As of this writing, Baseball Prospectus projects that the New York Mets have a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs this season. Although 6.5 games back in the Wild Card doesn’t sound utterly insurmountable, it’s more the fact that seven teams would have to fade away down the stretch that makes it improbable.

So this is the current situation for the Mets, as well as for Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, John Maine, and Carlos Beltran as they work their way back from their respective injuries that sunk any chances the Mets had at competing in 2009. With the season all but lost, how soon they return seems like a moot point these days.

Which is why I was a bit worried when I read Will Carroll’s “Under the Knife” article in BP, which says this about Beltran, who has been out since June 22nd with a bone bruise in his knee that just won’t heal:

Beltran has decided to accelerate the pace of his rehab, hoping to come back towards mid-August… Beltran made the informed decision based on the near certainty that he will need microfracture surgery and could miss much, if not all, of the 2010 season.

Yowza. Now, you have to respect a guy who refuses to give up, especially considering that some of my fellow Mets fans (well, those of us who are 64% brain-dead) insist on labeling the best centerfielder in baseball as ’soft’. But this sounds like a fool’s errand. I understand the “until the fat lady sings” mindset, but here’s the problem – the ‘end’ in this situation is not the conclusion of the 2009 season. Both the Mets and Beltran have a future in 2010, 2011, and so on that must take precendence at this point in time. If given the choice between 40 games of Carlos Beltran at 80% strength in 2009 and him at 100% (or close to it) for 100+ games in 2010, I will take the second option every time.

The Mets don’t need Beltran right now. But they would be far better off if they had him next year as early as possible.

In last night’s Dodger victory over the Giants to sweep a 3 game series, Dodgers reserve infielder Doug Mientkiewicz slapped a pinch-hit RBI double down the right field line and then made a horribly awkward and completely unnecessary dive into second base, severely dislocating his right shoulder in the process (pictured above).  At the time of the dive, no infielder was even within 20 feet of the second base bag.

Back in the clubhouse, Dodger trainers popped his shoulder back in, but then it popped right back out again, meaning Mientkiewicz is probably headed for surgery.

Sucks for Mientkiewicz, but what really makes this so frustrating for Dodgers fans is what Mientkiewicz cost the team.

Manager Joe Torre insisted the Dodgers sign Mientkiewicz to a minor league contract in the offseason (because Joe loves what he knows, and he knows Mientkiewicz from when he managed him back on the Yankees), and Torre was then bound and determined to shoehorn Mientkiewicz onto the major league squad, no matter how much Mientkiewicz did not fit in with the rest of the roster.

“I like how he is not afraid to get his shirt dirty,” Torre said back in late March.

But of course, forcing Mientkiewicz onto the roster ultimately meant that the Dodgers had to trade away Delwyn Young to Pittsburgh, only to have Mientkiewicz tear up his shoulder on a ridiculously foolish play just two days after the trade.

So now the Dodgers have no Delwyn Young *and* they’ve lost Mientkiewicz, so they’ll have to call up either Blake DeWitt or Xavier Paul, both of whom would be much better served getting at-bats every day than riding the pine in the majors.

But Torre was right about one thing. Mientkiewicz definitely was not afraid to get his shirt dirty.

Many have been predicting the San Francisco Giants to suck, and suck hard, this season. Some have even predicted a 100-loss campaign. So how are the Giants doing so far? Let’s have a look…

As is to be expected, the Giants are last in the Major Leagues with 27 runs scored in 11 games, or an average of 2.45 runs per game.

Sole good hitter Aaron Rowand is struggling at the plate and in the field, due to the fact that he probably has a broken rib.

Centerfielder Dave Roberts will likely have surgery on his knee and be out for months.

In other injury news, top outfield prospect Nate Schierholtz is out with a wounded right shin, outfielder Randy Winn hurt his ankle by hitting himself with his own bat, and reliever Keiichi Yabu has blurred vision after hitting himself in the eye with a rubber band.

Switch-hitting outfielder Dan Ortmeier has been so sucky hitting from the left side that he and the team have made a mutual decision to make him an exclusively right-handed batter from now on.

Putative team ace Barry Zito (0-2) has already been so terrible that he was booed by the home crowd during his introduction at the Giants’ home opener in San Francisco.

Even The Onion is piling on the Giants now, with their article “San Francisco Giants Band Together To Score Run.”

UPDATED 2/8/08 9:24 am–below

Curt Schilling has a shoulder injury. And according to reports, it’s more serious than the injury that caused him to miss 7 weeks last season.

Curt Schilling has visited Dr. Craig Morgan, who performed surgery on his shoulder in 1995. Sources have told reporters in Boston that Morgan feels Schilling needs surgery, while the Red Sox would like him to rehab his shoulder without surgery. The sources also say that the Red Sox have inquired about voiding his contract, which calls for a base pay of $8 million with several more million in incentives. Obviously, Schilling does not want his contract voided.

At this point, the injury is believed to be a rotator cuff or labrum tear. Surgery would end Schilling’s year, almost certainly. And he’s said this is definitely his last year.

Neither Schilling nor the Red Sox have publicly commented on the injury or the dispute as of yet, which is an ominous sign. If Schill had just visited Dr. Morgan to say “Aah,” he would have no doubt quickly released a statement to quash these rumors.

Schilling had a physical before he and the Sox inked this deal. Did they miss something? Or did he hurt his shoulder pulling the lever for McCain on Tuesday?

UPDATE: Schilling has “screaming pain” in his arm and”can’t throw a baseball, and has pain simply shaking hands or opening a door.”

From the Boston Globe:

Schilling will attempt to give the shoulder-strengthening program another try. If he doesn’t respond as well as he did last season, he has the option to walk away from his contract and have surgery to prepare for ‘09 with another team…there are no shock waves on Yawkey Way. Both sides knew there wasn’t much left in his right shoulder before all this came out.

Here, in its entirety, is the statement released by the Red Sox:

Curt Schilling was examined by Red Sox doctors in January after he reported feeling right shoulder discomfort. Curt has started a program of rest, rehabilitation and shoulder strengthening in an attempt to return to pitching.

Seems that Schilling’s desire to have surgery has gone by the wayside. Neither side has addressed the supposed contract-voiding debate, but Curt has since posted a response of his own on his blog:

There have been disagreements these past few weeks in an effort to provide me with a solution that would allow me to pitch as much as possible during the 2008 season. At no time did I ever consider taking a course of action against the clubs wishes. In the end, regardless of who agreed with whom, I have chosen the clubs course of action and will vigorously pursue any and every option I can to be able to help this team to another World Series title in 2008.

Please understand that a lot of what has been reported is not true. When the club feels it’s appropriate to further discuss the details of this issue publicly I will elaborate…

After being diagnosed by the Red Sox medical staff I sought a second opinion, as anyone would, and when it became clear there was disagreement (which is not uncommon by the way), I agreed to see an independent Doctor from a list the Red Sox provided me, for the third opinion.

They were saying on the radio this morning that Curt’s injury is not a labrum or a rotator cuff, as previously speculated, but a problem with his biceps, according to the Boston Herald:

It is Morgan’s diagnosis that Schilling’s main problem stems from the bicipital groove, the portion of the bicep tendon which runs outside of the shoulder…and is an irreversible problem, if just using the Red Sox’ recommended remedy of a cortisone shot and rehabilitation.

“In my opinion a conservative approach will be unsuccessful, and that a surgical option is medically the correct thing to do and has the only potential shot of him being able to salvage his coming season,” said Morgan, who estimates Schilling could be ready to pitch by the All-Star break with the procedure…

[The third doctor] agreed with Morgan’s diagnosis that the pitcher’s biceps tendon had become diseased, but also concluded Schilling’s rotator cuff was a significant problem, and he wouldn’t be ready to pitch during in 2008 if Morgan’s proposed surgery was performed.

Morgan says the biceps (or the tendons?) in question “look like spaghetti.” I suppose that’s the medical term.

Just a few days after we wondered in this space what if anything was wrong with David Ortiz to cause him to hit for higher average but less power this season, the answer comes straight from Ortiz himself: he has been secretly playing through a knee injury since last June!

According to Ortiz he first injuried himself during a batting practice at Yankee Stadium last June when he caught his foot while fielding a bunt in some webbing put down by the Yankees  to protect the area around home plate.  Ortiz had ‘a couple” of MRIs over the remainder of the season, which revealed a torn meniscus in his right knee, but doctors said it was not major and Ortiz was little discomfort, so he played through it.

As soon as Ortiz stopped playing baseball in the offseason, the pain went away entirely, and he also felt nothing in spring training, so he saw no need to get treatment.  However, yesterday Ortiz revealed that the knee has been bothering him ever since the season started “much more than it normally used to.” He says the knee prevents him from getting into as deep a crouch in the batters box as he normally does, forcing him to “stand up more” at the plate, and ”When I stand up more, my body go forward more than I normally do, and it changes things.”

All of which goes a long way toward explaining Ortiz’s uncharacteristic numbers at the plate this year.

If last night’s Yankees victory over the Red Sox teaches us anything, it’s that the Yankees are a scary team when they’re able to field a healthy major league starting pitcher.Unfortunately for the Bombers, they haven’t been able to do that very often this season.

Last night, Chien Ming Wang went 6 1/3 innings, giving up seven hits and two runs, while walking three and striking out five. That’s not even spectacular. It’s just good. It’s adequate. But it’s a hell of a lot better than most of the Yankees pitchers have fared this season.

Thanks to injuries, the Yankees have become the first team in baseball history to employ seven rookie starters through their first 42 games.

In addition to pitching injuries, New York has had to play without Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon for weeks at a time.

The Yankees had so many injuries to pitchers through the first month of the season that they fired their trainer, who only had the job a few months.

And that’s no recipe for success. You know makes for a very tasty recipe? Boston knows.

The Red Sox, who now hold a 9.5 game lead over the Yankees, recently put Josh Beckett on the DL, making Beckett the first Red Sox pitcher to miss a start this season. And his injury — a cut finger — shouldn’t even count. That’s not an injury. It’s a hindrance. It’s a bother.

There is little doubt that the Yankees’ hopes for mounting a comeback hinge entirely on their pitching staff’s ability to return to form and stay healthy. Mussina must regain the consistently he had last year. Clemens must be worth the multi-multi-multimillion dollar investment. Philip Hughes must prove he’s ready for the bigs.

That’s a lot of “ifs”.

Of course, if the Red Sox are going to stay on top, Beckett’s finger needs to heal, Schilling’s knees have got to continue to (improbably) support his gut, Wake’s knuckleball has to keep knuckling (it didn’t look so hot last night).

Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt if J.D. Drew stayed healthy, although that might be asking a bit much.

This was quick, even for Chipper. From the AP:

Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones sprained his left ankle on his first at-bat Monday and was removed from the game St. Louis.

Jones broke awkwardly from the box on a grounder to first and jogged a few steps before turning around and limping to the dugout. The team said Jones, who has been plagued by foot problems in recent seasons, was day to day.

Jones is batting .222 (4-for-18) this spring with one double and two RBIs.

A lot players, as they get older, make the move to the AL so that they can continue to pile up stats and pad their Hall of Fame candidacies as a DH (see: Mike Piazza). But Chipper needs more than just a DH role. He is gonna have to start playing the game over the internet from the safety of a padded room. And even then, he’d probably still develop carpal tunnel syndrom.

Of course, there is one possibility here that probably needs mentioning. Sarah Green is taking in some Cactus League action in Tucson this week and yesterday reported that she and intrepid gal-pal Suz Tolwinski won Hooters coupons at the Diamondbacks game. Now, I don’t know if the Braves offer similar Hooters giveaways, but if they do it’s a good bet that Chipper got his hands on a few of those coupons and is just faking the ankle sprain so that he can spend his afternoons lunching at his favorite restaurant.

Yes, that’s right: Ken Griffey Jr. is injured yet again.

He can’t even stay healthy in the offseason! This time, it’s a broken bone in his left hand, that he suffered in what reports are only calling a “home accident” because Griffey will not allow anyone to say exactly how the injury occured.

You know what that means!  Either the way he got injuried was terribly embarrassing, or else he got injured doing while something he shouldn’t have been doing.

Reports are now saying that Griffey broke his hand “playing with his children” but that could easily be part of a cover story. What do you think? Was Griffey injured while carrying deer meat for his children, or does “playing with his children” really mean he was popping wheelies on his motorcycle (for his children)?