Boston's Achilles heel

It’s Sox versus Sox this weekend, as the Chicago White Sox come to Fenway for a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox. The two Sox are separated by only one game in the loss column, with the Boston team 4.5 games behind the first-place Rays (and playing them six times in September) in the AL East and the Chicago version just 1.5 games ahead of the Twins (who they play three more times) in the AL Central. The wild card? Still up for grabs.

Short version: this is a big series, folks.

So how can the Chicago nine beat my Boston squad? The answer is simple: get to the bullpen.

Yesterday, after Jon Lester spun yet another quality start, blanking the Yankees for six-and-two-thirds innings, Okajima came in with a runner on second. Okajima has not been good with inherited runners this year. He promptly surrendered a game-tying, pinch-hit home run to Jason Giambi, and the Red Sox lost in the bottom of the ninth.

This scenario is, by now, all too familiar to Red Sox fans. And this series against Chicago should present plenty of opportunities for the same.

Each "tock" brings you one second closer to Javier Lopez

Tonight, Daisuke Matsuzaka takes the hill for Boston. While Dice-K has been very good this year (2.98 ERA, 15-2 record), he averages about 5 and two-thirds innings per start and has a 1.50 K/BB. The Sox will be lucky if he gets through the sixth. Tomorrow, the likely starter is minor leaguer David Pauley, in place of the injured Josh Beckett. Pauley isn’t likely to make it past five frames. Sunday, the Sox have Tim Wakefield going, which could go either way. Wake can still cruise through lineups when his knuckler is fluttering, but at 42, he’s a little old to be left out there to labor.

So in at least two of the three contests, all the White Sox will have to do is play the waiting game.

Chicago isn’t particularly renowned for their patience (they’re sort of middle-of-the-pack when it comes to walks), but they’ll be facing Sir Walksalot in the person of Matsuzaka, a Triple-A pitcher in Pauley, and a knuckleballer in Wakefield. If they can lay off any pitch that’s even remotely borderline, they’ll get their fair share of free passes, and they’ll drive up the starters’ pitch counts.

And when the relievers come in, the White Sox won’t have to wait any longer–they can swing for the fences.

See Alejandro’s assessment of Chicago’s key weakness here.

No manager in baseball should be more tempted to ride his starting pitchers harder than Eric Wedge, because no team in baseball has a bigger dropoff in performance from the starters to the bullpen than the Cleveland Indians.

At present the Cleveland starting pitchers have the second best ERA in the American League, behind only the ridiculous Toronto starting five, but their bullpen ERA is the second worst in the league, ahead of only the execrable Texas Rangers relief corps. In addition, Cleveland relievers have the second least saves in the league with only 10, and have the league’s worst bullpen in terms of won-lost record, at 5-11.

Outside of Rafael Perez and Japanese import Masa Kobayashi, Cleveland relievers have been universally terrible. Last year’s unstoppable bullpen ace Rafael Betancourt has totally tanked, to the tune of a 5.40 ERA, attempts to get passable work out of veteran retreads Jorge Julio and Scott Elarton failed miserably, and perhaps worst of all, Cleveland continues to rely on Gagne-esque closer Joe Borowski (9.00 ERA) to try to close out games.

Of course the bullpen is not Cleveland’s only problem. The offense has also sputtered as nearly every hitter on the team has started out slow. But while it is inconceivable that every single Indians hitter will continue to be as bad as they have been, it is not inconceivable that this bullpen will continue to suck and suck mightily.

If I were Mark Shapiro, I’d be on the phone now to try to bring in a reliever or two.

- What They Need Index -

Yesterday the Phillies took a six run lead into the eighth inning and blew it. They were the first team to blow a lead that large that late this season.

[APPLAUSE] [APPLAUSE]

But here’s the crazy thing: it wasn’t even the fault of the Phillies’ bullpen. At least, not entirely. The majority of the Braves’ hits were, in the words of the guy on Sports Center, “a collection of bleeders, bloops and choppers.”

In other words, the Phils were unlucky.

Now, I’m not trying to make excuses for the Phillies. They have terrible pitching. Everybody knows it.

But yesterday’s loss was much more disheartening than your typical blown save.

We know the Phillies are going to win despite their pitching, not because of it. And if they make the post season, it will be on the strength of Ryan Howard’s bat, not Adam Eaton’s arm.

We know the Phillies will have to overcome a bullpen that is the worst in baseball.

But yesterday it wasn’t just Jose Mesa’s arm that betrayed the Phils. It was fate. It was destiny. And if you’re Ryan Howard, you’ve got to be thinking to yourself, “How do I overcome that?”

Speaking of the Phils offense…wow. They’re just silly good right now. And that sheds some light on just how bad Philadelphia’s pitching has been.

Among the offensive highlights:

• The Phillies have three candidates for NL MVP — Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.
• Utley has a legit chance at the batting title. He’s hitting .341 with a .421 OBP.
• Howard leads the league in RBI and is second in homers, despite a terrible start to the season and a DL stint.
• Jimmy Rollins ranks first in the NL in runs (120). He’s raised his AVG nine points in the last 10 games (.296). And he’s got rediculous power for a leadoff hitter (25 HR).
• After compiling the second lowest AVG in baseball during the first have of the season(.215), Pat Burrell has one of the highest in the second half (.329). Not to mention his .405 OBP.
• Jayson Werth, who is filling in for the injured Shane Victorino, is hitting .323 with an OBP of .422. He’ll be starting for somebody next season.
• Aaron Rowand, who everybody thought was a first-half fluke, continues to hit .313 with 23 HR and a .381 OBP. Two words: contract year.

All of this is to say that, no matter how awesome your offense is, it’s hard to overcome bad pitching. And after a game like yesterday’s, I’m starting to think that the Phillies, despite prolific hitting, won’t be able to do it. That’s why I’m stepping up and making the bold prediction that next year, finally, will be the Phillies’ year.

You heard it here first.

The fans in Atlanta are excited about the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen. Last season, the team traded for Cleveland closer Bob Wickman. This winter, they traded for Pittsburgh closer Mike Gonzalez and Seattle setup man Rafael Soriano.

On paper, the Braves’ pen looks great. But will it live up to expectations?

Bobby Cox seems to think it will. From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

The bullpen is so strong that manager Bobby Cox believes it’ll have an effect on the starting rotation akin to what good hitters can do for other hitters in a lineup. In other words, give them protection and make them better.

The Braves believe they have basically reduced games to six innings.

Starters don’t have to pace themselves and try to get through seven or eight every night, now that they know now that the trio of Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and Bob Wickman is anchoring a ‘pen that has gone from perhaps the weakest in the NL to potentially one of the two or three best in baseball.

Here’s the problem with Cox’s optimism: building a bullpen isn’t an exact science. And Cox should know that better than anyone. In 2005, the Braves thought they had a sure thing in closer Dan Kolb, who pitched 57 innings the previous season for Milwaukee and recorded 39 saves and a 2.98 ERA. But Kolb didn’t repeat his success in Atlanta. In 2005 he pitched 57 innings, recorded 11 saves and a 5.93 ERA. Ouch.

Relief pitchers are by far the most unpredictable players in sports. Players like Rheal Cormier, Guilermo Mota, Mike Stanton, Jose Mesa and Armando Benitez have great years followed by bad years followed by great years.

Other players, like recently departed Braves closer Chris Reitsma, just fall off the map entirely.

But one thing is for sure: the Braves’ bullpen needs to be better than it was last season, when it blew nearly half its save opportunities. Again from the AJC:

Last season the Braves lost a division and finished under .500 (79-83) for the first time since 1990. They finished 18 games behind the New York Mets.

The bullpen blew 29 (of 67) save opportunities - the second-most in the majors behind only Kansas City (31), which is to assume Kansas City is in the majors.

The Mets blew 15 saves.

Do the math. There’s a race buried in the difference.

The Braves honestly believe that if they had Bob Wickman all last season, they would have made the playoffs. And maybe they’re right. Who knows?

But here’s some food for thought. While Wickman was good last year (33 saves) and better the year before that (45 saves), he was lousy in 2004, recording only 13 saves and a 4.25 ERA.

The lesson: with relievers, you just never know.