In tonight’s game between the Reds and the Cubs, Cubs starter Rich Harden had already run up a pitch count of 103 through 4 innings of work, despite only allowing 1 run, so Cubs manager Lou Pinella opted to remove him from the game (wisely, I would say, given Harden’s legendary fragility). Harden left with a 4-1 lead, but obviously could not get the win, since he had not pitched the requisite 5 innings.

Rookie reliever Jeff Stevens thereupon entered the game to start the 5th frame, pitching one inning and earning his first ever career win.

The only problem was, in his one inning of work Stevens gave up two singles and a three run bomb to Johnny Gomes, erasing the Cubs’ lead and leaving the game as a 4-4 tie.

The Cubs promptly came back and scored a run in the bottom half of the fifth, and scoreless relief by three other Cubs relievers, including 2 innings of hitless, 3-strikeout work by Aaron Heilman, preserved a 6-4 victory for Chicago, and saved the “win” for Stevens.

This is one of the worst cases of “vulturing a win” that I’ve seen in a long, long time. Stevens was far and away the worst Cubs pitcher in this game, posting a -.265 WPA whereas all the other four pitchers were positive, and yet he was awarded the win.

I know I’m just beating a long dead horse here, but why again do so many people hang so much of their evaluation of a player (not to mention Cy Young Awards), on this incredibly flawed stat?

This is turning out to be WAR-pie weekend. I got a request from a commenter for a Cubs WAR pie, so here it is. Sure enough, Kevin Gregg, with his -0.4 WAR, does not make the pie…

What immediately jumps out at you about this pie is how small it is. The Cubs total team WAR, including negative values, is only 21.6.  Compare that to 33.7 for a good team like the Dodgers, or 41.3 for a great team like the Yankees, and you can see why the Cubs are scuffling this season. They are simply not getting much value out of their roster this year, whether due to injuries to a guy like Aramis Ramirez, or generalized suckage for guys like Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano (whose -0.7 WAR means he doesn’t even make the pie!).

Suprisingly, the Cubs best player so far this season has been Kosuke Fukudome, due to his breakout year at the plate in combination with the fine defense he has played in center field, and shockingly, the team’s third best player has been largely unheralded shortstop Ryan Theriot. The staff ace has been rookie Randy Wells, and the much-maligned Carlos Zambrano, who some people have even called for the Cubs to release, has actually been the team’s sixth most valuable player.

It’s nice to see WAR giving credit to minor-league call-ups like Jake Fox and Sam Fuld, who have been almost as valuable to the team as guys like Bradly and Giovanni Soto, despite vastly more restricted playing time.  Based on the way they’ve played so far, Fox and Fuld should both be playing more.

And now, for comparison with the Phillies post I did yesterday, here is a pie of the relative contributions of Cubs pitchers vs. position players, which as you can see is much more balanced:

Did you see Alfonso Soriano’s walk-off grand slam last night? He needed a deep fly ball to win the game, and man did he hit it deep. Over the center field wall, in fact.

The home run was great. But Soriano’s celebration after the shot? That was a little much.

First, Soriano stands and watches his blast for about 7 seconds, until after it clears the wall in center. You can find some decent video of Soriano admiring his work here.

Then, when the Cubs’ left fielder is slowly rounding third, he flashes his hand in front of his face, which our more NBA-savvy contributor Zvee tells us is the “Michael-Pietrus-hand-in-my-face-isn’t-a-distraction-because-I’m-a-bad-ass” reference. You can find video of that move here.

Now, I know we’ve come a long way from the days when you needed to start running the bases immediately or else. But Soriano’s celebration was over the top, even by today’s more lenient standards. And it’ll be a shock if Roy Oswalt doesn’t put Soriano on his ass tonight.

My brother, a hard-nosed Cardinals fan, wanted to check his bank account, so he tried BOA.com thinking it would take him to Bank of America. He was wrong…

Update: Arg, whoever runs boa.com changed the picture, now a pair of creepy green eyes stare you down. Before the change, the site featured a large aereal view of old Busch Stadium in St. Louis adjacent to a snow-covered lot, and nothing more. Written in the snow in giant letters was the phrase: “CUBS SUCK.”

I was able to salvage this thumbnail:

With the season one-third gone now, it’s become pretty clear which players were only slumping and which players actually just suck at baseball. And yet on every team there is at least one player which for foolish reasons, whether it be an over-developed sense of loyalty, a case of GM-player man-love, a reputation for grit and hustle, or a bloated contract, the team just hasn’t been able to pull the plug on yet. In this post, we have a look at each team in the National League with an eye for the one player who really needs to be cut as soon as possible.

Dodgers – RP Guillermo Mota: This guy looks permanently broken: he gives up too many hits, he doesn’t strike enough guys out, and he walks too many batters. His WHIP is an appalling 1.79 and he needs to be shelved somewhere.

Giants – 1B Travis Ishikawa: The main job of a first baseman is to hit, so when your first baseman is the worst hitter on your team, you are doing something wrong.

Diamondbacks – CF Chris Young: Chris Young was supposed to be one of those guys whose power and speed would somehow make of for his complete lack of any ability to get on base.  Well, now you have a guy whose power and speed have fallen off, but who is even less able to get on base.  It is unbelievable that Young is still on pace for well over 500 at bats this season despite his .220 OBP. He needs to be working out his suckiness in the minor leagues.

Rockies – 3B Garret Atkins: I’ve been advocating that the Rockies trade Atkins for two years now, while there was still some perception that he was a good player, but they waited too long, and now he’s basically untradeable. Few players have benefited more from Coors Field than Atkins, and Atkins also had the benefit of his personal peak coinciding with the Rockies high profile Series run in 2007. But he was always an extremely inadequate defender at third, and now his bat has disappeared as well, even at home.

Padres – 2B David Eckstein: GM Kevin Towers calls David Eckstein the MVP of the team so far this year. He couldn’t be more wrong. Eckstein was only barely adequate defensively and offensively when he was at his peak about 5 or 6 years ago, and now at age 34, he’s pretty much got nothing left.

Cardinals – SP Todd Wellemeyer: Todd Wellemeyer shows that maybe there are limits to what pitching coach Dave Duncan can do. Kind of. Actually, it’s pretty amazing that the Cardinals have gotten as much out of Wellemeyer as they have, considering he was nobody’s idea of good starting pitcher material. But with Mitchell Boggs waiting in the wings, there’s really no reason to keep Wellemeyer around.

Brewers – 3B Bill Hall: Bill Hall couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now. Sure, he hit 35 homers back in 2006, but he’s done nothing at all since then, and he still has no real position defensively. For some reason, Hall still has the image of a youngster who is still developing, but when you actually go look at his age you find out he is already 29 years old, and what you see, which right now is total suckage, is probably what he really is.

Cubs – RP Aaron Heilman: Heilman was once a highly touted prospect, and did manage to throw up a few good seasons, but it’s becoming more and more clear that he’s just not all that good. Nothing about his peripherals suggests that anything is particularly wrong. His velocity is the same as ever, as are his FB/GB rates, his home run rate, his K/9 rate etc., and his BABIP is a very modest .299. Heilman simply walks too many batters, posting an unsightly 6.26 BB/9, and until that changes (if ever), he needs to be in AAA somewhere until he can learn better control.

Reds – SS Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez was once an elite defender at shortstop, which meant that his extremely weak bat could be somewhat justified, but now he is no longer anywhere near that class, and his bat seems weaker than ever at .209/.250/.302. He needs to be cut.

Erstad is still playing?

Astros – OF Darin Erstad: Yeah, I know, Erstad is supposed to be this super-gritty former football player (except he was only a kicker), but we are a decade removed now from his last actually good season in 2000, and I’m almost surprised to see that he is actually still on a major league roster. He’s hitting .137/.211/.196.  Why is this man still anywhere near a baseball diamond?

Pirates – OF Brandon Moss: Lots of people have mentioned how one good side of trading away Nate McLouth was that it has “cleared playing time for blocked prospect Andrew McCutchen.”  But hardly anyone mentions that one of the players who was allegedly “blocking” McCutchen is Brandon Moss, a corner outfielder who has been playing every day this season despite posting a .310 OBP and only a single home run.

Marlins – 3B Emilio Bonifacio: The fact that Emilio Bonifacio, who has no business being in a major league lineup at all, is actually batting leadoff for the Marlins, despite his .294 OBP, is an indictment of the entire Marlins coaching staff and front office.

Bonifacio whiffs again

Mets – C Omir Santos: It’s a joke that the Mets actually traded away Ramon Castro to clear a spot on the roster for this guy. It’s going to be fun watching as the numbers left over from his fluky hot start rapidly sink toward the Mendoza line.

Braves – OF Garrett Anderson: I laughed out loud when I heard that the Braves signed Anderson in the offseason, and I pretty much haven’t stopped laughing since.  The poor old guy has a .289 OBP to go along with a -15 UZR/150 in left field. At this point you could probably drag Bernie Williams out of the recording studio and run him out there for better production.

Nationals – CL Joel Hanrahan: You can anoint a guy your closer, sing the praises of his “live arm,” and run him out there in save situations as much as you want, but that doesn’t mean he is going to pitch like a closer, just because you really really want him to. In what may be the worst bullpen of all time, no reliever has done more damage in more high leverage situations than Hanrahan. His 1.90 WHIP (for an alleged closer!) pretty much says it all.

Phillies – P Chan Ho Park: Park has looked finished for years now, at least when you look at his peripherals. He managed to reinvent himself as a serviceable reliever in the pitcher-friendly NL West last season, fooling the Phillies into taking him on, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his game does not play well in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. The Park-as-starter experiment was basically doomed from the get-go, but ironically, Park has pitched even more poorly this year as a reliever than he did as a starter. This man should be enjoying his retirement somewhere, not getting thrown to the wolves every other night.

This is one of a series of posts in which we call out all 30 teams for their offseason blunders and begrudgingly praise them for the occasional savvy move.

Did any team in baseball make more moves and near-moves this offseason than the Chicago Cubs? In a flurry of activity, the Northsiders nearly traded for Jake Peavy after long negotiations before backing out due to unreasonable demands, resigned last year’s ace Ryan Dempster to a 4-year, $52 million dollar deal, inked outfielder Milton Bradley to a 3-year, $30 million pact, shipped 5th starter Jason Marquis to the Rockies for reliever Luis Vizcaino, dispatched SS Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Garrett Olson to the Mariners for swingman Aaron Heilman, sent utility infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three prospects, traded centerfielder Felix Pie to the Orioles for two pitching prospects, acquired closer Kevin Gregg from the Marlins for flamethrowing reliever Jose Ceda, signed speedy outfielder Joey Gathright and switch-hitting infielder Aaron Miles, and dealt away starting pitcher Rich Hill to the Orioles and reliever Michael Wuertz to the A’s for prospects.

Whew. Did you follow all of that?

Then again, it’s not surprising that Cubs GM Hendry would make so many moves. After all, this is a man who was still swinging deals from his hospital bed following a heart attack.

But are the Cubs better off than they were when the offseason started? That is a hard question to answer, because pretty much every move the Cubs made this offseason was some kind of gamble, and a lot depends on how the players they acquired play versus how well the players they lost play.

The Cubs were in a pretty tight situation heading into 2009, because with a lot of backloaded contracts coming into effect, their payroll was set to soar to around $130 million even if they did nothing at all, but at the same time they had some areas of clear need.

This meant that the Cubs had to pick their battles. They did spend some money to fill holes in the outfield and rotation by signing Bradley and re-upping Dempster, but this necessitated some cost-cutting moves such as sending Marquis to Colorado, letting closer Kerry Wood walk as a free agent, and dealing away the hugely popular “team MVP” Mark DeRosa and his 114 OPS+ at four different positions.

Stepping in for DeRosa at second base is the pint-sized Mike Fontenot, who put up monster numbers last year in a backup role. Last year’s setup man Carlos Marmol is slated to take over the bulk of Wood’s closing duties, while Gregg moves into the setup role, which may be wise since Gregg is highly overrated despite the closer tag (tied for worst in the NL last season with 9 blown saves), but on the other hand it may be better to let him close since when Marmol was the setup man he actually pitched in higher leverage situations, which now fall to Gregg.

Milton Bradley, meanwhile, will be the starter in right, assuming he can keep himself on the field. Although famed for his wild rages, Bradley’s more serious problem is his balky knees and hamstrings, and he has averaged less than 100 games played over the past 5 seasons. But assuming Bradley can play, his signing pushes Japanese import and 2008 second half bust Kosuke Fukudome to the bench, or possibly a platoon in center with Reed Johnson.

The Cubs won more games under Lou Pinella in his first two years as their manager than they had in back-to-back seasons since 1935-36, and after back-to-back NL Central crowns followed by back-to-back 0-3 playoff flameouts, both expectations and frustrations are high heading into 2009.

Most prognosticators are assuming that the Cubs are a lock to win the central and that their main problem is just figuring out how to win in the postseason, but the Cubs may have more trouble making it to the dance this season than many people expect.

The big worry for Chicago should be that while they won an NL-best 97 games last season, an awful lot went right for them to do so (as is almost always the case when a team wins 97 games), and questions abound for this season. For example, can Ryan Dempster come anywhere near repeating his 2008 career-year again? Can Bradley really play the field after being protected all last season as a DH? Is Mike Fontenot for real?

Another worry is that the Cubs’ aging, expensive core, which returns intact and is signed to big bucks long-term, but showed signs of real decline last season. Derrek Lee posted his lowest OPS+ in 11 seasons, Aramis Ramirez’s power is eroding as he enters his 30s, putative ace Carlos Zambrano saw his K/9 fall from 8.8 to 7.3 to 6.2 over the past three years, and Alfonso Soriano started having to battle through a variety of leg ailments, curtailing the speed which is normally one of his main weapons.

The offense led the NL in runs scored last year, and was second in the whole MLB only to the Texas Rangers, so there is room to give a little at the plate, but the big concern has to be the pitching staff. Zambrano is battling a sore shoulder, starter Rich Harden is as good as any pitcher who ever played when healthy but is never healthy, and Dempster just had a season for the ages after a decade of mediocrity. Throw in the maddeningly inconsistent Ted Lilly and you have a rotation that is almost as liable to collapse under injury and suckage as it is to impress.

Meanwhile, the late-inning bullpen combo of Gregg/Marmol is clearly inferior to Marmol/Wood, and losing Ceda to get Gregg seems to be a questionable move at best, although the rest of the pen, led by hot prospect Jeff Samardzija, looks solid.

The Cubs made a ton of moves this offseason, but are returning a team that is roughly equivalent to the team they fielded last year. That is not a bad thing, as last year’s squad was the best in the league, and the Cubs are definitely favorites again this year, but it is unlikely that they will win 97 games again, and they may have to squeeze by on a thinner margin for error. They did manage to hold the line on payroll, and picked up a number of fringy prospects, which is nice, but they may also miss Wuertz, Cedeno, Pie, and Ceda, and they will definitely miss DeRosa and Wood.

Overall Jim Hendry did a decent job of shuffling the deck chairs, but it remains to be seen if the ship he was on was the Titanic or a more fortunate vessel. Some of the icebergs which may have been created by this years’ dealings might not become apparent for several months or even years.

Offseason grade: B

Added: Milton Bradley, Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman, Aaron Miles, Luis Vizcaino, Joey Gathright, Corey Koskie, Paul Bako, So Taguchi, Mike Stanton, Luis Rivas

Lost: Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood, Bob Howry, Jim Edmonds, Felix Pie, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill, Henry Blanco, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward, Jose Ceda

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C Giovanny Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mike Fontenot
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Ryan Theriot
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley/ball of pure rage

SP1 Carlos Zambrano
SP2 Ryan Dempster
SP3 Rich Harden
SP4 Ted Lilly
SP5 Sean Marshall

CL Carlos Marmol

- Hot Offseason Index -

Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich has been arrested as a result of an ongoing federal investigation over corruption charges of the spectacularly audacious and/or idiotic kind.

Im the guv... no gimme my motha&%^ money... you got that?

The main charge against Blagojevich is that he tried to sell (!) President-elect Barack Obama’s Senate seat. But the investigation has dug up some sleazy deals behind the scenes that involve the Tribune Company, which owns the Cubbies. Keep this photo in mind as you read on.

From CNN:

Blagojevich and Harris threatened to withhold financial assistance from the Tribune Co. unless the company fired certain editorial board members who had been critical of Blagojevich and had called for the governor’s impeachment.

The money was related to the sale or financing of Wrigley Field, home stadium of the Chicago Cubs, a team owned by the Tribune Co.

(snip)

In a November 4 phone call, Blagojevich told Harris to tell the Tribune adviser, “Our recommendation is fire all those f—ing people, get ‘em the f— out of there and get us some editorial support.” The affidavit gives only one name, Deputy Editorial Page Editor John McCormick.

(snip)

Beginning November 30, Blagojevich began talking to a sports consultant and a Cubs officials about making state money available for Wrigley Field.

Holy Zell! The Gov. was running thangs like he was the, uhm, Guv…

I don’t think we’ve seen corruption of this magnitude in decades (I’m too young to have any objective recollective memory anyway), but it smacks of a dense movie plot.  Dude had a brassy pair, though, I mean, he was wearing a Cubs hat as a photo-op to strong-arm the Tribune people. Classy…

Prior to this season, the knock on Ryan Dempster has been his control. For his career, he’s handed out 707 free passes in 1425 innings. That’s 4.47 walks per nine innings, which is pretty much unacceptable.

But his 2008 performance has shown exactly why walk totals are extremely important. By cutting down to 3.4 walks per nine, Dempster produced a 2.96 ERA in 206 2/3 innings. And now, he’s reportedly cashing in with a deal totaling $52MM over four years.

Although he’s on the wrong side of 30, I think that this will be one of the saner deals this off season. Unless he forgets how to throw a strike, Dempster will be a pretty good bet of keeping his ERA below 4 for close to 200 innings in 2009, which is incredibly valuable and well worth $13MM a season and then some. And based on his strikeout rate last year, he’s capable of being a quality pitcher for most, if not all, of the four year deal.

So if these numbers are accurate, it looks like the Cubs got themselves a steal.

And no, I did not mean to rhyme.