Today, Buster Olney writes about Chipper Jones’ defensive struggles and says:

Chipper Jones says he might retire if he has another season like this one, writes David O’Brien. Remember, he just signed a three-year, $42 million extension, which runs through 2012. Yes, he is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

That last line — Yes, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer — jumped out at me. Jones is the man. I’m a huge fan. But I’m curious if everybody else is convinced that Jones is Cooperstown-bound.

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The other day I was walking around the house, reveling in the latest Phillies victory, and spouting off to my fiancee Suz about how great Chase Utley is when she asked me, “Is he going to the Hall of Fame?”

I told her that Utley got a bit of a late start, that he didn’t play his first full season in the bigs until he was 26, and that would make it hard.

But then I did a little more research, and now I think Utley’s got a better than average shot at Cooperstown.

I realize this discussion is ridiculously premature. Utley could break his leg tomorrow and never be the same again. But it’s a Monday morning and debating Utley’s HOF chances is better than the alternative — real work.

My argument boils down to this: over the last 4.5 seasons, Utley has played his position better than any second baseman in the modern era, save Joe Morgan. And Utley gives even “Little Joe” a run for his money.

Dave Cameron says, “Utley is so far and away the best offensive second baseman in the game, it’s ridiculous to even consider anyone else.” Cameron made that statement in the context of Utley’s ridiculously high WPA/LI, a stat developed by Tango Tiger that measures win probability added, giving extra credit to players who come through in “clutch” situations, when the game is late, or close, or when there are runners on base.

Moreover, Hall of Fame voters, unless they get sophisticated in a hurry, probably won’t consider Utley’s WPA/LI when they assess his career.

But they won’t need to.

Here’s what you’d need to know, if you were looking at Utley’s HOF case right now: Utley has a 162-game-average of 30 HR, 109 RBIs and 109 runs, to go with a .298/.380/.529 line. That’s better than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. It’s even better than Morgan, though we’ve got to give Joe credit for averaging 45 steals per season (and Biggio swiped a few bags himself, topping out at 50).

Now, it’s important to note that Sandberg, Alomar and Biggio stuck around way past their prime, while Morgan played 22 seasons without ever declining much. And Utley’s career numbers will probably dip as he gets older. However, neither Sandberg or Biggio put up Utley-esque numbers, even in their primes.

There’s no doubt that we’re watching a Hall-worthy hitter, at least when you compare him to second basemen past and present. Can he keep it up? I dunno. His age is working against him. But at 30, Utley is having perhaps his best season and is showing no signs of decline.

On defense, Utley is almost as good as he is with the bat. Over the last four seasons, the Phillies’ second baseman has put together the following Ultimate Zone Ratings: 17.8, 9.2, 15.7, and 20.2. Last season, his +/- score was so high that Cameron says “it almost certainly contains a good bit of noise that isn’t actually measuring Utley’s real defensive value.” In other words, it was too good to be true. Still, Cameron conservatively estimates that Utley was 20 runs better than an average second baseman in 2008, and John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, says Utley is reinventing how second base is played by positioning himself close to first base against left-handed pull hitters:

[I]n general, the key appears to be that he is moving closer to first base against lefties than virtually any other second baseman in baseball. BIS Video Scouts, who watch every game and chart nearly everything you can imagine, have said the same thing. Utley has a strong tendency to position himself towards hitters’ pull side.

Here on Umpbump, we tend to focus on stats (and unfortunate facial hair and hot baseball wives), but it’s a fact that Hall of Fame voters look at more than numbers, so I would be remiss if I didn’t point out a few of Utley’s intangibles:

• Every season, he’s hit by a pitch more than any other player. This may ultimately be Chase’s undoing, as his unwillingness to dodge the inside fastballs has already resulted in a broken hand and time on the DL. But you’ve got to admire his fearlessness.
• As his +/- numbers show, Utley is an intelligent player. The other night, I watched him position himself for a pick-off throw in such a way as to totally block the runner’s path back to the bag. Little things like that help make him a better defender than more athletic guys like Brandon Phillips.
• He plays his best in big situations. Who could forget the seventh inning of the championship clincher for the Phillies, when he made a brilliant pump-fake to first to bait the Rays’ Jason Bartlett to go home, then made a strong throw to get the go-ahead run at the plate? Clutch.
• World F******* Champs. Utley spends the better part of seven seasons spouting Crash Davis cliches, cementing a reputation as the worst interview in sports, then he busts out the soundbite of the century.

Look, I know I’m more than a little biased, as a life-long Phillies fan. I know Utley is probably gonna need another 3-5 productive seasons before he’s seriously discussed as a Hall of Famer.

But while I was once quick to dismiss Chase’s HOF chances, I’m now of the opinion that he’s got a decent shot. He’s a great second baseman. End of discussion.

Rob Neyer says yes. Jayson Stark says yes.

Three World Series rings. 214 career victories. 83 complete games. Three 300-strikeout seasons. The highest postseason winning percentage of all time (.846) for a starter with more than six postseason decisions. The best strikeout/walk ratio of any pitcher in the modern era.

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I don’t mind contrarians. Hell, I am one. But Bill Price at the New York Daily News has just taken things a bit too far, then stopped, took a look around, took a couple more steps, and then sprinted out of sight and into the horizon.

As UmpBump's Zvee Geffen notes, Jeff Kent looked a lot like an older Haley Joel Osment yesterday.

In his running column entitled “The Bitter Bill” (get it?), he wrote about the retirement of Jeff Kent – more specifically, his candidacy for the Hall of Fame.

Let me say first that I can deal with people who argue that Kent’s not a Hall of Famer. I’ll disagree with them and not-so-secretly judge them if they ever do make the claim, but I can live with it.

But for the love of Catfish, please show me that you have an ounce of understanding about baseball before you put your argument in print:

But I say Kent cannot be looked at as a second baseman, especially in this day and age where middle infielders all over baseball are putting up numbers usually posted by outfielders and third baseman.

Wait. I know we just started, but wait. So Kent wasn’t a second baseman? Then what the hell do you call that guy who stands near second base on the right half of the diamond? Because that’s where Kent used to stand around fielding grounders and stuff. And someone should also tell Price that first basemen can hit too. And there’s really no comparison between the numbers that they put up and those that middle infielders do. Check it out. You might learn something.

We have to start judging players – other than catchers – as all part of the same pool.

By this logic, we can put Ryan Howard at shortstop. You’ll hardly notice the difference, Phillies fans!

Is Nomar Garciaparra a Hall of Famer because he put up big numbers at shortstop?

No. No one who understands that a player has to play to be in the Hall of Fame has said that Nomar is a Hall of Famer.

Kent was never a great fielder. He had to hide somewhere and most teams chose to put him at second base.

This is precisely the moment when my mind exploded. You can hide someone by putting them at second base? Are you sure you meant to write this? Who in their right mind can give this man a job as a sportswriter? How are you more successful at your job than I am at mine?

Also, Kent played in the steroids era, so all of the numbers from that time have to be judged on some sort of scale. 600 homers may have to be the new 500 homers.

Yay! I love arbitrary numbers! So if 600 is the new 500, then that means that each homerun hit these days is worth .833 of one hit pre-steroids, right? Which gives Kent (in pre-steroid value)… 314 homeruns… Which is still the most ever hit by a ‘guy who stands between first and second base’. By 32 homeruns. You should really think before you write, Bill. Or did you mean 700 is the new 500? Maybe 721?

And while Kent’s numbers may have gotten him into the Hall of Fame 10 years ago, they are comparable to several other players who will be retiring soon or have already retired and likely won’t ever get in.

(Mind racing. Trying to think of other middle infielders whose careers can compare to Kent’s…)

Albert Belle has more homers (381) than Kent. Is he a Hall of Famer?
Gary Sheffield has more homers (499), hits (2,615) and RBIs (1,633) than Kent. Is he a Hall of Famer?

Clearly, I’ve wasted my time even thinking.

Andres Gallarraga (399), Dale Murphy (398), Joe Carter (396), Jason Giambi (396), Vlad Guerrero (392), Graig Nettles (390), Dwight Evans (385), Harold Baines (384), Larry Walker (383) and Matt Williams (378) all have more homers than Kent.

But… They’re not second basem…

Plus, in the next few years, plenty of guys with over 450 HRs will start to retire. Just how many players will the writers put in each year?

Has this guy ever seen a game of baseball? I mean, he does know that Home Run Derbies are just once a year right? And that in real games, things like “hits”, “doubles” and “walks” count too?

It should be interesting. I just want to know if Kent will go in as a Met if he makes it.

I’ll let you know, Bill. I’ll be sure to let you know. So for now, rest easy and not pay attention to sports again for a while.Because clearly, you’ve gotten away with it so far.

NOTE: Ken, dak and Junior… Please don’t sue me for this post. And come back.

NOTE PART DEUX: Hat tip to Rob Neyer for the article.

I know we have that badass Delicious widget over there on the upper right corner now, but I thought I’d offer an old-fashioned reading post as we cruise towards the weekend:

• First the Mets had to fight a PR scandal over their new Citi Field, after Citi got bailed out by the American taxpayer (said taxpayer was none too thrilled that the naming rights for said stadium had cost $400 million). Now the team is assuring everyone that they are not, repeat, NOT for sale, even though ownership lost money in Bernie Madoff’s bizarre Ponzi scheme. Sounds exhausting.
• On WEEI.com: Rob Bradford has a fantastic piece where Dan Duquette talks about scouting — and drafting – Mark Teixeira, only to have Tex choose Georgia Tech instead.
• Craig Calcaterra: the “new Yankee Stadium is built on a foundation of graft.” Really, it’s like right out of Tammany Hall — the higher the land was valued, the more tax-free bonds the Yankees would get; so when the Yanks didn’t like the original valuation of the land, the city officials obligingly bumped it up from $27 million to $204 million. I wonder if there’s any connection to this article from last week’s New York Times: “Tax Shelter Helps Yankees Afford Those Big Salaries.” Any accountants out there want to do the math for me?
• In other Yankees news, I found this opening line unintentionally hilarious: Like a holiday shopper, the Yankees are carefully mulling how to spend their cash. In case you haven’t heard, this has been a disappointing holiday shopping season — to say the least — for retailers. Yet the Yankees have already spent more than $240 million on just two pitchers and are now considering a “hard push” for Manny Ramirez, including a rumored 3-year offer of as much as $75 million. That’s a lot of “careful mulling,” for sure.
• How crazy is this Rafael Furcal deal? I volunteered to cover MLBTR for the evening and spent the night updating this post. I think I have whiplash, now.
• Bobby Jenks gives a really interesting interview explaining why he doesn’t throw 100mph all the time anymore — because, he says, that’s his strategy. “Anyone can time 100 mph if they see it enough…My strikeouts are down, yes, but my pitch efficiency is higher than ever and my walks are down. I’m getting hitters swinging early in the counts, and when they get behind, I can put them away.” In other words, he’s not throwing…he’s pitching.
• Joe Posnanski takes a look at the Hall of Fame ballot and handicaps who’ll get in — and thinks Jim Rice will make it this time (even though Posnanski himself won’t be voting for him).
• Speaking of the HOF, HOFer Ryne Sandberg is moving up to AA — as a manager, that is. He’s been with the Cubs-affiliated Single-A Peoria Chiefs for the past two seasons, but will join the Double-ATennessee Smokies this season. Just another reason why this year’s minor league road trip will have to take in the Smokies!
• Speaking of minor league road trips, Deadspin has just noticed that the Buffalo Bisons have an ungrammatical name, which is something that my pal Rachael pointed out during the Bulls-Bisons game we watched in Durham in July. (I, on the other hand, took that moment to exclaim, “OH, the Buffalo BISONS — I GET IT NOW!“)

What did I miss?

Continuing an annual tradition we began last year in this space, we here at UmpBump cast our ballots this year for who we think should be in the Hall of Fame who is not yet in.

The rules were simple: elect anyone you want, with no restrictions. Just like the real Hall, players who appear on at least 75 percent of all ballots cast are considered elected to the UmpBump version of the Hall of Fame. The voters consist of the main UmpBump contributors Alejandro, Coley, Sarah, Nick, and Paul in addition to three guest voters.

This year’s guest voters were our good friend, occasional guest poster, and loyal UmpBump commenter Melissa, the inimitable Kensai, who authors one of the very best Dodgers blogs on the web, Fire Ned Colletti Now, and the illustrious Dan Rosenheck, who writes for the New York Times and The Economist.

Here are the results of the balloting (names with number of votes received):

Rickey Henderson – 8
Tim Raines – 6
Bert Blyleven – 5
Andre Dawson – 5
Ron Santo – 5
Dwight Evans – 3
Mark McGwire – 3
Dick Allen – 2
Ross Barnes – 2
Bill Dahlen – 2
Joe Gordon – 2
Gil Hodges – 2
Joe Jackson – 2
Grant Johnson – 2
Sherry Magee – 2
Don Newcombe – 2
Jim Rice – 2
Pete Rose – 2
Ted Simmons – 2
Dave Stieb – 2
Alan Trammell – 2
Deacon White – 2
Harold Baines – 1
John Beckwith – 1
Charlie Bennett – 1
Pete Browning – 1
Bert Campaneris – 1
David Concepción – 1
Will Clark – 1
David Cone – 1
Bob Caruthers – 1
Darrell Evans – 1
Wes Ferrell – 1
Bill Freehan – 1
Jack Glasscock – 1
George Gore – 1
Bobby Grich – 1
Heinie Groh – 1
Stan Hack – 1
Paul Hines – 1
Keith Hernandez – 1
Charley Jones – 1
Jim Kaat – 1
Charlie Keller – 1
Cal McVey – 1
Dick Lundy – 1
Minnie Miñoso – 1
Dobie Moore – 1
Graig Nettles – 1
Alejandro Oms – 1
Buck O’Neil – 1
Johnny Pesky – 1
Billy Pierce – 1
Lip Pike – 1
Rick Reuschel – 1
Hardy Richardson – 1
Bret Saberhagen – 1
Reggie Smith – 1
Jimmy Sheckard – 1
Joe Start – 1
Harry Stovey – 1
Ezra Sutton – 1
Quincey Trouppe – 1
Lou Whitaker – 1
Maury Wills – 1
Jimmy Wynn – 1

As we can see from these results, this year UmpBump unanimously elected Rickey Henderson, who appeared on 100 percent of the 8 ballots cast. This is not surprising, as Rickey looks likely to challenge Tom Seaver’s record for percentage of votes received on the real Hall ballot this year. Tim Raines also edged into our verson of the Hall this year, appearing on exactly 75% of ballots cast (6 out of 8).

Also giving strong showings were Andre Dawson, Ron Santo, and Bert Blyleven. Dawson held steady from last year at 5 votes, while Santo and Blyleven made progress, both jumping up from 3 votes to 5. Mark McGwire and Dwight Evans also made up ground, moving up to 3 votes from 2 and 1 last year, respectively.

Several players who received significant support from UmpBumpers last year did not even get one vote this year. Players who got at least two votes last year but none this year included Jack Morris (4 votes last year), Tommy John (3), Roger Maris (3), Rod Beck (2), Albert Belle (2), Don Mattingly (2), Dale Murphy (2), Luis Tiant (2), and Joe Torre (2).

Earlier this week, Umpbump reminded you about where we stand on the Hall of Fame candidates. Here’s what some other folks on the internets are saying about the eligible players:

• Joe Posnanski examines the merits of each and every Hall of Fame inductee in an attempt to better understand … something. He must have been an unbelievably hyper child.
• Baseball Think Factory alerts us to another great minor league gimmick. The Golden Baseball League (GBL) announced today that they have offered professional baseball superstar Rickey Henderson $1M if he elects to be enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown as a San Diego Surf Dawg. Henderson played the entire 2005 season for the San Diego Surf Dawgs in the inaugural season of the Golden Baseball League. I don’t want to throw cold water on the Surf Dawgs, but last I checked players were no longer allowed to choose which cap they wear on their HOF plaque.
• Fox Sports’ Tracy Ringolsby chastises Rickey Henderson for not knowing when to hang up his cleats, saying, “From the Mets to the Mariners to the Padres to the Red Sox and Dodgers, Henderson put on an uncharacteristic performance. The last three years he struck out more than he walked for the first three times in two decades. His hit a paltry .228. He stole a total of only 72 bases, a figure he had surpassed in seven single seasons.” Why you gotta focus on the negative, Tracy?
• The Hardball Times’ Tom Tango makes his case for Tim Raines induction by comparing him to the best leadoff hitters already in the HOF.
• Boy of Summer thinks Harold Baines is not a Hall of Famer. Rob Neyer agrees. But MLB.com’s Scott Merkin thinks Baines belongs. Here’s my favorite line from Merkin:

Clutch hitting for Baines, who turns 50 on March 15, led to an amazing 1,628 RBIs despite only topping the 100-RBI plateau in 1982 (105) and 1985 (113) with the White Sox, and with Baltimore and Cleveland in 1999 (103).

As Neyer points out, Baines wasn’t particularly clutch. His impressive RBI total is due more to longevity — Baines played until he was 42. And good for him. But sticking around a long time doesn’t get you into the Hall of Fame. If it did Jamie Moyer would be a first ballot lock.

• LoHud Yankees Blog says older players should be judged by outdated statistics: “Nobody cared about on-base percentage in the 70s and 80s. Rice’s job was to swing for the fences. But now we know OBP matters. But Jim Rice can’t get in the DeLorean and take more pitches because it would make the Baseball Prospectus guys respect him more.”
• Athletics Nation’s Baseballgirl says she is feeling more forgiving of Mark McGwire lately, and wonders if BBWAA members feel the same.

Today, the Hall of Fame sent out the 2009 ballots. New names on the ballot include Rickey Henderson and a bunch of other guys. Here at Umpbump, we’ve never been shy about supporting or damning eligible HOF players. Here’s a reminder of what we’ve written about some of the leading candidates, as well as some more up-to-date views.

On Jim Rice

Nick: “[I]f Jim Rice is a Hall of Famer, than there are probably at least a hundred other guys with better careers than Rice who should go in too. For a guy who was a left fielder, who hit in the middle of incredible lineups, and who demonstrably got a huge boost from playing half his games in Fenway Park, Rice has no place in the Hall of Fame. People keep trying to argue that Rice was the best outfielder in the American League during his prime. But I’m not sure that Rice was even the best outfielder on his own team during those years, because Dwight Evans, who was one of the better defensive outfielders of all time, did just about everything equal to or better than Rice. Well, except pile up RBI, which was just a function of where Rice was penciled into the batting order anyway.”

Paul: “[W]e need to pose the question – Would Jim Rice have been a Hall of Fame caliber player if he were not drafted by the Boston Red Sox? … If we cannot penalize him for being a Red Sox (which I have no interest in doing), then we can’t credit him for it either…. During the games where Rice didn’t have the pleasure of hitting in Fenway, an argument could be made that Andy Van Slyke was a better player (since Andy played a more demanding position). Now that’s nothing to scoff at ordinarily since Van Slyke was a very good player – but he’s no Hall of Famer.”

Sarah: “In ‘77, ‘78 and ‘79, he was in his prime. He hit more than 35 homers in each of those three years, while also collecting over 200 hits — the only major-league player to ever accomplish that feat…In fact, though Rice is now remembered as a lead-footed, perennially injured slugger, he was actually possessed of the rare ability to hit for both power and average. Though his lifetime batting average of .298 and 382 total home runs may not look like much on their own, look at them together and the impact is powerful: out of all retired players, Rice ranks tenth in terms of batting average and homers. Needless to say, those players (Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams) are all in the Hall of Fame.”

On Tim Raines

Nick: “I understand all you New York-based writers never noticed Raines because he played all those years in Montreal while you guys were too busy noticing Yankees and Red Sox like Jim Rice. But shouldn’t you at least take a look at his career numbers? Did any of the people who didn’t vote for Raines even consider that he was a superior player to former stolen base king and present Hall of Famer Lou Brock in just about every way imaginable? … I mean seriously. A .385 on base percentage? 808 stolen bases, 4th all time in the modern era behind only Henderson, Brock, and Ty Cobb? The highest stolen base percentage in baseball history at 84.7%?”

On Jack Morris

Nick: “Morris’s career ERA is high for a hall of famer, but that’s about the only reason I could see to keep him out. The man was the ace of every team he ever pitched on, including four World Series squads, and outdueled John Smoltz in the greatest game in World Series history. If the Hall of Fame is all about stats (which it is clearly not), then he could be kept out, but if it is about fame and glory, there has to be a place for Jack Morris, who was the greatest starting pitcher of the 80s.” I’ve changed my mind on Jack Morris, so I can no longer stand by this Jack Morris quote.

Coley: “1. Win Shares are a good stat. But they’re not all-important. There are HOF pitchers with fewer Win shares than Morris. Bruce Sutter had 168! 2. Morris never won a Cy Young, but he came darned close. He finished fifth or better in the Cy voting five times. He led the league in wins twice and in strikeouts and complete games once. He was a five-time all-star. And nobody won more games in the 1980s. 3. Yeah, his ERA was high. But his career ERA was inflated by a couple of rough years (1988-1990). You know what Morris did in 1991? He won 21 games and posted an ERA of 3.43. That’s HOF perseverance, baby!” I’m off the Morris bandwagon, too. I think Morris was a very good pitcher, the kind of guy it was easy to root for. But he was probably more hype than substance. All Star game appearances and Cy Young votes are nice, but those awards are highly subjective.

Paul: I don’t think Jack Morris belongs in the Hall. So what if he won the most games in the 1980s? Couple that with his ERA and what do you get? One lucky pitcher who was never consistently among the best.

On Andre Dawson

Nick: “The first 16 years of Andre Dawson’s career are virtually identical to the entire 16 years of Jim Rice’s, except that Dawson stole 318 bases to Rice’s 58, won 8 gold gloves to Rice’s zero, and hung around a few more years to hit 56 more home runs than Rice. Dawson was a complete player, whereas Rice was a one-dimensional slugger.”

On Mark McGwire

Paul: “Let me get one thing straight – I do not believe that McGwire was clean, and depending on the mood, may ridicule anyone who tries to insinuate otherwise. Which I guess puts me in the camp of people who think that a) steroid testing came far too late, b) we will therefore never know who was or wasn’t using, c) there’s no way that the town of Cooperstown or the Museum itself will lock out all those who played in the “steroids era”, so d) the Hall must admit all the elite players of their times, regardless of how loud the whispers may be. Let’s take this step-by-step.”

Sarah: “He was the most famous slugger of his era because of illegal steroids. He was one of the most intimidating physical presences in sports history because he took banned substances. He broke an untouchable record by injecting substances that gave him an unfair advantage. He hit 245 homers in a four year span by taking drugs. He finished seventh on the all-time home run list by relying on Slugger’s Little Helper. He made 12 All-Star Teams because he gained an unfair advantage over other players. In fact, every one of Big Mac’s Hall qualifications goes directly to his use of illegal PED’s. Unlike Barry Bonds, who likely would have been a Hall of Famer even without the drugs, Big Mac only achieved what he did BECAUSE of the drugs. And isn’t inducting him actually tantamount to endorsing drug use…?”

Nick: “I am starting to think that maybe if a player were to come clean, 100%, and take full responsibility for his mistakes (and I don’t mean the Andy Pettite “I only did it once and it wasn’t even wrong” thing), then maybe we should consider them for the Hall. Because players coming clean in an honest and humble way would be the best hope for healing the sport and moving forward. But until Mark McGwire comes clean, and there’s no sign that he ever will, I will keep rooting for them to keep him out of the Hall forever.”

On Ricky Henderson

Bill James: “If you could split (Rickey Henderson) in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers.”

What you said

Last year, we asked Umpbump readers who they would vote for and here’s what they said.