Before the 2007 season began, it wasn’t all that difficult to see that the Indians would be a team that needed to be reckoned with. Despite an unimpressive 78-win season the year before, this was the team whose run differential was a plus 88. They were better than their record had shown. And they went on to win 96 games without any major additions in 2007.

Flash forward to November 2008. The Indians had once again underplayed their run differential to the tune of a .500 record despite scoring 805 runs against 761 runs given up. But things are different. C.C. Sabathia is gone. Travis Hafner looks like a shell of his former self and Victor Martinez’ power disappeared overnight. On the positive end of the spectrum, Grady Sizemore cemented himself as a topflight player and Kelly Shoppach emerged as an offensive threat that made Victor Martinez’s sudden decline easier to swallow. Shin-Soo Choo was no longer just a fun name to recite, but a solid big leaguer who still had notable upside. Not to mention the fact that Cliff Lee surprised everyone and got himself a Cy Young award. With these players, the talent gap between the old guard and the new in Cleveland is not vast at all.

However, they do have areas that require help. For one, it’s actually rather amazing that the Indians scored as many runs as they did with so little production coming from the conventional power positions. The Indians had Ryan Garko and Casey Blake (before he went to LA) at first and third, with Ben Francisco and Franklin Gutierrez in left and right, plus Hafner DHing. Upgrading these positions offensively would not be that difficult under ordinary circumstances. But if you take a look at the first base options on the free agent market, the names do not inspire much confidence aside from Mark Teixeira — and the third basemen are worse. With Pronk and his contract entrenched at the DH spot, signing players not named Teixeira would mean a defensive downgrade that may not be worth the offensive upgrade and the financial commitment that would go with it.

And herein lies the problem with having a DH who struggled as badly as Hafner did in 2008. This year’s free agent market is full of all-bat-no-glove type players whose value would be maximized by only utilizing them for offensive purposes – Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Frank Thomas, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, etc. With his contract (guaranteed $51.75MM over the next four years), a team like the Indians, whose payroll hasn’t hit $80MM per year since 2001 (and is often well below that mark) do not have much choice but to keep giving Pronk a shot. Yes, he was injured for much of 2008 and certainly, his poor performance can partly be attributed to it. But his 2007 season wasn’t very good either and players like Hafner age quickly. Long story short, I don’t think we’ll ever see him perform at his previous levels ever again. Only a repeat of his 2007 campaign would be a realistic goal.

Moving on to other topics, there’s been talk of moving Jhonny Peralta to third base which doesn’t sound like such a bad idea. But this would obviously depend on who would replace him at short. And Peralta’s bat profiles as average at the hot corner and doesn’t do anything to improve their lineup power. Unless the Tribe shell out the money to bring in Rafael Furcal, it’s probably best to keep Peralta at short for the time being.

On the pitching side, players who have as big a statistical leap as Cliff Lee had last season tend to come back down to earth – not that his “earth” is all that bad. As long as his low walk total wasn’t a total fluke, Lee should remain a very good player. And to counteract this drop, Fausto Carmona can be expected to be better. No one had foreseen Carmona’s performance in 2007. By the same token, no one foresaw such a poor follow-up year. The real Fausto Carmona should be somewhere in the middle, which still makes him an above-average pitcher. The Tribe can also expect the return of Jake Westbrook from Tommy John surgery sometime in the summer and he should be a positive addition to the rotation. In the meantime, rookie Scott Lewis (who made his debut in September) should get the chance to earn a full time spot along with fellow young arms Aaron Laffey, Anthony Reyes, and Jeremy Sowers.

Their bullpen could use some help as well. Currently, their best relievers are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis. In addition, top prospect Adam Miller is expected to be on an innings-limit making him a reliever for most if not all of 2009. And while he had a terrible season, Rafael Betancourt is a better pitcher than his 2008 numbers indicate. But Perez is the only lefty of the bunch so they could use one more.

But their primary focus should really be to boost the offensive production coming from their corner positions. Ben Francisco, Ryan Gutierrez and Ryan Garko are probably not going to cut it if the Indians want to overtake the White Sox for the division crown. Giving Choo more at-bats would probably be a cheap and worthwhile option. I would also argue that Kelly Shoppach’s value is never going to be higher than it is right now and ought to be shipped out to one of the many teams who’d love an offensive upgrade at the catcher spot in exchange for a viable third baseman (Red Sox perhaps?).

All in all, I like the Indians’ chances in 2009. But much of it is going to rest upon the bats of Hafner and Victor Martinez. If their 2008 season wasn’t a fluke, then much of what they accomplish this offseason will most likely be moot.

- What They Need Index -

You might have seen Nick, Coley, and Sarah’s MVP picks already. If not, then you probably should. Because only then will you be able to appreciate how much better mine are.

Call me VORPy. I believe that “most valuable” means that you were the best in that year. I do not think it’s rational to expect great players to be able to turn turd-ish teammates into 30HR-threats. And I like pie.

So please keep all of these things in mind as I take my crack at my list of MVP-worthy players in the AL and NL. And if any hate mail results from this, I will not read it unless it is accompanied by a slice of pie.

American League

#4: Dustin Pedroia – I don’t know if I have a bias for or against Pedroia. For one, he’s a Red Sox which is a negative (ducking as Sarah justifiably takes a digital swing at my head across the vast world of the interwebs). On the other hand, he’s about my size and as such is totally relatable. Plus, as a former second baseman myself, I appreciate how deftly he handles the position. So I think those two irrational sides cancel each other out. What we’re left with is a guy tied for sixth in AL Win Shares and third in Runs Created despite the fact that he plays a skill position.

#3: Roy Halladay – In a year where no AL hitter distinctively separated himself from the pack, I think it’s only right to recognize what Halladay did. Although Cliff Lee beat him for the ERA and Wins titles, Halladay was right behind him. But what puts Doc over the top is how well he performed over so many innings. His 2.78 ERA is only fully appreciated when one considers the fact that Halladay threw 22.67 more innings than any other pitcher in the AL. That’s over three more games total than Lee who’s second on that list. I don’t know about you, but I like the idea of having a guy with such a low ERA pitching instead of a crappy bullpen. How’s that for value? It should also be mentioned that Halladay finished third in strikeouts, fifth in hits allowed per nine, third in walks per nine, and of course, racked up Complete Games.

#2: Joe Mauer – It’s not just that he has a “very pretty” OBP. He led the AL in Win Shares. I don’t know when was the last time a catcher accomplished this. And while it may be odd for an MVP-candidate to have less than 10 HRs, the man still slugged .451 playing half his games in the Metrodome, which was one of the worst places for hitters in 2008. And with his second batting title in three years, he’s now the first catcher in the American League history to win two of those. The first catcher to win one AL batting title was, of course, Joe Mauer in 2006. Plus, Mauer also led the league in WPA (Win Probability Added) and led all catchers in defensive Win Shares this year as well.

#1: Grady Sizemore – Is there anything this man can’t do well? Power (sixth in HRs), plate patience (third in walks), base stealing skills (38 SBs in 43 attempts), and defense (4th in Revized Zone Rating among CFers and second in Out of Zone plays made). Add it all up and you get just a great centerfielder who finished fourth in Win Shares and second in VORP, which doesn’t even counting his strong defensive contributions.

National League:

#4: Carlos Beltran – If you think that I did a top 4 instead of a top 3 just so that I can get Beltran on this list (say it with me in your best Ed McMahon voice!), you – are – co-rrrrect, sir!!! I’m actually beginning to worry about my propensity to blabber on about this guy. Despite his HR total being lower this year, he still hit well enough to finish in the top 10 in VORP, Runs Created, and extra-base hits. He was third in Win Shares and sixth in walks. And we haven’t even begun to talk about his baserunning skills and defense in center. Although he was only 7th in Revized Zone Rating among NL CFers, he more than makes up for it by easily making the most Out of Zone plays (seriously, it’s not even close).

#3: Lance Berkman – I think it’s odd how little attention has been paid to the Big Puma. Top-5 in BA, OBP, SLG, Runs Scored, Adjusted OPS, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits, and in doing all this also ended up with the most Win Shares in the National League. Played a great first base to boot. It’s really not his fault that Brad Ausmus OPSed BELOW .600. He was a player having a great season on a mediocre team.

#2: Hanley Ramirez – This one hurts. How could I possibly put Han-Ram over Beltran? He deserves it, that’s why. Offensively, Ramirez had a similar season as he did in 2007 – a bit better in OBP, a bit worse in SLG. Didn’t come all that close in SBs, but increased his homerun output. But what I appreciated most about him this year was how much better he had become defensively. His Revised Zone Rating improved dramatically from .773 to .840 (god-awful to very good), and was seventh in Out of Zone. Last year, the only knock I had on him was his defense. Now, I got nothing. He hit 33 HRs. No other shortstop in MLB came close (Hardy was second with 24). He OPSed .940. No other shortstop was even within .100 points of the guy. He’s undoubtedly the best SS in baseball.

#1: Albert Pujols – I know. Ho-hum. But no matter how contrarian I may want to be sometimes, there’s just no way I can deny Pujols this. And that’s all I have to say about that.

Nick and Coley have already given you their MVP picks. Here are mine:

First, the American League. The runners-up:

Grady Sizemore. Smart stats love this guy, despite his crappy average this year: he was second in the AL in VORP and first in Runs Created. He also tied for fifth in homers. But it was all wasted because the Indians were so bad. Oh well.

Carlos Quentin. Let this be a lesson to him next time he wants to break his wrist to spite his bat (or whatever).

Aubrey Huff. If David Ortiz can’t win it as a DH, then Huff won’t. But you know, he finished 4th in the league in VORP, 5th in OPS and RC, and 3rd in SLG. I just thought I’d mention it, because unless you live in the 21201area code, you might have missed it.

Kevin Youkilis. Tell me if I’m wrong, but I think he was the only guy to finish in the top ten in VORP, RC, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That’s pretty badass. Plus, he plays gold-glove worthy first base and can easily slide across the diamond to play third. Heck, you can even stick him in the outfield. Terrible facial hair, though.

But there can be only one winner, and that person is…..

Dustin Pedroia. No, he’s not the trendy pick–at least, not among the baseball eggheads who are sick of hearing about the Red Sox and their annoyingly good players and just plain annoying (but devoted!) fans. (Screw you too, jerkface!) But Pedroia had 73 extra-base hits this year (including 17 HR) this year to Joe Mauer’s* 44 (including 9 HR). Mauer, the catcher, has 1 stolen base and 1 caught-stealing. Pedroia, no real speedster, has 20 stolen bases and was also caught once. (How did he do that if he doesn’t have real wheels? The old-fashioned way: using his brain.) Pedroia led the league in runs, tied for first in hits (213), came in second by just .004 .002 [edit: after game 163] in batting average, finished third in runs created (while Mauer finished 18th there), and was fourth in total bases (with Mauer tied for 33rd). Pedroia also finished third in the AL in VORP (to Mauer’s 7th-place finish) behind Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore, whose teams failed to make the playoffs this year. He played in 157 games and quietly drove in 140** runs while playing an acrobatic second base and energizing a team that suffered demoralizing injuries to their ace pitcher, cleanup hitter, and 2007 World Series MVP—while also coping with the tantrum and subsequent ouster of their most productive hitter. Without Dustin Pedroia, does anyone seriously think the Red Sox would have even made the playoffs? He’s been just as important to their playoff drive as Mauer*** was to the Twins’–and what’s more, he had a better year than Mauer. Case closed.

* I feel obligated to bring up Mauer here because so many people seems to be picking him over Pedroia, not least my colleagues at UmpBump. And look, I’m not one to undervalue a catcher’s contribution to the team, ever. But I honestly don’t know why we’re seriously talking about Mauer for MVP this year at all. (Yes, nice OBP. Very pretty. Well done. Now run along, and try to reach double digits in homers next time.)

**Now, anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I tend to pooh-pooh RBI as a stat, but keep in mind the context here: Mauer ranked 21st in MLB in RBI opportunities. Pedroia ranked 40th. But Mauer somehow finished with just 85 RBI to Pedroia’s 140. And those who would tout Mauer’s admittedly admirable ability to take a walk, I’d like to point out that despite this ability, Mauer grounded into 21 double plays–four more than the contact-prone Pedroia. And it’s not like Pedroia just swings at anything; he’s even a bit tougher to strike out than Mauer.

***To me, it’s a wash whether it’s more “valuable” to keep your team from failing when everyone expects them to succeed or to help your team succeed when everyone expects them to fail.

On to the NL. First, the doomed-to-fail runners-up:

Ryan Howard. As Coley pointed out, he led the NL in both homers and RBI, and his team did make the playoffs. But I include him only out of a feeling of obligation.

Hanley Ramirez. As Nick pointed out, he’s the young player every GM and fantasy owner would love to have. He carried the Marlins through a surprisingly good year. His time will come.

Lance Berkman. He had a great year–114 runs scored, second in RC, third in OPS and OBP, fourth in VORP. He also had 29 homers and, somewhat surprisingly, 18 steals. But the funny thing is, there are so many guys ahead of him on the home run list–Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Delgado, etc and etc–that his great year just isn’t good enough.

Chipper Jones. Now here‘s an AVG and OBP worth writing home about: .364 and .470, respectively, plus he was one of only two players in the NL to OPS over 1.000.

And yet there is only one clear winner here. And that is the other guy to OPS over 1.000. Who is…

Albert Pujols, despite his crappy team (hey, they would’ve won the NL West!), he clearly deserves the NL MVP and it’s not even close. He’s first in VORP, first in RC, first in OPS, second in OBP, and [yawn] first in SLG. Really, the guy is sick. There’s just nothing more to say.

Here is my take on who should be the National League and American League MVPs this year. Unlike Alejandro, I am not trying to guess who will actually be named MVP. Rather, I have tried to decide who actually is the most valuable player in each league. Also, I have offered up my top five picks for each league, because that’s just the generous type of guy I am.

National League

5. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros

Has anybody been more valuable to the Houston Astros over the past three years? You could make a case for Roger Clemens, but the fact is that if you took Clemens’ bloated salary and actually signed some offensive players, the Astros probably would have won a World Series by now, instead of losing 2-1 whenever Clemens pitches. But the fact is that over the last three years, whenever Berkman is hurt, the Astros lose, and lose horribly, but as soon as Berkman is back in the lineup, the Astros zoom back into contention. This year, Berkman is rather quietly having the best year of his career. He is third in the National League with 126 runs created, and is on pace to set career highs in home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage.

4. Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cinncinati Reds

The Reds surprised everyone by contending for most of the season, and that fact is almost entirely due to the Wayne Krivskey’s brilliant acquisition of Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena. The Reds have always had tons of offense but have never had any pitching, particularly starting pitching. That is, until Bronson came along and significantly exceeded his career norms to pitch like a Cy Young candidate and give the Reds a legitimate stopper every five days or so. Plus, Bronson quickly became a team leader and showed himself to be an absolute gamer, demanding the ball in the biggest games and volunteering to pitch on three days rest on several occasions. Many people think that the MVP should go to the player who was most valuable to his team, and if that is truly your criterion, it would be very hard not to give the award to Arroyo.

3. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers

A 23-year-old rookie, Russell Martin wasn’t called up from the minor leagues until May, but he has been an absolute godsend to the Dodgers, and I can say with absolute certainty that the Dodgers would not be anywhere near contention now if not for his presence. When Martin was called up, Dodgers catchers had only thrown out one runner in about 30 attempts as teams ran wild on 80-year-old Sandy Alomar Jr., and limp-armed Dioner Navarro. But then Martin came on and has thrown out an amazing 32 percent of basestealers. Martin has also been an oldschool workhorse behind the plate, catching 104 out of 124 games since his callup, and once even catching a Sunday day game immediately after catching all 15 innings of an extra-inning Saturday night game. Despite being a complete rookie who came straight from double-A, Martin has also impressed everyone with his veteran-like leadership behind the dish, once telling Derek Lowe he would not leave the fucking mound until Lowe calmed the fuck down, and drawing rave reviews from no less than the great Greg Maddux himself, who says of Martin, “He has very good baseball sense…If you can’t throw to this guy, you can’t throw to anybody.” But perhaps most importantly of all, Martin has been the only real clutch hitter and leader-type on a team full of introverted types like Nomar, Jeff Kent, and J.D. Drew, serving as the voice of the team to the media despite being a rookie and hitting several huge, David-Ortiz-like late inning homers down the stretch. I don’t think anybody but me will even put Martin on their MVP ballot at all, but the numbers to back it up are astonishing. When Martin catches, the Dodgers are 64-42, 22 games over .500. When anyone else catches, the Dodgers are 16-31, 15 games under .500. Sounds like a pretty damn valuable player to me.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

Every year, the Cardinals get worse and worse, and yet every year they still win the NL Central, because every year Albert Pujols gets better and better. The guy is an absolute beast, leading the entire major leagues in OPS and slugging. Considering the still ascending trendline in his season stats from year to year, it is truly scary to think that we may not even have seeen what King Albert is truly capable of yet. But he was not the most valuable player in the league this year.

1. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies

I once said that the only way the Phillies could make the playoffs was if Ryan Howard hit 40 home runs in August and September. Howard has done just about everything he could do except that, and the Phillies, once dead in the water, are now only half a game out of the wild card. Looking at the numbers, Ryan Howard leads the major leagues with 144 runs created this year, and a ridiculous 10.00 runs created per 27 outs. This means that a team of nine Ryan Howards would score 10 runs every game. And while I generally don’t put much stock in traditional statistics, sometimes you just have to gawk at them and let your mouth hang open when you see that Howard is on pace for 61 homers and 149 RBI. As much as I was hoping to have an uncoventional pick for NL MVP, I have to go with the crowd on this one, because, let’s face it, is there any player in the entire National League that you would rather have had on your team this year than Ryan Howard? I think the answer is clear.

American League

5. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians

If Travis Hafner hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury that cost him all of September, he would have forced his way into serious contention for the MVP award, despite the fact that the Indians won’t make the postseason. Simply put, when Hafner played this year, he was the most devastating hitter in all of baseball, delivering a staggering 10.31 runs created per 27 outs, puting the NL’s Ryan Howard a distant second among major leaguers with 10.00 RC/27. Even with the injury, Hafner was still a tremendously valuable player for the Indians this year, putting up dazzling numbers of .308/.439/.659 to go along with 46 homers, 100 runs, and 117 RBI – all this in only 5 months of play.

4. Johan Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins

It is clear that Johan Santana is the best pitcher on the planet right now, which makes him a pretty darn valuable player. Although his stellar projected numbers of 19-6, 2.79, and 256 Ks certainly bring him to the fringes of the MVP discussion, they are not quite amazing enough to put him over the top. Whereas someone like Pedro Martinez in 1999 clearly deserved to be MVP (even though he was snubbed), the cult of the 100-pitch-count limit has made it increasingly difficult for a pitcher to put up the kind of truly dominant numbers that could lead to MVP consideration. Still, it’s scary to contemplate what kind of numbers Santana would have put up this year if he hadn’t suffered from a case of WBC disease in April, when he started off the year 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.

3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians

Quick, which player is second in the American League to only David Ortiz in runs created this season? You can easily be forgiven if you didn’t know that it was Grady Sizemore before reading this post. Sizemore has had an absolutely amazing season, and is on pace for 136 runs, 55 doubles, 27 home runs, and 75 RBI out of the leadoff spot. Plus, unlike most of the other players on these lists who are first-basemen or DH’s, Sizemore plays one of the all-important “skill positions” up the middle, where he contributes a lot more on the defensive side with his outstanding defense in centerfield. Sizemore has also maximized his value to his team with his durability, playing in every single Indians game so far this season. It is no wonder that the most popular item of apparel among young women this season at Jacobs Field is the jersey that says “Mrs. Sizemore” on the back.

2. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox

David Ortiz continues to leave the door open to speculation that he is some sort of freakish alien from outer space, as he finishes off a season even more ridiculous than the last two, leading the American League in runs created, breaking the Red Sox record for homers, and getting ever more implausible game-winning clutch hits. I am not sympathetic at all to the contention that the MVP should never go to a DH, especially when one of those DH’s is the guy who made sabermetricians rethink the idea that there is no such thing as clutch hitting. If Ortiz had somehow lifted the Red Sox to the postseason on the sheer force of his will, I think everyone would have conceded the point, but that has not happened, and Ortiz has slumped a bit down the stretch to the point where it once again enters the conversation that he does not contribute any runs prevented on defense, has Manny Ramirez hitting behind him, and plays in a very hitter friendly park.

1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

To truly measure a player’s value, you have to take into account how easy it would be to replace his production with other players. The fact is, far too many first-basemen win MVP awards, because even though first basemen tend to put up huge offensive numbers, they don’t contribute many runs prevented on defense and it is relatively much easier to find another hard-hitting first-baseman than another, oh I don’t know, say, a hard-hitting catcher. Check this out: Joe Mauer as of this writing has created 100 runs for his team. As a catcher. That is an amazing number for any player, but when you consider all the other value Mauer brings to his team as an outstanding catcher, his offense catapults him into MVP territory. We are talking about a catcher who is batting .345 and slugging .500, and is only 23 years old. Basically, we are seeing a young Mike Piazza offensively, only whereas Piazza was a terrible defensive catcher, Mauer not only contributes on defense, but is in fact a dominant defensive catcher, throwing out nearly 40 percent of would-be basestealers and fielding at a .995 clip. So he’s really more like a combination of the best traits of a young Mike Piazza and a young Ivan Rodriguez. Because he puts up a .950 OPS and dazzling defense at a position that is otherwise thought of as an offensive wasteland, or else a tradeoff between offense or defense, Mauer is literally irreplaceable. If you were going to start an expansion team and you could pick any player to build your team around for the future, you would pretty much have to pick Joe Mauer. But he is already the most valuable player in the American League, even now.