Rookies. So young and innocent. So naive and trusting. So….so….skinny.

Which of these tender young morsels showed the most promise this year? Which of them is most likely to end up, 15 years down the line, with bum knees, a bad back, an HGH-bloated jaw, a contract his team wants to dump, tobacco-stained teeth, kids who barely know his name, two ex-wives who both hate him, tens of millions of dollars, three SI covers, and a venereal disease he picked up on a rehab assignment in Florida after his second wrist surgery?

In the National League, there are many good candidates. I have to start by mentioning Cla Meredith. When the Sox dumped Meredith (sending him to the Padres with Josh Bard in order to reacquire knuckler-catching-specialist Doug Mirabelli) Boston was elated. This trade ended up being a bad move for a number of reasons (not least because the Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield spent a good chunk of time on the DL, rendering Mirabelli’s defensive skills somewhat extraneous, and because Jason Varitek, playing hurt and then missing a lot of time, had a lousy year—and looking back on it, wouldn’t you have rather just stuck with Bard (.333) no matter how many passed balls he had?) but a big reason is that Cla recovered from his previous struggles to pitch the way Boston had initially hoped he would. In 50 and two-thirds innings of relief, he struck out 37, walked just 6, and racked up 5 wins (and only one loss). How did he do it? Well, his 1.07 ERA and .170 BAA didn’t hurt. And looking back at the Red Sox’ season (sorry, I can’t help it) given that two of their biggest problems were filling the spot behind the dish and bridging the gap between the starting pitcher and Jonathan Papelbon (a role formerly filled by Mike Timlin, the ghost of whom was not enough this year), if the Red Sox had kept ahold of Bard and Meredith, we could be gearing up for the playoffs tonight instead of sitting at home watching Netflix movies. So for his great performance in relief this year, Meredith is my No. 3 ROY pick.

Hanley Ramirez is even more impressive. He’s got good offensive numbers for a shortstop (.292/59 RBI/17 HR, along with 46 doubles and 11 triples). But what impresses me even more is that he racked up almost the same number of walks (56) and stolen bases (51). So why am I not giving him my ROY award? Too many errors. A whopping 26, putting him third-from-last among qualified NL shortstops. Yikes. (In fairness, his range factor puts him in the top half of that group, but still.) So Hanley is my runner-up.

For my top NL ROY pick, I’m going to go with Ryan Zimmerman. Yes, he’s got those 110 RBIs and 20 homers (both nice, round numbers). But he also has 47 doubles and 61 walks. Good show, kid. Yes, he made 15 errors on the season down there at the hot corner, but in the NL that’s good enough to put him in a three-way tie for best fielding percentage. It’s a tough call, but Zimmerman edges out Ramirez based on defense.

Now for the AL. Francisco Liriano was quite the stud for the Twins in the first half, but his arm gave out down the stretch. I know that’s not uncommon for a rookie pitcher, but still. This is the bigs, and ROY is a big-league award. No doubt Liriano will come back next year, stronger and tougher, and be as lights-out as before. His 12-3 record and 2.16 ERA are smoking, and even though his teammates have apparently nicknamed him “Franchise,” he didn’t go the full stretch and so I just can’t give him my ROY.

The same stands, sadly, for Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon. Pap won over Beantown with his fire, consistency, and jaw-dropping ERA (which never rose above 1.00 all season). He even gave rise to the best new turn-of-phrase in sportswriting this year. In short, he’s the hotness. And maybe he would have pitched through his transient subluxation had the Sox stayed in contention. But as it is, they shut him down about a month ago.

There’s a case to be made for Nick Markakis, the bedimpled Orioles rightfielder, who’s already batting third in the birds’ lineup. Unlike some of the other newbs we’ve been discussing here on UmpBump, this is a guy who has only gotten better as the season has gone on, hitting .365 in the second half. If I were a GM and I had to, say, find a promising young rightfielder to replace an old, injury-prone free-agent rightfielder, he’d be right at the top of my list (not that the O’s are going to let him get away). But ROY winner? Not this year. Not even with my weakness for all things tall, dark, and handsome. Sorry, Dimples.

I’ll give Pap my third place vote over Liriano (but just by a hair) and Markakis my number two slot, but first place has to go to—surprise surprise—Justin Verlander. Much of the Tigers’ surprising success this year can be laid at his feet (17 wins and a solid 3.63 ERA). And unlike the other young guns on the list, he hasn’t flagged as the season’s gone on. That makes him my AL Rookie of the Year.

Last week, we here at umpbump gave you our hard-hitting MVP picks, so this week, we’ve decided to unveil our picks for NL and AL Rookie of the Year picks. I’ll get things started today, with picks from Alejandro, Coley, and Sarah to follow over the weekend.

National League

3. Ryan Zimmerman (.289/.354/.475, 20 HR, 109 RBI)
2. Hanley Ramirez (.292/.353/.481, 17 HR, 51 SB)
1. Josh Willingham (.277/.358/.494, 25 HR, 78 RBI)

I’m as surprised as anyone that I ended up picking two Florida Marlins as my top two picks. The Rookie of the Year race in the NL this year was bursting with potential contenders, and it was up and down all year, and I really thought someone like Andre Either, Prince Fielder, or Ryan Zimmerman would come out on top, but now here we are with four games left to play, and it seems clear that Josh Willingham was the best young rookie on the Senior Circuit in 2006.

True, Zimmerman’s RBI total is impressive, but as we know, RBI is the mainstream stat least indicative of a player’s actual performance. Meanwhile, Willingham bested Zimmerman in both OBP and SLG, and hit five more homers than Zimmerman in more than 100 fewer at bats.

Hanley Ramirez proved he is a complete player this season, showing the ability to hit for average and power, and steal loads of bases, but Ramirez’s totals were bolstered by the numerous extra at bats he had as a leadoff batter. Meanwhile, Willingham showed the killer combination of both power and patience at the plate, leading all batting-title qualified rookies in OPS and establishing himself as a legitimate heart-of-the-order threat down the stretch for the Marlins.

American League

3. Kenji Johjima (.291/.334/.455, 18 HR, 76 RBI)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (35 SV, 0.92 ERA, 75K/68.1IP)
1. Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63 ERA, 186 IP)

Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis and Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima put up remarkably similar numbers in this year, but Johjima gets the nod for third place because he plays catcher.

Jonathan Papelbon was an absolute revelation as the closer for the Red Sox in the first half of the season, but faded down the stretch and ultimately had to be shelved due to an impingement in his shoulder. Still, his first half performance was so dazzling, it was enough to earn him second place on my ROY ballot.

The clear winner in the American League has to be Justin Verlander. Not only did he provide nearly 200 IP and 17 wins to his team, but he also served as de facto staff ace for much of the year when Kenny Rogers was struggling, and helped lead the Tigers to their first pennant since god knows when. Basically he pitched like a Cy Young candidate in his rookie season.

It’s too bad Francisco Liriano got hurt and the Angels ridiculously sent Jared Weaver down to the minors for five starts. Otherwise, the AL top three would have almost certainly been all starting pitchers.