Jacoby Ellsbury Secretly Sucks at Defense

Earlier this season, Red Sox CF (and All-Hot Team honoree) Jacoby Ellsbury tied the MLB record for putouts in a game — and set a new club record — with 12 catches in one game. His speed on the basepaths and in the outfield is legend; in his still-young career, he’s stolen home (against the Yankees!), scored from second on a wild pitch, and is on pace to break the team’s club record for steals in a season, a mark that has stood since 1954. (For a jaw-dropping account of Jacoby’s speed in high school, check out this MLB.com article by Ian Browne.)

On the whole, Jacoby has been accepted as an above-average centerfielder, though perhaps not quite as gifted as the man he replaced, Coco “Did you see that catch Coco made?” Crisp. The speed helps — he always seems to be chasing things down out there. And leaping. I seem to recall a lot of leaping.

So imagine my surprise today when, in the course of a quibble with a coworker about the (in)utility of fielding percentage, I noticed that Jacoby Ellsbury has the second-lowest UZR of any major league centerfielder. Now, he’s not half as bad as the worst centerfielder, Vernon Wells, who weighs in at -20.4, but Ellsbury’s -8.5 is shocking. And appalling.

And while last year, in 546.2 innings, his UZR was at least positive (an even 3.0), that’s still nothing to write home about.

I can only conclude that I — along with Boston’s more sober-faced, straight-laced commentators — have been bamboozled, fooled, duped by our own eyes. From now on, I, for one, will be hardening my heart, pursing my lips, and looking past the smoldering eyes and impossibly white teeth (not to mention the washboard abs and oh-so-touchable hair) and observing young Ellsbury’s attempts at defense more carefully.

BallHype: hype it up!


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UmpBump’s Week 13 Fantasy Results

It was lucky Week 13 in the UmpBump Fantasy League. Here’s what befell each of us:

Sarah: The Somerville Green Sox suffered a 9-2 beatdown at the hands of Box89RowKKSeat14, Ania’s team. Although, I have to say, neither of our offenses were very good this week. I only took the RBI category (by a single ribbie) and steals (which I won even though Jacoby Ellsbury hasn’t stolen a base since June 17). Of course, my pitching got lit up again, in what now feels like the norm for the Green Sox, especially Pedro Martinez, by the Yankees, and Matt Cain, by Cleveland. Thank the hardball gods that interleague play is over. Hot: Johnny Cueto, Ian Kinsler, Vernon Wells. Not: Martinez, Cain, Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, Rickie Weeks.

Paul: This week shouldn’t have been as close a match-up as it ended up being between myself and my fantasy-challenged colleague, Coley Ward. My players racked up a .423 OBP to Coley’s paltry .326 and I won total bases 123-97. Despite this, I still lost runs scored, tied in home runs, and barely won RBIs. So I’m not sure if it was a successful week offensively speaking. It was a mixed bag on the pitching side as well, having a dominant week in my peripheral categories (0.97 WHIP and 3.92 K/BB) but not having those numbers translate into victories in wins or ERA. In short, it was a week that proved the sabermetric axiom regarding sample sizes. No matter how successfully you execute – whether it be by getting on base and hitting for extra bases for batters or walking few and striking out many for pitchers – over a short period of time you may not get the desired result. But if my team can keep dominating those very categories, then I will be just fine over the long haul. Oh, and I ended up winning the week 6-4-2. So… Maybe I shouldn’t be complaining. Hot: David Wright, Adam “I Hate Baseball SO MUCH” Dunn, Matt Holliday, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Duchscherer, Cliff Lee. Not: Greg Smith, Trevor Hoffman, Chris B. Young.

Coley : Paul shouldn’t be complaining. He was lucky I didn’t beat him this week. Josh Hamilton came to the plate yesterday afternoon with the bases loaded and a chance to win the RBI column for the Crunkball All-Stars, but he popped out. And that was ok, because it was still a 3-1 game between the Phillies and the Rangers, still a save situation, and I figured that meant I’d get a save out of either Brad Lidge or C.J. Wilson and I’d win saves for the week. Unfortunately, the Rangers scored three more runs that inning and Wilson came in and pitched in a non-save situation. So Paul, you got lucky. Hot : Mark Teixeira, Jered Weaver, Jair Jurrjens, Dice-K. Not : Chone Figgins, Brett Myers.

Alejandro: I checked the standings early Sunday morning and I found myself down in the count, but definitely not out. I was knocked around all week, was up and down, but kept my head up, and lo and behold, the results are in. My offense surged on its last day and over came the difference for a solid 8-4 victory that places me 4.5 games out of first place. Jermaine Dye (who’s been on a torrid tear) helped the White Sox sweep the Cubs (along side Alexei Ramirez, who’s having a solid season himself). It’ll be a tough week ahead, though, as Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla, and Magglio Ordoñez are hurt. Hot: Hanley Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Alex Gordon (barely), Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Kerry Wood, B.J. Ryan. Not: Vicente Padilla, Todd Wellemeyer, Eric Chavez, Hunter Pence, A.J. Pierzynski.

Standings (games behind):

  1. Paul – ElDuquesInjuryReport ( – )
  2. Alejandro – Center Field Stud ( 4.5 )
  3. Scott – Utley’s Firm Quads ( 6 )
  4. Doug – Swamp Dragons ( 8.5 )
  5. Sarah – Somerville Green Sox ( 14.5 )
  6. Kirk – Montefusco’s Revenge ( 15 )
  7. Ania – Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 20 )
  8. Larry – croutchyoldman ( 27.5 )
  9. Bryan – Pirates in ‘08! ( 29.5 )
  10. Coley – Crunkball All-Stars ( 30 )
  11. Caitlin – caitlin grace ( 32.5 )
  12. Sooze – freebase my balls ( 34 )

BallHype: hype it up!


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TGIF Reading: That word, I do not think it means what you think it means.

Jacoby Ellsbury has been suffering from an “aggravated groin” (Fenway West). The other night at the ballpark, my friend asked me, “An aggravated groin? What’s an aggravated groin? How did he get an aggravated groin?” I replied, “I’ll have to get on that.” What I meant, was, I’ll have to figure that out. Badump-CHING! Tacoby Bellsbury should be back in the lineup tonight.

With Noah Lowry on the DL and Barry Zito headed to the pen, talk of a six-man rotation in San Francisco has died down. This pleases me, because six-man rotations are one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard of. Teams already have a tough enough time finding five decent starters, and as it is, the fifth slot on most teams is something of a revolving door. And the idea of a 25-man roster consisting of perhaps 13 pitchers is equally disgusting. But as Giants Win notes, the larger concern for the San Fran squad may be their utter and complete lack of offense—on pace to score fewer runs than a dead ball era team. Oh my God.

I, like many, thought Phil Hughes’ “oblique strain” was code for “needs to go work out his suckage in the minors.” But now they’re saying it’s a stress fracture in one of his ribs. Hughes says he has “no idea” how he got it. But how do you fracture a rib and not realize it? Given that he also suffered a strained hamstring and a sprained ankle last year, NYY fans have to be hoping this is nothing more than a run of bad luck. But on Bronx Banter, it sounds like hope (not to mention patience) is running out.

Lone Star Ball gives Mindy McCready’s dad an Inigo Montoya Award. Any cross-pollination between baseball and The Princess Bride is always appreciated.

I like the Brewers. I have three of them on my fantasy team. I picked them to upset the Cubs for the NL Central title. But I don’t see how they’re going to do that without Ben Sheets. His first three starts filled me with hope. His subsequent triceps strain, despair. Now I don’t know what to think. Fortunately, I have the Hardball Times and pitch FX to tell me what’s what. Unfortunately, they also think the triceps tightness could be related to a rotator cuff issue. Nooooooooooooooo…..

Did you see Frank Thomas hit that triple a few days back? Did you wonder, whoah, when does Frank Thomas hit a triple? So did MopUpDuty. My favorite nugget from this post: Mark McGwire had only 6 triples in his entire career.

This week’s Metro column, on why the Rays are for real, but the other April surprise in the AL East, the Orioles, are not.

And finally, the Nats have a song. So Bugs and Cranks came up with hilarious ditties for all the other teams, too! I will now joyfully sing along to the new, awesome, Red Sox fan song:

We’re rawkous (raucous!) for the Red Sox!

We’re rawkous for the Red Sox!

We’re crazy and we’re awesome, brah!

We’re rawkous for the Red Sox!

Sully and Fitzy and Paddy Go Bragh

We’ll cut yer fuckin’ face if you look at us wrong!

So let’s go Nation of Red Sox fans!

Let’s throw some pizza in the stands!

Let’s go Red Sox!

As the lyrics of Jonathan Papelbon’s warm-up song (that *Dropkick Murphys tune from The Departed) sort of sound to me like, “I’m a sailor BRAAAAAH! And I lost my BRAAAAAH!”, I’m happy to see the emphatic syllable making the rounds in other Sox-related shanties.

*The lyrics were actually penned by Woody Guthrie. The real lyrics are, “I’m a sailor peg and I lost my leg.” The leg part, I get—but peg? Is that like, “I’m a sailor, Peg” (as if to his girlfriend, Peggy)? Inquiring minds want to know.

BallHype: hype it up!


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JaCoco Crispbury

All the talk in Boston this weekend is about our two centerfielders. There’s no debate among the Fenway Faithful as to who should get the job; Coco Crisp has had two years to establish himself in the position, and has failed to do so. Jacoby Ellsbury came up big in the pennant race, and proved himself such a spark plug that manager Terry Francona had no choice but to keep playing him—especially after Coco posted a .182 average in the postseason.

We feel for Coco, no doubt. We know a broken finger can really mess with a guy’s swing, and we love to watch him fling himself all over the outfield. But at the end of the day, Covelli Loyce Crisp did not live up to our (admittedly high) expectations. Coco’s last two years in Cleveland looked like this:

139 G/15 HR/.297 AVG/.344 OBP/.446 SLG/.790 OPS

145 G/ 16 HR/.300 AVG/.345 OBP/.465 SLG/.810 OPS

His two years in Boston? Like this:

105 G/8 HR/.264 AVG/.317 OBP/.385 SLG/.702 OPS

145 G/6 HR/.268 AVG/.330 OPB/.382 SLG/.712 OPS

Even though Boston’s fourth outfielder is likely to get at least fifty starts with Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew at the corners, Coco is a professional and wants the starting job. And naturally, so does Ellsbury. Yet despite Coco’s stated preference for a trade over a bench role, the media circus swirling around them, and the mutually exclusive desires of both, there seem to be no hard feelings between the two. In fact, they seem nigh inseparable….

They warm up together…

 

They run sprints together…

They talk about gloves together…

Bert and Ernie even sign autographs together!

Schlemiel, Schlimazel, Hasenpfeffer Incorporated!

BallHype: hype it up!


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Feet of Clay (and other strange news)

Run, run like the wind!To most Red Sox fans, there’s no man faster than Jacoby Ellsbury. The kid’s projected to steal 32 bases next year after swiping 9 bags in the majors in 33 games last season, without getting caught. His first big league hit came when he beat out an infield single, running so fast not even the TV crew was quite prepared. We watched him dash from second base to home plate on wild pitch, and score standing up. Considering the organization had disdained speed for decades, it wasn’t surprising that many Sox fans had to scrape their jaws off the floor.

But actually, as it turns out, Jacoby Ellsbury may not be the fastest man on earth. He may not even be the fastest man in the Red Sox organization.

Pitching prospect Clay Buchholz, who threw a no-hitter in his second career start, was a champion sprinter in high school. He recently challenged a certain Phillies prospect to a footrace for “talking smack” about pitchers while the two were training at the Athletes Performance Institute near Penascola, Florida. Moreover, writes Baseball Prospectus, “While at Angelina college, Buchholz was also the best hitter on the team, and would still have been drafted in the first ten rounds as an outfielder if he’d never pitched.”

But could Clay beat Ellsbury in a track meet? The world may never know. Despite recent rumors that the two had squared off, Buchholz insists it ain’t so:

“I’ve already been told,” he said, “that I’ll be fined if I race against Ellsbury.”

If someone can get me a reliable source with the name of the Phillies prospect and the outcome of the race, I’ll send you UmpBump stickers!

But I thought they were real!Other strange news:

Item 1: In case you missed it, Pedro Martinez and Juan Marichal were filmed at a cock fight in the DR. Aside from the issues of animal cruelty and cultural difference which the two-year old video raised, the news spawned new heights of adolescent creativity in headline-writing bloggers everywhere.

Item 2: What, Debbie Clemens took PEDs too? Surely you jest!

Item 3: Livan Hernandez finally has a home with the Twins. But there are numerous free agents still available, including Barry Bonds, Kenny Lofton, Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Shawn Green, Mike Piazza, Shannon Stewart, Armando Benitez, Josh Fogg, Freddy Garcia, Tony Graffanino, Jeff Weaver, Tony Clark, Trot Nixon, Sammy Sosa, Corey Koskie, and Corey Patterson. I know there are teams out there that still have holes to fill, benches to populate, money to spend. Pitchers and catchers report in two days! And, of course, Julio Franco is still available. Won’t someone sign him please? The man’s got a good six months before he turns 50.

BallHype: hype it up!


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UmpBump Presents: The All-Mormon Baseball Team

We’ve done the All-Smith team. We’ve done the All-Canadian team versus the All-Jewish team. And now UmpBump brings you: the All-Mormon team.

Mormon: Roy HalladayThere have been nearly enough Mormons in the majors to support a 40-man roster. One thing the All-Mormon team won’t be short on is starting pitching. They’ve got right-handed All-Star Roy Halladay as the ace of the staff (lifetime ERA of 3.63 and Cy Young winner), followed by another All-Star righthander in Vernon Law (1950-1967, ERA of 3.77). After that, they’ve got lefty All-Star Bruce Hurst (1980-1994, ERA of 3.92), righty Kelly Downs (1986-1993, ERA of 3.86) and still-promising righty Jeremy Guthrie (4.11 ERA)

For a closer, it’s hard to do much better than Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley, a six-time All Star, an MVP, and a Cy Young Award winner. They’ve even got a decent set-up man in the form of All-Star reliever Rick Mormon: Dennis EckersleyAguilera (1985-2000, 3.57 ERA). Unfortunately, the middle relief is much less inspiring–Kyle Farnsworth (4.47 ERA), Mike Fetters (3.86 ERA), Jim Gott (3.87 ERA), Ryan Jensen (5.06 ERA), and Jason Johnson (4.99 ERA).

Onto the offense! What kind of lineup could the Church of Latter Day Saints run out there?

Leading off and playing centerfield, you’d have speedy rookie Jacoby Ellsbury—and while I do doubt very much he’ll be hitting .353 for the rest of his career, it’s not a bad start.

Batting second and playing first base, I’ll go with career .289 hitter Wally Joyner, an All-Star and a lefty, who also has some pop.

Mormon: Harmon KillebrewThird, who but Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew (1954-1975)? Don’t be fooled by his career .256 batting average. The man compiled a nice .376 OBP by walking his way to victory. Oh, and the 573 homers weren’t bad either. Killebrew played 3B, OF, and 1B in his career, but for the purposes of this exercise, I’m DH-ing him.

In the cleanup spot, it’s got to be MVP second baseman Jeff Kent. A career .290 hitter, Kent has 365 home runs and is a six-time All Star. And, he always bats fourth. Always.

In the five-hole, it’s All-Star Dale “The Murph” Murphy (1976-1993). A .265 right-handed hitter, he also hit for power (racking up 398 career Mormon: Jeff Kenthomers). The two-time MVP also played Gold Glove-worthy right field.

Sixth, the left fielder, Dane Iorg (1977-1986). He bats left, to the tune of .276.

Batting seventh, the third baseman, All-Star Vance Law (1980-1991). The son of Vern, above, Vance hit just .256 but managed some power.

Batting eighth and playing short? None other than Bobby Crosby. The 2004 Rookie of the Year may bat just .240, sure, but the only other option was Luis Gomez (1974-1981), who had a career average of .210 and never hit a single home run.

Mormon: Dale MurphyNinth, the catcher, Alan Ashby (1973-1989). He hits an uninspiring .245, but at least he’s a switch-hitter.

Who do we have on the bench? Ken Hubbs (1961-1963) is a defensive replacement/injury fill-in for Jeff Kent. Hubbs was the first player to win a Gold Glove the same year he collected the Rookie of the Year trophy. Despite hitting only .247, he was considered among the premiere second basemen in the game during his brief time in the majors. (Tragically, he died in a plane crash at the age of 22.)

No team is complete without a fourth outfielder. I suggest righty Barry Bonnell (1977-1986) for this purpose, as he hits a respectable .272. And as anMormon: Bobby Crosby overall utilityman, I’ll go with Brian Banks (1996-2003), who hit only .246 but played most of the positions on the field at some point during his career and was a switch hitter. The backup catcher is John Buck, who hits a paltry .237 but at least has occasional pop.

The result? Not a bad team. Solid starting pitching and a great closer, not to mention one of the best 3-4-5 combos you could hope for. Two Hall of Famers, and two other guys who could feasibly be elected someday. Some Cy Young winners, some Rookies of the Year, some Gold Glovers, MVPs and All-Stars. They’re just a couple of converts away from fixing their middle relief problem.

The All-Mormon Team is definitely a playoff contender. And they’d definitely beat the Canadians.

BallHype: hype it up!


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Save Jacoby!

Late yesterday, when word leaked out that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had removed the “untouchable” label from young centerfield sparkplug Jacoby Ellsbury in the Johan Santana sweepstakes, Bostonians immediately began making contingency plans. Option A: Grab one of Big Papi’s 33-ounce bats and use it to smash Epstein’s hands, preventing him from signing any deal involving the popular rookie. Option B, should Option A fail: When Minnesota GM Bill Smith and his goons when they arrive to collect, form a human chain with Jacoby safe inside.

Assuming that cooler heads will prevail in the halls of Yawkey Way and that the Red Sox will lose out on lefty ace Santana and retain Ellsbury, there will still be plenty of teams interested in Boston’s other centerfielder, the defensively spectacular Coco Crisp—whom Ellsbury’s phenomenal play renders expendable. In fact, if the Red Sox were determined to get a lefty starter in exchange for Crisp, there are plenty of other deals to consider. For instance, the Atlanta Braves are in the market for a new CF and have prospects to deal, including lefty pitcher JoJo Reyes. In Baltimore, they want new everything, and almost nobody is off-limits, including lefty pitcher Erik Bedard. If the Marlins can’t get a centerfielder as part of a deal for Cabrera, they might be willing to part with southpaw Dontrelle Willis as part of a deal for Crisp. The Brewers have pitching to spare, including lefty Chris Capuano, and even Coco’s mediocre offense would be an upgrade over Bill Hall. The Padres, Giants, and Rangers are all looking to upgrade at centerfield as well, and the Sox have been talking with Billy Beane about a move involving Crisp and young righty pitcher Danny Haren, whose UFH should help him fit right in in the Hub. Crisp could be part of a deal with any of these ballclubs.

The fact that so many teams are hunting for centerfielders only underlines the fact that the Red Sox should not be induced to part with Ellsbury for any price—even for Santana. Not only did Ellsbury perform way above his pay grade down the stretch in September, his insertion into the ALCS lineup saved Boston’s season. He’s already a front-runner for 2008’s Rookie of the Year. While I would be loath to see Santana end up in pinstripes, such a scenario is still preferable to watching in horror as the Red Sox go temporarily insane and empty their savings account to get Johan for themselves.

BallHype: hype it up!


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To Bunt or Not To Bunt?

That is the question. The answer? Depends on how fast you are. In today’s GameDay column, I note that the Red Sox are bunting again because they’re actually a fast team for the first time in living memory. (I mean middle-aged living memory, not ridiculously old living memory, when you probably can’t remember much anyways.) With Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, and now Jacoby Ellsbury, these Red Sox like to run. A quick look at some of their speediness statistics this year (I combined Ellsbury’s minor league stats with his 17 games in the majors; to see them separated out, click here):

Coco Crisp: 24 steals, 83% success rate. 25 doubles, 7 triples.

Julio Lugo: 28 steals, 82% success rate. 34 doubles, 2 triples.

Jacoby Ellsbury: 37 steals, 86% success rate. 18 doubles, 5 triples.

Perhaps, then, it shouldn’t surprise us to see the Red Sox bunting since the rosters expanded. Heck, with the extreme shift David Ortiz often faces, even he’s been known to drop a bunt down the third baseline and chug to the first base bag before the opposing team understands what’s going on.

For those of you who don’t know Ellsbury yet, just you wait. His first game in the bigs, he hit an infield roller over to the right field side. It looked like an easy out. In fact, the Sox announcers did one of these: “Aaand it’s a slow, bouncing grounder, aaaand the throw to first will be—NOT IN TIME! ELLSBURY BEATS IT! BOY CAN HE RUN!” Even the cameraman was caught off guard, because all us fans saw of that play was the last of Ellsbury’s foot vanishing from our screens. Later, in a moment that’s already entered into Fenway Lore, Ellsbury scored from second on a wild pitch:

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/-8fSP2ajDnI" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

That’s hot.

Bunting, however, also presents a potential moral conundrum in baseball. Recently, playing the Orioles, there was a slight scuffle between the O’s and the BoSox after Crisp bunted for a base hit against rookie Oriole pitcher Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera gave him a long look as if to say, “You think you can bunt against me, punk?” (Later in the inning, Coco would be awarded the plate after psyching Cabrera into a balk by skipping down the third baseline–a frustrated Cabrera childishly threw the next pitch over Dustin Pedroia’s head, incited a brawl, and was then ejected from the game.) That was an interesting response, considering that it was the Orioles who tried to bunt against Sox rookie Clay Buchholz the previous week—a move often considered gauche in the midst of a no-hitter. (My thoughts on that gem here.)

Whether you think bunting is fair or not, and whether you think a patient, potent team like the Red Sox should be doing it, when you’ve got Crisp, Lugo, and Ellsbury on your roster, it has to be part of your arsenal.

Maybe you can steal first after all.

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BallHype: hype it up!


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