On May 31, ESPN’s Jayson Stark said the Yankees were dead. Today, he’s recanting.

I sent Stark an email on August 8, which said:

Jayson, you don’t know me, but I’ve been a big fan of your writing, dating back to your days as an Inquirer columnist. I run a baseball blog, Umpbump.com , and today I’m writing a post about the Yankees’ chances of winning the AL East. Back on May 31st, you wrote this about the Yanks:

“One thing we know, however, is this: They’re not catching the Red Sox. No team in history ever has been 14½ games out before June and come back to finish first. And only the Miracle Braves were that far back at any point and wound up playing in October.”

Just curious: are you still so sure that the Yankees won’t catch the Sox? They’re only five games back, you know.

Yesterday, Stark responded to my email. It seems he’s softened his stance on the Yankees’ chances:

Hi Coley,
I don’t check this email address much. But the answer to your question is:
Heck no, I’m not sure. You’d think I’d learn my lesson about making statements like that, huh?

So there you have it. Jayson Stark is not so sure the Yankees won’t win the AL East. Welcome to the club, Jayson.

The Stark reversal comes just days after ESPN’s Jeff Pearlman retracted his early season pronouncement that the Yankees should fire Joe Torre.

What’s with these columnists who make bold predictions? Don’t they know that when it comes to the Yankees and the Red Sox, nothing is certain?

I may not be a professional baseball writer, or a Hall of Fame voter, or a regular on Baseball Tonight, but I know enough to never say never when it comes to the Yanks-Sox.

Now the Phillies, that’s a whole ‘nother story. I think I can say with 1oo percent certainty that 2007 is the year of the Phil. Yes, yes, I know I said the same thing last year. And the year before. But come on! We’re hot! And how can a team with a bullpen anchored by Jose Mesa and Antonio Alphonseca not make the playoffs?

Yesterday, Andruw Jones hit a game-winning home run. But that was a blip on the radar. Otherwise, this season Jones has been terrible. His swing is a mess. In a game against the Red Sox recently he struck out five times.

In his Saturday column, AJC sports writer Mark Bradley suggests Andruw’s prolonged slump might hurt his chances at a big contract.

Of course, as Bradley suggests, the more affordable Jones gets, the better the chances that the Braves will keep him.

If they still want him.

Braves hitting coach Terry Pendelton says it’s possible Andruw is worrying about his contract status.

Andruw says that’s not true. But contract or no, there’s one more thing for Andruw to worry about. ESPN stat-head Jason Stark has a new book coming out, The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History, and in it he calls Jones “the most overrated center fielder of all time.”

Ouch.

A few days ago, ESPN.com ran an excerpt from Stark’s book, the part where he describes Jones as the most overrated center fielder of all-time. Jones quotes scouts. But the best quote comes from an anonymous player:

“It’s all perception,” said one player who has played against Jones for years. “Perception is like muscle memory. People have a memory of you doing something. So you have to do something dramatically different to undo that memory.”

But, this being a Jayson Stark book, it all comes down to stats. Stark uses some complicated ones, relying heavily on zone rating. I won’t go into here. But check it out. And then make sure you read the counterpoint from JC Bradbury over at Sabernomics. That guy is a nerd, in the best sense of the word.

I was always under the impression that Jones was the most UNDERRATED center fielder of all time. That’s what my Braves-fan friends were always telling me, anyway.

Until a couple of years ago I always thought that Andruw was a good defensive outfielder who brought little offense. Then he started putting up steroid numbers and my perception of him changed. He went from “good but incomplete” to “wow” status overnight.

Now, two months into the season, Jones isn’t hitting his weight. And speaking of his weight…well, he’s fat. And he doesn’t play center field the way he used to.

Jones has put up some respectable numbers over his 12 year career: 350 HR, 1056 RBI, .265 AVG., .344 OBP. Most impressive of all, of course, is his nine consecutive gold glove awards, a streak that he hopes to continue this season.

If you listen to the Braves announcers talk, Jones is a Hall of Fame candidate. I’m not so sure. What do you think?

PS. Stark solicits book jacket quotes from Mike Greenberg and Peter Gammons, but the best quote comes from former Pirates CF Andy Van Slyke, who says, “if this book doesn’t end up in Oprah’s Book Club, then Oprah’s list is overrated.”

Classic.