Averaging 4.84 runs scored per game, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been better than what many had expected going into 2008. In fact, their starting OF has been stellar, averaging an adjusted OPS of 138, which is tops in MLB*. You read that correctly. You could easily make the argument that the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates have the best offensive outfield in Major League Baseball. I’m going to give you a second to let that sink in.

That’s better than Boston (Manny-Ellsbury-Drew = 127), St. Louis (Schumaker-Ankiel-Ludwick = 126), White Sox (Quentin-Swisher-Dye = 129), and even Detroit (Thames-Granderson-Maggs = 136).

Consisting of Jason Bay, Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady, each member of this Pittsburgh outfield trio have OBPs north of .350 and slug at least .510.

Which is why it’s really too bad that the Pirates are still pretty far out in the playoff hunt, 11.5 games behind the Cubs for the division lead. And the long-term outlook for the Bucs would be improved if they broke up their outfield in preparation for 2009 and beyond.

With all three players performing at such a high level, any of them should interest teams looking for an offensive boost for the stretch run. Xavier Nady is the one who will most likely get dealt, which makes sense. He’s a 29-year old in the last year of his contract. Based on his current performance this season, he’s going to get quite the raise from his $3.35MM salary. In addition, with a very strong .284/.387/.531 line and a pretty budget friendly contract ($5.75MM in ‘08, $7.5MM in ‘09), Jason Bay will most likely be among the top names we’ll be hearing about as we approach the trade deadline. There’s been word that Pittsburgh intends on keeping Bay for now, and if this is their sincere intent, then I think they’re making a mistake. Not only will the Pirates still be near the basement in 2009 with or without him, this is the perfect sell-high moment. With one more year left on his contract, teams would be more inclined to make an offer, much like the Rangers were able to do last year with Mark Teixeira.

The only one that the Pirates ought to keep for 2009 is McLouth and they ought to ink him to a long-term contract extension very soon (arbitration eligible at the end of the year), despite the fact that Pittsburgh management seems very wary of committing financially to players over the long haul. Although many small market teams have been quick to lock up their young talent in recent months, the Pirates have been late to that party. In fact, the only player on the roster with a guaranteed Major League contract two seasons from now (in 2010) is Ian Snell. To be fair, they haven’t exactly had the kind of young talent that’s really worth locking up, but I think McLouth’s bat is worth the risk.

And if Bay and/or Nady can be dealt, the Bucs have a pretty good prospect waiting in the wings named Andrew McCutchen. Currently playing for AAA-Indianapolis, McCutchen is a five-tool centerfielder whose skills at the position should allow the team to move McLouth over to left (Nate currently sports a pretty ugly .866 RZR in center). But since he’s only 21 years old, I’d understand it if the Pirates waited just a bit longer to call him up.

Now if they could only figure out this “pitching” thing, they’d be going somewhere…

*One caveat so that Rangers fans won’t jump me - on those days when Texas goes with the trio of Milton Bradley-Josh Hamilton-David Murphy, they’re better (OPS-Plus of 142). But Bradley’s mostly a DH these days (48 games at DH, 17 in OF).

- What They Need Index -

For some reason I have been watching the Florida Marlins take on the Pittsburg Pirates tonight down in South Florida. But actually, it’s actually been a really good show - a well-pitched, tight ballgame with some good plays and some well-executed small ball. Right now, it’s 3-3 in the 9th. Here are some random thoughts that have occured to me in the meantime…

Best rookie pitcher that nobody has ever heard of: Josh Johnson of the Marlins. While everyone is lavishing attention on guys like Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, and Jered Weaver, Johnson started tonight, allowing 2 runs on only 4 hits in 7 innings of work to lower his ERA to a second-best-in-the-Major-Leagues 2.49.

On the Pirates side, how good is Jason Bay? The Pirates default All-Star centerfielder clocked another home run tonight to raise his total to 22 on the year. Even more impressive is his walk rate, which has put him on pace for 106 walks this season. A power hitter who can control the strike zone like that is surely in for some very big seasons down the road. Not to mention, Bay has the third best OPS of all National League outfielders, behind only Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday. Who knew?

Man this young Marlins team looks good. The batting lineup is starting to look positively intimidating, as weird as that sounds. In addition to Miguel Cabrerra, starters Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham, Miguel Olivo, and Jeremy Hermida all have OPS’s around .800 or better. The only regular of the Marlin’s young guns that has really fallen on his face at all is Reggie Abercrombie (.622 OPS).

Which gets me thinking - maybe the Marlins have got it right. In the last decade plus of baseball, encompassing the modern era of skyrocketing salaries, ballpark extortionomics, expansion, and division series play, only the Yankees have won more World Series than the Florida Marlins’ two titles, and the Yankees have spent bajillions more than the Fish. Despite all the criticism raining down from all sides on the so-called “fire sales” after the 1997 and 2003 World Series victories, the fact is, the 2003 World Series championship was a direct consequence of the 1998 fire sale. No fire sale, no World Series in 2003. And now, thanks to the most recent fire sale this past offseason, the Marlins have an entire major league roster of outstanding young rookies that are locked up for another six or seven years. And with no reason for the Marlins to trade Dontrelle Willis or Miguel Cabrerra, who are still super-cheap, it is not inconceivable that the Marlins could win a couple of World Series with this squad in the very near future.

So maybe the Marlins are actually the smart ones after all, selling high and buying low every few years to gorge on the rest of the teams’ best young talents and reload for another World Series run, all the while paying one of the lowest payrolls around. But then again, looking at the nearly complete emptiness at Dolphins Stadium tonight, it reminds one of the obvious point that as effective as these fire sales are at reloading for a Series run down the road, they devastate the fanbase and drive people away from the ballpark.
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Jason Bay had himself a week: 7 homers, 15 rbi, 34 total bases, a .500 avg. and, just for kicks, one stolen base.

I’m in a head to head fantasy league. This week, my opponent was Alejandro, who has Bay on his team.

Let’s just say, I lost just about all the offensive categories (except steals), and it was all because of Bay. What a stud.

Stop any debates about about who will be the Pirates’ all-star representative this year. It’s Bay. Period. After last week, there is no doubt.

Fortunately, I still won my fantasy matchup on the strength of my team’s pitching (Pedro and Halladay and Webb, oh my!). Team Umpbump cannot be stopped.