Over the last few years Toronto Blue Jays fans have learned the hard way that in the AL East, there’s no point to being “pretty good.”

Seemingly every season, the Jays have ended with more wins than losses, and seemingly every season they’ve missed the playoffs.

Last season Toronto finished with a sub-.500 record for the first time in five seasons, but that was due more to bad luck than bad play, as the team’s Pythagorean record (expected wins and losses, based on the number of runs scored and allowed) was actually more like 83-78.

Edwin Encarnacion likes to get dirty, but can't field.

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos could have hoped for better luck this season and a return to winning baseball. But really, what would have been the point? When you’re competing with the Red Sox and the Yankees, you’re either great or you’re golfing in October. And the Blue Jays would have needed an unprecidented string of favorable bounces to top either the Sox and Yanks in 2010.

So Anthopoulos did what he had to do, and he started before the 2009 season ended, trading frequently injured 3B Scott Rolen to the Reds and landing a great return. Fangraphs’ Erik Manning wrote, “Toronto must be be ponying up a lot of cash. Even if they are, I still can’t quite wrap my head around this.” Here’s what Manning had to say about Zachary Stewart, the centerpiece of the deal:

Zachary Stewart is the “get” of the trade. He has a 92-95 MPH fastball with good sink and a hard cutting 82-85 MPH slider. He’s quickly climbed the ladder, pitching at High-A, Double-A and now Triple-A this season, and has a cumulative 2.92 FIP in 92 innings pitched. He pitched mostly out of the bullpen last year but is showing some good promise as a starter. He’s a solid B grade pitcher.

Anthopoulos was just getting warmed up. This winter he did what his predecessor JP Riccardi couldn’t; he traded Roy Halladay. In return the Jays acquired at least two badly-needed top 50 prospects in SP Kyle Drabek and 1b/DH Brett Wallace, as well as C Travis d’Arnaud. It was a solid return for a pitcher the Jays had little hope of retaining after 2010.

Just like that the Jays breathed new life into baseball’s worst farm system, landing a talented crop of players (Drabek, Stewart, Wallace, d’Arnaud) who all could be ready for the big leagues this season.

But still, Anthopoulos wasn’t done. The Blue Jays acquired pitcher Brandon Morrow from the Mariners for reliever Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez. Morrow was drafted fifth overall by the Mariners in ‘06, and still has the potential to be an ace, despite a a few serious injuries thus far in his career. MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes thought the Jays came out ahead on the trade:

The Blue Jays come out ahead on this one.  Morrow is an obvious health risk, but he still has frontline starter potential.  It’s a gamble worth taking at the cost of a reliever and a prospect.

After all his wheeling and dealing, Anthopoulos also spent $10.5M on a smattering of free agents, including the slick fielding John McDonald, who will be a utility infielder, and the always disappointing RP Kevin Gregg, who is the leading candidate to close games for the Jays (at least until his craptastic pitching forces them to find somebody else).

Toronto is still somewhat hamstrung by Vernon Wells’ awful contract. The team’s rotation is young and you can expect them to struggle even more this season without Halladay to take the ball every fifth day. Edwin Encarnacion is nobody’s idea of a longterm solution at third base, and Jose Bautista (so far) hasn’t shown the power to justify a corner outfield spot.

The Blue Jays aren’t going to make the playoffs in 2010. But thanks to the moves Anthopoulos made this winter, there’s hope for 2011 and beyond.

Grade: B+

Lost: SP Roy Halladay, SS Marco Scutaro, C Rod Barajas, P Brandon League, 1B Kevin Millar, RP Brian Wolfe, UT Joe Inglett, SS Brian Bocock, OF Russ Adams, C Michael Barrett

Added: SP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d’Arnaud, 1B/DH Brett Wallace, P Brandon Morrow, SS John McDonald, SS Alex Gonzalez, RP Kevin Gregg, C John Buck.

Projected lineup:

C: John Buck
1B: Lyle Overbay/Brett Wallace
2B: Aaron Hill
SS: John MacDonald/Alex Gonzalez
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
RF: Jose Bautista
CF: Vernon Wells
LF: Travis Snider
DH: Adam Lind/Brett Wallace

Projected rotation and closer:

SP1: Ricky Romero
SP2: Sean Marcum
SP3: Brandon Morrow
SP4: Marc Rzepczynski
SP5: Brett Cecil/Kyle Drabek

CL: Kevin Gregg/Jason Frasor/Scott Downs

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

The Toronto Blue Jays already got what they really needed when former general manager JP Ricciardi was fired after the season. We here at Umpbump had been arguing for the Jays to make a bold move — namely, trade Roy Halladay — for a long time; but every year, ol’ JP would insist that the Jays just needed a lucky break and they’d be postseason-bound. So we got inspired moves like swapping Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen. (Deft!)

Anyway, now that the Jays have their new GM, all they need to do now is finally pull the trigger on the Halladay trade. And for that, they’ll need a stiff drink.

Halladay is the aciest of aces — dominant and durable. It makes sense that Alex Anthopoulos would want to get the most for him that he possibly can, including both pitching and hitting. But at the same time, Doc only has a year left on his current deal and wants a contract extension in exchange for waiving his no trade clause. Currently, the Phillies, Angels, and — ulp — Yankees are the only three teams with a realistic shot of landing him, according to the latest reports. And according to those reports, the Jays are asking nearly as much for Halladay now as they were last summer under Ricciardi.

The Phillies are prepared to offer J.A. Happ, plus either Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown; another source said they wouldn’t rule out dealing Cole Hamels. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels offered Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and Peter Bourjos. And the Jays would want either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain to be part of a deal with New York (they’ve also reportedly requested Jesus Montero). Ed Price of AOL’s FanHouse tweeted that the Jays preferred minor leaguers to major leaguers in a deal, however, which makes sense to me; they need to get as many young, high-ceiling players as possible in their system, since their timeline back to competitiveness is not short. Commentators have listed their long-term needs as outfielders, corner infielders, and a long-term solution at shortstop. Of course, as always, it never hurts to have pitching. That’s, um, sort of everything. And though he can pitch back-to-back shutouts, Halladay can’t actually solve all those problems himself.

JP was never satisfied with the offers he got for Halladay, so he never made a deal. But with the Jays in full rebuilding mode, Anthopoulos must do so, even if he never gets the perfect package in return. We’re not talking about true love, here — just baseball. And sometimes that means settling. So Alex Anthopoulos should pour himself a stiff one and let Doc ride off into the sunset.

-What They Need index-

The recent move by Alex Rios from the Blue Jays to the White Sox via a waiver claim is a win for both sides.

The Blue Jays get rid of an albatross of a contract which they had to get out from under if they are going to have any chance of competing going forward, and the White Sox get the one thing they have been searching for in vain for years on end: a viable option in center field.

Sure, the White Sox are overpaying, but unlike the Jake Peavy deal, in which they had to overpay *and* give up premium prospects, to get Rios the Sox did not have to give up any young, cost-controlled talent, so if they play their cards right they will be more than making up for the extra money they are paying Rios by making good use of the talent they did not give up.

But the bottom line is that beggars can’t be choosers. The Sox desperately needed a centerfielder, and Rios is a legit defender in center, with his career 12.8 UZR/150 as a centerfielder, and his cannon arm: since 2004 only Jeff Francoeur and Alfonso Soriano have more outfield assists than Rios’s 55.

Moreover, Rios’s bat will play in center, given his underappreciated defensive talents. The problem for the Blue Jays is that they were playing him in right, due to the even-more-of-an-albatross contract they’d given to Vernon Wells.

But more than just finally giving the South-siders a CF, the move also gives Kenny Williams all kinds of options.  The money owed to Peavy and Rios isn’t really that big a deal, given that if the Sox want, they can clear tons of salary this offseason by letting both Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye walk as free agents, if they want to.

Given Kenny’s enduring fondness for the kind of veterans who got him a ring in 2005, I see a much more likely scenario as being the Sox picking up Dye’s option and resigning Thome to a cheaper deal, if he’s willing, or else, picking up Dye, letting Thome walk, and moving Dye to DH, and leaving an outfield of Scott Podsednik, Rios, and Carlos Quentin.

But in any case, the Rios acquisition combined with Dye’s option gives Kenny a lot of flexibility this offseason to see what’s out there and pursue a wide variety of pieces which he can then shift around to fit different combinations.  By finally filling the gaping hole in center, Rios makes this possible.

As for the Jays, the problem wasn’t so much Rios’s deal in isolation, as the fact that the team was on the hook for at least *four* seemingly un-movable contracts, at positions that are normally the easiest to fill on the free agent market, severely restricting flexibility and completely hindering the team’s ability to retool. In actuality, Rios’s contract was probably the least bad of the four (the others being Wells, Rolen, and Overbay), but given the overall situation, and the fact that Wells is absolutely never ever going anywhere ever, moving Rios if at all possible can only help the team going forward.

In today’s market, Rios’s annual salary can probably sign 3 players who can put up similar production, and given that the Jays were clearly not going to win with the present model, given the division they play in, breaking up the team in some way, no matter how, is the only way to go.

People may wonder why a deal that was so bad for the Jays could be so good for the Sox, but it all comes down to context – the Sox play in a winnable division in which they already have a relatively strong team, desperately needed a centerfielder, and have upcoming payroll flexibility, whereas the Jays play in the AL East, which now has three other juggernauts, had a lot of bad contracts all at once, and have less payroll flexibility in general due to lower revenues and the Canadian dollar.

Man, Buster Olney has been strongly advocating that the Phillies trade for Roy Hallady. I mean, he’s really pushing for it. You’d think he was a Phillies fan. Or maybe he has money riding on this or something?

Today, Olney gives us not one, not two, but eight reasons the Phils should acquire the Toronto ace. I’d like to take issue with this one:

Halladay could help make Hamels even better than he is. Halladay’s workout regimen is legendary, and you hear stories from guys who played with the Blue Jays about how Halladay’s approach rubbed off on them. He was a constant reminder to them of how they could be better, both in their preparation and in their conditioning, and even in how they would conduct themselves.

That reason implies that Hamels could stand to improve his conditioning. But I’d like point you to a post I did before the 2008 season, which linked to a story in the Philadelphia Inquirer about Hamels’ daily routine. From the Inky:

Hamels does his back program seven days a week and he’s obsessive about it. It lasts about two hours, though he may shorten it during the season. In a typical day, Hamels does 500 crunches. (No wonder his body fat is a minuscule 6 percent.) When he’s done working on his back, he moves to the baseball portion of his day and finishes with an ice bath.

“I’ll look in the mirror before bed and ask myself, ‘Did I do all I can do?’ ” Hamels said. “I’ll do 500 crunches and wonder if it’s enough. I feel guilty if I don’t feel like I’ve done enough. I get paranoid.”

500 crunches. Two hours of back exercises. 6 percent body fat.

Maybe Halladay would be good for the Phillies (how could he not be?). But I’d say Hamels’ fitness is not an issue.

Jon Heyman Tweets:

halladay preferences (according to pal): 1. win. 2. quiet. 3. spring in fla.; thinks he’d OK Phil, Stl, NY, Bos, etc. #MLB

Doc wants to go someplace quiet and his four candidates include New York, Boston and Philly? That makes sense.

Yesterday, we learned that the Jays will listen to offers for Roy Halladay, who is pretty much the most bad-ass pitcher on the planet.

I think there are several compelling reasons why the Rays should trade for Halladay, and a couple reasons why they won’t.

Why they should:

1. According to J.P. Ricciardi, via WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, he apparently wouldn’t hesitate to deal to an AL East competitor. So there’s no barrier there.

2. SI’s Jon Heyman hears that the Jays may want a top SS prospect for the Doc, and the Rays have no shortage os shortstops. There’s Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist and the organization’s top prospect, Tim Beckham. So who needs SS Reid Brignac? Why not include him in a deal to land Halladay?

3. Riccardi has insinuated that he wants a bigger package than the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira. That’s probably just posturing, but if any organization is deep enough to put together a comparable package, it’s the Rays. The Braves sent rookie catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and four minor-leaguers to Texas, including slick-fielding shortstop Elvis Andrus and three pitchers: right-hander Neftali Feliz, left-hander Matt Harrison and left-hander Beau Jones. Saltalamacchia and Andrus were rated as the Braves’ top prospects before they were dealt. The Rays could send Brignac and a couple of pitchers — maybe David Price and Jeff Niemann? That would be a pretty great haul, and one that few organizations could match.

4. Even if the Rays lost Price and Niemann, they could promote Wade Davis, who is ready for his shot at the big show having struck out 75 batters in 90 innings in triple-A Durham this season with a 2.90 ERA.

5. The Rays have the best run differential in the AL, yet they’re in third place, 5.5 games behind the first place Red Sox. Acquiring Halladay would help them make up ground in a hurry. Imagine a rotation that boasts Halladay, Shields, Kazmir and Garza. That’s just whacky.

6. The Rays are poised for a big second half. Pat Burrell, Jason Bartlett and Kazmir are back from the DL. BJ Upton’s shoulder is finally healthy. The time is now.

7. Halladay has $7MM left on his 2009 salary, and will make $15MM next season. That’s a lot of money, but the Rays can count on selling a lot of Halladay jerseys once the world’s best pitcher joins the team. Plus, think of all the money they’ll make selling playoff tickets!

Why they won’t:

1. Halladay probably wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause unless the Rays guaranteed him an extension. And the Rays, who are not a big market team, probably don’t want to make that kind of longterm investment.

2. Halladay, a groundball pitcher, must pine for the opportunity to escape Toronto’s turf. So he’d probably be less than excited about moving to the only other turf field in the majors (the Twins will go grass in 2010).

What do you think? Should the Rays trade for Halladay?

This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

Piping hot from the Department of Small Sample Size, Blue Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro, of all people, has a .927 OPS one month into the season.

Many people have noticed his eye-popping 5 home runs in a single month, but considering that his previous career high for an entire season is a mere 9 homers, the power surge is not very likely to continue.

But what is more interesting is that one month in, Scutaro already has 22 walks, good for second best in the Major Leagues, behind only Jason Bay’s 23.

Now walks are usually considered something that is pretty much under a batter’s control – far more than batting average or even homers – and thus less susceptable to the whims of sample size.

What makes Scutaro’s walk total so amazing is that he was never all that much of a walker before – his highest single season total was 57, set last year, and his career 162-game average is a mere 52.

But at present, the 33-year-old Scutaro is on pace to walk 149 times this year, which is the kind of walk rate that would put a man up there with the all time greats.

Look, nobody expects Scutaro to keep putting up Pujols-like numbers all year.  But if he really has turned a corner with his pitch selection or is seeing the ball better or something, than that actually might explain some of the increased home runs, and it also means that even as Scutaro regresses back to the mean, he probably won’t regress all the way.

Because walks are more skill than luck, and Scutaro may have developed a new skill.

And considering that he plays shortstop, he doesn’t even have to keep putting up Pujols numbers to be an extremely valuable player, which makes it look like the Blue Jays got a steal in a player they essentially got from the Oakland A’s for a box of crackerjacks.