As a Phillies fan, the Braves’ rotation is keeping me up at night. Derek Lowe. Tim Hudson (who just signed a three-year deal). Jair Jurrjens. Tommy Hanson. Javier Vazquez. Good god almighty, that is a solid five.

Oh, and don’t forget about Kenshin Kawakami, who posted a 3.86 ERA in 2009 and is under contract for another two seasons. He’s a pretty decent insurance plan.

Suffice it to say, Atlanta doesn’t need to worry about their starting pitching. What they do need to worry about is first base. And left field. And right field. And the bullpen. And Chipper Jones’ fragile, quickly deteriorating body.

Last season it took Atlanta a few months to figure out a lineup that could score runs. Once they realized Martin Prado was the answer at second base, and replaced Jordan Schaffer with Nate McLouth and Jeff Francoeur with Ryan Church, they were cooking with gas.

They also traded for Adam LaRoche, who provided his usual second-half fireworks. But now LaRoche is a free agent, and Atlanta is faced with the option of re-signing him and enduring his usual first-half craptitude, or pursuing another option. LaRoche’s first-half/second-half splits are real. His first-half OPS: .773. His second-half OPS: .909. Rather than bringing him back, a better plan would be moving Chipper Jones to first base. Jones’ defense appears to be slipping, but his bat is still potent. At first base he’d be more likely to stay healthy and he’d cost the team fewer runs on defense.

Who would play third if Chipper moved to first? Pedro Feliz will likely be available and nobody has a stronger, more accurate arm. Other free agents include Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre and Mark DeRosa, but those guys will likely prove too expensive for the cash-strapped Braves. Melvin Mora and Placido Polanco are other options.

Last season, Matt Diaz played a big chunk of games in left field and did quite well. But Diaz is traditionally poor against righties and the Braves might want to keep him in a platoon. Fortunately, Atlanta has Ryan Church, who hits righties OK enough (.280/.353/.460). Diaz and Church can split time in left field, while rookie Jason Heyward can play right field if he makes the team out of spring training. Rob Neyer says, “Heyward’s first time in Double-A came this summer, when he was just turning 20. In 47 games he struck out 19 times, drew 28 walks, and posted a .446 on-base percentage.” So he’s going to be good. If Heyward needs some more minor league seasoning, Diaz/Church could shift to right field and the Braves could sign a free agent or trade for a left fielder. The AJC’s Dave O’Brien says not to dismiss rumors that Atlanta might trade for Florida 2B Dan Uggla and shift him to LF. I’m not sure I endorse that idea, but it’s one option.

Finally, we’ve got the bullpen. Between them, the Braves’ dual closers had as many blown saves in 2009 as Brad Lidge. That’s not good. On the other hand, their combined ERAs were still more than a run lower than Lidge’s. So let’s not go crazy bashing them. Mike Gonzalez walked a few too many batters, but mostly he and Rafael Soriano were just a little unlucky. The Braves paid them a total of about $10MM in 2009, and if they can sign them to similar deals in 2010 they should bring them back. Otherswise, there are plenty of free agent bullpen arms out there.

Ultimately, that’s all Atlanta needs. Shift Chipper to first and sign Feliz and you improve your infield defense. Create a Diaz/Church platoon, and you’ve improved over last year’s Diaz/Garrett Anderson platoon. Uggla/Heyward/Anyone-else in the other corner outfield spot is better than Jeff Francoeur, last year’s starting right fielder. A full season of Prado will be an improvement over a Kelly Johnson/Prado split.

The rumor is the Braves are going to trade one of their pitchers, most likely Lowe, Vazquez or Kawakami, to reduce payroll and land a left fielder with pop. I think the team should hang onto it’s pitching depth. They’re not the Giants. They’re not desperate for offense. They were fifth in OBP last season, sixth in wOBP, and fifth in runs scored. As for the team’s payroll situation, I’m not an accountant, but I don’t think my plan, which calls for signing one free agent position player (Feliz) and a couple of bullpen arms, is too extravagent.

- What They Need Index -

My buddy Glenn likes gifs. He’s prolific at them, actually. He says he’ll soon graduate to flash video. I, for one, hope he doesn’t abandon the wonderful aesthetic and convenient medium of the GIF. Every one is a treasure worth discovering.

Anyway, upon hearing the news that one Bobby Cox would retire, Glenn decided to conceptualize the importance of this announcement in the form of an animated GIF.

This is the result.

As far as Cox’ legacy beyond the animated GIF, ie, baseball? Rob Neyer’s post puts it in good perspective.

Really, the only thing missing from Cox’s resumè is World Championships (plural). He’s won just one of them, fewer than non-Hall of Famers Danny Murtaugh, Billy Martin, Tom Kelly, Ralph Houk, and Cito Gaston.

Which won’t keep Cox out of the Hall of Fame. It’s a lot harder to win the World Series than it used to be, and winning just one World Series certainly didn’t keep Earl Weaver out of the Coop.

A while back, we questioned the notion that the Braves’ trade for Adam LaRoche was about 2010. Today we’ll take a look at who might play 1B for Atlanta next season.

The contenders:

1. Adam LaRoche, the team’s current 1B, will be a free agent at the end of the season and could be resigned.

2. Chipper Jones, who has had a horrid season at third base, leading the league in errors and posting a -10.1 UZR, might benefit from a move to first.

3. Freddie Freeman is a first baseman and one of the organization’s top prospects, but probably won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2011 or, at the earliest, late 2010.

4. Martin Prado has had a good year, playing mostly at second base but also spending time at 1B and 3B and hitting .291/.342/.429.

5. Nick Johnson and Carlos Delgado are two other free agent first basemen, and are both injury risks.

So what’s Atlanta to do? Let’s analyze the situation:

• Move Chipper to 1B. This seems obvious, right? The Braves need a first baseman and Chipper seemingly can no longer hack it at third. Moving him to first would keep his bat in the lineup and hopefully help him stay off the DL. But here’s the rub: if Chipper moves to 1B he’ll be blocking Freeman, who could be ready for the bigs as soon as June. And Chipper is signed through 2011, so Freeman would potentially be stuck at triple-A until 2012.
• Make Martin Prado the first baseman. Prado has had a pretty decent season serving as Atlanta’s super utility player, hitting .291/.342/.429. The Braves could move him to first, where he’s played decent defense in 2009, until Freeman is ready. Unfortunately, this move wouldn’t solve the problem of Jones’ deteriorating fielding ability, and Atlanta would be crossing their fingers that Jones’ bad year in the field was an anomaly. Jones had an almost equally bad season at third in 2006, but rebounded to play average defense in 2007 and was a stellar fielder last season. Maybe he’ll make a similar recovery in 2010? Maybe. But he’s at the age when a dramatic defensive improvement is unlikely.
• Bring back LaRoche. This would be the safe play, as you pretty much know what you’re getting with LaRoche. On the other hand, what you’re getting really isn’t that great, and there’s little reason to think that he’d be any better than Prado, who is already under contract.
• Sign another free agent. Other free agent first basemen include Carlos Delgado and Nick Johnson, but both come with injury concerns. On the plus side, signing a free agent first baseman would allow Atlanta to play Prado at second base in 2010, where he’d most likely represent an offensive upgrade over Kelly Johnson, who has never lived up to expectations.

My advice? Atlanta should sign a free agent 2B, shift Prado to 3B and move Chipper to first. Both Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson will be available this winter and both would represent a drastic improvement over Kelly Johnson, who started 2009 as Atlanta’s 2B before getting benched.

Sure, Chipper would be blocking Freeman, but only until Chipper strains an oblique or herniates a disk in his back, or comes down with some other inevitable injury. And when he does Atlanta can call up Freeman for a tryout with the big club. And if Freeman hits so well that Atlanta is forced to keep him in the lineup even after Chipper returns from the DL, well, that’ll be a good problem to have.

Today, Buster Olney writes about Chipper Jones’ defensive struggles and says:

Chipper Jones says he might retire if he has another season like this one, writes David O’Brien. Remember, he just signed a three-year, $42 million extension, which runs through 2012. Yes, he is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

That last line — Yes, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer — jumped out at me. Jones is the man. I’m a huge fan. But I’m curious if everybody else is convinced that Jones is Cooperstown-bound.

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Today, the AJC’s Jeff Schultz tells us that the Braves sole trade dealine move — a straight-up swap of 1B Casey Kotchman for 1B Adam LaRoche — is about 2010.

But he never tells us how in the world dealing Kotchman for LaRoche will make the Braves better in 2010. And for the love of me I can’t figure it out.

Schultz says, in his column titled “Message Heard: Welcome to the 2010 season”:

Wren hasn’t given up on 2009. But 2010 ranks as a higher priority.

and

Two weeks ago, Chipper Jones said that while it was clear the front office had made improvements to the roster,  “we’ve got our eyes toward next year and the year after, and whatever comes this year is gravy.”

Wren has never hid from that perception.

But the reality is LaRoche won’t play for the Braves in 2010 unless the team offers him arbitration and he accepts. And even if LaRoche does play for the Braves in 2010, he isn’t an upgrade over Kotchman, who is a better defensive 1B. In fact, the two are about equal — both represent about one win over replacement.

At least Kotchman would have been the less expensive option. He’s only scheduled to make $4-5MM in 2010, while LaRoche will probably earn closer to $7MM.

Maybe the Braves are planning to cut ties with LaRoche after this season and pursue a free agent 1B? If so, they’ll be able to choose from a glamorous list that includes 38-year-old Carlos Delgado, Nick Johnson, or Chad Tracy.

Maybe the Braves are planning to promote a minor leaguer? The organization’s only decent 1B prospect is Freddie Freeman, who hits for average and has shown some power, but who has only played 23 game at Double-A and doesn’t figure to be ready for the bigs by March.

Maybe the Braves are going to get creative and trade for a 1B?

Maybe. But as things stand now, it’s not clear how the LaRoche trade will help the Braves in 2010.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that it’s possible that LaRoche will really rake in the next two months and that he’ll qualify as a Type B free agent. If that happens and the Braves offer him arbitration and he decides not to return and signs elsewhere, then the Braves will get a supplementary draft pick between the first and second rounds of next year’s draft. But that’s several big ifs, and it still doesn’t change the fact that LaRoche is unlikely to make the Braves any better in 2010.

UPDATE #2: Last night I Tweeted Schultz and asked him, “How does the LaRoche trade help the Braves in 2010?” The response: “SchultzAJC@umpbump It doesn’t because chances are he won’t be re-signed. Trade was about 2009 but effort to improve team deal for 09 was minimal.” OK. But if 2010 really is the priority, why trade away a 1B who was signed relatively cheaply through next season for a guy who will be a free agent at the end of 2009?

FINAL UPDATE: I Tweeted Schultz and asked him, “So who will play 1B for the Braves in 2010?” He responded, “Ryan Howard. … Hey, a guy can dream. … Seriously, I think it depends on who corner outfielders are.”

“The Braves are a team that always seems to find good pitching and they’re always lacking offensive punch. When Chipper Jones is healthy, he adds the punch that they need and the stabilizing force they need in the lineup. But any time he’s injured, that lineup becomes offensively challenged. I just don’t think they have enough offense to challenge the Phillies. THey (sic) have good pitching, but not enough offense. Pitching is great, but you still have to score runs to win.”

- Joe Morgan, in his chat this morning at ESPN.com…saying the same exact thing five times in the span of five written sentences.

AJC columnist Mark Bradley writes that the Braves should pass on trading for A’s outfielder Matt Holliday, which is a fine sentiment, but his logic is a little flawed.

Bradley says:

And there’s no assurance Holliday would swing the 2009 division race any more than Teixeira did in 2007. (Albert Pujols would, but he’s not apt to be available.) There’s no great difference-maker to be had. This is baseball, where the difference-makers are starting pitchers, and the Braves have enough of those.

It’s true the Braves already have plenty of starting pitching. But they’ve got room for improvement on defense (-19 team UZR) and on offense (last in runs scored in the NL East). Maybe Matt Holliday isn’t the answer, but the Braves have plenty of questions outside of their rotation.

Here’s a thought: trade for Scott Rolen and move Chipper Jones and his -9.4 UZR to first base. Here’s what Fangraphs had to say about Rolen in a post on Tuesday:

Rolen is experiencing an inflated BABIP, raising his wOBA to .369 on the season. ZiPS suggests that’ll come back to Earth, but that he’s still an above average hitter moving forward. Gone are the days where Rolen would accumulate 15-20 runs on defense, but he’s still very much above average. So far his UZR/150 is 5.2, last year it was 8.5, and the year before 17.9.

Acquiring Rolen likely wouldn’t cost nearly as much as landing Holliday, and Rolen’s addition would drastically improve Atlanta’s infield defense. Moreover, replacing Kotchman with Rolen would improve Atlanta’s offense as well.

It’s just a thought. If the Braves don’t want Rolen, they they might trade for a new first baseman (Carlos Delgado, Aubrey Huff and Nick Johnson could all be available). The larger point is that pitchers are not the only impact players and the Braves need plenty of help.

Metsblog.com is reporting that the Mets and Braves are swapping outfielders. Jeff Francoeur is Queens-bound while Ryan Church is heading down to Dixie.

Now, there aren’t too many times when I’ve lost my head while writing a post. But let’s add this one to that short list.

HOW IN HOLY HELL IS THIS GOING TO MAKE THE TEAM BETTER??????????????

HOW IS JEFF FRANCOEUR BETTER THAN RYAN CHURCH? IN WHAT WAY? FRENCHY’S OBP? IT’S AT .282. TWO-FREAKING-EIGHTY-FREAKING-TWO. HE’S OPS-ING .634. AS A CORNER OUTFIELDER. DEFENSE? CHURCH IS BETTER. POWER? CHURCH HAS A HIGHER SLUGGING. SIMPLY PUT, JEFF FRANCOEUR IS ONE OF THE WORST PLAYERS IN BASEBALL.

IN WHAT UNIVERSE IS JEFF FRANCOEUR BETTER THAN RYAN CHURCH? AND WHY WOULD THE METS MAKE THIS TRADE??? WHY??????????

…

Dear God, I am not a man of faith. But I pray that this is a precursor to another trade. Because quite frankly, there’s no other possible reason other than pure idiocy as to why any GM would make this deal. IT MAKES ZERO SENSE. NONE.