Free coffee and baseball: This is a match made in heaven, from Sarah’s point of view. Two notes: 1. Jose Canseco is worried that he’ll get poisoned via free coffee. 2. Jonathan Papelbon is advertising free coffee (with purchase of either a flatbread sandwich or a pizza) at Dunkin’ Donuts, available the day after the Red Sox win. Sounds a bit complicated to me—and it’s cheap of DD to exclude their own employees. Not to mention that Paps looks like a cheeseball in this photo. Why didn’t they just go with a real post-game shot?

Speed: the Blue Jays are going to be swiping more bags this season. And speaking of speed, I enjoyed watching the A’s relievers throw over to first with Jason Varitek standing on the bag. Yes, let’s make sure the 35-year old catcher doesn’t steal.

Fans: It just goes to show you that the Dodgers really do have a special relationship with their fans, as LA hurler Brad Penny warmed up with a lucky fan yesterday. Across town, Angels owner Arte Moreno bought souvenirs for several fans. And it seems that Baltimore’s long-suffering faithful are finally abandoning their ballclub. Just don’t get mad when the Sox come to town in May and bring their hordes of free-spending fans with them, transforming Camden Yards into Fenway South. The O’s need the revenue.

No-hitters: Yesterday, ESPN.com carried a teaser for the Chicago-Detroit game saying the Dontrelle Willis was throwing a no-no through five innings. To me, that’s just false advertising. Sure, it’s technically accurate to say that D-Train ended up one-hitting the White Sox, but it would perhaps be more descriptive to say that Willis went five innings, while walking seven and striking out none. It was the least dominant no-no bid I’ve ever watched. An outing more worthy of ESPN’s hype would have been Jake Peavy’s two-hit complete game or Manny Parra’s legit seven-strikeout no-hit bid, carried through five innings.

Reds Rookies: On the heels of Johnny Cueto’s stunning debut Thursday, another Reds rookie pitcher impresses today. Edinson Volquez has pitched five innings so far, with seven K’s and one earned run. He’s scattered three hits and two walks.

Sleep: The Red Sox really do need it. Their odyssey from Florida to Japan to California to Toronto is starting to tell, and it’s most readily apparent on defense. Boston has already committed two errors halfway through today’s game. They had two errors yesterday, too, and have racked up a number of sloppy near-errors over the past few games. They have a day off tomorrow and open Fenway Park on Tuesday.

This is the latest in a series of posts in which UmpBump breaks down the cagey offseason moves and woeful offseason blunders for all 30 major-league teams

The Marlins only really made one move this offseason, but it was a huge one, shipping Dontrelle Willis AND Miguel Cabrera in the same deal to the Detroit Tigers for prospects Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Dallas Trahern, and Mike Rabelo.

The deal has been talked about for months as one of the best trades made in years, but of course everyone means from the Tigers’ perspective. From the Marlins’ perspective, this is an abominable trade, so bad you almost feel like Marlins fans should be able to sue the team for some sort of breach of fiduciary duties.

First of all, there is the overwhelming feeling you get that the Marlins would almost certainly have gotten far more in return if they had traded Willis and Cabrera in separate deals, most likely to two separate teams. Both were marquee names, both could have been expected to have a large market, and Miguel Cabrera is probably one of the 5 best players in the entire game right now. The only two words that could adequately describe the feeling around the baseball world when word came down that both players had been traded to a single team in the same deal was, “absolute shock”

Second of all, is the players the Marlins actually got in return. Centerfielder Cameron Maybin and lefty starting pitcher Andrew Miller were supposed to be the centerpieces of this deal, but both players are still extremely raw, and if the Marlins have any sense they will start them both at Double-A this year (note: it is unclear whether the Marlins have any sense). I mean, if these were dominant Triple-A players on the verge of major-league stardom, then that would be one thing, but there is a lot that players have left to learn if they are going to make the show from Double-A, so while Maybin and Miller have upside and projectability, they are as of yet nobody’s idea of “can’t miss.” Meanwhile, the other three pitchers are all C-grade prospects, and catcher Mike Rabelo is nobody’s idea of a prospect at all.

But thirdly, and this is where my own opinion comes in, above and beyond the general consensus that this was a bad deal by the Marlins, I can’t help thinking that what makes this deal so shameful and regrettable is that the Marlins actually had a pretty good shot to contend this year, with just a few moves.

What’s that, I hear you saying. Did he just say that the Marlins could have contended this season?

Well, yeah, actually. I’m sure the Marlins front office probably looked at their 71 wins last year and decided this team had no hope, and that they might as well shave an extra few million bucks off their payroll by dumping Willis and Cabrera. But I submit to you that if they had kept Willis and Cabrera, who are still relatively cheap, the Marlins would really only have been a few players away from being a serious menace in the NL East.

For one thing, the Marlins have a lineup stacked with young players making the major league minimum who are all still on the upswing side of their young careers. Second, the Marlins could have easily improved their defense dramatically, with a few moves. Last year, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Miguel Cabrera were woeful defensively at their respective positions. But if you simply moved Cabrera to first, Uggla to third, Ramirez to second, and found even an average defensive shortstop, you would suddenly have a vastly improved infield defense.

Thirdly, the only real hole in the Marlins’ lineup last season was in centerfield, which was exactly the position with the most free agents to choose from this offseason. The Marlins may not have been too inclined to jump into the Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand sweepstakes, but with only a $30 million payroll last year, they easily could have afforded to go after Mike Cameron. And an even better idea would have been to make a trade for Boston’s Coco Crisp.

With a powerful young lineup headlined by Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, and Jeremy Hermida, the Marlins would have put up a ton of runs, and a promising young rotation led by Willis (who was bound to improve on a down year) would have benefited greatly from an improved defense. Meanwhile, the Marlins bullpen is actually a secret source of strength: now that last years disasters Armando Benitez and Jorge Julio have been shown the way to the exit, the pen can be fully turned over to respectable closer Kevin Gregg (3.54, 32 SV), and extremely promising young arms Lee Gardiner (1.94 ERA last year), Henry Owens (1.96), Matt Lindstrom (3.04), Justin Miller (3.65), Renyel Pinto (3.68), and closer-in-training Taylor Tankersley (3.99).

So by my count, all the Marlins would have needed to do this offseason to field a very competitive team this offseason would have been to acquire a centerfielder, a cheap defensive-oriented shortstop (such as Cesar Izturis or Adam Everett), and a reliable 5th starter who could eat innings while Rick Vanden Hurk develops a bit more polish and Anibel Sanchez heals from surgery (Livan Hernandez?). Also, they should have resigned starting catcher Miguel Olivo, who doesn’t walk enough, but is strong defensively and has some good power, and would have only cost a few million at most (he wound up signing a one-year deal with the Royals). That is literally all they would have needed, as the lineup, rotation and bulpen would have been totally set everywhere else, and set with young players who are actually good, and pretty much all have upside left.

Of course, enacting this plan would have required that the Marlins actually care about winning anymore, rather than just whining about having no stadium deal. But clearly, winning is not a priority.

Offseason Grade: F

Additions: Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Dallas McPherson, Mike Rabelo, Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin

Losses: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Olivo, Armando Benitez, Aaron Boone, Byung-Hyun Kim, Joe Borchard, Wes Obermueller

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

SS Hanley Ramirez - .332/.386/.562, 51 SB
2B Dan Uggla - .245/.326/.479, 31 HR
RF Jeremy Hermida - .296/.369/.501, 18 HR
LF Josh Willingham - .265/.364/.463, 21 HR
1B Mike Jacobs - .265/.317/.458, 17 HR
3B Dallas McPherson - .261/.298/.478
CF Alfredo Amezaga - .263/.324/.358
C Mike Rabelo - .256/.300/.357

LHP Scott Olson - 10-14, 5.81
RHP Sergio Mitre - 5-8, 4.65
RHP Ricky Nolasco - 1-2, 5.48
LHP Andrew Miller - 5-5, 5.63
LHP Mark Hendrickson - 4-8, 5.21

CL Kevin Gregg - 3.54, 32 SV

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

There are certain words in the English language that make baseball GMs absolutely giddy. “Young”. “Proven”. “Lefty”. “20-Game Winner”. And there are only two names that can be accurately associated with all these terms – Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis. One of them appears to be available. But it’s the guy I think even GMs DON’T want.

The Florida Marlins have seemingly placed a “For Sale” sign around Dontrelle Willis’ neck, and if the press is correct (let’s face it – when are they EVER wrong?), there will be no lack of interested parties. Willis will be the fix-what-ails-ya player as the trading deadline looms and dozens and dozens of articles will be written by lazy journalists from now until then that will claim that “all the (fill in your team name here) need is Dontrelle Willis”. It’s mindless, it seems obvious, and he’s a name that they recognize (so hey, he must be good). So that MUST be the solution even though your leadoff hitter has a .310 OBP.

Look, I understand the fascination with Dontrelle. He’s a former Rookie of the Year, 2-time All Star, came in 2^nd in the Cy Young voting in 2005, and he’s 25 years old. But this isn’t the Dontrelle Willis of 2005. The past two seasons, he’s been nothing more than an average starting pitcher.

Two seasons ago, Willis looked to be the future of pitching in the Major Leagues. He had a Clemens-esque 2.63 ERA to go along with 22 wins and he held his opponents to a .292 OBP. Plus, he had a great nickname – “D-Train”. But he hasn’t come remotely close to posting those numbers since.

As the chart above shows, Dontrelle’s key statistics have all gone south since the start of the 2006 season. The strikeouts have decreased slightly, the walks have nearly doubled, he’s suddenly become hittable and is allowing nearly three times the homeruns. So why would anyone want him at the price that the Marlins would be certain to request? And if it’s this clear to me, wouldn’t you think that GMs know this too?

Perhaps you think that I’m giving GMs far too much credit. But to me, Dontrelle Willis is only a ½ season away from being labeled a “reclamation project”. It seems that the Marlins waited too long to put him on the block and now won’t get nearly as much value as he would have just a year ago. Add it all up, and I just don’t see the guy going anywhere.