I keep reading stories about all the many veteran free agents still out of work. No doubt you’ve seen them too. A quick sampling:

From MLB.com:

Never before in the history of free agency, perhaps, has this happened: Cactus and Grapefruit League games already in full swing with so many name veteran players unsigned and seemingly unwanted.

From Yahoo! sports:

But, if spring training is two weeks old and pitchers are ready for a couple innings and everybody’s getting live at-bats, where are Kenny Lofton and Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver?

When does Corey Patterson report?

Is Mike Piazza retired? Sammy Sosa? Shawn Green? Roger Clemens, we get. But, Barry Bonds?

Barely more than a month from the regular season, the unemployed include Preston Wilson, Freddy Garcia and Rodrigo Lopez.

And it is an odd spring when Juan Gonzalez is in camp (St. Louis) and Julio Franco is not.

From Newsday:

We’re two weeks into spring training and there are still so many notable players looking for jobs.

Seriously, take one glance at the list of remaining free agents and you would be silly not to think you could compete with all these players on one team.

LF: Barry Bonds CF: Kenny Lofton RF:Sammy Sosa 3B: Tony Graffanino* SS:Royce Clayton 2B: Jerry Hairston Jr. 1B:Ryan Klesko C: Mike Piazza

Bench: Corey Patterson, Neifi Perez, Julio Franco, Preston Wilson

Rotation: Roger Clemens, Kyle Lohse, Jeff Weaver, David Wells, Freddy Garcia*

Bullpen: Armando Benitez, Rodrigo Lopez*, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Bob Wickman, Eric Milton, Akinori Otsuka*

* (currently injured)

In all seriousness, I bet that team would win more games than the Marlins this year.

From ESPN:

“Nothing is happening,” one agent said. “Everybody’s kind of frozen. It’s a little bit baffling. I think teams are going to just wait until spring training and start cherry-picking guys.”

From ESPN again:

So is it intentional? Is it artificially created? Makes you wonder. Put it that way….as long as you have your requisite share of crazy contracts, as long as there’s movement, as long as every offer to each player isn’t identical to every other team’s offer, it’s tough to define this as classic collusion.

But so far, I’ve seen no article on this topic that really tries to explain the phenomenon (that last ESPN.com article, by Jayson Stark, proffers more questions than answers). If they mention a cause at all, mention either indictments or a certain greedy agent (whose name rhymes with Bott Scoras) pricing his players out of the market. But these two reasons aren’t enough to explain why so many veterans are choosing between minor league deals or unemployment. Most articles contain some throwaway line about how more teams seem willing to have untested prospects fill those fourth-outfielder or pinch-runner roles on the cheap, but I’ve yet to see anyone really get to the heart of the matter. And I’m not going to dignify the “collusion” rumblings, because I can provide a perfectly sound explanation sans conspiracy theorizing.

The reason for so many unsigned free agents is simply this: we are in the midst of an explosion of young baseball talent. According to Bill James, “arguably, there is more outstanding young talent around right now than at any other moment in baseball history,” or at least since 1964 (James is nothing if not specific). So really, this so-called “mystery” is just old fashioned supply and demand. There ain’t as much demand for the Francos, Loftons, and Wellses of the world in a market flush with a supply of Clays, Camerons, and Jobae.

Is that a sexy explanation? Not to those who get off on name recognition or sports scandals, maybe. But to those of us who like to see the game played with an earnest hunger, it’s pretty gosh darn exciting.

To most Red Sox fans, there’s no man faster than Jacoby Ellsbury. The kid’s projected to steal 32 bases next year after swiping 9 bags in the majors in 33 games last season, without getting caught. His first big league hit came when he beat out an infield single, running so fast not even the TV crew was quite prepared. We watched him dash from second base to home plate on wild pitch, and score standing up. Considering the organization had disdained speed for decades, it wasn’t surprising that many Sox fans had to scrape their jaws off the floor.

But actually, as it turns out, Jacoby Ellsbury may not be the fastest man on earth. He may not even be the fastest man in the Red Sox organization.

Pitching prospect Clay Buchholz, who threw a no-hitter in his second career start, was a champion sprinter in high school. He recently challenged a certain Phillies prospect to a footrace for “talking smack” about pitchers while the two were training at the Athletes Performance Institute near Penascola, Florida. Moreover, writes Baseball Prospectus, “While at Angelina college, Buchholz was also the best hitter on the team, and would still have been drafted in the first ten rounds as an outfielder if he’d never pitched.”

But could Clay beat Ellsbury in a track meet? The world may never know. Despite recent rumors that the two had squared off, Buchholz insists it ain’t so:

“I’ve already been told,” he said, “that I’ll be fined if I race against Ellsbury.”

If someone can get me a reliable source with the name of the Phillies prospect and the outcome of the race, I’ll send you UmpBump stickers!

Other strange news:

Item 1: In case you missed it, Pedro Martinez and Juan Marichal were filmed at a cock fight in the DR. Aside from the issues of animal cruelty and cultural difference which the two-year old video raised, the news spawned new heights of adolescent creativity in headline-writing bloggers everywhere.

Item 2: What, Debbie Clemens took PEDs too? Surely you jest!

Item 3: Livan Hernandez finally has a home with the Twins. But there are numerous free agents still available, including Barry Bonds, Kenny Lofton, Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Shawn Green, Mike Piazza, Shannon Stewart, Armando Benitez, Josh Fogg, Freddy Garcia, Tony Graffanino, Jeff Weaver, Tony Clark, Trot Nixon, Sammy Sosa, Corey Koskie, and Corey Patterson. I know there are teams out there that still have holes to fill, benches to populate, money to spend. Pitchers and catchers report in two days! And, of course, Julio Franco is still available. Won’t someone sign him please? The man’s got a good six months before he turns 50.

I know we are supposed to be talking all Mitchell Report, all the time, but I just wanted to take a moment out to ask: is anyone besides me surprised that David Eckstein just signed with the Toronto Blue Jays for only 1 year, $4.5 million?

I mean, for weeks it has been widely reported that Eckstein has been seeking a 4-year, $36 million dollar contract, and has been comparing himself favorably to Julio Lugo. I’m not sure anyone really expected Eckstein to get that kind of money, but it seemed reasonable to expect that he would at least get something in the ballpark of $7-8 million a year.

While it’s true that Eckstein has been sort of a running joke in the sabermetric community, it seemed reasonable to assume that someone would give him more money than Paul Lo Duca. After all, this is a guy who is legendary for his “intangibles,” “character,” and “grit,” beloved by the mainstream press, was a key member of two World Series winning squads, has a World Series MVP on his resume, and batted a career high .309 last season.

Although Eckstein did have some injury woes last season, appearing in only 117 games, he seems to be perfectly healthy now, and I figured that SOME team would give him a reasonably excessive contract, especially given the always high demand for middle infielders.

All in all, I’d have to say this is actually a pretty smart deal for the Blue Jays, given the price. Although incumbent shortstop John McDonald was one of the better fielding shortstops in baseball last season, he was absolutely abominable at the plate, maintaining his horrendous career 4:1 K:BB ratio while posting a seppuku-worthy .279 OBP and hitting only 1 home run all season.

Eckstein can be expected to improve on McDonald’s OPB by almost 100 points, so even despite the hit the Jays take on defense, he represents a huge upgrade at shortstop, at an extremely modest price. And with only a one-year deal, the Jays are not locked in to Eckstein’s later-30s decline years, and can look for an even better option at short next offseason.

So even though the Blue Jays are typically thought of as a “Moneyball” type team which would not be expected to sign anti-Moneyball poster-boy David Eckstein, cheers to JP Riccardi for pulling of this very reasonable, even ingenious move.

Think of it this way: the Red Sox are going to pay Julio Lugo $10 million next season. Was Eckstein really so crazy to compare himself to Lugo? Given that Lugo and Eckstein are actually about the same on most defensive metrics, who would you rather have batting in your lineup? 32-year-old Eckstein and his .351 career OPB plus 5 million extra dollars, or 32-year-old Julio Lugo and his career .333 OBP, minus $5 million?

It wasn’t too long ago that Eric Gagne was baseball’s premier closer and one of the few relievers to ever win a Cy Young. Then came two years in which he battled injuries, and a pretty good (but not stellar) start to the 2007 season in Texas. Yet in July, enough teams felt that he had enough left to vie for his services at the trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox bested their perpetual competitors in all major acquisitions, the New York Yankees, to win Gagne’s services for the remainder of the season, sending starting pitcher Kason Gabbard, minor league outfielder Dave Murphy, and highly regarded prospect Engel Beltre to Texas in exchange for Gagne. Boston also had to buy out the performance incentives in Gagne’s contract, since they wanted him to be their set-up man, not their closer. At the time, the deal was considered by most (though not all) to be a major coup.

How quickly things change. For reasons even he couldn’t understand, Gagne imploded in Boston. Red Sox fans quickly turned on him, moving from shock to hate to please-kill-him-it-would-be-more-merciful in record time. Time after time after time, Red Sox manager Terry Francona gave Gagne the chance to redeem himself. Time after time after time, Gagne failed. In fact, Eric Gagne was solely responsible for knocking several games off of Boston’s division lead over New York, almost single-handedly fostering an unnecessarily dramatic pennant race at the end of a season in which the Red Sox had commandeered the top spot in the AL East since mid-April.

Now the Red Sox have offered Gagne arbitration. Gagne may accept, but is expected to decline (not least because his agent is Scott Boras, and when do Scott Boras clients ever accept arbitration?). According to Jon Heyman (via mlbtraderumors, which I know all of you are refreshing every 10 minutes, don’t pretend you aren’t!):

The Brewers and Astros are among teams bidding for Eric Gagne, who has to be a closer wherever he goes (he was almost perfect as a closer in Texas last year, then perfectly awful as a setup man in Boston). Perhaps he could return to Texas, too, where he thrived.

And the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers have already contacted Gagne about returning to Texas, where he certainly had more success than in Boston. Last year, they gave him a one-year, $6 million deal with $5 million in performance bonuses.

So I ask you: if you were a baseball GM, would you take a chance on Eric Gagne? Do you think he struggled in Boston just because he wasn’t in the closer role? And if so, how much would you pay him?

This offseason, the one area of the free-agent market that intrigued me aside from where the best player on the planet would land was the backstop. I’ve already written about how slim the pickings are at the catching position, so I won’t go into too much detail, but basically, it looked rife for some terrible contracts. Prior to the month of October, there was a decent number of guys who had a solid resume. Then the Tigers exercised their $13 million option on Pudge Rodriguez. Then you know what happened?

Actual sanity.

I’ll give you all a moment to soak that in.

We good? Let’s go on.

It’s not exactly “edgy” to criticize GMs and owners on their excessive spending habits. It’s simply something to which we’ve grown accustomed. But so far this offseason, I have to give them credit overall. At least when it comes to dealing with the catching market, they’ve collectively drawn a line.

Jason LaRue signed for one-year at $850K with the Cardinals. The Mets retained Ramon Castro for 2 years at $4.6 million, then for one reason or other the reported deal they had with Yorvit Torrealba never happened. Instead of dipping into the market, the Mets dealt the unwelcome Guillermo Mota to Milwaukee for Johnny Estrada, who has one more year before he becomes a free agent. In response, the Brew Crew (and this is one that really surprised me) signed Jason Kendall for a $4.25 million one-year contract. While we can argue as to whether or not any of these transactions will help their respective teams, I think we can collectively agree that these are actually rational.

The only deal that gives me pause (and it’s a pretty big pause, but still) was naturally the Yankees giving Jorge Posada a 4-year $52.4 million deal. But given the season he just had, and the fact that it’s the Yankees we’re talking about, it can at least be explained.

With one-year commitments for Pudge, Estrada, Kendall and LaRue, teams have given themselves some serious future flexibility. We all know how difficult it is to find a catcher who can actually stay healthy and productive for more than five years. It simply doesn’t happen all that often given the nature of the position. So when such an option isn’t available, I find it reassuring that that even in today’s market people aren’t pushing the panic button. GMs who lack a franchise backstop have seemingly resigned themselves to the fact that they’re not going to get much from their catchers. This is a good thing, I think. So I feel compelled to tip my cap. This way, I won’t feel as bad the next time I rip them.

As recently as yesterday morning, it was assumed that free-agent catcher Yorvit Torrealba would be a New York Met in 2008. It was reported that the two sides had reached a three-year $14.4 million agreement and all that was left was a routine physical.

But something happened.

By Saturday afternoon, reports trickled out. The deal was dead, and talks had ceased altogether, making a post I had been drafting in preparation for the signing (entitled “Oh God, No”) uttlerly useless.

Here’s the thing. There was speculation that if Jorge Posada were to test free agency, that the Mets were going after him with a vengeance. Not because signing him away from the Yankees would make backpage headlines, but because they hoenstly thought that he was clearly the best option:

Free Agent Catchers* in 2007-08 - At least the ones you’ve heard of…
(with Age and Career OPS) 

Paul Bako (35, .621)
Rod Barajas (32, .696)
Michael Barrett (31, .747)
Sal Fasano (36, .687… Stache.)
Jason Kendall (33, .768)
Jason LaRue (33, .723)
Mike Lieberthal (35, .783)
Paul Lo Duca (35, .752)
Damian Miller (38, .740)
Doug Mirabelli (37, .724)
Jose Molina (32, .624)
Yorvit Torreabla (29, .705)
*Mike Piazza is no longer a catcher. Get over it, Mets fans. He ain’t comin’ back.

As you can see for yourself, it’s just not an inspiring bunch. Catchers notoriously hit a wall once they hit 32-33 years old. 99.9% of them do not have their career seasons at 36 years old like Posada did. Simply put, it’s a terrible year to be looking for a catcher. The available ones are either has-beens or never-wills. Which is why the Mets had offered a contract to Torrealba. He was the only one under 30  who had a prayer of posting a .700+ OPS in 2008. The market is just that bad. And it’s not going to improve next year either, when the top names (if they remain unsigned) will be Jason Varitek, Pudge Rodriguez, and Kenji Johjima, who will all be a year older, obviously.

Obtaining a good catcher via free agency is very difficult. Let’s say that a catcher is drafted by an MLB team at the age of 20. This team does not have to add this player to the 40-man roster for three years. If they make it this far, then there’s six more years until he becomes eligible for free agency. A 29 year-old catcher does not have the same body as a 29 year-old outfielder. Moreover, teams know this and lock up their franchise backstops to reasonable long-term deals before they regret losing them. So what you generally end up with is a list of guys who are on the wrong side of 30 or wasn’t good enough to merit a long contract.

In 2007, there were 8 catchers with 400 plate appearances who OPSed over .750. Out of this lot, only Josh Bard made his MLB-debut with a different team than his current employers. Perhaps moreso than any other position, homegrown talent is by far the best way to go to find yourself a quality catcher, it seems. Only problem is, the Mets never really have produced a quality catcher in their franchise’s 44-year history (apologies to Todd Hundley).

But without such an option, where do the Mets turn now? As I write this, there appear to be three options:

1. Trade for Ramon Hernandez - Two years ago, the Mets simultaneously offered contracts to both Hernandez and Bengie Molina but neither ended up at Shea. But with the Orioles facing yet another off-season that’s lacking direction (are you rebuilding or trying to win now?), there’s speculation that Hernandez is available. But the Orioles are reportedly asking for a top-flight prospect.
2. Trade for Gerald Laird - With the arrival of Jarrod Saltalamacchia in Arlington, Laird’s name has appeared in trade rumors. He’s only 28 years old and he will certainly not cost as much as Hernandez to acquire. But there are two problems here - Saltalamacchia’s near future may be at first base, which doesn’t make Laird redundant, and even at 28, he’s only had 881 big league at-bats, during which he’s posted a sub-.300 OBP.
3. Start Ramon Castro - One signing that didn’t make much waves is the news that the Mets are keeping Castro around for the next two years. The man (whose head is absolutely gigantic…) who homered in over 7.5% of his ABs in 2007 is currently the only viable option the Mets possess. He slugged .556 in 144 ABs this past year, but not even the most optimistic of Mets fans expect this to continue into 2008.

To me, the best option appears to be the third at this stage of the game. Hernandez is a 31 year-old coming off an injury-plagued year. Laird has never shown that he’s worth giving up anything to acquire him. So why not give Castro a shot? At least until something better comes along, of course…

Word has just come down that Curt Schilling (and family) will be staying in Boston. No sooner had the news leaked out than I saw that the man known as Big Schill will be slightly smaller next year, or (literally) pay the price:

ORLANDO - Curt Schilling’s new 1-year, $8 million deal with the Red Sox (which is pending results of a physical) will include $2 million worth of incentives if he meets weight requirements. The team hopes to insure that Schilling will be fit when he comes to spring training, a source close to the negotiations said moments ago.

But just as I was wondering “How in the heck did they ever get Curt to agree to that?!” I learned that the Weight Watchers plan was the hurler’s own idea:

I inserted the weigh in clause in the 2nd round of offers, counter offers. Given the mistakes I made last winter and into Spring Training I needed to show them I recognized that, and understood the importance of it. Being overweight and out of shape are two different things. I also was completely broad sided by the fact that your body doesn’t act/react the same way as you get older. Even after being told that for the first 39 years of my life. Now I can’t get on Dougie anymore, which sucks, and I am sure the clause will add 15-100 more jokes to Tito’s Schilling joke book.

Other performance incentives include $3 million based on innings pitched and another $1 million if he gets a Cy Young vote (any vote). So while the AP reported a total of $5 million in potential bonuses, it actually adds up to $6 million, even if that final million is rather unlikely. In short, unless he misses serious time or gets seriously husky, Curt will make the same as he did last year and finish his career in Boston. The other teams who called, according to Schilling’s blog, included Philly, St. Louis, Houston, and Arizona.

For a list of reasons why I’m psyched about this, click here.

This hot-stove season’s 3rd base free agent pool has already been the subject of much debate, thanks to one Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez. Then there’s the other premiere free agent third baseman on the market—one Michael Averett Lowell, better known as Mike. And after that, well, we have…the rest. All of them, coincidentally (or maybe not coincidentally, come to think of it) hail from the National League, and most are light-hitting utility infielder-types in their thirties. Yikes. Teams who don’t have a great 3B under contract already and who don’t win the A-Rod/Mike Lowell sweepstakes may well be SOL.

The options:

Jeff Cirillo of Arizona These days, he’s another mid-200’s hitter with good defense, but approaching old-as-hills status at 38.

Aaron (Bleepin’) Boone of Florida Last season, he spent more time at first, and more time on the DL, but provided he can stay healthy he could probably move back across the diamond with little difficulty (if “little difficulty” means “the same high error totals we’ve come to expect from Aaron Bleepin’ Boone”). He can still hit, but his power has been gone since the steroids crackdown. One day, Tim Wakefield will find him where he sleeps.

Mike Lamb of Houston Not a bad option—he hit .289 this season with a .366 OBP. No great shakes, defensively. 32 years old.

Corey Koskie of Milwaukee Didn’t play this year after suffering a concussion on the field in 2006. The Brewers declined to exercise his 2008 option, as their hot corner will be anchored for the foreseeable future by Rookie of the Year candidate Ryan Braun. If he can make a comeback, he’ll still be a bottom-of-the-order type guy. Plus, he’s 34 already. Theoretically, he could work as a defensive replacement. Alas, this is complicated by the fact that he’s never really played any position except third. I’m guessing the Brewers are planning on making Braun take grounders 6 days a week for the next four months. He could well end up a non-roster invitee.

Abraham Nunez of Philadelphia Great defensive range, but another light-hitting 31-year-old.

Russell Branyan of St. Louis Strikes out three times as much as he walks and finished the season hitting under the Mendoza line. 31 years old. Defensively, more of a utilityman than a real third baseman.

Pedro Feliz of San Francisco Of third basemen with enough at-bats to qualify, this guy was last in the majors in OBP. However, he’s among the top 5 in defenisve ability. 32 years old.

Tony Batista of Washington Another mediocre utility infielder in his mid-30s who hits in the mid-.200s. Yawn.

Geoff Blum of San Diego Ditto, but better on defense.

At the beginning of the year, I thought the Red Sox made the right move by holding off on re-signing Curt Schilling. After all, this was supposed to be his final year on the diamond. His fastball is no longer fast. And his waistline is wee a bit, shall we say, Papi-esque.

Based on his regular season stats, the Sox should just let him walk away: for $13 million, you expect better than a 9-8 record and a 3.87 ERA. Contrary to what some in Boston have written, his transition from a power pitcher to a wily, finesse pitcher was not seamless.

But there are at least eight compelling reasons that the Red Sox should let Curt retire in a Red Sox uniform:

1. The old guy’s still got it. This season he came his closest ever to pitching a no-hitter, in June against the A’s. With two outs already recorded in the 9th, he was one good pitch away. (Random aside: In his successful no-no, Clay Buchholz didn’t shake of Varitek once. Curt shook Tek off on that last pitch, certain that the batter, Shannon Stewart, was taking. I will defend Varitek’s pitch-calling to my grave! TO MY GRAVE!)

2. And he can dial it up a notch in the postseason. In four playoff starts, Curt gave up 2 or fewer earned runs in three of them, getting through a full seven innings work in two. His only rough start (5 earned runs in 4.2 innings) came in Game 2 of the ALCS.

3. He makes those around him better. By all accounts, having Curt Schilling in your rotation is like having a second pitching coach on the staff. After Daisuke Matsuzaka’s sub-par start in Game 3 of the ALCS, Curt Schilling took the young hurler aside and gave him some tips on locating his fastball. Can it really be coincidence that Dice-K was much improved in his last two starts in the postseason? With younguns Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz (both 23) joining the rotation next year, Schilling’s wisdom could be a real asset.

4. He’s good in the clubhouse, too. Before Game 5 of the ALCS, when Boston was down 3-1 in the series and was facing the prospect of winning three in a row to keep their season alive, Schilling and David Ortiz called a players-only meeting. Their advice? Take it one game at a time, one inning at a time, one pitch at a time. Simple enough. But it was coming from two guys who could say, “We did one better than this in 2004; we were there; we know what to do.” To the press, Curt Schilling may always be a bit of a blowhard. To the fans, he may always be something of an enigma. But to his teammates, he’s The Guy.

5. You can never have too much pitching. In Boston, we call this the Bronson Arroyo Corollary. Moreover, with another 40+ pitcher almost certainly returning (17-game winner Tim Wakefield, who has a unique contract with Boston where each side mutually decides to re-up his $4 million recurring option), we could very well see a situation in which Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling alternate brief DL stints. As long as the young guys can stay healthy and as long as Curt has enough left when October rolls around, I don’t really care how much time he misses during the regular season.

6. Boston can afford it. The Red Sox have a healthy revenue stream, thanks not only to the deep pockets of the ownership group, but to their 80% ownership of NESN (on which almost all Red Sox and Bruins games are broadcast, as well as popular pregame and postgame shows, and even a reality dating show called Sox Appeal). And let’s face it, Fenway Park is a cash cow—it sells out every game despite having the highest ticket prices in baseball (by far) and every night there isn’t a game, the Red Sox rent it out as the most popular event venue in Boston. When I attended a Scotch nosing (I kid you not) there in September, there were two other events taking place at the same time, and a park official told me they were booked solid straight through the Christmas season.

7. Free agent pitching is scarce this year. Including Schilling, who filed yesterday, the other starting pitchers on the market are Matt Clement (whom Boston will almost certainly not retain), Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, Joe Kennedy, Bob Wickman, Eric Milton, Elmer Dessens, Jason Jennings, Tony Armas, Kip Wells, and Russ Ortiz. Then there’s Bartolo Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, who is coming off two very rough years. There’s Livan Hernandez and Jon Lieber, but neither are what they once were. David Wells is on the market again, but if you’re going to sign an old, chubby guy, why would you pick Wells over Schilling?

8. The Bloody Sock. Need I say more? This man has to end his career with Boston. Lest you doubt his Boston bonafides, consider this: he’s already released a list of teams he’d be willing to go to if Boston doesn’t re-sign him; that list contains every team to make the playoffs this year, except one; and the single, solitary team that Curt doesn’t want to play for is…drum roll please…the New York Yankees. Why? Because, as he’s said in the past, it would mean that everything he did in Boston was a lie.

Curt Schilling is a probable Hall of Famer. And he must go to Cooperstown wearing a Red Sox cap. The Red Sox should cough up the dough.

This may not be a game everyone is interested in playing, but let’s face it: the World Series is over, the Red Sox won, and readers of this particular blog do not need further discussion to know how glorious and awesome the Red Sox are.

Now it is time to focus on the offseason and next year, and Item 1 on the agenda is A-Rod, thanks to the stunt he and Boras pulled last, announcing his opt out during game four of the World Series.

So let’s go ahead and start handicapping where A-Rod might end up…

3-1 New York Mets

Omar Minaya and the Mets are the reigning kings of offering massive, mindblowingly large contracts to whoever are the biggest names on the market at the time - just think back to Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Delgado. Not only can the Mets definitely afford A-Rod already, but they are getting a new stadium and lots of new revenue in 2009. Plus, they’ve shown interest in A-Rod several times in the past, and you know that Minaya is going to want to do something big this offseason to appease the fans and the back pages after the team’s historically epic collapse down the stretch.

5-1: Anaheim Angels of Anaheim

Arte Moreno has shown repeatedly that he is the kind of crazy individual owner that will throw caution to the winds and order the signing of a big-name star to a ridiculous contract that a team under corporate ownership would be less likely to offer. He is much the same sort of gunslinging cowboy owner Tom Hicks was when he signed A-Rod to his last contract in Texas, before Hicks was reined in by his investment partners. Angels attendance and revenue growth have both been phenomenal in recent years, so they can definitely afford A-Rod, and with the way they use their players as interchangable parts, they can easily shuffle people around to make room at third base.

7-1: Boston Red Sox

Flush with even more cash from their World Series victory and facing a possible hole at third base with the free agency of Mike Lowell, it would be easy to imagine the Red Sox going after A-Rod. Although this would definitely anger many Sox fans, a certain subsection of Red Sox Nation has been crying out for the Sox to get A-Rod all season long, and Theo has shown in the past that he is willing to ignore the desires of the fans and go get long-running obsessions like Drew and Lugo. Considering how close the Sox came to acquiring A-Rod in 2004, it would be folly to assume that that option is not in Theo’s mind right now. I still think we are more likely to see Lowell manning the hot corner in Fenway next year, but if he dithers and doesn’t sign pretty much the first contract offer made to him, it might well be A-Rod instead.

9-1 Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are suddenly flush with cash the past few years, having cleverly marketed and leveraged their new ballpark, and owner Mike Illitch has shown that he is not at all afraid to take huge gambles and blow massive amounts of that cash on players nobody else is even trying to sign, such as Magglio Ordonez and his injured knee, or Ivan Rodriguez and his suspect back. Both of those deals worked out rather nicely for Illitch, so if for some reason all the other teams hesitate too long to sign A-Rod due to excessive contract demands or character questions, don’t be surprised if Illitch swoops in and make A-Rod a ridiculous offer even he can’t refuse.

11-1: San Francisco Giants

With Barry Bonds getting the boot, the Giants may well be looking for a new megastar to keep butts in the seats at Pac Bell, er, SBC, er Whatever-it’s-called-now Park. Their overpaying for Barry Zito last year certainly suggests that they are thinking along those kinds of lines. Plus, San Francisco fans have already proven that they are more than willing to embrace a superstar that the rest of the nation hates.

13-1: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are not the first name that usually gets mentioned when people talk about where A-Rod might end up, and he is certainly not the kind of player that you would expect to be popular with the Philadelphia fans, but the Phillies have been on the edge of something big for years now and have been looking for something to get them over the hump, so Philadelphia might actually be the team who would be helped the most by adding A-Rod. The Phillies can definitely afford A-Rod, especially with their still-new stadium and several millions in contracts coming off the books over the next two years (including the $7 million they were still paying to Jim Thome this past season), and they don’t have a strong incumbent at third base (as Wes Helms could easily be shunted to the bench). Plus, as a baseball fan, it would kind of be exciting to see A-Rod added to an infield that already has 3 MVP types in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, creating what would indisputably be the greatest infield quartet ever assembled.

15-1: Houston Astros

Faced with a weak NL Central there for the taking and a gaping hole at third base, the Astros are another team which could really be helped immediately by adding A-Rod. They’ve already shown a willingness to drop ridiculous dollars on big-name star power with their pioneering the whole pro-rated Clemens contract thing, and Drayton McClane is the kind of owner with the actual authority to wake up on the other side of the bed tomorrow morning, decide he wants A-Rod, and make it happen. Plus it’s Texas, and Texans like big things.

17-1: New York Yankees

Common sense says that despite their repeated sworn statements that they would not pursue A-Rod if he opted out, the Yankees are the team that most can afford A-Rod, and perhaps the team that most desperately needs him, given their current state of disarray, so they should therefore eat some crow and humbly go back to the table with Boras. But I don’t think this is going to happen, because guys like Randy Levine and Hank Steinbrenner strike me as a men possessed of large amounts of pride, and not particularly excessive amounts of common sense.

20-1: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers always get mentioned, because we know they can afford A-Rod if they really want to, and plus, they have a huge hole at third base right now. But we have to remember that after the whole JD Drew opt-out thing, Ned Colletti has a huge hate-on for Scott Boras, to the point where he refused to talk to Boras for several months and foolishly didn’t offer Greg Maddux arbitration (thereby losing free draft picks), just because Maddux was a Boras client. Although Colletti has gotten over the worst of his hatred at this point, he is unlikely to have much patience for Boras’s negotiating tactics unless he gets a direct order from Frank McCourt or something.

25-1: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs showed last offseason that they are willing to drop big bucks on free agents. The don’t really have a need at third base, but shortstop has been a black hole for sometime now, so they could try to entice A-Rod with the chance to move back to the premier defensive position on the diamond. That said, one get’s the feeling that the Cubs blew their wad on Soriano last year and especially with the sale of the team getting a lot closer now, they are less likely to give Hendry the free reign to make such a huge financial commitment

30-1 or higher: Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates

Nobody saw the Texas Rangers coming last time, so these four teams are my dark horse candidates this time around. The Orioles have always shown a propensity to make sporatic, unpredictable, and irrational plunges into the free agent market, but what they really need is pitching. The Washington Nationals don’t seem to be getting mentioned much, but they are getting a new stadium in a few years, and might see A-Rod as the perfect guy to have as their centerpiece going into their new digs. The White Sox could probably afford A-Rod, although Kenny Williams has not shown much of a tendency to go after guys like this in the past. I’m throwing the Pirates in here, because the Pirates as an organization are certifiably bat-shit crazy. Nobody has been able to understand what they are doing for the past 15 years, and nobody can ever predict what they are going to do next.