Philadelphia Inquirer’s Don McKee thinks the Phils need to go all in for Jake Peavy.

Forget the talk that he doesn’t want to come here. Overwhelm the Padres with prospects and make a tentative deal.

Then ask Peavy whether he really doesn’t want to pitch for a contender he will make even stronger, in a packed modern ballpark with a party atmosphere every night and player amenities to die for?

Then see what he says.

The Phils could definitely overwhelm the Pads with a large quantity of prospects, but it’s hard to imagine San Diego being bowled over by the quality of the Phils’ top minor leaguers. Carlos Carrasco? He’s got a future as a major league pitcher, for sure, and his 58 strikeouts in 55 innings is impressive. But his 5.40 ERA is not. Jason Donald has a .299 OBP in triple-A this season. Lou Marson is hitting .230 and there are questions about his readiness to handle a pitching staff.

Ask Peavy if he wants to play in a modern ballpark? How about instead we ask him if he’d like to move from the most pitcher-friendly park in the major leagues to a bandbox where his numbers woud surely take a hit, as would his value the next time free agency rolls around?

How about we ask him if he wants to move as far away from his San Diego home as possible? If he’ like to leave the most forgiving fans in America for the most demanding fans?

Sure, it’s possible Peavy will OK a trade to Philly. But I wouldn’t hold my breath. And I certainly wouldn’t call it a “perfect fit,” as McKee does.

Before the offseason started, the Braves’ stated goal was to sign two top of the rotation starters. They had $47 million to spend.

Here’s what team president Terry McGuirk said in August about the team’s offseason plans:

“We know with the kind of money we have coming off the books, we can talk to anybody we want in the marketplace,” McGuirk continued. “There’s certainly a healthy bit of skepticism about the efficiency and the effectiveness of the free-agent marketplace. But we have the ability to go out and get a real horse who can help take us to the top.”

So far Atlanta has landed Javier Vasquez, who is a horse, but probably not the horse McGuirk was talking about. He’s certainly “no ace,” as the AJC’s David O’Brien is quick to point out.

The Braves first targeted Jake Peavy, but quickly grew tired of the Padres’ demands. Then they threw piles of money at A.J. Burnett, who decided he’d look better in pinstripes.

So who’s left?

There’s Ben Sheets, who would be a good signing if the Braves’ priority is finding somebody to keep Chipper Jones company in the trainer’s room.

There’s Derek Lowe, who the Braves previously ruled out but who is clearly the best option left on the free agent market. Unfortunately, Lowe says his priority is to pitch for a winner and I’m not sure the fourth place Braves meet that standard, no matter how much they want to.

And there are guys like Randy Wolf, Randy Johnson and Jon Garland, who are clearly useful pitchers but who should not be confused with top of the rotation starters.

The Braves could always revisit the Peavy talks, but that seems unlikely. The Padres were asking for Yunel Escobar, but the Braves are no longer willing to trade their shortstop now that they’ve sent Brent Lillibridge to the White Sox as part of the package that landed Vazquez.

No, it looks like the Braves are destined to fall short of their stated goal of landing two top of the rotation starters. Way short.

What have we learned from all this? If you’re a medium market team like the Braves and you’re going to try and spend your way from fourth place to first place, you better make sure you’re not competing with the Yankees for players. Because you’re never going to outspend the Yankees, and at the end of the day it almost always comes down to money.

One final point: In August, McGuirk called this offseason “the first time we’ve really had the chance to have a rebuilding effort.” Who is he kidding? Rebuilding is when you knock everything down and start from scratch. Rebuilding is typically marked by an emphasis on young players. What the Braves are attempting is a patch job. And that’s fine, except that free agent patches are mighty expensive and Atlanta’s lineup has a lot of holes.

The San Diego Padres lost a grand total of 99 games last year. They were third to last in RBI, second to last in team batting average, and dead last in runs scored. Their pitching was arguably better, but only marginally; they were 10th in ERA and in batting average against, and they allowed the sixth most runs in the National League. All of which was a drastic departure from 2007, when the Padres pitching staff was the best in the league.

After such a disappointing season, you’d think the Padres front office would have a semblance of a plan to right the ship for next year, right? Well…

Take one of their lone shining moments, another strong year from 2007 Cy Young winner, Jake Peavy. His ERA (2.85) was good for third best, and his 10-11 record would’ve easily been way north of .500 had his team provided more run support (they scored 3.63 runs per outing). Surely they can count on him having another strong year in 2009, right? Well…

Peavy’s pretty much done with the team, as the cost-cutting Padres can no longer afford his $11 million salary. They’ve got a scheduled budget of around $50 million for 2009, and they’ve been actively shopping him. In fact, GM Kevin Towers wanted a deal in place before the free agent period began back in mid November. So fine – trade him– that ought to bring in some talented prospects to build around. Well…

Peavy’s still with the team, as the possible trade partners (Cubs, Braves, among others) have not offered the right deal/pieces for Towers to pull the trigger. Which in turn is hampering the team’s ability to make any other moves.

Much of what the Padres need will be addressed by the impending Peavy trade, whether the returns are in the form of a young starting pitcher, or more relief pitching, or perhaps, a young shortstop. And consequently, any further moves will be directly contingent on what they get in said Peavy deal; as in, what to do with Khalil Green and what kind of a deal the Padres could make if, for instance, Towers is able to coax Yunel Escobar from the Braves. But without moving Peavy there is no other first move, because, as of now, that’s what the Padres need to do.

But let’s not concentrate on the what-ifs, let’s get some facts out of the way. The Padres declined to offer Trevor Hoffman arbitration, signaling the end of his storied tenure with the team, and Mark Prior filed for free agency (but he may re-sign). So they need to solidify their rotation and their bullpen (remember, their pitching was the best in the NL in 2007, and way below average in 2008).

They also need to drastically improve their offense. Picking up Brian Giles’ option (lead the team in BA) is a good start, but they could use a run-producing outfielder (Giles collected almost as many RBIs as their other two projected starting outfielders, Scott Hairston and Chase Headly, combined). With Tadahito Iguchi gone, the Padres will give Matt Antonelli a shot at second base, but an upgrade there wouldn’t hurt.

Which brings me back to the budget. Depending on how you look at it, offense is where the Padres need to be focusing their offseason plans, but then again so is pitching, and several free agent, veteran pitchers have indicated their preference for San Diego.  Well…

While the budget hasn’t been set, and mlb.com reports it around $50 million, other figures indicate that it could be close to $40 million, which is a full $30 million less than 2008’s budget. I don’t know about you, but last time I checked, you can’t do much with $40 mil other than hope your prospects are the hottest commodity in the market. The Padres are free of bad contracts, and the low payroll gives off the impression that an opportunity to spend some money is on the horizon.

Well…

The team is currently caught in the middle of owner John Moore’s divorce and at this point it’s not clear what impact, if any, that’ll have on his majority stake, but there’s a very real possibility that his wife, Becky Moores will get the controlling majority.

Oy… You thought 2008 was bad…? It seems 2009 won’t get any better.

– What They Need Index –

Free coffee and baseball: This is a match made in heaven, from Sarah’s point of view. Two notes: 1. Jose Canseco is worried that he’ll get poisoned via free coffee. 2. Jonathan Papelbon is advertising free coffee (with purchase of either a flatbread sandwich or a pizza) at Dunkin’ Donuts, available the day after the Red Sox win. Sounds a bit complicated to me—and it’s cheap of DD to exclude their own employees. Not to mention that Paps looks like a cheeseball in this photo. Why didn’t they just go with a real post-game shot?

Speed: the Blue Jays are going to be swiping more bags this season. And speaking of speed, I enjoyed watching the A’s relievers throw over to first with Jason Varitek standing on the bag. Yes, let’s make sure the 35-year old catcher doesn’t steal.

Fans: It just goes to show you that the Dodgers really do have a special relationship with their fans, as LA hurler Brad Penny warmed up with a lucky fan yesterday. Across town, Angels owner Arte Moreno bought souvenirs for several fans. And it seems that Baltimore’s long-suffering faithful are finally abandoning their ballclub. Just don’t get mad when the Sox come to town in May and bring their hordes of free-spending fans with them, transforming Camden Yards into Fenway South. The O’s need the revenue.

No-hitters: Yesterday, ESPN.com carried a teaser for the Chicago-Detroit game saying the Dontrelle Willis was throwing a no-no through five innings. To me, that’s just false advertising. Sure, it’s technically accurate to say that D-Train ended up one-hitting the White Sox, but it would perhaps be more descriptive to say that Willis went five innings, while walking seven and striking out none. It was the least dominant no-no bid I’ve ever watched. An outing more worthy of ESPN’s hype would have been Jake Peavy’s two-hit complete game or Manny Parra’s legit seven-strikeout no-hit bid, carried through five innings.

Reds Rookies: On the heels of Johnny Cueto’s stunning debut Thursday, another Reds rookie pitcher impresses today. Edinson Volquez has pitched five innings so far, with seven K’s and one earned run. He’s scattered three hits and two walks.

Sleep: The Red Sox really do need it. Their odyssey from Florida to Japan to California to Toronto is starting to tell, and it’s most readily apparent on defense. Boston has already committed two errors halfway through today’s game. They had two errors yesterday, too, and have racked up a number of sloppy near-errors over the past few games. They have a day off tomorrow and open Fenway Park on Tuesday.

This year, the Cy Young debate is hardly a debate at all. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Jake Peavy will take home the hardware for the NL, while C.C. Sabathia will be the AL pitcher clearing off his mantel. I suppose I can agree with that. Thus, this post will be dedicated to acknowledging this year’s also-rans.

In the NL, Peavy’s 19-6 record, 223.1 IP, 240 K’s, and 2.54 ERA are hot indeed. But Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks made the same number of starts (34) and pitched more innings (236.1) leading to a few more decisions (18-10). Of course, his ERA is higher (3.01) and his strikeouts were fewer (194). I feel I also ought to mention Brad Penny of the Dodgers and John Smoltz of the Braves. Neither was good enough to be the NL Cy this year, of course, but they still put up good numbers. In fact, their numbers were eerily similar to one another’s. Except, of course, for Smoltz’s better strikeout rate. And we throw a tiny scrap in the direction of Aaron Harang of Cincinnati, for being the Chien-Ming Wang of the NL. Only, because he doesn’t pitch for the Yankees, his name hasn’t been bandied about at all. I’m sure he feels, if not harangued (ha) then at least a bit forlorn.

In the AL, Cleveland’s Sabathia has been a beast. 241 innings pitched! 34 starts! 209 strikeouts! Only 37 walks! And his 3.21 ERA ain’t too shabby either. Plus, I’m sure Cleveland is very happy with the 19-7 record. And he seems determined to single-handedly revive the lost art of the complete game. Of course, he wasn’t exactly masterful against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, but he was good enough to get by. But our sympathies should really extend to Fausto Carmona. If he hadn’t been so overshadowed by the No. 1 starter on his own team, we might be talking about him for the Cy. His ERA is an even better 3.06, and though he pitched fewer innings (215 in 32 starts) and didn’t strike out nearly as many (137) or walk so few (61), his record is nearly identical at 19-8. Then there’s Josh Beckett of the Red Sox, the only 20-game winner during the regular season. No sign of fatigue, either, as he threw a complete-game shutout against the Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS. His 194 K’s and 40 walks in 200.2 innings (in 30 starts) aren’t anything to sneeze at, and his ERA of 3.27 is perfectly decent. But even the nice, round number of 20 wins isn’t quite enough to dislodge C.C. from his throne. Finally, John Lackey has barely gotten a mention, even though he has the best ERA in the league (3.01) and a comparable record (19-9). His 224 IP in 33 starts are better than the other also-rans, and his 179 K’s and 52 walks are certainly comparable. Yet his candidacy barely got any airtime. No, people wanted to talk about Chien-Ming Wang instead. While Wang’s season was impressive, his numbers definitely put him at the bottom of the pack (see Aaron Harang, above). And we curtly nod in the direction of Scott Kazmir, who was the AL strikeout leader this season, but walked 89 batters and who couldn’t do better than 13-9 because of Tampa Bay’s atrocious bullpen. We also acknowledge Eric Bedard, whose monstrous 10.93 K/9 rate would surely have gotten him better than a 13-5 record were he not toiling away for the Orioles.

Remember, also-rans: there’s always next year.

We’ve all been there. You’re loved one is dropping you off at the airport. You’ve got heavy bags you’re trying to hoist out of a crowded trunk and on to the the curb. You want to say an appropriately affectionate goodbye to your wife/girlfriend or husband/boyfriend, but the airport cop is urging you to “move it along,” threating you with…with…with WHAT exactly if you don’t get your car away from the curb?

Well, Padres pitcher Jake Peavy decided he wasn’t going to take it.

“Write me a ticket,” he told the cops at the Mobile (AL) Regional Airport. They did him one better. They threw him in jail.

From ESPN.com:

Padres general manager Kevin Towers told The Associated Press he was told that Peavy was headed for a goodwill tour of the Dominican Republic with other major league players when he double-parked to drop off his bags and was told by airport police to move his car.

“The airport police told him he couldn’t park his car there and he said, ‘Write me up a ticket and I’ll pay for it,’” Towers said. “He was arrested.”

A few thoughts on the Peavy arrest:

1. Peavy is my new hero. Way to stand up to the man, Jake.

2. It was 5:20 a.m. at the Mobile, Alabama airport. Was there any traffic for Peavy to obstruct? Not likely.

3. What are odds that Peavy sprinkled in a few F-bombs to his assertion that they could “write him a ticket”? I’d say pretty good.

Just goes to show that as the trade deadline approaches, baseball’s rumor mill is churning out more half-truths than a high school bathroom. Eric Wilbur, at Boston.com, picks out one he thinks is especially nutso: Sox 3B Mike Lowell for the Padres’ struggling pitching stud Jake Peavy.

Buster Olney of ESPN.com is reporting that the Padres, after releasing Vinny Castilla earlier this week, are desperate for help at third, and have inquired the Red Sox about Lowell. That much, at least, sounds legit, as is the matter of the pitching-deficient Red Sox asking for some in return. And then, somehow, it all spirals out of control, with the Red Sox getting one of the National League’s best young pitchers in exchange for a third baseman on the other side of 30.

No word yet on where Vinny Castilla will be sitting in the cafeteria, but I hear he’s thinking of just bringing his tray up to the third floor bathroom, where he won’t have to make awkward eye contact with anyone.

In my last entry, I listed five guys who would be on the DL before the All-Star break. Since the article was posted, three players have already been stricken by the injury bug. Gary Sheffield and Kerry Wood have both been placed on the 15-day DL and Barry Bonds has missed five straight games with a sore left side. In this column, I have listed five more players that present intermediate injury risks to your fantasy team. Proceed at your own risk.

J.D. DREW

If you were to start a Fantasy Injury League, Drew would be a top-three pick. J.D. has missed 27 games or more in six of his seven full professional seasons. On average, Drew misses approximately a month per season and consistently breaks fantasy owners’ hearts with lingering hamstring pulls. It’s only a matter of time until Drew blows a gasket again this season and hampers your fantasy team’s stretch run. He’s been posting great numbers this season, so try to work a trade with another owner and get market value from a less-risky outfielder.

JAKE PEAVY

The damage may have already been done to Jake Peavy. By looking at his numbers this season, one could assume that Peavy is pitching hurt and just doesn’t want to admit it. At 4-7 with a 4.96 ERA, Peavy is nowhere near his form from the 2004 and 2005 campaigns in which he posted a combined record of 28-13 with an ERA hovering around 2.50. It’s possible that Peavy is pitching through pain to help his Padres stay in the NL West race – an unselfish but extremely dangerous notion. Be weary of Peavy’s progress and check-up on his health regularly.

Read the rest of this entry »