UmpBump’s Week 4 Fantasy Results
The Week 4 results are in for UmpBump’s head-to-head league. Who’s up, who’s down, who’s in, who’s out.
Sarah: After inflicting a veritable ass-kicking on Alejandro for most of the week, I (again!) suffered a terrible Sunday and had to content myself with a tie. Poop. Now I’ve dropped down to sixth in our 12-person league, my worst showing so far. You know what really grates? If I’d just taken a gamble and played Kyle Lohse yesterday, I would have won. But I benched him, because I was already winning nearly all the pitching categories and I thought he would only screw it up. Of course, Lohse pitched a beaut, but none of it counted for the Somerville Green Sox. Disgusting. Hot: Jacoby Ellsbury, Russell Martin, David Murphy, Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Freakin’ Lohse. Not: Andy Pettitte, Johnny Cueto, Carlos Guillen, Vernon Wells.
Coley: Well, things can’t get much worse. I got handed an 11-1 beatdown this week. And it hurt. A lot. The problem is clearly my offense, which is getting routinely smacked around, especially in RBI and HR. I’m going to have to pull the trigger on a trade, maybe swap some speed for some power, if possible. You know who isn’t helping? Jose Reyes. He was terrible this week. And, frankly, he’s been bad all year. So, is it time to trade him? Or do I ride it out? And for how long? My pitching staff (Aaron Harang, Dice-K, Brett Myers, Jered Weaver and Oliver Perez) wasn’t great this week, either. But I’m not worried about my pitching. That’s a loaded staff. Hot: Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton. Not: Jose Reyes, Carlos Pena, Chone Figgins, Brett Myers.
Paul: Cliff. Lee. That is all. (Actually, if I left it at that, Sarah would kill me.) Anyhow, on the heels of yet another improbably brilliant outing by the Cleveland lefty, ElDuquesInjuryReport now stands atop the standings in out humble league. But even more welcome were the two outings by Cleveland’s other lefty, C.C. Sabathia, who appears to have put his terrible start to the year behind him. Offensively, Edwin Encarnacion had a pretty big week (6 runs, 2 HRs, 19TBs and .379 OBP), as did Brian Roberts (6 runs, 2 HRs, 2 SBs, 17 TBs and .407 OBP). The next victim in my Winnebago tour of carnage is Bryan (Pirates in ‘08!). Sir, you are about to enter a world of pain. Hot: C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jhonny Peralta (Indians galore!), Brian Roberts, Edwin Encarnacion. Not: Kevin Youkilis, David Wright, Scott Baker.
Alejandro: After surging last week, my team found itself in the woodshed being taken to school by Green’s Somerville’s Green Sox. For any of you who know a little bit about soccer or hockey, you know a come-from behind tie brings about a good feeling of accomplishment. I have to point out Francisco Liriano, on whom I took a big gamble, along with like 90%+ of Yahoo! fantasy players, lost big time. Needless to say, I dropped him, frankly because I don’t expect to get any results out of him, whereas I could by taking a smaller gamble on someone like the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer, 2-0 , 3.77 era, 31 k , 10bb, 1.13 whip. Hot: Chipper Jones, Hunter Pence, Magglio Ordóñez, Tim Lincecum (stud), Billy Wagner, Josh Becket (13k’s!). Not: Kevin Milwood, Gavin Floyd (don’t give up on him yet!), Francisco Liriano (dropped).
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Rookiemania!
Rookies. So young and innocent. So naive and trusting. So….so….skinny.
Which of these tender young morsels showed the most promise this year? Which of them is most likely to end up, 15 years down the line, with bum knees, a bad back, an HGH-bloated jaw, a contract his team wants to dump, tobacco-stained teeth, kids who barely know his name, two ex-wives who both hate him, tens of millions of dollars, three SI covers, and a venereal disease he picked up on a rehab assignment in Florida after his second wrist surgery?
In the National League, there are many good candidates. I have to start by mentioning Cla Meredith. When the Sox dumped Meredith (sending him to the Padres with Josh Bard in order to reacquire knuckler-catching-specialist Doug Mirabelli) Boston was elated. This trade ended up being a bad move for a number of reasons (not least because the Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield spent a good chunk of time on the DL, rendering Mirabelli’s defensive skills somewhat extraneous, and because Jason Varitek, playing hurt and then missing a lot of time, had a lousy year—and looking back on it, wouldn’t you have rather just stuck with Bard (.333) no matter how many passed balls he had?) but a big reason is that Cla recovered from his previous struggles to pitch the way Boston had initially hoped he would. In 50 and two-thirds innings of relief, he struck out 37, walked just 6, and racked up 5 wins (and only one loss). How did he do it? Well, his 1.07 ERA and .170 BAA didn’t hurt. And looking back at the Red Sox’ season (sorry, I can’t help it) given that two of their biggest problems were filling the spot behind the dish and bridging the gap between the starting pitcher and Jonathan Papelbon (a role formerly filled by Mike Timlin, the ghost of whom was not enough this year), if the Red Sox had kept ahold of Bard and Meredith, we could be gearing up for the playoffs tonight instead of sitting at home watching Netflix movies. So for his great performance in relief this year, Meredith is my No. 3 ROY pick.
Hanley Ramirez is even more impressive. He’s got good offensive numbers for a shortstop (.292/59 RBI/17 HR, along with 46 doubles and 11 triples). But what impresses me even more is that he racked up almost the same number of walks (56) and stolen bases (51). So why am I not giving him my ROY award? Too many errors. A whopping 26, putting him third-from-last among qualified NL shortstops. Yikes. (In fairness, his range factor puts him in the top half of that group, but still.) So Hanley is my runner-up.
For my top NL ROY pick, I’m going to go with Ryan Zimmerman. Yes, he’s got those 110 RBIs and 20 homers (both nice, round numbers). But he also has 47 doubles and 61 walks. Good show, kid. Yes, he made 15 errors on the season down there at the hot corner, but in the NL that’s good enough to put him in a three-way tie for best fielding percentage. It’s a tough call, but Zimmerman edges out Ramirez based on defense.
Now for the AL. Francisco Liriano was quite the stud for the Twins in the first half, but his arm gave out down the stretch. I know that’s not uncommon for a rookie pitcher, but still. This is the bigs, and ROY is a big-league award. No doubt Liriano will come back next year, stronger and tougher, and be as lights-out as before. His 12-3 record and 2.16 ERA are smoking, and even though his teammates have apparently nicknamed him “Franchise,” he didn’t go the full stretch and so I just can’t give him my ROY.
The same stands, sadly, for Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon. Pap won over Beantown with his fire, consistency, and jaw-dropping ERA (which never rose above 1.00 all season). He even gave rise to the best new turn-of-phrase in sportswriting this year. In short, he’s the hotness. And maybe he would have pitched through his transient subluxation had the Sox stayed in contention. But as it is, they shut him down about a month ago.
There’s a case to be made for Nick Markakis, the bedimpled Orioles rightfielder, who’s already batting third in the birds’ lineup. Unlike some of the other newbs we’ve been discussing here on UmpBump, this is a guy who has only gotten better as the season has gone on, hitting .365 in the second half. If I were a GM and I had to, say, find a promising young rightfielder to replace an old, injury-prone free-agent rightfielder, he’d be right at the top of my list (not that the O’s are going to let him get away). But ROY winner? Not this year. Not even with my weakness for all things tall, dark, and handsome. Sorry, Dimples.
I’ll give Pap my third place vote over Liriano (but just by a hair) and Markakis my number two slot, but first place has to go to—surprise surprise—Justin Verlander. Much of the Tigers’ surprising success this year can be laid at his feet (17 wins and a solid 3.63 ERA). And unlike the other young guns on the list, he hasn’t flagged as the season’s gone on. That makes him my AL Rookie of the Year.
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The Kids are All Right: Rookie of the Year Picks
The Rookie of the Year award can be a harbinger of great things to come (Ryan Howard) or of stunning, dramatic collapse (Eric Hinske). It’s hard to imagine that this year’s candidates have anything other than great careers ahead of them. But then again, somebody probably said that about Jerome Walton, too.
Without further ado, the picks.
The NL
3. Dan Uggla (.281/.337/.474, 26 HR, 89 RBI)
2. Ryan Zimmerman (.289/.354/.475, 20 HR, 109 RBI)
1. Hanley Ramirez (.292/.353/.481, 17 HR, 51 SB)
Dan Uggla was an all-star this season and a legit slugger in the middle of the Marlins lineup. He was also solid defensively and, with the exception of Chase Utley, was probably the league’s best 2B. But he wasn’t this year’s best rookie.
It’s tempting to give the ROTY to Ryan Zimmerman in anticipation of the career he’s going to have, just as it’s tempting to give Derek Jeter the MVP award as a sort of career achievement award. Zimmerman’s got to be the surest thing among all of the talented rookies in the class of 2006. But he wasn’t this year’s best rookie, either.
Hanley Ramirez’s VORP (value over replacement player) this season was 50.7. The rookie with the next highest VORP was Uggla, at 38.6. In other words, it wasn’t even close. Ramirez hit for average, played above average defense and stole an obscene number of bases. He’s a game-changing player. And before all is said and done he’s going to be the biggest reason we’ll look back and say, “Man, the Red Sox got hosed in the Josh Beckett trade!” His biggest shortcoming is that he strikes out too much, 150 times this season, or around 25 percent of the time. But the long and short for Hanley is this: if he gets on base, he’s dangerous. And he gets on base a lot.
The AL
3. Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63 ERA, 186 IP)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (35 SV, 0.92 ERA, 75K/68.1IP)
1. Francisco Liriano (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 121 IP)
How do you know there are a lot of great rookie pitchers in the American League? When the top three candidates for AL Rookie of the Year are all pitchers, that’s how. And Jered Weaver, if he had gotten a few more starts, could have easily made this list.
Justin Verlander was the Tigers’ ace this season, stepping up when others faltered and leading Detroit to its first playoff appearance since…ummm…I have no idea when. But it’s been a long time.
Jonathan Papelbon had an ERA of less than one. I mean, really, how do you have an ERA under one and not win a major award?
I’ll tell you how. You go head to head with Francisco Liriano, who, along with Johan Santana, strapped the Twins on his back and led them to the post season. Liriano got hurt late in the season, but when he was healthy, he was untouchable. And there is plenty of precedent for giving the ROTY to a rookie who doesn’t play a full season. Ryan Howard won last season, even though he only played in 88 games. Liriano was dominant as a reliever early in the season and he was dominant as a starter in the second half. And he’s your 2006 AL Rookie of the Year.
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Francisco Ouchiano
Francisco Liriano, rookie stud pitcher, made his return last night from a month on the DL with a ligament
problem—only to have to come out of the game in the third inning. The AP’s snappy lead:
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Francisco Liriano has heard plenty about Cy Young during a spectacular rookie season.
Now that he is out for the rest of the season, another pitcher might be entering the conversation — Tommy John.
Ouch. Liriano seemed fine until the third, when suddenly, he said, “I felt a pop and it really hurts.”
The Twins lost last night. This morning, they’re a game and a half up from the White Sox in the wild card race, and a game and a half behind the Tigers in the AL Central.
Liriano? Done for the season.
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