Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin is, we know, a class act with an open mind. But even Conlin can’t resist the chance to say “I told you so,” and this time he’s bragging about just how right he was about Raul Ibanez.

I saw Ibanez play often the past 3 years and didn’t need Pat Gillick to tell me the Phillies were getting one hell of a ballplayer. Yet when I uncurbed my enthusiasm for Raul’s all-around game, despite his age, I was buried by peeved naysayers. “Worse fielder than Pat . . . ” “Horrible arm, can’t run the bases . . . ” “Lacks Pat’s leadership and long-ball threat . . . ” Yadda, yadda, yadda. Weeks and weeks of yadda, yadda and anti-Raul ranting. Maybe it’s too early to say “I told you so,” but, here goes: I told you so. The guy was the Phillies’ best player the first month. Pat Burrell, whose defense also has been perfect, has one homer and 12 RBI for the scuffling Rays.

Baseball Daily Digest’s Bill Baer has already penned an exhaustive post about Ibanez’s performance and what many of us expected, so I’ll spare you the diatribe. But I feel inclined to point out that just because Burrell is off to a slow start in Tampa doesn’t mean he would have started slow had he stayed in Philly. Getting used to a new stadium, a new position and a slightly tougher league isn’t easy. Also, just because Burrell is off to a slow start doesn’t mean he’ll finish slow. He’s a notoriously streaky hitter. Last season, Burrell was the team’s MVP in the first half of the season (.404/.575/.979) and the team’s LVP in the second half (.313/.413/..575). Maybe this year he’ll start slow and finish strong? And maybe Ibanez won’t finish the year with 50 HR and 150 RBI (his current pace). I know that’s going out on a limb, but I think Raul is gonna cool off a bit, at the plate and in the field.

My biggest problem with the contract the Phils gave Ibanez is the length. Ibanez is 37 and Ruben Amaro Jr. gave him a three-year deal. Nobody doubted that Ibanez could continue to cheat time for one more year. Maybe two. But three? If Ibanez is still playing at an elite level when he’s 40, well, I really will owe Amaro and Conlin an apology.

PS. Hey Bill, remember that column you wrote in September of last year when you wished out loud that the Phillies had Gavin Floyd back? You drooled all over Floyd and his 18 wins, neglecting to take into account his unsustainably low babip. How is Floyd doing so far this season? What’s that you say? A 6.29 ERA? An ERA + of 80? Maybe you were wrong about Floyd? Maybe his high win total in 2008 was more luck than skill? Ha ha! Suck it, Conlin! Score one for wishful fan numbers!

Let’s make this Monday a fun day with some links to stuff that other people wrote.

• Jorge Posada thinks the Yankees should keep Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. Fans of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays and Orioles agree.
• Milton Bradley, who leads the league in OBP and is second in batting average and slugging percentage, needs 29 plate appearances over the final 12 games to be eligible as a statistical league leader. He also would reach a $525,000 contract incentive with 27 more plate appearances. He’s missed three of the last four games with a sore left wrist. While Bradley has been a star for the Rangers this season, teams should still worry about his injury history before signing him to a big contract this offseason. And that’s saying nothing about him being, you know, kind of crazy.
• The Braves have the highest on-base percentage, second-highest batting average and third-most runs in the NL since the All-Star break. That tells you something about how bad Atlanta’s pitching has been since the break.
• Another Braves factoid: On Saturday, Atlanta won its first one-run road game in a year. The Braves snapped a major-league record of 29 consecutive losses in one-run road games. The Braves lost their last seven one-run road games in 2007 and all 22 this season before Saturday.
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• Bill Conlin thinks Gavin Floyd would look good on the Phillies right now and points out that Floyd leads the White Sox in victories. There’s no doubt that, if he had it to do over again, Pat Gillick wouldn’t trade Floyd and Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox for an injured Freddy Garcia. But let’s not get too carried away with Floyd’s 2008. Among pitchers with 160 innings pitched, he’s got the second lowest BABIP (.238), behind only Tim Wakefield. So it’s likely Floyd won’t be as good next season.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have fired manager Ned Yost and replaced him with third-base coach Dale Sveum. MLB Trade Rumors thinks the timing is bizarre, since the Brew Crew is currently tied for the wild card lead. But Milwaukee had lost six of seven and four in a row. They had to do something. Plus, Sveum is fun to say.

Last night, the Red Sox beat the White Sox—again—by scoring early and often, just as Alejandro said they could. Even though, as expected, the debuting Michael Bowden left immediately after getting through the fifth, the Red Sox bullpen miraculously gave up no runs! So far, Sarah is 0-for-2.

We’ll see if the White Sox fare better today, as Gavin Floyd takes on Tim Wakefield. I’ll be in the Fens!

The Chicago-Boston series this weekend is a tone-setter for the final stretch of the season, and earlier, Sarah laid out the strategy for how the South Side Sox can take it to the Fenway Sox. It’s a very convincing analysis – that is, unless, the BoSox can get to the ChiSox starters.

Chicago is a team that hits home runs, and they’ll try and score as much as possible from the get-go; a strategy that has worked for the most part. They do lead the league in home runs and they are 3d in runs scored. But they’ve also suffered losses even when scoring big and they’re not a team that’ll come back. Chicago is 11-12 when behind in the second inning, 15-19 in the third, 16-28 in the fourth, and 15-34 in the fifth, anything beyond that and you can almost bet they’ll lose.

They do have 35 comeback wins, but they’ve also blown 26 leads, and their starters have the toughest time getting over the 6th inning: they hold a collective 5.55 era.

Gotta get through those 3d and 4d innings Javy

The ChiSox might score a lot, but they’ll lose some of those games. Just a quick glance at their calendar and we see a 8-7 loss to Kansas City, a 10-6 loss to Minnesota, 10-8 loss to Cleveland, just to name a few.

Although their bullpen has been solid all year, the only reliever with a record over .500 that has pitched in more than 20 games is their closer, Bobby Jenks (and he has three blown saves), which is to say, should the BoSox get to the starter, it’ll be tough for the relievers to limit or hold the damage to allow the Chicago offense to try to get back in the game.

Tonight’s starter will be a tough cookie for the BoSox to figure out. Javier Vazquez is 3-2 with a 3.00 era in August (2-1 1.96 era in the last 3 starts) and he’s pitched 7 or more innings in each one of those, but he does have a sub .500 record, all thanks to his 5.53 era in the 3d inning (and his five long balls in the 5th). If the BoSox get to Vazquez before the 6th, probably by scoring four or five runs, then they’re good.

Tomorrow’s starter, Mark Buehrle has had a very inconsistent season, but the same framework applies. Get to him quick, and he’ll be outta there by the 5th.

Now, Sunday is a different story, as Gavin Floyd has pitched very well all year (14-6, 3.70), but it can’t negate the fact that he’s allowed five or more runs in five starts, one of which came against these very same BoSox.

So what’s the game-plan team? Score early and often.

The latest triumphs and defeats in the UmpBump fantasy league.

Sarah: Alejandro’s Centerfield Stud went head-to-head against my Somerville Green Sox last week, and I decided to talk a little smack right off the bat. “More like Centerfield Dud!” I quipped, prompting Alejandro to reply, “Really? After one day?” But the Green Sox finished just as strong as they started, leading to a 10-2 whupping, winning everything but saves and OBP. (And I came within .005 of taking OBP too.) Not content to rest on my laurels, however, I made some moves to ensure future success. Clayton Kershaw, on whom I used a waiver priority not too long ago, has been banished to the minors and isn’t likely to be recalled in time to be of much use to me. I dropped him and picked up reliever Damaso Marte, who has been pitching well and getting save opportunities with Pittsburgh’s Matt Capps DLed until September. And with Vernon Wells hitting the DL—again!—I picked up Marlins outfielder Cody Ross, who doesn’t have a great OBP (only .316) but who at least hits some homers and is swinging the bat well right now. Hot: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Troy Glaus, David Murphy, J.D. Drew, Ian Kinsler, Justin Verlander, Andy Pettitte, Matt Cain, Pedro Martinez. Not: Brian Wilson, Xavier Nady, James Loney, Stephen Drew.

Alejandro : I knew it. I knew a week like this was inevitable. It was only a matter of time before all the injuries came to back to bite me and sure enough, this week was it. Dan Uggla was AWOL, Chipper Jones was hobbled, and Conor Jackson still can’t shake off the injury bug. I had decent weeks from the rest of the team, but it was no match for the Somerville Green Sox. It also doesn’t help that one of my stud starters, Gavin Floyd, decided to melt in the hot Texas air and give up five runs in 2.2 innings for a very elevated 20.65. Oh and Jon Garland joined in the 20+ earned runs party with 23.63 of his own. But I’m sure the Center Field Stud will put this week behind and keep on surging towards first place. Hot : Carlos Delgado (hot pick-up), Hanley Ramirez, Jermaine Dye (slump breaker), Tim Lincecum (when is he not?), Billy Wagner. Not : Gavin Floyd, Jon Garland, Josh Beckett (9.00 ERA?)

Paul: Dun-de-de-dun-de-de-dun-de-de-dun-dun-duuuun-duuuuuuuuuuuuun! That, my friends, is the theme song to “Bonanza”! I simply cannot think of a tune that more accurately expresses my feeling of victory. I slayed the Swamp Dragons (Doug) by the score of 9-2-1. And he was slimy. Oh yes, he was slimy. My offense did most of the work, winning all six categoties – and the only one that was close was stolen bases. Kevin Youkilis smacked in 10 RBIs (thanks to his 6 RBI game on June 12th), and was matched by Jhonny Peralta. Adam Dunn only got on base four times all week, but they actually all turned out to be dingers, which is nice. And Shane Victorino turned in a finely balanced week – 6 R, 2HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 23 TB, .452 OBP. On the transaction front, I got tired of waiting for Edwin Encarnacion to come around (I really expected him to do well this year) so I dropped him in favor of Marcus Thames, who I was surprised to see was still readily available. On the mound, the pitchers did pretty well although the Swamp Dragons put up a very good fight. Despite a respectable ERA (3.24) and WHIP (1.23), those were the two categories I dropped. Scott Kazmir has slowed down since his torrid start which was bound to happen. Ted Lilly got his junk knocked around violently. But enough guys like the incredibly underappreciated Scott Baker, Cliff Lee, and Justin Duchscherer did their part to limit the damage. And welcome to the National League, C.C. Sabathia! I think you’ll like the hitters in the NL Central just fine. Hot: Kevin Youkilis, Jhonny Peralta, Shane Victorino, Jim Thome, Justin Duchscherer, C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee. Not: Kosuke Fukudome, Scott Kazmir, Ted Lilly.

Coley : Another week, another loss. At least this one was close. Utley’s Firm Quads beat me 7-5. He took all the offensive categories, except for steals, and I took all the pitching categories, except for WHIP and K/BB. And I only lost WHIP by .07. Obviously, I need to add some offense. My .260 OBP this week was sad. At least my team is fast. Josh Hamilton, in addition to knocking in 11 RBI last week, also stole three bases. I saw Hamilton tag up and go from first to second on a fly ball to center during a Cactus League game this spring and it was the fastest I’d seen anyone move in a long time. I think he could probably steal 30 bases a season, if he wasn’t so busy hitting homers and breaking home run derby contest records. Hot : Josh Hamilton, Jack Cust, Rich Harden, Dice-K. Not : Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Carl Crawford, Garry Sheffield.

Standings (games behind):

1. Paul – ElDuquesInjuryReport ( – )
2. Scott – Utley’s Firm Quads ( 9.5 )
3. Alejandro – Center Field Stud ( 11.5 )
4. Kirk – Montefusco’s Revenge ( 15 )
5. Doug – Swamp Dragons ( 16 )
6. Sarah – Somerville Green Sox ( 17 )
7. Ania – Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 24 )
8. Larry – croutchyoldman ( 31.5 )
9. Bryan – Pirates in ‘08! ( 33.5 )
10. Coley – Crunkball All-Stars ( 38 )
11. Caitlin – caitlin grace ( 40 )
12. Sooze – freebase my balls ( 46 )

Batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, is a tool most useful for evaluating pitchers. While batters do show some ability to consistently hit for BABIP above or below league average from year to year, we have almost no evidence that pitchers can control the results of balls put into play against them from year to year. This means that as we approach the end of the first third of the current season, BABIP is useful to help fantasy team owners determine which pitchers are for real and which pitchers are flukes so far.

Looking at pitchers with extreme and utterly unsustainable BABIP stats (over .350 or under .250), we can easily identify 5 pitchers who are performing way above their level, and 5 pitchers who have actually pitched quite well but do not have the stats to show for it. As a fantasy team owner, you should look to trade high on the former, before they inevitably crash back down to earth, and you should look to buy low on the latter, before their luck evens out and their stats return to their actual level of performance.

Sell High – 5 Lowest BABIPs

The chart at right shows the 5 luckiest pitchers in baseball, BABIP-wise.

Shaun Marcum has looked like an ace this season, tossing some absolute gems, such as an 8-inning, 2-hit, 0-run performance against a powerful Indians lineup on May 12, and a near complete game against the even more powerful Rays on May 7. But looking at his ridiculous .194 BABIP tells us that he has actually been the luckiest pitcher in all of baseball, upon which the difference between his 2.64 ERA this season and his 4.24 career ERA prior to this season becomes much more understandable. He’s not worth keeping – trade him if you can.

With a 5-3 record and a sparkling 3.22 ERA this season, Gavin Floyd has White Sox Fans thinking that he is finally blossoming into the ace everyone has long hoped he could become, but his gift-from-the-baseball-gods .198 BABIP suggests that he is actually much closer to the pitcher of prior years who had a career ERA in the high 5’s. Maybe a White Sox fan will bite on him.

Scott Olson has teamed up with Mark Hendrickson to be one of the co-aces of a surprising Marlins team, but Hendrickson has actually been the much better pitcher; Olson’s low BABIP portends an imminent return to mediocrity. Maybe you can get something for him before he crashes and burns.

After a several-year hiatus in the bullpen, Ryan Dempster has made a triumphant return to starting pitching, posting an astonishing 2.56 ERA in 11 starts. But his crazy low BABIP will soon regress, showing Cubs fans why he is just as mediocre a pitcher as he as always been. Sell him off to a Cubs fan now.

Joe Saunders is young and good, but he is not that young, and he is not this good. He’s definitely worth keeping on your team, but lower your expectations the rest of the way. His ERA will probably be in the mid 4’s from here on out.

Buy Low – Guys Who Have Been Unlucky

Here are the five pitchers who have been most snake bitten so far – bloopers falling in or slow rollers finding holes.

Andrew Miller of the Marlins has actually pitched very well this year, but nobody knows it because he has been the unluckiest pitcher in the game so far. He is probably not even owned in your league, so if you need a pitcher, go pick him up. He should give you decent strikeouts, and with that offense and in that park, decent ERA and wins as well the rest of the way.

Bronson Arroyo is another guy who is probably not even owned in your league. But don’t be fooled by his unsightly ERA and WHIP – he is pitching just as well as he did the past two seasons, when he put up near-ace-like numbers.

Ian Snell of the Pirates broke out last year with a strong ace-like season. This year the breakout secretly continues, hidden behind some horrible bad luck. He’s still good, and should be in your fantasy rotation if you can get him.

Ubaldo Jimenez is not as bad as his numbers have shown, but he pitches half his games in Coors Field, and half of the Rockies offense is on the DL right now, so I’d avoid him.

Miguel Batista is still the same old mediocre 4th starter type he’s always been. He’ll turn it around a bit when his luck evens out, but is probably not worth owning except in AL-only leagues, especially with that terrible Mariners defense behind him.

Other guys with low BABIP (Sell, sell, sell!): Daniel Cabrera, Todd Wellemeyer, Tim Redding, Jose Contreras

Other guys with high BABIP (Buy, buy, buy!): CC Sabathia, Andy Pettite, AJ Burnett, Manny Parra