Albert Pujols is not your NL MVP

Today, Rob Neyer says let’s not anoint Pujols just yet, and poses the following question:

Maybe Pujols really is the best player in the National League. He probably is. But there’s a .365-hitting shortstop with power, playing for a contending team. Shouldn’t we at least take a deep breath and think a few thoughts?

Don’t worry, Rob. I’m on it.

The MVP Award is always tricky, because nobody can agree on the best way to measure “value.” One very good way to measure value is to look at a player’s wins over replacement, and his contribution to overall team WAR.

Let’s do this thing.

We’ll start with Pujols, whose WAR is 6.4, which represents 22 percent of the Cardinals WAR.

Then there’s Chase Utley, whose WAR is 6.8, which represents 22 percent of the Phillies WAR.

Finally, there’s Hanley Ramirez. Behold, the Marlins WAR pie. As you can see, Ramirez’s WAR is 6.9, which represents 27 percent of team WAR.

marlins_war

That’s right, Ramirez has the highest WAR in the league among position players, and the highest percentage of team WAR. And that’s a pretty good indication that he’s been the most valuable.

But guess what? There’s another guy worth mentioning. Tim Lincecum and his 7.2 WAR should be in the discussion for NL MVP. He’s responsible for 25 percent of the Giants WAR. Without him, San Fran would be totally screwed.

Of course, Lincecum won’t be a serious candidate despite his league leading WAR, because he’s a pitcher. But he should be.

And Ramirez won’t win the award, because Pujols has more RBI and home runs, and those are stats that voters traditionally care a lot about.

But while Pujols is great and has had a great season, there are clearly more deserving candidates.

NOTE: All WAR values come from the always awesome Fangraphs.

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I STILL Know Where You MVP-a-palooza-ed Last Summer

You might have seen Nick, Coley, and Sarah’s MVP picks already. If not, then you probably should. Because only then will you be able to appreciate how much better mine are.

Call me VORPy. I believe that “most valuable” means that you were the best in that year. I do not think it’s rational to expect great players to be able to turn turd-ish teammates into 30HR-threats. And I like pie.

So please keep all of these things in mind as I take my crack at my list of MVP-worthy players in the AL and NL. And if any hate mail results from this, I will not read it unless it is accompanied by a slice of pie.

American League

#4: Dustin Pedroia – I don’t know if I have a bias for or against Pedroia. For one, he’s a Red Sox which is a negative (ducking as Sarah justifiably takes a digital swing at my head across the vast world of the interwebs). On the other hand, he’s about my size and as such is totally relatable. Plus, as a former second baseman myself, I appreciate how deftly he handles the position. So I think those two irrational sides cancel each other out. What we’re left with is a guy tied for sixth in AL Win Shares and third in Runs Created despite the fact that he plays a skill position.

#3: Roy Halladay – In a year where no AL hitter distinctively separated himself from the pack, I think it’s only right to recognize what Halladay did. Although Cliff Lee beat him for the ERA and Wins titles, Halladay was right behind him. But what puts Doc over the top is how well he performed over so many innings. His 2.78 ERA is only fully appreciated when one considers the fact that Halladay threw 22.67 more innings than any other pitcher in the AL. That’s over three more games total than Lee who’s second on that list. I don’t know about you, but I like the idea of having a guy with such a low ERA pitching instead of a crappy bullpen. How’s that for value? It should also be mentioned that Halladay finished third in strikeouts, fifth in hits allowed per nine, third in walks per nine, and of course, racked up Complete Games.

#2: Joe Mauer – It’s not just that he has a “very pretty” OBP. He led the AL in Win Shares. I don’t know when was the last time a catcher accomplished this. And while it may be odd for an MVP-candidate to have less than 10 HRs, the man still slugged .451 playing half his games in the Metrodome, which was one of the worst places for hitters in 2008. And with his second batting title in three years, he’s now the first catcher in the American League history to win two of those. The first catcher to win one AL batting title was, of course, Joe Mauer in 2006. Plus, Mauer also led the league in WPA (Win Probability Added) and led all catchers in defensive Win Shares this year as well.

#1: Grady Sizemore – Is there anything this man can’t do well? Power (sixth in HRs), plate patience (third in walks), base stealing skills (38 SBs in 43 attempts), and defense (4th in Revized Zone Rating among CFers and second in Out of Zone plays made). Add it all up and you get just a great centerfielder who finished fourth in Win Shares and second in VORP, which doesn’t even counting his strong defensive contributions.

National League:

#4: Carlos Beltran – If you think that I did a top 4 instead of a top 3 just so that I can get Beltran on this list (say it with me in your best Ed McMahon voice!), you – are – co-rrrrect, sir!!! I’m actually beginning to worry about my propensity to blabber on about this guy. Despite his HR total being lower this year, he still hit well enough to finish in the top 10 in VORP, Runs Created, and extra-base hits. He was third in Win Shares and sixth in walks. And we haven’t even begun to talk about his baserunning skills and defense in center. Although he was only 7th in Revized Zone Rating among NL CFers, he more than makes up for it by easily making the most Out of Zone plays (seriously, it’s not even close).

#3: Lance Berkman – I think it’s odd how little attention has been paid to the Big Puma. Top-5 in BA, OBP, SLG, Runs Scored, Adjusted OPS, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits, and in doing all this also ended up with the most Win Shares in the National League. Played a great first base to boot. It’s really not his fault that Brad Ausmus OPSed BELOW .600. He was a player having a great season on a mediocre team.

#2: Hanley Ramirez – This one hurts. How could I possibly put Han-Ram over Beltran? He deserves it, that’s why. Offensively, Ramirez had a similar season as he did in 2007 – a bit better in OBP, a bit worse in SLG. Didn’t come all that close in SBs, but increased his homerun output. But what I appreciated most about him this year was how much better he had become defensively. His Revised Zone Rating improved dramatically from .773 to .840 (god-awful to very good), and was seventh in Out of Zone. Last year, the only knock I had on him was his defense. Now, I got nothing. He hit 33 HRs. No other shortstop in MLB came close (Hardy was second with 24). He OPSed .940. No other shortstop was even within .100 points of the guy. He’s undoubtedly the best SS in baseball.

#1: Albert Pujols – I know. Ho-hum. But no matter how contrarian I may want to be sometimes, there’s just no way I can deny Pujols this. And that’s all I have to say about that.

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MVP-a-palooza, Part…Three-za? Whatever.

Nick and Coley have already given you their MVP picks. Here are mine:

First, the American League. The runners-up:

Grady Sizemore. Smart stats love this guy, despite his crappy average this year: he was second in the AL in VORP and first in Runs Created. He also tied for fifth in homers. But it was all wasted because the Indians were so bad. Oh well.

Carlos Quentin. Let this be a lesson to him next time he wants to break his wrist to spite his bat (or whatever).

Aubrey Huff. If David Ortiz can’t win it as a DH, then Huff won’t. But you know, he finished 4th in the league in VORP, 5th in OPS and RC, and 3rd in SLG. I just thought I’d mention it, because unless you live in the 21201area code, you might have missed it.

Kevin Youkilis. Tell me if I’m wrong, but I think he was the only guy to finish in the top ten in VORP, RC, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That’s pretty badass. Plus, he plays gold-glove worthy first base and can easily slide across the diamond to play third. Heck, you can even stick him in the outfield. Terrible facial hair, though.

But there can be only one winner, and that person is…..

Dustin Pedroia. No, he’s not the trendy pick–at least, not among the baseball eggheads who are sick of hearing about the Red Sox and their annoyingly good players and just plain annoying (but devoted!) fans. (Screw you too, jerkface!) But Pedroia had 73 extra-base hits this year (including 17 HR) this year to Joe Mauer’s* 44 (including 9 HR). Mauer, the catcher, has 1 stolen base and 1 caught-stealing. Pedroia, no real speedster, has 20 stolen bases and was also caught once. (How did he do that if he doesn’t have real wheels? The old-fashioned way: using his brain.) Pedroia led the league in runs, tied for first in hits (213), came in second by just .004 .002 [edit: after game 163] in batting average, finished third in runs created (while Mauer finished 18th there), and was fourth in total bases (with Mauer tied for 33rd). Pedroia also finished third in the AL in VORP (to Mauer’s 7th-place finish) behind Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore, whose teams failed to make the playoffs this year. He played in 157 games and quietly drove in 140** runs while playing an acrobatic second base and energizing a team that suffered demoralizing injuries to their ace pitcher, cleanup hitter, and 2007 World Series MVP—while also coping with the tantrum and subsequent ouster of their most productive hitter. Without Dustin Pedroia, does anyone seriously think the Red Sox would have even made the playoffs? He’s been just as important to their playoff drive as Mauer*** was to the Twins’–and what’s more, he had a better year than Mauer. Case closed.

* I feel obligated to bring up Mauer here because so many people seems to be picking him over Pedroia, not least my colleagues at UmpBump. And look, I’m not one to undervalue a catcher’s contribution to the team, ever. But I honestly don’t know why we’re seriously talking about Mauer for MVP this year at all. (Yes, nice OBP. Very pretty. Well done. Now run along, and try to reach double digits in homers next time.)

**Now, anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I tend to pooh-pooh RBI as a stat, but keep in mind the context here: Mauer ranked 21st in MLB in RBI opportunities. Pedroia ranked 40th. But Mauer somehow finished with just 85 RBI to Pedroia’s 140. And those who would tout Mauer’s admittedly admirable ability to take a walk, I’d like to point out that despite this ability, Mauer grounded into 21 double plays–four more than the contact-prone Pedroia. And it’s not like Pedroia just swings at anything; he’s even a bit tougher to strike out than Mauer.

***To me, it’s a wash whether it’s more “valuable” to keep your team from failing when everyone expects them to succeed or to help your team succeed when everyone expects them to fail.

On to the NL. First, the doomed-to-fail runners-up:

Ryan Howard. As Coley pointed out, he led the NL in both homers and RBI, and his team did make the playoffs. But I include him only out of a feeling of obligation.

Hanley Ramirez. As Nick pointed out, he’s the young player every GM and fantasy owner would love to have. He carried the Marlins through a surprisingly good year. His time will come.

Lance Berkman. He had a great year–114 runs scored, second in RC, third in OPS and OBP, fourth in VORP. He also had 29 homers and, somewhat surprisingly, 18 steals. But the funny thing is, there are so many guys ahead of him on the home run list–Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Delgado, etc and etc–that his great year just isn’t good enough.

Chipper Jones. Now heres an AVG and OBP worth writing home about: .364 and .470, respectively, plus he was one of only two players in the NL to OPS over 1.000.

And yet there is only one clear winner here. And that is the other guy to OPS over 1.000. Who is…

Albert Pujols, despite his crappy team (hey, they would’ve won the NL West!), he clearly deserves the NL MVP and it’s not even close. He’s first in VORP, first in RC, first in OPS, second in OBP, and [yawn] first in SLG. Really, the guy is sick. There’s just nothing more to say.

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MVP-a-palooza

It’s that time of year.  Time to bring you umpbump’s picks for MVP! Here’s who I tabbed for the sport’s most prestigious award:

American League

It was a really odd down year for MVP candidates – only three players OPS’d over .900!

3. Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox

Not too many people expected the White Sox to contend this year, but Carlos Quentin emerged, seemingly out of nowhere, and absolutely carried this team of aging and inconsistent veterans on his back all year. Despite missing the last month of the season due to a freakish hand injury, he still wound up with 36 home runs and 100 RBI, and the collapse of the White Sox following his absense proved just how valuable he truly was for them.  But players who miss the most crucial month of the season can’t ultimately be MVP, so Quentin winds up third in my vote.

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

Who would have thought that little mighty mite Dustin Pedroia would wind up this season third in the American League in runs created, a stat usually dominated by massive, slugging first basemen and corner outfield types?  But it’s true – in a year in which David Ortiz sucked for a while and then got hurt, and Manny got traded, Dustin Pedroia was the best and most consistent player on a very good Red Sox team.  I mean, he batted .325.  OBP’d .375 and slugged .493. As a second baseman. He played in 158 games and only made 6 errors all season. Not to mention that nobody can stop raving about what a good clubhouse presence he is.

But one player did more…

1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

Joe Mauer is a catcher who just played in 145 games this season. That alone is pretty valuable. But we are also talking about a catcher who just won his second batting title in three years, with a batting average of .330. He also put up an OBP of .415 and scored 97 runs with 83 RBI.  Getting that kind of offensive production out of a catcher across 144 games is not just valuable, it’s a gift from the gods. But we also have to remember that Joe Mauer is also the best defensive catcher in the game these days too!  We are talking about a guy who has a career caught stealing line of 41 percent.  As I said when I voted for Joe Mauer as MVP 2 years ago, what we are seeing now in Joe Mauer is something like watching a cross between Mike Piazza on offense and Ivan Rodriguez on defense, when they were both in their primes. Mauer wasn’t quite as good this year as he was in 2006, but in a down year for AL sluggers and on a team he led to the brink of the playoffs when nobody expected it following the Santana trade, Joe Mauer gets the nod.

National League

It’s hard to vote for MVP the conventional way in the National League this season, just picking the best player on one of the 4 playoff teams, because none of the playoff bound teams had a guy put up truly MVP-type numbers.

3. Russell Martin, C, Dodgers

While it’s true that the Dodgers wouldn’t be in the playoffs if they hadn’t traded for Manny Ramirez, they also would not be there without Russell Martin.  The guy is even more durable than Joe Mauer, playing in a ridiculous 153 games, and putting up nearly Mauer-esque offensive production with a .386 OBP and 90 walks to go along with 13 homers and 18 stolen bases – a pretty awesome haul to get out of your catcher. Among NL catchers Brian McCann and Geovanny Soto outslug Martin, but they can’t match his OBP or his durability.

2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins

Is there any player in baseball that you would rather build a new team around right now than Hanley Ramirez? You’d be a fool if you named any other player because this guy is a shortstop who does absolutely everything you would want, hitting for tremendous average, power, and OBP, playing surprisingly improved defense, and stealing bases at will.  His OPS of .943 was more than 100 points higher than that of the next best shortstop in baseball. All this and he is still only 24 years old.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals

Only one player in all of baseball put up truly elite numbers this season, and his numbers are so much better than everyone else, you feel like he’s ready to be called up to a higher league, if there were one. His OPS is 1.112, 70 points higher than the next best player in all of baseball, Chipper Jones, and Pujols played in 20 more games than Jones. The man is an MVP machine, and this year he is one of the easiest MVP picks in memory.

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What They Need: Florida Marlins – To Recognize That It’s Not Their Time Yet

90 games into the season, the Florida Marlins remain in the hunt for the NL East crown, and they have done so largely on their ability to knock the crap out of the baseball. They’re currently in fourth in slugging percentage among all 30 teams with a .443 and are actually tops in home runs with a total of 128, which is all the more impressive once you account for the fact that Dolphin Stadium is quite the pitcher’s park. Their middle infielders, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, are probably the most offensively potent 2B-SS combo in the game so far this year (apologies to Philly). First baseman Mike Jacobs has a Dave Kingman-esque .249/.288/.513 line (I think I mean that as a compliment) third baseman Jorge Cantu has come back from the dead to hit 16 HRs to go along with 51 RBIs, and with Josh Willingham missing 2 whole months of action, center fielder Cody Ross has performed admirably to help fill in that gap in production.

And I’m still predicting that before the season is done, the Florida Marlins will find themselves in fourth place in the National League East. I can feel the hate coming from Miami already (do we have Marlins fans as readers?). Allow me to explain.

The Marlins have scored an average of 4.9 runs per game, which is quite good. But it simply isn’t good enough to mask the 5.2 runs they’ve been allowing. If you allow more runs than you score, you lose. That’s just how baseball works. Moreover, the NL East has been downright terrible in games decided by a run. Collectively, they are 55-81 in these situations. In fact, Florida is the only team above .500 in one-run games. So I expect Philadelphia, Atlanta, and New York to rectify this before the season’s done (although Atlanta’s been beating the odds on this one for quite some time now) which is bad news for Florida. The Phillies and Braves have been underplaying their Pythagorean scores while Florida is overplaying theirs.

In addition, I simply don’t think that Dan Uggla in particular will be able to continue hitting for so much power. In 2006 and 2007, Uggla slugged .480 and .479 respectively. This season, he’s at .620, which is an incredible leap, made all the more peculiar by the fact that his line drive rate has been decreasing over this time and he’s not hitting more fly balls either. How you could possibly increase your slugging percentage so dramatically while essentially hitting more ground balls is simply beyond me. His BABiP is an unsustainable .341, and the fact that 23.2% of the flyballs he’s hit has cleared the outfield wall is also too high to be believable for a guy like Uggla, who should be around 13%. To a lesser extent, the same could be said of Mike Jacobs as well. Could it be that these guys are just improving as they enter their primes? Absolutely and I’m not ruling that out by any means. But doubting such severe increases in production like Uggla’s has served me well in the past. He’s good. Just not this good.

However, this is still a team that has Hanley Ramirez, who I think will be the consensus “Best Player in Baseball” within 2-3 years. You can’t ask for a better building block than this guy. And I’m also a fan of Andrew Miller, who might never be an ace, but should be one of the catalysts if/when the Marlins become championship contenders once again. But it’s not going to be this year.

So I hope that the Marlins realize this and not become buyers in July. In fact, by selling some of their pieces (like the resurgent Jorge Cantu at peak value), they’d probably be better off. With Ramirez, Uggla, Willingham, Miller, and the returning Josh Johnson, the Marlins still have some great talent. But I don’t think they’re ready to stay with the Phillies, Braves and Mets just yet.

- What They Need Index -

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Rookiemania!

Rookies. So young and innocent. So naive and trusting. So….so….skinny.

Which of these tender young morsels showed the most promise this year? Which of them is most likely to end up, 15 years down the line, with bum knees, a bad back, an HGH-bloated jaw, a contract his team wants to dump, tobacco-stained teeth, kids who barely know his name, two ex-wives who both hate him, tens of millions of dollars, three SI covers, and a venereal disease he picked up on a rehab assignment in Florida after his second wrist surgery?

In the National League, there are many good candidates. I have to start by mentioning Cla Meredith. When the Sox dumped Meredith (sending him to the Padres with Josh Bard in order to reacquire knuckler-catching-specialist Doug Mirabelli) Boston was elated. This trade ended up being a bad move for a number of reasons (not least because the Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield spent a good chunk of time on the DL, rendering Mirabelli’s defensive skills somewhat extraneous, and because Jason Varitek, playing hurt and then missing a lot of time, had a lousy year—and looking back on it, wouldn’t you have rather just stuck with Bard (.333) no matter how many passed balls he had?) but a big reason is that Cla recovered from his previous struggles to pitch the way Boston had initially hoped he would. In 50 and two-thirds innings of relief, he struck out 37, walked just 6, and racked up 5 wins (and only one loss). How did he do it? Well, his 1.07 ERA and .170 BAA didn’t hurt. And looking back at the Red Sox’ season (sorry, I can’t help it) given that two of their biggest problems were filling the spot behind the dish and bridging the gap between the starting pitcher and Jonathan Papelbon (a role formerly filled by Mike Timlin, the ghost of whom was not enough this year), if the Red Sox had kept ahold of Bard and Meredith, we could be gearing up for the playoffs tonight instead of sitting at home watching Netflix movies. So for his great performance in relief this year, Meredith is my No. 3 ROY pick.

Hanley Ramirez is even more impressive. He’s got good offensive numbers for a shortstop (.292/59 RBI/17 HR, along with 46 doubles and 11 triples). But what impresses me even more is that he racked up almost the same number of walks (56) and stolen bases (51). So why am I not giving him my ROY award? Too many errors. A whopping 26, putting him third-from-last among qualified NL shortstops. Yikes. (In fairness, his range factor puts him in the top half of that group, but still.) So Hanley is my runner-up.

For my top NL ROY pick, I’m going to go with Ryan Zimmerman. Yes, he’s got those 110 RBIs and 20 homers (both nice, round numbers). But he also has 47 doubles and 61 walks. Good show, kid. Yes, he made 15 errors on the season down there at the hot corner, but in the NL that’s good enough to put him in a three-way tie for best fielding percentage. It’s a tough call, but Zimmerman edges out Ramirez based on defense.

Now for the AL. Francisco Liriano was quite the stud for the Twins in the first half, but his arm gave out down the stretch. I know that’s not uncommon for a rookie pitcher, but still. This is the bigs, and ROY is a big-league award. No doubt Liriano will come back next year, stronger and tougher, and be as lights-out as before. His 12-3 record and 2.16 ERA are smoking, and even though his teammates have apparently nicknamed him “Franchise,” he didn’t go the full stretch and so I just can’t give him my ROY.

The same stands, sadly, for Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon. Pap won over Beantown with his fire, consistency, and jaw-dropping ERA (which never rose above 1.00 all season). He even gave rise to the best new turn-of-phrase in sportswriting this year. In short, he’s the hotness. And maybe he would have pitched through his transient subluxation had the Sox stayed in contention. But as it is, they shut him down about a month ago.

More than just a pretty faceThere’s a case to be made for Nick Markakis, the bedimpled Orioles rightfielder, who’s already batting third in the birds’ lineup. Unlike some of the other newbs we’ve been discussing here on UmpBump, this is a guy who has only gotten better as the season has gone on, hitting .365 in the second half. If I were a GM and I had to, say, find a promising young rightfielder to replace an old, injury-prone free-agent rightfielder, he’d be right at the top of my list (not that the O’s are going to let him get away). But ROY winner? Not this year. Not even with my weakness for all things tall, dark, and handsome. Sorry, Dimples.

I’ll give Pap my third place vote over Liriano (but just by a hair) and Markakis my number two slot, but first place has to go to—surprise surprise—Justin Verlander. Much of the Tigers’ surprising success this year can be laid at his feet (17 wins and a solid 3.63 ERA). And unlike the other young guns on the list, he hasn’t flagged as the season’s gone on. That makes him my AL Rookie of the Year.

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The Kids are All Right: Rookie of the Year Picks

The Rookie of the Year award can be a harbinger of great things to come (Ryan Howard) or of stunning, dramatic collapse (Eric Hinske). It’s hard to imagine that this year’s candidates have anything other than great careers ahead of them. But then again, somebody probably said that about Jerome Walton, too.

Without further ado, the picks.

The NL

3. Dan Uggla (.281/.337/.474, 26 HR, 89 RBI)

2. Ryan Zimmerman (.289/.354/.475, 20 HR, 109 RBI)

1. Hanley Ramirez (.292/.353/.481, 17 HR, 51 SB)

Dan Uggla was an all-star this season and a legit slugger in the middle of the Marlins lineup. He was also solid defensively and, with the exception of Chase Utley, was probably the league’s best 2B. But he wasn’t this year’s best rookie.

It’s tempting to give the ROTY to Ryan Zimmerman in anticipation of the career he’s going to have, just as it’s tempting to give Derek Jeter the MVP award as a sort of career achievement award. Zimmerman’s got to be the surest thing among all of the talented rookies in the class of 2006. But he wasn’t this year’s best rookie, either.

Hanley Ramirez’s VORP (value over replacement player) this season was 50.7. The rookie with the next highest VORP was Uggla, at 38.6. In other words, it wasn’t even close. Ramirez hit for average, played above average defense and stole an obscene number of bases. He’s a game-changing player. And before all is said and done he’s going to be the biggest reason we’ll look back and say, “Man, the Red Sox got hosed in the Josh Beckett trade!” His biggest shortcoming is that he strikes out too much, 150 times this season, or around 25 percent of the time. But the long and short for Hanley is this: if he gets on base, he’s dangerous. And he gets on base a lot.

The AL

3. Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63 ERA, 186 IP)

2. Jonathan Papelbon (35 SV, 0.92 ERA, 75K/68.1IP)

1. Francisco Liriano (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 121 IP)

How do you know there are a lot of great rookie pitchers in the American League? When the top three candidates for AL Rookie of the Year are all pitchers, that’s how. And Jered Weaver, if he had gotten a few more starts, could have easily made this list.

Justin Verlander was the Tigers’ ace this season, stepping up when others faltered and leading Detroit to its first playoff appearance since…ummm…I have no idea when. But it’s been a long time.

Jonathan Papelbon had an ERA of less than one. I mean, really, how do you have an ERA under one and not win a major award?

I’ll tell you how. You go head to head with Francisco Liriano, who, along with Johan Santana, strapped the Twins on his back and led them to the post season. Liriano got hurt late in the season, but when he was healthy, he was untouchable. And there is plenty of precedent for giving the ROTY to a rookie who doesn’t play a full season. Ryan Howard won last season, even though he only played in 88 games. Liriano was dominant as a reliever early in the season and he was dominant as a starter in the second half. And he’s your 2006 AL Rookie of the Year.

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ROYS and PARBS

It was the wise Gary Payton who once dubbed a young rook by the name of Steve Francis, a naïve mind of sorts, a “Punk-ass bitch” for dissin’ the then Vancouver Grizzlies and forcing a trade to the Houston Rockets – at draft night.

But this is UmpBump; and before I stray too far away from the point (because, frankly, I had to do serious homework for this one) I shall nominate my Rookie of the Year candidates and other Punk-Ass Rookie Bitches – otherwise referred to as PARBs.

Instead of concentrating solely on stats and numbers, I decided to look for names that, during the course of the season, caught my eye for having a certain level of maturity and consistency.

Players like Matt Cain, the Giants’ rookie starter, who came close to a no-hitter, but sucked balls for my Fantasy team when I added him soon after, will not qualify for my list.

I’ll briefly elaborate on the PARBs that I think deserve some recognition for their skills; but before that, here’s who I think will win the ROY award in each League.

AL

Justin Verlander, SP Detroit Tigers

Verlander was unhittable during the first half of the season. A starter with a 95+ mph fastball is no joke. Being a rook, his arm fatigued towards the end, but his 17 wins will sure get him the ROY award.

NL

Hanley Ramirez, SS Florida Marlins

ramirez.jpgSo apparently, the entire Marlins’ infielder squad could receive the ROY award as a team, since they are among the top rookies in hitting. I had to pick one of ‘em, and what the hell, I went with Ramirez because he has the higherst BA amongst NL rookies (AVG .294 | HR 17 | RBI 59 | OBP .355 | SLG .485 ). I just as well could’ve picked Dan Uggla (AVG .282 | HR 26 | RBI 89 | OBP .338 | SLG .478).

Now here are who I think are other notable rooks:

• Joel Zumaya, RP Detroit Tigers

(right)

Buster Olney had a ho-hum feature for ESPN.com Insiders about the 20 best weapons in the post-season (I mean, c’mon, Chase Utley’s energy?!?), but he did strike a chord with Joel Zumaya’s fastball. The kid has a flame tattooed around his glove hand, so when he’s ready to delivery his 100-mph fastball, it looks as if he garners his strength from the flames around his glove. Nice.

Joel ZumayaHe also leads the league in Holds with 29 (a semi dubious stat; but quantifiable none-the-less; and he’s tied for second in innings pitched with 79.0 (before Friday’s game).

It was common knowledge towards the end of the season that if a Tiger’s starting arm faltered, they only had to stay in the game until Zumaya was summoned.

• Melky Cabrera, OF New York Yankees

Suuuuure, tha Yankees are done this year, suuure with Matsui an’ Sheff done fo’ da year you can almost bet them’ Sawks will win the division.

And then The Milk Man came on the scene. Not only did Cabrera fill in nicely for Matsui, the Yankees had a hint of a Left-fielder controversy when Matsui was able to return. While his numbers were not astronomical (.279, 7 hr, 50 rbi, 451 ab, unlike, say Ryan Howard); his contribution was more than enough to solidify the Yanks’ conquest of the AL East crown once again.

• Anibal Sanchez, SP Florida Marlins

Well I gotta include the kid, the no-hitter kid; how could I not? His numbers are decent (10-3 with 114.1 IP and 18 starts), but remember, we’re looking at the bigger picture here. What rooks are going to have the composure to carry their careers into the next level. Besides, his middle name can only help.

Honorable mention: Francisco Liriano SP Minnesota Twins, Prince Fielder 1B Milwaukee Brewers, Ryan Zimmerman 3B Washington Nationals.

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