I’m going to post my own World Series preview later today, where I go position by position. But first I wanted to point out that Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin has his own preview up, where he compares the Phillies lineup to the Yankees lineup. Much of the column is fine, but he starts out with one big, steaming turd:

Leadoff: Jimmy Rollins vs. Derek Jeter

The Yankees’ captain is a first- ballot Hall of Fame lock. Rollins adds to his credentials year-by-year. Both are run scorers and producers. Give Jeter the edge as a pure hitter, Rollins check marks for power from both sides and speed. Jeter’s intangibles are off the charts. Rollins revels on the Big Stage.

RINGS: Rollins 1, Jeter 4.

EDGE: Even.

Even? Wow. That’s pretty bold. Jimmy Rollins had a terrible year, while Jeter had a career year and if not for Joe Mauer he’d probably be your AL MVP. Really, here’s all you need to know about the Rollins vs. Jeter debate. A leadoff hitter’s job is to get on base. Rollins was much better at getting on base after the All Star break, but even then his OBP was only .305, which is absolutely terrible. Jeter’s OBP this season was .406 and his career OBP is .388, a much higher mark than Rollins has ever posted in a single season.

I love the Phillies and I love Rollins, but it is impossible to make an intelligent argument that Rollins is a better leadoff hitter than Jeter, which is probably why Conlin keeps things so vague in his column. Rollins gets “check marks for power from both sides” of the plate? Against lefties, J-Ro had two more home runs than Jeter. Against righties, Rollins had one more home run. Does that make up for the 100 points of OBP? Or Jeter’s 40 point advantage in slugging? Bill, did you take into account that Jeter played in a league with stronger pitching? Bill, when you give Rollins check marks for speed, is that because he had one more stolen base this season than Jeter? Because that seems pretty negligible. And did you notice that Jeter actually had a better stolen base percentage? Because that actually seems relevant.

Come on, Bill. Rollins is the man, and when it comes to making bold predictions and giving good quotes he has no peer. And you could make the case that Rollins is a better defender, even though ultimate zone rating suggests Jeter had the better season defensively, as well.

But Jeter is the better leadoff hitter, and it isn’t close.

Derek Jeter’s career on-base percentage: .387
Lou Gehrig’s career on-base percentage: .447

Derek Jeter’s career total times on base: 3736
Lou Gehrig’s career total times on base: 4274

Jeter has a ways to go.

The rate at which home runs have been flying out of the new Yankee Stadium has been a hot topic since the first weeks of the season, but up to now the statheads have been urging caution and calm. “Small sample size” they have cried.

But as we close in on the two month mark, it is becoming increasingly more clear that New Yankee Stadium is one of the greatest home run parks of all time.

Indeed, in only its first season, the stadium is already on pace to smash the mark for most home runs hit at a ballpark in a single season.  The current record was set at pre-humidor Coors Field in 1999, when 303 homers were bashed (making Coors only stadium ever to surpass 300 thus far). But with 82 homers hit at Yankee Stadium already in only 22 games, the stadium is on pace for a ridiculous 317 homers this year.

Averaged out, an astounding 3.91 homers per game have been hit in the Bronx so far this season. By comparison, 1.98 homers were hit per game at Old Yankee Stadium last season, which is right around the typical American League average of about 2.00 per game.

What went wrong

So what exactly is wrong with New Yankee Stadium?  Well, recent wind studies have demonstrated that the new ballpark is about 20% more likely than the old one on any given day to have a wind blowing out to the outfield of 10 mph or more, with the likelihood increasing even further in the spring and fall. Given that a tail wind of 10 miles per hour will cause a typical borderline homerun ball to travel about 25 feet further, a significant assist that is only increased as the windspeed goes up.

Just watching the highlights of the homers hit out of New Yankee Stadium so far, this wind assist is plain to see. Anything hit fairly high in the air takes off once it gets into the wind, especially to right field. Guys are hitting home runs one handed, or even when they get jammed or get too far under the ball.  And when players actually do hit the ball right on the screws, they are hitting monstrous bombs.

Only adding to the homer woes, the stadium designers pulled a fast one with the dimensions in right field.  Although the most often cited dimensions, such as down the foul lines and to straightaway center are the same as the old park, thus preserving “Yankee tradition,” the designers flattened out the sharp dogleg in the right field wall, meaning that in some places, the right field wall is as much as nine feet closer to home plate in the new stadium.

This is pretty huge, and very significant when the old stadium was already legendary for having one of the shortest right field porches in the entire game (allegedly designed for the Babe).  Already this season somewhere in the region of ten homers have been hit out to right field that would not have gone out in the old stadium, just judging by distance alone, before wind is even taken into account.

What to do now

It’s obviously a little too late to go back and fix a $1.5 billion stadium.  And I’m actually of the opinion that having different stadiums that play differently is one of baseball’s charms, unlike football or basketball where the dimensions are always identical.

But what the Yankees do need to do is build a team that will be best suited to their stadium. And they need to start now.  Here are my recommendations:

Read the rest of this entry »

With Team USA set to go up against an extremely slick-fielding Japanese team tonight in their semifinal matchup to determine who goes to the championship game against Korea, USA manager Davey Johnson is going with a bafflingly bad defensive alignment.

First of all, it is highly questionable to go with an outfield of Ryan Braun in left, Curtis Granderson in center, and Adam Dunn in right.  Granderson is decent enough, but I am tempted to say that an outfield of Granderson in center and two completely immoble industrial-sized trash dumpsters in left and right would catch more fly balls.

But most baffling of all is Davey Johnson’s decision to go with worst-defensive-shortstop-in-baseball Derek Jeter at short while actually-pretty-good-defensive-shortstop Jimmy Rollins is the DH!

Actually, this is of course not baffling at all, since most crusty old baseball men still think Jeter is awesome at defense, but really, it’s hard to think of a defensive move more damaging to the squad’s chances of victory, other than putting Dunn at 2B or something.

The Yankees have problems. They’re not going to make the playoffs. The two young guns who are supposed to anchor the rotation for years, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, have alternated between bad and injured. Their defense up the middle is crap. Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera both regressed this season. And Jeter seems to be in decline.

But that’s not what’s keeping the Yankees brass up at night. SI’s Jon Heyman reported last week that “club higherups are concerned” about A-Rod and “they are even wondering aloud whether his off-field distractions are affecting his play.”

Says Heyman:

He may be partially a victim of high standards, his otherworldy 2007 season and his second gargantuan contract, this one for $275 guaranteed plus $30 million in makeable incentives. But A-Rod is batting only .244 with runners in scoring position, so that stat line of .309, 28 homers and 78 RBIs isn’t quite what it seems.

Actually, as of Tuesday afternoon, A-Rod is hitting .250 with runners in scoring position. That’s nothing to brag about, for sure. But just how bad is it?

It’s a heck of a lot better than Jason Giambi’s .205 AVG with RISP, or Melky Cabrera’s .204 line.

It’s not nearly as good as Ian Kinsler’s .413 AVG with RISP.

It’s a little better than Evan Longoria and Jack Cust, and a little worse than Ichiro, Carlos Pena and Jermaine Dye.

It’s bad. But it’s not historically bad.

Of course, batting average with runners in scoring position is not the only measure of a hitter’s clutchness. The Hardball Times has developed a stat that looks at Bill James’s Runs Created formula and factors in the impact of a batter’s batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. They call the stat “clutch.”

(The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on.)

Who, according to this stat, is 2008’s most clutch player? Melvin “Freaking” Mora. And who is the least clutch? Alex Rodriguez – and it’s not close.

That’s no surprise, right? A-Rod has always been unclutch. He’s a choker. The anti-Jeter. Even before Madonna, Rodriguez shrank in the biggest situations.

But wait! Last year, A-Rod was the fourth most clutch player in baseball. He hit .330 with RISP. And, while that still wasn’t as good as Jeter’s .354 AVG with RISP, it’s still very good. In 2006, A-Rod hit a respectable .302 with RISP and his clutchness rating was middle of the pack, better than Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez, but not nearly as good as Carl Crawford or Michael Young.

So A-Rod, while he’s no Jeter, is kinda clutch, provided you adhere to the Hardball Times’ definition. Of course, the problem with clutchness is that nobody can agree on exactly what it means. Who’s to say that RISP is the be-all-end-all? Why not look at a player’s ability to hit in games where the score is close after seven innings? Why not look at a hitter’s ability to produce with runners in scoring position and two outs.

I was talking to Paul about A-Rod’s clutchness and he pointed out that most hitters have slightly better numbers with RISP than otherwise. For one, sacrifice flies with runners on third don’t count against your batting average.

But A-Rod’s numbers with runners in scoring position are slightly worse than his overall numbers. From 2005-2008, here are his numbers overall:

BA: .308

OBP: .409

SLG: .591

AB/SO: 4.41

AB/HR: 13.21

And here’s what he did over that span with RISP:

BA: .296

OBP: .426

SLG: .526

AB/SO: 3.64

AB/HR: 16.19

It’s not a big difference, but it’s enough to suggest that A-Rod doesn’t thrive with runners in scoring position (though maybe the reason his OBP went up and his slugging and average went down is because he doesn’t see as many strikes in tight situations?).

Regardless, there’s no debating that A-Rod has been unclutch this year. That may be Madonna’s fault. But the Yankees’ third baseman isn’t historially unclutch. And least not enough to worry about. And he certainly isn’t the biggest reason the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs this season. Not even close.

What lurks beneath the lid?

I’ve always loved coffee, but it’s Suz who bears responsibility for turning me into a bonafide java-snob. Your dark roasts, your light roasts, your medium roasts–I love them all. Whether it’s an exotic peaberry from Tanzania, a pure Kona from Hawaii, or a humble-but-hearty house blend, I’ll never say no to Joe. And while I frequent several lovely independent cafes, more often than not I end up swinging by my local Starbucks to feed my addiction.

So imagine my joy when I ran across Starbucks Gossip, the unofficial blog of the chain’s baristas. And imagine my voyeuristic sense of satisfaction when I read this post on what the celebs drink and found it to contain several ballplayers. Coffee and baseball! Two of my favorite things! Commingling in caffeinated bliss!

Assuming you don’t share my obsession with celebrity gossip, I’ve thoughtfully pared down the list to just baseball players:

Posted by: SoCalBarista | August 17, 2008 at 02:49 PM

Derek Jeter came in to our store a week ago and ordered a double tall non-fat latte.

Should've gotten decaf.

Posted by: Will | August 18, 2008 at 08:31 AM

Roger Clemens orders a Venti Earl Grey and Venti no-whip Caramel Frap

Jeff Bagwell gets a tall nonfat latte and tall awake.

Posted by: :) | August 18, 2008 at 04:43 PM

For the baseball fans, Joe Nathan, one of the top pitchers in the country, of the Minnesota Twins came to my store. He ordered a grande vanilla bean creme frappiccino and a banana loaf. He was really rude. Drove up and on his cell phone, wouldn’t even acknowledge me, and no tip of course. I also found it weird that an athlete was having such a fattening non-caffeinated bev.

Posted by: Borrowed Partner | August 18, 2008 at 08:46 PM

Roger Clemens got a caramel frap and a slice of lemon pound cake at my old store. Tipped well and was very nice.

Posted by: Boston Starbucks Rebel | August 18, 2008 at 08:51 PM

JoeTori [sic] came into my store and got a caramel macchiato.

But really, you should read the entire thread. There’s something oddly compelling about seeing Barack Obama, Cameron Diaz, and Chuck Norris all jumbled together through the barista lens. Plus, you find out things like that Tiger Woods doesn’t tip, that Michael Jordan only tips the change (but pays with a $20, so it’s okay), that Kevin Garnett gets his coffee venti-sized (TOP OF THE WOOOORLD! TOP OF THE WOOOORLD!!!!), and that Chad Johnson double parks in the handicapped space (why am I not surprised?). Sometimes, they are who we thought they were. But other times (I’m looking at YOU, Joe Torre) the beverages offer up a surprise.

Personally, I’m a grande bold with room, tips the change. Or I did until I read this post.

At least I’m still ahead of Taylor throws-the-drink-back-through-the-drivethru-window Swift. C’mon Taylor…that’s not our song!

In this week’s Metro column, I boldly made the following claim:

[Manny] Ramirez is arguably the best active player to have never received an MVP award. He’s certainly the best active player to be so consistently snubbed; of similar players, he has the fewest top-five finishes without ever finishing in the top two.

But of course, Manny is far from the only great active player to never take home the trophy, and while I was cogitating about this column, I got to talking about these players with my co-conspirators here at UmpBump. We bandied about some other names of active players who have, amazingly enough, never won an MVP: Gary Sheffield and Jim Thome lead the pack, in my mind, and you could make a case for perennially beloved also-rans Derek Jeter and David Ortiz as well.

Sure, there are fantastic younger guys who haven’t won the trophy yet. But when it comes to the David Wrights, Chase Utleys, and Hanley Ramirezes of baseball, one can say, “Hey, he’s still young.” And there are deserving players who are always a long shot to take home the hardware simply by virtue of their position; most pitchers and designated hitters suffer this fate. (I’ve included Ortiz here on my list of snubs because a) yes, I’m a Red Sox fan and this is my list, you jerks and b) he’s finished in the top 5 of the MVP balloting for the past four years running—a neat trick for any player, even more so considering the entrenched bias among many members of the BBWAA against voting for a full-time DH.)

But with the Sheffs and the Mannys and the Thomes, it’s a different story. You can’t necessarily point to a certain year and say, “This is the year he deserved to win,” but you’re still surprised to learn he’s never gotten the trophy.

Of active players, who do you think is the biggest MVP snub? Anyone going to take a stand for Todd Helton? Or Mike Piazza, still technically active? Any secret Carlos Delgado fans out there?

Who gets your vote?

more at twiigs.com…

Sunday night is a bittersweet time. You’re all nice and relaxed from the weekend…but then…what’s that noise?! Did you hear something lurking in the shadows? GAAAH! It’s MONDAY MORNING! RUUUNNN!!! So here’s a few links to lull you back into a false sense of security:

Fire Brand of the American League on the Roy Oswalt – to – Boston – at – the – deadline rumors.

The Kansas City Star on all the stuff you can get with a Royals ticket stub (warning: you may need an Excel spreadsheet to keep track of it all).

The Bleacher Report on what the Rangers could do to become contenders—this season.

The Other Fifteen made a heat map to compare Tulo’s range with Jeter’s. Guess who wins!

View from the Cheap Seats is piiiiiiiissed at Tony LaRussa for letting Adam Wainwright chuck 130 pitches when he’s the Cards’ only good, healthy starter. Viva El Birdos is also concerned.

Phil Hughes lets Morgan Ensberg guest blog. The results are sort of like a Jackson Pollock painting.

Keith Law went to a wedding. The DJ played “Sweet Caroline”….and paused for the fans guests to shout BAHM BAHM BAAAHM and SO GOOD! SO GOOD! SO GOOD! How odd.

River Ave Blues gulps and delivers the bad news: Jorge Posada’s shoulder is still not better. Will the Yanks have to bite the bullet and get a backup for their backup? Doug Mirabelli’s available… (DOUGIE’S GOING DEEP!)

Baseball Prospectus on just how insane Cliff Lee has been to start the season.

High Cheese notes that Tom Gorzelanny’s bobblehead is making an obscene gesture.

And finally, Sox and Dawgs has the latest crop of Red Sox charity wines. Last year, we had Schilling Schardonnay, Caberknuckle, and my personal favorite, Manny Being Merlot. I was hoping the Sox would branch out into beer and hard liquor (“Coco’s Crisp IPA: Packed with good hops” or “Varitek Vodka: Intangibly Smooth”) but no such luck. This year’s puns are Sauvignyoouuk (witty), Captain’s Cabernet (yawn), and Vintage Papi (super-yawn). I’m disappointed, quite frankly. What about the Papi Pinot I requested? The Matsu-sake?! Pedroia’s Petite Sirah? Buchholztraminer?!?

What else should I be reading? Email me!