This is one of a series of posts in which we grade each team’s wily hot stove maneuvers and tragic offseason blunders.

So yes, the Twins finally succumbed to the inevitable and traded Johan Santana to a contender. But prior to the deal going through, common sense had the Mets giving up a boatload of young talent in return for the veteran hurler and multiple Cy-Young winner. Of all, one prospect came across as the centerpiece of the deal; alas, Fernando Martinez is still a member of the Mets organization and the four prospects that were sent over are not necessarily tickling the collective pickle of Twins fans across the board.

Last year, the Twins were facing arbitration with six core member of their starting nine, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, Juan Rincon and Lew Ford; eventually they reached deals with all of them but at a price. Though the resigned Joe Mauer to a 4-year, $33 million deal, 2006-AL-MVP Morneau agreed to a one-year deal only. There was legitimate concern that Morneau would be priced out of reach for the Twins, a small market team, and thus they would have to face a situation similar to the Santana sweepstakes.

Well, in case it got lost in the Santana hoopla, and fortunately for Twins fans, Morneau resigned for a whopping 6-year, $80 million dollars – the biggest contract in Twins history –avoiding the gloomy prospect of losing two of its biggest stars in the same offseason. (Oh yea, Cuddyer also cashed in at a cool $24 million for a 3-year deal).

So on the surface, the Twins spent the offseason trying to take the lesser of two evils: trade one their superstars, and sign one of them longterm, instead of letting both of them go.

But if you look close, new GM Bill Smith made a flurry of moves to revamp his lineup.

After a subpar 2007 by Nick Punto, the Twins signed Mike Lamb for a frugal $6.6 million to handle third and to provide an offensive boost to the lineup. But don’t pencil him in just yet, Punto is better defensively, so he’ll get his share of ABs.

Jason Bartlett, the team’s “shortstop of the future” was traded in November (along with SP Matt Garza) for Delmon Young (who’ll likely start in left field) in a six-player deal that also brought in infielder Brendan Harris. Smith signed veteran Adam Everett to take Bartlett’s place and the team hopes Harris will be able to take over second base.

With left field in the hands of Young, and right field safely in the hands of newly resigned Cuddyer, there’s that center field crater, void, hole, ditch, etc, that was left vacant when Torii Hunter skipped town. Carlos Gomez, who comes over from the Mets as part of the Santana deal is a good candidate, but Smith made sure he had plenty of posibilities for the job, so he signed Craig Monroe.

The bullpen is again anchored by closer Joe Nathan; though that may not be for long as Nathan enters the last year of his contract and may be traded to a contender if the Twins fail to make any noise in the AL Central.

And then, there’s the rotation. The departures of Santana, Garza, and Silva sure seem to leave behind a decapitated corpse. The return of Francisco Liriano might be cathartic for Twins fans, but for a while, all that remained beyond the #1 spot in the rotation were a handful unproven young arms (Carlos Silva left via free agency). So in hopes of avoiding the potential of having all starters under the age of 26, the Twins singed veteran hurler Livan Hernandez to add some experience to what may be a very inconsistent staff.

Many of the Twins woes have come about due to their “small market” status and the lack of big money that comes with it; the construction of their new stadium has hit various obstacles along the process but is set to open in 2010, when bigger (and more consistent) crowds may help secure funds to sign future stars.

From now until then, though, all the Twins can do is battle it out with what they’ve got.

Projected lineup, rotation and Closer

1. LF Delmon Young - .288 .316 .408
2. 3B Mike Lamb - .289 .366 .453
3. C Joe Mauer - .293 .382 .426
4. 1B Justin Morneau - .271 .343 .492
5. RF Michael Cuddyer - .276 .356 .433
6. CF Carlos Gomez - .232 .288 .304
7. 2B Brendan Harris - .286 .343 .434
8. DH Craig Monroe - .219 .268 .370
9. SS Adam Everett - .232 .281 .318

LF Francisco Liriano - DNP in 2007
RH Livan Hernandez - 11-11, 4.93 ERA
RH Boof Bosner - 8-12, 5.10 ERA
RH Scott Baker - 9-9, 4.33 ERA
RH Kevin Slowey - 4-1, 4.33 ERA

Closer: Joe Nathan - 37 sv, 1.88 ERA

Acquisitions: Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Delmon Young, Craig Monroe, Carlos Gomez, Livan Hernandez

Losses: Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Carlos Silva, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett (both in the Young deal).

Offseason grade: C

The Santana trade was a nasty affair and the Twins came out looking more like losers than winers; if we were to grade on that, they could not get higher than a D. But the fact that they managed to sign Morneau to a long-term deal was significant enough to upgrade the perennial D to a C.

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

New York Times sportswriter, George Vecsey, penned a wonderfully ridiculous article in today’s edition, essentially playing the role of party pooper in the Johan Santana celebration. Why? Quite frankly, I’m not sure. And I’m not convinced that George knows either. He writes:

Omar Minaya may ice the deal for Johan Santana any hour now but, until further notice, the Mets are still the team that fell apart last September, disastrously.

The Mets still have to report to their legion of self-appointed probation officers, that is to say, Mets fans, on a regular basis from now until October to prove they are not recidivists in the worrisome habit of folding.

Actually, George, in case you didn’t notice, the majority of us Mets fans (rightly or wrongly), are quite happy at the moment. If we really are the “probation officers”, then the ex-con just dropped off James “Whitey” Bulger on our front doorstep.

I would strongly advise giddy Mets fans to envision the Marlins and the Nationals whacking them around in the final two weeks of last season. That should neutralize the euphoria, assuming Minaya and the family Wilpon sign the Twins’ star lefty to a six-year contract.

Why would we want to do that? That sounds about as much fun as punching yourself in the groin repeatedly just to prevent yourself from making a move on that incredibly cute girl standing across the room and giving you that ‘come hither’ stare. It’s completely irrational.

Essentially, the Mets are front-ending their pitching staff — Santana for the departed Tom Glavine. That upgrade does not necessarily make them a better…

And this is where Vecsey’s logic supernovas into a blackhole. Is he really arguing that keeping Tom Glavine may actually have been preferable to adding Johan Santana? Do I even need to post comparative statistics to prove how inane that suggestion is?

Even if Santana stays healthy, he is 28, and pitchers can fall apart in a heartbeat. For that matter, he did not have such a wonderful September himself.

See, George, you were so freaking close to making a coherent statement with that first sentence. Yes, pitchers (moreso than hitters) are a fragile bunch. But “he is 28″ is your argument? 28 is too old for you? I’m 27 and am still waiting to hit puberty for god’s sakes (any day now…). And picking one freaking month - 5 games - out of a pitcher’s 251-game career (that’s less than 2% of games he’s appeared for those who care) simply doesn’t make sense.

Besides, he can start only once every five games, or somewhat more than 30 starts a season.

Do I need to continue? Fine. I’ll keep going. By this logic, no starting pitcher in MLB is worth much of anything since they “can only start once every five games”. But Jon Rauch is more valuable because he pitched decently in 88 games.

Let’s say (Santana) wins 20 games. He is still taking up a certain number of starts that would have been made, and perhaps even won, by another regular.

I’m not even going to talk about VORP to get my point across. But this is like trying to minimize the impact of Alex Rodriguez by making a case for Wilson Betemit. Had the Mets not landed Santana, they would have trotted Mike Pelfrey - or even worse, signed Livan Hernandez - instead.

Little has changed since last September. Paul Lo Duca is being replaced by Brian Schneider at catcher, maybe an upgrade in defense and comportment but a downgrade in hitting, and they now have Ryan Church in right field, not necessarily a big deal.

Um, have you forgotten what you were writing about in the first place? Isn’t the whole point of this article to talk about the Mets trading for Johan Santana? That’s a “little change”?

The core of the team remains the same. Moises Alou was a rock last September, but he turns 42 this summer. David Wright is terrific, but not yet the assertive leader he may be someday. Carlos Beltrán has his moments.

You know something’s wrong when Moises Alou is described as “a rock” but Carlos Beltran - arguably the best all round centerfielder in baseball - is diminished to a “has his moments”.

On a team constructed with veteran players, many of them Latino, no critical mass of leadership emerged to shake Reyes out of his walkabout… It appears that nobody took Reyes into the back room and said, “¿Qué tal?”— what’s up?

See, now you’re just guessing to make a point. And not only that, what does being Latino have anything to do with anything?

Ultimately, you can make the case that the Mets shouldn’t have traded away their future. I disagree given the supposed talent levels of the prospects headed to Minnesota, but at least it’s a plausible argument. You can make the case that no pitcher deserves such a lengthy guaranteed deal and logistically speaking, you’d be right. But for a big-market team like the Mets - with their own cable network and a new stadium opening in 2009, the financial damage isn’t completely crippling.

But what doesn’t make sense is trying to argue that the 2008 Mets are not a better team now than they were last week. It doesn’t make sense to insinuate that keeping Tom Glavine instead of acquiring the best pitcher in baseball may have been the right move. And even Vecsey himself can’t believe that Carlos Beltran is simply a player who “has his moments”.

AAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

See what you did, George? You reduced me to doing a terrible Lewis Black impersonation. I hope you’re happy, sir.

If you’re a fan of the New York Mets, you’re probably pretty excited about the team’s trade for Johan Santana. This is a big day for you. Enjoy it.If you’re a fan of one of the other NL East teams, particularly the Braves or Phillies, you’re probably pretty bummed that one of your rivals just landed a two-time Cy Young winner. But allow me to throw a little sunshine down on this seemingly dark news.There are a number of ways that the Johan Santana trade could mean more bad than good for Mets fans. Let’s count them:

1. Santana, after signing a seven-year $140 million extension, could get hurt. Moreover, he may already be hurt. The Twins’ ace didn’t have his usual stuff down the stretch in 2007. That could be indicative of an injury. But don’t take my word for it. Here’s what Buster Olney had to say about Santana’s 2007 finish:

I talked with evaluators and scouts with three other teams since then, and they all saw the exact same thing in Santana: diminishment in velocity, relatively few sliders thrown, subpar (for Santana) performances. But two of the three believe the regression could be attributed to the Twins not being in the race, Minnesota not playing in a high-adrenalin situation, and Santana coping with a cracked nail. The third evaluator wonders, too, if Santana is OK. “If a deal is made, you could see there would be a complete physical, given the money involved,” said the evaluator.

So, there’s that to look forward to — the possibility that Santana could be in line for a major surgery. Oh, if wishing made it so!

2. Santana eats his way out of town. Can’t you just see it? He works hard all his life to finally land that fat contract. After he gets the contract, he relaxes…and gets fat. It’s happened to so many ballplayers: Fernando Valenzuela, Curt Schilling, El Guapo…the list goes on and on. Have you seen Pedro Martinez lately? That guy looks like he landed a Krispy Kreme endorsement. If Johan starts eating meals with Pedro, watch out. Before you know it, Santana will be wearing a mumu and won’t be able to fit in any of the seats on the team’s private jet.

3. Santana pulls a David Beckham, invents a mysterious, nagging injury, and then dedicates himself to embracing his status as a gay icon by spending all his time going to fabulous parties and modeling underwear. What’s that you say? You didn’t know Santana was a gay icon? Well, he’s a Met, isn’t he?

After months of speculation, the Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for a package of young players—if, and only if, the Mets can sign Santana to a long-term deal in the next 72 hours. Since Santana has already rejected a 4 year, $80 million extension offered by Minnesota, he’s rumored to be looking for a six- or seven-year deal from New York, in the range of $20 million per.

If the Mets can make this happen, they will give up outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The Mets managed to hang on to their most prized prospect, outfielder Fernando Martinez. Bob Nightengale at USA Today, who first broke the story, calls Gomez a five-tool player, notes that he’s worked hard to cut down on his strikeouts, and sees him taking over in centerfield for the Twins. However, Rotoworld has a different take:

Gomez and Guerra are big-time talents, but Gomez lacks plate discipline and might not fit in the top half of the lineup and an awful lot could go wrong before Guerra even sniffs the majors. Mulvey and Humber are third starters at best and probably more like fourths. It’s a whole lot better than losing Santana for draft picks next winter, but we’d have taken a Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury package over this.

And as SI’s John Heyman notes, the current deal is the same offer the Mets made weeks ago.

For a hotly anticipated trade, this is deal is about as surprising as your average romantic comedy. The Yankees had already publicly announced their withdrawal from the auction, and the only other team rumored to be in the bidding was the Red Sox—who seemed involved only to keep the Yankees at bay. Could there be any doubting the ultimate betrothal of Johan Santana and the New York Mets?

Appropriate reactions now that this inevitable-for-weeks deal has finally gone down:

Mets fans: YEHAW!

Rest of NL East: *shudder.*

Yankee fans: Poop.

Red Sox fans: Phew.

Twins fans: Motherf***er.

Joe Posnanski’s blog is always great reading. Yesterday, he had a doozy on where the Royals stand in the chase for Santana. I won’t spoil it, but here’s the rub:

I decided to write my own, “Hey, now the Royals are in the Santana chase,” story. I got to Royals general manager Dayton Moore and asked, “Hey, why can’t you guys go get Johan Santana?”

He responded, basically, by suggesting that was not exactly one of the world’s great questions.

But you will notice … that’s not a denial. Am I right or am I right?

So here’s my story:KANSAS CITY — Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore on Wednesday did not deny that his team is very close to completing a trade for Minnesota Twins ace Johan Santana.

And we go from there.

It’s definitely worth a read, especially if it’s 6 pm Eastern on a Friday and you’re still stuck at the office.

Late yesterday, when word leaked out that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had removed the “untouchable” label from young centerfield sparkplug Jacoby Ellsbury in the Johan Santana sweepstakes, Bostonians immediately began making contingency plans. Option A: Grab one of Big Papi’s 33-ounce bats and use it to smash Epstein’s hands, preventing him from signing any deal involving the popular rookie. Option B, should Option A fail: When Minnesota GM Bill Smith and his goons when they arrive to collect, form a human chain with Jacoby safe inside.

Assuming that cooler heads will prevail in the halls of Yawkey Way and that the Red Sox will lose out on lefty ace Santana and retain Ellsbury, there will still be plenty of teams interested in Boston’s other centerfielder, the defensively spectacular Coco Crisp—whom Ellsbury’s phenomenal play renders expendable. In fact, if the Red Sox were determined to get a lefty starter in exchange for Crisp, there are plenty of other deals to consider. For instance, the Atlanta Braves are in the market for a new CF and have prospects to deal, including lefty pitcher JoJo Reyes. In Baltimore, they want new everything, and almost nobody is off-limits, including lefty pitcher Erik Bedard. If the Marlins can’t get a centerfielder as part of a deal for Cabrera, they might be willing to part with southpaw Dontrelle Willis as part of a deal for Crisp. The Brewers have pitching to spare, including lefty Chris Capuano, and even Coco’s mediocre offense would be an upgrade over Bill Hall. The Padres, Giants, and Rangers are all looking to upgrade at centerfield as well, and the Sox have been talking with Billy Beane about a move involving Crisp and young righty pitcher Danny Haren, whose UFH should help him fit right in in the Hub. Crisp could be part of a deal with any of these ballclubs.

The fact that so many teams are hunting for centerfielders only underlines the fact that the Red Sox should not be induced to part with Ellsbury for any price—even for Santana. Not only did Ellsbury perform way above his pay grade down the stretch in September, his insertion into the ALCS lineup saved Boston’s season. He’s already a front-runner for 2008’s Rookie of the Year. While I would be loath to see Santana end up in pinstripes, such a scenario is still preferable to watching in horror as the Red Sox go temporarily insane and empty their savings account to get Johan for themselves.

It’s amazing how the more things change, the more they stay the same. Looking at today’s headlines I noticed…

1. The Red Sox and Yankees are about to enter a bidding war.
2. Alex Rodriguez’s new contract (which hasn’t even been finalized yet) is creating some controversy.
3. The Cubs are hopeful Wood and Prior will contribute next season.
4. The Mariners are hoarding all the Japanese players.
5. Mike Hampton is hurt.

Before the season began, I made statements among my baseball-savvy friends that Ben Sheets may rival Johan Santana this year as the best pitcher in all of baseball. Now of course, health is a concern with Sheets (averaged 19.5 starts over past two years) but when he pitched, you can actually make a pretty good case that he was the only pitcher who could even be uttered in the same breath as Johan:

As the numbers show, Johan was still better, but not by much. ERA notwithstanding, their peripherals were very similar. They are both power pitchers who do a remarkable job at limiting walks and homeruns. If you don’t believe me, look around. Aside from these two, you will not find two starting pitchers who have this perfect assembly of limiting walks, homeruns, and contact simultaneously.

Which may be why this article caught my attention. After his first outing this year, in which Sheets threw a complete-game two hitter against the Dodgers, I noticed that he had only registered three strikeouts, but I chalked it up to flukiness. But his strikeout rate is yet to improve. 20 innings pitched. 8 strikeouts. That’s 3.6Ks per 9 innings. Chien-Ming Wang territory.

Sheets has obviously noticed.

“To me, the lack of missing bats is kind of startling,” Sheets said Sunday after yet another frustrating outing against the St. Louis Cardinals.

“I ain’t hit a spot all year, really,” he said. “I got away with everything (against the Dodgers). I didn’t miss any bats. They just hit it to people.”

Is Sheets DL-bound again? Seeing as the Brewers have an organizationally rampant hatred of all things defense, Sheets cannot succeed without his strikeouts. Bill Hall in centerfield will not be mistaken for Torii Hunter. Sheets has to limit the number of balls in play, and unless we see progress real soon on his strikeout numbers, he’s going to make me look absolutely stupid for even comparing him to Johan Santana (and we all know that’s the most important thing, right?).

My first stop when I started thinking about this year’s MVPs was at my local dictionary:

Valuable (adjective): 1. Having considerable monetary worth; costing or bringing a high price. 2. Having qualities worthy of respect, admiration, or esteem. 3. Of considerable use, service, or importance.

Hmmmm.

Well if you use definition no. 1, you’d have to give the AL MVP award to A-Rod every year. But since the MVP award isn’t a salary medallion, we must turn to definitions 2 and 3. Clearly, “considerable use, service, or importance,” measured by statistics, is the main criterion by which an MVP prize is awarded. But you can’t discount the less tangible “qualities worthy of respect, admiration, or esteem.” Also, I know that people generally don’t vote for designated hitters or pitchers, but I think this is a silly, arbitrary, and almost cruel prejudice. Finally, the team has to be a good team. Not necessarily a playoffs-bound team, but good.

So with this in mind, let’s start with the Senior Circuit. Ryan Howard’s monstrous, monstrous offensive stats (57 homers as of today; 147 RBI) must make him the frontrunner. However, I would like to point out for all the anti-DH “purists” out there that Howard is a among the worst in fielding for a starting NL first baseman. He’s basically a DH who happens to stand at first for three outs between hitting. This gives leaves room for an upset by Pujols, whose offensive stats are still gaudy, but who has a much better fielding percentage and range factor. Of course, if you’re trying to figure out the odds of either one of them getting the award, Howard is definitely helped by the holy-cow-what-is-he-doing August and early September he just had. Pujols was a more established star at the start of the season and was on pace to break the single-season home run record at the beginning of the year—-however, spending time on the DL and a relatively cool bat later in the season put the kibosh on that. So if this were a presidential race, you’d say that Pujols was sort of the Howard Dean, if you will, an early favorite who lost momentum, while Howard has the advantage of getting hot at the right time—so my money’s on him to win. And for a third choice? That’s tough. But just to be tricksy, I’m picking Freddy Sanchez. I don’t think he’ll actually win, but wouldn’t it be cool if he did? (It would serve Boston right for getting rid of him—yes, watching these meaningless games in the Fens has me feeling vindictive, even sadistic.) As of Friday, his average is an MLB-leading .347, and while he hasn’t played enough games at one infield position to qualify for a ranking at any of them, he’s got more games played at third (93) than any other “unqualified” infielder (if you follow me) and his fielding percentage at that position is better than any of the “qualified” third basemen. Nor has he made an error in 20 games at second this season. (He has 4 boo-boos during 28 games at short.) Ten errors in 148 games this year? Not too shabby. Not too shabby at all. Counting against him? Well, I’m sure his team liked having those 83 runs batted in, but his power is just not there, nor is his on-base percentage among the league’s leaders. His stolen bases and caught stealing are almost the same. And his team isn’t a good team. The Pirates suck. But I needed three, so he’s my third.

Now, the American League—much tougher. While the NL has a clear frontrunner and a close second, with everyone else a distant also-ran, the AL has several contenders all neck-and-neck. Derek Jeter is getting good press from even the Boston writers, but I don’t know. Someone more clever than me wrote that if Jeter gets the AL MVP, it’ll be a “lifetime achievement award.” Derek is second in the batting title race this morning, and his fielding this year has been solidly middle-of-the-pack, though of course we all know that every time he plays he leaves it all on the field yadda yadda yadda okay. He mostly seems to be a contender for two reasons: one, his team is good. Very good. Annoyingly, heart-wrendingly, maddeningly good. (Shut up.) And two, he’s the captain of this incredibly good year-after-year team, which has just happened to win the AL East title every year he’s been on it. In other words, he’s got “intangibles.” Some scoff at the idea of intangibles. I don’t. I’m just not sure exactly whether Derek Jeter has them or not. (Also, not that this has to do with anything, but I really do think he’s gay, and that the rotating bevy of babes he trots out like show dogs are just a clever ruse. Come out, Derek! Stop living a lie!) I’m not opposed to the idea of a lifetime achievement MVP, if no one else in the league really deserves it that year. But do they? Let us ponder.

You’ve got the M&Ms on the Twins—Mauer and Morneau (or Joe and Justin, if you prefer—that’s also pretty snappy, but I couldn’t figure out a cute candy nickname with the letter J). In some ways, both are doing so well, and on the same team (a good team and a so-hot-right-now-Hansel team) I feel like they almost cancel each other out. I’m sure the baseball writers of America would like to award the MVP jointly to both of them, but that’s just not how it’s done. Mauer and Morneau are both in the top five in average. Mauer is currently edging out Jeter for the batting title, while Morneau is second (after David Ortiz) in RBI. Mauer may get incredulity points (a catcher as batting champ? a really good catcher as batting champ??) while Morneau is just another (yawwwwn) slugging first baseman. Is that fair? No, but life’s not fair. So between the Twins’ twins, I’d say Mauer has a clear edge over Morneau.

Then you’ve got Johan Santana, the first pitcher to seem like a legit AL MVP candidate since Pedro Martinez’s storied 1999 season. But I can’t give it to Santana, as awesome as he’s been this year. When Pedro was robbed that year, he won 23 games (Santana has 18 this season) and had a lower ERA (2.07 to 2.79) and had 313 strikeouts (Santana has 240). Also I have to say, 1999 was way before the Great Deflation. All kindsa sluggers were injecting all kindsa things. So to me, Pedro’s pitching triple crown is just more impressive than Santana’s. Is it fair to compare anyone to Pedro in 1999? No, it’s completely unjust. And do two wrongs (denying two deserving pitchers the MVP) make a right? No. But this is baseball, sport of caprice. If Pedro can’t have it, NO ONE CAN. Bitterness 1, Johan 0.

Which brings me, of course, to David Ortiz. In my heart of hearts, I want him to have it. I do. I wanted him to have it last year. I think he deserves it, at some point. But given that the Sox were pretty much out of the postseason chase weeks ago, given that he is a DH (and while I’m willing to give it to a DH, I think that, like a pitcher, it’s got to be a standout case of deservedness, where the candidate is head-and-shoulders, Pedro-in-1999 above the rest) and given that the AL field of candidates is so crowded this year, I’m just not sure he will get it. But does he deserve it? Let’s take a moment to reflect in a calm and dispassionate manner. He’s had five walkoff hits this year (15 in his career with Boston), so without him, the Sox would have fallen from contention even sooner. He’s had 52 dingers (breaking a Sox club record that had stood since 1938) and 132 RBI—in fact, his slugging stats this year were so good, that even when he missed a week’s worth of games with an irregular heartbeat, no one else came close to dethroning him. Getting less fanfare than his homers and ribbies, but no less “of considerable use, service, or importance,” he’s first in the AL in walks (yes, even with Manny Ramirez hitting behind him for most of the season), second in slugging, third in runs scored, and third in OPS. Also, he’s David Ortiz. Clubhouse intangibles? Check. Awesome nickname? Check. Even managers of other teams send him thank-you notes for “what he’s done for the game.” Yowza.

But for me, silly dictionary definitions aside, “valuable” just means, “Which of these dudes would you rather have on your team?” Since this is UmpBump and not actually an MVP ballot, I’ll give Morneau and Jeter a tie for third. (What the hell Johan, you can tie for third place, too.) While Jeter’s run has gathered about it the sense of resigned inevitibility of, say, the Kerry nomination, I predict that like that campaign, it will ultimately fall short (I don’t know why this all seems so much like the 2004 election). He’ll get over it, though. Unlike John Kerry, Derek Jeter has his own cologne.

And the runner-up, in case the MVP is not able to fulfill his duties….is Joe Mauer. (He’s young. He’ll win another year.)

Therefore, the winnah and still champeen: David Americo Ortiz! Wow, that’s funny. I realize that no one reading this is surprised that he’s my pick, but I really didn’t think I was going to choose him when I started this post (about thirty seven years ago). Honest!

Oh, and yeah—I stuck to three picks per league because that was the deal, and I’m not an overachieving Harvard scholar.  I did write way too much, but that’s just because I’m a woman, and we talk a lot. Also because I feel like these MVP picks have become a sort of UmpBump arms race—bigger better faster more! Up next: Coley’s film treatment/Russian novel/phone book.

Here is my take on who should be the National League and American League MVPs this year. Unlike Alejandro, I am not trying to guess who will actually be named MVP. Rather, I have tried to decide who actually is the most valuable player in each league. Also, I have offered up my top five picks for each league, because that’s just the generous type of guy I am.

National League

5. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
Has anybody been more valuable to the Houston Astros over the past three years? You could make a case for Roger Clemens, but the fact is that if you took Clemens’ bloated salary and actually signed some offensive players, the Astros probably would have won a World Series by now, instead of losing 2-1 whenever Clemens pitches. But the fact is that over the last three years, whenever Berkman is hurt, the Astros lose, and lose horribly, but as soon as Berkman is back in the lineup, the Astros zoom back into contention. This year, Berkman is rather quietly having the best year of his career. He is third in the National League with 126 runs created, and is on pace to set career highs in home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage.

4. Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cinncinati Reds
The Reds surprised everyone by contending for most of the season, and that fact is almost entirely due to the Wayne Krivskey’s brilliant acquisition of Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena. The Reds have always had tons of offense but have never had any pitching, particularly starting pitching. That is, until Bronson came along and significantly exceeded his career norms to pitch like a Cy Young candidate and give the Reds a legitimate stopper every five days or so. Plus, Bronson quickly became a team leader and showed himself to be an absolute gamer, demanding the ball in the biggest games and volunteering to pitch on three days rest on several occasions. Many people think that the MVP should go to the player who was most valuable to his team, and if that is truly your criterion, it would be very hard not to give the award to Arroyo.

3. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
A 23-year-old rookie, Russell Martin wasn’t called up from the minor leagues until May, but he has been an absolute godsend to the Dodgers, and I can say with absolute certainty that the Dodgers would not be anywhere near contention now if not for his presence. When Martin was called up, Dodgers catchers had only thrown out one runner in about 30 attempts as teams ran wild on 80-year-old Sandy Alomar Jr., and limp-armed Dioner Navarro. But then Martin came on and has thrown out an amazing 32 percent of basestealers. Martin has also been an oldschool workhorse behind the plate, catching 104 out of 124 games since his callup, and once even catching a Sunday day game immediately after catching all 15 innings of an extra-inning Saturday night game. Despite being a complete rookie who came straight from double-A, Martin has also impressed everyone with his veteran-like leadership behind the dish, once telling Derek Lowe he would not leave the fucking mound until Lowe calmed the fuck down, and drawing rave reviews from no less than the great Greg Maddux himself, who says of Martin, “He has very good baseball sense…If you can’t throw to this guy, you can’t throw to anybody.” But perhaps most importantly of all, Martin has been the only real clutch hitter and leader-type on a team full of introverted types like Nomar, Jeff Kent, and J.D. Drew, serving as the voice of the team to the media despite being a rookie and hitting several huge, David-Ortiz-like late inning homers down the stretch. I don’t think anybody but me will even put Martin on their MVP ballot at all, but the numbers to back it up are astonishing. When Martin catches, the Dodgers are 64-42, 22 games over .500. When anyone else catches, the Dodgers are 16-31, 15 games under .500. Sounds like a pretty damn valuable player to me.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Every year, the Cardinals get worse and worse, and yet every year they still win the NL Central, because every year Albert Pujols gets better and better. The guy is an absolute beast, leading the entire major leagues in OPS and slugging. Considering the still ascending trendline in his season stats from year to year, it is truly scary to think that we may not even have seeen what King Albert is truly capable of yet. But he was not the most valuable player in the league this year.

1. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies
I once said that the only way the Phillies could make the playoffs was if Ryan Howard hit 40 home runs in August and September. Howard has done just about everything he could do except that, and the Phillies, once dead in the water, are now only half a game out of the wild card. Looking at the numbers, Ryan Howard leads the major leagues with 144 runs created this year, and a ridiculous 10.00 runs created per 27 outs. This means that a team of nine Ryan Howards would score 10 runs every game. And while I generally don’t put much stock in traditional statistics, sometimes you just have to gawk at them and let your mouth hang open when you see that Howard is on pace for 61 homers and 149 RBI. As much as I was hoping to have an uncoventional pick for NL MVP, I have to go with the crowd on this one, because, let’s face it, is there any player in the entire National League that you would rather have had on your team this year than Ryan Howard? I think the answer is clear.

American League

5. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians
If Travis Hafner hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury that cost him all of September, he would have forced his way into serious contention for the MVP award, despite the fact that the Indians won’t make the postseason. Simply put, when Hafner played this year, he was the most devastating hitter in all of baseball, delivering a staggering 10.31 runs created per 27 outs, puting the NL’s Ryan Howard a distant second among major leaguers with 10.00 RC/27. Even with the injury, Hafner was still a tremendously valuable player for the Indians this year, putting up dazzling numbers of .308/.439/.659 to go along with 46 homers, 100 runs, and 117 RBI - all this in only 5 months of play.

4. Johan Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
It is clear that Johan Santana is the best pitcher on the planet right now, which makes him a pretty darn valuable player. Although his stellar projected numbers of 19-6, 2.79, and 256 Ks certainly bring him to the fringes of the MVP discussion, they are not quite amazing enough to put him over the top. Whereas someone like Pedro Martinez in 1999 clearly deserved to be MVP (even though he was snubbed), the cult of the 100-pitch-count limit has made it increasingly difficult for a pitcher to put up the kind of truly dominant numbers that could lead to MVP consideration. Still, it’s scary to contemplate what kind of numbers Santana would have put up this year if he hadn’t suffered from a case of WBC disease in April, when he started off the year 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.

3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians
Quick, which player is second in the American League to only David Ortiz in runs created this season? You can easily be forgiven if you didn’t know that it was Grady Sizemore before reading this post. Sizemore has had an absolutely amazing season, and is on pace for 136 runs, 55 doubles, 27 home runs, and 75 RBI out of the leadoff spot. Plus, unlike most of the other players on these lists who are first-basemen or DH’s, Sizemore plays one of the all-important “skill positions” up the middle, where he contributes a lot more on the defensive side with his outstanding defense in centerfield. Sizemore has also maximized his value to his team with his durability, playing in every single Indians game so far this season. It is no wonder that the most popular item of apparel among young women this season at Jacobs Field is the jersey that says “Mrs. Sizemore” on the back.

2. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
David Ortiz continues to leave the door open to speculation that he is some sort of freakish alien from outer space, as he finishes off a season even more ridiculous than the last two, leading the American League in runs created, breaking the Red Sox record for homers, and getting ever more implausible game-winning clutch hits. I am not sympathetic at all to the contention that the MVP should never go to a DH, especially when one of those DH’s is the guy who made sabermetricians rethink the idea that there is no such thing as clutch hitting. If Ortiz had somehow lifted the Red Sox to the postseason on the sheer force of his will, I think everyone would have conceded the point, but that has not happened, and Ortiz has slumped a bit down the stretch to the point where it once again enters the conversation that he does not contribute any runs prevented on defense, has Manny Ramirez hitting behind him, and plays in a very hitter friendly park.

1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
To truly measure a player’s value, you have to take into account how easy it would be to replace his production with other players. The fact is, far too many first-basemen win MVP awards, because even though first basemen tend to put up huge offensive numbers, they don’t contribute many runs prevented on defense and it is relatively much easier to find another hard-hitting first-baseman than another, oh I don’t know, say, a hard-hitting catcher. Check this out: Joe Mauer as of this writing has created 100 runs for his team. As a catcher. That is an amazing number for any player, but when you consider all the other value Mauer brings to his team as an outstanding catcher, his offense catapults him into MVP territory. We are talking about a catcher who is batting .345 and slugging .500, and is only 23 years old. Basically, we are seeing a young Mike Piazza offensively, only whereas Piazza was a terrible defensive catcher, Mauer not only contributes on defense, but is in fact a dominant defensive catcher, throwing out nearly 40 percent of would-be basestealers and fielding at a .995 clip. So he’s really more like a combination of the best traits of a young Mike Piazza and a young Ivan Rodriguez. Because he puts up a .950 OPS and dazzling defense at a position that is otherwise thought of as an offensive wasteland, or else a tradeoff between offense or defense, Mauer is literally irreplaceable. If you were going to start an expansion team and you could pick any player to build your team around for the future, you would pretty much have to pick Joe Mauer. But he is already the most valuable player in the American League, even now.