The latest triumphs and defeats in the UmpBump fantasy league.

Sarah: Alejandro’s Centerfield Stud went head-to-head against my Somerville Green Sox last week, and I decided to talk a little smack right off the bat. “More like Centerfield Dud!” I quipped, prompting Alejandro to reply, “Really? After one day?” But the Green Sox finished just as strong as they started, leading to a 10-2 whupping, winning everything but saves and OBP. (And I came within .005 of taking OBP too.) Not content to rest on my laurels, however, I made some moves to ensure future success. Clayton Kershaw, on whom I used a waiver priority not too long ago, has been banished to the minors and isn’t likely to be recalled in time to be of much use to me. I dropped him and picked up reliever Damaso Marte, who has been pitching well and getting save opportunities with Pittsburgh’s Matt Capps DLed until September. And with Vernon Wells hitting the DL—again!—I picked up Marlins outfielder Cody Ross, who doesn’t have a great OBP (only .316) but who at least hits some homers and is swinging the bat well right now. Hot: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Troy Glaus, David Murphy, J.D. Drew, Ian Kinsler, Justin Verlander, Andy Pettitte, Matt Cain, Pedro Martinez. Not: Brian Wilson, Xavier Nady, James Loney, Stephen Drew.

Alejandro : I knew it. I knew a week like this was inevitable. It was only a matter of time before all the injuries came to back to bite me and sure enough, this week was it. Dan Uggla was AWOL, Chipper Jones was hobbled, and Conor Jackson still can’t shake off the injury bug. I had decent weeks from the rest of the team, but it was no match for the Somerville Green Sox. It also doesn’t help that one of my stud starters, Gavin Floyd, decided to melt in the hot Texas air and give up five runs in 2.2 innings for a very elevated 20.65. Oh and Jon Garland joined in the 20+ earned runs party with 23.63 of his own. But I’m sure the Center Field Stud will put this week behind and keep on surging towards first place. Hot : Carlos Delgado (hot pick-up), Hanley Ramirez, Jermaine Dye (slump breaker), Tim Lincecum (when is he not?), Billy Wagner. Not : Gavin Floyd, Jon Garland, Josh Beckett (9.00 ERA?)

Paul: Dun-de-de-dun-de-de-dun-de-de-dun-dun-duuuun-duuuuuuuuuuuuun! That, my friends, is the theme song to “Bonanza”! I simply cannot think of a tune that more accurately expresses my feeling of victory. I slayed the Swamp Dragons (Doug) by the score of 9-2-1. And he was slimy. Oh yes, he was slimy. My offense did most of the work, winning all six categoties - and the only one that was close was stolen bases. Kevin Youkilis smacked in 10 RBIs (thanks to his 6 RBI game on June 12th), and was matched by Jhonny Peralta. Adam Dunn only got on base four times all week, but they actually all turned out to be dingers, which is nice. And Shane Victorino turned in a finely balanced week - 6 R, 2HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 23 TB, .452 OBP. On the transaction front, I got tired of waiting for Edwin Encarnacion to come around (I really expected him to do well this year) so I dropped him in favor of Marcus Thames, who I was surprised to see was still readily available. On the mound, the pitchers did pretty well although the Swamp Dragons put up a very good fight. Despite a respectable ERA (3.24) and WHIP (1.23), those were the two categories I dropped. Scott Kazmir has slowed down since his torrid start which was bound to happen. Ted Lilly got his junk knocked around violently. But enough guys like the incredibly underappreciated Scott Baker, Cliff Lee, and Justin Duchscherer did their part to limit the damage. And welcome to the National League, C.C. Sabathia! I think you’ll like the hitters in the NL Central just fine. Hot: Kevin Youkilis, Jhonny Peralta, Shane Victorino, Jim Thome, Justin Duchscherer, C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee. Not: Kosuke Fukudome, Scott Kazmir, Ted Lilly.

Coley : Another week, another loss. At least this one was close. Utley’s Firm Quads beat me 7-5. He took all the offensive categories, except for steals, and I took all the pitching categories, except for WHIP and K/BB. And I only lost WHIP by .07. Obviously, I need to add some offense. My .260 OBP this week was sad. At least my team is fast. Josh Hamilton, in addition to knocking in 11 RBI last week, also stole three bases. I saw Hamilton tag up and go from first to second on a fly ball to center during a Cactus League game this spring and it was the fastest I’d seen anyone move in a long time. I think he could probably steal 30 bases a season, if he wasn’t so busy hitting homers and breaking home run derby contest records. Hot : Josh Hamilton, Jack Cust, Rich Harden, Dice-K. Not : Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Carl Crawford, Garry Sheffield.

Standings (games behind):

1. Paul - ElDuquesInjuryReport ( - )
2. Scott - Utley’s Firm Quads ( 9.5 )
3. Alejandro - Center Field Stud ( 11.5 )
4. Kirk - Montefusco’s Revenge ( 15 )
5. Doug - Swamp Dragons ( 16 )
6. Sarah - Somerville Green Sox ( 17 )
7. Ania - Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 24 )
8. Larry - croutchyoldman ( 31.5 )
9. Bryan - Pirates in ‘08! ( 33.5 )
10. Coley - Crunkball All-Stars ( 38 )
11. Caitlin - caitlin grace ( 40 )
12. Sooze - freebase my balls ( 46 )

Batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, is a tool most useful for evaluating pitchers. While batters do show some ability to consistently hit for BABIP above or below league average from year to year, we have almost no evidence that pitchers can control the results of balls put into play against them from year to year. This means that as we approach the end of the first third of the current season, BABIP is useful to help fantasy team owners determine which pitchers are for real and which pitchers are flukes so far.

Looking at pitchers with extreme and utterly unsustainable BABIP stats (over .350 or under .250), we can easily identify 5 pitchers who are performing way above their level, and 5 pitchers who have actually pitched quite well but do not have the stats to show for it. As a fantasy team owner, you should look to trade high on the former, before they inevitably crash back down to earth, and you should look to buy low on the latter, before their luck evens out and their stats return to their actual level of performance.

Sell High - 5 Lowest BABIPs

The chart at right shows the 5 luckiest pitchers in baseball, BABIP-wise.

Shaun Marcum has looked like an ace this season, tossing some absolute gems, such as an 8-inning, 2-hit, 0-run performance against a powerful Indians lineup on May 12, and a near complete game against the even more powerful Rays on May 7. But looking at his ridiculous .194 BABIP tells us that he has actually been the luckiest pitcher in all of baseball, upon which the difference between his 2.64 ERA this season and his 4.24 career ERA prior to this season becomes much more understandable. He’s not worth keeping - trade him if you can.

With a 5-3 record and a sparkling 3.22 ERA this season, Gavin Floyd has White Sox Fans thinking that he is finally blossoming into the ace everyone has long hoped he could become, but his gift-from-the-baseball-gods .198 BABIP suggests that he is actually much closer to the pitcher of prior years who had a career ERA in the high 5’s. Maybe a White Sox fan will bite on him.

Scott Olson has teamed up with Mark Hendrickson to be one of the co-aces of a surprising Marlins team, but Hendrickson has actually been the much better pitcher; Olson’s low BABIP portends an imminent return to mediocrity. Maybe you can get something for him before he crashes and burns.

After a several-year hiatus in the bullpen, Ryan Dempster has made a triumphant return to starting pitching, posting an astonishing 2.56 ERA in 11 starts. But his crazy low BABIP will soon regress, showing Cubs fans why he is just as mediocre a pitcher as he as always been. Sell him off to a Cubs fan now.

Joe Saunders is young and good, but he is not that young, and he is not this good. He’s definitely worth keeping on your team, but lower your expectations the rest of the way. His ERA will probably be in the mid 4’s from here on out.

Buy Low - Guys Who Have Been Unlucky

Here are the five pitchers who have been most snake bitten so far - bloopers falling in or slow rollers finding holes.

Andrew Miller of the Marlins has actually pitched very well this year, but nobody knows it because he has been the unluckiest pitcher in the game so far. He is probably not even owned in your league, so if you need a pitcher, go pick him up. He should give you decent strikeouts, and with that offense and in that park, decent ERA and wins as well the rest of the way.

Bronson Arroyo is another guy who is probably not even owned in your league. But don’t be fooled by his unsightly ERA and WHIP - he is pitching just as well as he did the past two seasons, when he put up near-ace-like numbers.

Ian Snell of the Pirates broke out last year with a strong ace-like season. This year the breakout secretly continues, hidden behind some horrible bad luck. He’s still good, and should be in your fantasy rotation if you can get him.

Ubaldo Jimenez is not as bad as his numbers have shown, but he pitches half his games in Coors Field, and half of the Rockies offense is on the DL right now, so I’d avoid him.

Miguel Batista is still the same old mediocre 4th starter type he’s always been. He’ll turn it around a bit when his luck evens out, but is probably not worth owning except in AL-only leagues, especially with that terrible Mariners defense behind him.

Other guys with low BABIP (Sell, sell, sell!): Daniel Cabrera, Todd Wellemeyer, Tim Redding, Jose Contreras

Other guys with high BABIP (Buy, buy, buy!): CC Sabathia, Andy Pettite, AJ Burnett, Manny Parra