A while back, we questioned the notion that the Braves’ trade for Adam LaRoche was about 2010. Today we’ll take a look at who might play 1B for Atlanta next season.

The contenders:

1. Adam LaRoche, the team’s current 1B, will be a free agent at the end of the season and could be resigned.

2. Chipper Jones, who has had a horrid season at third base, leading the league in errors and posting a -10.1 UZR, might benefit from a move to first.

3. Freddie Freeman is a first baseman and one of the organization’s top prospects, but probably won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2011 or, at the earliest, late 2010.

4. Martin Prado has had a good year, playing mostly at second base but also spending time at 1B and 3B and hitting .291/.342/.429.

5. Nick Johnson and Carlos Delgado are two other free agent first basemen, and are both injury risks.

So what’s Atlanta to do? Let’s analyze the situation:

• Move Chipper to 1B. This seems obvious, right? The Braves need a first baseman and Chipper seemingly can no longer hack it at third. Moving him to first would keep his bat in the lineup and hopefully help him stay off the DL. But here’s the rub: if Chipper moves to 1B he’ll be blocking Freeman, who could be ready for the bigs as soon as June. And Chipper is signed through 2011, so Freeman would potentially be stuck at triple-A until 2012.
• Make Martin Prado the first baseman. Prado has had a pretty decent season serving as Atlanta’s super utility player, hitting .291/.342/.429. The Braves could move him to first, where he’s played decent defense in 2009, until Freeman is ready. Unfortunately, this move wouldn’t solve the problem of Jones’ deteriorating fielding ability, and Atlanta would be crossing their fingers that Jones’ bad year in the field was an anomaly. Jones had an almost equally bad season at third in 2006, but rebounded to play average defense in 2007 and was a stellar fielder last season. Maybe he’ll make a similar recovery in 2010? Maybe. But he’s at the age when a dramatic defensive improvement is unlikely.
• Bring back LaRoche. This would be the safe play, as you pretty much know what you’re getting with LaRoche. On the other hand, what you’re getting really isn’t that great, and there’s little reason to think that he’d be any better than Prado, who is already under contract.
• Sign another free agent. Other free agent first basemen include Carlos Delgado and Nick Johnson, but both come with injury concerns. On the plus side, signing a free agent first baseman would allow Atlanta to play Prado at second base in 2010, where he’d most likely represent an offensive upgrade over Kelly Johnson, who has never lived up to expectations.

My advice? Atlanta should sign a free agent 2B, shift Prado to 3B and move Chipper to first. Both Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson will be available this winter and both would represent a drastic improvement over Kelly Johnson, who started 2009 as Atlanta’s 2B before getting benched.

Sure, Chipper would be blocking Freeman, but only until Chipper strains an oblique or herniates a disk in his back, or comes down with some other inevitable injury. And when he does Atlanta can call up Freeman for a tryout with the big club. And if Freeman hits so well that Atlanta is forced to keep him in the lineup even after Chipper returns from the DL, well, that’ll be a good problem to have.

Today, Buster Olney writes about Chipper Jones’ defensive struggles and says:

Chipper Jones says he might retire if he has another season like this one, writes David O’Brien. Remember, he just signed a three-year, $42 million extension, which runs through 2012. Yes, he is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

That last line — Yes, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer — jumped out at me. Jones is the man. I’m a huge fan. But I’m curious if everybody else is convinced that Jones is Cooperstown-bound.

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From left to right, Chipper Jones, Matt Duff (former St. Louis Cardinal), Tom Martin (New York Mets), Adam LaRoche (Pittsburgh Pirates), Ryan Langerhans (Washington Nationals) and Willie Robertson (son of world famous duck hunter).

Nick and Coley have already given you their MVP picks. Here are mine:

First, the American League. The runners-up:

Grady Sizemore. Smart stats love this guy, despite his crappy average this year: he was second in the AL in VORP and first in Runs Created. He also tied for fifth in homers. But it was all wasted because the Indians were so bad. Oh well.

Carlos Quentin. Let this be a lesson to him next time he wants to break his wrist to spite his bat (or whatever).

Aubrey Huff. If David Ortiz can’t win it as a DH, then Huff won’t. But you know, he finished 4th in the league in VORP, 5th in OPS and RC, and 3rd in SLG. I just thought I’d mention it, because unless you live in the 21201area code, you might have missed it.

Kevin Youkilis. Tell me if I’m wrong, but I think he was the only guy to finish in the top ten in VORP, RC, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That’s pretty badass. Plus, he plays gold-glove worthy first base and can easily slide across the diamond to play third. Heck, you can even stick him in the outfield. Terrible facial hair, though.

But there can be only one winner, and that person is…..

Dustin Pedroia. No, he’s not the trendy pick–at least, not among the baseball eggheads who are sick of hearing about the Red Sox and their annoyingly good players and just plain annoying (but devoted!) fans. (Screw you too, jerkface!) But Pedroia had 73 extra-base hits this year (including 17 HR) this year to Joe Mauer’s* 44 (including 9 HR). Mauer, the catcher, has 1 stolen base and 1 caught-stealing. Pedroia, no real speedster, has 20 stolen bases and was also caught once. (How did he do that if he doesn’t have real wheels? The old-fashioned way: using his brain.) Pedroia led the league in runs, tied for first in hits (213), came in second by just .004 .002 [edit: after game 163] in batting average, finished third in runs created (while Mauer finished 18th there), and was fourth in total bases (with Mauer tied for 33rd). Pedroia also finished third in the AL in VORP (to Mauer’s 7th-place finish) behind Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore, whose teams failed to make the playoffs this year. He played in 157 games and quietly drove in 140** runs while playing an acrobatic second base and energizing a team that suffered demoralizing injuries to their ace pitcher, cleanup hitter, and 2007 World Series MVP—while also coping with the tantrum and subsequent ouster of their most productive hitter. Without Dustin Pedroia, does anyone seriously think the Red Sox would have even made the playoffs? He’s been just as important to their playoff drive as Mauer*** was to the Twins’–and what’s more, he had a better year than Mauer. Case closed.

* I feel obligated to bring up Mauer here because so many people seems to be picking him over Pedroia, not least my colleagues at UmpBump. And look, I’m not one to undervalue a catcher’s contribution to the team, ever. But I honestly don’t know why we’re seriously talking about Mauer for MVP this year at all. (Yes, nice OBP. Very pretty. Well done. Now run along, and try to reach double digits in homers next time.)

**Now, anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I tend to pooh-pooh RBI as a stat, but keep in mind the context here: Mauer ranked 21st in MLB in RBI opportunities. Pedroia ranked 40th. But Mauer somehow finished with just 85 RBI to Pedroia’s 140. And those who would tout Mauer’s admittedly admirable ability to take a walk, I’d like to point out that despite this ability, Mauer grounded into 21 double plays–four more than the contact-prone Pedroia. And it’s not like Pedroia just swings at anything; he’s even a bit tougher to strike out than Mauer.

***To me, it’s a wash whether it’s more “valuable” to keep your team from failing when everyone expects them to succeed or to help your team succeed when everyone expects them to fail.

On to the NL. First, the doomed-to-fail runners-up:

Ryan Howard. As Coley pointed out, he led the NL in both homers and RBI, and his team did make the playoffs. But I include him only out of a feeling of obligation.

Hanley Ramirez. As Nick pointed out, he’s the young player every GM and fantasy owner would love to have. He carried the Marlins through a surprisingly good year. His time will come.

Lance Berkman. He had a great year–114 runs scored, second in RC, third in OPS and OBP, fourth in VORP. He also had 29 homers and, somewhat surprisingly, 18 steals. But the funny thing is, there are so many guys ahead of him on the home run list–Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Delgado, etc and etc–that his great year just isn’t good enough.

Chipper Jones. Now here‘s an AVG and OBP worth writing home about: .364 and .470, respectively, plus he was one of only two players in the NL to OPS over 1.000.

And yet there is only one clear winner here. And that is the other guy to OPS over 1.000. Who is…

Albert Pujols, despite his crappy team (hey, they would’ve won the NL West!), he clearly deserves the NL MVP and it’s not even close. He’s first in VORP, first in RC, first in OPS, second in OBP, and [yawn] first in SLG. Really, the guy is sick. There’s just nothing more to say.

Every once in a while, a columnist writes something so silly and pointless that even newspaper website commenters recognize it as a waste of pixels.

Such was the case when AJC’s Terence Moore decided to delve into the issue of who should get credit for drafting Chipper Jones.

Moore, it seems, got a call from Hank Aaron, who wanted to bitch about Bobby Cox taking the credit for drafting Jones. Aaron recalls Cox wanted to draft Todd Van Poppel and Cox says…well, who freaking cares what Cox says? Why are we even talking about this? Does this matter at all?

Moore’s investigation into who wanted to draft Chipper was so random and unnecessary that even AJC.com’s readers recognized it as a giant waste of time. Here’s what some of the commenters had to say:

By Supes
September 23, 2008 5:04 PM
Ran out of ideas to write about there Terence? Time to give Romie a call, maybe he’ll get you back on the set!

By Kelly
September 23, 2008 5:08 PM
What does it matter!!!!!!!!!

By 1966 Braves fan
September 23, 2008 5:22 PM
terence,
Just not the kind of journalism I like to see.
Glad you got your story. Quite sure it made you feel better.

By jack
September 23, 2008 5:29 PM
You know Terrance, to pick at something like this is just baiting the public, which I have to say is THE ONE thing you are expecially good at. I know it`s been a tough year for the Braves but, you should be ashamed to toss this He said, They said, pile of krap fuel onto the fire.

By JBB
September 23, 2008 5:51 PM
Terrance — thanks for wasting space on the internet. You need to get a day job!!!

You see what you did Terence? You took a group of people who can never agree on anything and you brought them to common ground. These are people who spell crap with a ‘k’ — and yet even they could recognize that writing this piece was a bad idea.

What makes this column especially stupid is that Moore’s peg seems to be Jones’ pursuit of the batting title:

This is the same Jones who is closing in on a batting title to grace his resume, which already includes a National League MVP award, more home runs than any switch hitter not named Mickey Mantle or Eddie Murray, and a World Series ring.

Of course, when Moore says Jones is closing in, he means backing in. Jones has been relegated to pinch-hitting duty lately due to a sore shoulder. So it seems an odd time to celebrate Jones’ greatness. Moreover, this expose into the Aaron-Cox cat fight does nothing to laud Chipper and only serves to make Aaron look petty.

Even your commenters can see that, Terence.

The Braves are not good. Maybe you noticed. Atlanta pitchers gave up 26 hits in an 18-3 loss to the Cardinals last night. It was the Braves’ sixth consecutive loss and 11th in 12 games. They are now 16 games back in the NL East.

So, it’s safe to say Braves fans are looking ahead to next season. But what will next year’s team look like? AJC columnist Jeff Schultz seems to think it will be a team stocked with expensive free agents. He says the Braves may have $47 million to spend. $47 million!

The Braves might lose five of the top seven salaries from this year’s payroll: Mike Hampton, John Smoltz, Mark Teixeira (already traded), Tom Glavine and Mark Kotsay.

So who might the Braves sign?

Hello, C.C. Sabathia or Ben Sheets?

Hmmm…that sounds like a little bit of wishful thinking. But let’s say Schultz is right. Let’s say the Braves give Sabathia a six-year $120 million contract. They’ll have $27 million left to spend. And all they’ll need is two more starting pitchers to pitch alongside CC, Jair Jurrgens and Jorge Campillo. Free agent pitchers will include Jon Garland (29), Braden Looper (34) and Derek Lowe (36). Bringing back Glavine didn’t work, but Greg Maddux (43) will be a free agent this winter. How about it?

Oh, and they’ll need a centerfielder to replace Kotsay. Free agent centerfielders include Rocco Baldelli (27), Jim Edmonds (39), Mark Kotsay (33), Corey Patterson (29). Will $27 million accomplish all that? Will Liberty Media grow the team’s budget?

For what it’s worth, AJC blogger David O’Brien has a plan to put together a contender and keep Tom Glavine and John Smoltz in Atlanta (in the unlikely event that either returns to pitch in 2009). He says ownership should set a budget, but make it clear that they’ll exceed that budget only to sign Glavine or Smoltz, or both.

I really don’t get O’Brien’s plan. It seems to me that if you’ve got $100 million to spend on a team that does include Tom Glavine, then you should have $100 million to spend on a team that doesn’t include Glavine.

A much better plan for rebuilding the Braves is the plan floated by Sabernomics earlier in the week. Part of that strategy involved trading Chipper Jones:

I think Chipper would be willing to play for another team that has a chance to win (a source has told me that this is the case). And if the Braves are rebuilding, I don’t think he’ll miss being part of the process. Sure, some fans will miss him, but it’s not like the organization heavily promotes him now. Chipper will go into the Hall of Fame as a Brave, that is settled. And the fact that his bat can net prospects that can help the team rebuild is an asset that the Braves shouldn’t waste. for nostalgia.

Trading Chipper would be unpopular, to be sure. But there is simply no way Atlanta is going to compete in 2009, especially now that Tim Hudson is going to be out all year. So why not make 2010 the goal?

Hey, plenty of folks here at Umpbump picked the Braves to win the NL East this season. Well, ok, it was just me. But I’ll be the first one to admit that I was wrong. The Braves aren’t a championship team. Not even close. It’s time for Frank Wren to come to the same conclusion. $47 million worth of free agents won’t fix this team. Atlanta needs to get younger. And cheaper. And trading Chipper Jones is the quickest way to do that.

NOTE: For a complete list of 2009 free agents, check out MLB Trade Rumors.

It’s down to the wire in UmpBump’s fantasy league. Paul continues to run away with first place, but can Sarah and Alejandro hang on long enough to make the playoffs? And is there any hope for Coley’s team?

Sarah: This is one of those sad weeks where you’re happy just to escape with a 7-4 loss. My team had probably its worst week of the entire season. The really annoying thing is, I could have picked up at least one more category if I hadn’t spent most of yesterday in the car. Xavier Nady was on my bench, and ended up going 4 for 5 with 6 RBI, a homer, and 8 total bases. JD Drew was on my roster, but didn’t play. D’oh. On the bright side, I’m still hanging in there in the standings. Hot: Xavier Nady, JD Drew, Stephen Drew, David Murphy, Matt Kemp, Matt Cain, Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson. Not: Cody Ross (who I dropped to take Roy Oswalt off the DL), Jacoby Ellsbury, Ian Kinsler, Andy Pettitte, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya.

Paul: If you have an offensive explosion but your opponent hasn’t been paying any attention for weeks, did it actually happen? I’m not much for rhetorical questions but I did find myself wondering how humiliating it would be if I had lost my match-up this week against caitlin grace, who I’m convinced hasn’t changed her lineup or roster since the Taft administration. Her team currently consists of six players who are on the DL but remain active on her team. And that doesn’t even include Franklin Morales, who’s currently in AAA but is sitting on this team’s bench anyway. Yet, she had me worried. Thanks to sparkling outings from Chris Young and Matt Garza on Caitlin’s side, and the Singaporean caning that Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Hiroki Kuroda and Scott Baker received for me this week, I was not exactly sitting pretty. But a good offense always beats good pitching. Or was it the other way around? Either way, these old axioms are stupid. My team slugged out 17 HRs, knocked in 48 RBIs, scored 48 runs, and had 151 TBs to win the week 8-4. Hot: Kevin Youkilis, Matt Holliday, and pretty much every hitter not named David Wright or Marcus Thames. Not: David Wright, Marcus Thames, and pitchers weighing under 300lbs (you done good, C.C.).

Coley: I think it’s getting close to time to throw in the towel. I love my team, but even when the Crunkball All-Stars play well, they still find ways to lose (Josh Beckett, what happened to you, bro?). There’s only one thing left to do – a team name change. It’s a desperate move, sure, but this is a pretty desperate situation. So, without further ado, let me introduce my new fantasy team: St. Jude’s Club – Jude being the patron saint of lost causes who is often pictured holding a club. Hot: Alfonso Soriano, Chone Figgins, Rich Harden. Not: Josh Beckett, CJ Wilson.

Alejandro: It never fails. Every year I make a flurry of blockbuster moves to solidify my position and boost my performance down the stretch, and it never works. The difference this year is that the Center Field Stud was actually moving up the standings in relentless fashion – until, of course, all the trades. Because of that, croutchyoldman handed me a whipping, spanking the Stud 11-1. My lone victory came in the form of saves. And really, I wasn’t even close in the other categories, the offense slumped, Josh Hamilton (the big RBI guy) only had 3 (three!!), Chipper Jones went back on the DL, Aaron Rowand is in a funk, and the rest are just average. And don’t get me started on the pitching; 6 out of the 8 active pitchers posted ERAs over 3.50, which is dreadful in fantasy baseball. Ugh. Hot: Tim Lincecum, Gavin Floyd, Alexei Ramirez, Josh Hamilton (sure, no RBI, but homeruns, TBs, Runs), Dan Uggla (HIS NAME IS DAAN UGGLA!). Not: Magglio Ordoñez, Aaron Rowand, Josh Fields, Manny Parra, Mike Pelfrey.

Standings (games behind):

1. Paul – ElDuquesInjuryReport ( – )
2. Scott – Utley’s Firm Quads ( 10 )
3. Kirk – Montefusco’s Revenge ( 20.5 )
4. Doug – Swamp Dragons ( 22 )
5. Alejandro – Center Field Stud ( 24 )
6. Sarah – Somerville Green Sox ( 25 )
7. Ania – Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 28.5 )
8. Larry – croutchyoldman ( 34.5 )
9. Bryan – Pirates in ‘08! ( 45.5 )
10. Coley – St. Jude’s Club ( 49.5 )
11. Caitlin – caitlin grace ( 55 )
12. Sooze – freebase my balls ( 63.5 )

Up until recently, the consensus among higher baseball minds (read: Neyer and Stark ) was that the Braves were primed for a surge up the standings and that the team’s ho-hum record was mostly a product of bad luck. How else do you explain a 2-15 record in one-run games?

Here’s what Stark had to say about the Braves’ chances of making a run:

They have a better run differential (plus-48) than six of the eight teams that would make the playoffs if the postseason started today. They rank first or second in the league in batting average, ERA and rotation ERA. And the biggest reason for their .500-ish record (28-25) is their 2-14 record in one-run games. But that’s a record that figures to improve dramatically once they add John Smoltz , Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez to their bullpen.

Frankly, as a Phillies fan, I feared the Braves as well. If they were a good team despite injuries to Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton, Soriano and Gonzalez, there was no telling how good they’d be in July and August with a healthy pitching staff. Especially if Chipper keeps hitting .400. And especially if Mark Teixeira goes on his usual second-half tear.

But this week the tide is turning. No longer is there talk of a Braves resurgence. Now those same experts are singing a new refrain: the Braves are done.

Neyer has changed his tune:

The Braves are finished. Tim Hudson’s a good pitcher but he can’t pitch any better than he’s pitched. Chipper Jones is a great hitter, but can’t hit as well as he’s been hitting. Even as the Braves’ luck evens out, as it almost has to, it’s hard to see them doing any better than they’re already doing.

The fans, too, feel the Braves are lost. Just yesterday I got an email from infrequent Umpbump commenter Zvee, entitled "Holy Balls," that lamented the state of the Atlanta team. And Zvee isn’t the only Braves fan questioning the team these days. AJC blogger Chop Chick thinks the team has lost its chemistry:

Maybe I’m making too much out of it, but if they’ve lost the camaraderie and support that makes them a team, they’re in serious trouble. And while I can stomach losing if the guys hang together and keep laying it out on the field, it’s getting difficult to keep watching when it looks like they’re putting up minimal resistance. Those of us in Atlanta may soon envy those of you outside Peachtree TV range.

So what’s changed? How have the Braves gone from "poised for a breakout" to "poised for a bellyflop"?

Quite simply, it’s Smoltz. Or, rather, the loss of Smoltz. He was the glue. He was the guy who was going to make this team’s starting staff great. Then he was the guy who was going to make the bullpen a strength. Now he’s neither.

Here’s what Chipper Jones had to say about the loss of Smoltz:

"Coming into this season, I said we wouldn’t have a chance of competing in this division if he wasn’t starting for us every fifth day," Chipper Jones said. "We’ve managed to keep our heads above water without him. But now, to not have him at all this season is just devastating, flat-out devastating."

When you’ve lost six games in a row, 17 of 20 road games, have a 3-18 record in one-run games, when four of your top five starting pitchers are hurt, your bullpen is a patchwork and your best hitter is feeling "devestated" it’s hard not to think the season is slipping away.

Also, it’s not just that the Braves are losing. It’s how they’re losing. Kelly Johnson drops an infield pop-up with two outs in the ninth, allowing the Phillies to tie the game (and eventually win). Jeff Ridgeway hits a batter with the bases loaded in the 11th inning, giving the Cubs the win and the series sweep.

Things are bad in Atlanta.

And it’s getting harder to find people who think the situation will improve anytime soon.