Last night, two Phillies players tried on new looks. Ryan Howard showed up for the game rocking the playoff beard, and Chase Utley brought back the slicked back hair.

Howard’s new look was somewhat unexpected, as he’s been hot lately and if there’s one thing Crash Davis taught us it’s that you never mess with a winning streak. Howard’s new scruff paid dividends in the first inning, when he stroked a double to right field. He added a single later on, and struck out twice.

Utley’s return to hair gel was a little less surprising, as he struggled in the NLCS, and a change was arguably in order.

I know Sarah cringes whenever Chase slicks back his locks, but I don’t mind. Granted, it’s not his best look. But when Utley globs on the gel, you know it’s business time. It’s what I like to call his Michael Corleone look. Remember how in the beginning of “The Godfather,” Pacino’s Michael is a newly discharged marine, still a little wet behind the ears and more than a little naive about the family business? That’s who this Utley, with the short hair, reminds me of. But by the end of the movie, Michael has been transformed into a cold, ruthless businessman/killer. That’s slicked-back-hair Utley. He’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse. The offer? You’re gonna throw the ball, and he’s gonna hit it out. Capiche?

Today, Rob Neyer says let’s not anoint Pujols just yet, and poses the following question:

Maybe Pujols really is the best player in the National League. He probably is. But there’s a .365-hitting shortstop with power, playing for a contending team. Shouldn’t we at least take a deep breath and think a few thoughts?

Don’t worry, Rob. I’m on it.

The MVP Award is always tricky, because nobody can agree on the best way to measure “value.” One very good way to measure value is to look at a player’s wins over replacement, and his contribution to overall team WAR.

Let’s do this thing.

We’ll start with Pujols, whose WAR is 6.4, which represents 22 percent of the Cardinals WAR.

Then there’s Chase Utley, whose WAR is 6.8, which represents 22 percent of the Phillies WAR.

Finally, there’s Hanley Ramirez. Behold, the Marlins WAR pie. As you can see, Ramirez’s WAR is 6.9, which represents 27 percent of team WAR.

That’s right, Ramirez has the highest WAR in the league among position players, and the highest percentage of team WAR. And that’s a pretty good indication that he’s been the most valuable.

But guess what? There’s another guy worth mentioning. Tim Lincecum and his 7.2 WAR should be in the discussion for NL MVP. He’s responsible for 25 percent of the Giants WAR. Without him, San Fran would be totally screwed.

Of course, Lincecum won’t be a serious candidate despite his league leading WAR, because he’s a pitcher. But he should be.

And Ramirez won’t win the award, because Pujols has more RBI and home runs, and those are stats that voters traditionally care a lot about.

But while Pujols is great and has had a great season, there are clearly more deserving candidates.

NOTE: All WAR values come from the always awesome Fangraphs.

With as good as Chase Utley has been these past five years, many people have been assuming that he can’t really get much better. After all, this is a player who did not break through to become a full-time starter until he was already 26 years old, and is currently playing in his age-30 season.

However, so far this season, Utley is proving everyone wrong with a breakout year, and is currently on pace to set new career highs in OBP, SLG, homers, walks, and RBI.

The primary reason has been Utley’s increased patience at the plate. Although Utley has always had high on-base percentages because of his high batting averages, this is a player who consistently walked only about 50-60 times a season.

This season however, is on pace to walk exactly 100 times, which at least in my book, is pretty much the magic number that can be most easily used to distinguish superstars from stars when it comes to hitting.

Indeed, looking at the numbers, Utley has become significantly more willing to work deeper into counts and wait for “his” pitch. His swings on balls outside the zone have dropped from a previously established career norm of about 22% down to 19%, and he is even swinging less at pitches inside the zone, waiting for one that he likes.  Meanwhile, his contact rates, which have always been astonishingly high, have remained right at career levels.

What makes this all even more notable is how consistent Utley’s numbers have been in the past. Utley’s swing and contact rates have been pretty much like clockwork until this season, so while it’s still within the realm of possibility that this is just some sort of fluke, it may also very well be a real change in approach. Moreover, increased patience at the plate is known as an “old player skill” and is therefore one of the few improvements that may be more likely to be made at age 30 than at age 25.

Assuming that Utley’s increased patience is a permanent improvement and that he remains in good health, there’s no reason why he can’t consistently put up totals of 100 walks, 40 homers, 12o+ RBI, and 1.000 OPS’s over the next few seasons. In other words, Albert Pujols/A-Rod in his prime type, annual MVP contender type numbers.

The other day I was walking around the house, reveling in the latest Phillies victory, and spouting off to my fiancee Suz about how great Chase Utley is when she asked me, “Is he going to the Hall of Fame?”

I told her that Utley got a bit of a late start, that he didn’t play his first full season in the bigs until he was 26, and that would make it hard.

But then I did a little more research, and now I think Utley’s got a better than average shot at Cooperstown.

I realize this discussion is ridiculously premature. Utley could break his leg tomorrow and never be the same again. But it’s a Monday morning and debating Utley’s HOF chances is better than the alternative — real work.

My argument boils down to this: over the last 4.5 seasons, Utley has played his position better than any second baseman in the modern era, save Joe Morgan. And Utley gives even “Little Joe” a run for his money.

Dave Cameron says, “Utley is so far and away the best offensive second baseman in the game, it’s ridiculous to even consider anyone else.” Cameron made that statement in the context of Utley’s ridiculously high WPA/LI, a stat developed by Tango Tiger that measures win probability added, giving extra credit to players who come through in “clutch” situations, when the game is late, or close, or when there are runners on base.

Moreover, Hall of Fame voters, unless they get sophisticated in a hurry, probably won’t consider Utley’s WPA/LI when they assess his career.

But they won’t need to.

Here’s what you’d need to know, if you were looking at Utley’s HOF case right now: Utley has a 162-game-average of 30 HR, 109 RBIs and 109 runs, to go with a .298/.380/.529 line. That’s better than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. It’s even better than Morgan, though we’ve got to give Joe credit for averaging 45 steals per season (and Biggio swiped a few bags himself, topping out at 50).

Now, it’s important to note that Sandberg, Alomar and Biggio stuck around way past their prime, while Morgan played 22 seasons without ever declining much. And Utley’s career numbers will probably dip as he gets older. However, neither Sandberg or Biggio put up Utley-esque numbers, even in their primes.

There’s no doubt that we’re watching a Hall-worthy hitter, at least when you compare him to second basemen past and present. Can he keep it up? I dunno. His age is working against him. But at 30, Utley is having perhaps his best season and is showing no signs of decline.

On defense, Utley is almost as good as he is with the bat. Over the last four seasons, the Phillies’ second baseman has put together the following Ultimate Zone Ratings: 17.8, 9.2, 15.7, and 20.2. Last season, his +/- score was so high that Cameron says “it almost certainly contains a good bit of noise that isn’t actually measuring Utley’s real defensive value.” In other words, it was too good to be true. Still, Cameron conservatively estimates that Utley was 20 runs better than an average second baseman in 2008, and John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, says Utley is reinventing how second base is played by positioning himself close to first base against left-handed pull hitters:

[I]n general, the key appears to be that he is moving closer to first base against lefties than virtually any other second baseman in baseball. BIS Video Scouts, who watch every game and chart nearly everything you can imagine, have said the same thing. Utley has a strong tendency to position himself towards hitters’ pull side.

Here on Umpbump, we tend to focus on stats (and unfortunate facial hair and hot baseball wives), but it’s a fact that Hall of Fame voters look at more than numbers, so I would be remiss if I didn’t point out a few of Utley’s intangibles:

• Every season, he’s hit by a pitch more than any other player. This may ultimately be Chase’s undoing, as his unwillingness to dodge the inside fastballs has already resulted in a broken hand and time on the DL. But you’ve got to admire his fearlessness.
• As his +/- numbers show, Utley is an intelligent player. The other night, I watched him position himself for a pick-off throw in such a way as to totally block the runner’s path back to the bag. Little things like that help make him a better defender than more athletic guys like Brandon Phillips.
• He plays his best in big situations. Who could forget the seventh inning of the championship clincher for the Phillies, when he made a brilliant pump-fake to first to bait the Rays’ Jason Bartlett to go home, then made a strong throw to get the go-ahead run at the plate? Clutch.
• World F******* Champs. Utley spends the better part of seven seasons spouting Crash Davis cliches, cementing a reputation as the worst interview in sports, then he busts out the soundbite of the century.

Look, I know I’m more than a little biased, as a life-long Phillies fan. I know Utley is probably gonna need another 3-5 productive seasons before he’s seriously discussed as a Hall of Famer.

But while I was once quick to dismiss Chase’s HOF chances, I’m now of the opinion that he’s got a decent shot. He’s a great second baseman. End of discussion.

Phillies second baseman Chase Utley may or may not get that MVP everyone is always predicting for him, but he is already the MVP of Jen Utley’s heart, so he’s not doing too badly.

Chase married the former Jennifer Cooper, a San Francisco native with family ties to the Philadelphia area, back in January of 2007, but the two actually met when they were both students at UCLA. In an ironic twist, given Utley’s later career in Philadelphia, they were actually introduced by former Eagles wide receiver and lightning rod Freddie Mitchell, who was friends with Chase and freshman-year dormmates with Jen.

A noted animal lover, Jennifer helps sponsor drives to adopt homeless Pets each year at Citizen’s Bank Park with the other Phillies wives, and indeed you can hardly find a picture on the internet of Chase and Jen where they aren’t holding dogs or puppies.

(More pictures after the jump)

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I was talking to my dad today and he brought up something that had crossed my mind once or twice. Chase Utley, who dropped an F-bomb at the Phillies’ championship celebration on Friday, has yet to apologize.

Unlike the first time Utley used the f-word on national TV this year, this time he meant to say it. So maybe it’s not surprising that he hasn’t said “I’m sorry.”

But it is surprising that the Phillies didn’t make him apologize. These days it’s not about right or wrong, it’s about minimizing public relations damage, and the Phillies didn’t do anything to appease people who were upset about Utley’s language.

Hey, I’m not saying he should apologize. What’s done is done. And, frankly, it was hilarious. I’m just surprised that polical correctness didn’t win out, for once.

Chase Utley is many things. He’s hardworking, talented, professional, philanthropic, and kinda handsome, if you’re into the Pat Riley hairdo.

But above all else, he’s boring. I have a friend who used to work for the World Wide Leader who told me once that Utley was the worst interview she’s ever done.

Here’s how Jimmy Rollins explains Utley’s conversational style:

“[H]e talks and says what he has to say. But it’s all done in Chase-way. And we all understand it.”

Utley just isn’t much of a talker. And that’s what’s made this afternoon’s World Series Championship parade so surprising.

For the second time this year, Utley dropped the F-bomb.

From Philly.com:

“World champions. World (f-bomb) champions.”

Chase Utley is the quiet man no more.

And the crowd is stunned for about a millisecond, and then gives him the biggest cheer of all.

F-ing awesome.

Hat tip to The 700 Level.

Baseball Prospectus has a formula called Secret Sauce that they use to predict who will play in the World Series. The formula focuses in on three criteria: 1. Pitchers that strike out batters. 2. A stud closer. 3. A good defense.

Here’s how SI’s John Donovan describes the formula:

The “Secret Sauce,” as BP call its concoction, has worked out pretty well over the years by bypassing some of the more common stats and digging deeper. The Sauce not only takes into account a pitching staff’s strikeout rates, for example, but it adjusts that number based on league differential and ballpark factors.

The Phillies and Red Sox, for what it’s worth, have the highest secret sauce rankings among National League and American League teams, respectively (though it’s worth noting that there were several American League teams with better Sauce scores than Philadelphia). Moreover, the Phils have two pitchers in the top 30 in the majors in K/9. Both Hamels and Myers average almost 8 strikeouts per nine innings. Jamie Moyer averages 5.64 K/9. Blanton averages a shade over 5.

If the Dodgers are going to beat the Phillies, they are going to have to overcome Philly’s pitching, which has miraculously morphed from a weakenss to a strength seemingly overnight. Specifically, they’ll have to:

1. Hit home runs off Brett Myers. During the first half of the season, Myers gave up 24 homers in 101 innings. After a brief minor league tour he returned and only gave up five home runs in 88 innings. Myers’ second half resurrection had everything to do with his ability to keep the ball in the park. The Dodgers need to swing for the fences.

2. Make the Phils’ starters throw pitches. That’s how the Brewers beat Jamie Moyer in Game 3. I’m not sure if playoff strike zones are smaller, but it sure seemed that way to Moyer on Saturday. If the Dodgers can get to the Philadelphia bullpen early, they’re golden. The Phils’ bullpen was solid all season, but showed signs of fatigue down the stretch. Chad Gaudin Durbin and Brad Lidge are running on fumes. Lidge, in particular, is building towards his own Mitch Williams moment.

3. Don’t pitch to Utley. He’s so due.

4. Start Clayton Kershaw. He’d be murder on the Phils’ lefty bats.

5. Don’t play Juan Pierre. Ever. Not even a little.