Yesterday, Umpbump posted our predictions for the 2009 season. Some of these picks were easier than others – for instance, all five of us chose the Cubs as NL Central champs, and four of us picked the A’s and Dodgers to win their respective divisions. A slim three-person majority also favored the Mets to win the NL East and the Indians to take the AL Central.

But some of these picks were downright tricky. The AL East appears to be a total toss-up between the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, and our picks reflect that (2 chose Boston, 2 Tampa Bay, and 1 New York).

Similarly, it was hard to choose an AL Rookie of the Year because at least three candidates – David Price, Matt Wieters, and Travis Snider – all have a legitimate shot at vying for it. Should these three fail to live up to expectations, Elvis Andrus and Austin Jackson are waiting in the wings to claim their hardware. Then there’s always the chance that one of the AL’s younger, high-ceiling prospects – Neftali Feliz? – could force himself onto the big-league club sooner than expected and surprise us all.

But it was hard to pick the NL Rookie for the opposite reason: none of the NL’s most exciting talents are big-league ready. Atlanta’s Jayson Heyward is only 19, and topped out at high-A last year. The Giants’ Madison Bumgardner isn’t slated to make it to the bigs until 2010 at the soonest. And the Mets’ Fernando Martinez has already been rushed, and New York won’t want to hurry him further. So who will it be? In the end, four of us settled for Cameron Maybin, who seemed to figure things out a bit last September, while the fifth chose Colby Rasmus, another valid choice. Beyond that, Jordan Schafer’s torrid spring won him Atlanta’s starting CF gig, while Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen has been returned to Triple A – but probably not for long. But by far the most fun rumor is that the Nats would draft Stephen Strasburg and immediately bring the college pitcher to the majors. According to BP’s Kevin Goldstein, “every scout thinks he’d be fine.”

So, while our AL ROY picks came down to politicking – who’ll get more votes for being on a contender, who’ll get penalized for being a pitcher, who’ll get more support for starting the season with the big-league club – the NL picks all come down to who steps up and does the best job. And when it comes to preseason predictions, there’s nothing more boring than “well, it depends…”

Who did we miss, Umpbumpers? What rookies and prospects are you most excited about? What are your picks? Let us know in the comments!

If you’re a loyal UmpBump reader (thanks!) then you would know that the staff likes sabermetrics. Well I would include myself in that bunch, except I’ve been slacking on the mathematics of it all, and don’t really know much about PECOTA, Runs Created, etc, except to say that it’s dense stuff.

Well, since I’m scheduled to pick my Cy Young candidates, I figured I might as well take a crack at this saber stuff and do some calculatin’ to backup my claims. So as to not diminish the value of my own criteria, I’ll take stats into consideration, but I deem it important to consider the overall success of the team. How will I determine this? Well, simple really, did the team make the playoffs, and/or what percentage did the pitcher’s wins constitute of the overall team victories.

National League

I decided to take a look at the senior circuit first, and from the start, there’s a handful of names constantly atop the stat categories: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Webb, and near the periphery, Dan Haren and Cole Hamels.

In my (humble) opinion, ERA and Wins (with a 200 IP minimum) are obligatory stat criteria to make a preliminary evaluation of pitchers. So looking at the top three in each, we narrow the list to: Santana (2.53, 16), Lincecum (2.62, 17), Dempster (2.96, 17), and Webb (3.30, 22). To further thin the list, lets take a look at some sabermetrics: Only Webb and Santana are in the top three in positive WPA (with Lincecum at a very close fourth), and in overall Win Probability Added, Lincecum lead the NL with a 4.59 index, followed by Santana, Dempster, and Webb.

With those two breakdowns in mind, we can take Dempster out of the list, and by looking at one more sabermetric, the player leverage index, we can eliminate Santana since his pLI is below 1. And lastly, lets look at each players win total and what percentage of his team’s wins it represents: The Giants won 72 games, meaning Lincecum’s 17 are equivalent to 23% of the wins. The Diamondbacks won 80 games, and Webb’s 22 have a 27.5% share of their wins.

Brad Lidge is my stud pick for NL Cy Young

Now, taking relievers into account, and paying close attention to the closers, out of those with more than 30 saves, only the Phillies’ Brad Lidge cracks the top 3 in WPA (5.37); meaning he’s the only one worthy of Cy Young consideration (again, IMHO).

It’s a close call. For one, neither the Diamondbacks or Giants made the playoffs, and the Phillies did advance to the NLCS, thanks in part to Lidge closing out the Brewers. Lidge did have a 1.95 ERA and pitched 69.3 innings, and even though his 41 saves didn’t lead the league (Jose Valverde had 44), they’re good for a second-place tie with the Giants’ Brian Wilson (oh, and by the way, he blew zero save opportunities).

If we follow our sabermetric gut instinct, he beat out Lincecum in overall WPA, so I think we’ve reached the conclusion that makes the most sabermetric sense: Brad Lidge gets my vote for NL Cy Young, with Lincecum second and Webb third.

American League

Cliff Lee was just that good; he's the AL Cy Young in my camp.

Keeping the dense matter to a minimum, let’s do the math for the junior circuit. So filtering the top three in ERA and Wins we get: Cliff Lee (2.54, 22), Roy Halladay (2.81, 20), John Lester (3.21, 16), and Mike Mussina (3.37, 20). It’s safe to eliminate Lester from the list based on the fact that the other three starters won 20 or more games. To further filter the list, only Lee and Halladay cracked the top three in WPA with 5.96 and 3.47 respective indexes.

Let’s not forget percentage of wins: Lee’s wins represented 27% of the Indians’ wins this year (81-81) while Halladay’s accounted for 23% the Blue Jays’ victories.

Again, to keep relievers in the mix, I’ll take a look at the top closer this year in the American League, Francisco Rodriguez. He set the record for saves in a regular season with 62, had a 2.24 era (only good for fourth best among relievers), but his WPA barely puts him in the top five, with a 3.33 index.

The Angels did make the post season, while the Indians had a very disappointing year, but Lee’s numbers were extremly good, far above the best; he only lost three games and won 71% of his starts. Had it not been for that sheer dominance I’d vote for Rodriguez, but Cliff Lee gets my vote for Cy Young in the AL, with Rodriguez second and Halladay third.

Like I said before, I hadn’t really used sabermetrics to gauge my appreciation of player performance, and considering it was my first time really looking at traditional stats mixed with sabermetrics to make an evaluation, I have to say I’m sold. That stuff does not lie.

I don’t think anyone is particularly surprised that the AL Cy Young has just been awarded to C.C. Sabathia. The voting was concluded before his postseason meltdown (and before runner-up Josh Beckett’s postseason kickassery). I am much more surprised that it’s the Indians’ second Cy Young win ever, with the first going to Hall of Famer (and famous spitballer) Gaylord Perry in ‘72. What, no love for Bob Feller or Bob Lemon? As it turns out, the Cy Young award wasn’t invented until 1956, when Cleveland’s best one-two punch prior to Sabathia-Carmona was aging ungracefully.

Nonetheless, this is a storied franchise that has fielded the likes of Cy Young himself, Napoleon Lajoie, Addie Joss, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Tris Speaker, Lou Boudreau, Mel Harder, Joe Sewell, Satchel Paige (who was, by then, quite old), fan favorite Rocky Colavito, Roger Maris, Luis Tiant, Bert Blyleven, Andre Thornton, Sandy Alomar Jr., Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton (every now and then), Orel Hershiser, Charles Nagy, Bartolo Colon (in the glory days), and Omar Vizquel. Phew! You would have thought at least one or two of the dominant pitchers on that list would have snagged a Cy somewhere in that lengthy history.

Which brings me to the trivia part of this post: the Cleveland Indians are one of just four founding teams of the American League to have played their entire history in one city. Can you name the other three?

This year, the Cy Young debate is hardly a debate at all. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Jake Peavy will take home the hardware for the NL, while C.C. Sabathia will be the AL pitcher clearing off his mantel. I suppose I can agree with that. Thus, this post will be dedicated to acknowledging this year’s also-rans.

In the NL, Peavy’s 19-6 record, 223.1 IP, 240 K’s, and 2.54 ERA are hot indeed. But Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks made the same number of starts (34) and pitched more innings (236.1) leading to a few more decisions (18-10). Of course, his ERA is higher (3.01) and his strikeouts were fewer (194). I feel I also ought to mention Brad Penny of the Dodgers and John Smoltz of the Braves. Neither was good enough to be the NL Cy this year, of course, but they still put up good numbers. In fact, their numbers were eerily similar to one another’s. Except, of course, for Smoltz’s better strikeout rate. And we throw a tiny scrap in the direction of Aaron Harang of Cincinnati, for being the Chien-Ming Wang of the NL. Only, because he doesn’t pitch for the Yankees, his name hasn’t been bandied about at all. I’m sure he feels, if not harangued (ha) then at least a bit forlorn.

In the AL, Cleveland’s Sabathia has been a beast. 241 innings pitched! 34 starts! 209 strikeouts! Only 37 walks! And his 3.21 ERA ain’t too shabby either. Plus, I’m sure Cleveland is very happy with the 19-7 record. And he seems determined to single-handedly revive the lost art of the complete game. Of course, he wasn’t exactly masterful against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, but he was good enough to get by. But our sympathies should really extend to Fausto Carmona. If he hadn’t been so overshadowed by the No. 1 starter on his own team, we might be talking about him for the Cy. His ERA is an even better 3.06, and though he pitched fewer innings (215 in 32 starts) and didn’t strike out nearly as many (137) or walk so few (61), his record is nearly identical at 19-8. Then there’s Josh Beckett of the Red Sox, the only 20-game winner during the regular season. No sign of fatigue, either, as he threw a complete-game shutout against the Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS. His 194 K’s and 40 walks in 200.2 innings (in 30 starts) aren’t anything to sneeze at, and his ERA of 3.27 is perfectly decent. But even the nice, round number of 20 wins isn’t quite enough to dislodge C.C. from his throne. Finally, John Lackey has barely gotten a mention, even though he has the best ERA in the league (3.01) and a comparable record (19-9). His 224 IP in 33 starts are better than the other also-rans, and his 179 K’s and 52 walks are certainly comparable. Yet his candidacy barely got any airtime. No, people wanted to talk about Chien-Ming Wang instead. While Wang’s season was impressive, his numbers definitely put him at the bottom of the pack (see Aaron Harang, above). And we curtly nod in the direction of Scott Kazmir, who was the AL strikeout leader this season, but walked 89 batters and who couldn’t do better than 13-9 because of Tampa Bay’s atrocious bullpen. We also acknowledge Eric Bedard, whose monstrous 10.93 K/9 rate would surely have gotten him better than a 13-5 record were he not toiling away for the Orioles.

Remember, also-rans: there’s always next year.

So the Rookie of the Year awards have been handed out and Justin Verlander and Hanley Ramirez are the lucky winners.

For those of you keeping score at home, that means Alejandro is 2-0, having accurately predicted the ROTY winners, while Sarah, Nick and I are 1-1 (Sarah and Nick correctly guessing that Verlander would win but missing on Ramirez, while I got Ramirez right but guessed Liriano would win the AL award).

For the record, we weren’t picking who we thought would win the awards, but who should win the awards, so it’s no big deal to get a pick wrong.

I picked Albert Pujols for MVP, because I think he should win. But I’m pretty sure Ryan Howard is going to win. Certainly, if the ESPN sports reporters are any indication, he will. Of the 18 ESPN writers, 11 voted for Howard, six voted for Pujols and one voted for Beltran.

Howard was a monster in Japan last week. So maybe the ESPN guys know what they’re talking about. Then again, not one of them picked the Tigers to beat the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Not ONE.

Q: What was Cy Young’s real name?

[Answer located in comments section]