As you can imagine from the name, the Hank Aaron Award is given out annually to the best offensive player in each league. And every year, a team is allowed to submit three names for consideration.

And I really, really, hate beating this horse into a tartare, but the Mets, as a result of all their injuries, submitted these three names: David Wright, Luis Castillo, and Angel Pagan. Really.

I imagine that this is akin to Seth Green being the name submitted for Oscar consideration by the producers of Without a Paddle.

As most people know by now, Mets third baseman David Wright was just put on the 15-day disabled list with a concussion after getting beaned in the head Saturday afternoon by a 94-mph fastball from Giants pitcher Matt Cain.  Wright had been the heart and soul of the Mets this season, carrying the team on his back at times and almost single-handedly keeping them on the edges of contention for at least a little while, even after injuries decimated the squad and often left Wright as the only recognizable name in the lineup.

However, given the long lingering after-effects of concussions, and the damage the Mets did to Ryan Church last year in trying to rush him back from two separate concussions, some people are calling for the Mets to shut Wright down for the rest of the season, especially given that the Mets have no chance of making the playoffs.

But Wright himself is adamant that he will return to the playing field this year, and is aiming to be back on the field by September 1, the first day he is eligible. Wright’s manager Jerry Manuel has also repeatedly made comments suggesting that Wright is a special player who can somehow magically come back from concussions sooner than others. Wright himself even went so far as to say he was “embarrassed” by his first trip to the DL, that’s how much pride he takes in his own durability.

So you make the call. Assuming that doctors give Wright a clean bill of health and clear him to return to play, should the Mets let him back into a ballgame this year, even though they have no chance of reaching the postseason?

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Oh boy.

Photo courtesy of The Legend of Cecilio Guante

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but Mets’ third baseman David Wright is having kind of an odd year. Much of his numbers are more than solid – most notably the .333 AVG (6th in NL) and the .432 OBP (also 6th). But with 213 plate appearances in the books this year, Wright is stuck on 3 HRs and is on pace for only 10 dingers for the season. And that’s not the odd part. The oddity is that the guy has been stuck on 3 HRs for nearly a month and is yet slugging .483. That’s a pretty rare disparity between low HR total and high slugging.

To get a sense of how rare this would be if Wright maintained this rate (he probably won’t, but bear with me), I checked to see when’s the last time anyone has slugged so high while hitting less than or equal to 10 homers (minimum 600 PAs). The answer? In 1988, Wade Boggs slugged .490 with five measly HRs. In fact, Boggs (also did this in 1986 and 1983), Tony Gwynn (1987) and Willie McGee (1985) are the only three hitters to qualify under the criteria since the 1961 expansion.

What’s more, both Boggs and Gwynn were more reliant on their batting averages to sustain their slugging percentages than Wright is right now. The Mets’ golden boy has a .150 ISOP (isolated power = slugging % – batting average), meaning that he is getting more extra base hits than Boggs or Gwynn did in their respective qualifying seasons.

But Wright’s performance this year has thus far been a near mirror-image to Willie McGee’s 1985, when the Cardinals center fielder (and one of the most awkward runners I have ever seen in my life) led the league with a .353 batting average to go along with a .503 slugging (equaling Wright’s .150 ISOP) and 10 home runs, earning Willie his first and only MVP Award.

And if that’s not odd enough, Wright is on pace to steal 40 bases – far more than the 21.5 SBs he has averaged since 2005 – which again is reminiscent of McGee’s ‘85 when he stole 56 bases (a good deal more than he had ever or would ever swipe again).

However, like I said, it’s a pretty safe bet that Wright won’t be joining the ranks of those stars of the 1980s because of one of two reasons (or both):

1. David currently has a ludicrously high .460 BABiP which leads all of MLB. A return towards his career BABiP of .348 will surely drop his batting average considerably (and along with it, his slugging).
2. He’s got more power than this. Sure, Citi Field is looking to be a major pitcher’s park. But that alone doesn’t explain everything as only one of Wright’s three homers has been hit on the road. And seeing as his GB/FB ratio and infield fly % are still in line with his career patterns, there’s really no reason to believe (yet, anyway) that something is truly amiss. It’s still a pretty safe bet to claim that Wright’s home run totals – especially on the road – are bound to improve quite a bit. We had a similar situation two years ago and Wright still finished with 30 HRs.

So I’m afraid that this statistical anomaly won’t last very long. Either David’s slugging is going to come down or his HRs are going to return. But I like abnormalities like this – especially when it gives me a chance to think about Willie McGee.

On his blog, sportswriter Jonah Keri addresses one of my biggest pet-peeves as a Met fan, namely, blaming David Wright for being “unclutch”. Keri writes:

The problem with the argument that Wright deserves scorn because he doesn’t come through in the clutch is that…it’s completely false. Here are David Wright’s splits from 2006-2008:

Overall: .312 AVG/.396 OBP/.537 SLG
Runners On: .313/.399/.546
Scoring Position: .304/.400/.504
Bases Loaded: .341/.392/.610

Keri’s right, of course. It’s ludicrous to expect Wright – or anybody for that matter – to do much better. He doesn’t make outs and he gets his hits, often for extra bases. What more do you want?

But I want to point out something else in defense of David Wright. Because I just know that people will still look at these numbers that Keri provides and claim that #5 doesn’t come through when it matters, by which I assume they mean when games hang in the balance. Which, again, is a load of crap.

In “high leverage” situations (plate appearances thatoccurred in the most important portion of the game) throughout his career, Wright has a line of .315/.398/.529. That’s pretty damned awesome.  Let’s try different numbers that seems less arbitrary.

Late and Close: .306/.409/.479
Tie Game: .315/.392/534
Games Within One Run: .320/.404/.534
In September & October: .327/.395/.554

Once again… Doesn’t make outs. Gets his hits. Often for extra bases.

How unrealistic are people’s expectations if this isn’t good enough? Why are we booing him for a sub-par month? Don’t you think he knows he’s gotten off to a slow start? You’re not exactly telling him something he doesn’t know. Cut it out.

At 5pm today, voting closes for each league’s 25th All-Star over at MLB.com. As of this writing, Evan Longoria leads the AL voting, which is fine by me although Giambi’s another worthy choice. But I do have a problem with Corey Hart being the top vote-getter for the National League. The man’s a fine player, to be sure, and I’m glad to see he’s getting some recognition. But he simply hasn’t been as good as 3 of the other eligible candidates, David Wright, Carlos Lee, and Pat Burrell (Why is Aaron Rowand eligible? Can someone please explain this to me?).

However, in my mind, there is one clear choice. And as a Mets fan, I obviously have to vote for… Pat Burrell.

Whoa. Did I just write that? Hold on. Let me try this again. <ahem> I think we should all head over to MLB.com right now before 5pm and vote for… Pat Burrell.

Dagnabit! There it is again. Why can’t I just write David Wright? D-A-V-I-D W-R-I-G-H-T. He’s clearly a deserving All-Star. And I can’t vote for Pat Burrell!!! He’s a Phillie! I think I’ve been possessed. Excuse me while I undergo an exorcism:

FATHER DAMIEN KARRAS: Remember Paul. You’re a Met fan. And a fan stands by his team.

PRINCE OF DARKNESS: But Burrell’s been better.

FATHER KARRAS: Lies! Such Lies! Wright has a better batting average!

PRINCE OF DARKNESS: By three measly points. Totally inconsequential.

FATHER KARRAS: Look at the RBIs, Paul! The RBIs! Wright has 16 more!

THE P.O.D.: Only because Wright has had 213 plate appearances with runners on base. Burrell has only had 145 and has performed much better in those situations than Wright.

FATHER KARRAS: NOW YOU JUST WAIT A… Huh? Really?

THE DUDE WITH THE HORNS: Yup.

FATHER KARRAS: But what about defense! Ah-Ha! David plays third base – a far more demanding and important position than left field and does so admirably!

THE MAN WHO OWNS RYAN SEACREST’S SOUL: That may be true. But Burrell’s .414 OBP and .587 slugging percentage is more helpful to his team than Wright is with his .381/.504. Glove or no glove.

FATHER KARRAS: But Philly’s a hitter’s park while Shea is a pitcher’s paradise!

DAVE GROHL: Still doesn’t account for that much a disparity. OPS-Plus, which is park-adjusted, has Burrell miles ahead of Wright, 157 to 136. It’s no contest. And Burrell also has Wright beat in Win Shares.

FATHER KARRAS: Why do you speak in such evil tongues? Paul, remember you are a Met fan! A MET FAN! HE’S A PHILLIE!!!

PRINCE OF DARKNESS: Sorry Padre. But the man’s mind is made up. It’s Burrell.

FATHER KARRAS: NNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

………..

So, yeah. Go vote for Pat the Bat. He deserves it.

The fantasy season is now in its third month. How our teams—and their stars—did last week:

Sarah: I should have known. No sooner do I start crowing about my unstoppable offense than the fantasy baseball gods look down from their airy perches and decide to smite me for my hubris. The Somerville Green Sox hitters got off to such an anemic start this week that I was pleased just to escape with a 7-5 loss rather than the 10-2 drubbing that earlier seemed to be my fate. My pitchers reverted to their natural, awful state, but I hope that will change, as I used my waiver priority to pick up Clayton Kershaw. Yes, he promptly (and unsurprisingly, really) got rocked by the Mets, but I look forward to his games against the weaker NL offenses. I also revamped my closing staff, dumping part-time-sub Manny Acosta and bad juju-machine Eric Gagne in favor of Brian Wilson and Rafael Soriano. I’ve got more pitching moves to make in the near future, as Pedro Martinez, who I picked up ages ago, is finally set to come off the DL tomorrow. Hot: Jacoby Ellsbury (8 SB!), Ryan Braun (19 TB!), Russell Martin, Xavier Nady. Not: David Murphy (why do I still have him?), James Loney, JD Drew (yes, he had a .462 OBP last week, but only 7 TB because all he does is walk—swing, jackass!), Rickie Weeks (not having the breakout year I had planned on), Carlos Guillen (ouchie), and last week’s hero, Dana Eveland, who got shelled.

Coley: That’s right, I was that guy. I was the guy who drafted Jay Bruce and stashed him on the bench for two months. And you snickered. You thought, “what a reckless use of bench space.” But now who’s laughing? Now who looks smart? Me! Of course, now I’ve got a bit of a problem, though it’s a good problem to have. I’ve got too many outfielders. There’s Milton Bradley, Josh Hamilton, Johnny Damon, Vlad Guererro, Carl Crawford and Jay Bruce. Of course, I could just keep one of them on my bench as insurance. Or I could deal one for pitching. Thoughts? Hot: Jay Bruce, Josh Hamilton, Johnny Damon, Todd Helton, Brad Lidge. Not: Yunel Escobar, Carlos Pena, Jered Weaver.

Alejandro: When it first seemed like my Center Field Stud was finally going to lose after four consecutive weeks of victories, my offense decided to check in. Glad as I was of the offensive prowess of Aaron Rowand, Carlos Lee, and Jermaine Dye, Montefusco’s Revenge didn’t go down quietly, beating me out in 4 out 6 offensive categories. I don’t know how, but my pitching carried the load, returning the favor and wining 5 out 6 stats. The only loss was due to my “bloated” 3.97 era, all thanks to Mr. Mark Hendrickson hitting a wall and getting tagged for 10 freakin’ runs, oh and for B.J. Ryan finally succumbing to statistical trends and blowing a save. Tim Linceum continues to dominate, but the surprise has been Todd Wellemeyer who very quietly is posting very impressive numbers (1-0, 1.29 ERA, 4Ks, 1.14 WHIP – though if I were to trust my colleague Nick Kapur, I should be trading him, like, NOW!). Hot: Aaron Rowand, Jermaine Dye (not really, but he did hit a home run and collected 11 TBs), Tim Lincecum, Todd Wellemeyer, Josh Becket (no wins, but 10 Ks!), Kerry Wood (4 saves and a negligible ZERO era), Jon Garland (another non-winner, 8-Ker, 2.19 ERA). Not: Dan Uggla, A.J. Pierzynksi (what a seesaw), Connor Jackson (boy’s hurting, give him some time).

Paul: Me win. Conquer Sooze and Sooze army (freebase my balls). Win lucky though. ElDuque’sInjuryReport no play good. Pitchers had ERA over 5. Still won Wins, Saves, K, and K/BB, whatever that mean. How that happen? David Wright do good. All-Star. Me Met fan. When Wright do good, make me happy. Shane Victorino good too. Scored thirteen runs on own! WOW! Only got on base safely 13 times all week! Still scored 13! Phillies have big bats! Me still think Brett Myers dumb… Me also bring Randy Winn on team. Matt Holliday hurt. Needed outfielder. Winn outfielder. Good match. But two days later, saw Travis Hafner get dropped. Me clubbed Winn over head with big stick. Winn go sleep. Me dragged Winn to garbage pit. Picked up Pronk instead. Brought Pronk home. Pronk easy name for caveman to say. Bye bye Winn. HOT: David Wright, Shane Victorino, Scott “Cy Young” Kazmir. NOT: Geovany Soto, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris B. Young, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda.

Standings, with games behind:

1. Paul (ElDuquesInjuryReport) (0)

2. Scott (Utley’s Firm Quads) (5.5)

3. Doug (Swamp Dragons) (9.5)

4. Alejandro (Center Field Stud) (12.5)

5. Sarah (Somerville Green Sox) (14)

6. Kirk (Montefusco’s Revenge) (20)

7. Larry (croutchyoldman) (22)

6. Bryan (Pirates in 08!) (22.5)

9. Ania (Box89RowKKSeat14) (26.5)

10. Sooze (freebase my balls) (29.5)

11. Coley (Crunkball All Stars) (31.5)

12. Caitlin (caitlin grace) (34.5)

Tomorrow, MLB will announce the winner of the National League MVP Award. Candidates include Chipper Jones, Jimmy Rollins, David Wright, Prince Fielder and Matt Holliday.

A while back Paul and I debated who should win the award and he ultimately convinced me that David Wright is the clear choice.

I emailed that post to Philadelphia Daily News baseball writer Paul Hagen, who is the former head of the Baseball Writers Association of America, and asked him what he thought of Wright’s candidacy. Here’s what he had to say:

Umpbump: Like most Phillies fans I’m hoping Jimmy Rollins will win the NL MVP, while I fully expect Matt Holliday will win. It wasn’t until recently, however, that I was convinced that David Wright should win. What do you think of David Wright for NL MVP?

PH: I think an argument can be made for David Wright. However, I have to say that in the years I vote, I put a lot of emphasis on the word “Valuable.” To me, that connotes intangibles. I think that’s what differentiates the MVP from, say, a “Player of the Year” award. And it would be hard for me to find that much value in a player who was part of one of the most epic collapses in baseball history.

Umpbump: See, that’s funny. We’ve been having a long debate about the value of intangibles in the comments section of our site this week. Sarah, who is a columnist for the Boston Metro, thinks intangibles are extremely important. Paul and Nick, who are sabermetrics guys, think intangibles can’t be measured and therefore we shouldn’t worry about them.

Here’s what Nick had to say about intangibles:

This is different from saying that “leadership” as a skill doesn’t exist. I think we all have some idea that these intangibles *do* exist and *are* worth something. But I suspect that what they are worth is far far less than what the media types who KNOW because they’ve BEEN IN THE LOCKER ROOM say it is. It’s probably like clutch hitting – maybe it makes like a 1 or 2 percent contribution to winning or something, the rest of which is comprised of actually getting it done on the actual field.

Because, look, if “team chemistry” is as valuable as you columnists all say it is, then how do we account for all the teams that won World Series but totally hated each other? How do we account for all the teams that loved each other and loved their manager, but never won? How do we account for the fact that, even in the middle of the hottest hot streak, or the coldest cold streak, a player’s chance of getting a hit in his next at bat is pretty much *exactly* equal to his career batting average?

You can read the rest of Sarah and Nick’s thoughts in the comments section of this post.

As for Wright and his team’s collapse, I used to feel the same way. In fact, I wrote:

Believe me, if the MLB had an award for sabermetric achievement, I would support David Wright’s candidacy wholeheartedly. But how valuable can you be when you’re team implodes spectacularly when the games matter most?

But, as Umpbump Paul points out, you can’t blame Wright for the Mets’ failures. He was dominant down the stretch:

You simply can’t hold it against David Wright that the Mets fell apart. Did you know that he had a .360 AVG, .429 OBP, .602 SLG, 1.034 OPS in the month of September even though the team’s season was going down the tubes? Didn’t he perform “when it counted”?

I gotta say, I think Umpbump Paul is correct. As much as I’d like to see Rollins win, if I’m being honest I vote for Wright.

PH: That’s what makes it such a great debate. I still kind of hold to the idea that you can’t be that valuable, no matter what your individual contributions, if your team is falling apart around you. But I certainly understand the other argument.

Umpbump: I’m not sure that a total lack of consensus about the meaning of “valuable” makes it a great debate. I think we can have a great debate about the value of the save, or the merits of “small ball”. But arguing about who is the most valuable when nobody can agree what “valuable” means reminds me of when I used to talk to a friend of mine who was color blind. We’d be talking about the same thing, but seeing it differently.

I’d be happy to see MLB get rid of the MVP award and give out a Player of the Year Award, instead.

PH: When I was president of the Baseball Writers Association, I proposed that we add a Player of the Year Award. My thought was that it wouldbe the position player’s equivalent of the Cy Young, could honor a player who has a great year for a bad team and would also open up the MVP more for pitchers. It got no support.

As for doing away with the MVP, I disagree. I also think that if you can enjoy a debate about the value of a save or the value of small ball, you can certainly debate who was the most valuable player. But that’s just me.

Umpbump: Fair enough. We’ll agree to disagree. One last question: do you read blogs? And if so, which ones?

PH: As for blogs, I frankly don’t make a point of finding them. If I run across one or somebody brings one to my attention, of course I’ll read it.

UPDATE

Umpbump: Jimmy Rollins won the NL MVP. Who did you vote for?

PH: My top four, as I recall, were Rollins, Holliday, Fielder, Chipper Jones.

Umpbump: No David Wright?

PH: David Wright was not in the upper half. If it had been the Player of the Year Award, he wold have been.