I can’t quite explain why those in the new-age statistics community fawn over the “three-true outcomes” player. We love seeing them hit a ball 450-feet, we applaud their walks, and are entertained by their ever climbing strikeout totals. But this year, that TTO club is on the verge of losing one of their true members – Jack Cust.

Ever since he was acquired by Oakland a couple of seasons ago, Cust was unleashed on the world as a prototypical TTO guy. In 2008, Cust whiffed 197 times, had 111 free trips to first and hit 33 round trippers with a .231 batting average. A hallmark season.

But in 2009, Cust has been doing something far more often than he has thus far in his career. He’s actually swinging the bat. In years past, Cust swung at roughly 62% of pitches in the strike zone (MLB average is around 66%). That number has climbed to 71.4% in 2009. Moreover, Cust is swinging at pitches outside the zone more frequently as well (up to 21% of balls out of the zone compared to roughly 15% over his first two seasons in Oakland).

He’s still on pace to hit 32 HRs, and he’s still batting .230 (thanks to a much lower BABiP than in years past). However, as a result of putting the ball in play more often, his strikeout rate has fallen considerably, from 41.5% and 41% in ‘07 and ‘08 respectively, all the way down to 28.1% this season. What’s more, Cust is now walking in just 11.7% of his plate appearances, a steep decline from his numbers in ‘07 (21%) and ‘08 (18.8%).

So if his batting average is remaining fairly constant in comparison to his career numbers even though he’s taking fewer pitches, that means his OBP is taking a pretty big hit. Between 2007-2008, Cust had a very strong .390 OBP. His 2009 number currently stands at a below-average .320. And if that weren’t enough, all those extra swings aren’t resulting in more extra-base hits either – he’s just making more outs and making life easier on opposing pitchers.

I don’t know if the A’s staff specifically asked Cust to cut down on his Ks or if he himself decided to do so. But with 68 games in the books, the 2009 version of Jack Cust is considerably worse than the previous incarnations.

Growing up, I heard announcers and commentators talking all the time about how the ever-climbing strikeout totals in the early 1990’s was a bad thing. Former players would say things like “in my day, you were embarrassed as hell to strikeout 100 times a year”. I’m not saying that strikeouts are a good thing. An out is an out. But by trying to cut down on his Ks, Jack Cust is becoming a lesser player. So figure that one out on your own.

Currently in second place in the AL West, the Oakland A’s are (surprise, surprise) performing better than most had expected of them prior to the season. After trading away their top hitter (Swisher) and pitcher (Haren) during the off-season, only androids (like Marvin here) – and UmpBump’s own Nick and Coley – figured that Oakland would be in the thick of the division race in 2008. But lookie what we have here.

Despite being 3 1/2 games behind Anaheim (and no, I will not call them LA), the A’s have by far the best run differential in their division, scoring 4.5 runs per game while giving up a paltry 3.8. Yes, it’s probably still too early to look too deeply into things like this, but it is worth a mention. So what do they need to make their push towards the post season? More pop.

Although being able to score 4.5 runs per game is pretty good, I don’t see how they can keep it up as they are currently constructed. Their team batting average is .255, which is below league average. But with runners in scoring position, that number jumps to .278, which third highest in the league. There’s a decent chance that those two numbers will become closer together by the end of the year. And I’m betting that it’s going to be their average with RISP that’s going to come down a bit, which is going to make their offense slightly below average.

While the addition of Frank Thomas certainly does help, unless Eric Chavez remains healthy, Jack Cust is the only guy in the lineup with considerable pop. There is currently no one on the squad with double-digit homerun totals. As a team, they are 25th in all of MLB in the category and 27th in slugging percentage – neither figure elicits images of a playoff-bound team.

I do think their pitching is for real, however. Or at least, good enough. I am watching Joe Blanton’s K and walk rates, and I do think that Dana Eveland’s walks are going to come back to haunt him one of these days. But even if one of these guys falter, they have a perfectly good replacement just waiting in the bullpen by the name of Chad Gaudin. Throw in what appears to be a stellar defense behind them – despite the presence of Cust in left -, and I think they can keep this good thing going. And if they had a little more muscle, I’d be pretty sure of it.

-What They Need Index-

Today the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Oakland DH Jack Cust has made history. With six games to go this year, Cust has played in 118 games and struck out 154 times, most in the American League. Though Cust didn’t join the A’s until May 4, he has the sixth-highest strikeout total in Oakland history.

The major-league mark for most strikeouts with fewer than 125 games played is 158, held by Bo Jackson (1987) and Melvin Nieves (1996).

Cust has a pretty relaxed attitude about his new record.

From the SF Chronicle:

“I’m just going to strike out a lot,” he said. “I always lead every league I’m in in strikeouts, so I figure if it’s the major leagues, at least that’s the best league. It’s better than leading the Pacific Coast League.”

Hard to argue with that.

The Chronicle points out that next year, Cust will be a favorite to break the single-season strikeout record:

Next year, Cust might have a shot at the single season record of 195, set by Cincinnati’s Adam Dunn in 2004.

Umm…earth to the Chronicle. Dunn’s record is yesterday’s news.

I can’t keep track. Do we still care if a player strikes out a lot? It seems to me that we used to blast guys like Dunn for striking out as much as he does. But I don’t hear those same complaints as much anymore. And I certainly don’t hear anybody complaining about Ryan Howard, the new strikeout king.

Have we changed our tune? Is it now okay to strikeout a lot, as long as you put up gaudy power numbers?