Averaging 4.84 runs scored per game, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been better than what many had expected going into 2008. In fact, their starting OF has been stellar, averaging an adjusted OPS of 138, which is tops in MLB*. You read that correctly. You could easily make the argument that the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates have the best offensive outfield in Major League Baseball. I’m going to give you a second to let that sink in.

That’s better than Boston (Manny-Ellsbury-Drew = 127), St. Louis (Schumaker-Ankiel-Ludwick = 126), White Sox (Quentin-Swisher-Dye = 129), and even Detroit (Thames-Granderson-Maggs = 136).

Consisting of Jason Bay, Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady, each member of this Pittsburgh outfield trio have OBPs north of .350 and slug at least .510.

Which is why it’s really too bad that the Pirates are still pretty far out in the playoff hunt, 11.5 games behind the Cubs for the division lead. And the long-term outlook for the Bucs would be improved if they broke up their outfield in preparation for 2009 and beyond.

With all three players performing at such a high level, any of them should interest teams looking for an offensive boost for the stretch run. Xavier Nady is the one who will most likely get dealt, which makes sense. He’s a 29-year old in the last year of his contract. Based on his current performance this season, he’s going to get quite the raise from his $3.35MM salary. In addition, with a very strong .284/.387/.531 line and a pretty budget friendly contract ($5.75MM in ‘08, $7.5MM in ‘09), Jason Bay will most likely be among the top names we’ll be hearing about as we approach the trade deadline. There’s been word that Pittsburgh intends on keeping Bay for now, and if this is their sincere intent, then I think they’re making a mistake. Not only will the Pirates still be near the basement in 2009 with or without him, this is the perfect sell-high moment. With one more year left on his contract, teams would be more inclined to make an offer, much like the Rangers were able to do last year with Mark Teixeira.

The only one that the Pirates ought to keep for 2009 is McLouth and they ought to ink him to a long-term contract extension very soon (arbitration eligible at the end of the year), despite the fact that Pittsburgh management seems very wary of committing financially to players over the long haul. Although many small market teams have been quick to lock up their young talent in recent months, the Pirates have been late to that party. In fact, the only player on the roster with a guaranteed Major League contract two seasons from now (in 2010) is Ian Snell. To be fair, they haven’t exactly had the kind of young talent that’s really worth locking up, but I think McLouth’s bat is worth the risk.

And if Bay and/or Nady can be dealt, the Bucs have a pretty good prospect waiting in the wings named Andrew McCutchen. Currently playing for AAA-Indianapolis, McCutchen is a five-tool centerfielder whose skills at the position should allow the team to move McLouth over to left (Nate currently sports a pretty ugly .866 RZR in center). But since he’s only 21 years old, I’d understand it if the Pirates waited just a bit longer to call him up.

Now if they could only figure out this “pitching” thing, they’d be going somewhere…

*One caveat so that Rangers fans won’t jump me - on those days when Texas goes with the trio of Milton Bradley-Josh Hamilton-David Murphy, they’re better (OPS-Plus of 142). But Bradley’s mostly a DH these days (48 games at DH, 17 in OF).

- What They Need Index -

Batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, is a tool most useful for evaluating pitchers. While batters do show some ability to consistently hit for BABIP above or below league average from year to year, we have almost no evidence that pitchers can control the results of balls put into play against them from year to year. This means that as we approach the end of the first third of the current season, BABIP is useful to help fantasy team owners determine which pitchers are for real and which pitchers are flukes so far.

Looking at pitchers with extreme and utterly unsustainable BABIP stats (over .350 or under .250), we can easily identify 5 pitchers who are performing way above their level, and 5 pitchers who have actually pitched quite well but do not have the stats to show for it. As a fantasy team owner, you should look to trade high on the former, before they inevitably crash back down to earth, and you should look to buy low on the latter, before their luck evens out and their stats return to their actual level of performance.

Sell High - 5 Lowest BABIPs

The chart at right shows the 5 luckiest pitchers in baseball, BABIP-wise.

Shaun Marcum has looked like an ace this season, tossing some absolute gems, such as an 8-inning, 2-hit, 0-run performance against a powerful Indians lineup on May 12, and a near complete game against the even more powerful Rays on May 7. But looking at his ridiculous .194 BABIP tells us that he has actually been the luckiest pitcher in all of baseball, upon which the difference between his 2.64 ERA this season and his 4.24 career ERA prior to this season becomes much more understandable. He’s not worth keeping - trade him if you can.

With a 5-3 record and a sparkling 3.22 ERA this season, Gavin Floyd has White Sox Fans thinking that he is finally blossoming into the ace everyone has long hoped he could become, but his gift-from-the-baseball-gods .198 BABIP suggests that he is actually much closer to the pitcher of prior years who had a career ERA in the high 5’s. Maybe a White Sox fan will bite on him.

Scott Olson has teamed up with Mark Hendrickson to be one of the co-aces of a surprising Marlins team, but Hendrickson has actually been the much better pitcher; Olson’s low BABIP portends an imminent return to mediocrity. Maybe you can get something for him before he crashes and burns.

After a several-year hiatus in the bullpen, Ryan Dempster has made a triumphant return to starting pitching, posting an astonishing 2.56 ERA in 11 starts. But his crazy low BABIP will soon regress, showing Cubs fans why he is just as mediocre a pitcher as he as always been. Sell him off to a Cubs fan now.

Joe Saunders is young and good, but he is not that young, and he is not this good. He’s definitely worth keeping on your team, but lower your expectations the rest of the way. His ERA will probably be in the mid 4’s from here on out.

Buy Low - Guys Who Have Been Unlucky

Here are the five pitchers who have been most snake bitten so far - bloopers falling in or slow rollers finding holes.

Andrew Miller of the Marlins has actually pitched very well this year, but nobody knows it because he has been the unluckiest pitcher in the game so far. He is probably not even owned in your league, so if you need a pitcher, go pick him up. He should give you decent strikeouts, and with that offense and in that park, decent ERA and wins as well the rest of the way.

Bronson Arroyo is another guy who is probably not even owned in your league. But don’t be fooled by his unsightly ERA and WHIP - he is pitching just as well as he did the past two seasons, when he put up near-ace-like numbers.

Ian Snell of the Pirates broke out last year with a strong ace-like season. This year the breakout secretly continues, hidden behind some horrible bad luck. He’s still good, and should be in your fantasy rotation if you can get him.

Ubaldo Jimenez is not as bad as his numbers have shown, but he pitches half his games in Coors Field, and half of the Rockies offense is on the DL right now, so I’d avoid him.

Miguel Batista is still the same old mediocre 4th starter type he’s always been. He’ll turn it around a bit when his luck evens out, but is probably not worth owning except in AL-only leagues, especially with that terrible Mariners defense behind him.

Other guys with low BABIP (Sell, sell, sell!): Daniel Cabrera, Todd Wellemeyer, Tim Redding, Jose Contreras

Other guys with high BABIP (Buy, buy, buy!): CC Sabathia, Andy Pettite, AJ Burnett, Manny Parra

Ian Snell is having a breakout year of sorts. The Pittsburgh righty has compiled a 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a very good 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 131 2/3 innings. I like what he’s done enough to have mentioned him in a previous post regarding All-Star snubs. Too bad he plays for the Pirates or else he’d probably have a better record than 7-8.

And his family probably wouldn’t call him a “loser”.

Following last night’s pitiful performance by the Pirates defense, Snell, who was removed from the game after only four innings and 63 pitches thrown, made some not too subtle comments to reporters regarding his teammates.

“All I know is that I’m going to take the blame,” Snell said. “Everything’s my fault. I don’t want to put any pressure on the team. Nothing.” He paused again, then made a 180-degree turn.

“There were some balls I thought we could have caught. We could have given up only three runs. I could have stayed in the game. I threw 50 pitches, and I’m out of the game. But they didn’t give those guys errors, either, so … it didn’t work out in my favor.”

In the guy’s defense, the gloves behind him in the fourth inning in particular were pretty horrendous. After getting Carlos Delgado to fly to left for the first out, Paul Lo Duca lofted a high flyball that was well short of the warning track in left-center. Instead of it being the 2nd out of the inning, CFer Xavier Nady, usually (and wisely) used as a corner outfielder, couldn’t get to it in time while it looked like LFer Jason Bay simply gave up. After Shawn Green drove Lo Duca home with a bullet up the middle, catcher Ronny Paulino unsuccessfully tried to backhand a slider that was barely in the dirt - Tom Emanski would not approve - which advanced Green to second. Lastings Milledge then proceeded to hit a laser right at 3rd baseman Matt Kata who let the ball go through his legs, scoring Green from 2nd. For the icing on the cake, Mets pitcher John Maine swung at a high fastball and took it over the fence for a 2-run homer.

If the Pirates OF did not consist of two below-average corner outfielders and a catcher (Ryan Doumit) , Lo Duca’s double would have been an out. If Kata knew how to catch a ball that he didn’t even need to move for, Snell would’ve been out of the inning. Instead, there were four runs on the board - all earned, thanks to the scoreboard keeper inexplicably giving Milledge a hit - and Snell was done. It was comical to everyone but Pirates fans and players.

Snell certainly didn’t think it was funny. When questioned by reporters how it felt to, well, suck as much as the Pirates do, Snell told them to ask his teammates that same question. He continued dramatically:

“I’m starting to break. I’m getting stressed out. I don’t know about these other guys, but I just want to win. I don’t want to be called a loser. Man, even my family calls our team losers, and I don’t want anyone to say that about our team.”

Dude, that’s really bad. Especially when your family comes from Dover, Delaware.