Before the season started, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said he thought his team had a chance to break the franchise record for most runs scored – 944. Just how close are the Phillies to that goal? Let’s check in.

The Phils started off a little slow. They scored 127 runs in 27 games in April, good for 10th in MLB. Then they got scorching hot, scoring 175 runs in 29 games in May, more than any other team that month. So far in June, they’ve been just so-so, scoring 40 runs in 9 games.

All told, the Phils have scored 342 runs in 65 games, or 5.26 runs per game. If they keep up that rate, they’ll score 510 runs over the next 97 games, for a total of 852 runs. That’s obviously far short of the record.

But what if you’re of the opinion that the Phillies turned a corner in May and that they’ll continue their hot hitting for the rest of the season? Since May 1, the Phils have averaged 5.66 runs per game. If they keep it up, they’ll score 548 runs over the next 97 games, for a total of 890 runs. That’s still well short of what they need.

But, what if you are extremely optimistic and figure that the Phils will repeat their May success in June, July, August and September? That would mean scoring 6.03 runs over the remaining 97 games. If the Phillies do that, they will finish with a total of 927 runs – still 17 runs shy of the record.

A more realistic goal would be simply topping last season’s mark of 892 runs. That’s within reach, though hardly a gimme.

While we’re on the topic of Phillies records, what about Jimmy Rollins’ stated goal of winning 100 games? Can the Phillies pull that off? So far the team is 39-27. That means a winning percentage of .591. If they maintain that pace they’ll win 57 more games, for a cumulative record of 96-66. That would be a little short of 100, but it would make my preseason prediction of 95 wins look pretty smart.

Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Bob Ford thinks Charlie Manuel should be the NL Manager of the Year.

Apparently, Ford was hired way back in the day, before the Inky started administering drug tests.

From the Inquirer:

Somewhere amid the chatter and static of another sports week, woven in among the bluster of bloggers, the pontification of pundits and the wanderings of writers, was the notion that Manny Acta of Washington should be the National League manager of the year.

I can’t remember who said it, or why, but the idea was out there, a contrarian view quickly followed by an of-course-he-won’t-win-it-because disclaimer of the sort that gets the writer off the hook before he can be dragged flopping and breathless into the bottom of the boat.

Manny Acta.

Well, there are stranger ideas and here’s another one for you:

Charlie Manuel is the NL manager of the year, and the vote shouldn’t even be close.

Manuel certainly isn’t the worst manager in the league. But is he the best?

To find out, lets do a little statistical analysis. Let’s compare how many games Manuel was supposed to win, based on the number of runs his team has scored and the number allowed, with the number of games his team has actually won (an old trick pioneered by Bill James).

What we find after we crunch the numbers is that Manuel has had zero impact on the 2007 Phillies, whose expected record is the same as their actual record — 66 wins.

Who has had the greatest impact on his team? By far it has been Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin, who has guided his team to 12 more wins than one might expect. In fact, the Diamondbacks are, thus far, among the greatest overachievers in history. Arizona’s expected winning percentage is .471. The team’s actual win percentage is .562.

That’s huge. No, really. HUGE.

How are the Diamondbacks doing it? They’re winning one-run games. A lot of them.

According to the Arizona Republic, as of Aug. 8 the Diamondbacks led the majors in number of one-run games (40) and one-run wins (25). The Dodgers had 21 one-run victories, and four teams were tied for third with 20.

Call me crazy, but close games are where managers earn their keep, right? Right.

Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa wins honorable mention for guiding his team back into the playoff chase and helping it to win six more games than one would ordinarily expect. And for staying awake at the wheel all season long.

But really, it isn’t close. Melvin is your NL manager of the year (and of the decade, for that matter).

And on a side note, I think it might be time for Bob Ford to find a new beat. Either he’s clueless, or he’s just writing to get a rise out of his readership (the majority of whom are no great fans of Manuel). Either way, I’m not impressed.

Well, it happened. Phils manager Charlie Manuel finally lost it. During a press conference following yet another Phillies loss, local radio personality Howard Eskin asked Manuel why he never seemed to get very upset. Then Manuel showed Eskin just how upset he can get.

From the Philadelphia Daily News:

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel was provoked by a local radio personality in the postgame news conference who asked why Manuel didn’t show more anger in news conferences, a la Cubs manager Lou Piniella, or why he hadn’t upbraided his underachieving team 12 games into the season.

Manuel - nicknamed “Red Devil” when he played in Japan because of his explosive temper - challenged his questioner to meet him in Manuel’s office, where, Manuel promised, he would display temper.

And, there, Manuel did, for several minutes, loudly enough to be heard from 20 yards away through closed doors. Manuel’s point: He does get mad, and he resented what he considers the radio host’s continual unfair criticism of Manuel.

After that confrontation, Manuel, on his way through the clubhouse, resumed hollering at the radio personality when they locked eyes. A Phillies coach and a media relations representative ushered Manuel, spewing profanity, out the back of the clubhouse.

Now, before you take sides here, there’s a few things you need to know about Eskin. He is the personification of everything that’s wrong with Philadelphia sports. His mission is to sabotage the careers of players, coaches and executives who he doesn’t like. He’s a no talent nerd who talks just to hear the sound of his own voice. He’s neither an accomplished athlete or journalist. He’s been suspended twice for fabricating stories. He belittles his callers. He’s racist, sexist, and generally awful in every way.And he’s creepy. From Wikipedia:

Off the air in 1997, Howard’s name surfaced involving a murder case of Marlene Stumpf. Stumpf was a 46 year-old married woman from Pottstown, Pennsylvania posing in chat rooms as a 25 year-old cheerleader named “Brandice”, and engaged in some provocative chat room discussions with Howard. Howard had sensed the woman was depressed and typed, “Why don’t you give me your address, and I’ll send you a little something.” Howard kept his word and sent Stumpf some flowers. A few days later, Stumpf was found murdered. Her husband confessed to the crime and was arrested.

It’s probably not fair to suggest that Eskin caused this woman’s death. Then again, Eskin has never bothered much with fairness.

The least shocking thing about the Manuel-Eskin blow up? After Manuel gave Eskin exactly  what he was looking for — a show of passion — Eskin mocked him and told him to “grow up.”

Typical Howard Eskin. The Philadelphia airwaves would be a much better place without him.

If Phillies manager Charlie Manuel doesn’t get his team off to a good start next season, the team has a Plan B. It also has a Plan C and a Plan D.

The Phils have hired former managers Art Howe, Davie Lopes, and Jimy Williams as coaches. Williams will be the bench coach and coordinate spring training. Howe will be the third-base coach and infield instructor. Lopes will be the first-base coach and baserunning and outfield instructor.

Phils GM Pat Gillick says Manuel had a say in picking his new coaches:

General manager Pat Gillick said that while the front office was involved in the hiring process last week in Clearwater, Fla., Manuel ultimately made the call to fire and hire his coaches. There had been speculation that Gillick had forced Manuel’s hand.

Sources said others interviewed included former Detroit manager Alan Trammell; Lou Piniella’s bench coach in Seattle and Tampa Bay, John McClaren; Scranton/Wilkes-Barre manager John Russell; and Lakewood manager Dave Huppert.

“The manager is in charge of his department,” Gillick said. “He runs his department. I wouldn’t want to make any changes unless he felt he wanted to get better. Charlie came and spoke to me regarding the coaches: Can we get better? Can we improve our coaching staff? He said he’d like to try to improve it.”

Here’s a look at the Phils three new coaches and what they’ve done in the past:

Art Howe has managed the Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics, and New York Mets. His record in 14 seasons is 1,129-1,137 (a winning percentage of .498). Three of his A’s teams reached the playoffs.

Davey Lopes was 144-195 (.425) as manager of the Milwaukee Brewers from 2000 to ‘02. His teams did not make the playoffs.

Jimy Williams is 910-790 (.535) in 12 seasons as manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Astros. He was the American League’s manager of the year with Boston in 1999. Four of his teams reached the playoffs.

This is NOT what you want to hear from the manager of your favorite team. Yesterday, Charlie Manuel told the members of the Philadelphia Phillies’ press corps that he wanted them to pray for the team.

“I don’t know if it’s you guys or the players or what, but somebody out there has got something against us. Or somebody’s not living right. If you guys are very religious, please go to church. Pray for us.”

Ok, so Manuel was probably joking. But I don’t think anybody is laughing.

Start the countdown clock. It’s not a question of if Manuel will get fired, but when. And it sounds like he knows it.