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Thank Goodness it’s Friday Reading

Earlier this week, Sarah pointed out that Babes Love Baseball is previewing each MLB team — in haiku form. Not to be outdone, Jos Posnanski is writing limericks about each team’s chances.

Remember that ESPN Page 2 story about how ballplayers don’t care about politics? Well, Jimmy Rollins is into politics. Maybe he and C.J. Wilson could be buds?

While Rollins is reading up on the candidates, Brett Myers must be spending a lot of time at the lanes. The 700 Level reports that Myers bowled a near-perfect game the other night at a team bowling event — a 279.

Flotsam media uses a golfer’s attack on a bird as an excuse to post video of a Randy Johnson fastball exploding a dove. I will never get tired of that video.

Jim Baker at BP Unfiltered speaks for all of us when he expresses his hatred for making mistakes in his column. We’ve all been there, and we hear ya, Jim.

Here’s a fascinating story, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal, via USS Mariner. The St. Louis Cardinals are inviting fans to submit scouting reports on promising college ballplayers.

When the submissions are in, the team plans to send its own scouts to evaluate a handful of the most interesting prospects and, in June, to possibly select one or more of them in baseball’s amateur draft. The winning fan — the one whose entry is judged most compelling, whether a player is drafted or not — gets a trip to St. Louis to see a pair of ball games.

Pretty cool, right?


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New Jersey

JimmyThe Phils unveiled their new alternate uniform today, which will be worn during home day games.

The unis were modeled by Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels and HOF member Robin Roberts.

A couple of thoughts on these photos:

  1. Jimmy Rollins knows how to work a runway. This should come as no surprise. Say what you will about Rollins’ work on the field, but he’s certainly among the most likeable players Philly has ever had.
  2. Cole Hamels looks silly wearing sneakers with his baseball jersey.
  3. The new uniforms are cool. I like them a lot. And since they are old school, I’m guessing Bill Conlin approves.

You can see more pics of the Phils’ new uniforms here and here.


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Jimmy Rollins MVP round up

Jimmy RollinsJimmy Rollins is your 2007 NL MVP. We’ve already told you who we think should have won. Here’s what all the other blogs are saying about J-Ro.

“Four of the voters didn’t have Wright on their ballot. Four people, whose job it is to write about baseball, did not think that David Wright was one of the ten most valuable players in the National League.”

  • Joe Sheehan blogged on both Baseball Prospectus and SI that the MVP Award has morphed into the Most Valuable Copy Award. He thinks David Wright should have won.
  • The ESPN writers mostly picked Rollins.
  • Mets Blog thinks the baseball writers were correct and that the Mets’ collapse should cost Wright. I didn’t expect that.


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Schilling, Byrd are off the market. So what now for Phils?

Paul ByrdAs I previously noted, I had mixed feelings about the possibility of the Phillies signing Curt Schilling. Fortunately, I won’t have to worry about it any longer. He’s going back to Boston.

And in other news, Indians pitcher Paul Byrd and his HGH rumors are returning to Cleveland for one year and $7.5.

So now, as a Phillies fan, I’m stuck wondering: where will the Phillies find more pitching?

There are, as I see it, three options.

1. They can promote a prospect. The Phils have a couple of promising pitchers in the minors. The first is Josh Outman, who should make the major league roster just because he’s got a great, great name. He also led the A-league last season with a 2.45 ERA, and earned a promotion to AA.

The second is Carlos Carrasco. Here’s how Phuture Phillies describes Carrasco:

Carrasco is a long ways from a finished product, but he does have a pair of major league pitches. He throws a plus fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95 with good life, as well as a quality changeup. His mechanics are nearly picture-perfect, as he looks like he’s throwing an easy side session while popping 92s and 93s.

It’s possible both Carrasco and Outman will see time in the bigs next season, but it’s doubtful either one will start the season in the majors.

Kris and Anna Benson2. They can sign a free agent. But who’s available? Andy Pettitte says he’ll only play for the Yankees, so he’s out. Kris Benson is a free agent. The Phils probably won’t sign him, because he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, I think Anna Benson would be a big hit in Philly. I’m secretly rooting for the Bensons to come to town. And by secretly, I mean openly.

If not Benson, there are the following guys to consider, according to MLB Trade Rumors:

Shawn Chacon (30), Matt Clement (32), Bartolo Colon (35), Josh Fogg (31), Jason Jennings (29), Kenshin Kawakami (33), Joe Kennedy (29), Hiroki Kuroda (33), Brian Lawrence (32), Kyle Lohse (29), Rodrigo Lopez (32), Mike Maroth (30), Odalis Perez (31), Kenny Rogers (43) - Type B, Kazumi Saito (30), Carlos Silva (29), Jeff Weaver (31), David Wells (45), Kip Wells (31), Randy Wolf (31), Jamey Wright (34), Jaret Wright (32).

Randy Wolf would seem to be a good fit, since he has pitched in Philadelphia his entire career, except for last season, when he briefly chased his dream of pitching in L.A.

I wouldn’t mind seeing the team roll the dice with Matt Clement, who clearly has some upside. Lohse would be welcome back, but he will probably be looking to make more money than the Phils will be willing to pay.

3. They can trade for a pitcher. But who’s available? The names floating around include John Garland, Noah Lowry, Dontrelle Willis and Johan Santana. Let’s assume Santana is a pipe dream. Willis, as Paul pointed out in a previous post, isn’t a good investment. Lowry won 14 games for the Giants in 2007, so he must be doing something right.

(But will somebody please explain to me how Lowry won 14 games, despite the fact that his WHIP was an unsightly 1.55 and he walked as many guys as he stuck out? Moreover, Matt Cain managed to lose 16 games pitching for the same team, and his WHIP was way lower — 1.26 — and he stuck out twice as many guys as he walked!)

Tim LincecumThen there’s the rumor that the Giants are shopping rookie phenom Tim Lincecum. Word is San Fran is looking for a big bat. I’ve been killing myself trying to figure out somebody the Phillies could swap for Lincecum, but I just don’t see it happening. I think the Giants would want more in return for Lincecum than Pat Burrell and the one year he has left on his contract. Shane Victorino is a fun player, but hardly a “big bat”. Chase Utley is going nowhere. You hear me, Gillick? NOWHERE.

That leaves Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Howard is a former NL MVP and Rollins is a candidate for MVP this season. Can the Phils trade an MVP for a pitcher who has yet to prove himself at the big league level?

Probably not. Well, they certainly can’t trade Howard. He is one of those once in a lifetime players.

But Rollins is just very good, not great. More than anything, he’s very well rounded. He’s a good fielder. Good base stealer. Good hitter. But not irreplaceable. Moreover, after his big-talkin’ big hittin’ 2007 season, Rollins will never be more valuable.

Plus, Lincecum is still making rookie money, so acquiring him for a high priced player like Rollins would free up money to sign a guy like Aaron Rowand. Or another pitcher, like Wolf, Clement or Lohse. OR — dare to dream — Mike Lowell.

And the idea of pairing Lincecum and Cole Hamels is tantilyzing. All of a sudden, next year’s starting rotation look like this:

Cole Hamels
Tim Lincecum
Kyle Kendrick
Jamie Moyer
Adam Eaton

Ok, so ending that list with Adam Eaton leaves a sour taste. But, like I said, there’s no reason the Phils couldn’t sign a guy like Wolf to replace Eaton, bumping the disappointing starter to the bullpen.

Of course, the Phils would be giving up on Rollins (who is my favorite player in the universe). And they’d have to find a new shortstop, either via trade or free agency. And it’s a thin free agent crop. Let’s say they go with David Eckstein, who is supremely overrated, but would be a hit in Philly. That would leave them with a lineup that looks like this:

1. Shane Victorino CF
2. Chase Utley 2B
3. Ryan Howard 1B
4. Pat Burrell LF
5. Jason Werth RF
6. Mike Lowell 3B
7. Carlos Ruiz C
8. David Eckstein SS

Not bad, right?

Now if the Phils can just figure out how to fix the bullpen.


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Rollins was right. Kinda, sorta.

Jimmy RollinsPhiladelphia Inquirer columnist Phil Sheridan makes an interesting point today about Jimmy Rollins’ pre-season declaration that the Phils were the “team to beat” in the NL East:

More than enough has been said about Rollins’ declaration that the Phillies would be the “team to beat” in the NL East this year. The one thing that hasn’t been said lately is that he was wrong. Well, right in one sense and wrong in another.

The Phillies did win the division, but it wasn’t because of the addition of Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia. Those pitchers were, in Rollins’ preseason view, the missing pieces that would get this near-miss team over the hump into the postseason.

Rollins couldn’t have foreseen the emergence of Kendrick, the shifting of Myers to the bullpen, the midseason addition of Kyle Lohse, the almost miraculous transformation of Pat Burrell. For not only is a team different from year to year, it evolves and defines itself over the long, unforgiving baseball season.

Isn’t that the truth? I mean, the Phils entered the season with SIX starting pitchers. The fact that the team had one too many starting pitchers was actually considered a major problem.

Of course, that problem took care of itself — and then some. Lieber got hurt. Garcia got hurt. Gordon got hurt, prompting the Phils to move Myers to the bullpen.

And then all of a sudden, the Phils rotation included J.D. Durbin.

Crazy how that happens.


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More on Rollins for MVP

Jimmy RollinsLast week I cast my vote for Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP. And then Paul cast his vote for, well, pretty much anybody not named Jimmy Rollins.

Today, Philadelphia Inquirer beat writers Bob Ford and Phil Sheridan weigh in on whether or not Rollins is a legitimate contender. You can view the video debate here.

NOTE: I haven’t yet heard this video. I don’t have speakers on my work computer. So I can’t vouch for the value of what these two guys have to say. But Ford and Sheridan are usually pretty good and I thought it would be interesting to see share what the Philly media thinks of J-Ro.


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Trivia: All Rollins, all the time.

Keeping with our Jimmy Rollins theme, here’s a stumper.

Rollins entered Sunday’s game against the Mets with 651 at-bats and 710 plate appearances, the most in the Major Leagues. While he’ll likely surpass his career highs of 689 at-bats and 758 appearances — set last season in 158 games — Rollins is also on pace to break the record for most at-bats in a season and most plate appearances in a season.

One More Dying Quail got the first part right — Willie Wilson holds the record for most at bats in a season.

Can you name the player who holds the record for most plate appearances in a season?


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Jimmy Rollins’ Numbers are Inflated

I couldn’t stay quiet. Not after the Phillies swept the Mets AGAIN - this time at Shea. But  Coley’s steadfast endorsement of Jimmy Rollins for MVP absolutely wreaks of homer-ism This is not a reference to the idiocy of Homer Simpson, but rather, the disease that plagues 99.99% (yes, this includes me) of baseball fans - the inability to properly judge the players on the teams for which you root.

I believe that there are 12 hitters in the National League who have had MVP-calibre seasons individually - Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, David Wright, Carlos Lee, Eric Byrnes, Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, and Carlos Beltran. Rollins does certainly come out looking pretty good even among this bunch:

MVP Numbers

In the above chart, “Rk” stands for rank, comparing among the dozen players how each of them fare within those categories. Rollins is Top-5 in four categories - Runs, Strikeouts, Total Bases, and Stolen Bases. But look at Matt Holliday. He’s Top-5 in seven. Or David Wright, who is Top-5 in six. So Rollins doesn’t have the most balanced numbers among them.

What Rollins is heads-and-shoulders above his competition in is the number of times he has crossed home plate. His 127 Runs Scored is best in the NL, leading Hanley Ramirez by 12. But how is it that Rollins has this distinction with the lowest OBP among the dozen players (.346)? I’m sure that his number of extra-base hits and stolen bases has a good deal to do with this. But I’m just as sure that having Ryan Howard and Chase Utley behind you doesn’t hurt either. Moreover, look at the column for “ABs”. Despite playing in only three more games than his nearest competitor, Jose Reyes, Rollins has 38 more at-bats which sounds like a lot to me.

In fact, I checked the list of players who had led the NL in Runs Scored over a full season and found something that would make a good trivia question: When is the last time that a player has led the NL in Runs Scored while having a lower OBP than Jimmy Rollins (.346)? The answer is Glenn Beckert of the Chicago Cubs, who accomplished the feat all the way back in 1968, scoring 98 times despite having an OBP of .326. Suffice to say, the general rule of thumb is that in order to score runs, you need to get on base. It’s very unusual for a player like Rollins to lead the league.

Which got me wondering, in what other categories has Rollins benefited from his number of at-bats? I know this isn’t exactly scientific, but for kicks, I projected the numbers for each of the 12 MVP candidates if they too had equaled Rollins’ 656 At-Bats:

MVP Numbers 2

Rollins doesn’t look very special in this light. He still keeps up with his peers, but he’s now only Top-5 in two categories.  Now I know this chart assumes that each player performs just as they have throughout the season, but I think the point can still be made. While this certainly does not change how much Rollins has contributed on the field - let’s face it, the guy’s been tremendous - but this does help put things into perspective. He’s performed exceptionally well, but he has also received more opportunities to do so than anyone else.

And if you need more proof, Rollins is ninth in Win Shares with 23 (behind David Wright who has 30) and is also ninth in VORP (behind Hanley Ramirez).

Jimmy Rollins has played at an MVP-level for certain. But when you compare him to his peers, he’s just middle-of-the-pack. To be fair, there’s still two weeks of baseball to be played. With the race for NL MVP so tight, I can be convinced otherwise.


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Jimmy Rollins, your 2007 NL MVP

J-RoIt’s a crowded race for NL MVP this season. A lot of deserving candidates. Prince Fielder is leading the league in homers and helping keep the Brewers in contention. David Wright has been a monster down the stretch for the first place Mets. The only knock on Miguel Cabrera is that he plays for the Marlins. And Chipper Jones — I can’t believe I’m saying this — has been a hitting machine.

The Phillies have three guys who should all receive votes. Ryan Howard, last year’s MVP, is second in the league in RBI with 115 and third in HR with 38. Chase Utley is leading the league in doubles and number of times hit by a pitch. He’s second in batting average and if he hadn’t missed a month of the season with a broken hand, he’d be well over 100 RBI. As it is, he has 96.

But I’m ready to call the race today for Phillies short stop Jimmy Rollins, who has quite simply walked the walk this season.

You can measure Rollins’ value in a lot of different ways. Consider this:

A few weeks ago, a lot was made of Curtis Granderson joining the 20-20-20-20 club. Granderson became the third player EVER to hit 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers and steal 20 bases in a season.

Rollins is now one triple away from joining Granderson in the 20-20-20-20 club. Moreover, he’s only one triple and three homers away from joining the 30-30-30-20 club. That, my friends, is what we baseball insiders call “totally badass”.

And there’s this:

At the beginning of the season Rollins said that, based on the Phils’ offseason moves, he thought they were the team to beat. The Mets were offended. The media took the quote and ran with it. Nobody dared let Jimmy forget what he said.

How has Rollins responded? Obviously, he’s had a tremendous season. But he’s saved his best for the big games. Going into today’s game, Rollins had hit .355 against the mets this season, with 7 sb, 6 HR and 14 RBI.

Not bad, right?

But it’s more than just numbers. Rollins has gotten in the Mets’ heads. Yesterday, Rollins won the game with a 2 RBI triple, which was misplayed by Carlos Beltran. Today, the Mets made errors in each of Rollins’ first three at bats. First, he walked, stole second and advanced to third on a LoDuca throwing error. In his next at bat, Jose Reyes booted a grounder. In his third at bat, Moises Alou dropped a fly ball.

It his fourth at bat, the Mets didn’t make an error. But Jimmy did hit an RBI single to right field.

Jimmy Rollins owns the Mets. And he’s been pretty good against the other teams, too.

This season, Rollins talked the talk. And then he walked the walk. And that’s why he should be your NL MVP.


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2008: The Year of the Phils

Freddy GarciaYesterday the Phillies took a six run lead into the eighth inning and blew it. They were the first team to blow a lead that large that late this season.

[APPLAUSE] [APPLAUSE]

But here’s the crazy thing: it wasn’t even the fault of the Phillies’ bullpen. At least, not entirely. The majority of the Braves’ hits were, in the words of the guy on Sports Center, “a collection of bleeders, bloops and choppers.”

In other words, the Phils were unlucky.

Now, I’m not trying to make excuses for the Phillies. They have terrible pitching. Everybody knows it.

But yesterday’s loss was much more disheartening than your typical blown save.

We know the Phillies are going to win despite their pitching, not because of it. And if they make the post season, it will be on the strength of Ryan Howard’s bat, not Adam Eaton’s arm.

We know the Phillies will have to overcome a bullpen that is the worst in baseball.

But yesterday it wasn’t just Jose Mesa’s arm that betrayed the Phils. It was fate. It was destiny. And if you’re Ryan Howard, you’ve got to be thinking to yourself, “How do I overcome that?”

Speaking of the Phils offense…wow. They’re just silly good right now. And that sheds some light on just how bad Philadelphia’s pitching has been.

Among the offensive highlights:

  • The Phillies have three candidates for NL MVP — Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.
  • Utley has a legit chance at the batting title. He’s hitting .341 with a .421 OBP.
  • Howard leads the league in RBI and is second in homers, despite a terrible start to the season and a DL stint.
  • Jimmy Rollins ranks first in the NL in runs (120). He’s raised his AVG nine points in the last 10 games (.296). And he’s got rediculous power for a leadoff hitter (25 HR).
  • After compiling the second lowest AVG in baseball during the first have of the season(.215), Pat Burrell has one of the highest in the second half (.329). Not to mention his .405 OBP.
  • Jayson Werth, who is filling in for the injured Shane Victorino, is hitting .323 with an OBP of .422. He’ll be starting for somebody next season.
  • Aaron Rowand, who everybody thought was a first-half fluke, continues to hit .313 with 23 HR and a .381 OBP. Two words: contract year.

All of this is to say that, no matter how awesome your offense is, it’s hard to overcome bad pitching. And after a game like yesterday’s, I’m starting to think that the Phillies, despite prolific hitting, won’t be able to do it. That’s why I’m stepping up and making the bold prediction that next year, finally, will be the Phillies’ year.

You heard it here first.


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