WPA is the stat that old baseball men have always wanted.

If you believe in Wins and RBIs, if you believe that certain pitchers can “pitch to the score” and certain batters are simply “clutch” and can suddenly step up their game when it’s all on the line while somehow sucking the rest of the time, than WPA is the stat for you.

The problem that so many people have with stats like Wins and RBI is not so much with what they show, as indeed, they only show what they were designed to show, and do so quite well. Rather, the problem people have is with what other people think these stats show, which is actually pretty far from what they tell us.  Namely, which player really did the most to help his team win games.

But if your goal is to find out exactly which player did the most to help his team win games, than WPA is the perfect stat for you.

Actually, it couldn’t be more elegant. WPA, which stands for “Win Probability Added,” is derived by looking at the current game situation – what inning it is, what the score is, how many outs there are, and how many men are on base – and determining what percentage chance each team has of winning the ballgame in that situation, based on a computer crunching the numbers of all previous baseball games for which complete information is available.

In any given game, the two teams each have about a 50 percent chance of winning at the start of the game (slightly more for the home team, and slightly less for the visitors). With each outcome, whether an out or a base safely reached, one team’s chance of winning increases slightly, and the other’s decreases by the exact same amount, always adding up to 100 percent.

What WPA does, is it awards each batter and each pitcher a certain fraction of a win for each outcome they are involved in, in every game they play in.  For example, if a batter gets a single and it increases his teams chance of winning by 2 percent, he is awarded 0.02 of WPA, and the pitcher is docked negative 0.02 of a win. Naturally, getting big hits in crucial situations, or (for a pitcher) getting tough outs with the game on the line, is worth much more of a win than getting hits or outs in blowouts. Over the course of the season, all players’ totals are added to determin exactly how many wins they were actually worth to their team that season. That’s WPA.

WPA differs from WAR in that WAR attempts to assess the overall value a player has provided without reference to game situation.  Basically, WAR assumes that a player has little or control over exactly when he gets hits or outs, and thus attempts to assess true skill level, while factoring out random luck.  WPA, on the other hand, doesn’t care about true skill level at all.  It only cares about how much a player actually helped his team win, based on context. In other words, how “clutch” players were.

Which is why WPA is so perfect for the old school writers and baseball men. Because it is measuring *exactly* what people always thought they were trying to measure with Wins and RBI: how much you helped your team win.

So if we think about the traditional main criteria used by old-school baseball writers to award the two major awards, MVP and Cy Young, which are of course Wins (followed, to a lesser extent, by ERA) for pitchers and RBI for batters (followed, to a lesser extent, by homers), we see that WPA is actually the best way to determine these awards, if these people actually want to measure what they say they want to measure.

Because after all, if you are a crusty old baseball writer, you don’t really care that 50 homers in 1996 was not indicative of Brady Anderson’s “true” skill level – you just know he had a heck of a year.

So, looking at the WPA leaderboards for each league in this particular season (minimum 4.00 WPA), we get the following:

National League
Albert Pujols – 7.22
Prince Fielder – 7.06
Ryan Howard – 5.38
Chris Carpenter – 5.08
Joey Votto – 4.76
Chase Utley – 4.43
Tim Lincecum – 4.27
Andre Ethier – 4.04

American League
Zack Greinke – 4.81
Justin Verlander – 4.31
Johnny Damon – 4.27
Jason Bay – 4.04

No big surprises in the National League, where if you went by WPA, you’d wind up with Albert Pujols as MVP and Chris Carpenter as Cy Young, both of those players being the odds-on favorites to win if the season were to end today.

But the American League is a different story, as WPA shows how Wins and RBI fail to tell the whole story of who happened to be the most clutch. Zack Greinke is first overall in WPA, despite being behind the pack in Wins, and Johnny Damon is your leader among position players in WPA.

Indeed, WPA suggests that Zack Greinke was actually the most valuable player in the American League in this particular season, and probably should be the MVP, but if we adhere to the traditional rules that pitchers should not be MVPs and the MVP has to come from a playoff-bound team, than by all rights Johnny Damon ought to be your American League MVP frontrunner.

But in any case, Zack Greinke is far and away your AL Cy Young this year. Not only is he leading the league in WPA, showing his “clutchness,” but he’s also leading all AL players in WAR, showing his “true” skill level!

The rate at which home runs have been flying out of the new Yankee Stadium has been a hot topic since the first weeks of the season, but up to now the statheads have been urging caution and calm. “Small sample size” they have cried.

But as we close in on the two month mark, it is becoming increasingly more clear that New Yankee Stadium is one of the greatest home run parks of all time.

Indeed, in only its first season, the stadium is already on pace to smash the mark for most home runs hit at a ballpark in a single season.  The current record was set at pre-humidor Coors Field in 1999, when 303 homers were bashed (making Coors only stadium ever to surpass 300 thus far). But with 82 homers hit at Yankee Stadium already in only 22 games, the stadium is on pace for a ridiculous 317 homers this year.

Averaged out, an astounding 3.91 homers per game have been hit in the Bronx so far this season. By comparison, 1.98 homers were hit per game at Old Yankee Stadium last season, which is right around the typical American League average of about 2.00 per game.

What went wrong

So what exactly is wrong with New Yankee Stadium?  Well, recent wind studies have demonstrated that the new ballpark is about 20% more likely than the old one on any given day to have a wind blowing out to the outfield of 10 mph or more, with the likelihood increasing even further in the spring and fall. Given that a tail wind of 10 miles per hour will cause a typical borderline homerun ball to travel about 25 feet further, a significant assist that is only increased as the windspeed goes up.

Just watching the highlights of the homers hit out of New Yankee Stadium so far, this wind assist is plain to see. Anything hit fairly high in the air takes off once it gets into the wind, especially to right field. Guys are hitting home runs one handed, or even when they get jammed or get too far under the ball.  And when players actually do hit the ball right on the screws, they are hitting monstrous bombs.

Only adding to the homer woes, the stadium designers pulled a fast one with the dimensions in right field.  Although the most often cited dimensions, such as down the foul lines and to straightaway center are the same as the old park, thus preserving “Yankee tradition,” the designers flattened out the sharp dogleg in the right field wall, meaning that in some places, the right field wall is as much as nine feet closer to home plate in the new stadium.

This is pretty huge, and very significant when the old stadium was already legendary for having one of the shortest right field porches in the entire game (allegedly designed for the Babe).  Already this season somewhere in the region of ten homers have been hit out to right field that would not have gone out in the old stadium, just judging by distance alone, before wind is even taken into account.

What to do now

It’s obviously a little too late to go back and fix a $1.5 billion stadium.  And I’m actually of the opinion that having different stadiums that play differently is one of baseball’s charms, unlike football or basketball where the dimensions are always identical.

But what the Yankees do need to do is build a team that will be best suited to their stadium. And they need to start now.  Here are my recommendations:

Read the rest of this entry »

I do try to control my raging Boston homer impulses here on UmpBump, but there’s only so much a girl can do. I’ve just got all these BoSox-centered thoughts rattling around in the old bean, and I’ve got let some of them out! But if you stick it out for a few paragraphs, there will be some assorted MLB-wide random thoughts towards the end.

Curt Schilling may be an opinionated guy, but he’s not afraid to admit when he’s wrong. He played catch yesterday, after what he described as his longest period without throwing a ball since he was five years old. And he admitted that the course of rehab recommended by the Red Sox doctors—which he fought tooth and nail—is working. And the weight bonus has been dropped from his contract. Bartolo Colon is pitching for Pawtucket on Saturday. And yesterday, Boston’s other old man, knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, threw 8 innings of shut-out ball in Detroit. Good times for Boston’s venerable hurlers.

Gordon Edes (still at the Boston Globe, at least for the time being) had a quick observation about Julio Lugo:

Julio Lugo began the day ranked at the bottom of all defensive categories for big-league shortstops. He had the most errors (9), the lowest fielding percentage (.919), was last in assists per nine innings (2.36), and last in range factor (3.49). The rest of the Sox infield? Mike Lowell, Sean Casey, and Dustin Pedroia have one error apiece, Kevin Youkilis none. Most of Lugo’s errors have come on routine plays, an indictment of his fundamental skills more than his athleticism…

This jibes with what I’ve been observing. Lugo gets to the ball and then bobbles it, or lets it go under his glove, or even snags it and then throws it away. It just seems like he’s not focused, as if he’s thinking too many steps ahead instead—he looks like he’s taking his eye off the ball when it’s coming to him and then getting rid of it before he gets his feet under him. Basic stuff. Lugo has called himself an aggressive shortstop and has admitted that sometimes, his enthusiasm results in mistakes. I wish he’d get a little more Zen-master-like focus.

Anyway, compare Edes’ observation, above, with this sentence from Nick Cafardo, the man who took over the Sunday Notes column from him:

Is there a shortstop alive with more range than the Angels’ Erick Aybar (please, no “range factor” stats)?

Ugh. For the record, Erick Aybar is leading MLB shortstops in range factor this season. He’s 13th in fielding percentage. Or, if you’re Nick Cafardo, in “‘fielding percentage’ stats.” Cafardo also interviewed Johnny Damon, who sounds like a bit of an ass:

You’re 34 years old with more than 2,100 hits. Do you ever think about playing a long time and getting 3,000 hits and possibly making it to the Hall of Fame?

JD: “I’m starting to think about it. I never thought about it because it’s a team game and there are so many pitches I took to try to work the pitch count to make it easier on people like [David] Ortiz, Mike Sweeney, and Manny [Ramírez]. I mean, what if I just swung and got the hits and all the times I played when I shouldn’t have to make sure other guys stay fresh? If you think about that over seven or eight years, how many would I have had? I’m starting to think about it more.”

Apparently, Johnny Damon could have had a lot more hits by now, if he hadn’t been trying to selflessly help the team. (Whaaa?)

At a recent game in the Fens, we were sitting right behind the Boston bullpen. We watched Hideki Okajima rub the parrot for good luck before the game. We watched Julian Tavarez flirting with the girls seated next to us. Billy the bullpen cop saw an adorable little boy walk up to the metal fencing and peek down into the pen; Billy got Jonathan Papelbon to walk over to the fence and say hi. The little boy’s eyes widened to the size of catchers’ mitts. We saw the guys trying to throw pumpkin seeds into a plastic cup. (Only one seed went in, by my count, but some unseen hand was throwing those seeds with a lot of great, biting movement on ‘em. It would really dive in against a righthanded hitter, with good downward break as well. Wonder who that was?)

Boston’s now enjoying a 4-game lead for first place in the AL East. The Rays are 4 back, the struggling Yanks and the Jays a game behind them, and the Orioles are back in the cellar where they belong.

Other MLB randomness:

Have you ever noticed how Placido Polanco has a head like a midget? It’s a midget-shaped head on a regular-sized body. Strange.

Barry Zito will return to the starting rotation without making any appearances out of the bullpen. This seems less like a return to sanity on the part of San Francisco management than like they utterly and completely lack for any sort of plan, at all. But then, we knew that.

The players’ association is investigating suspicions of collusion regarding unsigned veterans like Kenny Lofton and Barry Bonds. But old is old and indicted is indicted, no?

MLB looked into the blow-up doll incident in the White Sox clubhouse and decided it was a “team issue.” GM Ken Williams has been assured by Ozzie Guillen that it won’t happen again. Yet the skipper has told the press he sees nothing offensive, immature, or otherwise pathetic with having lewdly positioned blow-up dolls in the clubhouse because it’s a clubhouse, and what happens in the clubhouse should stay in the clubhouse because it’s the clubhouse, goddammit, and if grown men want to play with dolls in their clubhouse than that’s their clubhouse-given right! Clubhouse. (Note to self: rename office cubicle “the clubhouse;” purchase opium; hire harem boys; acquire a quantity of mead, one of those roasted pigs with the apple stuck in its mouth, and a cake; send Outlook invites for Friday afternoon orgy.) Now, it should be noted that there was, at one point, a naked blow-up doll in my freshman year dorm room. I have no idea how it got there, but one day I woke up and saw it, lo and behold, perched atop my roommate’s wardrobe. And a couple of months later, it vanished. I offer this anecdote just by way of saying, random and tasteless blow-up dolls could happen to anyone, anywhere, at any time.

The other day I got to asking myself, what would have happened if the Red Sox had somehow matched the Yankees’ offer and resigned Johnny Damon in the fall of 2005? So I did a little thought experiment and here is what I came up with…

I am assuming the the Red Sox would not have been willing to increase payroll above what they eventually did pay in 2006 simply to accomodate Damon’s salary. This means that the Sox would not have been able to take on the salaries of Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, whose combined 2006 salaries with the Sox are exactly equal to Damon’s 2006 salary with the Yankees. Instead, having traded Edgar Renteria to the Braves, the Red Sox would have started Hanley Ramirez and Andy Marte on the left side of the infield. They would have also had to keep Bronson Arroyo to pitch in the rotation, and would have had Anibel Sanchez to pitch in the rotation when the injuries started piling up at the end of 2006.

Without any need for Coco Crisp in centerfield and an opening at third base, the Sox would never have traded away Marte or acquired Josh Bard. Instead, they would have had Kelly Shoppach as their backup catcher. This means that they would not have panicked and traded away Cla Meredith to get back Doug Mirabelli.

There is the famous fable of the butterfly that flaps its wings in China and causes a hurricane to strike in the Carribean, or somesuch. Well, if the Red Sox had decided to do whatever it took to resign Johnny Damon, and then had the vision to give Ramirez and Marte a chance instead of trading away for injury and suckiness-prone Josh Beckett, their projected 2007 lineup and rotation would look like this:

CF Johnny Damon

SS Hanley Ramirez

DH David Ortiz

LF Manny Ramirez

RF JD Drew

1B Kevin Youkilis

2B Julio Lugo

C Jason Varitek

3B Andy Marte

P Curt Schilling

P Bronson Arroyo

P Daisuke Matsuzaka

P Jonathan Papelbon

P Anibel Sanchez/Tim Wakefield

What the Red Sox would have, then, is a team that would be significantly better than the one which they are going to be putting on the field in 2007. Instead of marginal prospect Dustin Pedroia batting ninth, the Red Sox would have super prospect Andy Marte, and mediocre Coco Crisp and Mike Lowell would be replaced by legitimate stars Johnny Damon and Hanley Ramirez. The rotation would also be significantly stronger, with Arroyo replacing Beckett, and Sanchez allowing Wakefield to move back into the sixth man/swing role. As an added bonus, the Sox would still have extremely useful pieces in Kelly Shoppach and Cla Meredith on the bench and in the bullpen. And most amazing of all, the Sox payroll would be several million dollars less than what it is going to be in 2007.

Plus, the Red Sox would almost certainly have done better in 2006 with Sanchez ready to step into the rotation when Wakefield went down, and Shoppach available to step in when Varitek got hurt.

Overall, I am quite pleased with this little thought experiment. My only real regret is that I wasn’t able to magically wish away JD Drew and Julio Lugo in the process. Alas, even if the Sox had re-signed Damon, they still would have seen a need to sign Drew and Lugo…

Curt Schilling plans on pitching in 2008, he just doesn’t know where. But there’s one thing he’s sure of: he won’t pull a Johnny Damon and sign with the Yankees.

Mariano Rivera is going to pitch next year and he wants to stay with the Yankees. For now, though, all he knows is he won’t pitch for the Red Sox.

It seems Yankees and Red Sox players are tripping over themselves in their eagerness to negotiate new contracts. None of them are above threatening to leave their respective teams, but all of them can agree: signing with the enemy is a no-no.

Which brings us back to Johnny “Judas” Damon. It seems everyone’s in agreement: Damon is an idiot. His teammates defend him, but then confess that they could never do what he did.

So what does Damon think? He still can’t believe the Sox didn’t pony up. From the New York Daily News:

“I knew they had the money back when they were negotiating with me; they just took their stance,” Damon said. “I was probably the only guy who never begged them to sign me.”

…

“They had a chance for a month and a half after the season, but when they don’t talk to you or offer you a contract in that time, it tells you they don’t want you,” Damon said. “That’s fine with me. I wasn’t going to be in a situation where they didn’t want me. I think they just looked at it as, ‘Johnny loves it here.’ It was great, but this suits me a lot better. I’m a happier person because of it.

For such a happy person, Damon sure does sound bitter, doesn’t he?

So it seems the love affair between baseball jocks and video games doesn’t stop at the clubhouse. I mean, if it’s going keep you on the sidelines, might as well make some money off of it, right?

Well, what about those that do it for fun?

We can now thank Commissioner Damon, as in, Johnny Damon, for his irrefutable dedication to the growing sport of Video Gaming.

On a serious note, Damon is starting a Professional Baseball Video Game League in which he’ll get a chance to tussle online with his fellow peers. Of course, we all know they’ll all be engaging in a friendly game of…Microsoft’s Project Gotham Racing 3 for Xbox 360…

The first season’s roster also includes former Cub Corey Patterson and Rodrigo Lopez of the Orioles, Craig Hansen and Julian Tavarez of the Red Sox, Matt Holliday and Willy Taveras of the Rockies, Prince Fielder of the Brewers, Josh Barfield of the Indians, Derek Lowe of the Dodgers, Seth McClung of the Devil Rays, Mike Pelfrey of the Mets, Luke Hochevar of the Royals and Dallas McPherson of the Angels.

“The league is bringing together two of my biggest passions — baseball and video games — in a way that neither baseball fans nor video gamers have seen before,” Damon said in a statement.

What’s with these ball players and video games? Doesn’t Damon have better things to do in his off-time?

[via Joystiq]