Remember when the Brewers’ biggest problem was they had too much starting pitching? CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Seth McClung and Manny Parra — so many arms and only five rotation spots!

Milwaukee won’t have that problem this year.

The Brewers have shown little interest in brining back the oft-injured Sheets, who is a free agent. And Sabathia is being pursued by the deep-pocketed Yankees. And the Angels. And maybe the Red Sox and Giants.

Milwaukee could simply go with a rotation of Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, McClung and Parra, and that wouldn’t be the end of the world. But would it be enough to get the Brewers back to the playoffs? Doubtful. Milwaukee just barely made the postseason in 2008, and that was with Sabathia doing his best Sandy Koufax impression. Without Sabathia it stands to reason that the Brewers will take a step back. And they can’t afford to take a step back. Not when they play in a division with the Cubs.

Obviously, the Brewers need a starting pitcher to offset the likely losses of Sabathia and Sheets. Who’s a good fit? Randy Wolf? Oliver Perez?

No, you don’t replace Sabathia. You can’t replace Sabathia.

And therein lies the dilemma. Should the Brewers re-sign Sabathia, they’d be committing roughly a quarter of the team’s payroll to just one player. If Sabathia got hurt, that’d be it for Milwaukee. They’d sink or swim with the big-boned ace.

That’s a gamble. But a wise man once said, “[T]he house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes. The house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet and you bet big, then you take the house.”

Does Sabathia represent a perfect hand? I don’t know. Nobody does. Nobody knows if a guy of his girth can continue to pitch at an elite level. But if I were the Brewers I’d pay to find out. Because, as another wise man once said, “You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle. But you can’t win much either.”*

*See what I did there? I mixed my gambling movie quotes. I started with a quote from “Ocean’s 11″ and ended with a quote from “Rounders.” Mixing movie quotes is a highwire act. A lesser blogger might have bungled it. But you’re in good hands here.

Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Brewers could use a new back-end reliever. For much of 2008 Eric Gagne closed games for Milwaukee. After that project failed, the Brewers turned to Soloman Torres. Now Gagne is gone and Torres is retired. Maybe Brian Fuentes would be a good fit? Or Brandon Lyon? Or Milwaukee could trade Mike Cameron for a power bullpen arm, and move Rickie Weeks to center field.

Finally, I feel obliged to mention that Corey Hart was terrible in 2008 and if he can’t improve on last season’s .300 OBP then the Brewers are totally screwed. Rickie Weeks, meanwhile, had his usual decent OBP and crappy batting average. If the Brewers can find a way to combine Weeks and Hart into one super player (Rickie Hart? Corey Weeks?), then they’ll be in business.

-What They Need Index-

So the X-Files movie comes out on Friday, and I can’t help but wonder: will Mulder and Scully be looking for aliens, or that even more elusive creature…..the Last Eric Gagne Fan?

Here’s an item that should especially interest those of you who are now just waiting for next year: a mid-season update of baseball’s top 100 prospects. And if that’s not enough, here’s a look at the Triple A leaderboards.

Melky Cabrera waves to the fans mid-play and promptly commits an error. Just Melky being Melky?

I only wish I knew where Wendell “Send ‘em in” Kim would’ve ranked on this list.

A writerly look at Big Papi’s rehab stint in the minors.

A useful primer on the incredibly tangled web that is free agent compensation; good stuff to think about as the trade deadline approaches. Here’s the list of players who’ll be free agents after the season.

And finally, a Metro column in which I apparently begin to hallucinate.

What else should I be reading? Send me tips.

This is one of a series of posts in which we grade each team’s wily hot stove maneuvers and tragic offseason blunders.

As we know, “Milwaukee” is Algonquin for “the good land.” And Milwaukee does indeed look like the good land in 2008. Last year they ended up leading the NL Central for all but 29 games, only to falter in August and cede first place to the powerhouse 85-win Cubs. But this year will be different. Why?

First, there’s the hotly anticipated full season of Dreamy-Eyed Ryan Braun. Then there’s the fact that the Brewers finally took my advice (preen, preen) and moved the defensively challenged Braun out of the left side of the infield and into the left side of the outfield. Then there’s the fact that he’s just 24.

Then, there’s Prince Fielder, who, while the baseball world’s attention was focused on the dreamy eyes of the aforementioned Dreamy-Eyed One, hit 50 homers last year. He’s still only 23.

And then there’s Rickie Weeks, who spent most of last year struggling as he recovered from wrist surgery he’d had in August 2006—but who went on a tear the last two months of the season, and who’ll be leading off on Opening Day. He poised for a breakout season at age 25.

Hopes are also high for 21-year old starter Yovani Gallardo, who did quite well in his debut last year. Gallardo has been lights-out at every level, and should be ready to take on a full workload this year, despite his tender age. He’s got a fastball in the mid-90s and a big curveball in the 70s, and in September of last year, he put together a 21-inning scoreless streak with the big league club. He’ll likely be joined in the starting rotation by another young hurler, Carlos Villanueva, giving Milwaukee’s rotation a youthful new look.

Finally, 30-year old Ben Sheets is healthy and ready to have a good year, after a few seasons sprinkled with injuries. He’s in the last year of his contract and would no doubt like to prove himself worthy of big money; if he stays healthy, that shouldn’t be a problem. Over the past three years, he hasn’t pitched more than 156.2 innings per season, but his K/BB rate and his ERA have been decent over that span. Plus, the last time he was in a contract year, he pitched 237 innings with a 2.70 ERA and a ridiculous 237 strikeouts. If he can get even a little close to those numbers again, the Brewers will have a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

Yet despite all the good news, there are still some lingering concerns and question marks heading into camp.

The Brewers landed Gabe Kapler this winter, who is making a return to the majors after a year spent managing Boston’s Single-A club, the Greenville (SC) Drive. This upped the team’s already high dreaminess quotient considerably, and, more to the point, gives them the extra outfielder they need. Their preferred starting CF, Gold Glover Mike Cameron, starting the year serving a 25-game suspension after testing positive for a banned stimulant after last season, his second failed test. In his absence, centerfield will be staffed by Tony Gwynn Jr and Gabe Gross. Corey Hart platooned in right field last year, but Brewers brass seems to be going into Spring Training thinking of him as an everyday guy. Once Cameron returns, however, the Brewers will have six outfielders. Someone will have to go to the minors, or become trade bait.

But the outfield is just one issue still facing the Brewers. The bigger question is the bullpen. New closer Eric Gagne showed up in the Mitchell Report, and has yet to publicly comment on it; but, more alarmingly from the point of view of those paying him $10 million, he has yet to show he can still be an effective pitcher. With the Rangers last year, Gagne seemed to hold is own; but with the Red Sox, he fell so completely apart that he almost single-handedly cost them the division title. If Gagne goes back on the roids miraculously improves, Milwaukee’s expensive gamble will look canny. If he stays true to form, however, they’ll have made a very expensive, all-too-predictable mistake.

GM Doug Melvin also traded for reliever Guillermo Mota this offseason, who served a 50-game ban last year for failing a steroid test, and Salomon Torres, as well as signing free agents Randy Choate and David Riske (which has always seemed, to me, like a terrible last name for relief pitcher). None of those guys is going to cause dancing in the streets of Milwaukee. Unfortunately, try though Melvin might, there’s just no way to replace a set-up-man and closer combo of Scott Linebrink and Francisco Cordero—and no way for the Brewers to keep both of them. But despite the criticism of Linebrink’s four-year deal with the White Sox, $4.75 million a year isn’t that much for a set-up man. I admit that four years is a long time to commit to a reliever, and that the fact that Linebrink has a no-trade clause is preposterous, but despite talk of his “decline,” he’s still only 31. Couldn’t the Brewers have scooped him up for a lesser deal before other teams were allowed to negotiate with him? It’s not like they’re a tiny market team; their payroll is just shy of $80 million a year.

Looking ahead, their best prospect is another Fielder/Braun type named Matt LaPorta, another masher with no defense. But with Fielder at first base and Braun now in left field, the Brewers are running out of places to stash these guys. If I were the Brewers, once LaPorta has more professional games under his belt, I might find an AL team looking for a young DH and try to make a trade.

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

1. 2B Rickie Weeks – 16 HR, .374 OBP

2. SS J.J. Hardy – 26 HR, 30 2B, .277 AVG

3. 1B Prince Fielder – 50 HR, 1.013 OPS

4. LF Ryan Braun – 34 HR, .370 OBP

5. RF Corey Hart – 24 HR, .298 AVG

6. 3B Bill Hall – 14 HR, 35 2B, .254 AVG

7. CF Mike Cameron – 21 HR, .328 OBP

8. C Jason Kendall – .301 OBP, .309 SLG

SP1 Ben Sheets, 3.82 ERA, .253 BAA

SP2 Yovani Gallardo, 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

SP3 Carlos Villanueva, 3.95 ERA, .236 BAA

SP4 Jeff Suppan, 4.62 ERA

SP5 Dave Bush/Chris Capuano/Claudio Vargas/Manny Parra

CL: Eric Gagne

Acquisitions: Mike Cameron (CF), Eric Gagne (RP), Jason Kendall (C), David Riske (RP), Guillermo Mota (RP), Salomon Torres (RP), Gabe Kapler (OF)

Losses: Francisco Cordero (RP), Geoff Jenkins (LF), Scott Linebrink (RP), Matt Wise (RP), Johnny Estrada, (C).

Grade:B+

The Brewers will score runs with their speed and power, and their starting rotation looks solid. They’ll have several guys competing for the starters’ slots in camp, including lefty prospect Manny Parra. Shifting Braun to left field and Bill Hall to third base, and acquiring Cameron, should give the Brewers’ defense a needed boost. There’s been some disagreement about the deal for catcher Jason Kendall, but he moved back towards his career averages in the second half of last season. I see upside there. However, I have to dock the Brewers some points for gambling money they can’t afford to waste on Gagne. I suppose someone was going to sign him, but I can’t believe he commanded 10 million dollars. Were they out-bidding some other team?? Plus, I can’t help but notice that not only have they signed three guys with PED problems, but their farm system is no cleaner: of their top five prospects, one’s been slapped with a 50-game suspension for using PEDs, and another has been caught smoking pot multiple times. And then there’s the way they picked up Manager Ned Yost’s contract option, but forgot to announce it. Despite their decent offseason, it just feels like the Brewers don’t quite have their house in order.

But the bottom line is that the Brewers are a young club that, last year, broke a 15-year streak of sub-.500 seasons, broke a franchise home run record, and broke the Brewers’ attendance record. They’ve got solid pitching and great offensive ability. Their greatest weakness last year was their horrible defense, which they have addressed this winter about as well as could be hoped. This year, if a few of their pitching gambles work out, they could definitely make the playoffs.

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

It wasn’t too long ago that Eric Gagne was baseball’s premier closer and one of the few relievers to ever win a Cy Young. Then came two years in which he battled injuries, and a pretty good (but not stellar) start to the 2007 season in Texas. Yet in July, enough teams felt that he had enough left to vie for his services at the trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox bested their perpetual competitors in all major acquisitions, the New York Yankees, to win Gagne’s services for the remainder of the season, sending starting pitcher Kason Gabbard, minor league outfielder Dave Murphy, and highly regarded prospect Engel Beltre to Texas in exchange for Gagne. Boston also had to buy out the performance incentives in Gagne’s contract, since they wanted him to be their set-up man, not their closer. At the time, the deal was considered by most (though not all) to be a major coup.

How quickly things change. For reasons even he couldn’t understand, Gagne imploded in Boston. Red Sox fans quickly turned on him, moving from shock to hate to please-kill-him-it-would-be-more-merciful in record time. Time after time after time, Red Sox manager Terry Francona gave Gagne the chance to redeem himself. Time after time after time, Gagne failed. In fact, Eric Gagne was solely responsible for knocking several games off of Boston’s division lead over New York, almost single-handedly fostering an unnecessarily dramatic pennant race at the end of a season in which the Red Sox had commandeered the top spot in the AL East since mid-April.

Now the Red Sox have offered Gagne arbitration. Gagne may accept, but is expected to decline (not least because his agent is Scott Boras, and when do Scott Boras clients ever accept arbitration?). According to Jon Heyman (via mlbtraderumors, which I know all of you are refreshing every 10 minutes, don’t pretend you aren’t!):

The Brewers and Astros are among teams bidding for Eric Gagne, who has to be a closer wherever he goes (he was almost perfect as a closer in Texas last year, then perfectly awful as a setup man in Boston). Perhaps he could return to Texas, too, where he thrived.

And the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers have already contacted Gagne about returning to Texas, where he certainly had more success than in Boston. Last year, they gave him a one-year, $6 million deal with $5 million in performance bonuses.

So I ask you: if you were a baseball GM, would you take a chance on Eric Gagne? Do you think he struggled in Boston just because he wasn’t in the closer role? And if so, how much would you pay him?

What is going on with Eric Gagne? My one-woman quest to find out.

Despite arriving in Boston to much fanfare, Eric Gagne has nearly been run out of town by apoplectic fans who have seen him almost singlehandedly cut the team’s division lead over the Yankees. But why? Why does this venerable closer suddenly suck? He didn’t have a stellar start to the season in Texas, but he was solid. So why the sudden suckage north of the border? Is it a mental block because his role is different? Could it be a physical ailment? He’s been injured so often these past couple of years. Is he 31 and past his prime?Is he just tired? After all, his last full season of work was in 2004.

Multiple times now, Gagne has gotten two outs but been unable to get the third. Does he have a third-out problem? Or is it a first-pitch strike problem? He struggled to throw first pitches for strikes last night, but many times he has actually been ahead of the batter when he’s ended up getting rocked. Is he working too slowly? He seems to plod agonizingly around the mound, as if daring the networks to go to commercial between his pitches. The guy sitting next to me at the ballgame last night suggested that Gagne was rattled by the Fenway crowds; but though Gagne looked visibly confused last night when the Fenway Faithful gave a furious roar of joy for no immediately obvious reason (the manual scoreboard had just been updated to show Tampa Bay pulling ahead of New York), I don’t think the closer temperament requires library-type silence to get the job done.

So why, Eric? Why?!

I’ve narrowed it down to five possibilities:

Read the rest of this entry »

Yes, oooof. As in, a solid punch to the gut. Which is how Theo Epstein, Terry Francona, and all the Sox fans and media prognosticators who lauded the Eric Gagne trade are feeling, or ought to be feeling, right now.

After last night’s game, Eric Gagne’s ERA with the Boston Red Sox now stands at 9.00.

And that’s not the kind of 9.00 ERA you get when you first join a team and give up 1 run in your first inning of work or something. Nay, it’s the kind of 9.00 ERA you get when you give up 14 runs in 14 innings of work.

When the trade first when down, I wrote a post in this space wherein I denegrated the deal, arguing that at most, the Sox could expect to get about 20 innings out of Gagne the rest of the season. Well, a month and a half down the road, Gagne is right on pace for 20 IP, but even I didn’t imagine he would be right on pace for 20 runs allowed.

My argument at the time was that I thought Kason Gabbard had too much upside to give up for only 20 innings of relief work plus a few innings in the playoffs, but lets face it: in hindsight even trading a bucket of used baseballs for Gagne would have been too high a price, given Gagne’s performance, let alone a major-league-ready starting pitcher and two other prospects.

I mean seriously, how high does a pitcher’s ERA have to go before a manager says “This man is no longer my set-up man. At best, he is my mop-up man/long reliever”? Apparently, that point is somewhere beyond one earned run per inning pitched for Terry Francona.

Oddly, the AP article on last nights game began with the sentence “Once the best closer in baseball, Red Sox reliever Eric Gange as suddenly become shaky.” As if this shakiness were some crazy new development. But Gagne has been either shaky or injured for going on 3 years now, so apparently the AP and I have different definitions of the word “suddenly.”

Although I do feel compelled to make one tiny point in defense of Gagne’s otherwise atrocious performance thus far with the Sox. To wit: the route J.D. Drew took to Russ Adams’ back breaking double which wound up just clearing his glove was one of the worst I’ve seen in a while. It was like he’d never played right field before. These ex-Dodgers are really killing the Red Sox, at least insofar as a team with the best record in baseball can be said to be getting “killed.”

Boston is losing today’s game against Tampa Bay as I write. Nevertheless, It was a special night in the Fens last night. An evening of hope for a region of panicked Red Sox fans.

Jon Lester took the mound in Fenway Park for the first time since being diagnosed with cancer. That in itself was an achievement. But it’s what he did next that electrified the old ballpark.

A full seven innings pitched on an economical 97 pitches (62 of which were strikes). Four strikeouts. One walk. Only two hits and just one run.

He used his fastball, his curveball, and his changeup and consistently hit his spots all night, alternately fooling hitters and freezing them. He strode in from the bullpen and tipped his cap to the standing, cheering Fenway Faithful and then, perhaps fighting down some nerves, walked the first hitter he faced. Then something shifted. For the rest of his time out there, it was clear he was in charge, as he retired 9 straight batters and then, after the Devil Rays run scored their one run, another 12 straight.

Unfortunately for Lester, he was up against Scott Kazmir, the Devil Ray’s one legit starter. Kazmir has always enjoyed success against Boston despite his tender years, and last night was no exception. On a strict pitch count, he left the game after six innings and 95 pitches, having struck out eight and allowed no runs, despite giving up four hits and walking three. The Red Sox were pleased to see the arrival of Tampa Bay’s bullpen (aka “batting practice pitchers”) but didn’t make any headway until the bottom of the ninth.

Manny Ramirez started the frame by watching strike three sail in—it looked low, and he argued, but he was out. Then Mike Lowell—himself a cancer survivor—launched a bomb over the Green Monster, over the Monster seats, over everything. Aerial footage from the Hood blimp showed it coming crashing down on Landsdowne Street, where ball scavengers tussled over it. Inside the confines, the crowd erupted. At home on the couch, I rejoiced, then worried—the last thing we needed right now was an extended, extra-innings slog that would sap our bullpen before today’s day game and what’s sure to be a tough, four-games-in-three-days battle with the Angels this weekend. We had to end this thing now.

Varitek follows with a ground-rule double. Youkilis then makes the second out of the inning when he—like Ramirez—strkes out looking. As an enraged Youkilis storms back to the dugout, looking more like a wrathful Russian Tsar than ever, Coco Crisp steps in to the batter’s box. Crisp has had some great defensive plays this season—and added another with a running basket catch last night—but has never had in Boston the kind of offensive output he had in Cleveland. His fingers fluttering over the handle of the bat, he waits.

Ball one. Ball two. Crisp takes a pitch for a strike. Ball three. Then another called strike. The count now full, Crisp swings at the next pitch and fouls it off. Crisp attacks the next offering, looping the ball into shallow right! Jason Varitek motors around third, but the Captain’s not known for his speed. His teeth gritted, he chuggs home as the throw comes in. The throw is short! Varitek slides home! Red Sox win!

A few thoughts.

1. Pitch counts are stupid. The Devil Rays are trying to “save Kazmir’s bullets” but costing him wins. Not to mention all the wins the team costs him by just sucking, period. I feel bad for Scott Kazmir.

2. This could be the moment the Sox get hot again. With the Yankees utterly crushed by the Orioles last night (12-0), Boston brought its lead in the division back to 5 games. I would love nothing more than for this game to galvanize the Red Sox and send them screaming into their upcoming series with New York.

3. Lester has disappointed, frankly, with his peripherals so far, despite being a highly touted prospect at the start of last season. Last year with the Sox, his 7-2 record and impressive string of five straight wins (making him the first rookie lefty in franchise history to win his first five decisions) was undermined by his 4.76 ERA and 43 walks in 81.1 innings. And as you might expect from someone who walked so many batters, but also struck out 60, he threw a lot of pitches and didn’t get very deep into games. This season, his record is 1-0 with a 5.14 ERA in 5 starts. He’s shown flashes of real brilliance, but has had trouble staying consistent. If he can get in a groove and go out there every five days and start stringing some innings together, this could finally be the season Jon Lester breaks out. Looking ahead, I would love to see the 6′4″ lefty helping to anchor the rotation in 2008—especially if Curt Schilling will be elsewhere. Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Wakefield, and Buchholz? Rowr.

3. Boston’s bullpen looked good last night. After Manny Delcarmen got two outs in the eighth, Terry Francona called on veteran Mike Timlin to finish the job. Part of the reason the Sox wanted Eric Gagne was because it looked like Timlin’s days as a lights-out setup man were done. Timlin’s health hasn’t been great this season, giving him a rocky start. But lately, when he can pitch, he has pitched, giving up just two earned runs in all of July and August. Last night he came in and struck out B.J. Upton on four pitches–without throwing a ball. Not bad for a guy who only needs 7 more appearances to reach the 1,000 mark. If this is Timlin having a last gasp of glory, his timing couldn’t be better.

4. Eric Gagne was, well, Gagne-esque. After unleashing an expletive-filled tirade against himself on Sunday (when he blew his second save opportunity of the weekend), he came out last night and dominated. Maybe it’s because he was pitching the ninth inning. Maybe it’s because Friendly Fenway greeted him with a chorus of boos and it ignited within his breast a fierce desire to prove them wrong. Maybe it’s because he knew, deep inside somewhere, that Sarah Green had castigated him in an as-yet-unpublished column and he wanted to make her look stupid. Whatever the reason, I don’t care. He gave up a scary looking double—it one-hopped the low wall in right before J.D. Drew made a sweet one-handed grab, but was just feet away from being a game-tying homer— but also struck out the side. He threw heat, he threw changeups, and the Devil Rays looked like the overmatched scamps they are. It was hot.

5. Nevertheless, runners left on base continue to plague the Sox. Boston stranded 7 last night. Manny has grounded into 19 double plays–only six players in all of the major leagues have more. And David Ortiz still isn’t hitting like David Ortiz. Worry, worry. Fret, fret. This season’s going to go right down to the wire.

This week’s Metro column, in which I parse the Gagne-to-Boston deal for hidden significance. Did Boston or Texas come out on top? I report. You decide.

For what it’s worth, the more I think about it, the more I’m impressed with the Rangers’ handling of this trade deadline. Some of the pieces they had acquired earlier just made no sense for them to have—and they had the stones to admit it (unlike certain other GMs, who insist on retaining the services of, say, Julio Lugo). They tried their best to move Sammy Sosa, and when they couldn’t find any takers they had the hard conversation with the former superstar and told him he’d have to sit out more games to give the younguns a chance to play. They dumped Kenny “He’s Still Around?” Lofton for decent minor league catcher Max Ramirez. And they moved two of their biggest stars–Gagne and Mark Teixeira–before they walked, leaving the Rangers with nothing. What exactly Texas got for Gagne is the subject of my column, so I won’t go into it again here. But I’m still marveling at what they got for Teixeira–though the Braves seem very happy with the deal, as their new first baseman has already has three homers and eight RBI in his first six games with Atlanta.

Nonetheless, the Rangers did a great job of getting value out of Teixeira after he turned down their contract offer. For him (and Ron Mahay, don’t forget), they got: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a six-foot-four switch hitting catcher/first baseman; Elvis Andrus, a shortstop who, at just 18, is rumored to have more tools than Home Depot and has already been compared to Derek Jeter; Matt Harrison, a lefty starting pitcher who likes to throw hard and—even better—throw strikes; 19-year old Neftali Feliz, who admittedly has yet to make it to the minors, but still struck out 70 batters in 51 and a third innings of work. and another left-handed pitcher, Beau Jones, who hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty expectations the Braves threw at him, but has managed to keep his ERA under 3 in 48 and 2/3 innings of relief work in Single A while notching a strikeout about once per inning.

Not too shabby. And if Engel Beltre is all he’s cracked up to be, they really cleaned up on prospects…but now I’m giving away the column.