In a preseason post on his fantasy baseball site Roto Authority, Tim Dierkes ran through the guys he thought had the best chance at hitting 20 homers and stealing 20 bases in 2009. The list: Hanley Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano, Ian Kinsler, Nate McLouth, Corey Hart, and Brandon Phillips.

Dierkes also suggested a few other guys who had an outside chance at 20/20: Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Matt Kemp, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rios, Chris Young, Jayson Werth, Rickie Weeks and Chris Dickerson.

Dierkes is a big believer in these 20/20 players. He stacks his teams with as many of these guys as possible. I’ve borrowed his approach this season and my team is in first place, after years of never finishing higher than seventh (out of 12).

But nowhere on Dierkes’ list of 20/20 players was Shin-Soo Choo. That’s because nobody expected Choo to steal 20 bases (ZiPS projected him to steal 8, while BP said he’d nab 10). Yet, through 81 games, he’s stolen 13 bags — and he’s yet to be caught.

Shin-Soo Choo will not play for the 2009 AL all-star team, but he should. He’s on pace to steal 26 bases, hit 24 homers, post an OBP above .400 and rack up 100 runs and RBIs. His defense isn’t great, but it’s not nearly bad enough to overshadow his outstanding offensive output.

Before this season started, people wondered if Choo’s 14 homers in 94 games in 2008 was a fluke. Now we know — it wasn’t. In fact, it was only a small part of the overall picture. So why isn’t Choo getting any love from Joe Madden or anyone else? For one, he plays for the last place Indians. Also, it’s hard to remember where to put the hyphen in his name.

But don’t worry, Choo will get his love. In January and February, when fantasy baseball nerds are getting ready for their leagues’ anual drafts, they’ll sort through the stats and come to the inevitable conclusion that Choo is a lot more than just a home run hitter. He’s a base-stealing, walk-taking, RBI and run-scoring machine.

Well that’s something I’d never seen… In last night’s 10th inning victory over the Royals, the Indians’ Shin-Soo Choo came up to the plate with no outs and runners on first and second. And then, that happened:

I’m sure that pretty soon MLB will take the video down so for those of you late-comers, here’s the deal. Choo lines a shot over the mound into centerfield where a flock of gulls (it is a flock, right?) were just hanging out beyond the infield dirt. Before Royals CFer Coco Crisp could get to the ball, it strikes one of these mellow, “you know, just chillin’” gulls and deflects past Crisp to score the winning run.

Apparently, the Indians still have good karma left in them, despite Chief Wahoo’s mug.

I should also note that the bird was fine. It was stunned briefly and then flew away into that Cleveland night…

This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

It’s graduation season! A lot of honors handed out (unless you’re Obama).

So what better time to tackle a topic like Albert Belle’s Hall of Fame candidacy? No better time, says I.

There are two ways to get into the Hall: You’ve got to be very good over a long peroid of time and rack up counting stats, or you’ve got to be dominant.

The chief knock against Belle’s HOF case is that he didn’t play long enough, and therefore didn’t reach any of the milestones that equal automatic HOF induction. No 3,000 hits. No 500 home runs. No 1,500 runs batted in.

But he was pretty dang dominant.

Belle played 12 seasons, longer than Kirby Puckett, Sandy Koufax, and Ralph Kiner. He didn’t quit because he couldn’t hack it. He was forced out by an arthritic hip. He played in 10 full seasons (and parts of two others) and during that peak decade he averaged 37 HR, 120 RBI and a roughly .360 OBP. In 1995 he became the first player to hit 50 doubles and 50 home runs in a season. Even in his last season, when he was hobbling around the bases, he hit .281 with 23 HRs and 103 RBI.

Belle had a better OPS+ than Harmon Kilebrew, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Jim Rice (even if you ignore Rice’s pedestrian final three seasons). And if you’re interested in hardware, Belle made five all-star teams and won five Silver Slugger awards and surely should have won the 1995 AL MVP, except the voters hated him and instead awarded the MVP to Mo Vaughn, who had vastly inferior stats.

I’m not gonna blow smoke up your butts. I know Belle isn’t a slam dunk Hall of Famer. But surely he deserved better than the 3.5% of the vote he got in 2007, which was not enough to even merit another year on the ballot. When Belle retired in 2001, NY Daily News bloviator Bill Madden famously wrote:

Sorry, there’ll be no words of sympathy here for Albert Belle… Belle was a surly jerk before he got hurt and now he’s a hurt surly jerk… Belle’s boorish behavior should be remembered by every member of the Baseball Writers Association when it comes time to consider him for the Hall of Fame.

And they did.

Of course Belle was a jerk. But I don’t care about that. Count me among those who think the Hall of Fame should get rid of its character clause. Sports writers, as Joe Posnanski says, should not be in the business of making character judgments.

Belle should be measured by his on-the-field achievements, and they were numerous.

This is one of a series of posts in which we call out all 30 teams for their off-season blunders, and award credit where due for their crafty off-season maneuvers.

At least compared to expectations, the Cleveland Indians had a dismal 2008 season.

The team that a little more than a year ago was knocking on the door of the World Series before being dragged back at the last moment by the Red Sox, and then returned with the entire team intact, stumbled out of the gate and fell to an 81-81 record, and large contract demands forced them to trade away possibly the best starting pitcher in the game today, C.C. Sabathia.

Can Pronk recover his stroke?

Among other problems, the heart of the lineup, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, went down with injuries and generalized suckage, respectively, and the bullpen imploded, vomiting up the second worst ERA in baseball at 5.13, second only to the perennially execrable Texas pen, once again proving the well-known danger of standing pat with any bullpen headlined by Joe Borowski.

The good news for Indians fans is that the team’s outlook has improved dramatically in recent months.  Part of this improvement actually got underway last season, and it was widely understood that the Indians were actually playing the best baseball of any AL central team last September, while the Twins and White Sox were backing their way into a one-game playoff.

Borowski finally pitched his way out of town, earning a richly deserved release, and the struggles of the rest of the pen forced the front office to locate some younger, more talented arms.  Meanwhile, Cliff Lee sold his soul to the Devil for pinpoint control, Shin-Soo Choo woke up one day and realized he was a ferocious slugger, and Kelly Shoppach burst onto the scene with 21 homers, proving himself to be Theo Epstein’s worst mistake so far – a catcher who hits homers and also gets on base.  Rounding it all out, Martinez and Hafner worked their way back into the lineup, and look ready to go for the start of this season.

A second part of the Indians improvement will come from some positional realignments.  Jhonny Peralta and his ballooning belly shift from short to third base for 2009, allowing natural-born shortstop Asdrubal Cabrerra to slide over from second.  This signals the end of the Andy Marte experiment, I suppose, since the once highly-touted mega-prospect is completely out of minor league options and likely to be cut loose by the end of spring training. But oh well, live and learn.

DeRosa can play every position.

Meanwhile, the emergence of Shoppach as a viable starting catcher will allow Martinez to spend more time at first base and DH, where he can hopefully avoid injury and keep his potent bat in the lineup for more games.  He’s probably a better defender at first than the iron-gloved Ryan Garko anyway.

Finally, the Indians went out and made some solid moves in the offseason, somehow prying hard-hitting jack-of all-trades Mark DeRosa away from the Cubs via trade to play second base, and addressing their primary woe last season – the bullpen – by bringing in flame-throwing closer Kerry Wood via free agency and under-appreciated middleman Joe Smith via trade from the Mets.  For the first time in recent memory, the Indians will actually have a closer that inspires any kind of fear at all from the enemy, and combined with the new faces in the pen from the end of last season, the unit as a whole should be greatly improved.

All told it was a pretty good off-season for the Tribe. Standing pat after 2007 was probably a mistake, but the team’s main weakness in the bullpen has now been addressed.  Most people agree that the 6-year deal given to Travis Hafner in 2006 was probably too long, but he may have another year or two of decent production left in him yet, now that a weak shoulder was finally addressed with off-season surgery, and even if the suckage continues, the centerpiece of the Sabathia trade, Matt LaPorta, is a Ryan-Braun-like beast at the plate whose only real position is DH anyway.  With the return from injury of Fausto Carmona and Victor Martinez, the additions of Wood and Smith to the pen, and a much improved defense up the middle in De Rosa and Cabrera, and with the White Sox retrenching while the Twins stand pat and the Tigers try to claw out of the division cellar, the Indians should have as good a chance as any team of taking the AL Central title and perhaps more.

Offseason Grade: B+

Additions: Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa, Joe Smith, Carl Pavano, Tomo Ohka, Kirk Sarloos

Losses: Franklin Gutierrez

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

CF Grady Sizemore
2B Mark DeRosa
1B Victor Martinez
DH Travis Hafner
3B Jhonny Peralta
C Kelly Shoppach
RF Shin-Soo Choo
LF Ben Francisco
SS Asdrubal Cabrera

SP1 Cliff Lee
SP2 Fausto Carmona
SP2 Aaron Laffey
SP4 Anthony Reyes
SP5 Jeremy Sowers/Scott Lewis/Zach Jackson/David Huff/Carl Pavano

CL Kerry Wood

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

Maybe it’s not Carl Pavano’s fault that he hurt his shoulder in 2005, right after signing that $39 million, 4-year deal. Maybe it’s not his fault that, in 2006, he spent the entire season rehabbing a bruised ass. The car accident in August of that year that left him with two broken ribs? That’s just unlucky. Sure, he probably should have informed the team about the accident and the broken ribs, rather than show up for a minor league rehab start only to walk off the mound after a handful of painful pitches. But hey, nobody’s perfect. And surely it’s not his fault that in 2007, he went on the DL again with an elbow strain, and then had Tommy John surgery.

Don’t blame Pavano for his injuries. They could happen to anyone. But do blame him for his relationship blunders. You only get one chance with Miss South Beach, Carl. She was a hottie, and you let her get away. What a dope.

Late last night, a trade was completed between the Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, and the New York Mets with the big name involved – J.J. Putz – headed to Flushing.

Here’s how the trade breaks down:

Mets get: J.J. Putz (RP), Jeremy Reed (OF), and Sean Green. Give up: Aaron Heilman (RP), Endy Chavez (OF), Joe Smith (RP), Mike Carp (1B) Jason Vargas, (SP/RP), Maikel Cleto (SP), and Ezequiel Carrera (OF).

Indians get: Luis Valbuena (2B), and Joe Smith (RP). Give up: Franklin Gutierrez (OF), Jeremy Reed (OF).

Mariners get: Franklin Gutierrez (OF), Aaron Heilman (RP), Endy Chavez (OF), Mike Carp (1B), Jason Vargas, (SP/RP), Maikel Cleto, and Ezequiel Carrera. Give up: J.J. Putz (RP), Sean Green (RP) Luis Valbuena (2B).

For those keeping count, that’s twelve players overall. Phew.

Mets GM Omar Minaya had set out to remake the much maligned New York bullpen, and with this trade and the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez, he has done just that for better or worse. He has replaced the trio of Billy Wagner (injured – out for 2009), Heilman and Smith with K-Rod, Putz, and Green.

Wagner’s contract with the Mets runs out just as he would be preparing for a return from Tommy John surgery so he needed to be replaced no matter what. Whether the Rodriguez signing was the way to go is yet to be determined.  Regarding the righty side-armer Joe Smith, his value to any team is limited due to his ineffectiveness against left-handed hitters. He’s a ROOGY, and such pitchers limit the manager’s bullpen flexibility, leading to the overuse of everyone else.

And while I liked Aaron Heilman, his return to the Mets in 2009 was unlikely. He became the poster child of the inept bullpen despite being a very dependable player from 2005-07. His control left him in 2008 against both lefties and righties and he ended up issuing 46 unintentional walks in 76 innings. In his career, Heilman garnered a reputation as a righty who can shut down lefty hitters thanks to his highly effective sinker/change-up combo, and last year he began mixing in a slider as well. I wonder if this addition of a third pitch was the problem. Although he threw them mostly against righties – and it was the left-handed hitters who destroyed him to the tune of a .991 OPS – it may help explain his inconsistent delivery in 2008. According to pitch f/x, his release point was further away from his body, which would be a logical answer to the spike in walks. I’m not sure why he felt compelled to add the slider, but the cynic in me thinks that he wanted to prove he had the ability to be a starter. Whatever the reason, the boo birds rained down on Heilman in 2008 and he just wasn’t the same guy.

The Mets also gave up Endy Chavez in the deal, who was far more popular with Mets fans than his skills dictated. Yes, he was fast, yes, he hustled, and yes, he made one of the greatest catches in Mets history (in a season-ending loss, but that’s just a detail…). But his suited role is as a late-inning defensive replacement, which is certainly useful, but hardly irreplaceable.

In addition, the Mariners picked up another defensive specialist in Franklin Gutierrez from Cleveland, who is a younger, right-handed, and better version of Chavez.  I honestly don’t know why Seattle wanted two no-bat, all-glove guys, but their acquisition of some Mets farmhands makes sense. Mike Carp is a 22 year-old first baseman whose skills I like quite a bit. He’s never going to be a defensive asset and his future may be as a DH, but he’s got little pop and has already demonstrated good plate discipline. Unless his power develops quite a bit as he matures, he won’t be a star.

Why was Cleveland even a part of this deal – unless their scouts are high on Valbuena? But I’m glad they were. Consequently, J.J. Putz is now a Met.

Putz’ 2008 season was an injury-fueled wash out. But if he’s healthy, he’s probably a better pitcher than K-Rod right now. He misses just as many bats but walks much fewer. Although Rogriguez will undoubtedly be the closer for the team, Putz is a great insurance policy and should be one of the best 8th inning pitchers in baseball. And on top of it, the Mets also get reliever Sean Green, a ground ball pitcher (3:1 GB:FB ratio) whose skills were not exactly enhanced by the poor Seattle defense. Green will fill Smith’s spot as a righty arm from the pen.

It is not, however, a total slam dunk for the Mets. Unless the team exercises his 2010 option for $8.6MM, Putz is a free agent after the year. His agent must be fuming that his client has to be a set-up man in a contract year. So there’s a pretty good chance that the Mets paid for one year of Putz. The team can do without Heilman, Chavez and Smith without much problems, but both Carp and 19-year old Maikel Cleto have a chance to be average big leaguers (and Cleto has more upside).

Seattle did the right thing by dealing Putz for a cachet of spare parts and prospects. The team probably wasn’t going to contend in 2009 so who pitches their ninth inning is fairly irrelevant.

And if someone can explain to me why Cleveland felt compelled to be a part of this deal, I’m all ears.

Before the 2007 season began, it wasn’t all that difficult to see that the Indians would be a team that needed to be reckoned with. Despite an unimpressive 78-win season the year before, this was the team whose run differential was a plus 88. They were better than their record had shown. And they went on to win 96 games without any major additions in 2007.

Flash forward to November 2008. The Indians had once again underplayed their run differential to the tune of a .500 record despite scoring 805 runs against 761 runs given up. But things are different. C.C. Sabathia is gone. Travis Hafner looks like a shell of his former self and Victor Martinez’ power disappeared overnight. On the positive end of the spectrum, Grady Sizemore cemented himself as a topflight player and Kelly Shoppach emerged as an offensive threat that made Victor Martinez’s sudden decline easier to swallow. Shin-Soo Choo was no longer just a fun name to recite, but a solid big leaguer who still had notable upside. Not to mention the fact that Cliff Lee surprised everyone and got himself a Cy Young award. With these players, the talent gap between the old guard and the new in Cleveland is not vast at all.

However, they do have areas that require help. For one, it’s actually rather amazing that the Indians scored as many runs as they did with so little production coming from the conventional power positions. The Indians had Ryan Garko and Casey Blake (before he went to LA) at first and third, with Ben Francisco and Franklin Gutierrez in left and right, plus Hafner DHing. Upgrading these positions offensively would not be that difficult under ordinary circumstances. But if you take a look at the first base options on the free agent market, the names do not inspire much confidence aside from Mark Teixeira — and the third basemen are worse. With Pronk and his contract entrenched at the DH spot, signing players not named Teixeira would mean a defensive downgrade that may not be worth the offensive upgrade and the financial commitment that would go with it.

And herein lies the problem with having a DH who struggled as badly as Hafner did in 2008. This year’s free agent market is full of all-bat-no-glove type players whose value would be maximized by only utilizing them for offensive purposes – Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Frank Thomas, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, etc. With his contract (guaranteed $51.75MM over the next four years), a team like the Indians, whose payroll hasn’t hit $80MM per year since 2001 (and is often well below that mark) do not have much choice but to keep giving Pronk a shot. Yes, he was injured for much of 2008 and certainly, his poor performance can partly be attributed to it. But his 2007 season wasn’t very good either and players like Hafner age quickly. Long story short, I don’t think we’ll ever see him perform at his previous levels ever again. Only a repeat of his 2007 campaign would be a realistic goal.

Moving on to other topics, there’s been talk of moving Jhonny Peralta to third base which doesn’t sound like such a bad idea. But this would obviously depend on who would replace him at short. And Peralta’s bat profiles as average at the hot corner and doesn’t do anything to improve their lineup power. Unless the Tribe shell out the money to bring in Rafael Furcal, it’s probably best to keep Peralta at short for the time being.

On the pitching side, players who have as big a statistical leap as Cliff Lee had last season tend to come back down to earth – not that his “earth” is all that bad. As long as his low walk total wasn’t a total fluke, Lee should remain a very good player. And to counteract this drop, Fausto Carmona can be expected to be better. No one had foreseen Carmona’s performance in 2007. By the same token, no one foresaw such a poor follow-up year. The real Fausto Carmona should be somewhere in the middle, which still makes him an above-average pitcher. The Tribe can also expect the return of Jake Westbrook from Tommy John surgery sometime in the summer and he should be a positive addition to the rotation. In the meantime, rookie Scott Lewis (who made his debut in September) should get the chance to earn a full time spot along with fellow young arms Aaron Laffey, Anthony Reyes, and Jeremy Sowers.

Their bullpen could use some help as well. Currently, their best relievers are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis. In addition, top prospect Adam Miller is expected to be on an innings-limit making him a reliever for most if not all of 2009. And while he had a terrible season, Rafael Betancourt is a better pitcher than his 2008 numbers indicate. But Perez is the only lefty of the bunch so they could use one more.

But their primary focus should really be to boost the offensive production coming from their corner positions. Ben Francisco, Ryan Gutierrez and Ryan Garko are probably not going to cut it if the Indians want to overtake the White Sox for the division crown. Giving Choo more at-bats would probably be a cheap and worthwhile option. I would also argue that Kelly Shoppach’s value is never going to be higher than it is right now and ought to be shipped out to one of the many teams who’d love an offensive upgrade at the catcher spot in exchange for a viable third baseman (Red Sox perhaps?).

All in all, I like the Indians’ chances in 2009. But much of it is going to rest upon the bats of Hafner and Victor Martinez. If their 2008 season wasn’t a fluke, then much of what they accomplish this offseason will most likely be moot.

- What They Need Index -