I’m going to post my own World Series preview later today, where I go position by position. But first I wanted to point out that Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin has his own preview up, where he compares the Phillies lineup to the Yankees lineup. Much of the column is fine, but he starts out with one big, steaming turd:

Leadoff: Jimmy Rollins vs. Derek Jeter

The Yankees’ captain is a first- ballot Hall of Fame lock. Rollins adds to his credentials year-by-year. Both are run scorers and producers. Give Jeter the edge as a pure hitter, Rollins check marks for power from both sides and speed. Jeter’s intangibles are off the charts. Rollins revels on the Big Stage.

RINGS: Rollins 1, Jeter 4.

EDGE: Even.

Even? Wow. That’s pretty bold. Jimmy Rollins had a terrible year, while Jeter had a career year and if not for Joe Mauer he’d probably be your AL MVP. Really, here’s all you need to know about the Rollins vs. Jeter debate. A leadoff hitter’s job is to get on base. Rollins was much better at getting on base after the All Star break, but even then his OBP was only .305, which is absolutely terrible. Jeter’s OBP this season was .406 and his career OBP is .388, a much higher mark than Rollins has ever posted in a single season.

I love the Phillies and I love Rollins, but it is impossible to make an intelligent argument that Rollins is a better leadoff hitter than Jeter, which is probably why Conlin keeps things so vague in his column. Rollins gets “check marks for power from both sides” of the plate? Against lefties, J-Ro had two more home runs than Jeter. Against righties, Rollins had one more home run. Does that make up for the 100 points of OBP? Or Jeter’s 40 point advantage in slugging? Bill, did you take into account that Jeter played in a league with stronger pitching? Bill, when you give Rollins check marks for speed, is that because he had one more stolen base this season than Jeter? Because that seems pretty negligible. And did you notice that Jeter actually had a better stolen base percentage? Because that actually seems relevant.

Come on, Bill. Rollins is the man, and when it comes to making bold predictions and giving good quotes he has no peer. And you could make the case that Rollins is a better defender, even though ultimate zone rating suggests Jeter had the better season defensively, as well.

But Jeter is the better leadoff hitter, and it isn’t close.

In 2009, the Phillies have attempted to steal 82 times and have been successful 65 times, a 79 percent success rate.

That’s the best stolen base percentage in the NL, and it’s surprisingly good considering the team’s two “best” base stealers, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, have stolen 31 bases between them and have been caught 14 times (69 percent).

Last year, Victorino stole 36 bases and was caught 11 times, a 77 percent clip, while this year he’s only been successful 68 percent of the time. That’s a drop off, but it’s not alarming.

Rollins, on the other hand, has been successful only 70 percent of the time in 2009 after he  was successful 94 percent of the time in 2008 (47 out of 50). That’s a pretty steep decline.

Defensively, Rollins’ range factor per 9 innings is down this season to 3.7, after scoring 4.5 in 2009.

I know this is curious timing. After all, Rollins has been one of the hottest players in baseball over the last couple of weeks, after a terrible first half.

But after nearly 4 months of baseball it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Rollins is slowing down.

Maybe this is just a fluke? In 2002, he was only successful stealing bases 70 percent of the time (31 for 44), and in 2003 he was only successful 62 percent of the time (20/32). So he’s had mediocre seasons before. But since 2003, Rollins has been a base-stealing machine, with his stolen base percentage creeping steadily upward each year.

Moreover, Rollins has never posted a RF/9 below 4. Never.

Is he hurt? Is age catching up with him in a hurry? Or is there something else at play here?

UPDATE: In the five minutes since I published this post, Rollins has been caught stealing. Again. This time he was thrown out at second by Cubs catcher Jeff Baker.

Charlie Manuel: He managed the Indians to the playoffs in 2001, but lost to the Mariners in the first round after taking a 2-games-to-1 lead. In his first season, Manuel and the Phillies went 88–74, only one game back of the Wild Card. In 2006, Manuel and the Phillies finished just short of the playoffs once again, this time three games back of the wild card. Last year, the Phillies won the NL East, but were swept in the postseason by the Mets Rockies. Manuel isn’t considered a master tactician, but he’s earned a reputation as a Bobby Cox-style manager who keeps his players on an even keel, even in tough times.

Ryan Howard: He has no home runs and only one RBI in the playoffs this year. And while his OBP is a stellar .438, his batting average is only .185. Simply put, Howard needs to start hitting the ball. He showed signs of breaking out of his slump last night, hitting a double in his first at bat and stroking a ground ball single in his next plate appearance. This could be a sign of big things to come…or just a big tease.

Jimmy Rollins: He’s hitting .375 with a .412 OBP in the playoffs, but in the World Series he’s 0 for 10. That won’t last. It can’t last. Can it?

Brad Lidge: The Phillies’ closer is perfect in save opportunities this year. But how long can he keep this up? He’s got to blow one eventually, right?

Steve Phillips: He picked the Phillies to win in seven games, saying, “The Phillies win because of the quality and predictability of their ace, Cole Hamels, and their bullpen.” Of course, Phillips has been wrong before. Very wrong. Very often. He picked the Mariners to not only win the west this year, but to win 92 games (they won 61). But Phillips is bound to get one right eventually, right? The law of large numbers seems to be in his favor.

Via The fightins comes this absolute masterpiece from Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.

• Yesterday, I watched Pat Burrell AND Ryan Howard leg out triples. This was Howard’s fifth career triple and Burrell’s 12th, though only his third since 2003. There is almost nothing more enjoyable than watching slow guys leg out triples. I remember watching Sean Casey go from home to third last year for his first triple since 2004. When he got there, gasping for breath and grinning from ear to ear, his teammates mocked him from the dugout. You would have thought Casey was wearing his underwear outside his pants for all the grief he got. Glorious.
• My friend Kevin is a Red Sox fan. I’m a Phillies fan. I asked him who was pitching today and he looked it up on his computer. “John Lester and Jamie Moyer,” he said. “Oh, good,” I said. “Moyer’s old, but I love him. He almost threw a no-hitter his last time out.” “You know who did throw a no-hitter this season?” Kevin asked. What a jerk.
• Chase Utley is in a funk. He’s 0 for his last 12. You can tell, he’s just not swinging the bat with any confidence. Yesterday he went 0-5. He did pick up an RBI, but it was on a check-swing ground ball. Fortunately, Ryan Howard picked up Utley’s slack, hitting two homers and a triple. That’s what is so dangerous about this Phillies team. They’ve got four guys who are legit stars (Howard, Rollins, Utley and Burrell) and on any given night one or two of them can carry the load.
• Watching the Phillies play the Sox, I couldn’t help but think that there’s much less of a talent gap between the two teams than there was as recently as last season. Philadelphia has improved with the addition of Brad Lidge and Pedro Feliz. And Boston, minus Big Papi, just isn’t the same offensive juggernaut. Right now, I’d still give Boston an advantage in a seven game series, because I think their starting pitching is a little stronger. But that could change if the Phillies acquire a pitcher like Rich Harden or Erik Bedard.
• I’m starting to think the Phils should trade for Rich Harden or Erik Bedard (preferably Harden, because Bedard seems like he is no fun). This Phillies team is good enough to win now. And there’s no guarantee that next year’s team will be as strong. Burrell is a free agent and while he says he wants to stay, it’s unclear if the Phils will be willing to spend $15 million a year to keep him. Lidge will be a free agent, and he’ll probably go where the money is. So why not go for broke? It would probably mean trading one of the team’s promising young starters (Carasco or Outman), but Harden is one of the most dominant pitchers around when healthy. It would be a gamble, but one that could pay huge dividends.
• My dad asked an interesting question the other day: would a team like the Oakland A’s or Cleveland Indians be willing to take Brett Myers as part of a trade for Harden or C.C. Sabathia? I don’t know the answer to that, but my instinct is no. Myers comes with too much baggage and he’s scheduled to make $12 million in 2009, so the Phils would probably have to eat a lot of his salary to make him appealing to another team. I don’t see that happening. Also, Myers is a free agent after 2009 and teams will be looking to acquire younger guys who will be under team control for much longer than that.

Before the season started, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said he thought his team had a chance to break the franchise record for most runs scored – 944. Just how close are the Phillies to that goal? Let’s check in.

The Phils started off a little slow. They scored 127 runs in 27 games in April, good for 10th in MLB. Then they got scorching hot, scoring 175 runs in 29 games in May, more than any other team that month. So far in June, they’ve been just so-so, scoring 40 runs in 9 games.

All told, the Phils have scored 342 runs in 65 games, or 5.26 runs per game. If they keep up that rate, they’ll score 510 runs over the next 97 games, for a total of 852 runs. That’s obviously far short of the record.

But what if you’re of the opinion that the Phillies turned a corner in May and that they’ll continue their hot hitting for the rest of the season? Since May 1, the Phils have averaged 5.66 runs per game. If they keep it up, they’ll score 548 runs over the next 97 games, for a total of 890 runs. That’s still well short of what they need.

But, what if you are extremely optimistic and figure that the Phils will repeat their May success in June, July, August and September? That would mean scoring 6.03 runs over the remaining 97 games. If the Phillies do that, they will finish with a total of 927 runs – still 17 runs shy of the record.

A more realistic goal would be simply topping last season’s mark of 892 runs. That’s within reach, though hardly a gimme.

While we’re on the topic of Phillies records, what about Jimmy Rollins’ stated goal of winning 100 games? Can the Phillies pull that off? So far the team is 39-27. That means a winning percentage of .591. If they maintain that pace they’ll win 57 more games, for a cumulative record of 96-66. That would be a little short of 100, but it would make my preseason prediction of 95 wins look pretty smart.

Earlier this week, Sarah pointed out that Babes Love Baseball is previewing each MLB team — in haiku form. Not to be outdone, Jos Posnanski is writing limericks about each team’s chances.

Remember that ESPN Page 2 story about how ballplayers don’t care about politics? Well, Jimmy Rollins is into politics. Maybe he and C.J. Wilson could be buds?

While Rollins is reading up on the candidates, Brett Myers must be spending a lot of time at the lanes. The 700 Level reports that Myers bowled a near-perfect game the other night at a team bowling event — a 279.

Flotsam media uses a golfer’s attack on a bird as an excuse to post video of a Randy Johnson fastball exploding a dove. I will never get tired of that video.

Jim Baker at BP Unfiltered speaks for all of us when he expresses his hatred for making mistakes in his column. We’ve all been there, and we hear ya, Jim.

Here’s a fascinating story, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal, via USS Mariner. The St. Louis Cardinals are inviting fans to submit scouting reports on promising college ballplayers.

When the submissions are in, the team plans to send its own scouts to evaluate a handful of the most interesting prospects and, in June, to possibly select one or more of them in baseball’s amateur draft. The winning fan — the one whose entry is judged most compelling, whether a player is drafted or not — gets a trip to St. Louis to see a pair of ball games.

Pretty cool, right?

The Phils unveiled their new alternate uniform today, which will be worn during home day games.

The unis were modeled by Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels and HOF member Robin Roberts.

A couple of thoughts on these photos:

1. Jimmy Rollins knows how to work a runway. This should come as no surprise. Say what you will about Rollins’ work on the field, but he’s certainly among the most likeable players Philly has ever had.
2. Cole Hamels looks silly wearing sneakers with his baseball jersey.
3. The new uniforms are cool. I like them a lot. And since they are old school, I’m guessing Bill Conlin approves.

You can see more pics of the Phils’ new uniforms here and here.