What could I say about the future of the Houston Astros that won’t make me sound like a hater?

…

Well…

You can still probably get away with calling Carlos Lee “pudgy” instead of “obese”. Does that count?

The 2008 Houston Astros was the oldest squad in the National League. Out of those who accumulated at least 200 ABs last season, only Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence were younger than 30. Wandy Rodriguez was the only 20-something pitcher who started at least four games – and he was 29. If you’re this old, then you’d better be good. But the Astros weren’t. Sure, they won 86 games but they were outscored by their opponents by 31 runs for the year. This was very much a run-of-the-mill team except for the fact that the vast majority of their roster are on the downsides of their careers. And with their last remaining prospects dealt away in the Miguel Tejada trade, there’s no help in the pipeline. Their short term future is mediocrity, which will be immediately followed by awfulness. Unless, of course, they do what they should have done a year ago and blow up the team.

After a great season, Lance Berkman’s value is not going to be this high ever again. The Big Puma (he looks more like a bear to me… Can we just call him the Bear instead?) turned in one of the best offensive years of his career with a line of .312/.420/.567. That’s not to say that moving him will be easy. Berkman’s contract is guaranteed until 2010 with a team option in 2011. However, he also has a full no-trade clause. Would guaranteeing that 2011 option year plus playing for a contending team be enough to coax Berkman into waiving that no-trade? It’s possible. But whomever takes that deal will pay him $44M over the next three years, so the guy’s not cheap. Furthermore, he’ll be 33 come Opening Day which should give teams pause before pulling the trigger. When it’s all said and done, however, Berkman will be more valuable to another team than he’s going to be in Houston over those three seasons.

A similar case could be made for Ty Wigginton, who unexpectedly had an OPS+ of 128 while primarily playing third base. Unless Chipper Jones becomes a free agent this offseason, Wigginton would probably attract far more interest than any other third baseman on the market.

As for the other big names, taller obstacles would need to be cleared. Ace Roy Oswalt is still among the best in the National League but his contract is long and huge (that’s what she said). The 31 year-old is due $45MM over the next three seasons plus a team option and no-trade. And with his slight frame (listed at 6 feet, 170lbs), there will be questions regarding future durability. Tejada only has one year remaining on his deal, but it’s for $13MM and he hit like an average shortstop as an Astro with subpar defense thrown in. Plus, Carlos Lee is an immovable object, literally and figuratively (although I don’t know which is which). Two years ago, the Astros signed him to an absurd $100MM deal that runs through 2012. Lee is still expected to be an offensive contributor for the near future, but I just cannot fathom someone taking on that contract.

Will this fix everything? Absolutely not. For one, Ed Wade is their GM so I can’t be confident that he’ll be able to get anything worthwhile in return even if he were to wheel and deal. And this is an organization with no young cornerstone players (although Pence has a shot to fill that role) so it’s going to be a long climb back into contention. Perhaps I am being too bullish about the NL Central next season but I just cannot foresee a scenario where the Houston Astros have much of a shot.

If you were to twist my arm, however, and dare me to give this team and their fans a reason to hope in 2009, here’s what must happen.

It would be a given that all of last year’s contributors would have to stay healthy. Ones of the J.R.s – Towles or House – would have to become at least a good option at the catcher’s spot because Brad Ausmus is awful and should not be brought back. Miguel Tejada needs to reverse his decline and prove that his poor season was a fluke. Hunter Pence needs to learn how to take a pitch and raise his OBP above .350 to be considered a good player in my book. And although I’m not a fan of his defense, Pence also ought to be moved back to centerfield. His defense won’t help you much, but his bat will profile better there than at the corner OF spots. Why is the defensive hit worth it? Cuz’ Michael Bourn should never start. Ever. He’s a defensive replacement until he proves otherwise. Or they can go out and sign Jim Edmonds. Although a repeat of his Chicago success is unlikely, the guy’s convinced me that he’s not quite done yet. At the very least, if he can repeat his plate discipline and defense, he’d be an upgrade.

On the mound, the Astros have two above-average pitchers in Oswalt and Wandy. But beyond that, there’s not much. Bringin Randy Wolf back is a possibility, but his past performances indicate that his numbers in Houston last year are simply unrepeatable. Chris Sampson is an underrated arm and he can solidify the back of a rotation. For the other spots, Wade should be looking for pitchers who can keep the ball down against right-handed hitters since the short left field porch at Minute Maid Park is a killer (another reason why Wolf is probably a bad match). Why not take a crack at Brad Penny on a one-year deal? Their division hopes are a roll of the dice anyway. May as well make this one a high-risk pick.

- What They Need Index -

It was a condensed fantasy week, what with the All Star break and all, but the results had a big impact on our standings—and our rosters.

Sarah: My Somerville Green Sox whupped Coley’s Crunkball All Stars, 7-4, mostly thanks to the pitching categories. My hurlers were no great shakes, but Coley’s got shellacked. Anyway, as a result of the win, I jumped from 6th to 4th place in our league—despite falling from 17 games behind to 20. I’ll take it. Hot: Andy Pettitte, Ryan Braun, Troy Glaus, James Loney, Matt Kemp. Not: Ian Kinsler (that has to be a first), Jacoby Ellsbury (le sigh), Brian Wilson.

Coley: I did indeed get smoked this week. But let’s not dwell on the past. Let’s look ahead to the future, which is bright after I made yet another blockbuster trade, this time sending Josh Hamilton and Jered Weaver to Alejandro for Josh Beckett, Carlos Lee and Conor Jackson. I love this trade. I dealt Hamilton at his peak value, only a couple of days after his home run derby heroics. Weaver, meanwhile, offers more hype than hope and will struggle to reach 100 K’s this season. In return I get an RBI machine (Lee), an OBP machine (Jackson) and an ace pitcher (Beckett). But that’s not all. Losing Hamilton and inheriting Lee and Jackson left me with an excess of corner outfielders, but no center fielder. So I turned around and traded Brandon Philips for Alfonso Soriano, who comes off the DL this week. That left me with a vacancy at second base, so I shifted Chone Figgins from third base to second. Now I have a hole at third. I could pick up Scott Rolen or Hank Blalock off the scrap heap. But, more than likely, I’ll make yet another blockbuster trade. Stay tuned! Hot: Mark Teixeira. Not: all of my starting pitchers.

Paul: It’s not too uncommon for me to get stopped on the streets of Manhattan by fans. Oh, not fans of UmpBump. Just, fans of ME. And a lot of them have asked, “Paul, you have so many fantasy baseball skills. How do you not let that go to your head? How can you possibly remain so grounded and approachable?” And every time, I’ll answer honestly and gently from atop my diamond-encrusted, gold-plated throne made from the only known remnants of the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, telling them “I don’t know. I just don’t know”. And that humility isn’t going to change just because I won yet again this past week. Yes, Pirates in ‘08 (Bryan) were vanquished 11-1. David Wright led the offense, followed closely by Marcus Thames, Adam Dunn, and Matt Holliday, as all four had two homers a piece in this break-shortened week. And the pitching side was strong as well, with Justin Duchscherer, Scott Baker, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, and Ted Lilly all pitching well during their starts. At this rate, my modesty is REALLY going to be tested very soon. In fact, I think I’ll have to become the man I was destined to be – the most modestest organism (living, dead, or imagined) ever to have walked, swam, breathed, skipped, or frolicked on this planet or any other. I have enough confidence in myself to do this (PS: I hate myself). Hot: David Wright, Adam Dunn, Marcus Thames, C.C. Sabathia, Scott Baker. Not: Hiroki Kuroda, Shane Victorino, Geovany Soto.

Alejandro: A short week with lots of surprises. I don’t think the narrow 6-5-1 victory is reflective of how my team will perform in the second half; however, I’m not standing pat. I traded for Josh Hamilton (even though I think i broke the bank: Carlos Lee and Conor Jackson) to amp my RBI production. I gave up Josh Beckett too simply because he has been getting tagged for too many runs, no matter how many K’s he collects (though I should’ve checked Jered Weaver’s ERA before hitting the accept trade button). WIll my quest to get better RBI production be shot by giving away two hot hitters for the league-leader in RBI’s? We shall find out. Hot: Carlos Delgado, Aaron Rowand, Conor Jackson, Manny Parra, Billy Wagner, Vicente Padilla (way to go kid). Not: Josh Beckett, Mike Pelfrey, Tim Lincecum.

Standings (games behind):

1. Paul – ElDuquesInjuryReport ( – )
2. Scott – Utley’s Firm Quads ( 11.5 )
3. Alejandro – Center Field Stud ( 16 )
4. Sarah – Somerville Green Sox ( 20.5 )
5. Doug – Swamp Dragons ( 21.5 )
6. Kirk – Montefusco’s Revenge ( 23 )
7. Ania – Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 30 )
8. Larry – croutchyoldman ( 35.5 )
9. Bryan – Pirates in ‘08! ( 43.5 )
10. Coley – Crunkball All-Stars ( 44.5 )
11. Caitlin – caitlin grace ( 45 )
12. Sooze – freebase my balls ( 51 )

This is one of a series of posts in which belittle each team for their befuddling offseason blunders, and possibly praise them for any prescient pre-season pickups.

The Astros were in deep trouble even before the offseason started. Even before Ed Wade started his wheelings and dealings to drive this once-proud franchise even further into the ground.

I know these posts are supposed to focus on what happened during this current offseason, but I think it would be difficult to understand exactly how fast and how breathtakingly far this organization has fallen without a bit of a recap on the past year.

It is almost hard to remember that just two years ago, the Astros were representing the National League in the World Series, and coming off nearly a decade as perennial contenders in the NL Central, including six playoff appearances in nine years.

But that all changed a year ago when the Astros had just about one of the worst offseasons imaginable. Things began when the Astros lost 2/3 of their rotation by making no effort to re-sign Andy Pettite, and consequently, lost Roger Clemens as well. The Astros attempted to fill this gaping hole with Woody Williams, but grossly overpaid for a 41-year-old pitcher whose numbers had been greatly enhanced by pitching in the best pitcher’s park in baseball for all those years in San Diego.

The Astros also tried to make a splash by signing Carlos Lee, but even at the time, many questioned giving a 6-year contract to one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of baseball who was already in his 30s and already seemed to be having signficant problems with his weight.

But the biggest blow of all was when the Astros inexplicably and bafflingly traded fan favorite centerfielder Willy Taveras as well as their two best pitching prospects, Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz, to the Rockies for pitcher Jason Jennings, who had just one year remaining on his contract.

Not surprisingly, most of us here at UmpBump predicted disaster for the 2007 Astros, and our predictions were borne out in almost every way possible. While Pettite pitched well for the Yankees, and Taveras helped the Rockies reach the World Series, putative no. 2 starter Woody Williams fell off a cliff to an 8-15 record and a 5.27 ERA, Lee gained 30 pounds, won the NL GIDP title, cost the team 16 runs with his defense, and broke shortstop Adam Everett’s leg, and Jennings, who had come at such a high price, never looked right all year, posting an execrable 2-9 record with a 6.45 ERA. Overall, the team stumbled to a 73-89 mark, its worst record in eight years, and both manager Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura lost their jobs.

Thus the Astros headed into the 2008 offseason in desperate need of a creative reboot. Despite the fact that they were locked into the bad contract with Lee and had a barren farm system, there was some reason for hope that the team might head in a new direction and launch a long awaited youth movement, now that the Craig Biggio farewell tour was over, Biggio was safely retired at least two seasons later than he should have, and the battle cries of “we have to try one more time to win a World Series for poor Craig Biggio” could be laid to rest.

Unfortunately, the man the Astros hired to replace Purpura, former Phillies GM Ed Wade, was simply not the right man to take the Astros in a creative new direction.

To be as fair as is possible to Wade, he was handed a pretty bad hand, given orders from owner Drayton McClain to put a contender on the field rather than rebuild, and handed one of the worst collections of talent in baseball. If we give points for trying hard, we have to admit that Wade has certainly been very active this winter, and has tried his very best within the limits of his understanding to improve the team.

It’s just that pretty much every decision he has made has been questionable. At the very least, it would have been wise for Wade to try his best to hang on to whatever prospects he had left, but instead he completely traded away every last near-major-league-ready prospect or marginal prospect the Astros had left in order to land Miguel Tejada and closer Jose Valverde, completely emptying the cupboard and taking what had been one of the five worst minor-league systems in baseball and turning it into the absolute worst.

Wade compounded mistakes by deciding to keep Tejada at shortstop. This made no sense, since Tejada’s defense is no longer even adequate at shortstop, and the Astros already had one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball firmly under control in Adam Everett. It would have been a perfect chance to shift Tejada to third, where the Astros had a gaping hole in the form of Ty Wigginton, a player who can nominally play any position on the diamond, but only because he is equally terrible at all of them. But instead, Wade decided to keep Tejada at short, and keep Wigginton – a player even the Devil Rays didn’t want. He then actually non-tendered Everett – one of the top two or three defensive shortstops in all of baseball – losing a valuable player that was still under the team’s control and getting nothing in return, while insuring that any gain to the offense from what pop remains in Tejada’s unjuiced bat will be negated by the absolutely abominable left-side defense.

Mistakes continued in other areas as well. While Valverde is a useful player, his acquisition necessitated the trading away of the Astros’ last remaining major-league ready pitching prospect. And the whole reason Wade had needed to get Valverde in the first place was that he had traded away incumbent closer Brad Lidge to the Phillies to get one of his old favorites from his days in Philadelphia, centerfielder Michael Bourn. Although Bourn is an exciting speedster and a well-liked teammate, he is projected by most systems to be a fourth outfielder type at best so one has to wonder if will help the Astros much at all.

Finally, there is the awful signing of Kazuo Matsui to a 3-year, $16.5 million deal. I almost can’t express in words what a terrible idea this was. It reeks of big-name-itis, a desire to get someone, anyone, who might have been affiliated with the Rockies’ magic mojo of last season, and a complete lack of understanding about how ballparks might affect hitting numbers. Given that he was playing half his games in Coors Field last season, Matsui’s batting numbers are truly frightening, and we can expect a severe drop off as he returns to sea level. One wonders if Matsui’s numbers next season would be better than even another season of Craig Biggio, as bad as Biggio was in recent years.

So where do all Ed Wade’s moves this leave the Astros in 2008? In the NL Central cellar, alongside the Pirates, and with a very dim future.

The Astros offense should be okay, but with the loss of Lidge, Chad Qualls, and Dan Wheeler they have not much bullpen after Valverde, they have one of the worst infield defenses in the major leagues, and they have perhaps the worst rotation in all of baseball, despite the presence of ace Roy Oswalt (I mean seriously, Wandy Rodriguez is the number two starter?!?!). You are also talking about a team with the worst farm system in all of baseball, a meddling owner who interferes with his GM, a hide-bound GM stuck in old ways of thinking, and no hope of doing anything at all at any time in the anywhere near future.

In other words, in just two short years the Astros have gone from World Series runners-up to the worst organization in all of baseball.

Offseason Grade: D

Additions: SS Miguel Tejada, CL Jose Valverde, 2B Kazuo Matsui, CF Michael Bourn, CF Darin Erstad, OF Jose Cruz Jr., RHP Shawn Chacon, UT Geoff Blum, RHP Oscar Villareal, RHP Doug Brocail, RHP Geoff Geary, RHP Chad Paronto, OF Reggie Abercrombie

Losses: 2B Craig Biggio, RHP Brad Lidge, SS Adam Everett, RHP Chad Qualls, 3B Mike Lamb, OF Luke Scott, 2B Chris Burke, UT Eric Bruntlett, LHP Trever Miller, RHP Matt Albers,

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

CF Michael Bourn – .277/.348/.378, 18 SB

2B Kaz Matsui – .288/.342/.405, 32 SB

SS Miguel Tejada – .296/.357/.442, 18 HR

1B Lance Berkman – .278/.386/.510, 34 HR

LF Carlos Lee – .303/.354/.528, 32 HR

RF Hunter Pence – .322/.360/.539, 17 HR

3B Ty Wigginton – .278/.333/.459, 22 HR

C J.R. Towles – .375/.432/.575, 14 ML games

RHP Roy Oswalt – 14-7, 3.18

LHP Wandy Rodriguez – 9-13, 4.58

RHP Brandon Backe – 3-1, 3.77

RHP Woody Williams – 8-15, 5.27

RHP Chris Sampson – 7-8, 4.59

CL Jose Valverde – 47 SV, 2.66

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

The Astros have signed Carlos Lee for $100 million. That’s right, the big guy is going to be making in excess of $16 million per year for six years.

That’s a lot of money. It’s hard to even picture what that much money would look like. For those of you who can’t wrap your mind around the prospect of a paycheck that large, let umpbump put it in terms that you (and fat Carlos) can understand.

$100 million could buy:

119,047,619 Krispy Kreme glaze donuts

34,482,759 Big Macs

14,285,714 Six-packs of Budweiser

26,666,667 pints of Ben & Jerry’s Chunky Monkey ice cream

Lee is listed at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds and there have been questions about him being out of shape. Questions like, “Are they feeding that guy in between innings?” and “Should we be worried that he might try and eat Willie Taveras?”

Phillies GM Pat Gillick, who reportedly tried to sign Lee after first missing out on the much slimmer Alfonso Soriano, was quoted the other day saying, “Lee is a heck of an athlete.” Gillick is right. Lee is a heck of an athlete, in the same way that Kobayashi is a heck of an athlete.

Why wasn’t Gillick worried about Lee’s weight? The same reason the Astros aren’t worried. They know something many people don’t: uniforms with vertical pinstripes are slimming.

Gary Matthews signed with the Angels today. He got $10 million a year over five years. That’s right, the Angels paid a 31-year old centerfielder $50 million. A guy who, until this year, hit .250 over his career.

Matthews is a fine player. He was an all-star this year. Seems like a real good guy. Comes from a baseball family. And maybe he really has turned a corner as a hitter. But $50 million?

“Guys learn at different times in their careers,” Angels GM Bill Stoneman said. “Gary’s coming into his own.”

Okaaaaaaaaay. Sure he is. Just like Adrien Beltre came into his own a few years ago. When are GMs ever going to learn that it’s a bad idea to hand out monster contracts to guys who put together one solid year after 10 years of mediocrity?

Even if Matthews can put together a couple more .300 seasons, $10 million per is a real stretch. I mean, really, $50 million? That’s a ton of money.

Plenty of players have parlayed fluke years into monster contracts. Many of those players, we’ve come to find out, did so with the benefit of some designer drugs. But Matthews may be the first that I can remember to score a big deal on the strength of one spectacular play. You know the one I’m talking about.

[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzp6ny0rtAA[/video]

You know what? On second thought, if I were a GM, I think I might shell out $50 million to Matthews on the off chance that he might make a catch like that again, this time for my team. Wow. Wowie, wow, wow, wow.

In other hot stove news, the Carlos Lee sweepstakes seems to be heating up. And, really, your guess is as good as mine as to who will end up with Lee. Everybody seems to think it’ll come down to three teams, but nobody seems to be able to agree which three teams. I’ve heard the Orioles, Astros, and Phillies are all serious contenders. But the Giants and Rangers have also been mentioned as possibilities, and you’ve got to think the Giants are more of a player after losing Moises Alou and then losing out on Matthews. An AL team would almost certainly be a better fit for Lee, who is growing fatter by the day. At the rate he’s going, he’ll be forced into DH duty buy July. If he signs with an NL team, he’ll eventually be too fat to play anything but first base. You’d think that would prevent the Phillies from signing him, since they already have a pretty good fat firstbaseman. But then again, Pat Gillick seems desperate to sign a slugger.

From the “don’t hold your breath” department, rumors persist that the Red Sox will try to convince Roger Clemens to become their closer, and that the Angels will trade for Andruw Jones. First of all, Clemens isn’t a closer. Second he likes to spend off days with his family, and closers need to be available everyday. So it just isn’t going to happen. As for Andruw, he’s got a no trade clause and doesn’t seem interested in going anywhere until after this season, when he will become a free agent and should command money similar to what Alfonso Soriano just got.

Well, the first mega-deal of the trade deadline week finally came down today, as Carlos Lee was delt to Texas along with minor leaguer Nelson Cruz for Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, Francisco Cordero, and minor league hurler Julian Cordero (no relation to Francisco).

Maybe I just don’t know the full story or something, but this seems like a horrible deal for the Brewers.  Despite what you think about Alfonso Soriano’s alleged greatness, Carlos Lee was probably the best outfielder out there on the market, projected by Baseball Prospectus to add about 11.9 runs over a replacement player down the stretch, whereas Soriano is projected to add only 8.8 runs.  (As an aside, assuming that teams are replacing a slightly better than replacement level player with Lee or Soriano, and given that 10 runs only equals about one extra win in the standings, the whole point of trading for someone at the deadline is somewhat called into question).

Meanwhile, Laynce Nix and Kevin Mench have proven to be fourth outfielders, at best, and Francisco Cordero is a headcase who not only once assaulted a fan with a chair but also blew a Major League record 5 saves in a single month earlier this season.

But worst of all, the Brewer’s best option to replace Lee in left field next year was none other than Nelson Cruz, who was batting .302 with 22 doubles, 20 home runs, 73 RBI and 17 stolen bases in 104 games for the Brewers AAA afilliate in Nashville.

So the Brewers not only got crap in return for the best outfielder on the market, but they actually gave away his replacement to seal the deal.

Um.