I’m not going to waste your time with a big lead in. Game 2 between the Phillies and Dodgers starts in an hour. So let’s get right to it.

National League

I love Brad Lidge. He’s like a brother to me. And without him the Phillies wouldn’t be playing October baseball right now. But he pitched in 69 innings this season. By comparison, CC Sabathia pitched in 130 innings during his half season in the NL. So I have a hard time giving the award to Lidge, this season’s most dominant reliever, when there are a handful of starters who had equally dominant seasons and pitched in far more innings.

For me, this boils down to a race between three guys: Brandon Webb, Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. Webb led the NL in wins, which is something he can feel good about. But it’s not something I value particularly highly. Santana led the league in ERA, which is a more important metric, but still not the end-all-be-all. Lincecum was second in wins and ERA, as well as VORP among NL pitchers, and he led the league in strikeouts by a lot, led the league in K/9 by a full run, led the league in pitching win shares and led the league in pitching runs created. He’s got my vote.

American League

In the AL it’s really a two horse race. And it’s a dead heat. Cliff Lee led the league in wins and ERA, was second in WHIP and was ninth in strikeouts. Roy Halladay led the league in WHIP, was second in ERA and wins and third in strikeouts. The two pitchers tied for the league lead in pitching runs created. They both had the same number of quality starts (23).

Maybe one of these pitchers benefited disproportionately from above average defensive support? In a word, no. Lee’s ERA, independent of the defense behind him, was 2.95, good for first in the AL. Halladay’s DIPS was 3.07, second in the league.

Halladay led the league in innings pitched. Lee was a distant second, 23 innings behind Halladay. Lee was also second in complete games, with 4. Halladay led the league in complete games with 9.

This really is a toss up. I’ll give it to Halladay, because he had a lot more strikeouts, which is the best result a pitcher can achieve, and he threw more complete games. But in a perfect world these two guys would share the award.

Yeah, I said it.

I was hoping to get through our What They Need series with no mention of his Bondsness. After all, practically ever other baseball website out there already has thirty versions of the apparently obligatory “Team X Needs Barry Bonds” article.

Moreover, I don’t think I’ve ever written one even semi-nice word about Barry Bonds. Nope, from me, it’s all been HGH this and asterisk that. And at first, I was glad that all thirty teams were shunning him. But then something strange happened.

Pity scuttled into my heart like a cockroach crawling into a warm, cozy kitchen.

Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte and Eric Gagne and two dozen other old juicers still get to play. And Barry Bonds has said he’ll play for the league minimum. Pro-rated.

That’s about 22 million fewer pro-rated dollars than fellow Mitchell Reportee Roger Clemens commanded last season. And I admit, it made me see things in a new light.

Which brings me back to the Blue Jays. A team with fantastic pitching and no offense. They rank 13th out of the 14 AL teams in runs scored. 12th in slugging. Dead last in home runs.

Their team OBP isn’t actually that bad—they rank 6th in the AL—they just can’t drive anyone in. Part of the problem is that Vernon Wells earlier spent a month on the DL with a cracked wrist bone (and was still the beleaguered team’s RBI leader when he returned). Now he’s going to miss another 4-6 weeks after straining a hamstring in last night’s game.

But their pitching, especially their starting pitching, has been solid–second in K’s, third in ERA, and fourth in opponents’ batting average. Plus, their staff easily leads the league with a 8 complete games—six for ace Roy Halladay, and one apiece for Jessie Litsch and Dustin McGowan. Alas, due to their somnolent offense, only 5 of these CG’s actually became W’s, thanks to a streak of three starts in which Halladay turned in a full game of work, but his team could muster only 4 total runs.

Now the Jays are 10.5 games out of first, tied with Baltimore for the cellar of the AL East, while the top three teams in the league—Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay—duke it out for supremacy. Would adding Barry Bonds catapult the Jays into contention among that group? Probably not. But it would help them win ballgames, and it would give their fans a reason to keep going to the ballpark. They might even escape the wrath of the MLBiverse for signing the black-listed Bonds by virtue of being Canadian.

Sure, I could sit here and recommend that they do something more useful, like sell off some of their studs for prospects. But this is JP Ricciardi we’re talking about, here, not Billy Beane.

Come to think of it, maybe what Toronto really needs is a new GM.

-What They Need Index-

I don’t purposely pick on White Sox GM Kenny Williams. I cannot deny that neither of the posts I had written about him in the past were very complimentary, which I guess is kind of like saying that The Two Coreys will undoubtedly rocket these two fine gentlemen back to super-stardom where they belong (They’re both understatements. Get it? No? Let’s move on). But I will admit that so far in 2008, the Chicago White Sox have been better than I had them pegged to be, thanks to some very surprisingly effective pitching. And I should give the guy some credit for this. So Kenny, I underestimated you and your club (*quietly whispers* i still don’t think you guys will win though… *cough*).

So why am I even mentioning Kenny? Well, upon hearing the news that A’s prospect Fautino De Los Santos had undergone Tommy John surgery this week, it reminded me of something.

You see, De Los Santos is a 22-year old pitcher who was traded by the Chicago White Sox to Oakland along with Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney in exchange for Nick Swisher during the winter. It was believed at the time that, while raw, his potential upside was higher than any of the other players involved in the deal. But the A’s shut him down in early May due to a sore elbow. And now it’s Tommy John, meaning that he’ll most certainly be out for the rest of the year, and may miss all of 2009 as well.

But this was reminiscent of another trade that the White Sox made back in 2001, when Mike Sirotka was sent packing as part of a deal that netted Kenny Williams David Wells from the Toronto Blue Jays. But Sirotka never threw a single pitch in a Toronto uniform, because his shoulder had been injured (torn labrum) before the deal ever happened. Kenny Williams (as first year GM) argued that Toronto was given all the medical reports they needed, and the Jays cried foul, claiming that vital information was withheld from them. The whole issue turned into a bit of a fiasco with the Jays appealing to Bud Selig to overturn the deal as a result. The Commish balked, essentially stating that while Chicago was very well aware of the poor state of Sirotka’s shoulder, that Toronto should have done their homework, which isn’t all that unreasonable, I suppose. As I understand it, the Jays front office did not make the trade pending a physical. It was only conducted after the trade was consummated. Oddly enough however, the first physical given by Toronto showed nothing irregular. It was only when they went for a second opinion to Dr. James Andrews that the problem was discovered. But Sirotka himself put it very nicely:

Sirotka said he was examined by White Sox doctors in early January and given a cortisone shot. He was told to let team doctors know if there was any discomfort after 10 days, but was traded.

“At the time I was getting examined, I didn’t think there was much to worry about because they didn’t seem too concerned,” Sirotka told the Sun-Times. “But one of my first reactions after being traded was I must really be hurt because I didn’t think the trade made much sense.”

It should also be noted that another player that went to Toronto in that deal, pitcher Mike Williams, was also injured before arriving in Canada, but Chicago argued ignorance on that one. According to Kenny WIlliams himself:

“After the deal, Mike Wiliams calls our minor-league trainer and says, ‘Hey, by the way, I went on my own this offseason and had an MRI. Basically what it showed is that I’ve got a bone bruise through some sort of dislocation.’

“Our trainer reported that to me. I reported that to Toronto. The player went and did this on his own. We had no knowledge of it. The doctor said it would be a month before the bone bruise could heal. I don’t know that that has changed.

“When I asked Toronto about the problem, they were very vague. I said, ‘Please do this. Send the information to our trainer so we can take a look at it ourselves, but let us know what the problems are.’ If there’s a problem, it’s a completely separate issue from Sirotka. I don’t know what Mike (Williams) was doing. He wasn’t forthright with us. It’s just a very bad coincidence.

“I did inform Gord that if there’s a problem with Mike Williams more than what the player told us, then in good faith we will go back and agree on how to make that right. That’s not at issue.”

Believe it or not, there’s more. Back in 2006, the Philadelphia Phillies also received a pitcher that was injured prior to a trade. And yes, he came from Chicago’s South Side. The acquisition of Freddy Garcia was initially considered a pretty good move for the Phils, who was in need of an “innings-eater”. And Garcia certainly fit the bill, making Philadelphia contenders going into 2007. But right at the onset of spring training, something was apparently wrong. By mid-March, there was talk of him starting the year on the disabled list.  Of course, the Phillies went on to win the NL East last year, but none of the credit went to Garcia, who made 11 starts, compiled a 5.90 ERA, and won 1 game. He made his final start on June 8th and underwent season ending surgery in August. It would come to light that Garcia had been receiving cortisone shots in his shoulder, although the pitcher denied this despite his own agent admitting its veracity.

Again, it was a case of a team (this time, the Phillies) not doing their homework. They had relied on the White Sox’ own medical reports to inform them before pulling the trigger on the deal. It was really only after the injury became apparent that people inside the game talked openly about how Garcia’s fastball had lost velocity before the trade even happened. I’m not sure where these opinions were before his shoulder exploded as a Phil, but they were loud and clear by June of ‘07. Sure, in retrospect, the numbers posed a bunch of red flags, especially his strikeout rates in ‘05 and ‘06. But I can’t find one instance where a columnist or analyst pointed this out to be problematic at the time the deal went down. Either way, it was yet another situation where the Chicago White Sox were able to unload a pitcher with a pre-existing injury.

This is not to say that Fautino De Los Santos was damaged goods before he was traded. I have no idea if this was the case and am not making an accusation. But this is now the third incident in Kenny Williams’ tenure that something like this has happened - and that’s not even including the case of Mike Williams. So you have to wonder - will front offices become far more hesitant to even deal with Kenny Williams? And why aren’t they taking more precautions than they do?

So the Jays have gone ahead and eaten about $9 million by simply releasing Frank Thomas a day after benching him, apparently convinced that his recent 4-35 slump means that he is no longer the same player that he was last year, when he batted .277 and led the entire team with 26 HR and 94 RBI.

Well either that or they would rather eat $9 million now and get nothing than have to pay $19 million total including Thomas’s $10 million option for next year, which almost certainly would have vested if he had stayed with the Jays this year, since it only required 376 plate appearances to get locked in.

Actually, this decision is almost certainly more due to the latter reason. Which is a shame, because it seems like the Blue Jays are punishing Thomas for their bad decision to sign him to that deal, when he really wasn’t going to be in their plans.

The more one considers J.P. Riccardi’s track record as Blue Jays GM, the more one begins to wonder why he still has a job, as he never really seems to be able to figure out which direction he is headed, and this move is only the latest example.

Because looking at the numbers, Frank Thomas is almost certainly still the player he was last year, when he was a pretty valuable piece of the Blue Jays offense. His line-drive percentage is slightly down, but otherwise all of Thomas’s peripherials are right in line with last year, including his strikeout and walk rates, his pitches seen per plate appearance, his groundball rate, and his HR/flyball rate.

What is different this year is that his BABIP is at an unsustainably low .167. Given that Thomas posted a .377 OBP last season along with decent power, he should still be able to help an AL team in need of a DH, especially since he can probably be gotten for very cheap.

But given his age and the recent slump, and the fact that he can pretty much only DH, it is uncertain whether any other team will have room for him.

It would be really sad to see the future Hall-of-Famer have to go out like this, his great career uncelebrated and our final image of him being his getting rejected by the only team still playing in Canada.

Drunk, belligerent Al Reyes to arresting officer: “Don’t tase me, bro!” (DRaysBay)

In other booze news, Drunk Jays Fans is having a healthy debate about all those…drunk…Jays…fans. How apt.

El Lefty Malo has an intriguing suggestion for Barry Zito: send him down.

Fire Joe Morgan took their sarcastic snark to new heights yesterday with YouTube. Epic.

I love reading CenterField. This woman has gone above and beyond to bring us the video of Jonathan Papelbon’s asstastic Dunkin Donuts commerical. I have been waiting for this moment all week!

There’s a reason UmpBumper Nick didn’t join our fantasy league. “You guys have to understand, fantasy sports is like crack to me,” he confessed. “Once I start, I can’t stop.” Sound familiar to any of you? Well, here’s a way to save yourself from yourself. (RotoNation)

Edgar Renteria apparently likes getting booed now (”When the fans boo me, that’s real exciting”) reports the Boston Herald. That’s not what he said when he left Boston for the Braves, when he said that an early booing by Red Sox fans caused him to put too much pressure on himself. “I don’t know if [the fans] were looking for 30 homers, like Garciaparra in the past did, but it was crazy,” he kvetched at the time, adding “I had never been booed in my career.” We weren’t looking for thirty homers. We just didn’t want thirty errors.

The Red Sox and the homers they hit, from Me and Pedro. An excellent chuckle (at least for Sox fans).

Since 1956, only 5 pitchers have gone their first three starts without giving up a run. Today, tomorrow, and Sunday, three pitchers will try to match this feat—Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, and Kyle Lohse. Get the details from Baseball Reference’s Stat of the Day.

Doug Glanville’s writing a guest column for the NYT this season.

Also, there’s a Red Sox t-shirt buried under the new Yankee Stadium.

Thank you, that is all.

Free coffee and baseball: This is a match made in heaven, from Sarah’s point of view. Two notes: 1. Jose Canseco is worried that he’ll get poisoned via free coffee. 2. Jonathan Papelbon is advertising free coffee (with purchase of either a flatbread sandwich or a pizza) at Dunkin’ Donuts, available the day after the Red Sox win. Sounds a bit complicated to me—and it’s cheap of DD to exclude their own employees. Not to mention that Paps looks like a cheeseball in this photo. Why didn’t they just go with a real post-game shot?

Speed: the Blue Jays are going to be swiping more bags this season. And speaking of speed, I enjoyed watching the A’s relievers throw over to first with Jason Varitek standing on the bag. Yes, let’s make sure the 35-year old catcher doesn’t steal.

Fans: It just goes to show you that the Dodgers really do have a special relationship with their fans, as LA hurler Brad Penny warmed up with a lucky fan yesterday. Across town, Angels owner Arte Moreno bought souvenirs for several fans. And it seems that Baltimore’s long-suffering faithful are finally abandoning their ballclub. Just don’t get mad when the Sox come to town in May and bring their hordes of free-spending fans with them, transforming Camden Yards into Fenway South. The O’s need the revenue.

No-hitters: Yesterday, ESPN.com carried a teaser for the Chicago-Detroit game saying the Dontrelle Willis was throwing a no-no through five innings. To me, that’s just false advertising. Sure, it’s technically accurate to say that D-Train ended up one-hitting the White Sox, but it would perhaps be more descriptive to say that Willis went five innings, while walking seven and striking out none. It was the least dominant no-no bid I’ve ever watched. An outing more worthy of ESPN’s hype would have been Jake Peavy’s two-hit complete game or Manny Parra’s legit seven-strikeout no-hit bid, carried through five innings.

Reds Rookies: On the heels of Johnny Cueto’s stunning debut Thursday, another Reds rookie pitcher impresses today. Edinson Volquez has pitched five innings so far, with seven K’s and one earned run. He’s scattered three hits and two walks.

Sleep: The Red Sox really do need it. Their odyssey from Florida to Japan to California to Toronto is starting to tell, and it’s most readily apparent on defense. Boston has already committed two errors halfway through today’s game. They had two errors yesterday, too, and have racked up a number of sloppy near-errors over the past few games. They have a day off tomorrow and open Fenway Park on Tuesday.

The Blue Jays debuted their throwback uniforms last night, as they plan to do for every Friday home game this season. Behold:

They look a bit silly, but isn’t that just part of the fun? The Royals have also brought their powder blues back (though only from the waist up). Last year, the Padres busted out their old all-yellow duds. What other teams could bring back some kickass vintage duds? Let’s look at the contenders:

Read the rest of this entry »

This is one of a series of posts in which we throw cold water on each team’s pathetic offseason twiddlings while spraying champagne all over their ingenious winter machinations.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been stuck in a funk lo these last few years. They compete in a tough-as-nails division, dominated by two big-market teams, and they only crack the top two when something goes horribly wrong with one of those teams (such as when the Red Sox experienced disastrous injuries in 2006, allowing the Jays to beat them for second place by one game). And last year, despite heading into the season with a promising lineup, they themselves suffered injury after injury, apparently cursed by a vengeful swamp hag. Yet despite this, they managed to hang around second place in the AL East through the first half of the 2007 season, as the Yankees were similarly blighted. Unfortunately for Toronto, the Yankees then suddenly remembered, “Holy s—, we’re the New York f—ing Yankees!” and started winning again. And the Blue Jays finished the season 13 games out of first place.

What did the Jays do this offseason to try and break out of their perpetual state of mediocrity? The signed David Eckstein. Now, David Eckstein, though often treated as little more than a punchline by the average blogger, is not actually terrible. However, he’s not actually that good, either.

The other major move made by the Jays this winter was the acquisition of Scott Rolen in a one-for-one trade of third basemen, sending Troy Glaus to the Cardinals. Rolen, pissed off at Tony La Russa, waived his no-trade clause to get out of St. Louis. Glaus, whose tender feet didn’t enjoy playing half their games on turf, was just as happy to leave the Rogers Center. When healthy, the two are remarkably similar in their offensive output, but Rolen has struggled to stay on the field since a collision at first base that left him with nagging shoulder problems. Then there’s the question of how hard Rolen will play—certainly, La Russa got the impression he was dogging it. (But perhaps Eckstein, the intangibly gritty gamer that he is, will inspire similar intestinal fortitude in his fellow infielder. There. There’s your David Eckstein joke. I hope you enjoyed it.) At least Rolen will be an upgrade, defensively. But it’s the contracts carried by each of these men that render the deal a bit of a puzzle. As Paul put it in a recent email, “Glaus had one year at $12.75m left on his deal. So they sent him away and got back Rolen who has three years and $33m left. Why would you paint yourself into a corner like that when you had the ability to lose payroll?” Why indeed? And in a year when third basemen were either commanding lucrative contracts (A-Rod, Mike Lowell) or functioning as the centerpiece in the winter’s biggest trade (Miguel Cabrera), and you, J.P. Ricciardi, wanted to trade Troy Glaus, why would you trade him for a Scott Rolen when you could have gotten a couple of decent prospects with upside?

The Jays win just enough, apparently, to keep the FO from admitting defeat and deciding to rebuild. Yet they lose too much to make the playoffs. So they’re stuck. They’ve got one bonafide ace in Roy Halladay and a good No. 2 in AJ Burnett. The back of their rotation is better than most—and at least their 3, 4, and 5 pitchers are all young. Closer BJ Ryan, who had Tommy John surgery in May, says he’ll be ready to go by Opening Day. But even if Lyle Overbay and Rolen can both bounce back offensively this year, their lineup will still lack sufficient on-base, top-of-the-order types, and they could use another power bat. Their defense? No real complaints (though Eckstein is a downgrade at short). In fact, despite the holes in their roster, the Jays have enough youngish, decent talent—guys like Halladay, Burnett, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill—that if their farm system were stocked, they might have a chance to make a good run at the Wild Card in the next couple of years. But will the farm provide?

The Jays have some decent prospects in their system, but none are close enough to the bigs to help out in the near future. In fact, the organization’s most exciting youngsters can’t even drink legally. The best of these is outfielder Travis Snider, who just turned 20 on Groundhog Day. Baseball Prospectus describes him as “one of the top hitting prospects in baseball” who projects for “legitimate MVP-level numbers” in the future. That’s the good news. The bad? His flaws make his plate approach sound a bit like JD Drew to me (”could use more aggressiveness at the plate…currently works himself into poor hitter’s counts while letting not perfect–yet perfectly hittable–pitches go by”) and the hulking 245-pounder is not fast (he got caught stealing nine times in a row last year). In a perfect world, he’d be “a number-three hitter on a championship-level team, and a perennial All-Star.” However, he has yet to play above low-A ball. For better or for worse, he still has a ways to go. And after Snider, what has Toronto got? A talented 18-year old third base prospect (Kevin Ahrens); a solid, middle-of-the-rotation type lefty making the transition from a closer to a starter and aiming for AA ball by the end of the summer (Brett Cecil); a 19-year old with power but no natural defensive position position who has played all of 49 games in the Gulf Coast League (John Tolisano); and a good catching prospect who still strikes out too much (J.P. Arencibia).

All this leads me to believe that the Lansing Lugnuts will be a great team to watch this year. I wish I could say the same for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Acquisitions: Rod Barajas, C; David Eckstein, SS; Marco Scutaro, 3B; Buck Coats, RF; Scott Rolen, 3B

Losses: Josh Towers, SP; Troy Glaus, 3B

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

SS David Eckstein, 33 years old, 3 homers, .309 avg

1B Lyle Overbay, 31 years old, 10 homers, .240 avg

RF Alex Rios, 27 years old, 24 homers, .297 avg

DH Frank Thomas, 39 years old, 26 homers, .277 avg

2B Aaron Hill, 25 years old, 17 homers, .291 avg

CF Vernon Wells, 29 years old, 16 homers, .245 avg

3B Scott Rolen, 32 years old, 8 homers, .265 avg

C, Gregg Zaun, 36 years old, 10 homers, .242 avg

LF Reed Johnson, 31 years old, 2 homers, .236 avg

SP1 Roy Halladay, 30 years old, 225.1 IP, 3.71 ERA

SP2 AJ Burnett, 31 years old, 165.2 IP, 3.75 ERA

SP3 Dustin McGowan, 25 years old, 169.2 IP, 4.05 ERA

SP4 Jesse Litsch, 22 years old, 111.0 IP, 3.81 ERA

SP5a Shaun Marcum, 26 years old, 159.0 IP, 4.13 ERA

SP5b Gustavo Chacin, 27 years old, 27.1 IP, 5.60 ERA

CL BJ Ryan, 32 years old, 38 saves with a 1.37 ERA in 2006; he had 3 saves and 2 losses, with a 12.46 ERA in 2007.

Grade: D

What the Blue Jays have assembled here is not a bad team—if they played in the NL Central. Though the Toronto brass has promised to rebuild many times, they’ve yet to actually do so. I’m not asking for a drastic fire sale; they just need to stop acquiring mediocre hitters in their 30s. If they could face up to reality and unload a couple of their older players this year at the trade deadline, they could conceivably end up with some prospects who could actually help them in 2009 or 2010. But hoping for the two teams ahead of you to suddenly collapse—especially when those two teams have healthy farm systems and way more revenue than you do—is not a strategy.

Looking towards the future of the division, with the Devil Rays ascendant and the Orioles finally starting a rebuilding process of their own, if the Jays keep on their current path, they will soon be recalling their days in third place with fond nostalgia.

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

Tampa Bay _____ Rays - Hoary wisdom

The Tampa Bay Rays have been quietly improving under the radar over the past couple of years. 2007 saw a couple of things bounce their way—finally—mostly thanks to the breakout year had by Carlos Pena. The one thing they have always really lacked is starting pitching, which should be less of a problem next year. So what do they still need to put them over the top? First, a solid bullpen, at least to save poor Scott Kazmir’s sanity. And second, veteran leadership. Sure, it’s great to have a lot of young talent and get excited about what they could do. But you need to have at least one guy in the clubhouse who can do the Crash Davis thing when necessary. Isn’t Tony Clark still available?

Baltimore Orioles - Cloning technology

The Baltimore Orioles are already a step ahead of last year, since at least they seem to have approached this hot stove season with something approaching a strategy. The O’s now need to keep dumping salary wherever and whenever they can; to move Erik Bedard before his value deteriorates; and to acquire other teams’ prospects willy-nilly. And wherever Nick Markakis came from, they need more of that.

Toronto Blue Jays - Medical breakthroughs

Speaking of Bedard, boy could the Jays use him. Their pitching staff—and in fact, most of their roster—is the definition of mediocre. Last year, they looked pretty good on paper, before their roster imploded with injuries. But this year, I look at their team and don’t see a lot of upside (newly acquired Scott Rolen is no exception). Add a pitcher? Add a big bat? Sure. Add anything. Add something. At least let the current crop of big-salary-middle-of-the-road types play out their contracts while you get a farm system in order. But considering last year’s season, maybe the one thing Toronto should add if they want to make the playoffs is some really, really good team doctors.

New York Yankees - A scary starting pitcher, or, failing that, a healthy one

In October, the Yankees folded primarily because of limited starting pitching (well, that and A-Rod’s Octoberitis and Derek Jeter’s sudden propensity for hitting into double plays). Now January is half over and the New York Yankees still need solid starting pitching. Chien-Ming Wang anchored their rotation this year, winning 19 games and barely missing the 200 innings mark. Pettitte will return as No. 2, coming off a 15-win, 200+ innings season. However, Pettitte’s ERA last year cleared the 4.00 mark, which isn’t exactly lights-out. Of greater concern is Mike Mussina, who finished the year with an ERA over 5.00. The big gamble for New York is on their young arms: Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes—who came up to great fanfare last year, only to go down with an injury almost immediately. All three younguns will be on strict innings limits. When October rolls around again, will they have enough left in the tank to make it to the postseason? And assuming they bash their way into the playoffs, do they have the dominant, ace-caliber pitching you need to reach the World Series? Right now, the answer is no.

Boston Red Sox - A craving for Coco

The World Series Champs already look pretty good for next year. They need to think about 2011. A few of their key players are oh-ell-dee old. The hardest to replace will be catcher and team captain Jason Varitek. Boston is still looking for takers for Coco Crisp, and I would love to see them deal him for a catching prospect. The Red Sox have no one inspiring coming up at the position, and will be lucky if Jason Varitek clears .250 over the next three years (assuming he accepts Boston’s 2-year, $20 mill offer of a contract extension). I’d hate to see them deal Coco, who is a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder with excellent speed and offensive upside, for just anyone. But Ellsbury is the Boston CF of the future, and Coco is not a fourth outfielder. If they can’t get a young catcher for him, well, bullpen help is always nice. But I worry that if Crisp languishes in Boston another half-season as a backup, he’ll just end up…soggy.

I know we are supposed to be talking all Mitchell Report, all the time, but I just wanted to take a moment out to ask: is anyone besides me surprised that David Eckstein just signed with the Toronto Blue Jays for only 1 year, $4.5 million?

I mean, for weeks it has been widely reported that Eckstein has been seeking a 4-year, $36 million dollar contract, and has been comparing himself favorably to Julio Lugo. I’m not sure anyone really expected Eckstein to get that kind of money, but it seemed reasonable to expect that he would at least get something in the ballpark of $7-8 million a year.

While it’s true that Eckstein has been sort of a running joke in the sabermetric community, it seemed reasonable to assume that someone would give him more money than Paul Lo Duca. After all, this is a guy who is legendary for his “intangibles,” “character,” and “grit,” beloved by the mainstream press, was a key member of two World Series winning squads, has a World Series MVP on his resume, and batted a career high .309 last season.

Although Eckstein did have some injury woes last season, appearing in only 117 games, he seems to be perfectly healthy now, and I figured that SOME team would give him a reasonably excessive contract, especially given the always high demand for middle infielders.

All in all, I’d have to say this is actually a pretty smart deal for the Blue Jays, given the price. Although incumbent shortstop John McDonald was one of the better fielding shortstops in baseball last season, he was absolutely abominable at the plate, maintaining his horrendous career 4:1 K:BB ratio while posting a seppuku-worthy .279 OBP and hitting only 1 home run all season.

Eckstein can be expected to improve on McDonald’s OPB by almost 100 points, so even despite the hit the Jays take on defense, he represents a huge upgrade at shortstop, at an extremely modest price. And with only a one-year deal, the Jays are not locked in to Eckstein’s later-30s decline years, and can look for an even better option at short next offseason.

So even though the Blue Jays are typically thought of as a “Moneyball” type team which would not be expected to sign anti-Moneyball poster-boy David Eckstein, cheers to JP Riccardi for pulling of this very reasonable, even ingenious move.

Think of it this way: the Red Sox are going to pay Julio Lugo $10 million next season. Was Eckstein really so crazy to compare himself to Lugo? Given that Lugo and Eckstein are actually about the same on most defensive metrics, who would you rather have batting in your lineup? 32-year-old Eckstein and his .351 career OPB plus 5 million extra dollars, or 32-year-old Julio Lugo and his career .333 OBP, minus $5 million?