90 games into the season, the Florida Marlins remain in the hunt for the NL East crown, and they have done so largely on their ability to knock the crap out of the baseball. They’re currently in fourth in slugging percentage among all 30 teams with a .443 and are actually tops in home runs with a total of 128, which is all the more impressive once you account for the fact that Dolphin Stadium is quite the pitcher’s park. Their middle infielders, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, are probably the most offensively potent 2B-SS combo in the game so far this year (apologies to Philly). First baseman Mike Jacobs has a Dave Kingman-esque .249/.288/.513 line (I think I mean that as a compliment) third baseman Jorge Cantu has come back from the dead to hit 16 HRs to go along with 51 RBIs, and with Josh Willingham missing 2 whole months of action, center fielder Cody Ross has performed admirably to help fill in that gap in production.

And I’m still predicting that before the season is done, the Florida Marlins will find themselves in fourth place in the National League East. I can feel the hate coming from Miami already (do we have Marlins fans as readers?). Allow me to explain.

The Marlins have scored an average of 4.9 runs per game, which is quite good. But it simply isn’t good enough to mask the 5.2 runs they’ve been allowing. If you allow more runs than you score, you lose. That’s just how baseball works. Moreover, the NL East has been downright terrible in games decided by a run. Collectively, they are 55-81 in these situations. In fact, Florida is the only team above .500 in one-run games. So I expect Philadelphia, Atlanta, and New York to rectify this before the season’s done (although Atlanta’s been beating the odds on this one for quite some time now) which is bad news for Florida. The Phillies and Braves have been underplaying their Pythagorean scores while Florida is overplaying theirs.

In addition, I simply don’t think that Dan Uggla in particular will be able to continue hitting for so much power. In 2006 and 2007, Uggla slugged .480 and .479 respectively. This season, he’s at .620, which is an incredible leap, made all the more peculiar by the fact that his line drive rate has been decreasing over this time and he’s not hitting more fly balls either. How you could possibly increase your slugging percentage so dramatically while essentially hitting more ground balls is simply beyond me. His BABiP is an unsustainable .341, and the fact that 23.2% of the flyballs he’s hit has cleared the outfield wall is also too high to be believable for a guy like Uggla, who should be around 13%. To a lesser extent, the same could be said of Mike Jacobs as well. Could it be that these guys are just improving as they enter their primes? Absolutely and I’m not ruling that out by any means. But doubting such severe increases in production like Uggla’s has served me well in the past. He’s good. Just not this good.

However, this is still a team that has Hanley Ramirez, who I think will be the consensus “Best Player in Baseball” within 2-3 years. You can’t ask for a better building block than this guy. And I’m also a fan of Andrew Miller, who might never be an ace, but should be one of the catalysts if/when the Marlins become championship contenders once again. But it’s not going to be this year.

So I hope that the Marlins realize this and not become buyers in July. In fact, by selling some of their pieces (like the resurgent Jorge Cantu at peak value), they’d probably be better off. With Ramirez, Uggla, Willingham, Miller, and the returning Josh Johnson, the Marlins still have some great talent. But I don’t think they’re ready to stay with the Phillies, Braves and Mets just yet.

- What They Need Index -

Eric Gagne Dodgers reliever Eric Gagne allowed one hit in a scoreless ninth inning Monday to earn a save in his second and final rehab assignment for Triple-A Las Vegas. Gagne got former major leaguer Curtis Pride to ground out to shortstop to end the 8-6 victory.

Gagne said he is scheduled to return to the Dodgers on Thursday, when they return home to play Philadelphia. The former All-Star has looked great during his rehab stint and is primed to regain his role as the Dodgers’ closer upon his return to the majors. It’s likely that it’s too late to pry Gagne away from your fantasy brethren, but it’s worth a shot. Try packaging two good relievers and see if you can catch someone off guard.

Mark Prior Pitching at the Cubs’ Class A affiliate, Prior struggled to get out of the second inning of his rehab appearance on Monday. The 25-year old righty threw 44 pitches in two innings, giving up four hits and three runs. He’s been on the disabled list all season as he works his way back from a sore shoulder.

With the Cubs mired in a season-long slump, don’t expect Prior to be rushed back into the rotation. The Cubs plan to start Prior in atleast two more rehab games before assessing his situation. Prior is a top-notch starter that is worth acquiring if you have trade bait and can afford to stow him away until he reemerges in the majors in mid-June.

Jorge Cantu Devil Rays 2B Jorge Cantu starts a week-long rehab assignment Monday at Double-A Montgomery and is expected back from a broken left foot around June 5.

Despite putting up remarkable numbers, Cantu is still an under-valued fantasy commodity. With eligibility at 2b and 3b, Cantu is coming off of a season in which he led the Devil Rays in homers, RBI’s, hits and doubles. Try to trade for Jorge before he regains full strength and starts mashing again at the Trop.

Carl Pavano Carl Pavano had a bone chip removed from his right elbow by Dr. James Andrews last Thursday, according to the New York Post.

Run for your lives! Anytime you hear the words “Dr. James Andrews” in regard to one of your pitchers, you might as well grab a drink, toast to better times, grin and bear it. Pavano is still hopeful to return before the end of 2006, but at this point, the injury-plagued Pavano holds little to no fantasy value. Stash him only if you have ample room on your DL.

Rich Harden Oakland ace Rich Harden could return to the Oakland rotation as early as this upcoming Sunday. He has been out of action and on the disabled list since late April due to a strained back muscle.

Now may be the perfect time to try to acquire Harden. With a lengthy injury to begin the 2006 campaign, fantasy owners may be growing restless with his prolonged abscence and may not have heard the good news about his return. Offer a respectable trade for Harden in an attempt to make an antsy Harden owner bite without thinking things through.

Stay tuned for my next article in which I’ll tell you which players WILL be injured by the end of this month.