If you read his column, you know ESPN’s Buster Olney regularly links to pieces by sportswriters all over the country.

Today, Olney writes, “Bill Conlin wonders why there is not more support for Tim Raines.”

I read that and I thought, “No way.”

As a rule, Conlin and I don’t agree. He thinks Jimmy Rollins is better than Derek Jeter. I don’t. He thinks the Phillies were smart to sign Raul Ibanez to a three-year deal. I think they’ll regret it by year three, if not sooner. Conlin thinks modern statistics are just “wishful fan numbers.” I think numbers are valuable.

So when I read that Conlin, unlike a majority of Hall of Fame voters, supports Raines’ candidacy, I was shocked. Finally, some common ground! Maybe Bill and I weren’t so different after all?

Then I read his column.

It turns out that while Conlin supports Raines, he didn’t actually vote for him. Not this time.

From the Daily News:

It is simply not fair to keep placing your bet each year on candidates who simply have not been as highly regarded by your BBWAA colleagues as a man you consider worthy of a vote. I voted for Tim Raines his first year of eligibility. But when he failed to get 25 percent of the vote, he was moved to the back burner. Sorry, that’s just the way it has to be.

Who did Bill vote for this year?

You can only vote for a maximum of 10 players. I checked six names on my ballot and have never voted for more than six. Three are guys who have been knocking on the door and need to be affirmed by the BBWAA before they wind up being passed onto a dazed and confused veterans committee that last year honored World War II second baseman Joe Gordon. I voted for two pitchers, Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris, whose numbers look a lot better now that the 300-game winner is being excised from history by the pitch-countniks, and The Hawk, wonderfully talented rightfielder Andre Dawson.

From the impressive list of ballot virgins, I voted for Alomar, Martinez and McGriff. I’m already feeling guilt for not giving a nod to Gallaraga. Next year.

Tim Raines, if you’re reading this, please understand — it’s not that Conlin thinks you don’t belong in the Hall. He just doesn’t want to waste one of his six votes on a guy who doesn’t have a chance of getting voted in, unless that person’s name is Fred McGriff. Even though, technically, Conlin gets 10 votes. But he’s never voted for more than six, you see, and if he went over that self-imposed limit the world would spin off it’s axis.

I’d like to think that this kind of illogical thinking about HOF voting is unique to Conlin, but it’s pretty clear that lots of voters employ similarly arbitrary rules, to the detriment of deserving candidates like Raines, Alomar, and Blyleven.

This year UmpBump continues its annual tradition of honoring the greats by casting our vote for who we think deserves to be enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. As always, we vote not just on players currently eligible for Hall of Fame voting under baseball’s arcane eligibility rules, but for any and all players retired at least five years and not currently in the Hall of Fame.

In 2008, we inducted Goose Gossage into the UmpBump version of the Hall of Fame, and last year, we inducted Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines. Although Raines is not yet in the real Hall, since he’s already in our Hall we didn’t include him in the voting this year, although judging from the number of UmpBump voters who put him on their ballot anyway as a sign of solidarity, we gladly would have voted him in again this year.

Voters this year included Umpbumpers Sarah, Alejandro, Zvee, Paul, Coley, and Nick, and distinguished guest voters Melissa, a longtime UmpBump reader, and Tyler Hissey, editor of the blog “Around the Majors.”

Here are this year’s results, in order of total number of votes received:

Roberto Alomar – 7
Barry Larkin – 6
Bert Blyleven – 5
Ron Santo – 5
Shoeless Joe Jackson – 4
Pete Rose – 4
Alan Trammell – 4
Andre Dawson – 3
Edgar Martinez – 3
Mark McGwire – 3
Buck O’Neill – 3
Fred McGriff – 2
Jack Morris – 2
Dick Allen – 1
Harold Baines – 1
Albert Belle – 1
Dwight Evans – 1
Gil Hodges – 1
Minnie Miñoso – 1
Dale Murphy – 1
Ted Simmons – 1
Lou Whitaker – 1
Maury Wills – 1

With 8 voters, this years UmpBump Hall of Fame enshrinees are Roberto Alomar with 87.5% of the vote, and Barry Larkin, just edging in with exactly 75% of the vote.

Edgar Martinez, who many consider a sure bet for eventual enshrinement, only got 3 votes from on his first year of eligibility, perhaps a sign of the mild distaste for the DH that many of us seem to share.

Bert Blyleven and Ron Santo just missed again, but held steady at the 5 votes they received last year. Andre Dawson, however, plummeted from 5 votes last year to 3 votes this year, which may not bode well for his future chances at gaining entry to the UmpBump Hall.

Meanwhile, Joe Jackson, Pete Rose, Alan Trammell, Mark McGwire, and Buck O’Neill all gained ground from last year.

See you next year!

UmpBump Hall of Fame Inductees by Year

2010 – Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin
2009 – Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines
2008 – Goose Gossage

To my mind Barry Larkin is a stone cold lock for the Hall of Fame, even though there are probably enough people with short memories or who are just not paying attention among the BWAA to insure that he doesn’t get in this year.

Larkin had the complete package. An outstanding hitter with an .815 career OPS and a 116 OPS+ at a position where offense is at a premium, he was also no slouch with the glove, was always talked about as one of the better defenders in the league, and even won three gold gloves once Ozzie Smith retired.

Plus, Larkin was outstanding on the basepaths, averaging 28 stolen bases per 162 games, and thus, with his .371 on-base percentage including a career-high .410 in 1996, Larkin was not only one of the best shortstops of his era, but also one of the best leadoff men.

The one knock against Larkin, in my view, is that he had some struggles staying healthy and on the field. Nevertheless, he managed to remain a starting shortstop in the major leagues from age 23 until his final season, at age 40 (when he put up a very respectable line of .289/.352/.419 and made the All-Star team), and his games played totals look worse than they should because two of his prime seasons were cut short by strike.

Of course, many people are comparing Larkin in their minds to guys like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, but Larkin played half his career in the non-steroid era whereas A-Rod is a confirmed steroid user, plus people seem to forget that A-Rod will have played well over half his career as a third baseman and not a shortstop.

As for Jeter, even if Derek Jeter retired today he is already in the top five shortstops of all time. Barry Larkin was better than about half the shortstops currently in the Hall, and is almost certainly in the top 10 of all time. He deserves to be in.

But what really seals it for me, even more than the numbers, is Larkin’s reputation at the time he played. I still remember back when Larkin signed his last big contract with the Reds in the 2000 offseason, everyone kept referring to him as “future hall-of-famer Barry Larkin.” At that time, pretty much everyone in the game thought of him as a lock for the Hall, yet somehow, in the ensuing 10 years, people have somehow forgotten Barry Larkin’s greatness, and he has somehow become not so much of a lock.

Given the eye-popping, steroid-fueled numbers of those ensuing 10-years, it kind of makes sense, but it also makes no sense at all, since we all know a lot of those numbers were created unnaturally. Barry Larkin needs to be remembered in the context of his times, in which he was the best shortstop in all of baseball for about 5 years, the best in the National League for almost a decade, and among the top 3 or 4 for his entire career.

Today, Buster Olney writes about Chipper Jones’ defensive struggles and says:

Chipper Jones says he might retire if he has another season like this one, writes David O’Brien. Remember, he just signed a three-year, $42 million extension, which runs through 2012. Yes, he is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

That last line — Yes, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer — jumped out at me. Jones is the man. I’m a huge fan. But I’m curious if everybody else is convinced that Jones is Cooperstown-bound.

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The other day I was walking around the house, reveling in the latest Phillies victory, and spouting off to my fiancee Suz about how great Chase Utley is when she asked me, “Is he going to the Hall of Fame?”

I told her that Utley got a bit of a late start, that he didn’t play his first full season in the bigs until he was 26, and that would make it hard.

But then I did a little more research, and now I think Utley’s got a better than average shot at Cooperstown.

I realize this discussion is ridiculously premature. Utley could break his leg tomorrow and never be the same again. But it’s a Monday morning and debating Utley’s HOF chances is better than the alternative — real work.

My argument boils down to this: over the last 4.5 seasons, Utley has played his position better than any second baseman in the modern era, save Joe Morgan. And Utley gives even “Little Joe” a run for his money.

Dave Cameron says, “Utley is so far and away the best offensive second baseman in the game, it’s ridiculous to even consider anyone else.” Cameron made that statement in the context of Utley’s ridiculously high WPA/LI, a stat developed by Tango Tiger that measures win probability added, giving extra credit to players who come through in “clutch” situations, when the game is late, or close, or when there are runners on base.

Moreover, Hall of Fame voters, unless they get sophisticated in a hurry, probably won’t consider Utley’s WPA/LI when they assess his career.

But they won’t need to.

Here’s what you’d need to know, if you were looking at Utley’s HOF case right now: Utley has a 162-game-average of 30 HR, 109 RBIs and 109 runs, to go with a .298/.380/.529 line. That’s better than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. It’s even better than Morgan, though we’ve got to give Joe credit for averaging 45 steals per season (and Biggio swiped a few bags himself, topping out at 50).

Now, it’s important to note that Sandberg, Alomar and Biggio stuck around way past their prime, while Morgan played 22 seasons without ever declining much. And Utley’s career numbers will probably dip as he gets older. However, neither Sandberg or Biggio put up Utley-esque numbers, even in their primes.

There’s no doubt that we’re watching a Hall-worthy hitter, at least when you compare him to second basemen past and present. Can he keep it up? I dunno. His age is working against him. But at 30, Utley is having perhaps his best season and is showing no signs of decline.

On defense, Utley is almost as good as he is with the bat. Over the last four seasons, the Phillies’ second baseman has put together the following Ultimate Zone Ratings: 17.8, 9.2, 15.7, and 20.2. Last season, his +/- score was so high that Cameron says “it almost certainly contains a good bit of noise that isn’t actually measuring Utley’s real defensive value.” In other words, it was too good to be true. Still, Cameron conservatively estimates that Utley was 20 runs better than an average second baseman in 2008, and John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, says Utley is reinventing how second base is played by positioning himself close to first base against left-handed pull hitters:

[I]n general, the key appears to be that he is moving closer to first base against lefties than virtually any other second baseman in baseball. BIS Video Scouts, who watch every game and chart nearly everything you can imagine, have said the same thing. Utley has a strong tendency to position himself towards hitters’ pull side.

Here on Umpbump, we tend to focus on stats (and unfortunate facial hair and hot baseball wives), but it’s a fact that Hall of Fame voters look at more than numbers, so I would be remiss if I didn’t point out a few of Utley’s intangibles:

• Every season, he’s hit by a pitch more than any other player. This may ultimately be Chase’s undoing, as his unwillingness to dodge the inside fastballs has already resulted in a broken hand and time on the DL. But you’ve got to admire his fearlessness.
• As his +/- numbers show, Utley is an intelligent player. The other night, I watched him position himself for a pick-off throw in such a way as to totally block the runner’s path back to the bag. Little things like that help make him a better defender than more athletic guys like Brandon Phillips.
• He plays his best in big situations. Who could forget the seventh inning of the championship clincher for the Phillies, when he made a brilliant pump-fake to first to bait the Rays’ Jason Bartlett to go home, then made a strong throw to get the go-ahead run at the plate? Clutch.
• World F******* Champs. Utley spends the better part of seven seasons spouting Crash Davis cliches, cementing a reputation as the worst interview in sports, then he busts out the soundbite of the century.

Look, I know I’m more than a little biased, as a life-long Phillies fan. I know Utley is probably gonna need another 3-5 productive seasons before he’s seriously discussed as a Hall of Famer.

But while I was once quick to dismiss Chase’s HOF chances, I’m now of the opinion that he’s got a decent shot. He’s a great second baseman. End of discussion.

Rob Neyer says yes. Jayson Stark says yes.

Three World Series rings. 214 career victories. 83 complete games. Three 300-strikeout seasons. The highest postseason winning percentage of all time (.846) for a starter with more than six postseason decisions. The best strikeout/walk ratio of any pitcher in the modern era.

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I don’t mind contrarians. Hell, I am one. But Bill Price at the New York Daily News has just taken things a bit too far, then stopped, took a look around, took a couple more steps, and then sprinted out of sight and into the horizon.

As UmpBump's Zvee Geffen notes, Jeff Kent looked a lot like an older Haley Joel Osment yesterday.

In his running column entitled “The Bitter Bill” (get it?), he wrote about the retirement of Jeff Kent – more specifically, his candidacy for the Hall of Fame.

Let me say first that I can deal with people who argue that Kent’s not a Hall of Famer. I’ll disagree with them and not-so-secretly judge them if they ever do make the claim, but I can live with it.

But for the love of Catfish, please show me that you have an ounce of understanding about baseball before you put your argument in print:

But I say Kent cannot be looked at as a second baseman, especially in this day and age where middle infielders all over baseball are putting up numbers usually posted by outfielders and third baseman.

Wait. I know we just started, but wait. So Kent wasn’t a second baseman? Then what the hell do you call that guy who stands near second base on the right half of the diamond? Because that’s where Kent used to stand around fielding grounders and stuff. And someone should also tell Price that first basemen can hit too. And there’s really no comparison between the numbers that they put up and those that middle infielders do. Check it out. You might learn something.

We have to start judging players – other than catchers – as all part of the same pool.

By this logic, we can put Ryan Howard at shortstop. You’ll hardly notice the difference, Phillies fans!

Is Nomar Garciaparra a Hall of Famer because he put up big numbers at shortstop?

No. No one who understands that a player has to play to be in the Hall of Fame has said that Nomar is a Hall of Famer.

Kent was never a great fielder. He had to hide somewhere and most teams chose to put him at second base.

This is precisely the moment when my mind exploded. You can hide someone by putting them at second base? Are you sure you meant to write this? Who in their right mind can give this man a job as a sportswriter? How are you more successful at your job than I am at mine?

Also, Kent played in the steroids era, so all of the numbers from that time have to be judged on some sort of scale. 600 homers may have to be the new 500 homers.

Yay! I love arbitrary numbers! So if 600 is the new 500, then that means that each homerun hit these days is worth .833 of one hit pre-steroids, right? Which gives Kent (in pre-steroid value)… 314 homeruns… Which is still the most ever hit by a ‘guy who stands between first and second base’. By 32 homeruns. You should really think before you write, Bill. Or did you mean 700 is the new 500? Maybe 721?

And while Kent’s numbers may have gotten him into the Hall of Fame 10 years ago, they are comparable to several other players who will be retiring soon or have already retired and likely won’t ever get in.

(Mind racing. Trying to think of other middle infielders whose careers can compare to Kent’s…)

Albert Belle has more homers (381) than Kent. Is he a Hall of Famer?
Gary Sheffield has more homers (499), hits (2,615) and RBIs (1,633) than Kent. Is he a Hall of Famer?

Clearly, I’ve wasted my time even thinking.

Andres Gallarraga (399), Dale Murphy (398), Joe Carter (396), Jason Giambi (396), Vlad Guerrero (392), Graig Nettles (390), Dwight Evans (385), Harold Baines (384), Larry Walker (383) and Matt Williams (378) all have more homers than Kent.

But… They’re not second basem…

Plus, in the next few years, plenty of guys with over 450 HRs will start to retire. Just how many players will the writers put in each year?

Has this guy ever seen a game of baseball? I mean, he does know that Home Run Derbies are just once a year right? And that in real games, things like “hits”, “doubles” and “walks” count too?

It should be interesting. I just want to know if Kent will go in as a Met if he makes it.

I’ll let you know, Bill. I’ll be sure to let you know. So for now, rest easy and not pay attention to sports again for a while.Because clearly, you’ve gotten away with it so far.

NOTE: Ken, dak and Junior… Please don’t sue me for this post. And come back.

NOTE PART DEUX: Hat tip to Rob Neyer for the article.

I know we have that badass Delicious widget over there on the upper right corner now, but I thought I’d offer an old-fashioned reading post as we cruise towards the weekend:

• First the Mets had to fight a PR scandal over their new Citi Field, after Citi got bailed out by the American taxpayer (said taxpayer was none too thrilled that the naming rights for said stadium had cost $400 million). Now the team is assuring everyone that they are not, repeat, NOT for sale, even though ownership lost money in Bernie Madoff’s bizarre Ponzi scheme. Sounds exhausting.
• On WEEI.com: Rob Bradford has a fantastic piece where Dan Duquette talks about scouting — and drafting – Mark Teixeira, only to have Tex choose Georgia Tech instead.
• Craig Calcaterra: the “new Yankee Stadium is built on a foundation of graft.” Really, it’s like right out of Tammany Hall — the higher the land was valued, the more tax-free bonds the Yankees would get; so when the Yanks didn’t like the original valuation of the land, the city officials obligingly bumped it up from $27 million to $204 million. I wonder if there’s any connection to this article from last week’s New York Times: “Tax Shelter Helps Yankees Afford Those Big Salaries.” Any accountants out there want to do the math for me?
• In other Yankees news, I found this opening line unintentionally hilarious: Like a holiday shopper, the Yankees are carefully mulling how to spend their cash. In case you haven’t heard, this has been a disappointing holiday shopping season — to say the least — for retailers. Yet the Yankees have already spent more than $240 million on just two pitchers and are now considering a “hard push” for Manny Ramirez, including a rumored 3-year offer of as much as $75 million. That’s a lot of “careful mulling,” for sure.
• How crazy is this Rafael Furcal deal? I volunteered to cover MLBTR for the evening and spent the night updating this post. I think I have whiplash, now.
• Bobby Jenks gives a really interesting interview explaining why he doesn’t throw 100mph all the time anymore — because, he says, that’s his strategy. “Anyone can time 100 mph if they see it enough…My strikeouts are down, yes, but my pitch efficiency is higher than ever and my walks are down. I’m getting hitters swinging early in the counts, and when they get behind, I can put them away.” In other words, he’s not throwing…he’s pitching.
• Joe Posnanski takes a look at the Hall of Fame ballot and handicaps who’ll get in — and thinks Jim Rice will make it this time (even though Posnanski himself won’t be voting for him).
• Speaking of the HOF, HOFer Ryne Sandberg is moving up to AA — as a manager, that is. He’s been with the Cubs-affiliated Single-A Peoria Chiefs for the past two seasons, but will join the Double-ATennessee Smokies this season. Just another reason why this year’s minor league road trip will have to take in the Smokies!
• Speaking of minor league road trips, Deadspin has just noticed that the Buffalo Bisons have an ungrammatical name, which is something that my pal Rachael pointed out during the Bulls-Bisons game we watched in Durham in July. (I, on the other hand, took that moment to exclaim, “OH, the Buffalo BISONS — I GET IT NOW!“)

What did I miss?