Before the season started, Peter Gammons predicted the Mets were the team to beat in the NL East, “because the Mets may have the best four-man rotation in the National League East or perhaps the entire National League, period.”

Here was his reasoning:

Johan Santana is arguably the best pitcher in the game. Pedro Martinez has had a very encouraging spring, with Saturday’s outing against Washington more proof of his recovery. Pedro is not going to ever throw 95 mph again, but he is looser than he has been in years (he still doesn’t have to ice his shoulder), his command of four pitches is outstanding and he is so intelligent that he doesn’t have to throw harder than 88 mph to win. Oliver Perez is up in the 93-mph range with a very good slider.

Perhaps the most encouraging part of the mix for the Mets this spring has been John Maine. Two years ago, GM Omar Minaya, who stole Maine in the Kris Benson trade, predicted Maine would be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Two years of working with pitching coach Rick Peterson and Maine may be just that. The Indians faced him Wednesday night and thought he was the best pitcher they’ve seen all spring. Where he was essentially a one-pitch, 92-94 mph fastball pitcher, Maine has been throwing 94-96 this spring with an improving slider and changeup to go along with his ability to command the fastball on all four quadrants of the plate.

Until they know what’s going to happen with El Duque, who for now is still throwing no higher than the low 80s, the fifth spot is in flux. But a fifth starter is usually a work in progress, and remember this — without Santana or Pedro and with Maine a work in progress — the Mets starters last year led the NL in wins and quality starts. So with the Phillies pitching in some question and John Smoltz and Mike Hampton set to leave Florida with slight physical questions, there seems little doubt that the Mets will head north with the premier starting pitching in the National League East.

That evaluation seemed entirely reasonable at the time, but now one has to wonder what Gammons would have predicted if somebody told him that Martinez would alternate this season between injured and awful, that Maine would take a major step backwards and sit out the last month of the season with a bone spur, that El Duque would miss the entire season, and that Oliver Perez would start slowly.

I’m guessing he’d probably give the Mets zero chance of winning the division.

Just goes to show that even the best made plans sometimes go awry — and sometimes things still work out. Thank god for Mike Pelfrey, eh New York?

The Mets got some good news about El Duque today.

From Newsday:

Orlando Hernandez will not have surgery to remove the bunion on his right foot. Instead, Hernandez explained that the upcoming operation is for the tendon of his second toe on that same foot. El Duque had an identical procedure on the other foot back in 2001 - he showed the scar yesterday - and the rehab process is only three months as compared to a year for bunion surgery.

Seriously? It takes one year to recover from bunion surgery? That must be a serious bunion!

I always thought a bunion was just a glorified blister, but I guess it can be a lot worse.

Free agents are signing! Free Agents are signing! And they’re signing with the Cubs, of all teams.

First Kerry Wood re-upped with the Cubies (isn’t re-upped one of the all-time great words?). Then Aramis Ramirez joined him. Now Mark DeRosa has signed on with the world’s most depressing franchise.

But the Cubs aren’t the only ones making noise in the free agent market. The Mets have re-signed El Duque to a two year deal and the Phillies have re-signed Jamie Moyer. 

Then there’s the Red Sox who, as Nick mentioned, are chasing Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. What a fun team that would make, eh? Wouldn’t you just relish the chance to chear for a team with Manny being Manny (skipping games), J.D. being J.D. (getting hurt and asking for more money) and Julio being Julio (hitting his wife and bitching about playing time)? Oh and don’t forget about Josh being Josh (getting blisters and picking fights) and Keith being Keith (wishing he were hunting instead of pitching).