90 games into the season, the Florida Marlins remain in the hunt for the NL East crown, and they have done so largely on their ability to knock the crap out of the baseball. They’re currently in fourth in slugging percentage among all 30 teams with a .443 and are actually tops in home runs with a total of 128, which is all the more impressive once you account for the fact that Dolphin Stadium is quite the pitcher’s park. Their middle infielders, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, are probably the most offensively potent 2B-SS combo in the game so far this year (apologies to Philly). First baseman Mike Jacobs has a Dave Kingman-esque .249/.288/.513 line (I think I mean that as a compliment) third baseman Jorge Cantu has come back from the dead to hit 16 HRs to go along with 51 RBIs, and with Josh Willingham missing 2 whole months of action, center fielder Cody Ross has performed admirably to help fill in that gap in production.

And I’m still predicting that before the season is done, the Florida Marlins will find themselves in fourth place in the National League East. I can feel the hate coming from Miami already (do we have Marlins fans as readers?). Allow me to explain.

The Marlins have scored an average of 4.9 runs per game, which is quite good. But it simply isn’t good enough to mask the 5.2 runs they’ve been allowing. If you allow more runs than you score, you lose. That’s just how baseball works. Moreover, the NL East has been downright terrible in games decided by a run. Collectively, they are 55-81 in these situations. In fact, Florida is the only team above .500 in one-run games. So I expect Philadelphia, Atlanta, and New York to rectify this before the season’s done (although Atlanta’s been beating the odds on this one for quite some time now) which is bad news for Florida. The Phillies and Braves have been underplaying their Pythagorean scores while Florida is overplaying theirs.

In addition, I simply don’t think that Dan Uggla in particular will be able to continue hitting for so much power. In 2006 and 2007, Uggla slugged .480 and .479 respectively. This season, he’s at .620, which is an incredible leap, made all the more peculiar by the fact that his line drive rate has been decreasing over this time and he’s not hitting more fly balls either. How you could possibly increase your slugging percentage so dramatically while essentially hitting more ground balls is simply beyond me. His BABiP is an unsustainable .341, and the fact that 23.2% of the flyballs he’s hit has cleared the outfield wall is also too high to be believable for a guy like Uggla, who should be around 13%. To a lesser extent, the same could be said of Mike Jacobs as well. Could it be that these guys are just improving as they enter their primes? Absolutely and I’m not ruling that out by any means. But doubting such severe increases in production like Uggla’s has served me well in the past. He’s good. Just not this good.

However, this is still a team that has Hanley Ramirez, who I think will be the consensus “Best Player in Baseball” within 2-3 years. You can’t ask for a better building block than this guy. And I’m also a fan of Andrew Miller, who might never be an ace, but should be one of the catalysts if/when the Marlins become championship contenders once again. But it’s not going to be this year.

So I hope that the Marlins realize this and not become buyers in July. In fact, by selling some of their pieces (like the resurgent Jorge Cantu at peak value), they’d probably be better off. With Ramirez, Uggla, Willingham, Miller, and the returning Josh Johnson, the Marlins still have some great talent. But I don’t think they’re ready to stay with the Phillies, Braves and Mets just yet.

- What They Need Index -

Our league leader, Paul, suffered a stunning upset as Alejandro’s team continued its inexorable rise up the standings. Sarah’s took two steps forward but then, mysteriously, one step back. And Coley completed a major trade with his fellow cellar-dwellar. But will it be enough to catch Paul? And can Paul hold off Alejandro? Will Sarah ever figure out this “fantasy baseball” thing and achieve her true destiny? Like sands through the hourglass……so are the games of our lives.

Sarah: I finished the week with an unsatisfying 7-5 win. Why was it unsatisfying? Well, my opponent, Sooze, played the entire week with two empty spots in her lineup. And I was winning 8-2 on Sunday morning. At this point, I’m just not sure what to do about my pitching. I try to be smart. I try not to play my guys in situations where they seem doomed to fail. Like the struggling Johnny Cueto, who I benched yesterday because I figured if any situation was going to be hell for a floundering rookie, it would be going against the Yankee lineup while pitching for the very first time in Yankee Stadium. Of course, Cueto finished with seven K’s, no walks, and one run over five innings, scattering four hits. (An hourlong rain delay then cut his day short.) And yet then you figure it’s okay to run a wily veteran like Pedro Martinez out there against the Rockies (although I admit, I had my doubts about the aging Pedro in Coors Field), and he gets slammed for six earned runs in four and a third. So as your fantasy baseball rookie, I admit it: I’m completely lost. Any and all suggestions are welcome. Until then, I’ll just be banging my head against this obliging wall. Hot: J.D. Drew, James Loney, Ian Kinsler, Andy Pettitte. Not: Jacoby Ellsbury (no steals this week, leading to a rare loss of that category by the Green Sox), Brian Wilson, Pedro Martinez, Vernon Wells, Carlos Guillen.

Paul: I ran into a buzzsaw and its name was Alejandro. It wasn’t even close. Completely embarrassing. He won Runs 45-30. Total Bases 143-93. RBIs 50-29. HRs 18-4. 18-4!!! 18-to-freaking-4. And half of my dingers were hit by Kevin Youkilis yesterday. So I had 2 going into the last day of the week. And I have many people to thank for my team’s offensive ineptitude. I’d like to thank Adam Dunn for getting me two whole total bases and nothing else this week, thus proving that you really do love baseball more than anyone. And here’s to Geovany Soto for that lovely .174 OBP. Chris B. Young, I couldn’t have done it without you or your 5TBs and .222 OBP. And Shane Victorino! Your craptastic week also deserves some recognition. (On a side note, there’s a very interesting race going on between Young and Victorino to determine who will be the guy most likely to produce ONLY in games where I sit him on the bench. Looking like a photo finish.) Lastly, an Honorable Mention goes out to Interleague Play. Without you, Jim Thome probably would have had more than 3ABs over the past three days. So give yourself a round of applause, you pointless scheduling catastrophe. Peace, God. Hot: C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Justin Duchscherer, George Sherrill, Jhonny Peralta. Not: Interleague Play, Geovany Soto, Adam Dunn, Shane Victorino, Chris B. Young, Huston Street, my pride.

Alejandro: It’s a week for individuals. So I’ll be poised in celebrating my solid victory over first-place ElDuquesInjuryReport (aka, Paul). Not that I’m a good winner, but everything has to have moderation. You might as well call me lucky because my team won even though the red-hot Chipper Jones went down with an injury, and both the White Sox and Marlins had rough weekends. Remember, it’s a week of individuals. Jermaine Dye was pretty much the ChiSox offense for the last few games, racking up 28 total bases, 13 RBI, 5 home runs, and 7 runs. His OPB? .440 thank you very much. The rest of the White Sox offense was a collection of timely hits and home runs from A.J. Pierzynksi and Alexei Ramirez (both on my team). As for the Marlins, a guy who is basically carbon copy of Hanley Ramirez broke out of his slump and… HIS NAME IS DAAAN UGGLA! Kid his hot! 22 total bases, 9 RBI, 4 home runs, 5 runs, and a very impressive .517 OBP. But again, I’ll be poised. I don’t completely doubt my team for this week, but I’m not expecting great things. Hot: Dan Uggla, Carlos Lee, Jermaine Dye, Billy Wanger, Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Vicente Padilla. Not: Mark Hendrickson, Eric Chavez, Alexi Ramirez, Alex Gordon, Hunter Pence (bench-warmer).

Coley: My latest blockbuster trade involved me sending Jorge Posada, Carlos Pena and Jay Bruce to Sooze for Mark Teixeira and Jack Cust. Teixeira had a totally silent week this week. Until Sunday, that is, when he hit three homers. It wasn’t quite enough to put me over the top. I still lost to Box89RowKKSeat14 7-5, but it’s encouraging to think that Tex might be heating up, because when he gets going he can carry a team, fantasy or otherwise. Also, Vlad Guerrero looks like he’s finally broken out of his season long slump. But it’s hard to tell – everyone looks good when they’re hitting against Kyle Kendrick. Hot: Vlad Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Mark Teixeira, Greg Maddux, John Danks. Not: Carlos Delgado, Jack Cust, Dice-K, C.J. Wilson.

Standings (games behind)

1. Paul - ElDuquesInjuryReport ( - )
2. Scott - Utley’s Firm Quads ( 3 )
3. Alejandro - Center Field Stud ( 5.5 )
4. Doug - Swamp Dragons ( 6.5 )
5. Sarah - Somerville Green Sox ( 10 )
6. Kirk - Montefusco’s Revenge ( 19.5 )
7. Ania - Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 22.5 )
8. Bryan - Pirates in ‘08! ( 23 )
9. Larry - croutchyoldman ( 26.5 )
10. Coley - Crunkball All-Stars ( 28 )
11. Caitlin - caitlin grace ( 31.5 )
12. Sooze - freebase my balls ( 34 )

The week six results for the UmpBump fantasy league are in. Time for quick look at who’s performing and who isn’t!

Sarah: This was a terrible week for the Somerville Green Sox. What sort of terrible? Well, my one save was taken away after the official scorer realized he’d made a mistake, making me the only one in the UmpBump league to finish the week without a single save. And then Vernon Wells, he of the 5 homers and 24 RBI, broke his wrist. That’s the sort of week it was. That said, my team did not play badly (except for a truly abysmal Saturday when they racked up the o-fers like they were on clearance). And in fact, of the 11 other teams in our league, there are only three who would have beaten me this week and only one that would have really kicked my ass. Unfortunately, that’s the team I was playing. After a week of intense back and forth, my men ultimately fell like fall leaves before the one-man onslaught that is Lance Berkman. (Seriously, a .741 OBP for the week? 25 bases? Two homers and two steals? Who can compete with that??) I fell from No. 3 in our league back to the five-slot. I finally admitted that Yovani Gallardo was not coming back this season, that I could never truly trust Kyle Lohse, and that Mark Mulder (still on the DL) was not going to solve my problems. I dropped all of them and picked up Dana Eveland, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Homer Bailey (call him up already!). Hot: Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler, Andy Pettitte (for now, anyway) Not: Eric Gagne (I’m, like, soooo surprised), Johnny Cueto (tons of K’s, sky-high ERA—why?! WHY?!).

Alejandro: I cannot be stopped. I’m on a roll. Watch out. Actually, I’m not tearing it up exactly, but I did have a convincing 8-3 win over Pirates in ‘08!. I won 5 offensive categories and tied in the sixth, and I have to thank my superb GM skills for picking up Dan Uggla on waivers. I could use better pitching, as I only collected 2 wins (though I did rack up 4 saves), so I’m taking a gamble on Vicente Padilla, who’s 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA. I also rid myself of the disaster that is Kevin Millwood. I am now 1 game under .500. Next stop, league leader. Hot: Dan Uggla, Alex Gordon, Carlos Lee, Emil Brown (is he for real?), Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum (man crush!). Not: Dustin Pedroia (trade anyone?), Fred Lewis (what was I thinking?), Gavin Floyd (but I can’t give up on him yet!), Kevin Milwood (DROPPED).

Paul: So ElDuquesInjuryReport keeps on truckin’. But I can’t seem to shake off Scott’s Utley’s Firm Quads, who’s only two games behind me in the standings. While it’s way too early in the season to be worried about much of anything (except for a Jorge Sosa appearance in a close and late game), I’m already wondering if this is going to be a tight race all year. As far as my roster is concerned, I had two tough decisions to make. With the respective returns of Shane Victorino and Scott Kazmir from the DL, I had to drop a pitcher and a position player. The decision on the pitching front wasn’t so difficult, since it’s becoming more and more apparent that there’s something wrong with Jeremy Bonderman. His strikeouts have plummeted and his walks have skyrocketed. So he’s out. But I spent a good three days mulling over whether or not I should keep Victorino or Ryan Church. Is Church for real? Or is this just a case of a guy who’s playing way over his head? Ultimately, I decided to just let the historical numbers tell me what to do, and let Church go. He then proceeds to crank out three dingers. And is now on Scott’s team. Awesome. Hot: The Greek God of Walks (5 HRs! 10 RBIs! 30TBs!), Ted Lilly, C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee. Not: Jhonny Peralta, Brian Roberts, Andy Sonnanstine.

Coley: Another week, another loss. At least this one was close. One more run and one more HR and we would have tied. Oh well. The good news is I was able to snag Milton Bradley as a free agent. Anytime you can add a guy with a .424 OBP for free, that’s a good day. I also picked up Guillermo Mota, in the hope that he becomes Milwaukee’s regular closer. After yesterday’s Soloman Torres implosion, I feel good about Mota’s chances. Hot: Josh Hamilton, Scott Rolen, Milton Bradley, Dice-K. Not: Jered Weaver, Brett Myers, Melky Cabrera.