I’m going to post my own World Series preview later today, where I go position by position. But first I wanted to point out that Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin has his own preview up, where he compares the Phillies lineup to the Yankees lineup. Much of the column is fine, but he starts out with one big, steaming turd:

Leadoff: Jimmy Rollins vs. Derek Jeter

The Yankees’ captain is a first- ballot Hall of Fame lock. Rollins adds to his credentials year-by-year. Both are run scorers and producers. Give Jeter the edge as a pure hitter, Rollins check marks for power from both sides and speed. Jeter’s intangibles are off the charts. Rollins revels on the Big Stage.

RINGS: Rollins 1, Jeter 4.

EDGE: Even.

Even? Wow. That’s pretty bold. Jimmy Rollins had a terrible year, while Jeter had a career year and if not for Joe Mauer he’d probably be your AL MVP. Really, here’s all you need to know about the Rollins vs. Jeter debate. A leadoff hitter’s job is to get on base. Rollins was much better at getting on base after the All Star break, but even then his OBP was only .305, which is absolutely terrible. Jeter’s OBP this season was .406 and his career OBP is .388, a much higher mark than Rollins has ever posted in a single season.

I love the Phillies and I love Rollins, but it is impossible to make an intelligent argument that Rollins is a better leadoff hitter than Jeter, which is probably why Conlin keeps things so vague in his column. Rollins gets “check marks for power from both sides” of the plate? Against lefties, J-Ro had two more home runs than Jeter. Against righties, Rollins had one more home run. Does that make up for the 100 points of OBP? Or Jeter’s 40 point advantage in slugging? Bill, did you take into account that Jeter played in a league with stronger pitching? Bill, when you give Rollins check marks for speed, is that because he had one more stolen base this season than Jeter? Because that seems pretty negligible. And did you notice that Jeter actually had a better stolen base percentage? Because that actually seems relevant.

Come on, Bill. Rollins is the man, and when it comes to making bold predictions and giving good quotes he has no peer. And you could make the case that Rollins is a better defender, even though ultimate zone rating suggests Jeter had the better season defensively, as well.

But Jeter is the better leadoff hitter, and it isn’t close.

Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin is, we know, a class act with an open mind. But even Conlin can’t resist the chance to say “I told you so,” and this time he’s bragging about just how right he was about Raul Ibanez.

I saw Ibanez play often the past 3 years and didn’t need Pat Gillick to tell me the Phillies were getting one hell of a ballplayer. Yet when I uncurbed my enthusiasm for Raul’s all-around game, despite his age, I was buried by peeved naysayers. “Worse fielder than Pat . . . ” “Horrible arm, can’t run the bases . . . ” “Lacks Pat’s leadership and long-ball threat . . . ” Yadda, yadda, yadda. Weeks and weeks of yadda, yadda and anti-Raul ranting. Maybe it’s too early to say “I told you so,” but, here goes: I told you so. The guy was the Phillies’ best player the first month. Pat Burrell, whose defense also has been perfect, has one homer and 12 RBI for the scuffling Rays.

Baseball Daily Digest’s Bill Baer has already penned an exhaustive post about Ibanez’s performance and what many of us expected, so I’ll spare you the diatribe. But I feel inclined to point out that just because Burrell is off to a slow start in Tampa doesn’t mean he would have started slow had he stayed in Philly. Getting used to a new stadium, a new position and a slightly tougher league isn’t easy. Also, just because Burrell is off to a slow start doesn’t mean he’ll finish slow. He’s a notoriously streaky hitter. Last season, Burrell was the team’s MVP in the first half of the season (.404/.575/.979) and the team’s LVP in the second half (.313/.413/..575). Maybe this year he’ll start slow and finish strong? And maybe Ibanez won’t finish the year with 50 HR and 150 RBI (his current pace). I know that’s going out on a limb, but I think Raul is gonna cool off a bit, at the plate and in the field.

My biggest problem with the contract the Phils gave Ibanez is the length. Ibanez is 37 and Ruben Amaro Jr. gave him a three-year deal. Nobody doubted that Ibanez could continue to cheat time for one more year. Maybe two. But three? If Ibanez is still playing at an elite level when he’s 40, well, I really will owe Amaro and Conlin an apology.

PS. Hey Bill, remember that column you wrote in September of last year when you wished out loud that the Phillies had Gavin Floyd back? You drooled all over Floyd and his 18 wins, neglecting to take into account his unsustainably low babip. How is Floyd doing so far this season? What’s that you say? A 6.29 ERA? An ERA + of 80? Maybe you were wrong about Floyd? Maybe his high win total in 2008 was more luck than skill? Ha ha! Suck it, Conlin! Score one for wishful fan numbers!

Today Philly Daily News columnist Bill Conlin tells us to rest easy — Raul Ibanez is going to be way better than Pat Burrell ever was. And the 2009 Phillies lineup, which is chock full of lefthanded hitters, will be much improved.

From Philly.com:

Manuel will have some flexibility. You could see a lineup against a lefthanded starter that opens with the World Series alignment that flipped Victorino and Werth in the Nos. 2 and 6 holes. Ask CC Sabathia, now in Yankees pinstripes, how that worked out. With Werth establishing himself as a certified power threat, Charlie could bat Shane No. 2, Utley 3, Howard 4, Werth 5 and Ibanez 6. And please don’t start with, “Don’t tell me they’re gonna pay $10 million a year to a No. 6 hitter.” The Phillies just got through paying $14 million a year for a guy who hit .257, struck out a ton, clogged the bases, hasn’t driven in 100 runs since 2005, has never scored 100 runs, and is a seven-inning player.

Crashburn Alley (who you may remember has a bit of a history with Conlin) has taken the time to break Conlin’s column down Fire Joe Morgan-style. But somehow Crashburn neglected to take Conlin to task for accusing Burrell of clogging the bases. And I’m not gonna let that slide.

I’d rather turn this one over to an expert. Here’s what FJM’s Junior (Alan Yang) had to say about base-clogging in April:

The problem is, 99.99463% of the time when writers use “clog the bases” or “clog the basepaths” or some variant thereof, the guy they’re accusing of base-clogging is way better at getting on base, hitting home runs (the opposite of base-clogging — it’s base-Drano-ing!), or both. So it makes little to no sense to complain about their lack of speed.

There’s no debating that Burrell is slow. But it’s not like his replacement, Ibanez, is greased lighting. Moreover, as Junior points out, it doesn’t make any sense to criticize Burrell for base-clogging when he does a better job at getting on base — and clearing them with home runs (.367 OBP/33 HR in 2008) — than Ibanez (.358/23).

The lesson learned here, Bill, is that it’s never a good idea to borrow phrases from Dusty Baker.

Let’s make this Monday a fun day with some links to stuff that other people wrote.

• Jorge Posada thinks the Yankees should keep Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. Fans of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays and Orioles agree.
• Milton Bradley, who leads the league in OBP and is second in batting average and slugging percentage, needs 29 plate appearances over the final 12 games to be eligible as a statistical league leader. He also would reach a $525,000 contract incentive with 27 more plate appearances. He’s missed three of the last four games with a sore left wrist. While Bradley has been a star for the Rangers this season, teams should still worry about his injury history before signing him to a big contract this offseason. And that’s saying nothing about him being, you know, kind of crazy.
• The Braves have the highest on-base percentage, second-highest batting average and third-most runs in the NL since the All-Star break. That tells you something about how bad Atlanta’s pitching has been since the break.
• Another Braves factoid: On Saturday, Atlanta won its first one-run road game in a year. The Braves snapped a major-league record of 29 consecutive losses in one-run road games. The Braves lost their last seven one-run road games in 2007 and all 22 this season before Saturday.
• 
• Bill Conlin thinks Gavin Floyd would look good on the Phillies right now and points out that Floyd leads the White Sox in victories. There’s no doubt that, if he had it to do over again, Pat Gillick wouldn’t trade Floyd and Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox for an injured Freddy Garcia. But let’s not get too carried away with Floyd’s 2008. Among pitchers with 160 innings pitched, he’s got the second lowest BABIP (.238), behind only Tim Wakefield. So it’s likely Floyd won’t be as good next season.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have fired manager Ned Yost and replaced him with third-base coach Dale Sveum. MLB Trade Rumors thinks the timing is bizarre, since the Brew Crew is currently tied for the wild card lead. But Milwaukee had lost six of seven and four in a row. They had to do something. Plus, Sveum is fun to say.

1. If you’re not reading the New York Times’ baseball blog, BATS, for updates from the MLB Congressional hearings, than you are chump. The highlight so far, in my opinion:

(Christopher) Shays (R-Conn.) continued, and later during his five minutes referred to Rafael Palmeiro as “Palmerry.” Mitchell kept his composure during a confounding question, regarding whether Palmeiro had tested positive “before his three-hundredth hit?”

A knowledgeable baseball fan despite recent events, Mitchell responded: “I’m sorry, before what?”

2. The Philly Phanatic is voted number one sports mascot. No argument here. Though, I will take issue with the ninth ranked mascot, Rally, who apparently is affiliated with the Atlanta Braves. Has anybody ever heard of Rally? I lived in Atlanta for three years and this is the first time I’ve ever heard of a Braves mascot.

3. Bill Conlin takes a moment to do the only thing that he really does well — talk about stuff that happened 50 years ago. In this case, he’s talking about the life of recently deceased Johnny Podres, who was a pitching coach for the Phillies under Jim Fregosi, and before that led the Brooklyn Dodgers to the 1955 World Series championship. It’s a good read. You can also read about Pods here and here.

In a recent column, Bill Conlin wonders whether the Phillies could possibly do better in 2oo8 than they did in 2007.He says probably not:

So everybody in Charlie Manuel’s core lineup had either a career year or made contributions that ranged between substantial (Burrell) and outstanding (Howard). Third base was and will be a black hole, the least productive offensively in the majors. And whenever Abe Nuñez was on the bench – too often – third was a defensive liability, as well.

And, as I pointed out in a previous post, Conlin isn’t too wild about the Phils’ pitching:

The rotation? Cole Hamels (knock wood) and Brett Myers (make a novena) are set at the top. Then there is Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton and Chad Durbin and Travis Blackley and . . .

I’m not so sure I agree with Conlin. I think the Phils have improved their roster this offseason, and their record will be better in 2008. Here’s why.

First, the team’s rotation will be better in 2008 than it was in 2007, by virtue of having Brett Myers on board, and by not having Freddy “Mr. 1.60 WHIP” Garcia (who was 1-5 last season in 11 starts). It’s easy to minimize the impact moving Myers to the rotation will have, since he’s not new to the roster. But he’s a power pitcher with nasty stuff — 18 wins is not unrealistic.

Second, the team’s bullpen could be improved if Brad Lidge proves an adequate replacement for Myers. Also, a full season of J.C. Romero in a set-up role won’t hurt.

Third…is third. Yes, third base is a weakness for the Phils. But for how long? Among the MLB third basemen who will be free agents in 2009 are Joe Crede, Nomar Garciaparra, Hank Blalock and Troy Glaus. You have to believe that a few of those guys will be available via trade. Maybe all of them.

Of course, the Phils lost Aaron Rowand to free agency and it remains to be seen if Shane Victorino can be a capable CF or if the Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth platoon will be productive. But there’s no reason to think that either of these experiments won’t work.

What’s important to remember is that, when we talk about “improving”, we’re not talking about turning around a losing team. We’re talking about the Phillies winning 95 games instead of 89. That would be one fewer than the 2007 Red Sox won and one more than last season’s Yankees team.

Can the addition of a stud starting pitcher, an improved bullpen and a late-season 3B addition add up to six more wins? Time will tell. But I say yes.

In case you haven’t been paying attention, Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin is at war with the blogs. And the blogs are winning.

But here’s something the blogosphere has yet to unearth.

In July, the Daily News asked Conlin — “a writer who has covered the game both then and now” — to reflect on what he misses and what he is glad has changed.

We bring you his responses, as well as our snarky comments, Fire Joe Morgan-style.

THREE THINGS I MISS

1. Sitting around with the scouts in media lounges around baseball listening to these rococo poets break down games to their most minuscule points, each wrapped in a rich velour of anecdotal remembrance and apocryphal yarns.

I learned a lot from those scouts. They tought me about the evils of “wishful fan numbers”. Oh, and speaking of wrapping oneself in rich velour, I picked up a few fashion tips, too. Did you know that Hawaiian shirts can be worn pretty much year-round?

2. Day baseball and our old 5 a.m. deadlines, which caused the executive decision of the day: Do I dare risk writing after having dinner with Paul Owens? Or do I write now and miss him ripping, “My little [bleep] shortstop?”

Answer: I didn’t dare risk missing dinner.

3. Being able to buy a player a drink or pick up a dinner check at a time when the major league minimum salary and baseball beat man salary were in the same low-rent ballpark. My first full year on the beat, 1966, I was making a little more than the ML minimum of $10,500. I loved big-timing rookies.

I still love big-timing rookies. And I can do it, too. After all, I’m making ballplayer money for two columns a week! And not 1966 ballplayer money, either. The DN “gave me a generous signing bonus, a quarterly performance bonus and matched the lump sum that would have accompanied the buyout package. They also continued the subsidy of my Florida condo that has been paying the taxes and monthly maintenance since 1987. By law, they had to begin paying me my full pension in 2004, so at age 73 I’m making the top salary at the paper plus collecting the biggest monthly pension check ever paid out.”

THREE THINGS I’M GLAD HAVE CHANGED

1. Not having to take part in the group “one quote serves all” interviews that have become the sorry lot of the baseball beat writer.

In fact, I’ve stopped doing any reporting whatsoever!

2. Not having to write my stories and columns on an Olivetti portable with an “i” key that sticks … Then sending the story via a 30-pound fax machine that was called a “Telecopier” at 6 minutes a page. They were fragile and you weren’t supposed to check them with luggage, but everybody did, so they didn’t have to risk a hernia carrying them a half-mile to the gate. It was fun to see them come careening down the baggage-claim carousel chute, hit the railing and fly open in a shower of cheap plastic fittings. After that came the Radio Shack 100s holding one 25-inch story that would be lost forever if you accidentally got unplugged, as there was no memory in the early ones.

Now I write my stories on an Apple MacBook Pro, but the “i” key still sticks. What, they can come up with portable music players that work under water but they can’t invent a barbecue sauce-proof keyboard?

3. Google, instead of having some harassed clerk look up an obscure fact in a library where any clips worth reading had vanished years before. They were the days when the morgue really was …

… was … umm, I’m sorry. My heart stopped for a couple of seconds there. It does that on occassion. Where was I?

We thought we had a pretty good story when, earlier this week, Philadelphia Daily News baseball writer and former BWAA president Paul Hagen agreed to do an interview with our site.

But it turns out we went after the wrong Daily News writer. Because when it comes to providing good copy, columnist Bill Conlin has no peer.

Yesterday, Conlin wrote a column about why Jimmy Rollins deserved the NL MVP Award. It was what we in the industry call a “blow job piece”. And it was, by any measure, pretty stupid.

Not long after its publication, Fire Joe Morgan took the bait and picked Conlin’s column apart, sentence by moronic sentence.

But today, the real fun has begun. Crashburn Alley emailed Conlin and very politely asked why he thinks Rollins deserved the MVP more than Mets 3B David Wright. And this is what Conlin had to say:

Know what, pal? Bash this. . .Tell your bloggers, my career against theirs. . .

And that was just the beginning. Conlin has (so far) emailed Crashburn three times. And each email is better than the last. You can read them all here.

You could interpret Conlin’s emails as just one guy venting his mounting frustration with the blogosphere. But I think it’s more than that.

I think Conlin’s angry (and often confused) words reveal a guy who is fighting a losing battle to remain relevant. Baseball and the way we evaluate players is changing. Conlin and many other baseball writers no longer speak the language.

But don’t shed any tears for Conlin, or any other baseball writer for that matter. It’s not like they’re the only journalists who have to deal with change. The entire field of journalism is in flux. Reporters are now being asked to carry video cameras. They have to learn to write for the web. They have to learn how to record and edit podcasts.

When Conlin says calls sabermetrics “wishful fan numbers that bear no semblance to reality”, I see a guy who has taken a look at his changing profession and at the changing game of baseball and said, “Screw this. I’m too old to change.”

And if the Daily News wants to continue to employ a guy who long ago stopped doing any meaningful reporting, a guy who doesn’t want to grow as a journalist, a guy who turns a blind eye to the changes going on all around him, it’s their funeral.