In this week’s Metro column, I boldly made the following claim:

[Manny] Ramirez is arguably the best active player to have never received an MVP award. He’s certainly the best active player to be so consistently snubbed; of similar players, he has the fewest top-five finishes without ever finishing in the top two.

But of course, Manny is far from the only great active player to never take home the trophy, and while I was cogitating about this column, I got to talking about these players with my co-conspirators here at UmpBump. We bandied about some other names of active players who have, amazingly enough, never won an MVP: Gary Sheffield and Jim Thome lead the pack, in my mind, and you could make a case for perennially beloved also-rans Derek Jeter and David Ortiz as well.

Sure, there are fantastic younger guys who haven’t won the trophy yet. But when it comes to the David Wrights, Chase Utleys, and Hanley Ramirezes of baseball, one can say, “Hey, he’s still young.” And there are deserving players who are always a long shot to take home the hardware simply by virtue of their position; most pitchers and designated hitters suffer this fate. (I’ve included Ortiz here on my list of snubs because a) yes, I’m a Red Sox fan and this is my list, you jerks and b) he’s finished in the top 5 of the MVP balloting for the past four years running—a neat trick for any player, even more so considering the entrenched bias among many members of the BBWAA against voting for a full-time DH.)

But with the Sheffs and the Mannys and the Thomes, it’s a different story. You can’t necessarily point to a certain year and say, “This is the year he deserved to win,” but you’re still surprised to learn he’s never gotten the trophy.

Of active players, who do you think is the biggest MVP snub? Anyone going to take a stand for Todd Helton? Or Mike Piazza, still technically active? Any secret Carlos Delgado fans out there?

Who gets your vote?

more at twiigs.com…

It wouldn’t be Spring Training without a few crazy quotes. But the past couple of days have really set a high bar for nuttiness.

First, there’s Manny Being Manny, patting himself on the back for showing up on time to camp for the first time in a while: “I might be late two years in a row, but I’m always on time.” I think he’s just joking. But he said it with a straight face. And with Manny, who knows?

Then there’s Ichiro Being Ichiro: “If the other corner outfielders have too much speed and too much ability and try to do too much, it’s hard for me.” Fortunately, since Ichiro will be flanked by Raul Ibanez and Brad Wilkerson, that shouldn’t be a problem.

But what could be better than Sheff Being Sheff? Yes, Gary Sheffield, always good for a few words, is back and at it again. Discussing his ongoing dispute with his former agent, Scott Boras, he described his experience with the Uber-Agent thus: “Total hell. I shouldn’t have ever introduced myself to him. Period. Bad person.” Sheffield also vowed that no one would be able to stop him from saying more “ugly things” once the case is resolved: “No fine is going to be big enough. No suspension is going to be long enough.” No one puts Sheffy in the corner!

For those of you who missed it (where the hell were you?), last week, we here at UmpBump nominated 27 deserving men to be the first ever recipients of The Douchies, an award that finally recognizes the douchiness of certain individuals employed by Major League Baseball. Close to 500 of you cast a total of 1746 votes in our four categories and I have to say, some of the results were surprising.

So here they are! Your winners of the 1st Annual Douchie Awards!

The Reggie Jackson Award for Best Display of Attention Grabbing is named after a man who has attained mythical stature as an attention-whore during his playing career. He was the forebearer to the modern, preening baseball player, putting the size of the contract ahead of most anything else. This award will be presented to the person who best personified Mr. Jackson’s penchant to run after the spotlight no matter what cost.

And the winner is…

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With all the fun news coming out over the past couple of days, I’ve decided to channel my inner Buster Olney and post some links. In an incredibly haphazard manner.

· Have we really reached a point in our discussions concerning Barry Bonds where columnists can create a completely fictional scenario based upon the imagination of the writer of a Wesley Snipes movie and call it an article? If so, we all should just go home. NEXT UP: If aliens invade San Francisco on the Fourth of July, would Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum save Barry Bonds?

· “When you start with the threats and the guns, that can get out of control” – Gary Sheffield

· Who is less likable - A.J. Pierzynski or this guy?

· I wasn’t surprised to hear that Jonny Gomes was demoted to AAA. Nor was I surprised to hear he threw a fit and reportedly “punctuated his argument by throwing the fan mail that was stacked in his box”. I WAS surprised to hear that Jonny Gomes had fans.

· Little known fact: The Washington Nationals have won 12 of their last 17 games, which does me no favors in my quest to make a convincing argument that the National League isn’t that bad. Especially considering that 2 of those 5 losses came against the Orioles.

· I know this is a little late, but I am currently awaiting word as to whether or not Murray Chass and Nate Silver will go toe-to-toe in a “Buried Alive” wrestling match. My money’s on Chass – how do you kill the undead?

I’m a big believer in the utility of batting average on balls put in play, or BA/BIP, as a means of determining which players are likely to improve or decline over the rest of the season. The theory is that pitchers can only consistently control four things - home runs allowed, walks allowed, strikeouts recorded, and ground ball to flyball ratio. These four statistics show a strong correlation from year to year.

While pitchers can control the number of balls that are put into play (by striking out a lot of guys, or not), what pitchers cannot control is the batting average they allow on balls that are put into play. Similarly, hitters can only control how often they put the ball into play (by not striking out), as well as how many homers, walks, and flyballs vs. groundballs they hit, but not the batting average on those balls they put into play.

This makes sense intuitively, as we often suggest that it was not a pitcher’s fault if ground balls happen to find holes or little flares happen to drop in, just as we sympathize with a hitter who hits laser beams but they just happen to be hit right at a fielder.

Thus using BA/BIP, we can quickly decide which players have been extraordinarily lucky or unlucky with balls falling in or happening to be hit straight at someone. This was how we could tell last year that even though Andre Ethier was leading all major leaguers with a .393 batting average last July, he was not exactly the second coming of Ted Williams, because his batting average on balls put into play was the second best in baseball at the time, which suggested that he was getting extraordinarily luckly with balls dropping in for hits.

Conversely, if a player is doing extremely well or extremely poorly but his BA/BIP is not extra ordinarily high or low, we can assume that he is actually just that good or just that bad.

Looking at some of this year’s performances so far, we can see that Daisuke Matsuzaka has been extremely unlucky. Not only did he come into last night’s game with his team putting up a league low 1.2 runs of support behind him, but he also is in the bottom 10 pitchers in the batting average on balls put in play against him, yielding a .333 average any time an opponent doesn’t strikeout or hit a home run (.290 is about average). It is fortunate that Daisuke gets as many strikeouts as he does or his bad luck so far would have translated into an extremely high ERA.

Similarly, looking at batters, we can see that Gary Sheffield (currently batting .119) is very likely to improve in the near future as he has a second-worst in-the-AL .140 batting average on balls put into play, whereas BJ Upton (.340 avg)  has been extremely lucky, with a staggering, major-league-leading BA/BIP of .536, which means his performance is very likely to decline in the near future.

There is an interesting piece in Slate today (it ran in the Washington Post over the weekend) on the differences between HGH and steroids, and whether or not we should bother worrying about HGH at all.

The author, Daniel Engber, says that using HGH isn’t a very big deal, mostly because HGH hasn’t been proven to enhance performance. From Slate:

At the very least, treatment with HGH does seem to reduce body fat and increase muscle mass. Growth hormone may not lengthen your lifespan, but it can certainly improve your looks. (While HGH isn’t as bad for you as anabolic steroids, it does have some minor side effects.

That doesn’t mean very much for athletes: A chiseled physique won’t help you hit a baseball or throw a punch. So far, no one has been able to connect the increase in lean body tissue caused by HGH with enhancement of athletic performance. Unlike steroids, growth hormone hasn’t been shown to increase weight-lifting ability; in the lab, it has a greater effect on muscle definition than muscle strength. And it doesn’t seem to help much with cardiovascular fitness, either.

So why, if HGH doesn’t make you a better player, do guys risk their paychecks and reputations using it? Engber says, like not stepping on the baseline and not talking to a pitcher during a no-hitter, it boils down to superstition:

The most likely reason that athletes use HGH, though, is superstition. A ballplayer might shoot up with HGH for the same reason we take vitamin C when we have a cold: There’s no good reason to think it does anything, but we’re willing to give it a try. The fact that the major sports leagues have banned growth hormone only encourages the idea that the drug has tangible benefits. Why would they ban something unless it worked?

I don’t know if I agree with Engber’s suggestion that superstition leads players to use HGH. But I do think that players are eager to try anything that will make them faster, stronger and healthier. And I don’t think they spend a lot of time sitting around reading labels or scientific journals.

Exhibit A. J.D. Drew’s explanation for why he spends an hour before game in an oxygen chamber:

To be quite honest with you, I just know it works. I don’t know quite how it works, but it works.

Exhibit B. Gary Sheffield’s reasoning for why the cream he got from BALCO couldn’t possibly have been tainted with steroids:

I know they weren’t tainted. Tell me how rubbing something on me will make you feel any different? That’s the most preposterous thing I’ve ever heard.

Long story short, just because using HGH doesn’t seem like a smart move, doesn’t mean that there aren’t a ton of guys doing it. The question is, should we care?

So there’s some debate over which team came out the better in the first big trade of the offseason. The Yankees sent Gary Sheffield to Detroit for three young pitching prospects (Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Claggett). Yankees fans feel that they should have gotten more for Sheff—”Gary Sheffield for prospects?!” they exclaim.

Meanwhile, the Tigers themselves are suffering from a bit of sticker shock. While Jim Leyland is ecstactic to be reunited with Sheffield, the Detroit team president admitted, “We gave up a lot…I winced.”

So who wins?

In my view, the Yankees came out ahead in this one. (Of course. Is anyone surprised when the Yankees come out the better for a roster move?) I know that New York fans love Sheff. Somehow, despite only being there for a couple of years, he attained coveted “real Yankee” status. However, I think that Yankee boosters who lament this move are letting their vision become clouded by sentiment. First of all, the Yankees didn’t have a spot for Gary in their lineup after they acquired Bobby Abreu. They have plenty of offense without Sheff’s bat. Moreover, Sheffield spent time on the DL this year with an injury to one of his famed wrists, and only played in 39 games. He’s still a feared hitter, but his body is in decline and he’s basically a dried-out husk of his former self. He’s just days away from his 38th birthday. The Yankees were wise to move him while they could still get something for him.

And what did they get for him? Pitching. And what is the one thing no team can ever have enough of? Pitching! Aha! Young pitching? Even better. Young, cheap pitching? Even more better! Sanchez is especially drool-worthy (let’s put it this way: he had more strikeouts than innings last season). And none of the kids involved in the trade had an ERA over 3. I couldn’t help but be reminded of a similar situation faced by the Red Sox earlier this year. At the trade deadline back in July, every player the Sox inquired about came with the same price tag attached: our three young pitchers, Papelbon, Lester, and Hansen. And the Sox, wisely in my view, said thanks but no thanks. Andruw Jones—almost a decade younger than Sheffield—for three hot young pitchers? No deal. (If there’s one lesson the Boston FO learned this year, it’s that you can never have too much pitching.)

But the Tigers have gone and made essentially the same move. Why would they do this? My feeling is that the Tigers had a deep, psychological need—a craving, an urge, whatever—for a big-name power hitter. The got all the way to the World Series this year, dammit, and they want to have World Series-caliber veterans on their team. But this is foolish. How did they get to the Series? By being young, and scrappy. And now they appear to be scrapping scrappy in favor of the same expensive, boring model that everyone else uses. Humbug. 

There’s an argument to be made that no one knows how these young pitching prospects, all righties, will turn out. That’s the gamble you take with younguns. But the thing about Sheffield is, we already know how he turned out. He was good. Very good. For a long, long time. But sooner or later, old ballplayers just…..fade away.

We’ve all drafted teams that would have won fantasy leagues if it weren’t for the injury bug. I know it, you know it. Avoid the madness! I have detailed the highest injury risks fantasy baseball has to offer. Rip off a friend, work a trade, do what you have to do. Just get rid of these players immediately – they will be on the DL by the All-Star break.

BARRY BONDS
Bonds recently passed Babe Ruth for 2nd place on the all-time HR list. His knees are shot, his back is stiff and he has publicly acknowledged that he does not foresee himself passing Hank Aaron. Does he really have anything else to play for? Bonds takes a verbal beating every time that he takes the field, it’s only a matter of time until some psycho throws a needle at him, and the Giants are 3 ½ games out of first place in the NL West. Bonds has been out of the starting lineup an average of once every fives games this season. The well-rounded lashing that Bonds takes on a daily basis will catch up to him…soon.

KERRY WOOD
Sorry Cubs fans, but the curse continues. Despite solid performances in his first two starts after returning from right shoulder surgery, Kerry Wood’s third start had to be pushed back to “give him more rest”. Ummm, shady. Cubs manager Dusty Baker refuses to pitch Wood on less than five days rest. Wood’s curveball embarrasses hitters, but it doesn’t help that he can only throw it 50-80 times before undergoing more shoulder surgery. As long as Wood continues to throw that curve – and he will…he’s a stubborn, swashbuckling Texan – expect DL stints to follow.

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