As of this writing, Baseball Prospectus projects that the New York Mets have a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs this season. Although 6.5 games back in the Wild Card doesn’t sound utterly insurmountable, it’s more the fact that seven teams would have to fade away down the stretch that makes it improbable.

So this is the current situation for the Mets, as well as for Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, John Maine, and Carlos Beltran as they work their way back from their respective injuries that sunk any chances the Mets had at competing in 2009. With the season all but lost, how soon they return seems like a moot point these days.

Which is why I was a bit worried when I read Will Carroll’s “Under the Knife” article in BP, which says this about Beltran, who has been out since June 22nd with a bone bruise in his knee that just won’t heal:

Beltran has decided to accelerate the pace of his rehab, hoping to come back towards mid-August… Beltran made the informed decision based on the near certainty that he will need microfracture surgery and could miss much, if not all, of the 2010 season.

Yowza. Now, you have to respect a guy who refuses to give up, especially considering that some of my fellow Mets fans (well, those of us who are 64% brain-dead) insist on labeling the best centerfielder in baseball as ’soft’. But this sounds like a fool’s errand. I understand the “until the fat lady sings” mindset, but here’s the problem – the ‘end’ in this situation is not the conclusion of the 2009 season. Both the Mets and Beltran have a future in 2010, 2011, and so on that must take precendence at this point in time. If given the choice between 40 games of Carlos Beltran at 80% strength in 2009 and him at 100% (or close to it) for 100+ games in 2010, I will take the second option every time.

The Mets don’t need Beltran right now. But they would be far better off if they had him next year as early as possible.

You might have seen Nick, Coley, and Sarah’s MVP picks already. If not, then you probably should. Because only then will you be able to appreciate how much better mine are.

Call me VORPy. I believe that “most valuable” means that you were the best in that year. I do not think it’s rational to expect great players to be able to turn turd-ish teammates into 30HR-threats. And I like pie.

So please keep all of these things in mind as I take my crack at my list of MVP-worthy players in the AL and NL. And if any hate mail results from this, I will not read it unless it is accompanied by a slice of pie.

American League

#4: Dustin Pedroia – I don’t know if I have a bias for or against Pedroia. For one, he’s a Red Sox which is a negative (ducking as Sarah justifiably takes a digital swing at my head across the vast world of the interwebs). On the other hand, he’s about my size and as such is totally relatable. Plus, as a former second baseman myself, I appreciate how deftly he handles the position. So I think those two irrational sides cancel each other out. What we’re left with is a guy tied for sixth in AL Win Shares and third in Runs Created despite the fact that he plays a skill position.

#3: Roy Halladay – In a year where no AL hitter distinctively separated himself from the pack, I think it’s only right to recognize what Halladay did. Although Cliff Lee beat him for the ERA and Wins titles, Halladay was right behind him. But what puts Doc over the top is how well he performed over so many innings. His 2.78 ERA is only fully appreciated when one considers the fact that Halladay threw 22.67 more innings than any other pitcher in the AL. That’s over three more games total than Lee who’s second on that list. I don’t know about you, but I like the idea of having a guy with such a low ERA pitching instead of a crappy bullpen. How’s that for value? It should also be mentioned that Halladay finished third in strikeouts, fifth in hits allowed per nine, third in walks per nine, and of course, racked up Complete Games.

#2: Joe Mauer – It’s not just that he has a “very pretty” OBP. He led the AL in Win Shares. I don’t know when was the last time a catcher accomplished this. And while it may be odd for an MVP-candidate to have less than 10 HRs, the man still slugged .451 playing half his games in the Metrodome, which was one of the worst places for hitters in 2008. And with his second batting title in three years, he’s now the first catcher in the American League history to win two of those. The first catcher to win one AL batting title was, of course, Joe Mauer in 2006. Plus, Mauer also led the league in WPA (Win Probability Added) and led all catchers in defensive Win Shares this year as well.

#1: Grady Sizemore – Is there anything this man can’t do well? Power (sixth in HRs), plate patience (third in walks), base stealing skills (38 SBs in 43 attempts), and defense (4th in Revized Zone Rating among CFers and second in Out of Zone plays made). Add it all up and you get just a great centerfielder who finished fourth in Win Shares and second in VORP, which doesn’t even counting his strong defensive contributions.

National League:

#4: Carlos Beltran – If you think that I did a top 4 instead of a top 3 just so that I can get Beltran on this list (say it with me in your best Ed McMahon voice!), you – are – co-rrrrect, sir!!! I’m actually beginning to worry about my propensity to blabber on about this guy. Despite his HR total being lower this year, he still hit well enough to finish in the top 10 in VORP, Runs Created, and extra-base hits. He was third in Win Shares and sixth in walks. And we haven’t even begun to talk about his baserunning skills and defense in center. Although he was only 7th in Revized Zone Rating among NL CFers, he more than makes up for it by easily making the most Out of Zone plays (seriously, it’s not even close).

#3: Lance Berkman – I think it’s odd how little attention has been paid to the Big Puma. Top-5 in BA, OBP, SLG, Runs Scored, Adjusted OPS, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits, and in doing all this also ended up with the most Win Shares in the National League. Played a great first base to boot. It’s really not his fault that Brad Ausmus OPSed BELOW .600. He was a player having a great season on a mediocre team.

#2: Hanley Ramirez – This one hurts. How could I possibly put Han-Ram over Beltran? He deserves it, that’s why. Offensively, Ramirez had a similar season as he did in 2007 – a bit better in OBP, a bit worse in SLG. Didn’t come all that close in SBs, but increased his homerun output. But what I appreciated most about him this year was how much better he had become defensively. His Revised Zone Rating improved dramatically from .773 to .840 (god-awful to very good), and was seventh in Out of Zone. Last year, the only knock I had on him was his defense. Now, I got nothing. He hit 33 HRs. No other shortstop in MLB came close (Hardy was second with 24). He OPSed .940. No other shortstop was even within .100 points of the guy. He’s undoubtedly the best SS in baseball.

#1: Albert Pujols – I know. Ho-hum. But no matter how contrarian I may want to be sometimes, there’s just no way I can deny Pujols this. And that’s all I have to say about that.

I can’t speak for Mets fans everywhere and I’m not going to even try. There are far too many opinions and emotions, each to numerous degrees, for me to oversimplify it all. I can only speak for myself and that’s what I’m going to do. Because I need to get over it. The playoffs are starting and I’m a fan of the game first and foremost. My love for the New York Mets is secondary in comparison although I do forget that sometimes. So if I am going to be able to enjoy October – with or without Dane Cook (but hopefully without) – I need to get over most of the negatives that are going through my mind.

I went to three of the last four games at Shea. I was there on Thursday, Saturday, and yes, I was there yesterday. So let me explain everything in chronological order. I’ll write posts for each of the last three games for entertainment, therapy, and reminiscence.

I’ll begin with Thursday night’s game against the Cubs, which turned into my favorite Met game that I ever attended. And I warn you – this is a long one.

My seats were down at the field level. Section 103, box J, seats 3 and 4. It was the first time all year that I sat so close to the field. Before the first pitch, I was sitting alone in my seat (my brother would be coming later), trying to take it all in. The Mets were making their way to the outfield grass on the first base side, just beyond where the green met the infield dirt. First, it was rookie Daniel Murphy. Then journeyman Ramon Martinez, followed by Ryan Church, Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Delgado. I forgot how old I was and giddily watched them conduct their pre-game warm-ups right in front of me.

Then a group came and sat down in the box to my right. Cubs fans. A couple in the box to my left. More Cubs fans. And as I would soon find out, I was seated amidst what was possibly the most apathetic group of “Mets fans” the city had to offer. And those few that did express any emotion whatsoever simply berated the players for underachieving. Then I looked around the stadium as sprinkles of rain became visible in the lights above the upper deck. It wasn’t near full. The Mets were in a tight race for the playoffs. Four games left in the season. Four games left at Shea. And we couldn’t fill the stadium. I was, in all honesty, embarrassed, but for what I couldn’t explain. Were there so few Mets fans in New York? Were they unwilling to sit through some rain to cheer on their guys? Had the team pushed ticket prices so high that devotees couldn’t afford them? For whatever reason, we were at around 70% capacity.

But as these thoughts were passing through, Pedro Martinez took the mound. And while I cheered on as he threw his warm-ups, I knew we were in for a rough night. A lot of Met fans consider the Pedro Martinez signing to be an overall success. They say that Pedro brought a sense of “respectability” to the organization, and that thanks to him, other free agents were more willing to come play for the Mets. I’m not one of those people. Carlos Beltran did not become a Met because of Pedro Martinez. He came to Queens because that’s where the money was. And none of the other key players on the team signed as free agents. They were either drafted or acquired in a trade. What we got instead was one good year of Pedro out of the four-year contract. And it has been painful to watch his total decline. Read the rest of this entry »

Let me start this post by saying that, at this juncture, with less than a month left in the regular season, I tend to throw all predictive stats out the window. With so little time left, very close divisional races such as the ones we still have in the AL Central, NL East, and NL West, could easily be decided on anomalous occurrences. Orlando Cabrera could far surpass career norms and OPS over 1.000 in September, leading the White Sox into the post season. Newly acquired Matt Stairs could start jacking home runs for the Phillies and allow them to overtake the Mets for the second year in a row. And both Brandon Webb and Danny Haren could completely implode over the final few weeks, and the Dodgers could be crowned division champs.

Are any of these specific events likely to occur? Probably not. But every year, instances akin to these do happen and factor heavily into the playoff picture. The unlikely is expected.

So this is not a post where I am going to predict how the NL East is going to play out in the month of September. Frankly, I think it’s a waste of time even trying to do so. But I do want to assess the current situation, and lay out the things we should be looking at over these final 22 games, especially since the Mets and Phils are locking horns for the last time this year in a three-game series starting tonight.

Can They Keep It Up?

METS: I shake my head a bit at the recent chatter regarding whether or not Carlos Delgado is an MVP candidate. For one, he doesn’t deserve it, and two, it’s unbelievable that I even have to argue against it considering where he was just a couple of months ago. As of the morning of June 26th, Delgado had a .229 BA, .306 OBP, and most surprising of all, a .396 SLG. That’s an OPS barely above .700 for a guy with a career OPS of .925. But during the game on the 26th against the Yankees, Delgado exploded for 2 home runs and a team record 9 RBIs. And since then, his line has been a very impressive .298/.391/.627. To me, it’s the difference in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) that’s most encouraging. And surprising based on his performance during the first 3 months of the season.

PHILLIES: One area of the Phillies that I completely underestimated going into the season was their pitching. As a team, they’ve allowed  only 4.17 runs per game, which is top-three in the National League – and they’re doing it in a hitter’s park. But one guy who was not having much success for the better part of the season was Brett Myers. Through his first 17 starts, Myers was awful. He had an ERA of 5.84, had a worse K-rate (7.9/9) and a walk rate (3.9/9) than his career norms, and an incredibly high home run rate (2.12/9) as well. Then the Phillies did something a bit surprising – they optioned him to the minors in early July, and Myers agreed. And since his return to the bigs on July 23rd, Myers has been outstanding, especially in his past five starts. The Ks are back, the walks and homeruns have all but disappeared, and his ERA has reflected these positive changes (1.43 over 37 2/3 IP). I try to never put too much stock in so few innings, but that 37 2/3 IP are also about as many innings as the Phillies are going to get out of any starting pitcher from this point forth any way. So who says he can’t finish strong too? Myers takes the mound tonight against Mike Pelfrey in the series opener.

Can They Turn It Around?

METS: Pedro Martinez is a totally different pitcher these days, and the change hasn’t  been positive. When he arrived in Flushing back in 2005, he dominated. The following season, he walked a few more hitters and gave up more home runs. It was also during the 2006 campaign that the injuries began. First, it was a hip injury. Then it was his right calf. Then his left calf was torn. Finally, a torn rotator cuff. Season over. There was still some optimism in 2007 when Pedro returned. Despite a serious drop in velocity (couldn’t hit 90 mph any more), the strikeouts were still there, and the walks remained manageable. Yet, even though he had a 2.57 ERA in the five starts he made last year, his line drive % was telling a different story. Hitters were on him, evidenced by the .284 BAA. Predictably, Pedro missed significant time in 2008 as well. When he returned in June, his velocity was higher than last year (88-91mph), but the line drive % remained high – only this time, the strikeouts were down, walks were up, and he’s been giving up homeruns at a career high rate. As of this writing, his ERA is 5.07 and it’s no fluke. Can Pedro stay healthy and keep the ball down? Pedro is scheduled to get the ball on Saturday.

PHILLES: In 2007, the Phils averaged a whopping 5.51 runs scored per game. This year, they’re at 4.83, which is still good, but is also a noticeable drop. From here in New York, it seems that the media and fans are mostly attributing the decrease in production to Jimmy Rollins. But the bigger problem has been with Ryan Howard. His BA, OBP, and SLG have all decreased quite a bit for two consecutive seasons now. His sufficient HR (39) and RBI (119) numbers appear to be masking his .325 OBP. And although a .502 SLG is nothing to scoff at, it is a cause for concern when he had a .584 last year and .659 the season before that. Add it all together and his adjusted OPS is a 109 – which is a bit low for a first baseman, and especially so for a guy with Howard’s reputation. Unless he is hiding an injury, I don’t think that this is a decline just yet. He could very realistically go berserk in September.

Will They Get Noticed?

METS: I’m continually amazed at how little appreciation Carlos Beltran receives from Mets fans. Perhaps some false expectations were created by his career year in 2006 when he crushed 41 home runs in his second season in a Mets uniform. Or perhaps it’s because he’s been put into the clean-up spot 108 times this year and we’ve come to expect more power from that position in the batting order. Beltran may never hit 40 dingers again, but here’s what you can count on him for – one of the top defensive centerfielders in the game with good pop, a very strong ability to get on base and plus speed. As viewers, it’s easy to be impressed by diving catches and leaping grabs at the wall. They guys who are underappreciated are those who are so good they get to the ball fast enough so they don’t have to dive. Beltran’s one of those guys. And he’s also one of those guys who can appear to be able to win games all by himself. We haven’t seen that Beltran yet in 2008.

PHILLIES: When most people think of the Phillies lineup, the names that immediately come to mind are Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Burrell. But Jayson Werth is the guy who has impressed me most so far this year. This is a gentleman that walks, is slugging over .500, manages to steal bases without getting caught, and still somehow finds a way to give a stray badger shelter below his lower lip. Multi-tasking. Werth hasn’t been great against righties (.790 OPS) but absolutely kills lefties (1.051 OPS and 1 HR every 8.87 ABs). If he could get that OPS vs. righties up just a bit, he’d really be something pretty special.

I’ve got about an hour until game time, so I’ve gotta go on my way. Enjoy the series, UmpBumpers!

Umpbump goes both ways.

Wait. Let me rephrase.

Umpbumpers are givers and takers.

Still sounds wrong. One more time.

A collision between player/manager and umpire does not necessarily have to be instigated by the player/manager. The inverse still holds true.

There. Nothing sexy about that.

Anyhow, it’s true. While most of us think of an umpbump as an act committed by an angry player or manager, Tuesday night’s game between the Mets and Mariners proved that this is not necessarily the case.

In the bottom of the fourth inning, Carlos Beltran takes a called strike that he thought was low and verbalizes his opinion to home plate umpire Brian Runge. In turn, Runge takes off his mask, approaches Beltan and says something back. For some reason, Runge then cleans home plate (which already looked whiter than a Kenny Loggins concert) while continuing to have a terse dialogue with Mets centerfielder. The new New York manager, Jerry Manuel, then runs out of the dugout to make sure Beltran doesn’t say something to get himself ejected. And then… that happened:

(NOTE: Crap. Video was removed from the site)

It’s clear from the video that Manuel wasn’t exactly having a friendly exchange with Runge from the get-go. But it’s also clear that Runge lunges forward and bumps Manuel in the chest. Understandably upset, Manuel reacts for one second before Runge decides to throw Manuel out.

Let’s repeat that again. The umpire bumps the manager. Manager reacts to the contact. Umpire throws manager out of the game. Makes total sense, right?

After Manuel’s exit, Beltran now is fuming at the way his manager was treated and again lets Runge know how he felt. And naturally, Beltran is tossed as well.

After the game, here’s what Carlos had to say about the incident:

“After what he did to Jerry I really got mad. Because he really bumped Jerry to get an excuse to throw him out of the game. I just let him know that that was weak. This is the first time that I’ve been so angry in my career and I feel like I have a reason. If I get punished for my actions, he should get punished for his actions, also, because that was horrible.”

And here’s what Brian Runge had to say:

“I’ve got nothing to say.”

Classy guy, that Brian Runge.

Video from SNY.TV via MetsBlog.

New York Times sportswriter, George Vecsey, penned a wonderfully ridiculous article in today’s edition, essentially playing the role of party pooper in the Johan Santana celebration. Why? Quite frankly, I’m not sure. And I’m not convinced that George knows either. He writes:

Omar Minaya may ice the deal for Johan Santana any hour now but, until further notice, the Mets are still the team that fell apart last September, disastrously.

The Mets still have to report to their legion of self-appointed probation officers, that is to say, Mets fans, on a regular basis from now until October to prove they are not recidivists in the worrisome habit of folding.

Actually, George, in case you didn’t notice, the majority of us Mets fans (rightly or wrongly), are quite happy at the moment. If we really are the “probation officers”, then the ex-con just dropped off James “Whitey” Bulger on our front doorstep.

I would strongly advise giddy Mets fans to envision the Marlins and the Nationals whacking them around in the final two weeks of last season. That should neutralize the euphoria, assuming Minaya and the family Wilpon sign the Twins’ star lefty to a six-year contract.

Why would we want to do that? That sounds about as much fun as punching yourself in the groin repeatedly just to prevent yourself from making a move on that incredibly cute girl standing across the room and giving you that ‘come hither’ stare. It’s completely irrational.

Essentially, the Mets are front-ending their pitching staff — Santana for the departed Tom Glavine. That upgrade does not necessarily make them a better…

And this is where Vecsey’s logic supernovas into a blackhole. Is he really arguing that keeping Tom Glavine may actually have been preferable to adding Johan Santana? Do I even need to post comparative statistics to prove how inane that suggestion is?

Even if Santana stays healthy, he is 28, and pitchers can fall apart in a heartbeat. For that matter, he did not have such a wonderful September himself.

See, George, you were so freaking close to making a coherent statement with that first sentence. Yes, pitchers (moreso than hitters) are a fragile bunch. But “he is 28″ is your argument? 28 is too old for you? I’m 27 and am still waiting to hit puberty for god’s sakes (any day now…). And picking one freaking month – 5 games – out of a pitcher’s 251-game career (that’s less than 2% of games he’s appeared for those who care) simply doesn’t make sense.

Besides, he can start only once every five games, or somewhat more than 30 starts a season.

Do I need to continue? Fine. I’ll keep going. By this logic, no starting pitcher in MLB is worth much of anything since they “can only start once every five games”. But Jon Rauch is more valuable because he pitched decently in 88 games.

Let’s say (Santana) wins 20 games. He is still taking up a certain number of starts that would have been made, and perhaps even won, by another regular.

I’m not even going to talk about VORP to get my point across. But this is like trying to minimize the impact of Alex Rodriguez by making a case for Wilson Betemit. Had the Mets not landed Santana, they would have trotted Mike Pelfrey – or even worse, signed Livan Hernandez – instead.

Little has changed since last September. Paul Lo Duca is being replaced by Brian Schneider at catcher, maybe an upgrade in defense and comportment but a downgrade in hitting, and they now have Ryan Church in right field, not necessarily a big deal.

Um, have you forgotten what you were writing about in the first place? Isn’t the whole point of this article to talk about the Mets trading for Johan Santana? That’s a “little change”?

The core of the team remains the same. Moises Alou was a rock last September, but he turns 42 this summer. David Wright is terrific, but not yet the assertive leader he may be someday. Carlos Beltrán has his moments.

You know something’s wrong when Moises Alou is described as “a rock” but Carlos Beltran – arguably the best all round centerfielder in baseball – is diminished to a “has his moments”.

On a team constructed with veteran players, many of them Latino, no critical mass of leadership emerged to shake Reyes out of his walkabout… It appears that nobody took Reyes into the back room and said, “¿Qué tal?”— what’s up?

See, now you’re just guessing to make a point. And not only that, what does being Latino have anything to do with anything?

Ultimately, you can make the case that the Mets shouldn’t have traded away their future. I disagree given the supposed talent levels of the prospects headed to Minnesota, but at least it’s a plausible argument. You can make the case that no pitcher deserves such a lengthy guaranteed deal and logistically speaking, you’d be right. But for a big-market team like the Mets – with their own cable network and a new stadium opening in 2009, the financial damage isn’t completely crippling.

But what doesn’t make sense is trying to argue that the 2008 Mets are not a better team now than they were last week. It doesn’t make sense to insinuate that keeping Tom Glavine instead of acquiring the best pitcher in baseball may have been the right move. And even Vecsey himself can’t believe that Carlos Beltran is simply a player who “has his moments”.

AAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

See what you did, George? You reduced me to doing a terrible Lewis Black impersonation. I hope you’re happy, sir.

Carlos Beltran on his reluctant curtain call at Shea on Thursday:

“Like I say, at the beginning, I don’t feel like doing it, but I just put myself in the situation of what would God have done in a situation like that. You know, I’m a Christian guy, and after getting booed the first two days, and all of a sudden you come through and get a hit and all of a sudden they want you to go out in a curtain call, I put myself right there and I do believe God would have gone out.” – New York Post.

(Thanks Paul)