Here it is folks, the final installment in our series on who should win the AL and NL MVP awards. Without further ado…

The National League

3. Miguel Cabrera
2. Ryan Howard
1. Albert Pujols

It seems that the conventional wisdom this season is Ryan Howard for MVP, because he leads the league in home runs and RBI and because his team is on the verge of the playoffs and without him would be on the verge of contraction.

As a Phillies fan, I’m more than eager to embrace Howard as this year’s MVP, but as a baseball fan, I have to ask: are we really still evaluating players based on statistics like batting average, home runs and RBIs? I thought we outgrew those numbers years ago. Or are old fashioned statistics back in style, just like tapered jeans and bubble skirts (I’m told).
Personally, I thought we decided long ago that statistics like slugging percentage, on-base percentage and runs created were better statistics to measure the impact of a player. And when you look at those more telling statistics, I think the choice for 2006 NL MVP is clear: it’s gotta be Albert Pujols.

Umpbumper Nick says there is no player he’d rather have on his team than Ryan Howard. But I have to question his logic.

But first, let’s talk about my third place vote, Miguel Cabrera. Has anybody not named Bobby Abreu ever put up awesomer numbers so quitely? He’s hitting .387 with runners in scoring position. He has been responsible for a higher percentage of his team’s runs produced (16.0 percent) than any regular player in the league. But you know what? He’s playing for a Marlins team that is fading fast and won’t finish above .500, let alone in the playoffs. So he’s out.
Now on to Howard and Pujols. Let’s start with fielding. This should be easy. Pujols is a good fielding first baseman, with the third best fielding percentage in the league and the best range among first basemen. Howard is tied for the league lead in errors. Advantage: Pujols.

Now let’s talk about hitting. To help make my point I’m going to borrow a few statistics from the world’s biggest baseball geek, the king of useless info, ESPN columnist Jason Stark. First, consider that Pujols is more clutch than Howard. Much more clutch. Average with runners in scoring position: Pujols .389, Howard .248. Two outs, men in scoring position: Pujols .421, Howard .230. Two outs, runners anywhere on base: Pujols .359, Howard .227. Oh yeah, and 18 of Pujols’ 45 homers have resulted in the Cardinals’ game-winning RBI — the most “game-winning homers” by any player in any season since Willie Mays had 19 in 1962. Howard, for the record, is second in the league this year — with half that many. Advantage: Pujols.

Last year, there was a big push to give the Cy Young Award to Roger Clemens, even though he only had 13 wins. Clemens had a tremendous ERA (1.87), but was hindered by pathetic run support. And in the end, the award went to Chris Carpenter. Pitchers need run support and power hitters need the guys in front of them to get on base. Howard has had the benefit of hitting behind Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and, until recently, on-base machine Bobby Abreu. Pujols has a bunch of nobodies in front of him. Want proof? Plate appearances with runners in scoring position: Howard 197 (and 73 RBI), Pujols 150 (and 72 RBI). That stat tells you all you need to know about the top of the Cardinals’ lineup that Howard has gone to the plate 47 more times with runners in scoring position than Pujols has. It tells you something about Pujols’ ability to rise to the moment that those trips have produced nearly the same number of RBI. Advantage: Pujols.

Look, both Howard and Pujols are valuable. Both have had great seasons. Both hit a ton of home runs and a ton of RBIs and have great OBPs. Neither the Cardinals or the Phillies would have made the playoffs this year without these guys (I know I’m jumping the gun on a Phillies post season appearance, but I just can’t help it!). But here’s what it comes down to for me: Pujols does more with less. He comes through in the clutch and he is, no disrespect to Howard, the most feared hitter in baseball.

The American League

3. David Ortiz
2. Derek Jeter
1. Joe Mauer

The AL has a lot of contenders vying for MVP. Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer are hitting for average, Jermaine Dye is hitting for power, David Ortiz is hitting in the clutch and Johan Santana has been unhittable. So how do we choose just one?

There are people who tell you that designated hitters shouldn’t be eligible for the MVP award. I don’t agree. There are people who will tell you that designated hitters should be weighed the same as position players. I don’t agree with that either. For me, a designated hitter has to do something truly historic for him to merit consideration as an MVP. He has to have a season that is so monstrous that it simply can’t be ignored. David Ortiz is a fantastic hitter. But he’s only half a player and he doesn’t play the offensive part of the game quite good enough to make up for the fact that he doesn’t even attempt the defensive part of the game.

For me, there are two complete players who are vying for MVP this season: Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer. Baseball Prospectus says that, aside from Travis Hafner, who played for a losing team and didn’t play in enough games for me to consider him for MVP, Jeter has the highest VORP in the AL. That surprised me. But maybe it shouldn’t have. Jeter brings a lot to the table. Everybody knows about his leadership, which can only be measured in one way: 9 straight AL East titles. But he also hits for avg. (.339), has a high OBP (.413), has some pop (14 HRs), plays a solid SS, and steals bases (32). Really, what’s not to like? And, granted, he’s playing in the middle of an absolutely stacked lineup, but those other guys aren’t swinging the bat for him and I’m not going to penalize a guy just because his teammates are good.

The other complete player is Joe Mauer. I gotta be honest, I didn’t know how I was going to choose an AL MVP until I read Umpbumper Nick’s post on Mauer. Now I’m convinced. If you haven’t read his post, it’s worth it. Mauer is leading the league in batting average. His .495 slugging percentage .428 OBP are by far the best at his position and are, just generally, excellent. But what really seperates Mauer from the pack is the way that he mans his position, throwing runners out at a Pudge-like rate and managing a pitching staff that has overachieved and has been, in the second half of the season, the best in baseball.

If Mauer keeps this up, he’ll go down in history as the best catcher ever. And it won’t even be close. What we’re seeing from Mauer is Tiger Woods-like dominance. You don’t see it everyday. You don’t see it every decade. Jeter is very good. He’s a leader. He’s a scrappy player. But he’s no Tiger Woods. And he’s no MVP.

My first stop when I started thinking about this year’s MVPs was at my local dictionary:

Valuable (adjective): 1. Having considerable monetary worth; costing or bringing a high price. 2. Having qualities worthy of respect, admiration, or esteem. 3. Of considerable use, service, or importance.

Hmmmm.

Well if you use definition no. 1, you’d have to give the AL MVP award to A-Rod every year. But since the MVP award isn’t a salary medallion, we must turn to definitions 2 and 3. Clearly, “considerable use, service, or importance,” measured by statistics, is the main criterion by which an MVP prize is awarded. But you can’t discount the less tangible “qualities worthy of respect, admiration, or esteem.” Also, I know that people generally don’t vote for designated hitters or pitchers, but I think this is a silly, arbitrary, and almost cruel prejudice. Finally, the team has to be a good team. Not necessarily a playoffs-bound team, but good.

So with this in mind, let’s start with the Senior Circuit. Ryan Howard’s monstrous, monstrous offensive stats (57 homers as of today; 147 RBI) must make him the frontrunner. However, I would like to point out for all the anti-DH “purists” out there that Howard is a among the worst in fielding for a starting NL first baseman. He’s basically a DH who happens to stand at first for three outs between hitting. This gives leaves room for an upset by Pujols, whose offensive stats are still gaudy, but who has a much better fielding percentage and range factor. Of course, if you’re trying to figure out the odds of either one of them getting the award, Howard is definitely helped by the holy-cow-what-is-he-doing August and early September he just had. Pujols was a more established star at the start of the season and was on pace to break the single-season home run record at the beginning of the year—-however, spending time on the DL and a relatively cool bat later in the season put the kibosh on that. So if this were a presidential race, you’d say that Pujols was sort of the Howard Dean, if you will, an early favorite who lost momentum, while Howard has the advantage of getting hot at the right time—so my money’s on him to win. And for a third choice? That’s tough. But just to be tricksy, I’m picking Freddy Sanchez. I don’t think he’ll actually win, but wouldn’t it be cool if he did? (It would serve Boston right for getting rid of him—yes, watching these meaningless games in the Fens has me feeling vindictive, even sadistic.) As of Friday, his average is an MLB-leading .347, and while he hasn’t played enough games at one infield position to qualify for a ranking at any of them, he’s got more games played at third (93) than any other “unqualified” infielder (if you follow me) and his fielding percentage at that position is better than any of the “qualified” third basemen. Nor has he made an error in 20 games at second this season. (He has 4 boo-boos during 28 games at short.) Ten errors in 148 games this year? Not too shabby. Not too shabby at all. Counting against him? Well, I’m sure his team liked having those 83 runs batted in, but his power is just not there, nor is his on-base percentage among the league’s leaders. His stolen bases and caught stealing are almost the same. And his team isn’t a good team. The Pirates suck. But I needed three, so he’s my third.

Now, the American League—much tougher. While the NL has a clear frontrunner and a close second, with everyone else a distant also-ran, the AL has several contenders all neck-and-neck. Derek Jeter is getting good press from even the Boston writers, but I don’t know. Someone more clever than me wrote that if Jeter gets the AL MVP, it’ll be a “lifetime achievement award.” Derek is second in the batting title race this morning, and his fielding this year has been solidly middle-of-the-pack, though of course we all know that every time he plays he leaves it all on the field yadda yadda yadda okay. He mostly seems to be a contender for two reasons: one, his team is good. Very good. Annoyingly, heart-wrendingly, maddeningly good. (Shut up.) And two, he’s the captain of this incredibly good year-after-year team, which has just happened to win the AL East title every year he’s been on it. In other words, he’s got “intangibles.” Some scoff at the idea of intangibles. I don’t. I’m just not sure exactly whether Derek Jeter has them or not. (Also, not that this has to do with anything, but I really do think he’s gay, and that the rotating bevy of babes he trots out like show dogs are just a clever ruse. Come out, Derek! Stop living a lie!) I’m not opposed to the idea of a lifetime achievement MVP, if no one else in the league really deserves it that year. But do they? Let us ponder.

You’ve got the M&Ms on the Twins—Mauer and Morneau (or Joe and Justin, if you prefer—that’s also pretty snappy, but I couldn’t figure out a cute candy nickname with the letter J). In some ways, both are doing so well, and on the same team (a good team and a so-hot-right-now-Hansel team) I feel like they almost cancel each other out. I’m sure the baseball writers of America would like to award the MVP jointly to both of them, but that’s just not how it’s done. Mauer and Morneau are both in the top five in average. Mauer is currently edging out Jeter for the batting title, while Morneau is second (after David Ortiz) in RBI. Mauer may get incredulity points (a catcher as batting champ? a really good catcher as batting champ??) while Morneau is just another (yawwwwn) slugging first baseman. Is that fair? No, but life’s not fair. So between the Twins’ twins, I’d say Mauer has a clear edge over Morneau.

Then you’ve got Johan Santana, the first pitcher to seem like a legit AL MVP candidate since Pedro Martinez’s storied 1999 season. But I can’t give it to Santana, as awesome as he’s been this year. When Pedro was robbed that year, he won 23 games (Santana has 18 this season) and had a lower ERA (2.07 to 2.79) and had 313 strikeouts (Santana has 240). Also I have to say, 1999 was way before the Great Deflation. All kindsa sluggers were injecting all kindsa things. So to me, Pedro’s pitching triple crown is just more impressive than Santana’s. Is it fair to compare anyone to Pedro in 1999? No, it’s completely unjust. And do two wrongs (denying two deserving pitchers the MVP) make a right? No. But this is baseball, sport of caprice. If Pedro can’t have it, NO ONE CAN. Bitterness 1, Johan 0.

Which brings me, of course, to David Ortiz. In my heart of hearts, I want him to have it. I do. I wanted him to have it last year. I think he deserves it, at some point. But given that the Sox were pretty much out of the postseason chase weeks ago, given that he is a DH (and while I’m willing to give it to a DH, I think that, like a pitcher, it’s got to be a standout case of deservedness, where the candidate is head-and-shoulders, Pedro-in-1999 above the rest) and given that the AL field of candidates is so crowded this year, I’m just not sure he will get it. But does he deserve it? Let’s take a moment to reflect in a calm and dispassionate manner. He’s had five walkoff hits this year (15 in his career with Boston), so without him, the Sox would have fallen from contention even sooner. He’s had 52 dingers (breaking a Sox club record that had stood since 1938) and 132 RBI—in fact, his slugging stats this year were so good, that even when he missed a week’s worth of games with an irregular heartbeat, no one else came close to dethroning him. Getting less fanfare than his homers and ribbies, but no less “of considerable use, service, or importance,” he’s first in the AL in walks (yes, even with Manny Ramirez hitting behind him for most of the season), second in slugging, third in runs scored, and third in OPS. Also, he’s David Ortiz. Clubhouse intangibles? Check. Awesome nickname? Check. Even managers of other teams send him thank-you notes for “what he’s done for the game.” Yowza.

But for me, silly dictionary definitions aside, “valuable” just means, “Which of these dudes would you rather have on your team?” Since this is UmpBump and not actually an MVP ballot, I’ll give Morneau and Jeter a tie for third. (What the hell Johan, you can tie for third place, too.) While Jeter’s run has gathered about it the sense of resigned inevitibility of, say, the Kerry nomination, I predict that like that campaign, it will ultimately fall short (I don’t know why this all seems so much like the 2004 election). He’ll get over it, though. Unlike John Kerry, Derek Jeter has his own cologne.

And the runner-up, in case the MVP is not able to fulfill his duties….is Joe Mauer. (He’s young. He’ll win another year.)

Therefore, the winnah and still champeen: David Americo Ortiz! Wow, that’s funny. I realize that no one reading this is surprised that he’s my pick, but I really didn’t think I was going to choose him when I started this post (about thirty seven years ago). Honest!

Oh, and yeah—I stuck to three picks per league because that was the deal, and I’m not an overachieving Harvard scholar.  I did write way too much, but that’s just because I’m a woman, and we talk a lot. Also because I feel like these MVP picks have become a sort of UmpBump arms race—bigger better faster more! Up next: Coley’s film treatment/Russian novel/phone book.

Here is my take on who should be the National League and American League MVPs this year. Unlike Alejandro, I am not trying to guess who will actually be named MVP. Rather, I have tried to decide who actually is the most valuable player in each league. Also, I have offered up my top five picks for each league, because that’s just the generous type of guy I am.

National League

5. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
Has anybody been more valuable to the Houston Astros over the past three years? You could make a case for Roger Clemens, but the fact is that if you took Clemens’ bloated salary and actually signed some offensive players, the Astros probably would have won a World Series by now, instead of losing 2-1 whenever Clemens pitches. But the fact is that over the last three years, whenever Berkman is hurt, the Astros lose, and lose horribly, but as soon as Berkman is back in the lineup, the Astros zoom back into contention. This year, Berkman is rather quietly having the best year of his career. He is third in the National League with 126 runs created, and is on pace to set career highs in home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage.

4. Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cinncinati Reds
The Reds surprised everyone by contending for most of the season, and that fact is almost entirely due to the Wayne Krivskey’s brilliant acquisition of Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena. The Reds have always had tons of offense but have never had any pitching, particularly starting pitching. That is, until Bronson came along and significantly exceeded his career norms to pitch like a Cy Young candidate and give the Reds a legitimate stopper every five days or so. Plus, Bronson quickly became a team leader and showed himself to be an absolute gamer, demanding the ball in the biggest games and volunteering to pitch on three days rest on several occasions. Many people think that the MVP should go to the player who was most valuable to his team, and if that is truly your criterion, it would be very hard not to give the award to Arroyo.

3. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
A 23-year-old rookie, Russell Martin wasn’t called up from the minor leagues until May, but he has been an absolute godsend to the Dodgers, and I can say with absolute certainty that the Dodgers would not be anywhere near contention now if not for his presence. When Martin was called up, Dodgers catchers had only thrown out one runner in about 30 attempts as teams ran wild on 80-year-old Sandy Alomar Jr., and limp-armed Dioner Navarro. But then Martin came on and has thrown out an amazing 32 percent of basestealers. Martin has also been an oldschool workhorse behind the plate, catching 104 out of 124 games since his callup, and once even catching a Sunday day game immediately after catching all 15 innings of an extra-inning Saturday night game. Despite being a complete rookie who came straight from double-A, Martin has also impressed everyone with his veteran-like leadership behind the dish, once telling Derek Lowe he would not leave the fucking mound until Lowe calmed the fuck down, and drawing rave reviews from no less than the great Greg Maddux himself, who says of Martin, “He has very good baseball sense…If you can’t throw to this guy, you can’t throw to anybody.” But perhaps most importantly of all, Martin has been the only real clutch hitter and leader-type on a team full of introverted types like Nomar, Jeff Kent, and J.D. Drew, serving as the voice of the team to the media despite being a rookie and hitting several huge, David-Ortiz-like late inning homers down the stretch. I don’t think anybody but me will even put Martin on their MVP ballot at all, but the numbers to back it up are astonishing. When Martin catches, the Dodgers are 64-42, 22 games over .500. When anyone else catches, the Dodgers are 16-31, 15 games under .500. Sounds like a pretty damn valuable player to me.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Every year, the Cardinals get worse and worse, and yet every year they still win the NL Central, because every year Albert Pujols gets better and better. The guy is an absolute beast, leading the entire major leagues in OPS and slugging. Considering the still ascending trendline in his season stats from year to year, it is truly scary to think that we may not even have seeen what King Albert is truly capable of yet. But he was not the most valuable player in the league this year.

1. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies
I once said that the only way the Phillies could make the playoffs was if Ryan Howard hit 40 home runs in August and September. Howard has done just about everything he could do except that, and the Phillies, once dead in the water, are now only half a game out of the wild card. Looking at the numbers, Ryan Howard leads the major leagues with 144 runs created this year, and a ridiculous 10.00 runs created per 27 outs. This means that a team of nine Ryan Howards would score 10 runs every game. And while I generally don’t put much stock in traditional statistics, sometimes you just have to gawk at them and let your mouth hang open when you see that Howard is on pace for 61 homers and 149 RBI. As much as I was hoping to have an uncoventional pick for NL MVP, I have to go with the crowd on this one, because, let’s face it, is there any player in the entire National League that you would rather have had on your team this year than Ryan Howard? I think the answer is clear.

American League

5. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians
If Travis Hafner hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury that cost him all of September, he would have forced his way into serious contention for the MVP award, despite the fact that the Indians won’t make the postseason. Simply put, when Hafner played this year, he was the most devastating hitter in all of baseball, delivering a staggering 10.31 runs created per 27 outs, puting the NL’s Ryan Howard a distant second among major leaguers with 10.00 RC/27. Even with the injury, Hafner was still a tremendously valuable player for the Indians this year, putting up dazzling numbers of .308/.439/.659 to go along with 46 homers, 100 runs, and 117 RBI - all this in only 5 months of play.

4. Johan Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
It is clear that Johan Santana is the best pitcher on the planet right now, which makes him a pretty darn valuable player. Although his stellar projected numbers of 19-6, 2.79, and 256 Ks certainly bring him to the fringes of the MVP discussion, they are not quite amazing enough to put him over the top. Whereas someone like Pedro Martinez in 1999 clearly deserved to be MVP (even though he was snubbed), the cult of the 100-pitch-count limit has made it increasingly difficult for a pitcher to put up the kind of truly dominant numbers that could lead to MVP consideration. Still, it’s scary to contemplate what kind of numbers Santana would have put up this year if he hadn’t suffered from a case of WBC disease in April, when he started off the year 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.

3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians
Quick, which player is second in the American League to only David Ortiz in runs created this season? You can easily be forgiven if you didn’t know that it was Grady Sizemore before reading this post. Sizemore has had an absolutely amazing season, and is on pace for 136 runs, 55 doubles, 27 home runs, and 75 RBI out of the leadoff spot. Plus, unlike most of the other players on these lists who are first-basemen or DH’s, Sizemore plays one of the all-important “skill positions” up the middle, where he contributes a lot more on the defensive side with his outstanding defense in centerfield. Sizemore has also maximized his value to his team with his durability, playing in every single Indians game so far this season. It is no wonder that the most popular item of apparel among young women this season at Jacobs Field is the jersey that says “Mrs. Sizemore” on the back.

2. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
David Ortiz continues to leave the door open to speculation that he is some sort of freakish alien from outer space, as he finishes off a season even more ridiculous than the last two, leading the American League in runs created, breaking the Red Sox record for homers, and getting ever more implausible game-winning clutch hits. I am not sympathetic at all to the contention that the MVP should never go to a DH, especially when one of those DH’s is the guy who made sabermetricians rethink the idea that there is no such thing as clutch hitting. If Ortiz had somehow lifted the Red Sox to the postseason on the sheer force of his will, I think everyone would have conceded the point, but that has not happened, and Ortiz has slumped a bit down the stretch to the point where it once again enters the conversation that he does not contribute any runs prevented on defense, has Manny Ramirez hitting behind him, and plays in a very hitter friendly park.

1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
To truly measure a player’s value, you have to take into account how easy it would be to replace his production with other players. The fact is, far too many first-basemen win MVP awards, because even though first basemen tend to put up huge offensive numbers, they don’t contribute many runs prevented on defense and it is relatively much easier to find another hard-hitting first-baseman than another, oh I don’t know, say, a hard-hitting catcher. Check this out: Joe Mauer as of this writing has created 100 runs for his team. As a catcher. That is an amazing number for any player, but when you consider all the other value Mauer brings to his team as an outstanding catcher, his offense catapults him into MVP territory. We are talking about a catcher who is batting .345 and slugging .500, and is only 23 years old. Basically, we are seeing a young Mike Piazza offensively, only whereas Piazza was a terrible defensive catcher, Mauer not only contributes on defense, but is in fact a dominant defensive catcher, throwing out nearly 40 percent of would-be basestealers and fielding at a .995 clip. So he’s really more like a combination of the best traits of a young Mike Piazza and a young Ivan Rodriguez. Because he puts up a .950 OPS and dazzling defense at a position that is otherwise thought of as an offensive wasteland, or else a tradeoff between offense or defense, Mauer is literally irreplaceable. If you were going to start an expansion team and you could pick any player to build your team around for the future, you would pretty much have to pick Joe Mauer. But he is already the most valuable player in the American League, even now.