So Pedro Martinez is taking his spot in the rotation, and Jamie Moyer is not pleased, saying that he is “disheartened,” and feels like he was “misled” by Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr.

Naturally, Amaro had to respond, so he issued the following statement. “When we signed Jamie Moyer in December it was under the pretense of being a starter. But right now circumstances have changed and that’s why we’re moving him to the bullpen.”

Now apparently Amaro does not quite understand the meaning of the word “pretense”, because if he did, he would realize that in his statement he appears to be flat-out admitting that he deliberately misled Moyer.

According to the dictionary, a “pretense” is “a false appearance or action intended to deceive.”

Then again, it might not be Amaro’s fault, as the statement is reported to have been “issued by his office.” Perhaps the entire Phillies front offices is also a bit challenged by basic English vocabulary?

Tonight Pedro Martinez struck out 11 batters in a minor league rehab start. He threw 82 pitches — 60 strikes — and showed that he’s ready for big league action.

The only question is, who will lose his spot in the Phillies’ rotation once Pedro comes on board?

Lots of people have lots of theories about this. My favorite belongs to the Philadelphia Daily News’ David Murphy, who seems to be a little conflicted, and must be getting paid by the inch.

Here’s my take:

There are two candidates to get bumped from the Phils’ rotation.

In one corner we have Jamie Moyer, who is old and seems like a really nice guy. Both this season and last, Moyer has won more games than any Phillies pitcher. But in 2009 his ERA has ballooned to 5.55 — the third highest in the NL among qualified pitchers. What’s more, his FIP and BABIP indicate that he hasn’t been particularly lucky or unlucky this season. He really is this bad.

In the other corner we have J.A. Happ, who has emerged as a (leading?) candidate for rookie of the year. Happ is in the top-10 in the NL in ERA, but his 4.21 FIP suggests he probably won’t stay there long, while his .254 BABIP is probably a little low to sustain.

Happ could return to the bullpen, where he has excelled. Moyer, on the other hand, probably isn’t suited to a bullpen role, as it takes him too long to warmup.

The conclusion? This is an easy decision. Even if Happ’s luck runs out, he’s still a better pitcher than Moyer, and the numbers back it up. Also, as Nick pointed out a month ago, if the Phillies cut Moyer now (or put him on the DL with an imaginary injury) they’ll save $4MM in 2010.

Not that this should matter much, but keeping Happ in the rotation will also afford him experience starting high-leverage games, which will benefit him in future seasons.

Once the playoffs start, the Phils can move either Happ or Martinez to the bullpen, depending on which one has the hotter hand. But for now, Happ has earned the right to stay in the rotation.

Jamie Moyer is a great guy, but there’s no room for a 5.55 ERA on a championship team.

UPDATE:

From David Murphy’s High Cheese blog comes word that Happ is staying in the rotation, and the Phils might use a six-man rotation. “Happ’s not going out of anywhere,” Amaro says. Good grief.

So Dave Allen over at FanGraphs recently picked up on something I’d noticed back in May, which is that Jamie Moyer is throwing a heck of a lot more fastballs than his usual norm.  Which is not a good thing when your fastball maxes out at about 82 mph.

Not surprisingly, Moyer has been extremely ineffective this year, yielding an abominable 1.91 HR/9, which would be second worst in his career behind only his disastrous 2004 campaign, and posting a 5.69 FIP.

What makes this so scary for the Phillies is not merely Moyer’s potential to suck for the remainder of this season, while the Phillies are trying to make the playoffs, but on top of that the fact that Moyer is actually signed to a two-year contract through next season. His 2010 salary has a base of $6.5 million and is set to rise by $250,000 for achieving 23 starts and 150 innings pitched this year, and then by an insane $500,000 each for achieving 160, 170, 180, and 190 innings pitched and 25, 27, 29, and 31 games started.

Given that Moyer is currently on pace for 33 games started and 183 innings pitched, by my calculations if he hits those modest and eminently achievable numbers, his 2010 salary will rise from $6.5 million to a ridiculous $10.25 million.

Given that according to FanGraphs calculations Moyer’s awful performance thus far has been worth negative $800,000, the Phillies need to decide if a year and a half more of Moyer at his current rate of performance is really worth an paying an additional $4 million on top of the sunk cost of his base pay.

Jamie Moyer is getting hammered this year.  His ERA is an unsightly 8.10, his WHIP is a bloated 1.84, and he has allowed at least 4 runs or more in 6 out of 7 starts so far.

What’s odd about this is that for decades now, Moyer has been an almost machine like model of consistency.  Year after year he kept going out there, slinging 82 mph fastballs with pinpoint control.

Moyer’s velocity has been in very very gradual decline, on average losing about 2/10 of an mph per year over the last decade, but the year-on-year decline is almost infinitesimal.  Moyer’s K/9 rate certainly hasn’t declined, and he hasn’t been a victim of bad luck with BABIP.

What really stands out as different this year is Moyer’s pitch selection.  After years of consistently throwing about 40% fastballs, Moyer is mysteriously throwing 61% fastballs in 2009. Not a very good idea when your fastball is sitting at 81 mph.

Moyer used to be famous for his devastating changeup, but for reasons which are not entirely known, his changeup use has declined every year over the past 8 years, from 35% in 2002 to 20% this year. He also almost entirely stopped throwing the big knuckle curve he used to feature in his glory days, which is down from 20% to a mere 4% of pitches.

In recent years Moyer had made up for the decline of these two pitches by adding a cutter, which he first featured on occasion in 2004, and gradually ramped up to his main secondary pitch, at 30% last season.

But this season, his cutter too, has fallen off a cliff, and is dramatically down to only 14% of pitches.  Meanwhile, the percentage of Moyer’s pitches which cannot be identified by the Pitch F/X people, usually in the low single digits, is up to 16%.  These pitches tend to be junk balls – not slow enough to be changeups, not fast enough to be fastballs, and not moving enough to be breaking balls.

The result is a pitcher whose pitch selection profile is drastically different from his career norms.  To my knowledge Moyer has never thrown such a high percentage of fastballs and fastball-like pitches, and with his velocity, there’s no good reason he should be.

My best guess is that Moyer has started losing the ability to control his pitches, forcing him to throw more fastballs in the zone. This would also help explain his elevated walk rate, his highest since 1991, which was eons ago in baseball time. He seems to have lost his feel for the cutter, his faith in his changeup is lessened, and his curveball is all but disappeared.

We are still in the region of small sample size, but we are quickly reaching its frontier, and Moyer’s ungodly consistency all these years makes such big fluctuations all the more odd.  Moyer’s ERA has bounced around from year to year, but his underlying numbers have been almost like unto clockwork.  But Jamie Moyer is 46 already, and his long and storied career may finally be coming to an end.

Monday is Hot Baseball Wives Day here on UmpBump.com, and this week’s enshrinee into the Hallowed Halls, by popular demand of several UmpBump readers, is Karen Moyer, eldest daughter of famed ESPN college basketball analyst Digger Phelps, and wife of ageless Phillies southpaw Jamie Moyer.

In addition to being the devoted mother of the couple’s seven children, Karen Moyer is also co-founder with her husband of the Moyer Foundation, which helps troubled children, sits on numerous boards and committees of organizations devoted to helping children in distress, and is also the founder, owner, and head trainer at “Go Legs” – a cycling-focused fitness center in Seattle.

For being hot in a variety of ways, Karen Moyer is this week’s honoree.

More pictures after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

As I previously noted, I had mixed feelings about the possibility of the Phillies signing Curt Schilling. Fortunately, I won’t have to worry about it any longer. He’s going back to Boston.

And in other news, Indians pitcher Paul Byrd and his HGH rumors are returning to Cleveland for one year and $7.5.

So now, as a Phillies fan, I’m stuck wondering: where will the Phillies find more pitching?

There are, as I see it, three options.

1. They can promote a prospect. The Phils have a couple of promising pitchers in the minors. The first is Josh Outman, who should make the major league roster just because he’s got a great, great name. He also led the A-league last season with a 2.45 ERA, and earned a promotion to AA.

The second is Carlos Carrasco. Here’s how Phuture Phillies describes Carrasco:

Carrasco is a long ways from a finished product, but he does have a pair of major league pitches. He throws a plus fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95 with good life, as well as a quality changeup. His mechanics are nearly picture-perfect, as he looks like he’s throwing an easy side session while popping 92s and 93s.

It’s possible both Carrasco and Outman will see time in the bigs next season, but it’s doubtful either one will start the season in the majors.

2. They can sign a free agent. But who’s available? Andy Pettitte says he’ll only play for the Yankees, so he’s out. Kris Benson is a free agent. The Phils probably won’t sign him, because he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, I think Anna Benson would be a big hit in Philly. I’m secretly rooting for the Bensons to come to town. And by secretly, I mean openly.

If not Benson, there are the following guys to consider, according to MLB Trade Rumors:

Shawn Chacon (30), Matt Clement (32), Bartolo Colon (35), Josh Fogg (31), Jason Jennings (29), Kenshin Kawakami (33), Joe Kennedy (29), Hiroki Kuroda (33), Brian Lawrence (32), Kyle Lohse (29), Rodrigo Lopez (32), Mike Maroth (30), Odalis Perez (31), Kenny Rogers (43) – Type B, Kazumi Saito (30), Carlos Silva (29), Jeff Weaver (31), David Wells (45), Kip Wells (31), Randy Wolf (31), Jamey Wright (34), Jaret Wright (32).

Randy Wolf would seem to be a good fit, since he has pitched in Philadelphia his entire career, except for last season, when he briefly chased his dream of pitching in L.A.

I wouldn’t mind seeing the team roll the dice with Matt Clement, who clearly has some upside. Lohse would be welcome back, but he will probably be looking to make more money than the Phils will be willing to pay.

3. They can trade for a pitcher. But who’s available? The names floating around include John Garland, Noah Lowry, Dontrelle Willis and Johan Santana. Let’s assume Santana is a pipe dream. Willis, as Paul pointed out in a previous post, isn’t a good investment. Lowry won 14 games for the Giants in 2007, so he must be doing something right.

(But will somebody please explain to me how Lowry won 14 games, despite the fact that his WHIP was an unsightly 1.55 and he walked as many guys as he stuck out? Moreover, Matt Cain managed to lose 16 games pitching for the same team, and his WHIP was way lower — 1.26 — and he stuck out twice as many guys as he walked!)

Then there’s the rumor that the Giants are shopping rookie phenom Tim Lincecum. Word is San Fran is looking for a big bat. I’ve been killing myself trying to figure out somebody the Phillies could swap for Lincecum, but I just don’t see it happening. I think the Giants would want more in return for Lincecum than Pat Burrell and the one year he has left on his contract. Shane Victorino is a fun player, but hardly a “big bat”. Chase Utley is going nowhere. You hear me, Gillick? NOWHERE.

That leaves Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Howard is a former NL MVP and Rollins is a candidate for MVP this season. Can the Phils trade an MVP for a pitcher who has yet to prove himself at the big league level?

Probably not. Well, they certainly can’t trade Howard. He is one of those once in a lifetime players.

But Rollins is just very good, not great. More than anything, he’s very well rounded. He’s a good fielder. Good base stealer. Good hitter. But not irreplaceable. Moreover, after his big-talkin’ big hittin’ 2007 season, Rollins will never be more valuable.

Plus, Lincecum is still making rookie money, so acquiring him for a high priced player like Rollins would free up money to sign a guy like Aaron Rowand. Or another pitcher, like Wolf, Clement or Lohse. OR — dare to dream — Mike Lowell.

And the idea of pairing Lincecum and Cole Hamels is tantilyzing. All of a sudden, next year’s starting rotation look like this:

Cole Hamels

Tim Lincecum

Kyle Kendrick

Jamie Moyer

Adam Eaton

Ok, so ending that list with Adam Eaton leaves a sour taste. But, like I said, there’s no reason the Phils couldn’t sign a guy like Wolf to replace Eaton, bumping the disappointing starter to the bullpen.

Of course, the Phils would be giving up on Rollins (who is my favorite player in the universe). And they’d have to find a new shortstop, either via trade or free agency. And it’s a thin free agent crop. Let’s say they go with David Eckstein, who is supremely overrated, but would be a hit in Philly. That would leave them with a lineup that looks like this:

1. Shane Victorino CF

2. Chase Utley 2B

3. Ryan Howard 1B

4. Pat Burrell LF

5. Jason Werth RF

6. Mike Lowell 3B

7. Carlos Ruiz C

8. David Eckstein SS

Not bad, right?

Now if the Phils can just figure out how to fix the bullpen.

I don’t have a whole lot of time to flesh this out this morning, but I wanted to throw a thought out there. Prior to yesterday’s game, all anybody was talking about was how badly the Mets had choked down the stretch.

It was being called the second greatest collapse of all time (behind the ‘64 Phillies, of course).

People wondered if firing Randolph would be enough. Or would more players and coaches have to go?

But that was before the Mets absolutely demolished the Marlins, 13-0. And the before the Phillies lost to the Nationals.

Now I have to ask, if the Phillies lose today and fall just short of the playoffs AGAIN, will that qualify this season as the biggest tease ever? Will it qualify the Phillies franchise as the most excruciating team to route for?

They came in second place last year. And the year before. And the year before that. In fact, just like this year, the season came down to the last game in 2005. The Phillies won that game, but still missed the playoffs.

Still, you’ve got to love that the guys who are pitching today for the NL East leaders are guys who can appreciate the significance of the moment, Tom Glavine for the Mets and Jamie Moyer for the Phils.

Here’s what the Philadelphia Inquirer has to say about Moyer:

Jamie Moyer knows what a championship parade in Philadelphia looks, feels and sounds like.

He was a senior at Souderton High School in Montgomery County when the Phillies won the World Series in 1980. He got so caught up in the euphoria of his favorite team’s winning it all that he played hooky and headed down to the big city to be part of the victory celebration.

(What’s the statute of limitations on truancy, anyway?)

All these years later, Moyer is still one of you. He’s a Philadelphia sports fan. And today, on fan appreciation day, he holds your sporting dreams – and his – in his left hand.

Pretty cool, right?

Of course, Phillies fans would prefer to have Jamie Moyer circa 2001 pitching this game, instead of the older version, who kind of reminds us of Eddie Harris from the movie Major League.

But whatever. At least it’s not Adam Eaton.

My friend Paul, who you might remember is both a Mets fan and a dick (it’s a chicken or the egg thing), sent me this email regarding the Phillies-Mets match up a few minutes ago:

I’m not sure if you’ve taken notice, but tonight’s Phils-Mets match up will eature two starting pitchers with a combined age of 85. Not since Satchel Paige faced Richard “The Dapper Dick” Peckinpaugh in the 1953 season have two pitchers this old taken the mound in the same game for opposing sides.

Between Glavine and Moyer, they have over 40 years of big league experience. This is the first time that they have ever faced off.

And please don’t bother looking up “The Dapper Dick” in any baseball book/website.

An interesting bit of trivia, that. In this age of steroids and HGH, players peaking in their late 30s isn’t unusual (See Bonds, Clemens, etc.). But I think it’s safe to say that neither of tonight’s pitchers (especially Jamie Moyer) is juicing. They’re just freaks. And darn good pitchers. Should be a good game.