This is one of  a series of posts in which we rip each team for their offseason blunders and laud them when necessary for the occasional savvy move.

Since 2002, as I have alluded to previously in this space, the Washington Nationals have let more major league talent slip throught their fingers than probably any other three teams combined.  And unfortunately this horrendous record of mismanagement shows no signs of abating.

Nothing symbolizes the Nats’ utter directionlessness and total lack of a game plan than their foolish and futile pursuit of free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira earlier this winter.  As good a player as Teixeira is, the Nationals are probably the team in major league baseball that would stand to *least* benefit from his acquisition.

Adam Dunn, no doubt explaining to his son why playing baseball sucks.

Given that they already have two other first baseman signed to big contracts, are nowhere near contention, and need to rebuild at almost every other position on the diamond.  But the Learners and Stan Kasten were all pressing for the signing of a big-name free agent, and happy-go-lucky cowboy/GM Jim Bowden was happy to try to oblige.

Ironically, then, the failure to sign Teixeira may well have been the single best thing that happened to the the Nationals in what was otherwise a disastrous offseason. In addition to missing out on Tex, the team found out one of their top prospects was actually 23 rather than 19 (and therefore that they had essentially flushed $1.4 million down the drain), saw their GM embroiled in a Federal Investigation, had to close down their camp in the Dominican and fire Jose Rijo, and now is reportedly plotting the firing of Bowden right in the middle of spring training.

Not to mention that none of the moves the Nats made this offseason are any good.  The trade of three prospects for this years Florida Marlins arbitration victims Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham looks okay on the surface. Well, except that Olsen got lucky last year thanks to an unsustainably low BABIP, and now we find out that his fastball velocity mysteriously dropped over the course of the last two seasons, from 91 mph to 87 mph.  And that Josh Willingham has not been able to stay healthy, has never built on the promise he showed in his 2006 rookie year, and is already 30 years old, making it increasingly likely that 2006 was his peak rather than a hint of his upside.

Moreover, while I personally have never been sold on Emilio Bonifacio – the young infielder who was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Marlins – at least lots of people around the game think he can be a good player, and it is baffling to trade him now because he is a second baseman which is currently a gaping hole in the Nats lineup, whereas the Nats had no need for yet another outfielder in Willingham, or another 5th starter-type in Olsen.  But most of all it just makes no sense at all for the Nationals to take on overpriced, mediocre players during their highly expensive arbitration years when they are nowhere near contention.

The other big move the Nationals made was the acquisition of free agent 1B/OF Adam Dunn.  While I personally think Dunn is a great player, this move possibly makes even less sense for the Nationals than signing Teixeira would have, in that at least giving an eight year deal to Tex might have held the possibility that he would someday play on a contender, whereas giving Dunn $20 million over two years where the Nats have no hope of contending is just flushing money down the drain.  It doesn’t even make sense from the perspective of getting more fans to come out to the park, given that 50 percent of people passionately believe that Dunn is a lazy bum who strikes out too much and hates baseball.

What we are left with is an incredibly unbalanced team that seems to have been assembled with the help of a random number generator. The Nats are paying $25 million this year to three different first baseman and have 6 starting outfielders in Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris. But meanwhile they have no second baseman, I challenge you to name their shortstop without looking, their bullpen is in tatters, and with the losses of Odalis Perez and Tim Redding the composition of their pitching rotation behind Olsen and lone bright spot John Lannan is largely a mystery.

The good news is that the slight improvements the Nationals made at the hefty pricetag of about $25 million in added payroll are likely to ensure that they will improve on their MLB-worst 59-102 record last season.  But that is where the good news ends, as it will be a struggle to win 70 games.

Overall the Nationals’ payroll is projected to be about $75 million this year. Is any team doing less with more?

Offseason Grade: D-

Acquisitions: 1B Adam Dunn, LHP Scott Olsen, OF Josh Willingham, P Daniel Cabrera, C Javier Valentin, IF Alex Cintron, OF Corey Patterson, P Wil Ledezma, P Josh Towers, P Terrell Young

Losses: P Chad Cordero, P Odalis Perez, IF Emilio Bonifacio, P Tim Redding, IF Aaron Boone, P Jesus Colome

Projected Starters, Rotation, and Closer:

C Jesus Flores
1B Adam Dunn – hit exactly 40 homers in each of the last 4 seasons
2B ???
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Christian Guzman – an out-making machine, his ‘08 “comeback” was all batting avg.
LF Josh Willingham/Wily Mo Pena
CF Lastings Milledge/Willie Harris
RF Elijah Dukes/Austin Kearns

SP1 John Lannan
SP2 Scott Olsen
SP3 Daniel Cabrera – The modern master of the art of base-on-balls
SP4 Shawn Hill?
SP5 ???

CL Joel Hanrahan

- Hot Offseason Index -

After Nationals GM Jim Bowden was arrested for drinking and driving in April 2006, we took a look at some of Bowden’s more memorable blunders. Some, like signing Ken Griffey, Jr., were a product of bad luck. Others, like comparing Players Association head Donald Fehr to Sept. 11 hijackers, were just stupid.

Last week we found out that top Nationals prospect Esmailyn Gonzalez, who was listed as 19 years old on the team’s roster, is actually 23-year-old Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo. Today we find out that Bowden is being investigated by the FBI. Turns out he may have been skimming bonuses awarded to Latin players.

Meanwhile, the team that Bowden runs has finished no higher than fourth place every season since 2005, when the Expos moved to Washington, D.C. They’re expected to finish last again this year, and they’ve got a farm system that is so barren that it’s unlikely the team will compete anytime soon.

Common sense says Bowden will be fired before the season starts. But common sense would have dictated firing Bowden a long, long time ago.

This week, Nick wondered aloud what the Washington Nationals would look like, if only they had spent some money to retain former prospects like Brandon Phillips, Jason Bay or Javier Vasquez, instead of trading them for more affordable pieces.

But it was Melissa, a frequent Umpbump commenter, who caught my attention with this seemingly innocent line:

Now that (The Nationals) have a new stadium and are operating in a bigger market they should have the resources to keep their own talent….

That comment reminded me that, last we checked, the Nationals weren’t selling many tickets to games at the new stadium.  But, now that the weather has warmed up, they must be drawing better, right?

In a word, no.

So far this year, the Nats are averaging 30,347 fans per game, in a park that holds 41,888. This season, they’ve sold 18,000 season tickets, an increase of 3,000 since the team moved from Montreal to D.C. But the Nationals had a season-ticket base of about 22,500 in their first season at RFK in 2005, meaning the club has lost the equivalent of 4,500 season ticket holders since then.

What lessons can we learn from this? First of all, that new stadiums aren’t the draw that they used to be. When Oriole Park at Camden Yards opened in 1992, spectators packed the park. Orioles’ attendance, routinely below 25,000 at Memorial Stadium, soared above 40,000 at the new park and remained there for nine seasons. Cleveland’s Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) opened in 1994 and had a run of 455 consecutive sellouts. But the thrill of new, retro ballparks is gone. The Nationals are learning the hard way that it now takes more than just a new stadium to attract fans. It takes … drumroll please … a competitive team. Or Barry Bonds.

What does this mean for the Nationals? I think it casts real doubt on the assertion that Washington’s new stadium will lead to increased resources. Moreover, since the Orioles control the TV broadcasting rights to all of theNationals’ games, Washington seems like a longshot to achieve big-market status anytime soon – if ever.

I’m not an economist, but I think the Nats’ situation can be boiled down to this catch-22: The fans won’t show up unless the team improves, and the team can’t afford better players unless the fans show up.

So if Washington is going to win, they’re going to have to do it the hard way – the small market way. I think it’s time for Stan Kasten to buy himself a copy of Moneyball.

WaPo columnist Thomas Boswell has a story in today’s paper about how the Nationals have decided there is no room in their organization for former manager Frank Robinson.

The common wisdom when the Nationals declined to renew Robinson’s contract was that they would offer him a front office consulting job. Something, anything, to keep him in the organization that he had been so loyal to. After all, it was Robinson who consented to manage the lame duck Expos, even when the team had no fans, no future and no hope.

But instead, the Nationals seem to have decided to move as far away from Robinson as possible, as quickly as possible.

And Robinson is pissed:

“I’m done with them,” Robinson told The Post on Wednesday. “I have nothing against the organization per se. It’s two people that I’m concerned with: Jim and Stan.”

Jim and Stan are, of course, Nationals GM Jim “I only had one beer” Bowden and Stan Kasten, the team’s new president. Kasten says he debated whether or not to offer Robinson a role with the team.

 ”I was really torn,” Kasten said yesterday. “That’s why the decision took so long.”

The decision was to offer Robinson nothing. Nothing, but a plane ticket to spring training so that he could serve as a special assistant to the guy who is replacing him. Ouch.

But Boswell says he knows Robinson and that the baseball legend isn’t always easy to work with.

Last spring, I listened as Robinson went into a 10-minute fuming monologue about how the Nationals had insulted him — by not giving him the right cellphone plan. Others in the front office had a different plan. What did it mean? Was he out of the loop? Was it a hint he wasn’t wanted? Why, it was an injustice. To him, anyway.

“That’s a glimpse. He’s not a guy who endears himself,” a team source said. “He has a long history of a short shelf life.”

Maybe the Nationals decided that rebuilding the franchise would be easier without Robinson around. And maybe they’re right. But he still deserved better. He’s Frank Robinson, after all.

Incoming Washington Nationals team president Stan Kasten says he has talked to Jim Bowden several times about Bowden’s future with the team. But Kasten won’t say whether or not he plans to retain the GM:

I said I haven’t announced a decision. Whether I’ve made a decision or not, nobody really needs to know.

Translation: J-Bo’s a gonner. Anytime you hear the old, “we’ve made a decision but we’re not saying” line, that means the employee in question is on the way out. If the Nationals were even thinking about keeping Bowden, Kasten would say, “Bowden is a good GM and he is our guy.” Publicly supporting Bowden wouldn’t cost the Nationals anything. They could still fire him at the end of the season if they wanted and nobody would bat an eyelash. But keeping quiet just confirms what we all suspect: Bowden’s a lame duck.

Will this affect Bowden’s ability to make deals as the season progresses? Is Soriano more or less likely to be dealt? Stay tuned.

Say it ain’t so, J-Bo.

Nationals GM Jimmy Bowden was pulled over this weekend and charged with drinking and driving.

Talk about a guy bent on sabotaging his own career. How would you rank the following list of Bowden Blunders?

1. Worked as baseball analyst for Cold Pizza

2. Compared Players Association head Donald Fehr to Sept. 11 hijackers.

3. Traded for Alphonso Soriano

4. Signed Ken Griffey, Jr.

5. Died hair a ridiculous shade of blond after being dismissed as Reds GM in 2003.