It’s never really fair to expect Cy Young winners to repeat their performances in the upcoming year. Yes, from time to time, they succeed in doing so. But more often than not, there is a bit of a regression because that’s just how baseball works. No matter how good you are, there’s just only so much that you can control. What broke your way one season might not the next. It’s a cruel way of looking at the game, but just like any other sport, there’s just a limit to how good anyone can be on a consistent basis.

With that said, something appears to be wrong with C.C. Sabathia.  It’s not something that’s appearing on the radar gun since, by all accounts, he’s still in his normal mid-90s on fastballs. It’s not something that can be explained away by a diminished strikeout rate because while it is a bit lower than the past couple of years, it’s not out of the norm, especially considering we only have four 2008 starts with which to work. And looking at ESPN.com’s numbers, Sabathia is getting hitters to two strikes as often as he usually does. It’s just that a fewer number of guys are getting to strike three. My bet is that sooner or later, that will correct itself.

But there are some statistical data that ought to raise some eyebrows. On this chart (left), we have some information on Sabathia’s performance over the past three seasons.  Sure, nearly everything there in 2008 looks ugly. But his walks per nine in particular is a cause for concern. Seven walks per nine innings pitched isn’t going to win you many ball games. In 2007, Sabathia walked an amazingly low 37 hitters over 241 innings. He’s up to 14 walks already in 18 innings. You’d have go all the way back to August of 2005 to find a four-game stretch where Sabathia had allowed so many free passes.

Then there’s that homeruns per nine. In ‘06 and ‘07, he posted good numbers here as well, but not so much this year. I usually wouldn’t advocate putting too much stock into this so early in the season. We’re only talking about five dingers here. Ordinarily, it wouldn’t be much of a concern since these things do happen. But it is worth mentioning how badly C.C.’s been tagged over these past four starts. And it’s BAD.

So this chart (left) makes sense. The increase in BABiP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) obviously is directly correlated to the batting average. All those walks we just talked about is a big reason why almost 1/2 the guys that Sabathia has faced this year is getting on base.

But aside from that? The stats look like he’s been throwing batting practice. He’s inducing far fewer groundballs than usual, and the line drive percentage shows that he’s getting tattooed, which helps explain the high BABiP as well (that, and suspect defense).

By the way, I don’t mean this to sound like a complaint, but I really want this pitch f/x data to be tabulated and available quicker.  I know it’s an incredibly tedious process and very few people are dedicated enough to do these kinds of things. But I want more information on C.C.’s 2008 than what’s currently available!!! Thank you.

There are two popular explanations here: 1) he’s a free agent at the end of the year and it’s messing with his head, and 2) including the playoffs, he pitched over 256 innings last year and his arm is shot. But I’m not convinced entirely by either argument. For one, Sabathia’s going to get paid no matter what. If this continues, it probably won’t compete with Johan Santana’s deal, but longterm security is still in his future. Maybe it’s because my head can’t wrap around the difference between $70 million and $100 million, but C.C. was reportedly offered something around $70 million for four additional years just a few months ago, and that’s going to buy you some very nice things. As far as last year’s innings totals are concerned, if his arm was indeed shot, then why no drop in velocity (if that is indeed true. Again, pitch f/x would have been useful here. Still not complaining though.)?

Sabathia sounds like he doesn’t know what’s going on either.

“It’s not mechanical. My velocity is fine. I just can’t command both sides of the plate.”

If it’s true that he can’t command both sides of the plate, then isn’t it mechanical?

Simply put, there’s no really obvious explanation here that makes much sense to me.  If I had to guess, despite the fact that he is currently destroying my fantasy season thus far, it is a mechanical problem and those can be righted. So I expect him to be OK soon. But the team should really do their due diligence and ask him to get a physical exam. Guys with his build don’t tend to last very long as elite pitchers.

The Blue Jays debuted their throwback uniforms last night, as they plan to do for every Friday home game this season. Behold:

They look a bit silly, but isn’t that just part of the fun? The Royals have also brought their powder blues back (though only from the waist up). Last year, the Padres busted out their old all-yellow duds. What other teams could bring back some kickass vintage duds? Let’s look at the contenders:

Read the rest of this entry »

They tried to play baseball in Cleveland on Monday and — surprise, surprise — it snowed.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer, like all newspapers, is fascinated with weather. And they’re milking the story for all it’s worth.

On Monday, Alejandro introduced you to the Plain Dealer’s new flash-based video game, “Snowball!“

That game was lame.

But the Plain Dealer’s latest feature, a time-lapse video of the grounds crew fighting to keep the Prog field in playing shape, is pretty cool. So cool, that it has earned the official Umpbump seal of approval.
See, technology isn’t all bad.

During yesterday’s broadcast of the Indian’s home-opener, the two announcers went back and forth as to how much work the ground’s crew had in their hands a few days ago due to a snow storm that had blanketed the city (and the Prog’s field), and what great work it had done to get the field ready for the game (a situation very similar to last year’s opening day).

Being April fool’s day, and in what continues to be a trend of lazy journalists having to readjust their careers*, the Cleveland Plain Dealer decided to have some fun with the inclement weather, posting a flash-based video game on their website.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is the first second iteration known to UmpBump (see comments) of a video game designed and created by for a newspaper, and it sure signals what could become a new source of revenue as the newspaper industry struggles down its path into oblivion.

The graphics are pretty rudimentary, the skill needed to play is on par with your ability to click through pictures of lolcats, and the fun factor isn’t that much more than having to wait out a rain delay watching America’s Funniest Videos reruns from the mid 90s, but you have to give the Plain Dealer some points for scoring the front page of reddit.com (albeit, for the crappyness of the game – the headline is “Quite possibly, the worst flash game ever”).

So there you have it folks, the role of your local newspaper isn’t that to inform but to entertain. Whodda thunk it.

*This, of course, isn’t corroborated, but it’d be pretty funny and ironic if the flash designer for the game were a converted journo.

Edit: So it’s not the first, see comments.

This is one in a series of posts in which we denigrate each team for their flummoxing offseason gaffes, or flatter them for their perspicacious pre-season tactics.

Over the last 20 years, baseball has seen only two teams repeat as World Series champions. The 1992-1993 Toronto Blue Jays, and the mighty New York Yankees of the late 90s. Both of these franchises ensured their return to the promised land by assembling a powerful line-up complimented with pitching and defense. But although that’s the goal for every single team every offseason, so few World Series winners have been able to replicate their success the following year.

So what does it say when a team that missed going to the World Series by a single game, effectively decides to play it safe and field 99% of the same team it fielded the year before? That’s like earning a big fat bonus at the end of the year, only to pad your mattress with it, and that’s exactly what the 2008 Cleveland Indians have done.

Back in January, when we here at UmpBump were contemplating what each team still needed in order to make this offseason a productive one, I was at a loss. The Indiands had barely made any moves in the transaction list, signing Japanese reliever Masahide Kobayashi (no, not that Kobayashi, though you wonder what kind of impact it would have on the OPS), trading for infielder Jamey Carroll and signing Brendan Donnelly to a minor league deal.

And what has changed since? They’ve signed Jorge Julio to another minor league deal.

But who can blame the Indians for not making any significant moves? They certainly didn’t need an upgrade in their rotation, anchored by Cy-Young winner C.C. Sabathia, and featuring the break-out pitcher of 2007, Fausto Carmona. They have one of the most exicting players to watch, Grady Sizemore, patrolling center field; their catcher, Victor Martinez, led all catchers in Home Runs and RBI, and was second in most other offensive categories to Jorge Posada; they have promising young players like Franklin Gutierrez, and prospects like Shin-Soo Choo; and their designated hitter, the fearful Travis “Pronk” Hafner is returning after missing a big chunk of last year’s campaign due to injury.

Here’s what I had to say about the Indians’ bullpen last May, in a “what they need” post:

The only problem has been the bullpen; out of the seven relievers that have pitched more than 11 innings, only two have an ERA under 2.00, while the rest have a 3.10 or higher earned run average.

The Indians have to keep it consistent all season long and they’ll be right there when it’s all said and done. Considering the fact that they still have to play those make up games with Seattle, they might even have a better record than they do now.

Turns out, the Tribe did keep it consistent, and their relievers posted a collective 3.73 ERA, good for fourth in the American League.

So far, the team to take the headlines in the AL Central has been the Tigers, and rightly so. But the Indians were successful last year for playing a solid brand of baseball: strong, productive lineup, excellent pitching, good enough relief, and good defense. The Tigers on the other hand, have not solidified their bullpen - something which may eventually haunt them down the stretch (and let’s not worry about the Twins or the White Sox just yet, they have to be close at the All Star break before we can even begin to consider them contenders).

So sure, if Mark Shapiro was inclined to make some moves before the season got going, he opted to solidify what at some point last year seemed like a weak spot, the bullpen. But glancing over what the Indians did last year, and what they could ostensibly do this year (with a healthy Travis Hafner, I can’t stress that enough), one has to wonder if Shapiro’s decision to stay put is really the opening salvo of a new powerhouse in the American League.

Offseason grade: B-

Additions: Jamey Carroll, Brendan Donnelly, Jorge Julio, Masahide Kobayashi

Losses: Kenny Lofton

Projected lineup, rotation and closer:

CF - Grady Sizemore .277 .390 .462
2B - Asdrubal Cabrera .283 .354 .421
DH- Travis Hafner .266 .385 .451
C - Victor Martinez .301 .374 .505
1B - Ryan Garko .289 .359 .483
SS - Jhonny Peralta .270 .341 .430
3B - Casey Blake .270 .339 .437
RF - Franklin Gutierrez .266 .318 .472
LF - Jason Michaels .270 .324 .397

LH - C.C. Sabathia 19-7, 3.21 ERA
RH - Fausto Carmona 19-8, 3.06 ERA
RH - Paul Byrd 15-8, 4.59 ERA
RH - Jake Westbrook 6-9, 4.32 ERA
LH - Aaron Laffey 4-2, 4.56 ERA

CL Joe Borowski 45 SV, 5.07 ERA

The Indians are like that quiet kid in your class that’s always getting good grades, not A’s but solid B’s, that gets along great with everyone, and that once you’re out of college, you realize he’ll make it to the top because he knew what he was doing all along. Though, their inability to sign C.C. Sabathia long-term does make me wonder. CC’s contract talks have been shelved which cannot be good news (and that translates to the minus in B-). But who knows, maybe when Sabathia is feeling the ticker tape fall on his face come November, he’ll resign then?

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

Because I just bought myself a Fedora hat and I feel rebellious, I’ll start my AL Central run-down in reverse order of last year’s standings. Eat it!

Kansas City Royals: Keep drinking that PR Kool Aid (and then add another starter)

A habit of mine is to browse the PR machines for each team whenever I need some research for my posts. Fortunately, I’ve learned to wear my reporter’s hat and cull the spin for what it is and extract the good bits of information. It’s a bit sad, however, to know that there are legions of fans out there who, in their hunger for news about their favorite teams, will eat up this stuff whole.

If we are to believe the Royal’s Press Machine, the team is poised to climb up the ranks this year. If only we could slice away one-third of the season, the Royals would’ve had a .500 record in 2007!

So with that in mind (and now that they have Trey Hillman as their new manager), the Royals think they’re all set for 2008, save a starter or two. Gil Meche will continue to be an underachieving, overpriced, overpaid veteran; Brian Bannister will be a decent second tier starter who can get you 12 wins, and then, well, then things get interesting. The enigma that is Zack Greinke will start out of the third slot in the rotation and you can stop counting there. Jorge de la Rosa could have a good year, but it doesn’t mean the Royals will stop looking for other starters (et tu, Bartolo?)

In their defense, the Royals have been able to hold on to a group of talented young players, out of which, superstar-in-the-making Alex Gordon stands out. Of course, last year’s pleasant surprise was Joakim Soria’s emergence as the team’s closer - and come to think of it, the departure of David Riske has left a gaping hole (ok, not really, but hey, it’s the Royals) in the bullpen, so a good set-up man wouldn’t hurt.

Chicago White Sox: *sigh* A center fielder (and maybe keep losing)

Anybody who’s going to say that Nick Swisher was the Sox’ pick to start at center field in 2008 needs to brush up on their White Sox news. After failing (miserably) to land a good CF, White Sox GM Kenny Williams decided to pull some of his trademarked “under-the-radar” moves. This time, however, the moves where so off the radar, they bewildered even the most ardent fans. First, he signed reliever Scott Linebrink to a 4-year, $19 mil deal. Four years! 19 million! His only move during the winter talks was trading for Carlos Quentin. Then he singed Alexei Ramirez, an unproven Cuban exile that can play short, second or the outfield; and then Williams broke the talent pool and traded for Swisher.

One thing’s clear: The Sox have lots of great players, they just don’t know what position they’ll play. With Ramirez, they have three short stops; ditto second base, Pablo Ozuna’s been the super sub for a while, so he’ll backup Richar there. And then there’s the outfield. Swisher can play some first, though he’s likely penciled for center, while Quentin is in left (or is that the other way around?). Jermaine Dye is a lock at right (though Swisher actually played some right field last year), and then the young outfielders, Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson will try to fill in the reserve spot.

The #1 goal this offseason was to improve the team via trades or free-agent signings. With the Garland-for-Cabrera trade, Williams struck quick, but then the ship fell apart. Torii Hunter signed with the Angels, Fukudome with the crosstown-rival Cubs, and even Andruw Jones relocated elsewhere. Nothing against Nick Swisher, but something tells me we could’ve gotten a better consolation prize.

So the Sox enter 2008 once again with a potent line-up that may or may not produce runs (we all know it’ll produce home runs, though), a starting rotation that is relying a wee too much on rookie or second year arms (and a few irregular vets) and a bullpen rich in question marks but with a formidable setup man (Linebrink) and closer (Bobby Jenks).

Come to think of it, the White Sox really just need to rebuild. But a good center fielder would’ve been nice.

Minnesota Twins: That new stadium already

Last year, the Twins needed money bad. This year, they could’ve use that money they never had. As expected, Torii Hunter skipped town; Santana is either going to become a free agent at the end of this year, or will be traded for way too much before the season starts; and with Joe Mauer signing a $33-million deal, Justin Morneau’s contract extension talks have stalled.

What happens in 2008 will depend greatly on what the Twins get in return for Santana, but one obvious gaping hole is Hunter’s departure from center field. Now that the Mets have entered the Santana sweepstakes, and have offered a young outfielder in their package, the Twins might move Santana soon enough to allow some flexibility before the season starts to sign Morneau. That is, if the Mets also include prospect Fernando Martinez, something the Twins want to seal the deal, but seems unlikely.

If only that new ball park were poised to open its gates. At least, the thing is finally getting built.

Detroit Tigers: Play their first game

No question that the Tigs are the most improved team this off season. They traded for two of the best young players in baseball, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, and they signed one of the better veteran short stops, both defensively and offensively, in Edgar Rentería.

The front line of their rotation looks something like: Verlander, Willis, Robertson, Bonderman and Kenny “It ain’t tar, its dirt” Rogers.

They have a solid bullpen, and with the return of flamethrower Joel Zumaya, Todd Jones’ role as closer might be in jeopardy. But that’s a good thing, Tigers fans.

Oh, right, and they still have Magglio Ordoñez, who came in second in MVP voting behind A-Rod.

Scary.

Cleveland Indians: Pay a visit to Miss Cleo

The Indians could very well shake up that magic 8-ball to know what’ll happen in 2008. Their roster has not been tinkered with (not much anyway), and except for the addition of INF Jamey Carroll and Japanese reliever Masahide Kobayashi, the same team that was one win away from the Fall Classic will step out on the field.

Granted, Travis Hafner missed a significant chunk of time last year, so his “return” to top form will boost a line-up that already features Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore.

•

So that’s that, the AL Central is again shaping up to be a tough division; the standings might actually end up looking similar to what they did in 2007 . Even though the White Sox made some moves, it’s not clear they’ve upgraded their outfield; the Twins are still trying to figure out what to do about Santana; the Royals are just a pinch of hope away from contending, and the Indians are playing it safe by not doing much. But it’s been the Tigers, by far, the team that stepped up to fulfill their needs.

Now that Jacobs Field is to be renamed Progressive Field, it needs a new nickname. It used to be “The Jake.” But what will it be now? “The Prog” is hardly acceptable. Anyone got any better ideas?

Tonight I stumbled upon an old Poynter.org column by Dr. Ink (aka Roy Peter Clark) about the best and worst team nicknames and I noticed the following reader comment:

The Indians were named for an American Indian player named Louis Sockalexis. The “Chief Wahoo” logo came along in the 1950, I think. The face is in the shape of a baseball glove, in case no one ever noticed. (Racist, my ass!).

Now, I’d never heard of Sockalexis, but Wikipedia says the commenter might have gotten his facts a little backwards, regarding how Cleveland got its name:

On the contrary, when the “Naps” sent longtime leader Napoleon Lajoie to the Philadelphia Athletics at the end of the 1914 season, owner Charles Somers asked the local newspapers to come up with a new name for the team. They chose “Indians” as a play on the name of the Boston Braves, then known as the “Miracle Braves” after going from last place on July 4 to a sweep in the 1914 World Series. Proponents of the name acknowledged that the Cleveland Spiders of the National League had sometimes been informally called the “Indians” during Sockalexis’ short career there, a fact which merely reinforced the new name.

So, that clears that up, to the extent that Wikipedia can reliably clear up anything.

But what about Chief Wahoo being shaped like a glove? I mean, maybe. But you really have to want it.

Can anybody see a baseball glove in the face of Cleveland’s mascot?

Of course, even if Wahoo’s face is shaped like a glove, that doesn’t make it any less racist.

NOTE: If you get a chance, click on the “Dr. Ink” hyperlink. It’s hilarious. Also, the Poynter column mentioned above includes a few errors by the usually reliable RPC. First of all, the Macon Whoopee were a hockey team, not a baseball team. And the Gonzaga team name, as a reader points out, is the Bulldogs, not the Zags.

I don’t think anyone is particularly surprised that the AL Cy Young has just been awarded to C.C. Sabathia. The voting was concluded before his postseason meltdown (and before runner-up Josh Beckett’s postseason kickassery). I am much more surprised that it’s the Indians’ second Cy Young win ever, with the first going to Hall of Famer (and famous spitballer) Gaylord Perry in ‘72. What, no love for Bob Feller or Bob Lemon? As it turns out, the Cy Young award wasn’t invented until 1956, when Cleveland’s best one-two punch prior to Sabathia-Carmona was aging ungracefully.

Nonetheless, this is a storied franchise that has fielded the likes of Cy Young himself, Napoleon Lajoie, Addie Joss, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Tris Speaker, Lou Boudreau, Mel Harder, Joe Sewell, Satchel Paige (who was, by then, quite old), fan favorite Rocky Colavito, Roger Maris, Luis Tiant, Bert Blyleven, Andre Thornton, Sandy Alomar Jr., Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton (every now and then), Orel Hershiser, Charles Nagy, Bartolo Colon (in the glory days), and Omar Vizquel. Phew! You would have thought at least one or two of the dominant pitchers on that list would have snagged a Cy somewhere in that lengthy history.

Which brings me to the trivia part of this post: the Cleveland Indians are one of just four founding teams of the American League to have played their entire history in one city. Can you name the other three?

1. Finally a World Series that I actually want to watch

So it’s Rockies vs. Red Sox. It’s nice to have the first truly compelling World Series matchup in, well, in a long, long time. I mean, does it get any better? It’s the best squad money and human ingenuity can devise, versus God’s own team.

For so many years now, the World Series has seen an seemingly unstoppable AL juggernaut take on some random, mediocre NL team which happened to rise to the top of an inferior league. Oh sure, once in a while the NL team gets a few breaks and manages to win the World Series, but we all understand this to have been just luck, and there is never really much doubt which team was actually the better squad.

Certainly, there have been a few compelling finishes, especially the 2001 matchup between the Yankees and the Diamondbacks when Luis Gonzalez managed to beat superpowered playoff ninja Mariano Rivera with a walkoff, jam-shot, bloop single in the bottom of the ninth inning of game seven. But as Derek Jeter said later, if the Yankees and the D-Backs replayed that inning 100 times, the Yankees would have won 99 of them.

The problem is that the National League has just been so weak for so many years. Even when an NL champ like the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals has won a major-league best 105 games, you knew in the back of your mind that they did it playing against the weakest division in baseball, and that the Red Sox had proven that they were actually the best team in baseball by winning 98 games in the AL East and beating the Yankees.

But now, for the first time in recent, or even not-so-recent, memory, we have a World Series matchup where we are not really sure who has the better chance to win. Sure, on paper the Red Sox seem to have better players, but the Rockies have some serious mojo going with their current streak. I don’t care what anyone says, if you win 21 out of 22 games, and those games were all baseball games, you are one of the best teams ever.

And this most recent streak actually has the effect of blinding us to just how good this team really is. After a lousy 10-16 April, the Rockies had the best record in the National League the rest of the way. They led the national league in virtually all hitting categories. The tallied the highest team fielding percentage in the history of baseball. And maybe most impressive of all, despite pitching half their games at Coors field, they posted the best ERA in the National League since the All-Star break.

Not to mention that the Rockies crushed the Red Sox in a head-to-head showdown at Fenway back in June, outscoring them 20-5 in a three-game series.

But the Red Sox have some mojo of their own, having just come back from a 3-1 deficit in dominating fashion (7-1, 12-2, and 11-2), and en route battering two of the best pitchers in the American League - C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona - to the tune of 23 runs in 16 1/3 innings pitched. Not to mention that the Sox have two of the greatest hitters in the history of playoffs in David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, whether you chose to go by stats or just by watching with your own two eyes.

It’s sure going to be fun watching those two hit in Coors Field. And it’s going to be a blast finding out what miracles God is going to pull out of his sleeve next on behalf of His Chosen Men In Purple.

2. All is well with the Universe: JD Drew and Julio Lugo have remembered that they suck

It was nice to see J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo returning to their normal selves after a cosmos-rattling game in which Drew hit a clutch, two-out grand slam and Lugo had a timely two run double.

This time, Drew came up in an almost identical situation, once again finding himself at bat with the bases loaded in the first inning, and happily, grounded into an inning-ending double play. Likewise, Lugo made an inexcusable error on an easy pop-up, giving the Indians a golden chance to tie up the game in the 7th.

But in any case, these are good omens for Red Sox fans. After a momentary collision with a parallel universe in which Drew and Lugo actually do helpful things in crucial situations, the universe is all back to normal now and the Sox can go back to being the team which compiled the best record in baseball, despite Drew posting a VORP of 15.1 (less than 2 points higher than Jacoby Ellsbury’s 13.6 in more than 400 additional at-bats), and Lugo actually posting a negative VORP of -1.3.

3. By my count, he still had another 162 pitches left

Fans of Daisuke Matsuzaka have to be really encouraged by his performance after a lackluster outing in game 3. Although his final line of 5 innings pitched doesn’t look that great, with the entire Boston pitching staff available to go with the exception of an injured Tim Wakefield, there was no reason to keep him in longer than 5.

If you are Terry Francona and you have the option of effectively shortening the game to those 5 innings by pitching Okajima and Papelbon for the last 4, you’d be crazy not to go to the bullpen early (although I have to say, I was aghast when Francona sent Okajima out to start a third inning after he barely escaped the 7th - there is no universe in which that was a good idea).

Most encouraging about Matsuzaka’s performance was that a guy whose only two real weaknesses this past year were walks and home runs, did not allow a single walk or home run to one of the best offenses in the game with its back to the wall. Not to mention that Matsuzaka did not allow a baserunner for the first 3 innings, and he only made 88 pitches in the five frames he threw.

The word is that Matsuzaka spent pretty much every waking minute since his previous start studying videotape, working on mechanics, and pondering how he could do better if there was a game seven. But then again, in this stereotyped world we live in, could we possibly expect any less than absolute hardcore-ness from an inscrutible Japanese like Matsuzaka? After all, Japanese people never panic, get tired, or die.

But the real point is, Matsuzaka showed that he can and will make adjustments, and that bodes well for continued improvement as he continues a major league career which is only just beginning. Read the rest of this entry »