Before the 2007 season began, it wasn’t all that difficult to see that the Indians would be a team that needed to be reckoned with. Despite an unimpressive 78-win season the year before, this was the team whose run differential was a plus 88. They were better than their record had shown. And they went on to win 96 games without any major additions in 2007.

Flash forward to November 2008. The Indians had once again underplayed their run differential to the tune of a .500 record despite scoring 805 runs against 761 runs given up. But things are different. C.C. Sabathia is gone. Travis Hafner looks like a shell of his former self and Victor Martinez’ power disappeared overnight. On the positive end of the spectrum, Grady Sizemore cemented himself as a topflight player and Kelly Shoppach emerged as an offensive threat that made Victor Martinez’s sudden decline easier to swallow. Shin-Soo Choo was no longer just a fun name to recite, but a solid big leaguer who still had notable upside. Not to mention the fact that Cliff Lee surprised everyone and got himself a Cy Young award. With these players, the talent gap between the old guard and the new in Cleveland is not vast at all.

However, they do have areas that require help. For one, it’s actually rather amazing that the Indians scored as many runs as they did with so little production coming from the conventional power positions. The Indians had Ryan Garko and Casey Blake (before he went to LA) at first and third, with Ben Francisco and Franklin Gutierrez in left and right, plus Hafner DHing. Upgrading these positions offensively would not be that difficult under ordinary circumstances. But if you take a look at the first base options on the free agent market, the names do not inspire much confidence aside from Mark Teixeira — and the third basemen are worse. With Pronk and his contract entrenched at the DH spot, signing players not named Teixeira would mean a defensive downgrade that may not be worth the offensive upgrade and the financial commitment that would go with it.

And herein lies the problem with having a DH who struggled as badly as Hafner did in 2008. This year’s free agent market is full of all-bat-no-glove type players whose value would be maximized by only utilizing them for offensive purposes – Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Frank Thomas, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, etc. With his contract (guaranteed $51.75MM over the next four years), a team like the Indians, whose payroll hasn’t hit $80MM per year since 2001 (and is often well below that mark) do not have much choice but to keep giving Pronk a shot. Yes, he was injured for much of 2008 and certainly, his poor performance can partly be attributed to it. But his 2007 season wasn’t very good either and players like Hafner age quickly. Long story short, I don’t think we’ll ever see him perform at his previous levels ever again. Only a repeat of his 2007 campaign would be a realistic goal.

Moving on to other topics, there’s been talk of moving Jhonny Peralta to third base which doesn’t sound like such a bad idea. But this would obviously depend on who would replace him at short. And Peralta’s bat profiles as average at the hot corner and doesn’t do anything to improve their lineup power. Unless the Tribe shell out the money to bring in Rafael Furcal, it’s probably best to keep Peralta at short for the time being.

On the pitching side, players who have as big a statistical leap as Cliff Lee had last season tend to come back down to earth – not that his “earth” is all that bad. As long as his low walk total wasn’t a total fluke, Lee should remain a very good player. And to counteract this drop, Fausto Carmona can be expected to be better. No one had foreseen Carmona’s performance in 2007. By the same token, no one foresaw such a poor follow-up year. The real Fausto Carmona should be somewhere in the middle, which still makes him an above-average pitcher. The Tribe can also expect the return of Jake Westbrook from Tommy John surgery sometime in the summer and he should be a positive addition to the rotation. In the meantime, rookie Scott Lewis (who made his debut in September) should get the chance to earn a full time spot along with fellow young arms Aaron Laffey, Anthony Reyes, and Jeremy Sowers.

Their bullpen could use some help as well. Currently, their best relievers are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis. In addition, top prospect Adam Miller is expected to be on an innings-limit making him a reliever for most if not all of 2009. And while he had a terrible season, Rafael Betancourt is a better pitcher than his 2008 numbers indicate. But Perez is the only lefty of the bunch so they could use one more.

But their primary focus should really be to boost the offensive production coming from their corner positions. Ben Francisco, Ryan Gutierrez and Ryan Garko are probably not going to cut it if the Indians want to overtake the White Sox for the division crown. Giving Choo more at-bats would probably be a cheap and worthwhile option. I would also argue that Kelly Shoppach’s value is never going to be higher than it is right now and ought to be shipped out to one of the many teams who’d love an offensive upgrade at the catcher spot in exchange for a viable third baseman (Red Sox perhaps?).

All in all, I like the Indians’ chances in 2009. But much of it is going to rest upon the bats of Hafner and Victor Martinez. If their 2008 season wasn’t a fluke, then much of what they accomplish this offseason will most likely be moot.

- What They Need Index -

This year, the Cy Young debate is hardly a debate at all. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Jake Peavy will take home the hardware for the NL, while C.C. Sabathia will be the AL pitcher clearing off his mantel. I suppose I can agree with that. Thus, this post will be dedicated to acknowledging this year’s also-rans.

In the NL, Peavy’s 19-6 record, 223.1 IP, 240 K’s, and 2.54 ERA are hot indeed. But Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks made the same number of starts (34) and pitched more innings (236.1) leading to a few more decisions (18-10). Of course, his ERA is higher (3.01) and his strikeouts were fewer (194). I feel I also ought to mention Brad Penny of the Dodgers and John Smoltz of the Braves. Neither was good enough to be the NL Cy this year, of course, but they still put up good numbers. In fact, their numbers were eerily similar to one another’s. Except, of course, for Smoltz’s better strikeout rate. And we throw a tiny scrap in the direction of Aaron Harang of Cincinnati, for being the Chien-Ming Wang of the NL. Only, because he doesn’t pitch for the Yankees, his name hasn’t been bandied about at all. I’m sure he feels, if not harangued (ha) then at least a bit forlorn.

In the AL, Cleveland’s Sabathia has been a beast. 241 innings pitched! 34 starts! 209 strikeouts! Only 37 walks! And his 3.21 ERA ain’t too shabby either. Plus, I’m sure Cleveland is very happy with the 19-7 record. And he seems determined to single-handedly revive the lost art of the complete game. Of course, he wasn’t exactly masterful against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, but he was good enough to get by. But our sympathies should really extend to Fausto Carmona. If he hadn’t been so overshadowed by the No. 1 starter on his own team, we might be talking about him for the Cy. His ERA is an even better 3.06, and though he pitched fewer innings (215 in 32 starts) and didn’t strike out nearly as many (137) or walk so few (61), his record is nearly identical at 19-8. Then there’s Josh Beckett of the Red Sox, the only 20-game winner during the regular season. No sign of fatigue, either, as he threw a complete-game shutout against the Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS. His 194 K’s and 40 walks in 200.2 innings (in 30 starts) aren’t anything to sneeze at, and his ERA of 3.27 is perfectly decent. But even the nice, round number of 20 wins isn’t quite enough to dislodge C.C. from his throne. Finally, John Lackey has barely gotten a mention, even though he has the best ERA in the league (3.01) and a comparable record (19-9). His 224 IP in 33 starts are better than the other also-rans, and his 179 K’s and 52 walks are certainly comparable. Yet his candidacy barely got any airtime. No, people wanted to talk about Chien-Ming Wang instead. While Wang’s season was impressive, his numbers definitely put him at the bottom of the pack (see Aaron Harang, above). And we curtly nod in the direction of Scott Kazmir, who was the AL strikeout leader this season, but walked 89 batters and who couldn’t do better than 13-9 because of Tampa Bay’s atrocious bullpen. We also acknowledge Eric Bedard, whose monstrous 10.93 K/9 rate would surely have gotten him better than a 13-5 record were he not toiling away for the Orioles.

Remember, also-rans: there’s always next year.

Howard Bryant is quickly becoming my new favorite writer over at ESPN.com.

First I find that he wrote a column the other day which almost exactly duplicates the sentiments I expressed here on umpbump about the Sun setting on the Yankees dynasty .

And now I find that his latest column expresses almost exactly my amazement at Indians manager Eric Wedge’s decision to pitch Paul Byrd in game four tomorrow, instead of probable Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia on three days rest.

I mean, seriously, Paul Byrd?

Eric Wedge obviously doesn’t understand what the playoffs are all about. Pitch counts and proper rest are all well and good in the regular season, but in the playoffs, if you lose, you go home. And cry into your Jack Daniels for six months about the one that got away.

Sure, Paul Byrd won 15 games this year. But those were just about the softest 15 victories you can get. Astonishingly, of those 15 wins, only 3 (yes, only three) were against teams with winning records!

This past season Byrd had a very middling ERA of 4.59, his 11.18 hits per 9 innings was the second worst of all qualified starting pitchers in the whole major leagues, and he was the beneficiary of more than 6 runs a game of run support. So despite the gaudy total of 15 wins Byrd was at best a major-league average pitcher this season.

And is major-league average really the kind of guy you want to be throwing in a do-or-die playoff series? Let alone throwing him against the best offense in the entire major leagues?

I mean, this isn’t some NL Central team that snuck into the playoffs with 84 wins. These are the freaking NEW YORK YANKEES. Yes, the are down 2-1, but they score more runs than God, have about 1,000 times more playoff experience than you, they just got up off the mat with a momentum-building 8-4 victory, and oh yeah, they are playing for their beloved manager’s job.

And sure enough, looking at the numbers, in his last four starts against the New York Yankees Paul Byrd is 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA.

I just don’t get it. Why bother with Byrd at all when your alternative is to come back-to-back in consecutive games with two 19-game winner, Cy Young types who have already shown their ability to dominate the Yankees? Sure, Sabathia will be going on short rest, but history has shown that working 3 days rest is quite doable in the playoffs, especially for an ace-type like Sabathia (See file: Becket, Josh, 2003 World Series), and even if Sabathia falters, the Indians could then bring on Fausto Carmona on full rest in game five. Given just how good these two guys are, and the fact that the Indians only need one more win, aren’t the odds pretty good that at least one of the two can get a victory, if you give them two shots in a row?

And it’s not even like you would be messing up the rotation for the ALCS. If C.C. were to pitch and win game 4, Wedge could go with Carmona and Sabathia in the first two games against Boston on full rest, whereas if Byrd loses, they are going to have to throw Westbrook in one of those games.

Not that Wedge should even be worrying about the ALCS anyway. In the playoffs nothing is assured, and you can’t afford to waste any games on mediocre 4th starters like Paul Byrd if you don’t absolutely have to.

And the Indian’s don’t have to, which is why this makes no sense.

Oh what could have been.

My fantasy team (Team Umpbump) entered this week in seventh place in our 12-team league, one spot out of the playoffs. The team was riding high on the strenth of its starting pitching (Pedro, Halladay, Webb, Padilla and Radke) and on the hot bat of one Mr. Chase Utley.

In fact, last week was full of smiley-happy storylines for Team Umpbump. Pedro made his first really strong start after a couple weeks on the DL. Justin Morneau, a guy who got off to a slow start this season, but who I stuck with anyway, hit .400 with 12 RBIs and a homer last week, raising his season totals to .321, 29 HRs and 98 RBIs.

Mark Teixeira, who got off to an even slower start than Morneau, had his second monster week in a row, hitting .304 with 4 HRs and 6 RBIs.

All of this, you’re thinking, must have added up to fantasy success for Team Umpbump, right? Wrong.

You see, before the week started, I made what I thought at the time was a pretty savvy move, picking up Fausto Carmona, the man who inherited the Cleveland Indians’ closer job after Bob Whickman was traded to the Braves. Carmona had been lights out as a setup man. It looked like a no-brainer.

But, as you’ve probably heard, Carmona didn’t last long as the Indians’ closer. In three relief appearances over the course of seven days he racked up three blown saves. His ERA last week was 37.80. He was, simply put, not good.

Over the course of every fantasy season, there comes a roll-the-dice moment. Whether you’re deciding to trade Pedro before he starts his inevitable second-half decline, or deciding to take a chance that Carl Crawford can make it through a season without a major injury, you’ll have to make at least one of these season-changing decisions. My biggest roll the dice moment this season might have been the decision to pin my bullpen hopes on Carmona. It was a decision that made so much sense at the time. He’s a young guy with electric stuff. A fast ball pitcher strikeout pitcher born to close on a team that plays a lot of close games. Plus, his name is Fausto, which conjurs up images of the devil and is just such a cool name for a closer. It really did seem like a good idea at the time.

Now, like so many of my ill-conceived fantasy decisions of seasons past, it seems a little stupid.