I made an effort to watch all three White Sox - Cubs games this past weekend, thinking that we (ChiSox) would have a chance to keep those pesky Twins at bay – and of course, show our cross-town rivals a thing or two.

Like I said in the WTN for the Cubs, boy was I being prophetic. Nary a word of trash-talk comes out of my fingers and the Sox spiral into some kind of bizarre, home-run allowing, non-moving-RISP, dribbler-down-the-line-for-a-double-play-hitting team.

I hate to admit it, but series like these prove the White Sox are at the top because the other teams aren’t winning. Much like the Twins winning the division for a while early in the decade, Ozzie’s Sox have been good enough to stay on top, but that won’t be true for long, as those pesky Twins are inching ever-so closer. And don’t look now, but the Tigers might make a run for it in the AL Central.

During those annoying in-game interviews, Joe Morgan asked Ozzie for one wish; Ozzie’s response: My hitters to get hot.

The Sox offense sputtered all weekend, producing a couple of home runs and some run-scoring singles, but not enough to counter the slugfest that was the Cubs’ line up. Aramis Ramirez? Are you serious? In fact, the Sox had the lead in the first two games but the bullpen just couldn’t hold on. And last night, Ryan Dempster won his ninth home-game in a row.

I hated the Octavio Dotel signing before the season began, and I hate it even more now. He gave up two consecutive home runs on Friday that got the Cubs back in the game. With his two blown saves, 3.31 ERA (second-highest in the Sox pen), and three losses, it’s plenty to skew perception towards the negative.

It’s still early, and the Cubbies still have to play three more in the South Side next weekend, so we’ll just save the condolences for then.

Now for the linkage:

[Baseball Musings] The let-down in stats: The White Sox had allowed 54 home runs before the seires. They allowed nine during those three games.

[Baseball Think Factory] Asking your top RBI producer to bunt with two runners on and nobody out? Well that or hit into a double play.

[Newsday's Baseball Insider] Kevin Davidoff’s sticking to his preseason prediction and thinks the Mets are more likely than the Yankees to make the playoffs.

[The LoHud Yankees Blog] “Prepare yourself for the return of Sir Sidney Ponson.”

[Palm Beach Post] M.C. Hammer may have gotten Jack McKeon fired.

First thing’s first. I’m a White Sox fan, and I took on the assignment of prescribing what the Cubs need to keep winning as an exercise in objectivity (or to try and magnify each flaw – viciously). You decide. But the truth is, it’s a very intriguing season when both Chicago’s North Siders and South Siders are in first place of their respective divisions. Oh and they meet for the first time this season in about four hours.

But before I descend into a point-by-point comparison of the two teams, allow me to switch gears and focus on the Cubbies.

Consistency is the key word. Lou Piniella’s Cubs hadn’t been swept all season until that pesky team from Florida took them to task this week. They did lose two in a row in a few occasions, but they usually followed those mini-streaks with a healthy string of wins (usually more than three) that have facilitated for that first-place 45 and 28 record (as of Friday, June 20, 10 a.m.).

On a statistical level, the Cubs are also on top. First in the National League in runs scored, team average, team on-base percentage, and second in RBIs; and first in team ERA and batting average against. So in essence, all they have to do is keep the engine running and coast into the playoffs. If you do the math, they have to play slightly better than .500 ball for the rest of the season, and they’ll win around 90 games. In a division where they already lead third-place Pittsburgh by double digits, and where an injured Albert Pujols won’t be a threat, the Cubs are almost a shoo-in to win it (and don’t give me any crap for the Brewers, their pitching is shoddy).

If they want to keep their consistency, however, the Cubs are gonna have to do something about injuries. Carlos Zambrano visits the doctor today to find out if his shoulder can hold up for the rest of the season. He’ll miss one start, but the tension in Cub land is palpable, almost to a point where the season is dependent on Big Z’s ability to go the distance this year. And don’t forget that Alfonso Soriano is out with a broken hand (though he may start taking batting practice on Monday).

It’s no surprise, then, that the Cubs have sent scout to watch pitchers like A.J. Burnett, and are increasingly being mentioned in trade talks for pitching.

But with the season going as it is, the Cubs are on a roll. Their free agent signings are producing, their starter-turned-closer has finally bit the bullet and gotten the hang of it. The fans are wired with expectations. And yes, even cross-town rivals like myself like the possibility of the Cubs and White Sox meeting in the World Series. So what do the Cubs need? Maybe a little hocus pocus to keep it going. Or another arm, whichever comes first.

-What They Need Index-

Today’s lunchtime reading put me in an inquisitive mood. So let’s do it up as a questionnaire:

From 38Pitches, Curt Schilling would like to know: why wasn’t Kyle Farnsworth ejected for throwing at Manny Ramirez last night?

From Deuce of Davenport, why does Marty Brennaman hate Cubs fans so much?

From Slate, why are today’s ballplayers more likely to be born in August, and why are tomorrow’s stars more likely to be born in May?

From PhilSox Blog, why could that whole buried-Sox-jersey-in-the-Bronx thing have been an elaborate hoax?

From Fire Joe Morgan, why are “gamers” always white?

From Home Run Derby, why can Carlos Pena only hit home runs?

From Beantown West, why is Torii Hunter annoyed that white players wore #42?

From Cobra Brigade, why do the Cubs always get such freak injuries?

And speaking of freak injuries, Sports by Brooks would like to know: why the heck is Joel Zumaya doing keg stands?

Now for some questions of my own:

Why is Baseball-Bats calling first-pitch throwing Victoria Beckham a D-Lister? (Posh rocks! Posh is fierce! Posh is going to kill you!)

Why is Baseball Digest Daily arguing to get rid of batting average? (If you don’t like it, you don’t have to look at it!)

And why does Joel Sherman of the New York Post think that the Sox-Yanks rivalry ended in 2004? (Do you not remember Johnny Damon switching sides in ‘05? The five-game sweep in ‘06? The ‘07 pennant race?!)

And of course, UmpBumpers, we’re always looking for good reading here at UmpBump. Have you read something neat lately? Let me know!

This is one of a series of posts in which we eviscerate teams for their offseason blunders and grudgingly praise them for the occasional wily move. Guest author Melissa Rakestraw is a life-long Cubs fan and a first-time poster on UmpBump.com.

On October 14, 1908, the Chicago Cubs defeated the Detroit Tigers to become baseball’s world champions. It was their second consecutive title; they have failed to win a championship since that time. They haven’t even won their division two years in a row since then. But despite a century of futility, expectations around this team have been elevated after their come-from-behind NL Central title last year. And after watching previously futile franchises like the Red Sox and the cross-town White Sox take titles in ‘04 and ‘05 and then seeing their arch-rival Cardinals win it all in ‘06, Cubs fans (and Ryan Demptster) are tired of the lament, “wait ’til next year,” and in 2008 ask, “Why not us?” But that may be asking too much.

On the surface, it does appear that GM Jim Hendry has improved the team enough to repeat as division champs, but will these moves provide what’s necessary to win a World Series? For those looking for signs that the Curse of the Goat is still alive and well, the advent of spring training has already seen numerous oddities arise, which include the twisted testicles of Felix Pie, the fighting cocks of Aramis Ramirez, a fractured middle finger for Alfonso Soriano, the surgically repaired heart of Mark DeRosa and a convenience store smackdown suffered by Jose Ascanio. Let’s take a look at the offseason moves of a team whose season has already gotten off to a memorable start, regardless of the final outcome…

In ‘07 the Cubs had enough talent to overcome a slow start and make a second half push to win a weak division. But once they were swept by Arizona from the divisional round of the playoffs, it was clear that they were deficient in several areas. The most glaring weakness the Cubs suffered from was the lack of a #2 starter after Carlos Zambrano. Lefties Ted Lilly and Rich Hill certainly didn’t look the part and no one acquired in the offseason can be considered able to fill this role. The Cubs would have been well served to have made an effort to acquire Eric Bedard, Dan Haren, or Joe Blanton. The addition of any of these pitchers could have made them the clear favorite in the NL.

The Cubs have a fairly deep arsenal of young pitching prospects that surely would have made them competitive bidders. Although when asked why he never made an attempt to acquire Johan Santana, Hendry claimed that Santana refused to waive his no trade clause for a team that trained outside of Florida, I find it doubtful that the Cubs would have been willing to sacrifice the prospects necessary to complete the deal. In the past they have refused to deal top prospects only to have them fizzle out on the major league level (think Corey Patterson).

Hendry did make progress in upgrading his position players by somehow managing to unload the undisciplined and unfocused Jacque Jones on Detroit for utility man Omar Infante. This move set up Hendry’s acquisition of the crown jewel of the Cubs’ offseason - Kosuke Fukudome, the former Japanese-league MVP - who signed with Chicago for $48 million over 4 years. He was the primary free agent the Cubs targeted and his strengths should bolster areas that have been known weaknesses for the club. Defensively in right field, look for him to showcase impressive fielding skills and a rocket arm. Right field bleacher fans should not be surprised when they see him hitting the cut-off man or gunning down runners attempting to stretch singles into doubles. Moreover, the Cubs lineup is dominated by right handers, and his left-handed bat with some power and a high OBP was sorely needed. His combination of plate discipline, speed and power should make him an excellent fit in the 2nd or 5th slot of the batting order. PECOTA projects 550 plate appearances at .289/.401/.504, with 21 HR and 81 RBI.

Fukudome is a major upgrade for the Cubs in one position, but they also expect improvement at two other positions that they intend to fill from within. They allowed the defensive liability and offensively neutered Jason Kendall to walk in order to make room for top catching prospect Geovany Soto. Soto was impressive last season in his September call-up even though he had only 16 starts. Geovany had a stellar season in AAA and carried that success with him to the big league level where he showed plate discipline and the ability to drive in runs and hit for power. His defensive skills and his arm are well above average and offensively in 54 major league AB he had a line of .389/.433/.667. He looks poised to have a break-out season.

The other open position, still up for grabs, is center field. Felix Pie will be given the first opportunity to take over the reins at a position he could not hold last year. The 23-year-old product of the Cubs farm system has stellar defensive skills, and speed, but looked over-matched at the plate in ‘07, hitting only .215/.271/.333 in 177 AB. To succeed this season Pie must show a better command of the strike zone. He needs to cut down on a big looping lefty swing in favor of making contact, and must be more willing to sacrifice power in order to get on base. Unfortunately the Cubs brought him up through the minors as a #3 hitter when he is clearly not ever going to be a #3 in the Majors. They made the same mistake with Corey Patterson and he was either unwilling or unable to make the adjustment to being a table setter. Expect Pie to continue to languish at the plate if placed in the 8th slot which is where he likely will bat in the current projected lineup. It would serve Pie better to spend another year in AAA trying to adjust his approach at the plate.

The other top contender for the job in center is the Arizona Fall League MVP, Sam Fuld. Fuld is nearly as good a fielder as Pie and has shown that he is actually more advanced at the plate. Even if he doesn’t win the job in center, expect him to stick around as a 4th outfielder. Another avenue the Cubs are rumored to be pursuing is possibly dealing starting pitcher Jason Marquis to Boston for Coco Crisp. If the Cubs can pull it off, this would probably be the best option available, since Crisp is a proven major-league quality centerfielder, and the Cubs consider Marquis expendable due to the free agent signing of Jon Lieber and the moving of closer Ryan Dempster into the starting rotation.

The Cubs appear to have a solid pitching staff on the whole. They had the 2nd best ERA in the NL last season, led the league in strike outs, and were the most difficult NL team to manufacture runs against. Their top 3 starters, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill, are certainly capable of combining for at least 45 wins. It’s most likely that Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster will fill in the final two slots with youngsters Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart having outside chances. They don’t want to put Dempster back in the bullpen, even though in his career he is below .500 as a starter, and there was no point in acquiring Lieber if they did not intend to use him in the starting rotation. But placing much confidence in Lieber’s ability to stay healthy seems unwise due to his propensity for injury over the last 6 seasons. Since 2001, when he was the Cubs’ last 20-game winner, he has pitched over 200 innings only once and that was back in 2005. Still, at only one year and $3.5 million, the Lieber signing is not a huge gamble and, should he come up lame, they do have numerous young arms that could fill the slot.

What does make the Lieber signing rather curious, however, is that they refused to offer this same deal to Mark Prior, who has also been injury-plagued but is only 27 and has more upside than a 38-year-old Lieber. Prior has only made 57 starts in the last 4 seasons and hasn’t shown signs of the brilliance he possessed in 2003 when he won 18 games. But I would’ve rather seen them gamble on the younger player who has the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher when healthy. When Prior balked at agreeing to a club option for a second year on the one year offer, the Cubs finally threw in the towel on one of the most heralded draft picks in franchise history.

So Prior no longer figures into the Cubs future, but they did re-sign oft-injured former phenom Kerry Wood to a one-year deal. Moving Dempster out of the closer role creates an opportunity for Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol, or Wood to win the position in spring training. Woody seems the least likely to win the role in spite of being the hardest thrower. He has always had a propensity to walk batters and it’s uncertain if his arm can withstand working 2 or 3 consecutive days. Last season, Manager Lou Piniella tended to avoid using Wood in situations when the game was still in contention.

Carlos Marmol, possessor of the devastating slider and no doubt the closer of the future, may not yet be ready to move into the closer’s slot. While it is true that last season he had the 2nd lowest ERA (1.43) of all NL relief pitchers, and held batters to the 2nd lowest batting average (.169), the 25-year-old has not had the experience of facing the pressure of even a single major league save opportunity. Lou said last season that he liked having the flexibility of being able to bring Marmol into the game in the 6th, 7th or 8th when close games hung in the balance. He stranded inherited runners 87.8% of the time, which was better than all other NL relievers. Due to Marmol’s inexperience it is most likely they will start the season with veteran Bobby Howry in the closer role. Howry has done it before and it may benefit the club to ease the younger player into the role later on in the season if Howry falters.

In other bullpen moves the Cubs avoided salary arbitration with middle reliever Michael Wuertz by signing him to a one-year, $860,000 deal. The hard throwing right-hander was a solid contributor in ‘07 with a 3.48 ERA and stranded 86.8% of inherited runners, second in the NL to teammate Marmol. Neil Cotts was also resigned to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration. He has a live arm but may return to the minors if he can’t regain the control that gave him the success he had in ‘05 with the White Sox. In a move with a lot of upside, Hendry dealt left hander Wil Ohman and utility man Omar Infante to Atlanta for Jose Ascanio, who has a 95+ mph fast ball and will likely begin the year at AA. Rule 5 draft pick-up Tim Lahey could also bolster their bullpen depth. These moves could serve dividends down the road and the Cubs have added young depth. Overall, I would say the pitching staff is slightly upgraded from last season, but more should have been done.

This offseason, the Cubs have made several moves that have improved their ballclub. It is still possible that they will attempt to bring in lead-off man and second baseman Brian Roberts, which would improve their lineup even more. That move would allow them to move Soriano and his strike outs down in the order and free up Mark DeRosa to fill the utility role which best suits him. But even if they are able to pry Peter Angelos’ pet out of Baltimore it probably won’t be a move that helps them capture the NL pennant. Their best chance of ending the centennial suckfest would be to acquire another top of the rotation pitcher. My prediction is wait ’til next year.

Offseason Grade: B

Additions: RF Kosuke Fukudome, SP Jon Lieber, RP Jose Ascanio, RP Tim Lahey, SS Alex Cintron, RP Chad Fox, RP Shingo Takatsu

Losses: OF Jacque Jones, C Jason Kendall, SP Mark Prior, RP Wil Ohman, OF Angel Pagan, OF Omar Infante

Projected Lineup, Rotation and Closer:

LF Alfonso Soriano - .299/.337/.560, 33 HR
SS Ryan Theriot - .266/.326/.346, 3 HR
1B Derrek Lee - .317/.400/.513, 22 HR
3B Aramis Ramirez - .310/.366/.549, 26 HR
RF Kosuke Fukudome - .294/.443/.520, 13 HR (Japan in 81 games)
2B Mark DeRosa - .293/.371/.420, 10 HR
C Geovany Soto - .389/.433/.667, 3 HR, 54 AB
CF Felix Pie - .215/.271/.333, 9HR

RHP - Carlos Zambrano - 18-13, 3.95 ERA
LHP - Ted Lilly - 15-8, 3.83 ERA
LHP - Rich Hill - 11-8, 3.92 ERA
RHP - Jon Lieber - 3-6, 4.73 ERA
RHP - Ryan Dempster – 2-7, 4.73 ERA, 28 SV

CL - Bobby Howry 8 SV, 3.32 ERA

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

• The city of Goodyear, Ariz., has until Thursday to publicly identify where it’s gonna get the $32 million it will cost to bring the Reds to the Cactus League.
• If the Reds don’t go to Goodyear, they could replace the White Sox in Tucson (I’d like to link to this story, but the Arizona Daily star makes you pay for any story that’s more than a week old).
• One season soon, the Cubs could play some home games at U.S. Cellular Field while Wrigley gets a face lift.
• The former owner of the Philadelphia Eagles thinks the Marlins new stadium should be privately financed.

Because I’m guessing they are not racist, right-wing Japanese ultranationalists.

You’d have to be one or the other to build an entire ad campaign around a symbol that is deeply offensive to millions of people across Asia:

Sure, maybe a lot of those Asians don’t care about baseball, or the Cubs but isn’t this still kind of a bad idea? I mean, I don’t know if 85-year old Eastern European Jews care much about baseball either, but would you build a marketing campaign around the Nazi swastika flag?

What’s more amazing than the fact that this ad campaign even exists is the way the Cubs are so blithely hyping it on their official website. In an article on Cubs.com entitled “Cubs unleash bold, new ad campaign: Promotions international in scope with dash of local flavor,” there is clearly no understanding whatsoever that this image might at all be offensive:

CHICAGO–Kosuke Fukudome is among the players featured in a new ad campaign unveiled on Tuesday designed to showcase the international breadth and depth of the Cubs.

A graphic red, white and blue image of the Japanese outfielder that includes a rising sun includes the statement, “I don’t need an interpreter. My bat does the talking.”

The campaign focuses on individual players with a bold treatment using elements from each player’s unique background. Ads featuring Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano will use a portion of the Dominican Republic flag as a background…. There also is an ad with pitcher Kerry Wood that will feature the Texas flag.

….

“It’s a very international campaign. Yet the red, white and blue also makes it very Cub,” said Scott Maney, president and executive creative director of Jones, which is based in the River North section of Chicago and the company behind the creation of the ads.

….

“Most of the time, advertising has to work pretty hard to lift a brand up,” Maney said. “But with the Cubs, the opposite is true. The brand is already so sacred, the advertising has to work extremely hard just to keep up. It has to earn the right to represent the Cubs.”

This is the kind of ad that will “earn the right to represent the Cubs”? This cheery article gets posted on the Cubs’ official site, including a picture of the Fukudome ad? And the ad has already been printed in several Chicago area newspapers? It boggles the mind to think of the number of people in the Cubs’ front office who must have had to green light this ad for it to get so far.

Clearly the Cubs have no idea what kind of campaign they have “unleashed.”

But what surprises me most of all is the reaction so far to this ad campaign, which makes me wonder, if only for a moment, whether I am giving the Cubs too hard a time. While plenty of people were shocked by the ads, there also seems to be a large number of people who think that it is not a big deal. Witness a representative comment to the post that first broke this story on the blog “On 205th”:

“Much ado about basically nothing. I would be shocked if anyone besides bloggers are “offended” by this image. For a country that sure loves to parade the image of our flag around, it is ironic that some of its citizens would get their panties in a bunch over this.”

Or this one:

“Given the craptacular diplomatic performance of our current administration could the same not be said of the American Flag?

Hell, that thing is all over the place in MLB.”

There seems to be an erroneous assumption here that this image is simply the Japanese national flag, equivalent to our own American flag, so what’s the big deal? Which means it’s time for a little history lesson…

So there are two flags which were used by the Japanese at various times in the 20th century:

The flag on the top is the current national flag of Japan. The flag on the bottom, however, is not. Rather, it was the battle flag of the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy during World War II and earlier Japanese wars. This was the flag that was raised over Nanking, that flew over “comfort” stations, that was saluted by Unit 731. It was the flag of Japanese militarism.

Anyone who has been in Asia for any length of time will recognized why the second flag is so offensive. There is a reason why extreme right-wing ultranationalists in Japan make a point of marching around carrying this flag and not the regular Japanese flag when they protest in favor of restoring Japanese military might. There is a reason why many Chinese and Koreans fly into a rage at the mere sight of this flag. There is a reason why the Japanese government itself never used this flag at all for more than 50 years after World War II, until some right-wing politicians made a political statement by passing a law in 1999 “rehabilitating” the flag as a national symbol, although it is still almost never actually used.

And then there is our good friend Jay Mariotti of the Chicago-Sun times, who writes a piece today calling for people to have some “perspective,” and asking us to “remember that World War II ended in September of 1945. A month later, the Cubs played in their most recent World Series. We’re talking a long, long time ago, maybe too long to get worked up over what’s supposed to be a proud showcase of the new right fielder.”

Yeah, and the Holocaust was a long time ago too.

World War II in Europe killed 40 million people. The War in Asia killed 30 million people. The only difference between the armies that bore the swastika on their flags and the armies that bore the sunburst was that the armies with the swastikas killed some more people. But we are still talking tens of millions of people killed.

So either symbol would be an absolutely moronic image to use in your “proud showcase of your new rightfielder,” let alone tout on your official website or run in actual print newspapers, no matter how long ago those atrocities were.

ASTROS - pitching depth.
Besides Oswalt, Houston’s rotation currently features Woody Williams, Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodgriguez and Felipe Paulino. That’s a lot of finger crossing.

The ‘Stros have Jose Valverde closing games. And that’s awesome. But other than Valverde, the bullpen offers little beyond Doug Brocail. Geoff Geary and Oscar Villarreal do not inspire confidence.

It’s easy to point to the bevy of all-star names in Houston’s lineup and think that the team’s offense might make up for it’s crappy pitching, but players like Tejada and Berkman are past their primes, while Kaz Matsui is overrated.

Verdict: The Astros need one more top of the rotation starter and some middle relief help.

CARDINALS - starting pitcher.
Go to the ESPN.com stats page. Check out the NL batting stats. The top 75 players from 2007 include just one Cardinal — Albert Pujols. That’s gotta change in 2008. How is that going to change? Three things have to happen. 1. Troy Glaus has to stay healthy. 2. Rick Ankiel has to live up to the Babe Ruth comparisons and 3. Chris Duncan has step up his game. If all three of those guys hit, and Pujols continues to be Pujols, the Cardinals will be dangerous.

Of course, those are a lot of maybes. And even if all of those things happen, that still doesn’t change the fact that St. Louis’ starting staff includes Anthony Reyes and Braden Looper.

Verdict: The Cardinals need one more top of the line starting pitcher. And a lot of luck.

BREWERS - steroids
This offseason, Milwaukee acquired Guillermo Mota, Eric Gagne and Mike Cameron. They already had Derrick Turnbow. That’s three relievers who were mentioned in the Mitchell Report, plus one CF who will start the season suspended. How do they sleep at night?

Verdict: The Brewers need to stay one step ahead of the drug testers.

REDS - Jay Bruce
Rumors abound that the Reds are considering trading their entire farm system — including OF prospect Jay Bruce — for Baltimore ace Erik Bedard. This would give Cincinnati a scary rotation led by Bedard and Aaron Harang. But it wouldn’t solve all of the team’s problems.

Last season, David Ross cought 107 games for the Reds. His OBP was .271. So there’s that.

Also, Ryan Freel is penciled in as the team’s starting CF, now that Josh Hamilton has been dealt. But what happens when Ken Griffey Jr. gets hurt? The Reds need Bruce to get major league ready quick, allowing Freel to serve as a super-sub and giving the team a little more depth and power. If Bruce pulls a Ryan Braun and shows up swinging, the Reds could be contenders, even without Bedard. (Of course, nobody in history has ever pulled a Ryan Braun to the extent that Ryan Braun pulled a Ryan Braun in 2007. But I digress.)

Verdict: The Reds need to keep Jay Bruce.

CUBS - an ace.
Outside of the continuing development of CF Felix Pie, the Cubs’s question marks are all on the pitching side. A handful of relievers, including Kerry Wood, will battle it out to be this season’s closer. Meanwhile, Jason Marquis will attempt to return to form after 2007’s late season collapse.

Chicago has a few good starting pitchers, like Rich Hill, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. But the team really needs at least one of those guys to step up and pitch like an ace.

Verdict: What the Cubs really need is for Carlos Zambrano to cut down on his walks.

PIRATES - a miracle.

Strengths: ummmmm…
Weaknesses: oy!
Verdict: sigh.

Today, it was announced that the San Diego Padres and free agent pitcher Mark Prior agreed on a one-year contract with a base salary of $1 million (worth a max of over $3 million with incentives).

Any discussion with the 26-year old righty is going to begin with his history of injuries so let’s just get that out of the way. I tried my best to piece everything together in the chart below (if I missed any, let me know) so we can get a clearer picture of what we’re talking about here:

The reasons for concern are self-evident. Over the span of five years, Prior has been on the disabled list eight times, and only once during this time was he able to become active at the end of the 15 days.  What’s even more worrying is that seven out of the eight injuries were related to the his pitching elbow and pitching shoulder. Now I’m no sports physician (and I’ve never stayed at a Holiday Inn Express), but those sound like really important parts of any pitcher’s body. Even now, we’re not exactly sure if Prior’s going to be ready to step on the mound anytime soon.

So why am I actually jealous that the Padres signed Prior?

Because this winter’s proving to be difficult for anyone to improve. Unless you have top-level prospects that you’re willing to part with, bolstering your lineup or rotation considerably is looking next to impossible. But this deal has about as much upside as anything else I’ve seen so far this off season. Sure, one can’t neglect the past injuries, but you can’t ignore these points either:

• Even if Prior’s rehab goes terribly awry, the Padres lose only $1 million.
• He has been a flyball pitcher throughout his career, which means Petco Park will feel like heaven  compared to Wrigley.
• The surgery he underwent that killed his 2007 season was actually the first time (believe it or not) that Prior went under the knife. His previous injuries were”treated” in the “wait-and-see” school of medicine. According to James Andrews (are there other doctors out there aside from this guy?), Prior had a good amount of chips just floating around in his shoulder that were previously undiagnosed.
• He’s not pitching for Dusty Baker anymore and thus won’t be asked to throw 211 1/2 innings in 30 starts as a 22-year old who had never previously come even close to hitting that innings mark.
• He’s still Mark Prior and he’s only two years removed  from a pretty good season despite the elbow injuries. And maybe it’s because the guy’s only two weeks older than I am that I’m saying this, but at 27, he’s still young enough to rebound.

To me, it looks like even the worst case scenario can’t be all that bad. He’s either hurt and can’t pitch (with the Pads out a million bucks) or he’s healthy enough to take the ball every five days and pitch what I suspect will be roughly league average numbers with a good amount of upside.

I don’t think that any team aside from San Diego really had a shot to grab him. Not only was he born in San Diego, he stayed in Southern California for college, attending USC. After the media attention he received in Chicago, a year of reestablishing his market value pitching in the pitcher’s park of pitcher’s parks that just happens to be in your old neck of the woods sounds mighty appealing, doesn’t it?

So I think that the Padres quite possibly have upgraded their rotation by a couple notches, replacing David Wells with Prior. I don’t know about you guys, but I’ll be pulling for Mark to make good in 2008. I loved seeing him pitch a few years ago, and I hope to see it again. Well, maybe the Cubs fans will disagree…

No, it’s not pronounced Foo-koo-dohm. But everyone else seemed to be cashing in on the joke and I wanted a piece.

Speaking of cashing in (awkward segue of the day!), Kosuke Fukudome is officially a Chicago Cub. Last night, it was announced that he signed a 4-year $48 million deal to patrol the outfield grass of Wrigley Field. Umpbump has already done a small analysis of Fukudome’s numbers in Japan but here’s a quick recap:

• Best offensive skill is plate discipline.
• Will whiff on his share of third strikes, but makes very solid contact when he does connect.
• Currently has the range to play centerfield, but at 31-years old, his skills will inevitably diminish in that department. May as well put him in one of the corner spots.
• A fair expectation is an OPS around .830 (.370 OBP, .460 SLG). Not a star, but a very solid MLB outfielder.

Considering the money that both Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter received this offseason, we shouldn’t be too surprised to hear that Fukudome is getting $12 million per year for four. I anticipated at least a $40 million deal and that was before the outfield market was set by the Anaheim-Hunter contract. So I can’t really fault the Cubs for going so high.

The positive here is that Fukudome gives the Cubs something they sorely needed - a guy who could get on base. With Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano in the lineup, Chicago has some pop (they just couldn’t keep all 3 on the field in 2007). But they often came to bat with the bases clear. The four guys who most often occupied the top two spots in the batting order (Soriano, Ryan Theriot, Jacque Jones, and Mike Fontenot) simply couldn’t fill these roles. In fact, none of them had an OBP higher than .337, which helps account for why the Cubs ranked in the bottom half in MLB in that category. As a team, they walked only 500 times in 2007, which was 26th out of the 30 clubs. If Sweet Lou pencils in Fukudome’s name in the #2 slot, the big bats ought to see some more RBI opportunities.

But here’s the negative from my perspective, which is one that I imagine most Cubs fans will disagree with. I’ve expressed support for Matt “Big Red” Murton in the past, primarily because he would help Chicago in the OBP department. While I think that Fukudome is a superior player, to me, these two guys are rather similar. Neither should be expected to hit 30 homeruns because, simply, it’s not who they are. But utilized well, they’ll more than make up for their lack of power. So the question becomes, is Kosuke Fukudome worth $48 million more than Murton? I’m not so sure about that.

I should give the Cubs some credit here for improving during an offseason that’s looking difficult for anyone to do so. If they can keep Lee, Ramirez and Soriano on the field, they certainly have a chance to repeat as division champs, and Fukudome will help.

Today, the Chicago Cubs traded outfielder Jacque Jones to the Detroit Tigers for infielder Omar Infante. It’s not a bad deal for either team, I think.

For one, Detroit can now platoon the lefty Jones with righty Marcus Thames in left field. If you take the three-year splits for both players (Thames vs. lefties and Jones vs. righties), you end up with a player who hits .281 with a .344 OBP and .476 SLG. Of course, this does not calculate things such as park factor, switching leagues, and age projections for Jones, but you get the idea.

The Cubs end up with Omar Infante, who will no doubt end up filling the Neifi Perez Memorial Utility Role within Lou Pinella’s squad as the player who will end up getting far more ABs than he deserves.  The spot has been sadly vacant since Cesar Izturis was traded for 25 cents and a pop tart in July.

But there is a silver lining for the Cubbies here - this all but assures that Matt Murton will get more ABs. I don’t believe that “Big Red” will end up being a star, but he still has a good chance to be an above-average corner outfielder given the chance. He has been criminally underused in Sweet Lou’s regime but now should have the chance to prove himself as a more than viable candidate.