The San Deigo Padres currently have the worst record in all of baseball, at 38-62. And yet as of this writing they haven’t made any significant moves toward rebuilding the team, and are still acting as if they are trying to contend.

It’s time to get a move on that rebuilding, as the Padres are not going to be contending any time soon if they stand pat.

What the Padres need to do is build a team that can play well in their ballpark. This means building teams the way the Dodgers used to do back when Dodger Stadium was the game’s greatest pitcher’s park.

The Padres should focus on defense. They especially need to find outfielders who can cover the big gaps in the outfield at Petco, and especially in center field. Losing Mike Cameron after last season was a huge blow to the pitching staff.

On offense the Padres should focus on acquiring or developing hitters with skills that won’t be as affected by the big outfield. Hitters who draw a lot of walks, hit line drives, and hopefully have some speed. The Padres should not pay an extra premium to get hitters who hit a lot of home runs in other parks, because a lot of that value will be lost at Petco.

Similarly, when it comes to pitching the Padres should look for pitchers with who don’t walk a lot of guys. There is an opportunity here, in that the Padres can look for flyball pitchers who put up lousy numbers in other parks and can be had for cheap, but who will have a chance to succeed in cavernous Petco Park.

To acquire more of these types of players, the Padres should be prepared to trade most of their big-name veterans, as this year’s team is going nowhere but down any time soon.

In particular, the Padres should look to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff, Khalil Greene, Trevor Hoffman, Randy Wolf, and Tadahito Iguchi. These are all fairly big-name guys who other teams will want, but who are not useful to the Padres. Kouzmanoff and Greene have terrible on-base percentages, and thus have no business playing in a pitcher’s park like Petco, and Kouzmanoff is forcing up-and-coming prospect Chase Headley to left field, where his bat is not as valuable. Meanwhile, Hoffman, Wolf, and Iguchi are big-namers who are set to be free agents, so there is no need to keep them on a last-place team.

Update: The Padres have reportedly traded Randy Wolf to the Astros (!)

- What They Need Index -

Now that the 2007 season has come to a close, it’s time to parse the 2007 rookie class and separate the wheat from the chaff, the best from the rest, the cookies…from the crumbs.

American League

Cookie: Dustin Pedroia

My picking “Pedro” (as the guys on the team have christened him) should come as no surprise to regular readers of UmpBump. Quite simply, no other rookie has grown up as fast or as completely as the little man with the big swing. After a brutal first month in the majors, Dustin was hitting .182 at the end of April, and the ravening hordes of Red Sox Nation were calling for blood. Worse, veteran players on other teams were audibly laughing at him and his body-wringing swing during his at-bats.

They’re not laughing now. Pedroia finished the season with the best batting average of AL rookies (.317), the best OPS (.822), and the most runs scored (88). Though he only has seven stolen bases, he has the best stolen base percentage (0.88). And he’s one of the hardest batters to strike out in the league (just 42 K’s in 581 plate appearances, for a beautiful walk-to-strikeout rate of 1.12) . Such a rate of contact without a lot of power (just 8 homers on the season) must mean he grounds into a lot of double plays, right? Actually, no—Pedroia has done that just 8 times this season.

Defensively, Pedroia has been solid but not spectacular. This is an area where I believe his diminutive stature has hurt him—many a time I’ve seen him dive after a gapper, his 5′7″ frame fully extended, only to watch the ball sail just an inch past his wee arm. Nevertheless, he plays an acrobatic second base, epitomized by the amazing grab he made to save fellow rookie Clay Buchholz’s no-hitter.

In addition to his maturity on the field, Pedroia has also shown maturity off the field: after a brief hubbub early in the season when Alex Rodriguez through a multimilliondollar elbow at him to try and break up a double play, Pedroia’s mild comment (calling it “cheap” but also “no big deal”) got all kinds of airtime. And young Dustin promptly learned a valuable lesson: zip it.

For being the rookie to play the most like a big-leaguer, Dustin Pedroia deserves to be the American League Rookie of the Year.

Crumbs: Delmon Young, Reggie Willits, Josh Fields, Brian Bannister, Jeremy Guthrie.

Not that I think these guys are crummy players—just that it’s the crumbs they’ll get stuck with when Pedroia gets the cookie. Delmon Young has gotten a lot of attention as a potential ROY for knocking in 93 RBI, no mean feat (it doesn’t hurt that his average, which was .288 overall, jumps to .347 with runners in scoring position). However, the Tampa Bay left fielder has a hideous VORP (just 5.7, compared with Pedroia’s 36.0). And while Young gets props for playing in all 162 games this year, he instantly loses those props for failing to run out a grounder and being benched by his manager with just one game left to play. I know it’s hard to run out every ball when it’s the end of September and you play for the Devil Rays, but this is just the kind of immature incident that has gotten Young in trouble in the past. It’s not big-league. It’s bush-league.

Willits, left-fielder for the Angels, gets an honorable mention for having the best eye of the rookie class. Though it’s hard to strike out Pedroia, it’s hard not to walk Willits: a .391 OBP, 69 walks, and 4.44 pitches per plate appearance. Once he gets on, pitchers had better keep their eye on him, too—he had 27 steals this year. But he has absolutely no power—just 20 doubles and no homers.

Josh Fields should be an interesting guy to watch develop. The White Sox third baseman only played 100 games this year, which hurts his ROY status in my mind, but he’s an interesting combination of above-average defensive ability and power hitting. His average was just .244, yet he hit 23 homers and has a .480 slugging percentage. If he can learn some plate discipline (he had 125 strikeouts in those 100 games—yikes) he could be a real threat for Chicago.

As for the pitchers, Guthrie and Bannister, it’s hard to say what these kids would have done if they’d been on better teams (as opposed to the Orioles and the Royals, respectively). Bannister may not strike out a lot of people, but he doesn’t walk a lot of folks either. He was consistently good all year long, but especially effective June through August. Guthrie was a bit more uneven, but finished the year with comparable numbers. I don’t think either of them is the rookie of the year, but I’d sure like to have them on my team.

National League

Cookie: Troy Tulowitzki

The Rockies shortstop has really turned it on in the past week to help his team get to the playoffs, with a grand slam here, a triple there, a couple of doubles over there. But that’s nothing new for the newbie—he’s been playing well all season long. His .287 average, 24 homers, and 98 RBI make him a great offensive shortstop. Lucky for the Rockies, then, that they sacrifice absolutely nothing on defense: Tulowitzki has been the best defensive shortstop in the league this year.

Crumbs: Ryan Braun, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Hunter Pence, James Loney.

Ryan Braun, third baseman for the Brewers, has a drool-worthy amount of offense: .324 average, .634 slugging percentage, 1.004 OPS, and 34 homers. Those homers look even more amazing when you realize he played in just 113 games. Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, I feel bad about giving awards to guys who don’t play on an everyday basis, or close to it. I also feel bad handing out cookies to guys who are the worst at their positions, defensively. And Braun has been, hands down, the worst third baseman in the league this year. Sorry, Ryan. Even your husky VORP (57.2) isn’t enough to save you.

What about Hunter Pence, you ask? The Astros centerfielder put up some very good numbers—.322 average, 69 RBI, 17 homers, and nine triples in 108 games. He uses his speed well in the outfield, where he’s above average defensively, but I feel obliged to note that he has a harmful .69 stolen base percentage. Nevertheless, If he’d played in more games, he could have given Tulowitzki some real competition.

I also considered Kevin Kouzmanoff, the third baseman for the Padres. Alas, poor Kevin! He loses another heartbreaker to his Colorado foe. His offensive numbers are juuust a touch softer than Troy’s across the board. Plus, he’s right down there with Braun as a craptastic corner glove. Nevertheless, he was the only rookie besides Tulowitzki and Diamondbacks CF Chris “.237″ Young to play in more than 140 games, and that, plus his decent numbers, is enough to earn our consideration.

Finally, I feel obliged to give an honorary crumb to James Loney, the young Dodgers first baseman. Like Pence, if he’d played in more games (as opposed to just 96) he could have given Tulowitzki a run for his money. In three important categories, he achieved some impressive numbers: his .331 average, .381 OBP, and 114 runs scored. As two nice peripherals, his walk-to-strikeout rate was the best in the class at 0.58, as was his average with runners in scoring position—a whopping .419. And not that first base is a defensively demanding position, but it’s worth noting that he can hold his own there.

Loney, Pence, and Braun (move him to first base, somebody!) might not be your NL ROYs, but any of them could very well end up being your NL MVPs a few years hence.

Continuing our tour of the majors to find out what each team needs more than anything else, we turn now to the NL West… 

Dodgers – a power hitter

The Dodgers are second to last in the National League in home runs, ahead of only the hapless Cardinals, and their .370 team slugging percentage puts them in company with such similarly punchless teams as the Nationals and the Pirates.  Jeff Kent leads the team with 7 homers and is on pace for 25 on the season. No other Dodger projects to hit even 20.

Padres – a third baseman

The neverending quest continues.  After last season, in which they tried out the likes of washed-up players such as Vinny Castilla, Mark Bellhorn, Todd Walker, and Russ Branyan at third base, the Padres thought they had finally solved their third base conundrum (at great expense) by trading their everyday second baseman Josh Barfield to the Indians for hot prospect Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Instead Kouzmanoff has batted .202 in 114 at bats.   That actually represents an improvement, as Kouzmanoff has gone 12-23 over the past week – two weeks ago, he was batting .108.  The Dodgers have actually gotten worse production out of Wilson Betemit, but at least they have top prospect Andy LaRoche if he can’t turn it around.  Kouzmanoff might continue his hot hitting and eventually right the ship, but if he can’t, the Padres have nobody to fall back on, and when I say nobody I mean nobody at all.

Diamondbacks – a catcher

Before the season started, Baseball Prospectus praised the hitting abilities of Miguel Montero and the defensive skills of Chris Synder, and wrote that together they “will form a productive, low-cost catching tandem for a few years.” Instead, the D-Backs got an as-yet-unnamed comedy act of some sort – I’m still debating between “The Two Stooges” and “Worse and Worser.” Arizona catchers are last in the entire National League with a .193 batting average and a .541 OPS, and it’s not really even close.

Rockies – a catcher

Although they have not been quite as hopeless at the plate as the D-Backs’ catchers, Rockies catchers Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta have been pretty lackluster as well, posting a .220 batting average and only 1 home run between them. Although it’s true that catcher is a defensive skill position, numbers like that are simply unacceptable in this day and age, and when you play half your games in Coors Field, downright unforgivable, as in Dan Dowd should track them down across the icy arctic wastes and slay them in cold blood if they don’t start hitting soon.

Giants – anyone under 30

Check out the ages of the Giants current lineup:

Dave Roberts - 35
Randy Winn – 33
Rich Aurelia – 35
Barry Bonds - 42
Ray Durham – 35
Ryan Klesko – 36
Pedro Feliz – 32
Benji Molina – 32
Omar Vizquel – 40

Average age – 35.6

The 2006 version of the Giants set the all time record for the oldest team in baseball history, and the 2007 team has a good shot to surpass them, with Klesko and Aurelia replacing the younger Lance Niekro and Shea Hillenbrand, and Benji Molina replacing the younger Eliezer Alfonzo.  It promises to be a constant struggle to keep all of these geriatrics in the lineup at the same time, but even worse, the Giants have no young hitting prospects of any note ready to fill in.  The Giants obviously think they can contend this year, and with their pitching staff, they have a shot, but if they are smart they would trade some of those “experienced veterans” for some up-and-coming young talent while the old guys still have any value or the ability to perambulate without a walker.

The Fanhouse made an interesting observation yesterday, pointing out that Padres 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff is off to such a horrid start “that he could go 1 for 8 in a double-header, and still raise his average!”

That’s really bad. But is Kouzmanoff this year’s biggest disappointment? Hard to say. There are plenty of candidates, including:

1. Adam LaRoche
Last year, after starting on ADD medication, LaRoche had a big second half on his way to a career year and 32 HR. But apparently LaRoche is off his meds again. So far this year he’s hitting .168 with three homers.

2. Chone Figgins
Figgins broke two fingers on his throwing hand in spring training. Since his return, Figgins is hitting .137 with three doubles and three runs batted in 14 games. He’s only had 51 at bats, but that’s still pretty disappointing.

3. Ryan Howard
He hit a game-winning pinch hit grand slam recently, so we’ll cut him a little slack. But he followed up his grand slam with a strike out. What do you think we’ll see more of in coming weeks, homers or Ks? For Philly’s sake, it better be the former.

4. Jeff Weaver
I don’t know how he pitched so well last October. It just doesn’t add up. Add Weaver to a long list of terrible Seattle free-agent signings, along with Beltre, Sexton, and Vidro. Just awful.

5. Ichiro Suzuki
He’ll turn it around. He’s freaking Ichiro in a contract year. Remember the crazy second half he had in 2005? I’m betting on a repeat performance this season.

6. Freddy Sanchez
No power. No speed. Last year was a fluke.

Did I miss anyone?