got four middling prospects, while the A’s got six respectable prospects. You think the Twins would have rather got what the A’s got for Santana? In a cold second they would have. The A’s traded away the lesser player, but got significantly more in return. That’s what trading away cost certainty can get you.

Check back in 2010 to see if it all works out.

Offseason Grade: B+

For boldness, and a little rashness, and Beane doing everything he possibly could to get the A’s back on a winning track in a ridiculously thin market. Probably nothing could have gotten the A’s an “A” grade this time around, because they were pretty much doomed from the start to not field a winning team in 08, no matter what moves they made.

Acquisitions: Prospects Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, and Carlos Gonzalez (for Dan Haren); Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeney (for Nick Swisher); Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey (for Marco Scutaro); Joey Devine (for Mark Kotsay); Emil Brown

Losses: Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Mark Kotsay, Marco Scutaro, Mike Piazza, Shannon Stewart

Projected Lineup, Starters, and Closer:

LF Travis Buck - .288/.377/.474
2B Mark Ellis - .276/.336 /.441, 19 HR
DH Jack Cust - .256/.408/.504, 26 HR
1B Derrick Barton - .347/.429/.639, 18 MLB games
3B Eric Chavez - .240/.306/.446, 15 HR
SS Bobby Crosby - .226/.278/.341, 10 SB
CF Chris Denorfia - .283/.356/.368
C Kurt Suzuki - .249/.327/.408, 7 HR in 63 games
RF Emil Brown - .257/.300/.347

RHP Joe Blanton - 14-10, 3.95
LHP Rich Harden - 1-2, 2.45
RHP Chad Gaudin - 11-13, 4.42
LHP Lenny DiNardo - 8-10, 4.11
RHP Justin Duchscherer - 3-3, 4.96

CL Huston Street - 16 SV, 2.88

- Hot Offseason Action Index -