As of this writing, Ray Durham is still a free agent.  Yes, the same Ray Durham who posted an .812 OPS last season, including an outstanding .380 OBP, and played league-average defense at second base.

By OPS+, Durham’s offensive performance last season was better than that of the current second baseman of 22 of the 30 teams in the majors, and his .380 OBP would be better than all but 3 other major league second sackers.

Obviously, Durham was a casualty of the crazy economics of this past offseason, when his contract demands may have been a bit high for a 38-year old, but I can think of several teams just off the top of my head – the Giants, White Sox, Braves, and Mariners spring to mind – who could instantly upgrade their team by installing Durham at 2B instead of the guy they are currently playing.

Teams like that should definitely be giving Ray a call to see what kind of contract he might play for.

So the news broke today that the Washington Nationals have just signed lefty relief ace Joe Beimel, which begs the question, why in the heck did the Washington Nationals just sign lefty relief ace Joe Beimel???

The contract is for one year, $2 million, and with the Nationals having no chance in hell of contending this year, it is clear that interim GM Mike Rizzo is just as intent on flushing money down the toilet as Jim Bowden was, because this $2 million is a total waste.

Not that Joe Beimel is not a decent pitcher.  More than just a situational lefty, Beimel actually held right-handed batters to an even lower OPS than lefthanders last year, and could easily be slotted in as a setup man on a contending team.

Which means that another good question is why the heck Joe Beimel had to sign with the Nationals.  Nobody else would give him even $2 million?  Something odd is going on here, or there is something we don’t know about.  Everyone kept saying that Beimel was asking for too much, but heck, even Dennys Reyes got $3 million.

Maybe Beimel overplayed his hand and waited too deep into the offseason, after all the jobs were filled?

Recently at UmpBump HQ, there’s been a lot of Boston Red Sox talk. While the Yankees have acquired themselves some big-ticket items and the already-strong Rays made a few smart, affordable moves, the BoSox have been raiding the sale rack. And they’re clearly not done yet — this morning’s announcement was the signing of Takashi Saito, and there’s word they’re also focusing on Miguel Montero. We debated a few of their recent moves, for Josh Bard, Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz, and Mr. Jamie Kotsay.

Coley: Now the Red Sox have signed Mark Kotsay. How is this guy a fourth (or even fifth!) outfielder? The Sox have insane depth. It really is like they have money to burn.

Paul: the 4th/5th OF thing isn’t so important as promising these guys PAs. Baldelli is always a game-time decision. Plus, Kotsay spells Youk at first, who will also spell Lowell at 3rd. He’ll get a decent amount of playing time. Plus, it seems that Kotsay is a very good defensive firstbaseman and isn’t terrible offensively. I think it’s a good use of 1.5MM.

Coley: That’s what I mean about Boston’s depth. They’ve got Kotsay who can play outfield and 1B. They’ve got Youk who can play 1B and 3B. They’ve got Lugo who can play SS and 2B and Jed Lowrie, who can play almost any infield position. Regarding at bats, I understand why guys want to play for Boston, but I’m surprised a guy like Kotsay wouldn’t go somewhere where he could get more at bats.

Sarah: “They’ve got Lugo who can play SS and 2B” should read: “They’ve got Lugo who sucks no matter where you put him.” (Readers: take one drink.) Kotsay wanted to go somewhere where he could be a regular, I thought he just couldn’t find a taker.

Coley: I understand that Kotsay couldn’t find a starting job, but there surely are teams where he stood a better chance of getting regular playing time, or “burn” as we call it in the industry. The Giants, for example, need an outfielder and a 1B, and Kotsay plays both. Maybe Kotsay’s counting on Lowell being hurt and Youk playing third?

Sarah: Why not? Lowell was hurt for much of last season. And I think if the choice is limited playing time with either the Giants or the Sox, the answer is pretty clear.

Coley: I don’t think it’s clear. Both the Giants and Sox have a shot at making the playoffs this season. Both play in gorgeous stadiums. And the weather and food is better in San Francisco. Plus, I’m sure Kotsay has roots in the Bay area from his days in Oakland.

Paul: Maybe the Manny situation played a role. If Kotsay thought there was a chance that Manny signs in SF, there goes his “burn”.

Sarah: Those are all good points. But maybe he’s just as happy not to move across the country right now, all things being equal. Or maybe he just really likes red Sox fans. :)

Coley: He doesn’t need the warm embrace of Red Sox nation. He’s got Jamie. And I don’t think there’s much chance Manny signs in SF. They don’t have the money.

Paul: I don’t think that Manny’s going to end up in SF either. But it’s all about creating doubt. Say, the Red Sox played that hand – “Manny might go to San Fran. Stay here and you don’t have to worry about it. But you have to decide now.”

Coley: That’s probably roughly what they told Brad Penny, right before they went out and signed John Smoltz.

Paul: I don’t think the Smoltz situation will hurt Penny. (Beckett-Lester-Smoltz (after he recovers) -Matsuzaka-Penny.) It’ll hurt Wake. Now the whole “bringing Josh Bard back” thing makes sense. I was wondering why the Sox would do that when they shipped Bard out a couple of years ago because he couldn’t catch the knuckler.

Sarah: Another big draw for players (maybe in Penny and Baldelli’s case) is Boston’s medical staff. They are known for having basically the best medical staff in MLB. Plus, being in Boston, they have access to some of the best doctors and hospitals in the world. I think the Sox signed Bard because they realized:

a) he was one of the better options (if not the best option) for a backup catcher
b) they have openly said trading him away was a mistake
c) they are not done trying to get a young catcher to replace Tek as the starting guy

Coley: I’m really interested to see if a Buchholz-Saltalamacchia trade happens. The Bard thing confuses me a little, though. If the Sox do land Salty, I don’t see them starting the season with Salty and Bard as the two catchers. First of all, I don’t think either of them can catch Wake. Second, if the Sox land Salty, I think they’ll pair him with a veteran.

Sarah: They did carry three catchers for pretty much the whole second half last year. Besides, anyone who turns out to be surplus can be traded this summer.

Paul: I don’t understand the three catcher thing for an AL team. You’re already down one bench spot for the DH. Why burn another one with the third catcher? Then again, the Red Sox are far smarter than i am.

Coley: If the Sox did carry a third catcher, and it was a veteran, it would have to be somebody who was just happy to be on the roster. I don’t think Tek would sign on just to mentor the kids. Maybe Sal Fasano is available?

Sarah: At this point, if the Sox do get, say, Teagarden for Buchholz, this is how I see it playing out:

• Tek and Tea split time; Tea catches Wake (if Wake even pitches — he was injured for much of ‘08 too)
• When Tek gets injured, Tea takes over; Bard backs him up (Tek plays hurt all the time — probably hurts more than JD Drew ever does, but is made of pig iron, chewing tobacco, and Clint Eastwood’s spit, so he never says anything  — but with a young, talented catcher on the roster, he wouldn’t have to keep sucking it up all the time).
• If it’s Salty and not Tea, the Sox have Salty take over first base now and then; Wakefield retires rather than force Bard, Salty, or Tek to catch him, because Wake always puts the team first. He’s just that kind of guy.

Nick: If the Sox trade for a catcher, they definitely won’t resign Varitek. If the trade happens, one of Bard or the new guy will have to catch Wakefield.

Sarah: Well, yes. That is the unspoken “nuclear option.” Though part of the reason no other team wants to sign him is that they’ll have to give up a draft pick to do so (because the Sox offered him arb and he declined) and so far, no one has wanted to do that. So even if the Sox do get a young catcher in addition to Bard, Varitek still might end up in the Sal Fasano posish of “just wanting to be on the roster.”

What do you guys think? Sox fans, how do you feel about this bevy of small moves compared to New York’s two giant signings? Non-Sox fans, would you want to see your team take a chance on Varitek? What about the Saito move? And we barely touched on Smoltz! Let’s keep the convo going in the comments.

ESPN’s Buster Olney is reporting that free agent 1B Mark Teixeira is Bronx-bound with an eight-year deal worth $180MM.

If Sportsline’s Danny Knobler was correct when he wrote just a couple of hours ago that that the Nationals and Red Sox were the two teams remaining in the hunt for Teix’s services, the Yankees swooped in at the 11.9th hour with this offer that supposedly includes a full no-trade.

Teixeira will be 29 by the time the new Yankee Stadium officially opens for baseball and he brings with him the deserved reputation as one of the best two-way first basemen in the game. He will take over for the departed Jason Giambi, a guy who can still hit but is far inferior defensively.

In 2008. Teix had a WPA (Win Probability Added) of 5.87 while Giambi was at 1.96, – and this metric doesn’t even account for defense. And despite the fact that Teixeira only played 54 games in the AL in 2008, he still racked up 15 Win Shares compared to Giambi’s 16 in 145 games. The only area where the two are really comparable is their ability to get on base.

But is Mark Teixeira worth $180MM?

For me, it’s yes and no. I can easily argue that no player is worth such a long commitment. It’s very unlikely that the Yankees will get eight-years worth of value out of this deal just because it’s rare for any player to be healthy for so long. But Mark Teixeira is the second best first baseman in the game – and that’s about the worst I can say about the guy. He gets on base, hits for plenty of power, keeps his mouth shut and plays stellar defense and has been doing so pretty much since the moment he stepped onto a big league field in his rookie year.

And it can’t be stated enough that this is the Yankees we’re talking about (Evil Empire! Antichrist! Spawn of Federline and Bonaduce! Get over it, people). What’s worth $10 to you is worth a million to them. And they’ll make a profit off it, too.

Word on the street yesterday was that the Boston Red Sox had offered free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira an 8-year, $175-180MM contract. Today, it sounds like Boston’s offer was closer to $165-170MM. The Angels’ rumored offer has been greater than $160 but less than $180, while some speculate that the Nationals have ponied up $200MM. All the same, everyone seems to be offering 8 years — and agent Scott Boras seems to be holding out for a $185MM offer from a team that doesn’t suck.

Recently, I kvetched about a feeling of “inflation” in baseball — Mark Teixeira’s good, but is he really a $200MM guy? I don’t happen to think so. But what do you think?

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So, this is what baseball’s hot stove season looks like in the midst of what just about everyone is calling the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression:

• $161 million for seven years of CC Sabathia.
• $82.5 million for five years of AJ Burnett.
• Multiple $160 million, 8-year offers to Mark Teixeira, and rumors that the bidding could go as high as $175 or even $200 million.

And we haven’t even gotten to Manny Ramirez and Derek Lowe yet.

If baseball salaries are any guide, we should be less worried about credit default swaps and more concerned about inflation. The offers for Tex recall to mind the $160 million deal Boston gave Manny Ramirez in 2000, when he was 28 (the same age Tex is now). That was an 8 year deal with options that could bring it to 200 million and 10 years, a record deal for about two seconds until A-Rod signed that $252 million monster. Then, Manny had just come off a season in which he OBP’ed .457 and slugged .697. His OPS+ was 186.

Those numbers are crazy. Those numbers are eye-popping. Those numbers make me want to laugh, not a happy, trilling laugh, but a twisted, semi-hysterical laugh.

At the beginning of this decade, $160 million used to 8 years of a future Hall of Famer. Now it doesn’t even get you 8 years of a guy who’s just very, very good.

That’s not a knock on Tex. His OPS+ last year was a career-best 151. That’s excellent. But my eyeballs are still in their sockets.

It’s being reported that the Mets and Francisco Rodriguez have agreed to a 3-year, $37MM deal pending a physical. And it’s also believed that the deal includes a fourth year option that vests based on certain performance criteria being met.

Although I will probably be rather excited the first time I see K-Rod coming out of the CitiField bullpen, I have mixed emotions about this.

On the one hand, I had initially imagined the Mets paying far more to fill their closer role in 2009 and beyond. There was so much ink spilled about the ineptitude of the New York relief corps in 2008 that I figured the Mets brass would make poor reactionary moves. You see, I feel that the team’s front office often make moves to create short-term excitement among its fans and beat writers and in the process lose sight of the long-term goals. But this deal is short enough to keep things sane and doesn’t exceed the $15MM/year that I figured K-Rod would get.

However, there are only a few others whose perspectives I value more than ESPN’s Keith Law, who jointly utilizes statistics and scouting reports better than just about anyone. On his list of the top 50 free agents, K-Law ranks K-Rod 16th overall, writing:

Yes, that’s a purty number in the saves column, but it serves to obscure some troubling signs in K-Rod’s stuff and peripherals. He’s sitting 91-93 mph now with good life, but his once-devastating slider is far less sharp, and he pitches much more off his fastball than he did before, mixing in an average changeup more frequently than he did in the days when he earned the “K” in his nickname.

His strikeout rate has been falling with the quality of his pitches, and the average length of his outings has dropped, which might be a sign that he can’t be stretched out for two innings if need be; he didn’t record more than three outs in any game during the regular season. Among players likely to get contracts of four years or longer, K-Rod probably represents the greatest risk of a flameout.

K-Rod’s Pitch F/X information shows that in 2007, his average fastball was 95.5 mph. This past season, however, it dropped quite a bit to 92.9 mph. And like Law noted, the slider that broke 6.65 inches in ‘07 was now only breaking 4.8. And yes, this is kind of a big deal.

If you look at his strikeouts per nine innings over the last five seasons, you’ll notice a trend: 14.3, 12.5, 12.8, 12.2, 10.3. You can get away with a diminishing strikeout rate if you don’t walk too many batters, but Rodriguez has been in Oliver-Perez-territory when it comes to issuing free passes. Unless K-Rod can somehow reverse or at least stop this trend, the Mets won’t be getting a lock-down closer, but rather, just a serviceable one.

For now, the team is allowing the fanbase to get excited, bagging the biggest name on the relief market. It will avert the criticisms that the front office faced when the Mets were stumbling out of contention for the second year in a row and sell some more tickets. And to the Mets, maybe that alone is worth a good chunk of the $37MM.  But if you were looking for value, this isn’t exactly it.

Man, I’m glad it’s only three guaranteed…

Yesterday was the first day that those eligible for free agency this off season were able to file, and among the 65 players who did so was Oliver Perez. MetsBlog.com writes that Ollie will initially seek upwards of $50MM over five years, “while eventually settling on a three– or four-year deal later in the off-season”.

Perez has now logged just a shade under 1000 innings in his major league career that began in 2002 with the Padres. He rose to fame in 2004 as the 22-year old future lefty ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates, going 12-10, posting an ERA of 2.98 with 239 Ks over 196 innings. Four full seasons later, we’re still yet to see another year quite like that out of him. The popular opinion of Perez seems to be that he’s an erratic, yet at times dominant young pitcher with loads of potential that just hasn’t been tapped.

Over the past two plus years since he became a Met, I’ve cheered for Ollie. And quite frankly, I’m hoping that I won’t have to ever again. Why? Because he’s not good. He’s not good enough to warrant his reputation, and he’s certainly not good enough to receive such a large contract – even at three or four years.

It appears that there’s still a lot of people out there who think that Perez will be able to duplicate his 2004 season once again with the proper instruction. And it’s never going to happen. We have four full seasons worth of information to work with here that shows why.

For one, in that 2004 season, Ollie struck out an incredible 11.5 batters per nine innings. That’s impressive for a closer. For a starter who logged close to 200 innings, that’s incredible. But he followed that up with disastrous 2005 and 2006 as a Pirate, seeing his strikeouts per nine plummet to 7.9 and 6.5 respectively. And although he’s gotten those numbers back into “good” territory since he was traded in July of 2006 to New York, it’s still quite a ways away from 11.5. On top of that, Perez’ walks per nine innings haven’t been better than it was in ‘04 either, peaking (in a bad way) in 2005 with 5.7 free passes per game.

But that’s not all. The Hardball Times keeps a stat called FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). In the simplest terms, FIP is what that particular pitcher’s ERA would be if the defense behind him was the same as that for every other pitcher. Taking it a step further, Hardball also uses something called xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching), which calculates what the FIP of each pitcher would be if his HR-allowed were more in line with his flyball rates (It’s generally believed that if a significant percentage of the flyballs given up by the pitcher are going over the fence, it’s either due to a small ballpark or just plain bad luck). For those of you who believe that this stuff is just fancy mumbo-jumbo, just know that it’s a very useful tool to be able to predict the future ERA of pitchers.

Anyhow, if you look at these stats for Oliver Perez (chart on right), you’ll notice something. Since 2005, Perez’ ERA has ranged widely from a low of 3.56 to a high of 6.63. What about FIP? It’s a much smaller range, from 4.36 to 6.19. And it’s even tighter for xFIP – 4.65 to 6.10.

So what does this tell us? For one, Oliver Perez is a below average starter whose ERA should be in the high-4s or even low 5s. And he’s not really that inconsistent on a year to year basis. Aside from that 2006 tenure with the Pirates (which lasted for 15 games), there are no real outliers. His xFIP has been predictable. What has varied is his level of luck and the quality of the defense that’s been behind him. Put an average defensive team behind Oliver Perez and all those guys he’s walking are going to score.

Sure, whereever Ollie ends up, he’ll probably still rack up the strikeouts. But he’ll also keep walking 4+ guys per game. And while he’s been able to keep his actual ERA well below the FIP and xFIP over the past two seasons, it’s a decent bet that this can’t continue. Yes, he’s still young as he won’t turn 27 until June. But we’ve seen him for almost 1000 innings now and he hasn’t changed.

Now do you want to spend $10MM a year on this guy?