Up until recently, the consensus among higher baseball minds (read: Neyer and Stark ) was that the Braves were primed for a surge up the standings and that the team’s ho-hum record was mostly a product of bad luck. How else do you explain a 2-15 record in one-run games?

Here’s what Stark had to say about the Braves’ chances of making a run:

They have a better run differential (plus-48) than six of the eight teams that would make the playoffs if the postseason started today. They rank first or second in the league in batting average, ERA and rotation ERA. And the biggest reason for their .500-ish record (28-25) is their 2-14 record in one-run games. But that’s a record that figures to improve dramatically once they add John Smoltz , Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez to their bullpen.

Frankly, as a Phillies fan, I feared the Braves as well. If they were a good team despite injuries to Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton, Soriano and Gonzalez, there was no telling how good they’d be in July and August with a healthy pitching staff. Especially if Chipper keeps hitting .400. And especially if Mark Teixeira goes on his usual second-half tear.

But this week the tide is turning. No longer is there talk of a Braves resurgence. Now those same experts are singing a new refrain: the Braves are done.

Neyer has changed his tune:

The Braves are finished. Tim Hudson’s a good pitcher but he can’t pitch any better than he’s pitched. Chipper Jones is a great hitter, but can’t hit as well as he’s been hitting. Even as the Braves’ luck evens out, as it almost has to, it’s hard to see them doing any better than they’re already doing.

The fans, too, feel the Braves are lost. Just yesterday I got an email from infrequent Umpbump commenter Zvee, entitled "Holy Balls," that lamented the state of the Atlanta team. And Zvee isn’t the only Braves fan questioning the team these days. AJC blogger Chop Chick thinks the team has lost its chemistry:

Maybe I’m making too much out of it, but if they’ve lost the camaraderie and support that makes them a team, they’re in serious trouble. And while I can stomach losing if the guys hang together and keep laying it out on the field, it’s getting difficult to keep watching when it looks like they’re putting up minimal resistance. Those of us in Atlanta may soon envy those of you outside Peachtree TV range.

So what’s changed? How have the Braves gone from "poised for a breakout" to "poised for a bellyflop"?

Quite simply, it’s Smoltz. Or, rather, the loss of Smoltz. He was the glue. He was the guy who was going to make this team’s starting staff great. Then he was the guy who was going to make the bullpen a strength. Now he’s neither.

Here’s what Chipper Jones had to say about the loss of Smoltz:

"Coming into this season, I said we wouldn’t have a chance of competing in this division if he wasn’t starting for us every fifth day," Chipper Jones said. "We’ve managed to keep our heads above water without him. But now, to not have him at all this season is just devastating, flat-out devastating."

When you’ve lost six games in a row, 17 of 20 road games, have a 3-18 record in one-run games, when four of your top five starting pitchers are hurt, your bullpen is a patchwork and your best hitter is feeling "devestated" it’s hard not to think the season is slipping away.

Also, it’s not just that the Braves are losing. It’s how they’re losing. Kelly Johnson drops an infield pop-up with two outs in the ninth, allowing the Phillies to tie the game (and eventually win). Jeff Ridgeway hits a batter with the bases loaded in the 11th inning, giving the Cubs the win and the series sweep.

Things are bad in Atlanta.

And it’s getting harder to find people who think the situation will improve anytime soon.

Oh my God, it’s June. And it’s gorgeous outside. And you’re stuck inside! The cubicle walls are closing in on you! You struggle to breathe! Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaah! Don’t despair, gentle reader—just catch hold of this lifeline of links:

The Hardball Times posted a great piece on Johnny Cueto using PITCHf/x data. For those of you involved in fantasy baseball, it’s a must-read. For those of you interested in one of the most intriguing rookie pitchers to come up in a while, it’s also a must-read.

Royals Review has a fantabulous ode to light-hitting first basemen. Just a taste:

He wasn’t strong like an ox
Or fast like a bullet
But he had a nice swing
And a pretty sweet mullet

Now THAT is must-read, my children.

Futility Infielder has an interview with 91-year old Marvin Miller, a former head of the players’ union, who respectfully requests he not be elected into the Hall of Fame, thankyouverymuch.

Stet Sports Blog thinks Ozzie Guillen should be fired.

Someone recommended I read this post at Sports Law Blog about media ethics. Frankly, I found the post a bit disappointing. It concludes, “I suggest the players unions and the leagues find creative ways to ‘deal’ with the media on terms that are mutually beneficial to both the participants and the media — in other words, cooperation and access in exchange for accuracy and privacy.” First, that bargain actually strikes me as the sleazy exchange that too often takes place in pro sports already. And second, privacy and accuracy don’t always go hand in hand. Spoken like someone with more perspective as a player or a lawyer (aha!), rather than someone who has actually tried to practice journalism.

John Smoltz reinvents himself yet again—and Shysterball can’t watch.

Another fun Slate article about baseball cards—specifically, the 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. Upper Deck card and how it compares (or doesn’t) to the T206 Honus Wagner.

The Loss Column prays for the new Orioles uniforms to stay classy, San Diego.

Razzball has an enlightening fantasy baseball glossary.

And Babes Love Baseball notes that in his last start, the Unit has tied the Rocket on the all-time strikeouts list. Who needs HGH when you have….mullet power!

I always like to read new things. Send me recommendations!

Is John Smoltz the greatest pitcher of all time?

I only ask because that is apparently what Mr. Mark Bowman of mlb.com thinks. Or his editor. Or whoever it was that picked the headline for this article, entitled “Smoltz latest, greatest to reach 3,000 Ks.”

Do they even have editors over there? Because if whoever it was actually believes that John Smoltz is the greatest pitcher to ever reach 3,000 strikeouts, then they are the only one in the world who thinks that.

Even Smoltz’s own mother wouldn’t suggest that he is the greatest pitcher on this list:

Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Bert Blyleven, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, Walter Johnson, Phil Niekro, Greg Maddux, Ferguson Jenkins, Bob Gibson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz.

In fact, it may even be possible to argue that John Smoltz is actually the worst pitcher on that list, but he certainly isn’t the best one, because that is basically a list of the greatest pitchers of all time. So in no way whatsoever is Smoltz the “greatest” pitcher to join the list.

So what really is going on with that title? I think what has happened here is another example of how these people get so up to their neck in sports clichés that they forget that what they are writing is actually English words that actually mean things, and simply apply these catchphrases where ever they please, much the same way Jackson Pollock applied paint to canvas, although probably with even less forethought.

I’m sure the person who came up with that headline probably just thought it had a nice “ring” to it, without even considering that it was actually words which would be making the insane claim that Smoltz was the greatest pitcher on the list above. But still, my gods. Learn to speak English - it’s your own native language (I hope).

Also, the subtitle of that article is pretty funny too - “Veteran no longer walking in shadows of Maddux, Glavine.” Um, okaaaay. Greg Maddux: - 349 wins, 4 Cy Youngs, 2 20-win seasons, so good he can be caught with your eyes closed. Tom Glavine: 303 wins, 2 Cy Youngs, 5 20-win seasons, hot baseball wife.

John Smoltz? 210 wins, 1 20-win season, 1 Cy Young. I think it is fair to say he is still chilling pretty deep in the shade of Maddux and Glavine. I mean Glavine has ninety-three more wins than Smoltz does. Even if you give him back the three years he was a closer, was he really going to average 31 wins per season?

Also, everyone is talking like Smoltz is a surefire Hall of Famer now, and he probably is, but if Smoltz makes the Hall for getting 3,000 strikeouts, than Bert Blyleven, who is number 5 on the list above, needs to have been inducted several years ago.

John Smoltz is probably going to record his 3,000th strikeout today and Atlanta Magazine used the occasion to ask the question, “which Braves players will someday make the Hall of Fame?”

Atlanta Magazine thought just about all of the Braves from the last two decades (except for Andruw) should make the Hall, so there may have been a little home town bias at play.

We’ve gone and complicated the discussion a bit, including both manager Bobby Cox and general manager Jon Schuerholz in our list of possible inductees.

What do you think? Who belongs? Who falls short?

more at twiigs.com…

This year, the Cy Young debate is hardly a debate at all. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Jake Peavy will take home the hardware for the NL, while C.C. Sabathia will be the AL pitcher clearing off his mantel. I suppose I can agree with that. Thus, this post will be dedicated to acknowledging this year’s also-rans.

In the NL, Peavy’s 19-6 record, 223.1 IP, 240 K’s, and 2.54 ERA are hot indeed. But Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks made the same number of starts (34) and pitched more innings (236.1) leading to a few more decisions (18-10). Of course, his ERA is higher (3.01) and his strikeouts were fewer (194). I feel I also ought to mention Brad Penny of the Dodgers and John Smoltz of the Braves. Neither was good enough to be the NL Cy this year, of course, but they still put up good numbers. In fact, their numbers were eerily similar to one another’s. Except, of course, for Smoltz’s better strikeout rate. And we throw a tiny scrap in the direction of Aaron Harang of Cincinnati, for being the Chien-Ming Wang of the NL. Only, because he doesn’t pitch for the Yankees, his name hasn’t been bandied about at all. I’m sure he feels, if not harangued (ha) then at least a bit forlorn.

In the AL, Cleveland’s Sabathia has been a beast. 241 innings pitched! 34 starts! 209 strikeouts! Only 37 walks! And his 3.21 ERA ain’t too shabby either. Plus, I’m sure Cleveland is very happy with the 19-7 record. And he seems determined to single-handedly revive the lost art of the complete game. Of course, he wasn’t exactly masterful against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, but he was good enough to get by. But our sympathies should really extend to Fausto Carmona. If he hadn’t been so overshadowed by the No. 1 starter on his own team, we might be talking about him for the Cy. His ERA is an even better 3.06, and though he pitched fewer innings (215 in 32 starts) and didn’t strike out nearly as many (137) or walk so few (61), his record is nearly identical at 19-8. Then there’s Josh Beckett of the Red Sox, the only 20-game winner during the regular season. No sign of fatigue, either, as he threw a complete-game shutout against the Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS. His 194 K’s and 40 walks in 200.2 innings (in 30 starts) aren’t anything to sneeze at, and his ERA of 3.27 is perfectly decent. But even the nice, round number of 20 wins isn’t quite enough to dislodge C.C. from his throne. Finally, John Lackey has barely gotten a mention, even though he has the best ERA in the league (3.01) and a comparable record (19-9). His 224 IP in 33 starts are better than the other also-rans, and his 179 K’s and 52 walks are certainly comparable. Yet his candidacy barely got any airtime. No, people wanted to talk about Chien-Ming Wang instead. While Wang’s season was impressive, his numbers definitely put him at the bottom of the pack (see Aaron Harang, above). And we curtly nod in the direction of Scott Kazmir, who was the AL strikeout leader this season, but walked 89 batters and who couldn’t do better than 13-9 because of Tampa Bay’s atrocious bullpen. We also acknowledge Eric Bedard, whose monstrous 10.93 K/9 rate would surely have gotten him better than a 13-5 record were he not toiling away for the Orioles.

Remember, also-rans: there’s always next year.

Bobby Cox tied the record for most all-time ejections on Sunday. He said it was embarrassing.

Chipper Jones and John Smoltz got into a public spat this weekend over whether or not Jones was nursing his wounds. The two veteran players said they were embarrassed their argument got played out in the media.

Today, Atlanta Journal-Constitution writer Jeff Schultz says the Braves should be embarrassed, but not over Cox’s record, or Jones’ and Smoltz’s fight:

Fact is, the Braves have several reasons to be embarrassed. But look on the field, look in the standings. This should be way down the list.

Schultz is referring to the fact that the Braves are 3-7 in their last ten games. They have lost five in a row and have scored one run in those five games. One. Stinking. Run.

Who could have predicted that the Braves’ offense would be this bad? Umpbump could have — and did. Harken back to January, when we said:

If the Braves are going to score any runs, they will need Edgar Renteria to once again defy father time, Chipper Jones to stay healthy, Andruw Jones to have a huge contract year and Jeff Francouer to finally become the all-star they believe he is.

Don’t hold your breath.

Remember, Umpbumper Nick was particularly critical of the Braves for trading 1B Adam LaRoche for Pirates reliever Mike Gonzalez:

For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the Braves made this LaRoache-Gonzalez trade. How can you trade a player who OPS’d over 1.000 for a relief pitcher? They must have really been fed up with his ADD or something. What a terrible trade.

In retrospect, of course, Nick looks like a genius. Mike Gonzalez is out for the season. And even if he were healthy,  he wouldn’t help solve the Braves’ offensive woes.

True, LaRoche has been a disappointment for Pittsburgh this year, but just about every player who leaves the Braves struggles the next season (see J.D. Drew, Kevin Millwood, Greg Maddux, etc.). He’ll bounce back.
Regardless of LaRoche’s 2007 struggles, you don’t trade a proven hitter for a relief pitcher. Ever. Especially when that reliever is pegged to be a set-up guy. Especially, when your team is short on sluggers. Any half-decent fantasy GM knows that.

So what was Scheurholz thinking?

Maybe Nick was right. Maybe, minus Leo Mazzone, the Braves just aren’t that good. Maybe Scheurholz really is “one of the least creative GMs in the game, and now that Leo is gone he is getting exposed for the fraud that he is.”

All I know is Bobby Cox is on the verge of retirement. Andruw Jones is hitting below the Mendoza line. Chipper and Smoltz are sniping at each other in the press. And everyday the Braves’ era of good feelings seems more and more like a distant memory.

The Savannah Morning news ran a story this morning with the headline, “Opportunity knocks on Braves door for next ten days.” That’s because, beginning today, the Braves play ten games in a row against teams with losing records.

The Braves kick off their run against the Cubs. Actually, they’re playing right now. And it’s a real dog fight (sans Michael Vick).

The AJC ran a story suggesting that the Braves should be looking forward to the Cubs series, since the Cubs are going through some tough times now. But the truth is, the Cubs should be glad to be playing the Braves this weekend. John Smoltz is going to miss his next start with a finger injury and Chipper Jones just went on the DL with hurt hands. For those of you keeping score at home, that means the Bravos will be without their best starter, best hitter and best reliever, since Mike Gonzalez is out for the year following elbow surgery.

These are tough times, indeed, for Atlanta. And unfortunately, there is no help on the way. This morning, AJC columnist Mark Bradley reports that Braves president Terry McGuirk says the team’s new owners, Liberty Media, don’t plan to open their wallets to pay for any expensive players the team might acquire in a trade.

The best line from Bradley’s column was this:

Besides, [McGuirk] sees nothing unduly ominous about the doings of May:“If not for two injuries [Mike Hampton and Lance Cormier], we’d probably be in first place by a couple of games.”

Really, Terry? First of all, Lance Cormier is hardly the second coming of Greg Maddux. So if you’re telling me he’s the difference between winning and losing 7 games, then you’re on crack. And as for Hampton, did anybody really seriously expect that he was going to pitch? I mean, I know folks around Atlanta were hopeful, but I don’t think anybody was putting any money on it.

I’m sorry, but if the Braves fall out of contention and try to blame it on Hampton and Cormier, that’s sad. Blame it on Andruw! He’s been a complete turd.

The Phillies have lost the top two members of what was already a paper thin bullpen, plus Ryan Howard missed two weeks with what was vaguely called a quad injury. The Mets have been without El Duque and Moises Alou. These things happen. Cry me a river, McGuirk.

Brad Penny on the Block: According to the Rocky Mountain News, “The Dodgers figure to make a major move during spring training, using right-hander Brad Penny as the trade bait.” Penny won 16 games last season and it’s hard to imagine that the Dodgers would consider parting with a pitcher of his talent. Then again, he is a huge jerk.

Penny is one of those pitchers who has never quite seemed to live up to his potential. Last year he started the all-star game, but then fell apart in the second half of the season.

Still, here’s a stat that caught my eye: According to the LA Times, “Penny threw more fastballs 95 mph or faster in 2006 than all other National League starters combined.” Wow. I mean, that’s impressive, right?

Smoltz Overwhelmed by Support: There’s good news if you’re John Smoltz. The bullpen that blew six of your leads last season has been overhauled. But there’s bad news, too. You’re getting a divorce, after 16 years of marriage.

Smoltz won’t give any reasons for his divorce, and the Atlanta media is treating the story with kid gloves. But we at Umpbump have been around long enough (almost one year!) to know that where there’s smoke, there’s fire.  This is the Braves. There’s got to be a Hooters waitress involved somehow.

Liberty, Sweet Liberty: Oh, and while we’re on the subject of the Braves, the team was sold earlier this week, from Time Warner to Liberty Media, pending league approval, of course. The deal amounts to a stock swap and Liberty figures to hang on to the team only long enough to take advantage of a special tax break. Then the company will turn around and sell the team again.

Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Mark Bradley, who as far as we know still has a job, writes this week that the braves’ next owner needs to be a savior, a la Ted Turner. Somebody who will grab the team by the balls and shake things up. From the AJC:

I figure the Braves are no worse, and also no better, today than they were the last few seasons. Time Warner didn’t concern itself about baseball, and Liberty Media won’t, either. Liberty Media cares about its tax break. Liberty Media is a caretaker that won’t care much one way or another what happens at Turner Field.

Bottom line: After waiting forever to see this sale consummated, we’ll all get to twiddle our thumbs while another transaction is brokered a year or two from now. And yes, you’re absolutely right: It gets harder and harder to care about professional sports with every passing day.

I think Bradley ought to be careful what he wishes for. After all, the best owners are the ones who just write the checks and get out of the way, right? Arthur Blank, who owns the Atlanta Falcons, tried to buy the Braves recently. Blank is notoriously hands-on and so far has had zero success with the Atlanta football team. So why let him ruin the baseball team, too?

It’s true that the Braves’ payroll has flatlined under Time Warner and that has hindered the team in its attempts to keep pace with the free-spending Mets and Phillies. But, on the other hand, Time Warner understood the need to let GM John Scheurholz and manager Bobby Cox do their jobs free of interference. And Liberty will, too. Blank? Don’t count on it.

Check out this ridiculous footage of the new MLB 2K7 being played on an XBox 360:

[google 850578450278680841 nolink]

I don’t know how often you all watch John Smoltz, but that really, *really* looks like John Smoltz’s delivery. Plus, they even captured Andruw’s half-hearted jog-and-catch in center!

In my last entry, I listed five guys who would be on the DL before the All-Star break. Since the article was posted, three players have already been stricken by the injury bug. Gary Sheffield and Kerry Wood have both been placed on the 15-day DL and Barry Bonds has missed five straight games with a sore left side. In this column, I have listed five more players that present intermediate injury risks to your fantasy team. Proceed at your own risk.

J.D. DREW

If you were to start a Fantasy Injury League, Drew would be a top-three pick. J.D. has missed 27 games or more in six of his seven full professional seasons. On average, Drew misses approximately a month per season and consistently breaks fantasy owners’ hearts with lingering hamstring pulls. It’s only a matter of time until Drew blows a gasket again this season and hampers your fantasy team’s stretch run. He’s been posting great numbers this season, so try to work a trade with another owner and get market value from a less-risky outfielder.

JAKE PEAVY
The damage may have already been done to Jake Peavy. By looking at his numbers this season, one could assume that Peavy is pitching hurt and just doesn’t want to admit it. At 4-7 with a 4.96 ERA, Peavy is nowhere near his form from the 2004 and 2005 campaigns in which he posted a combined record of 28-13 with an ERA hovering around 2.50. It’s possible that Peavy is pitching through pain to help his Padres stay in the NL West race – an unselfish but extremely dangerous notion. Be weary of Peavy’s progress and check-up on his health regularly.

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