It’s being reported that the Mets and Francisco Rodriguez have agreed to a 3-year, $37MM deal pending a physical. And it’s also believed that the deal includes a fourth year option that vests based on certain performance criteria being met.

Although I will probably be rather excited the first time I see K-Rod coming out of the CitiField bullpen, I have mixed emotions about this.

On the one hand, I had initially imagined the Mets paying far more to fill their closer role in 2009 and beyond. There was so much ink spilled about the ineptitude of the New York relief corps in 2008 that I figured the Mets brass would make poor reactionary moves. You see, I feel that the team’s front office often make moves to create short-term excitement among its fans and beat writers and in the process lose sight of the long-term goals. But this deal is short enough to keep things sane and doesn’t exceed the $15MM/year that I figured K-Rod would get.

However, there are only a few others whose perspectives I value more than ESPN’s Keith Law, who jointly utilizes statistics and scouting reports better than just about anyone. On his list of the top 50 free agents, K-Law ranks K-Rod 16th overall, writing:

Yes, that’s a purty number in the saves column, but it serves to obscure some troubling signs in K-Rod’s stuff and peripherals. He’s sitting 91-93 mph now with good life, but his once-devastating slider is far less sharp, and he pitches much more off his fastball than he did before, mixing in an average changeup more frequently than he did in the days when he earned the “K” in his nickname.

His strikeout rate has been falling with the quality of his pitches, and the average length of his outings has dropped, which might be a sign that he can’t be stretched out for two innings if need be; he didn’t record more than three outs in any game during the regular season. Among players likely to get contracts of four years or longer, K-Rod probably represents the greatest risk of a flameout.

K-Rod’s Pitch F/X information shows that in 2007, his average fastball was 95.5 mph. This past season, however, it dropped quite a bit to 92.9 mph. And like Law noted, the slider that broke 6.65 inches in ‘07 was now only breaking 4.8. And yes, this is kind of a big deal.

If you look at his strikeouts per nine innings over the last five seasons, you’ll notice a trend: 14.3, 12.5, 12.8, 12.2, 10.3. You can get away with a diminishing strikeout rate if you don’t walk too many batters, but Rodriguez has been in Oliver-Perez-territory when it comes to issuing free passes. Unless K-Rod can somehow reverse or at least stop this trend, the Mets won’t be getting a lock-down closer, but rather, just a serviceable one.

For now, the team is allowing the fanbase to get excited, bagging the biggest name on the relief market. It will avert the criticisms that the front office faced when the Mets were stumbling out of contention for the second year in a row and sell some more tickets. And to the Mets, maybe that alone is worth a good chunk of the $37MM.  But if you were looking for value, this isn’t exactly it.

Man, I’m glad it’s only three guaranteed…

If you’re a loyal UmpBump reader (thanks!) then you would know that the staff likes sabermetrics. Well I would include myself in that bunch, except I’ve been slacking on the mathematics of it all, and don’t really know much about PECOTA, Runs Created, etc, except to say that it’s dense stuff.

Well, since I’m scheduled to pick my Cy Young candidates, I figured I might as well take a crack at this saber stuff and do some calculatin’ to backup my claims. So as to not diminish the value of my own criteria, I’ll take stats into consideration, but I deem it important to consider the overall success of the team. How will I determine this? Well, simple really, did the team make the playoffs, and/or what percentage did the pitcher’s wins constitute of the overall team victories.

National League

I decided to take a look at the senior circuit first, and from the start, there’s a handful of names constantly atop the stat categories: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Webb, and near the periphery, Dan Haren and Cole Hamels.

In my (humble) opinion, ERA and Wins (with a 200 IP minimum) are obligatory stat criteria to make a preliminary evaluation of pitchers. So looking at the top three in each, we narrow the list to: Santana (2.53, 16), Lincecum (2.62, 17), Dempster (2.96, 17), and Webb (3.30, 22). To further thin the list, lets take a look at some sabermetrics: Only Webb and Santana are in the top three in positive WPA (with Lincecum at a very close fourth), and in overall Win Probability Added, Lincecum lead the NL with a 4.59 index, followed by Santana, Dempster, and Webb.

With those two breakdowns in mind, we can take Dempster out of the list, and by looking at one more sabermetric, the player leverage index, we can eliminate Santana since his pLI is below 1. And lastly, lets look at each players win total and what percentage of his team’s wins it represents: The Giants won 72 games, meaning Lincecum’s 17 are equivalent to 23% of the wins. The Diamondbacks won 80 games, and Webb’s 22 have a 27.5% share of their wins.

Brad Lidge is my stud pick for NL Cy Young

Now, taking relievers into account, and paying close attention to the closers, out of those with more than 30 saves, only the Phillies’ Brad Lidge cracks the top 3 in WPA (5.37); meaning he’s the only one worthy of Cy Young consideration (again, IMHO).

It’s a close call. For one, neither the Diamondbacks or Giants made the playoffs, and the Phillies did advance to the NLCS, thanks in part to Lidge closing out the Brewers. Lidge did have a 1.95 ERA and pitched 69.3 innings, and even though his 41 saves didn’t lead the league (Jose Valverde had 44), they’re good for a second-place tie with the Giants’ Brian Wilson (oh, and by the way, he blew zero save opportunities).

If we follow our sabermetric gut instinct, he beat out Lincecum in overall WPA, so I think we’ve reached the conclusion that makes the most sabermetric sense: Brad Lidge gets my vote for NL Cy Young, with Lincecum second and Webb third.

American League

Cliff Lee was just that good; he's the AL Cy Young in my camp.

Keeping the dense matter to a minimum, let’s do the math for the junior circuit. So filtering the top three in ERA and Wins we get: Cliff Lee (2.54, 22), Roy Halladay (2.81, 20), John Lester (3.21, 16), and Mike Mussina (3.37, 20). It’s safe to eliminate Lester from the list based on the fact that the other three starters won 20 or more games. To further filter the list, only Lee and Halladay cracked the top three in WPA with 5.96 and 3.47 respective indexes.

Let’s not forget percentage of wins: Lee’s wins represented 27% of the Indians’ wins this year (81-81) while Halladay’s accounted for 23% the Blue Jays’ victories.

Again, to keep relievers in the mix, I’ll take a look at the top closer this year in the American League, Francisco Rodriguez. He set the record for saves in a regular season with 62, had a 2.24 era (only good for fourth best among relievers), but his WPA barely puts him in the top five, with a 3.33 index.

The Angels did make the post season, while the Indians had a very disappointing year, but Lee’s numbers were extremly good, far above the best; he only lost three games and won 71% of his starts. Had it not been for that sheer dominance I’d vote for Rodriguez, but Cliff Lee gets my vote for Cy Young in the AL, with Rodriguez second and Halladay third.

Like I said before, I hadn’t really used sabermetrics to gauge my appreciation of player performance, and considering it was my first time really looking at traditional stats mixed with sabermetrics to make an evaluation, I have to say I’m sold. That stuff does not lie.

Did anyone else notice that the ending of yesterday’s game between the Yankees and the Angels bore quite a resemblance to a certain poem of some note?  The resemblance was especially clear to me upon reading the article about it in the LA Times.

I felt inspired to take a crack at putting the final moments of the game into verse, and here’s what I came up with:

# # #

The outlook wasn’t brilliant for the Gotham nine that day:
The score stood four to two, with but one inning left to play.
And now with K-Rod on the mound, the Angels in the lead,
There seemed but little chance the Yanks could get the runs they’d need.

A straggling few got up to go in deep despair. The rest
Clung to that hope which springs eternal in the human breast;
They thought, if only “Captain Clutch” could get a whack at that -
We’d put up even money, now, with Jeter at the bat.

But Abreu preceded Jeter, plus Posada, Cabrera, and Damon,
That the Yankees’ hopes were slim was clear, even to a baseball layman.
So upon that stricken multitude grim melancholy sat,
For there seemed but little chance of Jeter’s getting to the bat.

Abreu walked, no big surprise, Posada’s single bored them,
But then Damon’s groundout moved them up, and Melky’s sac fly scored one!
And when the dust had lifted, and they saw what came to be,
There was Posada hugging third, and the score just four to three!

Then from 10,000 throats and more there rose a lusty roar;
It rumbled through Manhattan, it washed the Jersey shore;
It echoed off the Hudson and the fans could hardly wait,
For Jeter, mighty Jeter, was advancing to the plate.

There was practiced ease in Jeter’s manner as he took his rips;
All businesslike was Jeter’s mein, no smile on Jeter’s lips.
And when, despite the pressure, Jeter’s face betrayed no fear.
No stranger in the crowd could doubt ’twas Jeter they did cheer.

The announcers spouted Jeter man-love, recounting all his stats,
His famous flip to nail Giambi, and all his clutch at-bats;
.488 with runners on, a figure mighty fine,
Runners on base and two men out? An amazing .609!

They gazed in admiration as up to the plate he pranced;
They screamed their adulation as he dug into his stance.
And now as K-Rod toed the mound, the ball held at his hip,
Defiance shone in Jeter’s eyes, a sneer curled Jeter’s lip.

Eight times Rodriguez kicks and deals, firing to the plate full-bore
But Jeter works the count to full, and then fouls off three more!
Fastballs, 96 at least, and sliders on the black,
But Jeter keeps on hanging tough, his focus never slacks.

That sneer once more curls Jeters’s lip, the time for toying’s past;
‘Twas plain the next pitch K-Rod threw would be the ballgame’s last.
And now the hurler holds the ball, and now he lets it fly,
Now Jeter swings, his swing is true, ball soaring through the sky!

Oh, somewhere in this dark, dark world, the rain is pouring down;
Hearts are being broken, and somewhere people frown,
Oh, somewhere men are weeping, and somewhere clouds are black;
But all true fans are smiling now—Jeter flied out to the track!