Brad Lidge says he’s been unlucky in 2009:

“The ball is not bouncing the right way,” Lidge said after a messy ninth inning resulted in a 4-3 loss to Atlanta at Turner Field yesterday. “Last year, it bounced the right way every time, and this year it has not.”

Has Lidge been unlucky? Yes. Far more fly balls are finding their way over the fence this season. Lidge’s HR/FB is an absurdly high 17.2 percent. Last year it was an amazingly low 3.2 percent.

But here’s the problem: even if Lidge were catching all the breaks, he’d still be having a terrible season. Lidge’s walk rate is way up (5.32 BB/9 in 2009 compared to 4.54 BB/9 in 2008) and his strikeout rate is way down (9.55 K/9 in 2009 compared to 11.54 K/9 in 2008).

Also, while a higher percentage of his flyballs are leaving the park, he’s also giving up more flyballs. And that’s a recipe for disaster if I’ve ever heard one. As a result Lidge has given up 10 HR in 2009, compared to only 2 in 2008. And we’ve still got 45 or so games left.

What is at the root of Lidge’s decline?

As Rob Neyer says, “When a player’s performance deviates radically from expectations, we can figure it’s either because of an injury or the vagaries of chance.” Lidge insists he’s healthy, but he said the same thing right up unto the point where the Phils put him on the DL with a knee injury earlier this season. It could be that he’s pitching in pain and he simply doesn’t want to talk about it.

Then again, because this is Lidge, we have to entertain the idea that his struggles are due to neither an injury or bad luck. It could be this is all in his notoriously fragile head.

Only Lidge knows.

During Sunday night’s Phillies-Braves game on ESPN, Steve Phillips mentioned that the league is teeing off on Lidge’s fastball. I mentioned that to Paul in an email, and here’s what he said:

It’s not that guys are teeing off his fastball so much as he’s throwing more fastballs because his slider has become problematic. His slider was worth 17 runs above average last year. This year, it’s -0.9. And consequently, he’s using his fastball more often, which never was a good pitch to begin with, and is losing velocity.

Before this year, Lidge’s best seasons have come when he threw at least 43% sliders. When he dipped below that, he got into trouble. But now that slider has just become ineffective so no matter how many he throws, it doesn’t matter much anymore. I’m not saying he’s done – he could be injured. But he probably won’t be a reliable option for the rest of the year.

One thing is for sure. In 2009, Lidge has found new ways to lose. Over the weekend, he committed two errors on a Matt Diaz sacrifice in the ninth inning to become the fifth player in the last 55 years to be charged with two errors, a blown save and a loss in the same contest.

I don’t know if Lidge’s problems are mental or physical. I just know I’m tired of watching him blow games. And so is everyone else in Philly.

When columnists start advocating the Phils trade for Billy Wagner, you know times are tough.

Charlie Manuel: He managed the Indians to the playoffs in 2001, but lost to the Mariners in the first round after taking a 2-games-to-1 lead. In his first season, Manuel and the Phillies went 88–74, only one game back of the Wild Card. In 2006, Manuel and the Phillies finished just short of the playoffs once again, this time three games back of the wild card. Last year, the Phillies won the NL East, but were swept in the postseason by the Mets Rockies. Manuel isn’t considered a master tactician, but he’s earned a reputation as a Bobby Cox-style manager who keeps his players on an even keel, even in tough times.

Ryan Howard: He has no home runs and only one RBI in the playoffs this year. And while his OBP is a stellar .438, his batting average is only .185. Simply put, Howard needs to start hitting the ball. He showed signs of breaking out of his slump last night, hitting a double in his first at bat and stroking a ground ball single in his next plate appearance. This could be a sign of big things to come…or just a big tease.

Jimmy Rollins: He’s hitting .375 with a .412 OBP in the playoffs, but in the World Series he’s 0 for 10. That won’t last. It can’t last. Can it?

Brad Lidge: The Phillies’ closer is perfect in save opportunities this year. But how long can he keep this up? He’s got to blow one eventually, right?

Steve Phillips: He picked the Phillies to win in seven games, saying, “The Phillies win because of the quality and predictability of their ace, Cole Hamels, and their bullpen.” Of course, Phillips has been wrong before. Very wrong. Very often. He picked the Mariners to not only win the west this year, but to win 92 games (they won 61). But Phillips is bound to get one right eventually, right? The law of large numbers seems to be in his favor.

I’m not going to waste your time with a big lead in. Game 2 between the Phillies and Dodgers starts in an hour. So let’s get right to it.

National League

I love Brad Lidge. He’s like a brother to me. And without him the Phillies wouldn’t be playing October baseball right now. But he pitched in 69 innings this season. By comparison, CC Sabathia pitched in 130 innings during his half season in the NL. So I have a hard time giving the award to Lidge, this season’s most dominant reliever, when there are a handful of starters who had equally dominant seasons and pitched in far more innings.

For me, this boils down to a race between three guys: Brandon Webb, Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. Webb led the NL in wins, which is something he can feel good about. But it’s not something I value particularly highly. Santana led the league in ERA, which is a more important metric, but still not the end-all-be-all. Lincecum was second in wins and ERA, as well as VORP among NL pitchers, and he led the league in strikeouts by a lot, led the league in K/9 by a full run, led the league in pitching win shares and led the league in pitching runs created. He’s got my vote.

American League

In the AL it’s really a two horse race. And it’s a dead heat. Cliff Lee led the league in wins and ERA, was second in WHIP and was ninth in strikeouts. Roy Halladay led the league in WHIP, was second in ERA and wins and third in strikeouts. The two pitchers tied for the league lead in pitching runs created. They both had the same number of quality starts (23).

Maybe one of these pitchers benefited disproportionately from above average defensive support? In a word, no. Lee’s ERA, independent of the defense behind him, was 2.95, good for first in the AL. Halladay’s DIPS was 3.07, second in the league.

Halladay led the league in innings pitched. Lee was a distant second, 23 innings behind Halladay. Lee was also second in complete games, with 4. Halladay led the league in complete games with 9.

This really is a toss up. I’ll give it to Halladay, because he had a lot more strikeouts, which is the best result a pitcher can achieve, and he threw more complete games. But in a perfect world these two guys would share the award.

Baseball Prospectus has a formula called Secret Sauce that they use to predict who will play in the World Series. The formula focuses in on three criteria: 1. Pitchers that strike out batters. 2. A stud closer. 3. A good defense.

Here’s how SI’s John Donovan describes the formula:

The “Secret Sauce,” as BP call its concoction, has worked out pretty well over the years by bypassing some of the more common stats and digging deeper. The Sauce not only takes into account a pitching staff’s strikeout rates, for example, but it adjusts that number based on league differential and ballpark factors.

The Phillies and Red Sox, for what it’s worth, have the highest secret sauce rankings among National League and American League teams, respectively (though it’s worth noting that there were several American League teams with better Sauce scores than Philadelphia). Moreover, the Phils have two pitchers in the top 30 in the majors in K/9. Both Hamels and Myers average almost 8 strikeouts per nine innings. Jamie Moyer averages 5.64 K/9. Blanton averages a shade over 5.

If the Dodgers are going to beat the Phillies, they are going to have to overcome Philly’s pitching, which has miraculously morphed from a weakenss to a strength seemingly overnight. Specifically, they’ll have to:

1. Hit home runs off Brett Myers. During the first half of the season, Myers gave up 24 homers in 101 innings. After a brief minor league tour he returned and only gave up five home runs in 88 innings. Myers’ second half resurrection had everything to do with his ability to keep the ball in the park. The Dodgers need to swing for the fences.

2. Make the Phils’ starters throw pitches. That’s how the Brewers beat Jamie Moyer in Game 3. I’m not sure if playoff strike zones are smaller, but it sure seemed that way to Moyer on Saturday. If the Dodgers can get to the Philadelphia bullpen early, they’re golden. The Phils’ bullpen was solid all season, but showed signs of fatigue down the stretch. Chad Gaudin Durbin and Brad Lidge are running on fumes. Lidge, in particular, is building towards his own Mitch Williams moment.

3. Don’t pitch to Utley. He’s so due.

4. Start Clayton Kershaw. He’d be murder on the Phils’ lefty bats.

5. Don’t play Juan Pierre. Ever. Not even a little.

If you’re a loyal UmpBump reader (thanks!) then you would know that the staff likes sabermetrics. Well I would include myself in that bunch, except I’ve been slacking on the mathematics of it all, and don’t really know much about PECOTA, Runs Created, etc, except to say that it’s dense stuff.

Well, since I’m scheduled to pick my Cy Young candidates, I figured I might as well take a crack at this saber stuff and do some calculatin’ to backup my claims. So as to not diminish the value of my own criteria, I’ll take stats into consideration, but I deem it important to consider the overall success of the team. How will I determine this? Well, simple really, did the team make the playoffs, and/or what percentage did the pitcher’s wins constitute of the overall team victories.

National League

I decided to take a look at the senior circuit first, and from the start, there’s a handful of names constantly atop the stat categories: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Webb, and near the periphery, Dan Haren and Cole Hamels.

In my (humble) opinion, ERA and Wins (with a 200 IP minimum) are obligatory stat criteria to make a preliminary evaluation of pitchers. So looking at the top three in each, we narrow the list to: Santana (2.53, 16), Lincecum (2.62, 17), Dempster (2.96, 17), and Webb (3.30, 22). To further thin the list, lets take a look at some sabermetrics: Only Webb and Santana are in the top three in positive WPA (with Lincecum at a very close fourth), and in overall Win Probability Added, Lincecum lead the NL with a 4.59 index, followed by Santana, Dempster, and Webb.

With those two breakdowns in mind, we can take Dempster out of the list, and by looking at one more sabermetric, the player leverage index, we can eliminate Santana since his pLI is below 1. And lastly, lets look at each players win total and what percentage of his team’s wins it represents: The Giants won 72 games, meaning Lincecum’s 17 are equivalent to 23% of the wins. The Diamondbacks won 80 games, and Webb’s 22 have a 27.5% share of their wins.

Brad Lidge is my stud pick for NL Cy Young

Now, taking relievers into account, and paying close attention to the closers, out of those with more than 30 saves, only the Phillies’ Brad Lidge cracks the top 3 in WPA (5.37); meaning he’s the only one worthy of Cy Young consideration (again, IMHO).

It’s a close call. For one, neither the Diamondbacks or Giants made the playoffs, and the Phillies did advance to the NLCS, thanks in part to Lidge closing out the Brewers. Lidge did have a 1.95 ERA and pitched 69.3 innings, and even though his 41 saves didn’t lead the league (Jose Valverde had 44), they’re good for a second-place tie with the Giants’ Brian Wilson (oh, and by the way, he blew zero save opportunities).

If we follow our sabermetric gut instinct, he beat out Lincecum in overall WPA, so I think we’ve reached the conclusion that makes the most sabermetric sense: Brad Lidge gets my vote for NL Cy Young, with Lincecum second and Webb third.

American League

Cliff Lee was just that good; he's the AL Cy Young in my camp.

Keeping the dense matter to a minimum, let’s do the math for the junior circuit. So filtering the top three in ERA and Wins we get: Cliff Lee (2.54, 22), Roy Halladay (2.81, 20), John Lester (3.21, 16), and Mike Mussina (3.37, 20). It’s safe to eliminate Lester from the list based on the fact that the other three starters won 20 or more games. To further filter the list, only Lee and Halladay cracked the top three in WPA with 5.96 and 3.47 respective indexes.

Let’s not forget percentage of wins: Lee’s wins represented 27% of the Indians’ wins this year (81-81) while Halladay’s accounted for 23% the Blue Jays’ victories.

Again, to keep relievers in the mix, I’ll take a look at the top closer this year in the American League, Francisco Rodriguez. He set the record for saves in a regular season with 62, had a 2.24 era (only good for fourth best among relievers), but his WPA barely puts him in the top five, with a 3.33 index.

The Angels did make the post season, while the Indians had a very disappointing year, but Lee’s numbers were extremly good, far above the best; he only lost three games and won 71% of his starts. Had it not been for that sheer dominance I’d vote for Rodriguez, but Cliff Lee gets my vote for Cy Young in the AL, with Rodriguez second and Halladay third.

Like I said before, I hadn’t really used sabermetrics to gauge my appreciation of player performance, and considering it was my first time really looking at traditional stats mixed with sabermetrics to make an evaluation, I have to say I’m sold. That stuff does not lie.

It was lucky Week 13 in the UmpBump Fantasy League. Here’s what befell each of us:

Sarah: The Somerville Green Sox suffered a 9-2 beatdown at the hands of Box89RowKKSeat14, Ania’s team. Although, I have to say, neither of our offenses were very good this week. I only took the RBI category (by a single ribbie) and steals (which I won even though Jacoby Ellsbury hasn’t stolen a base since June 17). Of course, my pitching got lit up again, in what now feels like the norm for the Green Sox, especially Pedro Martinez, by the Yankees, and Matt Cain, by Cleveland. Thank the hardball gods that interleague play is over. Hot: Johnny Cueto, Ian Kinsler, Vernon Wells. Not: Martinez, Cain, Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, Rickie Weeks.

Paul: This week shouldn’t have been as close a match-up as it ended up being between myself and my fantasy-challenged colleague, Coley Ward. My players racked up a .423 OBP to Coley’s paltry .326 and I won total bases 123-97. Despite this, I still lost runs scored, tied in home runs, and barely won RBIs. So I’m not sure if it was a successful week offensively speaking. It was a mixed bag on the pitching side as well, having a dominant week in my peripheral categories (0.97 WHIP and 3.92 K/BB) but not having those numbers translate into victories in wins or ERA. In short, it was a week that proved the sabermetric axiom regarding sample sizes. No matter how successfully you execute – whether it be by getting on base and hitting for extra bases for batters or walking few and striking out many for pitchers – over a short period of time you may not get the desired result. But if my team can keep dominating those very categories, then I will be just fine over the long haul. Oh, and I ended up winning the week 6-4-2. So… Maybe I shouldn’t be complaining. Hot: David Wright, Adam “I Hate Baseball SO MUCH” Dunn, Matt Holliday, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Duchscherer, Cliff Lee. Not: Greg Smith, Trevor Hoffman, Chris B. Young.

Coley : Paul shouldn’t be complaining. He was lucky I didn’t beat him this week. Josh Hamilton came to the plate yesterday afternoon with the bases loaded and a chance to win the RBI column for the Crunkball All-Stars, but he popped out. And that was ok, because it was still a 3-1 game between the Phillies and the Rangers, still a save situation, and I figured that meant I’d get a save out of either Brad Lidge or C.J. Wilson and I’d win saves for the week. Unfortunately, the Rangers scored three more runs that inning and Wilson came in and pitched in a non-save situation. So Paul, you got lucky. Hot : Mark Teixeira, Jered Weaver, Jair Jurrjens, Dice-K. Not : Chone Figgins, Brett Myers.

Alejandro: I checked the standings early Sunday morning and I found myself down in the count, but definitely not out. I was knocked around all week, was up and down, but kept my head up, and lo and behold, the results are in. My offense surged on its last day and over came the difference for a solid 8-4 victory that places me 4.5 games out of first place. Jermaine Dye (who’s been on a torrid tear) helped the White Sox sweep the Cubs (along side Alexei Ramirez, who’s having a solid season himself). It’ll be a tough week ahead, though, as Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla, and Magglio Ordoñez are hurt. Hot: Hanley Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Alex Gordon (barely), Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Kerry Wood, B.J. Ryan. Not: Vicente Padilla, Todd Wellemeyer, Eric Chavez, Hunter Pence, A.J. Pierzynski.

Standings (games behind):

1. Paul – ElDuquesInjuryReport ( – )
2. Alejandro – Center Field Stud ( 4.5 )
3. Scott – Utley’s Firm Quads ( 6 )
4. Doug – Swamp Dragons ( 8.5 )
5. Sarah – Somerville Green Sox ( 14.5 )
6. Kirk – Montefusco’s Revenge ( 15 )
7. Ania – Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 20 )
8. Larry – croutchyoldman ( 27.5 )
9. Bryan – Pirates in ‘08! ( 29.5 )
10. Coley – Crunkball All-Stars ( 30 )
11. Caitlin – caitlin grace ( 32.5 )
12. Sooze – freebase my balls ( 34 )

There are two sides to every story. Take last night’s Phillies-Braves game, for example.

Here’s what Atlanta manager Bobby Cox had to say about the game:

"We gave it away," said manager Bobby Cox, whose Braves had won 18 of their previous 22 home games before losing this important series opener. "We didn’t lose it, we gave it [away]. Bad base-running, dropped a popup. …

And here’s what Phillies closer Brad Lidge had to say about the game:

"If you want things in the season to go good, you need to have some of those ‘Force be With You’ moments," Lidge said. "The Force was with us tonight."

The Braves had a 2-1 lead against Philadelphia and were one out from a win when second baseman Kelly Johnson inexplicably dropped a popup in the ninth inning. The ball squirted from his glove as a stunned crowd of 34,074 watched Eric Bruntlett race from second base to score the tying run for the Phillies, who scored twice in the 10th and hung on to win.

The Braves had won 18 of their previous 22 home games before losing last night. Atlanta almost came back to tie the game in the bottom of the tenth inning, but Shane Victorino threw out Yunel Escobar at the plate to end it.

Here’s what Lidge had to say about the play:

"(The last play) was so much fun to watch from my perspective. At first I thought there was no way, and then all of a sudden this absolute pea-rod comes in from Shane, on the money and everything. It just was perfect."

And here’s what Escobar had to say:

"I wasn’t thinking of going home," Escobar said through a translator. "But I saw the throw; that’s why I made the decision."

It’s unclear what Escobar saw that made him think it was a good idea to head for home. As AJC beat writer David O’Brien points out, "it was obvious from the time he took off for the plate that Escobar was going to be out, barring a terrible throw."

And Victorino’s throw was far from terrible. It was a freaking pea-rod!

1. The Phils couldn’t have done any better. Considering what was available on the free agent market (very little) and what Gillick was willing to part with (not much) this is a pretty good deal. Brad Lidge was once one of the game’s premier closers and has shown that he still can be.

The most important thing about this trade is that the Phillies dealt three guys with little potential for one guy with HUGE potential.

Who knows? Michael Bourn may one day be a star, but the best case scenario has him morphing into Juan Pierre, while the more realistic scenario has him becoming the next Endy Chavez.

I don’t know much about 3B prospect Mike Costanzo, but here’s what Baseball America has to say about him, via http://phuturephillies.com/category/players/mike-costanzo/:

He earned comparisons to Russell Branyan for his prodigious lefthanded power and erratic play at third base, where he committed 34 errors.

Costanzo evokes Branyan also for his strikeouts (157 in 508 at-bats), and his grooved swing will continue to produce holes that pitchers at advanced levels can exploit. He has the athletic ability to adjust and the raw power to hit homers even without squaring up the ball, but he must show the ability to make more adjustments and lay off pitches he can’t hit.

Defensively, Costanzo has the tools to play third, most notably a plus arm. But he has yet to make the adjustments that would make him an average defender. He lacks consistent footwork, and scouts question his agility and infield actions.

Not an inspiring description.

Finally, there’s Geoff Geary, who was shuttled between the bigs and the minors last season. He’s a back of the bullpen guy. A throw in. Whatevs.

2. Philadelphia is a tough place to pitch. If you’re not nervous about Brad Lidge’s mental makeup, than you must know something I don’t. If Lidge thought pitching in Houston was tough, wait until he gets to Philadelphia. Lidge is going to need to get off to a good start, or he might not last long.

3. More work to be done? More good news today, as the Philly Inquirer reports that the team is close to resigning setup man J.C. Romero. Romero was a force for the Phils down the stretch last season.

Romero went 1-2 with a 1.24 ERA in 51 appearances last season for the Phillies, who signed him to a minor-league contract after the Boston Red Sox released him.

So that’s welcome news. Read the rest of this entry »