Best 1-2 punch?
Today, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick hands out some midseason awards and he names Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana the best 1-2 punch in baseball. I beg to differ.
Don’t get me wrong, Santana is the real deal, boasting 99 strikeouts and only 28 walks. And Saunders is on a heck of a run, to be sure. But I don’t think we can rank him among baseball’s elite starters just because he’s won a lot of games. He’s got 49 strikeouts, which doesn’t even place him among the top 100 on the leader board. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is a pedestrian 2:1. And, frankly, he’s been more lucky than good this first half, with a babip of .241. You think that’s gonna last? Me neither.
What about Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, who Crasnick awarded an honorable mention? Between them they have 175 Ks (Santana and Saunders have 148). Haren has a K/BB ratio of better than 5:1. Webb’s is nearly 4:1. If we’re going by wins, which is a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher, Santana and Saunders have a one win advantage. But that’s pretty much the only advantage they have.
I think Santana and Saunders have been great so far. But I think Haren and Webb have been a little better. And I think they’ll continue to be an elite 1-2 punch going forward.
Who’s going to win the award for best 1-2 punch when it’s handed out in September? I think the Angels pitchers are likely to keep the prize, but not the same Angels pitchers. Santana might just maintain his dominance, but look for John Lackey to supplant Saunders as the ace of the staff. Other candidates to win best 1-2 punch when it’s handed out in September: Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum, Rich Harden and Justin Duchscherer, Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster, and Josh Beckett and Dice-K.
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What They Need - Arizona Diamondbacks: Another Bat
The Arizona Diamondbacks appear to be a team without too many holes. Their rotation looks solid from top to bottom, the painfully underrated Conor Jackson is turning into a player that could be a cornerstone for a franchise, and Brandon Lyon has done a capable job finishing games although he never did profile as your stereotypical closer. But this is not exactly a perfect team and the stats show that there may be some rockier times ahead.
It’s not really a revelation to state that Chase Field is a hitter’s park. In 2007, the home of the Diamondbacks had 11% more runs scored within its confines than in the average stadium. In 2008, that figure’s even higher at nearly 27%, which is second highest in MLB. So I find it curious that so far this season, only 9% of fly balls given up by D-Backs pitching have left the yard, which is tied for the lowest percentage in the National League. Even with perhaps the best ground ball pitcher in the game today, Brandon Webb, the Arizona staff have generated only a 43% ground ball percentage, meaning that 57% of batted balls were airborne, a figure that’s higher than the league average (44%). This is a pitching staff that should be giving up more home runs than they have. And I think they eventually will. But the problem is that finding better arms than Webb, Danny Haren, Randy Johnson, Micah Owings, and Doug Davis is a difficult task. They even have Max Scherzer as insurance. But upgrading their lineup to help compensate for the increase in runs allowed isn’t a bad way to go either, and this should be easier to do.
Led by Conor Jackson and Orlando Hudson, the Diamondbacks lineup is sound, but can be improved. Sure, Mark Reynolds has been jacking up dingers like nobody’s business, but as of this writing, 21.5% of his batted fly balls are leaving the park, which is potentially sustainable, but do know that in 2007 there were only seven hitters who maintained that or better. Long story short, I don’t think he’s at those guys’ level just yet. And despite Chris B. Young’s inability to raise his paltry BABiP no matter how hard he tries, he appears to have a ton of talent. And with young Stephen Drew and Justin Upton performing admirably, there’s really only one major hole in their offense - left field (Eric Byrnes).
It might seem blasphemous to suggest that Eric Byrnes, a man who finished 11th in NL MVP voting last season, can be replaced, but it’s true. Simply put, the man never has been as good a player as the general populace thinks. Personally, I blame fantasy baseball. You see that he hit 20+ HRs for the past two seasons and that he swiped 50 bags and think he’s a superstar. But for his career, his line is a pretty pedestrian .264/.326/.447. Despite “breaking out” in 2006 with 26 home runs, he still ended up with a 96 OPS-Plus, which made him a below average offensive player. Last season, he broke the 100 barrier by posting a barely above average 104 OPS-Plus, but this was in large part due to the fact that he also had a .309 BABiP, which for Eric Byrnes, is pretty dang high as he’s usually in the .270 area. To boot, he’s had a terrible 2008 thus far, with a line of .219/.285/.388 and is on the DL with a strained right hamstring, due to return very soon.
The man does, to his credit, play a pretty good left field, leading the position in revised zone rating. But if it weren’t for the ill-advised 3-year/$30 million extension he signed last year, he may have already been benched, grit and spunk be damned.
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Cy Yawn.
This year, the Cy Young debate is hardly a debate at all. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Jake Peavy will take home the hardware for the NL, while C.C. Sabathia will be the AL pitcher clearing off his mantel. I suppose I can agree with that. Thus, this post will be dedicated to acknowledging this year’s also-rans.
In the NL, Peavy’s 19-6 record, 223.1 IP, 240 K’s, and 2.54 ERA are hot indeed. But Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks made the same number of starts (34) and pitched more innings (236.1) leading to a few more decisions (18-10). Of course, his ERA is higher (3.01) and his strikeouts were fewer (194). I feel I also ought to mention Brad Penny of the Dodgers and John Smoltz of the Braves. Neither was good enough to be the NL Cy this year, of course, but they still put up good numbers. In fact, their numbers were eerily similar to one another’s. Except, of course, for Smoltz’s better strikeout rate. And we throw a tiny scrap in the direction of Aaron Harang of Cincinnati, for being the Chien-Ming Wang of the NL. Only, because he doesn’t pitch for the Yankees, his name hasn’t been bandied about at all. I’m sure he feels, if not harangued (ha) then at least a bit forlorn.
In the AL, Cleveland’s Sabathia has been a beast. 241 innings pitched! 34 starts! 209 strikeouts! Only 37 walks! And his 3.21 ERA ain’t too shabby either. Plus, I’m sure Cleveland is very happy with the 19-7 record. And he seems determined to single-handedly revive the lost art of the complete game. Of course, he wasn’t exactly masterful against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, but he was good enough to get by. But our sympathies should really extend to Fausto Carmona. If he hadn’t been so overshadowed by the No. 1 starter on his own team, we might be talking about him for the Cy. His ERA is an even better 3.06, and though he pitched fewer innings (215 in 32 starts) and didn’t strike out nearly as many (137) or walk so few (61), his record is nearly identical at 19-8. Then there’s Josh Beckett of the Red Sox, the only 20-game winner during the regular season. No sign of fatigue, either, as he threw a complete-game shutout against the Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS. His 194 K’s and 40 walks in 200.2 innings (in 30 starts) aren’t anything to sneeze at, and his ERA of 3.27 is perfectly decent. But even the nice, round number of 20 wins isn’t quite enough to dislodge C.C. from his throne. Finally, John Lackey has barely gotten a mention, even though he has the best ERA in the league (3.01) and a comparable record (19-9). His 224 IP in 33 starts are better than the other also-rans, and his 179 K’s and 52 walks are certainly comparable. Yet his candidacy barely got any airtime. No, people wanted to talk about Chien-Ming Wang instead. While Wang’s season was impressive, his numbers definitely put him at the bottom of the pack (see Aaron Harang, above). And we curtly nod in the direction of Scott Kazmir, who was the AL strikeout leader this season, but walked 89 batters and who couldn’t do better than 13-9 because of Tampa Bay’s atrocious bullpen. We also acknowledge Eric Bedard, whose monstrous 10.93 K/9 rate would surely have gotten him better than a 13-5 record were he not toiling away for the Orioles.
Remember, also-rans: there’s always next year.
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