Recently at UmpBump HQ, there’s been a lot of Boston Red Sox talk. While the Yankees have acquired themselves some big-ticket items and the already-strong Rays made a few smart, affordable moves, the BoSox have been raiding the sale rack. And they’re clearly not done yet — this morning’s announcement was the signing of Takashi Saito, and there’s word they’re also focusing on Miguel Montero. We debated a few of their recent moves, for Josh Bard, Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz, and Mr. Jamie Kotsay.

Coley: Now the Red Sox have signed Mark Kotsay. How is this guy a fourth (or even fifth!) outfielder? The Sox have insane depth. It really is like they have money to burn.

Paul: the 4th/5th OF thing isn’t so important as promising these guys PAs. Baldelli is always a game-time decision. Plus, Kotsay spells Youk at first, who will also spell Lowell at 3rd. He’ll get a decent amount of playing time. Plus, it seems that Kotsay is a very good defensive firstbaseman and isn’t terrible offensively. I think it’s a good use of 1.5MM.

Coley: That’s what I mean about Boston’s depth. They’ve got Kotsay who can play outfield and 1B. They’ve got Youk who can play 1B and 3B. They’ve got Lugo who can play SS and 2B and Jed Lowrie, who can play almost any infield position. Regarding at bats, I understand why guys want to play for Boston, but I’m surprised a guy like Kotsay wouldn’t go somewhere where he could get more at bats.

Sarah: “They’ve got Lugo who can play SS and 2B” should read: “They’ve got Lugo who sucks no matter where you put him.” (Readers: take one drink.) Kotsay wanted to go somewhere where he could be a regular, I thought he just couldn’t find a taker.

Coley: I understand that Kotsay couldn’t find a starting job, but there surely are teams where he stood a better chance of getting regular playing time, or “burn” as we call it in the industry. The Giants, for example, need an outfielder and a 1B, and Kotsay plays both. Maybe Kotsay’s counting on Lowell being hurt and Youk playing third?

Sarah: Why not? Lowell was hurt for much of last season. And I think if the choice is limited playing time with either the Giants or the Sox, the answer is pretty clear.

Coley: I don’t think it’s clear. Both the Giants and Sox have a shot at making the playoffs this season. Both play in gorgeous stadiums. And the weather and food is better in San Francisco. Plus, I’m sure Kotsay has roots in the Bay area from his days in Oakland.

Paul: Maybe the Manny situation played a role. If Kotsay thought there was a chance that Manny signs in SF, there goes his “burn”.

Sarah: Those are all good points. But maybe he’s just as happy not to move across the country right now, all things being equal. Or maybe he just really likes red Sox fans. :)

Coley: He doesn’t need the warm embrace of Red Sox nation. He’s got Jamie. And I don’t think there’s much chance Manny signs in SF. They don’t have the money.

Paul: I don’t think that Manny’s going to end up in SF either. But it’s all about creating doubt. Say, the Red Sox played that hand – “Manny might go to San Fran. Stay here and you don’t have to worry about it. But you have to decide now.”

Coley: That’s probably roughly what they told Brad Penny, right before they went out and signed John Smoltz.

Paul: I don’t think the Smoltz situation will hurt Penny. (Beckett-Lester-Smoltz (after he recovers) -Matsuzaka-Penny.) It’ll hurt Wake. Now the whole “bringing Josh Bard back” thing makes sense. I was wondering why the Sox would do that when they shipped Bard out a couple of years ago because he couldn’t catch the knuckler.

Sarah: Another big draw for players (maybe in Penny and Baldelli’s case) is Boston’s medical staff. They are known for having basically the best medical staff in MLB. Plus, being in Boston, they have access to some of the best doctors and hospitals in the world. I think the Sox signed Bard because they realized:

a) he was one of the better options (if not the best option) for a backup catcher
b) they have openly said trading him away was a mistake
c) they are not done trying to get a young catcher to replace Tek as the starting guy

Coley: I’m really interested to see if a Buchholz-Saltalamacchia trade happens. The Bard thing confuses me a little, though. If the Sox do land Salty, I don’t see them starting the season with Salty and Bard as the two catchers. First of all, I don’t think either of them can catch Wake. Second, if the Sox land Salty, I think they’ll pair him with a veteran.

Sarah: They did carry three catchers for pretty much the whole second half last year. Besides, anyone who turns out to be surplus can be traded this summer.

Paul: I don’t understand the three catcher thing for an AL team. You’re already down one bench spot for the DH. Why burn another one with the third catcher? Then again, the Red Sox are far smarter than i am.

Coley: If the Sox did carry a third catcher, and it was a veteran, it would have to be somebody who was just happy to be on the roster. I don’t think Tek would sign on just to mentor the kids. Maybe Sal Fasano is available?

Sarah: At this point, if the Sox do get, say, Teagarden for Buchholz, this is how I see it playing out:

• Tek and Tea split time; Tea catches Wake (if Wake even pitches — he was injured for much of ‘08 too)
• When Tek gets injured, Tea takes over; Bard backs him up (Tek plays hurt all the time — probably hurts more than JD Drew ever does, but is made of pig iron, chewing tobacco, and Clint Eastwood’s spit, so he never says anything  — but with a young, talented catcher on the roster, he wouldn’t have to keep sucking it up all the time).
• If it’s Salty and not Tea, the Sox have Salty take over first base now and then; Wakefield retires rather than force Bard, Salty, or Tek to catch him, because Wake always puts the team first. He’s just that kind of guy.

Nick: If the Sox trade for a catcher, they definitely won’t resign Varitek. If the trade happens, one of Bard or the new guy will have to catch Wakefield.

Sarah: Well, yes. That is the unspoken “nuclear option.” Though part of the reason no other team wants to sign him is that they’ll have to give up a draft pick to do so (because the Sox offered him arb and he declined) and so far, no one has wanted to do that. So even if the Sox do get a young catcher in addition to Bard, Varitek still might end up in the Sal Fasano posish of “just wanting to be on the roster.”

What do you guys think? Sox fans, how do you feel about this bevy of small moves compared to New York’s two giant signings? Non-Sox fans, would you want to see your team take a chance on Varitek? What about the Saito move? And we barely touched on Smoltz! Let’s keep the convo going in the comments.

Were you shocked that Smoltz took the Red Sox' better offer?

When Braves President Terry McGuirk claimed Rafael Furcal had backed out of an agreement to sign with Atlanta, we were all appalled.

How could he?

Furcal and his agents denied committing to Atlanta, but who are you going to believe, the selfish ballplayer with the DUI conviction and his sleazy agents, or the model organization that won 14 consecutive division titles and managed to make J.D. Drew healthy and Gary Sheffield tolerable?

Obviously, we all believed the Braves.

But today Atlanta is once again crying foul, and this time I’m not buying it.

Here’s what McGuirk had to say about John Smoltz’s decision to sign a one-year contract with the Red Sox:

“John is a great guy. He follows his own head, and I just don’t know what’s going on with him right now,” McGuirk said, according to the report. “We’ve offered less of a guarantee, but we’ve offered a substantial guarantee. Coming off an injury like this, we feel like it’s the right thing that we should be doing.

“We’ve offered him a package that would get him in the $10 million range, if he were to pitch a full season and pitch well,” McGuirk said, according to the AJC. “For him to walk away from that and to go to another place, I’m just shocked and surprised.

Here’s the facts. Smoltz made $14MM in 2008. This offseason, the Braves declined an option to keep Smoltz in Atlanta in 2009. Then Atlanta strung Smoltz along for weeks before finally offering him a contract for far less guaranteed money than other teams were offering — and far, far less than he made last year.

Now, I’m not saying the Braves should have made Smoltz a bigger offer. Frankly, I think they were wise not to throw too much cash at a 42 year-old pitcher coming off shoulder surgery. But to claim you’re “shocked and surprised”? First of all, that’s redundant. Second of all, you can’t be serious. The Red Sox offered Smoltz nearly twice as much guaranteed money and a chance to pitch in maybe the best baseball city in America for a team that has an excellent chance of going to the postseason. And you’re surprised he’s going to Boston?

The Braves’ front office used to be the gold standard. But times have clearly changed.

Up until recently, the consensus among higher baseball minds (read: Neyer and Stark ) was that the Braves were primed for a surge up the standings and that the team’s ho-hum record was mostly a product of bad luck. How else do you explain a 2-15 record in one-run games?

Here’s what Stark had to say about the Braves’ chances of making a run:

They have a better run differential (plus-48) than six of the eight teams that would make the playoffs if the postseason started today. They rank first or second in the league in batting average, ERA and rotation ERA. And the biggest reason for their .500-ish record (28-25) is their 2-14 record in one-run games. But that’s a record that figures to improve dramatically once they add John Smoltz , Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez to their bullpen.

Frankly, as a Phillies fan, I feared the Braves as well. If they were a good team despite injuries to Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton, Soriano and Gonzalez, there was no telling how good they’d be in July and August with a healthy pitching staff. Especially if Chipper keeps hitting .400. And especially if Mark Teixeira goes on his usual second-half tear.

But this week the tide is turning. No longer is there talk of a Braves resurgence. Now those same experts are singing a new refrain: the Braves are done.

Neyer has changed his tune:

The Braves are finished. Tim Hudson’s a good pitcher but he can’t pitch any better than he’s pitched. Chipper Jones is a great hitter, but can’t hit as well as he’s been hitting. Even as the Braves’ luck evens out, as it almost has to, it’s hard to see them doing any better than they’re already doing.

The fans, too, feel the Braves are lost. Just yesterday I got an email from infrequent Umpbump commenter Zvee, entitled "Holy Balls," that lamented the state of the Atlanta team. And Zvee isn’t the only Braves fan questioning the team these days. AJC blogger Chop Chick thinks the team has lost its chemistry:

Maybe I’m making too much out of it, but if they’ve lost the camaraderie and support that makes them a team, they’re in serious trouble. And while I can stomach losing if the guys hang together and keep laying it out on the field, it’s getting difficult to keep watching when it looks like they’re putting up minimal resistance. Those of us in Atlanta may soon envy those of you outside Peachtree TV range.

So what’s changed? How have the Braves gone from "poised for a breakout" to "poised for a bellyflop"?

Quite simply, it’s Smoltz. Or, rather, the loss of Smoltz. He was the glue. He was the guy who was going to make this team’s starting staff great. Then he was the guy who was going to make the bullpen a strength. Now he’s neither.

Here’s what Chipper Jones had to say about the loss of Smoltz:

"Coming into this season, I said we wouldn’t have a chance of competing in this division if he wasn’t starting for us every fifth day," Chipper Jones said. "We’ve managed to keep our heads above water without him. But now, to not have him at all this season is just devastating, flat-out devastating."

When you’ve lost six games in a row, 17 of 20 road games, have a 3-18 record in one-run games, when four of your top five starting pitchers are hurt, your bullpen is a patchwork and your best hitter is feeling "devestated" it’s hard not to think the season is slipping away.

Also, it’s not just that the Braves are losing. It’s how they’re losing. Kelly Johnson drops an infield pop-up with two outs in the ninth, allowing the Phillies to tie the game (and eventually win). Jeff Ridgeway hits a batter with the bases loaded in the 11th inning, giving the Cubs the win and the series sweep.

Things are bad in Atlanta.

And it’s getting harder to find people who think the situation will improve anytime soon.

Oh my God, it’s June. And it’s gorgeous outside. And you’re stuck inside! The cubicle walls are closing in on you! You struggle to breathe! Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaah! Don’t despair, gentle reader—just catch hold of this lifeline of links:

The Hardball Times posted a great piece on Johnny Cueto using PITCHf/x data. For those of you involved in fantasy baseball, it’s a must-read. For those of you interested in one of the most intriguing rookie pitchers to come up in a while, it’s also a must-read.

Royals Review has a fantabulous ode to light-hitting first basemen. Just a taste:

He wasn’t strong like an ox

And a pretty sweet mullet

Now THAT is must-read, my children.

Futility Infielder has an interview with 91-year old Marvin Miller, a former head of the players’ union, who respectfully requests he not be elected into the Hall of Fame, thankyouverymuch.

Stet Sports Blog thinks Ozzie Guillen should be fired.

Someone recommended I read this post at Sports Law Blog about media ethics. Frankly, I found the post a bit disappointing. It concludes, “I suggest the players unions and the leagues find creative ways to ‘deal’ with the media on terms that are mutually beneficial to both the participants and the media — in other words, cooperation and access in exchange for accuracy and privacy.” First, that bargain actually strikes me as the sleazy exchange that too often takes place in pro sports already. And second, privacy and accuracy don’t always go hand in hand. Spoken like someone with more perspective as a player or a lawyer (aha!), rather than someone who has actually tried to practice journalism.

John Smoltz reinvents himself yet again—and Shysterball can’t watch.

Another fun Slate article about baseball cards—specifically, the 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. Upper Deck card and how it compares (or doesn’t) to the T206 Honus Wagner.

The Loss Column prays for the new Orioles uniforms to stay classy, San Diego.

Razzball has an enlightening fantasy baseball glossary.

And Babes Love Baseball notes that in his last start, the Unit has tied the Rocket on the all-time strikeouts list. Who needs HGH when you have….mullet power!

I always like to read new things. Send me recommendations!

Is John Smoltz the greatest pitcher of all time?

I only ask because that is apparently what Mr. Mark Bowman of mlb.com thinks. Or his editor. Or whoever it was that picked the headline for this article, entitled “Smoltz latest, greatest to reach 3,000 Ks.”

Do they even have editors over there? Because if whoever it was actually believes that John Smoltz is the greatest pitcher to ever reach 3,000 strikeouts, then they are the only one in the world who thinks that.

Even Smoltz’s own mother wouldn’t suggest that he is the greatest pitcher on this list:

Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Bert Blyleven, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, Walter Johnson, Phil Niekro, Greg Maddux, Ferguson Jenkins, Bob Gibson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz.

In fact, it may even be possible to argue that John Smoltz is actually the worst pitcher on that list, but he certainly isn’t the best one, because that is basically a list of the greatest pitchers of all time. So in no way whatsoever is Smoltz the “greatest” pitcher to join the list.

So what really is going on with that title? I think what has happened here is another example of how these people get so up to their neck in sports clichés that they forget that what they are writing is actually English words that actually mean things, and simply apply these catchphrases where ever they please, much the same way Jackson Pollock applied paint to canvas, although probably with even less forethought.

I’m sure the person who came up with that headline probably just thought it had a nice “ring” to it, without even considering that it was actually words which would be making the insane claim that Smoltz was the greatest pitcher on the list above. But still, my gods. Learn to speak English – it’s your own native language (I hope).

Also, the subtitle of that article is pretty funny too – “Veteran no longer walking in shadows of Maddux, Glavine.” Um, okaaaay. Greg Maddux: – 349 wins, 4 Cy Youngs, 2 20-win seasons, so good he can be caught with your eyes closed. Tom Glavine: 303 wins, 2 Cy Youngs, 5 20-win seasons, hot baseball wife.

John Smoltz? 210 wins, 1 20-win season, 1 Cy Young. I think it is fair to say he is still chilling pretty deep in the shade of Maddux and Glavine. I mean Glavine has ninety-three more wins than Smoltz does. Even if you give him back the three years he was a closer, was he really going to average 31 wins per season?

Also, everyone is talking like Smoltz is a surefire Hall of Famer now, and he probably is, but if Smoltz makes the Hall for getting 3,000 strikeouts, than Bert Blyleven, who is number 5 on the list above, needs to have been inducted several years ago.

John Smoltz is probably going to record his 3,000th strikeout today and Atlanta Magazine used the occasion to ask the question, “which Braves players will someday make the Hall of Fame?”

Atlanta Magazine thought just about all of the Braves from the last two decades (except for Andruw) should make the Hall, so there may have been a little home town bias at play.

We’ve gone and complicated the discussion a bit, including both manager Bobby Cox and general manager Jon Schuerholz in our list of possible inductees.

What do you think? Who belongs? Who falls short?

more at twiigs.com…

This year, the Cy Young debate is hardly a debate at all. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Jake Peavy will take home the hardware for the NL, while C.C. Sabathia will be the AL pitcher clearing off his mantel. I suppose I can agree with that. Thus, this post will be dedicated to acknowledging this year’s also-rans.

In the NL, Peavy’s 19-6 record, 223.1 IP, 240 K’s, and 2.54 ERA are hot indeed. But Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks made the same number of starts (34) and pitched more innings (236.1) leading to a few more decisions (18-10). Of course, his ERA is higher (3.01) and his strikeouts were fewer (194). I feel I also ought to mention Brad Penny of the Dodgers and John Smoltz of the Braves. Neither was good enough to be the NL Cy this year, of course, but they still put up good numbers. In fact, their numbers were eerily similar to one another’s. Except, of course, for Smoltz’s better strikeout rate. And we throw a tiny scrap in the direction of Aaron Harang of Cincinnati, for being the Chien-Ming Wang of the NL. Only, because he doesn’t pitch for the Yankees, his name hasn’t been bandied about at all. I’m sure he feels, if not harangued (ha) then at least a bit forlorn.

In the AL, Cleveland’s Sabathia has been a beast. 241 innings pitched! 34 starts! 209 strikeouts! Only 37 walks! And his 3.21 ERA ain’t too shabby either. Plus, I’m sure Cleveland is very happy with the 19-7 record. And he seems determined to single-handedly revive the lost art of the complete game. Of course, he wasn’t exactly masterful against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, but he was good enough to get by. But our sympathies should really extend to Fausto Carmona. If he hadn’t been so overshadowed by the No. 1 starter on his own team, we might be talking about him for the Cy. His ERA is an even better 3.06, and though he pitched fewer innings (215 in 32 starts) and didn’t strike out nearly as many (137) or walk so few (61), his record is nearly identical at 19-8. Then there’s Josh Beckett of the Red Sox, the only 20-game winner during the regular season. No sign of fatigue, either, as he threw a complete-game shutout against the Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS. His 194 K’s and 40 walks in 200.2 innings (in 30 starts) aren’t anything to sneeze at, and his ERA of 3.27 is perfectly decent. But even the nice, round number of 20 wins isn’t quite enough to dislodge C.C. from his throne. Finally, John Lackey has barely gotten a mention, even though he has the best ERA in the league (3.01) and a comparable record (19-9). His 224 IP in 33 starts are better than the other also-rans, and his 179 K’s and 52 walks are certainly comparable. Yet his candidacy barely got any airtime. No, people wanted to talk about Chien-Ming Wang instead. While Wang’s season was impressive, his numbers definitely put him at the bottom of the pack (see Aaron Harang, above). And we curtly nod in the direction of Scott Kazmir, who was the AL strikeout leader this season, but walked 89 batters and who couldn’t do better than 13-9 because of Tampa Bay’s atrocious bullpen. We also acknowledge Eric Bedard, whose monstrous 10.93 K/9 rate would surely have gotten him better than a 13-5 record were he not toiling away for the Orioles.

Remember, also-rans: there’s always next year.

Bobby Cox tied the record for most all-time ejections on Sunday. He said it was embarrassing.

Chipper Jones and John Smoltz got into a public spat this weekend over whether or not Jones was nursing his wounds. The two veteran players said they were embarrassed their argument got played out in the media.

Today, Atlanta Journal-Constitution writer Jeff Schultz says the Braves should be embarrassed, but not over Cox’s record, or Jones’ and Smoltz’s fight:

Fact is, the Braves have several reasons to be embarrassed. But look on the field, look in the standings. This should be way down the list.

Schultz is referring to the fact that the Braves are 3-7 in their last ten games. They have lost five in a row and have scored one run in those five games. One. Stinking. Run.

Who could have predicted that the Braves’ offense would be this bad? Umpbump could have — and did. Harken back to January, when we said:

If the Braves are going to score any runs, they will need Edgar Renteria to once again defy father time, Chipper Jones to stay healthy, Andruw Jones to have a huge contract year and Jeff Francouer to finally become the all-star they believe he is.

Don’t hold your breath.

Remember, Umpbumper Nick was particularly critical of the Braves for trading 1B Adam LaRoche for Pirates reliever Mike Gonzalez:

For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the Braves made this LaRoache-Gonzalez trade. How can you trade a player who OPS’d over 1.000 for a relief pitcher? They must have really been fed up with his ADD or something. What a terrible trade.

In retrospect, of course, Nick looks like a genius. Mike Gonzalez is out for the season. And even if he were healthy,  he wouldn’t help solve the Braves’ offensive woes.

True, LaRoche has been a disappointment for Pittsburgh this year, but just about every player who leaves the Braves struggles the next season (see J.D. Drew, Kevin Millwood, Greg Maddux, etc.). He’ll bounce back.

Regardless of LaRoche’s 2007 struggles, you don’t trade a proven hitter for a relief pitcher. Ever. Especially when that reliever is pegged to be a set-up guy. Especially, when your team is short on sluggers. Any half-decent fantasy GM knows that.

So what was Scheurholz thinking?

Maybe Nick was right. Maybe, minus Leo Mazzone, the Braves just aren’t that good. Maybe Scheurholz really is “one of the least creative GMs in the game, and now that Leo is gone he is getting exposed for the fraud that he is.”

All I know is Bobby Cox is on the verge of retirement. Andruw Jones is hitting below the Mendoza line. Chipper and Smoltz are sniping at each other in the press. And everyday the Braves’ era of good feelings seems more and more like a distant memory.