So the Phillies are letting Brett Myers walk, and you can feel pretty confident that the biggest reason he’s not sticking around is he was a giant pain in the ass during his Philly tenure.

But let’s give credit where credit is due. Myers’ parting words were classy:

“I was just like, `OK, thanks for putting up with my (stuff),’ ‘’ Myers said. “He thanked me and wished me and my family well.

“I’ll miss the guys on the team and the fans who have supported me. Hopefully I’ll be playing against the Phillies and when I do I want the roughest treatment the fans can give me – when I’m pitching. I’m an opposing player – you have to give it to me.’’

Don’t worry, Brett. We’ll boo your ass. But you saved an NLDS, so we’ll refrain from throwing any batteries.

If you’ve ever argued in favor of the designated hitter by saying, “pitchers can’t hit,” I give you exhibit A of my rebuttal — Brett Allen Myers. He’s 3 for 3 today with two runs and three RBIs. And we’re not done yet.

Baseball Prospectus has a formula called Secret Sauce that they use to predict who will play in the World Series. The formula focuses in on three criteria: 1. Pitchers that strike out batters. 2. A stud closer. 3. A good defense.

Here’s how SI’s John Donovan describes the formula:

The “Secret Sauce,” as BP call its concoction, has worked out pretty well over the years by bypassing some of the more common stats and digging deeper. The Sauce not only takes into account a pitching staff’s strikeout rates, for example, but it adjusts that number based on league differential and ballpark factors.

The Phillies and Red Sox, for what it’s worth, have the highest secret sauce rankings among National League and American League teams, respectively (though it’s worth noting that there were several American League teams with better Sauce scores than Philadelphia). Moreover, the Phils have two pitchers in the top 30 in the majors in K/9. Both Hamels and Myers average almost 8 strikeouts per nine innings. Jamie Moyer averages 5.64 K/9. Blanton averages a shade over 5.

If the Dodgers are going to beat the Phillies, they are going to have to overcome Philly’s pitching, which has miraculously morphed from a weakenss to a strength seemingly overnight. Specifically, they’ll have to:

1. Hit home runs off Brett Myers. During the first half of the season, Myers gave up 24 homers in 101 innings. After a brief minor league tour he returned and only gave up five home runs in 88 innings. Myers’ second half resurrection had everything to do with his ability to keep the ball in the park. The Dodgers need to swing for the fences.

2. Make the Phils’ starters throw pitches. That’s how the Brewers beat Jamie Moyer in Game 3. I’m not sure if playoff strike zones are smaller, but it sure seemed that way to Moyer on Saturday. If the Dodgers can get to the Philadelphia bullpen early, they’re golden. The Phils’ bullpen was solid all season, but showed signs of fatigue down the stretch. Chad Gaudin Durbin and Brad Lidge are running on fumes. Lidge, in particular, is building towards his own Mitch Williams moment.

3. Don’t pitch to Utley. He’s so due.

4. Start Clayton Kershaw. He’d be murder on the Phils’ lefty bats.

5. Don’t play Juan Pierre. Ever. Not even a little.

When the Phillies traded for Brad Lidge and announced they would move Brett Myers from the bullpen to the starting rotation, every baseball writer worth his salt wrote some version of the following sentence:

“Cole Hamels needed help at the top of the rotation, and the Phillies weren’t going to get it by diving head-first into a weak free-agent market.”

The consensus was that Myers was the best pitcher available, and he was already on the Phillies roster! So why not move him into the rotation?

Just one problem. It turned out Myers was a horrible “free agent” pick up. He began the season by going 3-9 in 17 starts with an earned run average of 5.84.

Fortunately, Myers was a terrific trade deadline acquisition. Friday’s win improved Myers’ record to 8-10. It also extended an incredible stretch of pitching. The Phillies sent Myers to the at midseason and recalled him July 20. He got a no-decision in his first start but has gone 6-1 since and is 4-0 with a 0.58 ERA in his past four starts. That’s two runs in 31 innings to go with 35 strikeouts.

On Friday night, Myers threw 81 of his 118 pitches for strikes. Yowza.

Bob Ford wrote a column on Saturday criticizing Phillies president Dave Montgomery for not doing enough to improve the Phillies before the trade deadline. And it’s true the Phillies didn’t make any spectacular improvements during the season, unless you consider Scott Eyre or Matt Stairs spectacular (and, let’s face it, you don’t).

But if we thought Myers was the best “free agent” available this winter, then surely he also qualifies as a stellar trade deadline acquisition?

Myers’ start last night not only gave the Phillies hope that they can reach the postseason, but also that they can advance past the first round. It’s long been my theory that a team needs two top of the line starters to advance through the playoffs (or you need to be on a mission from god, a la the 2007 Rockies). Beckett and Matsuzaka. Schilling and Johnson. Clemens and Pettitte. These are guys who carried their teams to greatness. Hamels and Myers? Two months ago, it would have sounded crazy to suggest that they could get this team to the World Series. But one thing is for sure – we’re not watching the Brett Myers of two months ago.

Let me start this post by saying that, at this juncture, with less than a month left in the regular season, I tend to throw all predictive stats out the window. With so little time left, very close divisional races such as the ones we still have in the AL Central, NL East, and NL West, could easily be decided on anomalous occurrences. Orlando Cabrera could far surpass career norms and OPS over 1.000 in September, leading the White Sox into the post season. Newly acquired Matt Stairs could start jacking home runs for the Phillies and allow them to overtake the Mets for the second year in a row. And both Brandon Webb and Danny Haren could completely implode over the final few weeks, and the Dodgers could be crowned division champs.

Are any of these specific events likely to occur? Probably not. But every year, instances akin to these do happen and factor heavily into the playoff picture. The unlikely is expected.

So this is not a post where I am going to predict how the NL East is going to play out in the month of September. Frankly, I think it’s a waste of time even trying to do so. But I do want to assess the current situation, and lay out the things we should be looking at over these final 22 games, especially since the Mets and Phils are locking horns for the last time this year in a three-game series starting tonight.

Can They Keep It Up?

METS: I shake my head a bit at the recent chatter regarding whether or not Carlos Delgado is an MVP candidate. For one, he doesn’t deserve it, and two, it’s unbelievable that I even have to argue against it considering where he was just a couple of months ago. As of the morning of June 26th, Delgado had a .229 BA, .306 OBP, and most surprising of all, a .396 SLG. That’s an OPS barely above .700 for a guy with a career OPS of .925. But during the game on the 26th against the Yankees, Delgado exploded for 2 home runs and a team record 9 RBIs. And since then, his line has been a very impressive .298/.391/.627. To me, it’s the difference in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) that’s most encouraging. And surprising based on his performance during the first 3 months of the season.

PHILLIES: One area of the Phillies that I completely underestimated going into the season was their pitching. As a team, they’ve allowed  only 4.17 runs per game, which is top-three in the National League – and they’re doing it in a hitter’s park. But one guy who was not having much success for the better part of the season was Brett Myers. Through his first 17 starts, Myers was awful. He had an ERA of 5.84, had a worse K-rate (7.9/9) and a walk rate (3.9/9) than his career norms, and an incredibly high home run rate (2.12/9) as well. Then the Phillies did something a bit surprising – they optioned him to the minors in early July, and Myers agreed. And since his return to the bigs on July 23rd, Myers has been outstanding, especially in his past five starts. The Ks are back, the walks and homeruns have all but disappeared, and his ERA has reflected these positive changes (1.43 over 37 2/3 IP). I try to never put too much stock in so few innings, but that 37 2/3 IP are also about as many innings as the Phillies are going to get out of any starting pitcher from this point forth any way. So who says he can’t finish strong too? Myers takes the mound tonight against Mike Pelfrey in the series opener.

Can They Turn It Around?

METS: Pedro Martinez is a totally different pitcher these days, and the change hasn’t  been positive. When he arrived in Flushing back in 2005, he dominated. The following season, he walked a few more hitters and gave up more home runs. It was also during the 2006 campaign that the injuries began. First, it was a hip injury. Then it was his right calf. Then his left calf was torn. Finally, a torn rotator cuff. Season over. There was still some optimism in 2007 when Pedro returned. Despite a serious drop in velocity (couldn’t hit 90 mph any more), the strikeouts were still there, and the walks remained manageable. Yet, even though he had a 2.57 ERA in the five starts he made last year, his line drive % was telling a different story. Hitters were on him, evidenced by the .284 BAA. Predictably, Pedro missed significant time in 2008 as well. When he returned in June, his velocity was higher than last year (88-91mph), but the line drive % remained high – only this time, the strikeouts were down, walks were up, and he’s been giving up homeruns at a career high rate. As of this writing, his ERA is 5.07 and it’s no fluke. Can Pedro stay healthy and keep the ball down? Pedro is scheduled to get the ball on Saturday.

PHILLES: In 2007, the Phils averaged a whopping 5.51 runs scored per game. This year, they’re at 4.83, which is still good, but is also a noticeable drop. From here in New York, it seems that the media and fans are mostly attributing the decrease in production to Jimmy Rollins. But the bigger problem has been with Ryan Howard. His BA, OBP, and SLG have all decreased quite a bit for two consecutive seasons now. His sufficient HR (39) and RBI (119) numbers appear to be masking his .325 OBP. And although a .502 SLG is nothing to scoff at, it is a cause for concern when he had a .584 last year and .659 the season before that. Add it all together and his adjusted OPS is a 109 – which is a bit low for a first baseman, and especially so for a guy with Howard’s reputation. Unless he is hiding an injury, I don’t think that this is a decline just yet. He could very realistically go berserk in September.

Will They Get Noticed?

METS: I’m continually amazed at how little appreciation Carlos Beltran receives from Mets fans. Perhaps some false expectations were created by his career year in 2006 when he crushed 41 home runs in his second season in a Mets uniform. Or perhaps it’s because he’s been put into the clean-up spot 108 times this year and we’ve come to expect more power from that position in the batting order. Beltran may never hit 40 dingers again, but here’s what you can count on him for – one of the top defensive centerfielders in the game with good pop, a very strong ability to get on base and plus speed. As viewers, it’s easy to be impressed by diving catches and leaping grabs at the wall. They guys who are underappreciated are those who are so good they get to the ball fast enough so they don’t have to dive. Beltran’s one of those guys. And he’s also one of those guys who can appear to be able to win games all by himself. We haven’t seen that Beltran yet in 2008.

PHILLIES: When most people think of the Phillies lineup, the names that immediately come to mind are Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Burrell. But Jayson Werth is the guy who has impressed me most so far this year. This is a gentleman that walks, is slugging over .500, manages to steal bases without getting caught, and still somehow finds a way to give a stray badger shelter below his lower lip. Multi-tasking. Werth hasn’t been great against righties (.790 OPS) but absolutely kills lefties (1.051 OPS and 1 HR every 8.87 ABs). If he could get that OPS vs. righties up just a bit, he’d really be something pretty special.

I’ve got about an hour until game time, so I’ve gotta go on my way. Enjoy the series, UmpBumpers!

Time for another addition of fantasy fun. In this chapter, Paul returns from Japan, Sarah clinches a playoff birth, Alejandro squeaks by and Coley accepts his fate.

Sarah: The Somerville Green Sox clinched a playoff spot this week with a resounding 12-0 win over the long-dormant “caitlin grace” squad, who is apparently so lazy she cannot even capitalize her team name, much less be bothered to alter her roster–her active roster still includes Victor Martinez (DL), Khalil Greene (DL), Casey Kotchman (NA), Rafael Furcal (DL), Chris Young (DL), Dustin McGowan (DL), and Franklin Morales (NA). But hey, I ain’t complainin’. My team was smokin’ hot this week, racking up 7 saves, 117 total bases, 52 K’s, and so on. Plus my averages were pretty good too: .352 OBP, 2.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.25 K/BB. The only scary moment came when Ian Kinsler flirted with season-ending surgery (he’s now set to return to the lineup sometime early in September). I’ve picked up Mike Aviles in the meantime. Hot: Everyone, but especially Vernon Wells. Not: No one. There were only people who were slightly less than totally scorching. It was that kind of week.

Coley: I know how my team is bad. I just can’t figure out why. Why was this the season when Aaron Harang went from reliable horse to hittable mule? Why did Josh Beckett and Carlos Lee have to get injured as soon as I traded for them? Why did Brett Myers and Oliver Perez start so terribly? And why does my team, which is probably the strongest team I’ve ever had on paper, continue to lose? How can a pitching staff with Beckett, Harden, Dice-K and a resurgent Myers be so bad? How can an offense led by Alfonso Soriano, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Connor Jackson and Vlad Guerrero be so meh? I will be forever haunted by this fantasy season. Hot: Bengie Molina, Mark Teixeira, Vlad Guerrero, Rich Harden, Brett Myers. Not: Brandon Lyon, Jason Giambi.

Paul: Be honored. I just got back to my apartment after being in Japan for the last week. And what do I do first? I come to my laptop and type up my (albeit belated) fantasy post. And while I do love my fantasy baseball, I have to admit that I paid no mind at all this past week since I just didn’t have the time to be changing lineups and checking results. And whenever I’m in Japan, my priority first and foremost is food. Lots and lots of food. Anyhow I just saw the results from this past week about ten minutes ago and I was pleasantly surprised that my team didn’t need any attention whatsoever, winning my week 11-1 against Ania and her team with the really long name. But it’s a bummer that both Justin Duchscherer and George Sherrill hit the DL without me knowing. Now I’ve gotta play some catch-up on the waiver wire. Word to your mutha. Hot: Brian Roberts, David Wright, Matt Holliday, Cliff Lee. Not: Kosuke Fukudome, Troy Tulowitzki, my team’s necessity for a manager that pays attention.

Alejandro: Another week, another narrow victory over one of the two cellar-dwelling teams in the UmpBump Fantasy League. Freebase my balls is second to last, and only because caitlin grace (what’s up with inproper capitalization guys?) doesn’t bother anymore. And still, my Center Field Stud barely wins 6-5. It was so bad, I lost in the Stolen Base category 2-1. The offense was there, especially now that I know Alexei Ramirez will win ROTY (yes, Paul, Longoria posted the numbers, but he’s hurt). I have a hole in left field since Carl Crawford went down, and Garret Anderson’s hit streak is useless in our league. A big shout out to Mike Pelfrey who pitched two consecutive complete games (even though the second one counts towards this week). Hot: A.J. Pierzynksi, Alexei Ramirez, Jermaine Dye (live and die by the White Sox, eh CF Stud?), Yunel Escobar, Tim “no contest” Lincecum, Manny Parra, Mike Pelfrey, Kerry Wood, B.J. Ryan. Not: Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Garret Anderson, Josh Hamilton, Magglio Ordoñez.

Going into the season the Phillies had some obvious question marks, but none more glaring than the bullpen. Last year’s bullpen was bad. How bad? I won’t bore you with statistics, but suffice it to say that when you’re regularly pitching Jose Mesa and Antonio Alfonseca, you’ve got problems.

This season, Brad Lidge was given a shot to finish games. It was a gamble, handing over closing duties to a guy with a notoriously fragile psyche. Philadelphia, I’m told, isn’t the ideal place to rebuild one’s confidence. But so far this season, Lidge has been perfect. And the Phillies bullpen, amazingly, has been the best in the NL. Moreover, the team’s offense has been second only to the Chicago Cubs.

Yet all is not well in the City of Brotherly Shove, as the Phils find their lead over the dreaded New York Metropolitans shrinking by the day.

So what do the Phillies need to win the NL East, if not bullpen help or offense?

Nothing.

You heard me. The Phillies are good enough as assembled to win the NL East. The problem isn’t making the playoffs (not that anything is assured). The problem is what happens once they get there.

The Phillies simply don’t have the kind of dominant starting pitching that it takes to win in the playoffs. Cole Hamels is the real thing, for sure. But after Hamels the talent level drops off considerably.

Brett Myers was supposed to be the team’s no. 2, but right now he’s in the minors. He’s scheduled to rejoin the team this week, but it’s hardly a safe bet to assume he’s rediscovered what it takes to dominate hitters.

The popular rumor at the moment is that the Phillies will trade for Oakland SP Joe Blanton, who certainly has a solid track record. But you have to be nervous about trading for a guy with a 1.41 WHIP and an ERA just under 5.00.

Such is the tricky situation Phillies GM Pat Gillick finds himself in. He has a paper thin farm system that he doesn’t want to further deplete. Yet he needs to acquire a top-flight starter if this team has any chance of advancing in October. Moreover, the best starters – Sabathia and Harden – are off the market.

Blanton might be the Phils’ best bet. He’s young. He’s cheap. And he’ll remain under team control through the 2010 season, so he won’t be just a two month rental. Last season was Blanton’s break-out. He pitched 230 innings, recording 140 K’s, a 1.20 WHIP and a nearly 4:1 K/BB. He probably won’t repeat those numbers this season. But, because he has been pretty crappy so far, his price probably isn’t as high as it was in February, when it was rumored the A’s were asking for Homer Bailey and Joey Votto for Blanton.

There’s been a rumor that the Giants will shop Matt Cain, and that the Phillies could be buyers. But that seems highly unlikely. A.J. Burnett is available, but he’s also been very erratic this season – and he’s a total d-bag.

No, I suspect it’ll be Blanton. And that’ll be an upgrade over Kyle Kendrick, to be sure. But while Blanton might bolster the Phils’ thin staff, he isn’t the kind of pitcher who is likely to dominate in the postseason. He’s a groundball pitcher, and that will no doubt serve him well in Citizen Bank Park, but he’s no Johan Santana.

Unfortunately, the only strikeout pitcher the Phillies are likely to add between now and July 31 is Brett Myers. And that’s far from a safe bet.

UPDATE: The Phillies have traded for Joe Blanton.

- What They Need Index -

• Yesterday, I watched Pat Burrell AND Ryan Howard leg out triples. This was Howard’s fifth career triple and Burrell’s 12th, though only his third since 2003. There is almost nothing more enjoyable than watching slow guys leg out triples. I remember watching Sean Casey go from home to third last year for his first triple since 2004. When he got there, gasping for breath and grinning from ear to ear, his teammates mocked him from the dugout. You would have thought Casey was wearing his underwear outside his pants for all the grief he got. Glorious.
• My friend Kevin is a Red Sox fan. I’m a Phillies fan. I asked him who was pitching today and he looked it up on his computer. “John Lester and Jamie Moyer,” he said. “Oh, good,” I said. “Moyer’s old, but I love him. He almost threw a no-hitter his last time out.” “You know who did throw a no-hitter this season?” Kevin asked. What a jerk.
• Chase Utley is in a funk. He’s 0 for his last 12. You can tell, he’s just not swinging the bat with any confidence. Yesterday he went 0-5. He did pick up an RBI, but it was on a check-swing ground ball. Fortunately, Ryan Howard picked up Utley’s slack, hitting two homers and a triple. That’s what is so dangerous about this Phillies team. They’ve got four guys who are legit stars (Howard, Rollins, Utley and Burrell) and on any given night one or two of them can carry the load.
• Watching the Phillies play the Sox, I couldn’t help but think that there’s much less of a talent gap between the two teams than there was as recently as last season. Philadelphia has improved with the addition of Brad Lidge and Pedro Feliz. And Boston, minus Big Papi, just isn’t the same offensive juggernaut. Right now, I’d still give Boston an advantage in a seven game series, because I think their starting pitching is a little stronger. But that could change if the Phillies acquire a pitcher like Rich Harden or Erik Bedard.
• I’m starting to think the Phils should trade for Rich Harden or Erik Bedard (preferably Harden, because Bedard seems like he is no fun). This Phillies team is good enough to win now. And there’s no guarantee that next year’s team will be as strong. Burrell is a free agent and while he says he wants to stay, it’s unclear if the Phils will be willing to spend $15 million a year to keep him. Lidge will be a free agent, and he’ll probably go where the money is. So why not go for broke? It would probably mean trading one of the team’s promising young starters (Carasco or Outman), but Harden is one of the most dominant pitchers around when healthy. It would be a gamble, but one that could pay huge dividends.
• My dad asked an interesting question the other day: would a team like the Oakland A’s or Cleveland Indians be willing to take Brett Myers as part of a trade for Harden or C.C. Sabathia? I don’t know the answer to that, but my instinct is no. Myers comes with too much baggage and he’s scheduled to make $12 million in 2009, so the Phils would probably have to eat a lot of his salary to make him appealing to another team. I don’t see that happening. Also, Myers is a free agent after 2009 and teams will be looking to acquire younger guys who will be under team control for much longer than that.