Paul emailed me this morning to ask me my thoughts on the Phillies trade for A’s SP Joe Blanton…

Paul: Mr. Ward, your thoughts?

Coley: Blanton is a clear upgrade over Eaton and will help get the Phils to the playoffs. But he’s not the kind of pitcher who will dominate in the playoffs. He’s not a guy who’s going to go toe to toe with Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, Rich Harden or Johan Santana and win. I feel like people are saying the same things about Blanton that they said about Carlos Silva this winter: he’s not that good, but he’ll eat innings and that’s valuable. So I suppose, at the very least, we’re not paying Blanton nearly as much as the Mariners are paying Silva. That’s something, right?

Sarah: Well, you also have to consider that Blanton won’t be matched up against Sabathia, Beckett, Santana, etc…because that will be Hamels’ job. Blanton will be matched up against the likes of a Dice-K.

Paul: Coley, your unwavering insistence that the Phillies are playoff bound is still funny to me. I think Blanton will be an average or slightly below average starter in Philly. Another Kyle Kendrick, basically. And it’s amazing to me that Philly’s farm system was THIS poor that guys like Outman and Cardenas were two of your top 4 prospects.

Coley: Yeah, the farm system sucks. And I know Blanton won’t have to match up against Beckett. But right now the Phillies don’t have a number 2 starter. What we needed was a number 2 starter. And what we got is Blanton. Here are the top two starters from teams that are likely to make the playoffs in the NL:

Webb and Haren
Zambrano and Harden
Sabbathia and Sheets
Santana and Martinez (or Pelfrey)

Is Blanton as good as any of the pitchers listed above? No. Is he close? Not really.

Basically, the Phils need to hope that Brett Myers remembers how to be a badass. And that’s a lot to hope for, considering Myers is currently a minor league pitcher.

MLB Trade Rumors has compiled a rundown of what the blogosphere is saying about the Blanton trade. Read it here.

Going into the season the Phillies had some obvious question marks, but none more glaring than the bullpen. Last year’s bullpen was bad. How bad? I won’t bore you with statistics, but suffice it to say that when you’re regularly pitching Jose Mesa and Antonio Alfonseca, you’ve got problems.

This season, Brad Lidge was given a shot to finish games. It was a gamble, handing over closing duties to a guy with a notoriously fragile psyche. Philadelphia, I’m told, isn’t the ideal place to rebuild one’s confidence. But so far this season, Lidge has been perfect. And the Phillies bullpen, amazingly, has been the best in the NL. Moreover, the team’s offense has been second only to the Chicago Cubs.

Yet all is not well in the City of Brotherly Shove, as the Phils find their lead over the dreaded New York Metropolitans shrinking by the day.

So what do the Phillies need to win the NL East, if not bullpen help or offense?

Nothing.

You heard me. The Phillies are good enough as assembled to win the NL East. The problem isn’t making the playoffs (not that anything is assured). The problem is what happens once they get there.

The Phillies simply don’t have the kind of dominant starting pitching that it takes to win in the playoffs. Cole Hamels is the real thing, for sure. But after Hamels the talent level drops off considerably.

Brett Myers was supposed to be the team’s no. 2, but right now he’s in the minors. He’s scheduled to rejoin the team this week, but it’s hardly a safe bet to assume he’s rediscovered what it takes to dominate hitters.

The popular rumor at the moment is that the Phillies will trade for Oakland SP Joe Blanton, who certainly has a solid track record. But you have to be nervous about trading for a guy with a 1.41 WHIP and an ERA just under 5.00.

Such is the tricky situation Phillies GM Pat Gillick finds himself in. He has a paper thin farm system that he doesn’t want to further deplete. Yet he needs to acquire a top-flight starter if this team has any chance of advancing in October. Moreover, the best starters – Sabathia and Harden – are off the market.

Blanton might be the Phils’ best bet. He’s young. He’s cheap. And he’ll remain under team control through the 2010 season, so he won’t be just a two month rental. Last season was Blanton’s break-out. He pitched 230 innings, recording 140 K’s, a 1.20 WHIP and a nearly 4:1 K/BB. He probably won’t repeat those numbers this season. But, because he has been pretty crappy so far, his price probably isn’t as high as it was in February, when it was rumored the A’s were asking for Homer Bailey and Joey Votto for Blanton.

There’s been a rumor that the Giants will shop Matt Cain, and that the Phillies could be buyers. But that seems highly unlikely. A.J. Burnett is available, but he’s also been very erratic this season – and he’s a total d-bag.

No, I suspect it’ll be Blanton. And that’ll be an upgrade over Kyle Kendrick, to be sure. But while Blanton might bolster the Phils’ thin staff, he isn’t the kind of pitcher who is likely to dominate in the postseason. He’s a groundball pitcher, and that will no doubt serve him well in Citizen Bank Park, but he’s no Johan Santana.

Unfortunately, the only strikeout pitcher the Phillies are likely to add between now and July 31 is Brett Myers. And that’s far from a safe bet.

UPDATE: The Phillies have traded for Joe Blanton.

- What They Need Index -

Currently in second place in the AL West, the Oakland A’s are (surprise, surprise) performing better than most had expected of them prior to the season. After trading away their top hitter (Swisher) and pitcher (Haren) during the off-season, only androids (like Marvin here) - and UmpBump’s own Nick and Coley - figured that Oakland would be in the thick of the division race in 2008. But lookie what we have here.

Despite being 3 1/2 games behind Anaheim (and no, I will not call them LA), the A’s have by far the best run differential in their division, scoring 4.5 runs per game while giving up a paltry 3.8. Yes, it’s probably still too early to look too deeply into things like this, but it is worth a mention. So what do they need to make their push towards the post season? More pop.

Although being able to score 4.5 runs per game is pretty good, I don’t see how they can keep it up as they are currently constructed. Their team batting average is .255, which is below league average. But with runners in scoring position, that number jumps to .278, which third highest in the league. There’s a decent chance that those two numbers will become closer together by the end of the year. And I’m betting that it’s going to be their average with RISP that’s going to come down a bit, which is going to make their offense slightly below average.

While the addition of Frank Thomas certainly does help, unless Eric Chavez remains healthy, Jack Cust is the only guy in the lineup with considerable pop. There is currently no one on the squad with double-digit homerun totals. As a team, they are 25th in all of MLB in the category and 27th in slugging percentage - neither figure elicits images of a playoff-bound team.

I do think their pitching is for real, however. Or at least, good enough. I am watching Joe Blanton’s K and walk rates, and I do think that Dana Eveland’s walks are going to come back to haunt him one of these days. But even if one of these guys falter, they have a perfectly good replacement just waiting in the bullpen by the name of Chad Gaudin. Throw in what appears to be a stellar defense behind them - despite the presence of Cust in left -, and I think they can keep this good thing going. And if they had a little more muscle, I’d be pretty sure of it.

-What They Need Index-