What could I say about the future of the Houston Astros that won’t make me sound like a hater?

…

Well…

You can still probably get away with calling Carlos Lee “pudgy” instead of “obese”. Does that count?

The 2008 Houston Astros was the oldest squad in the National League. Out of those who accumulated at least 200 ABs last season, only Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence were younger than 30. Wandy Rodriguez was the only 20-something pitcher who started at least four games – and he was 29. If you’re this old, then you’d better be good. But the Astros weren’t. Sure, they won 86 games but they were outscored by their opponents by 31 runs for the year. This was very much a run-of-the-mill team except for the fact that the vast majority of their roster are on the downsides of their careers. And with their last remaining prospects dealt away in the Miguel Tejada trade, there’s no help in the pipeline. Their short term future is mediocrity, which will be immediately followed by awfulness. Unless, of course, they do what they should have done a year ago and blow up the team.

After a great season, Lance Berkman’s value is not going to be this high ever again. The Big Puma (he looks more like a bear to me… Can we just call him the Bear instead?) turned in one of the best offensive years of his career with a line of .312/.420/.567. That’s not to say that moving him will be easy. Berkman’s contract is guaranteed until 2010 with a team option in 2011. However, he also has a full no-trade clause. Would guaranteeing that 2011 option year plus playing for a contending team be enough to coax Berkman into waiving that no-trade? It’s possible. But whomever takes that deal will pay him $44M over the next three years, so the guy’s not cheap. Furthermore, he’ll be 33 come Opening Day which should give teams pause before pulling the trigger. When it’s all said and done, however, Berkman will be more valuable to another team than he’s going to be in Houston over those three seasons.

A similar case could be made for Ty Wigginton, who unexpectedly had an OPS+ of 128 while primarily playing third base. Unless Chipper Jones becomes a free agent this offseason, Wigginton would probably attract far more interest than any other third baseman on the market.

As for the other big names, taller obstacles would need to be cleared. Ace Roy Oswalt is still among the best in the National League but his contract is long and huge (that’s what she said). The 31 year-old is due $45MM over the next three seasons plus a team option and no-trade. And with his slight frame (listed at 6 feet, 170lbs), there will be questions regarding future durability. Tejada only has one year remaining on his deal, but it’s for $13MM and he hit like an average shortstop as an Astro with subpar defense thrown in. Plus, Carlos Lee is an immovable object, literally and figuratively (although I don’t know which is which). Two years ago, the Astros signed him to an absurd $100MM deal that runs through 2012. Lee is still expected to be an offensive contributor for the near future, but I just cannot fathom someone taking on that contract.

Will this fix everything? Absolutely not. For one, Ed Wade is their GM so I can’t be confident that he’ll be able to get anything worthwhile in return even if he were to wheel and deal. And this is an organization with no young cornerstone players (although Pence has a shot to fill that role) so it’s going to be a long climb back into contention. Perhaps I am being too bullish about the NL Central next season but I just cannot foresee a scenario where the Houston Astros have much of a shot.

If you were to twist my arm, however, and dare me to give this team and their fans a reason to hope in 2009, here’s what must happen.

It would be a given that all of last year’s contributors would have to stay healthy. Ones of the J.R.s – Towles or House – would have to become at least a good option at the catcher’s spot because Brad Ausmus is awful and should not be brought back. Miguel Tejada needs to reverse his decline and prove that his poor season was a fluke. Hunter Pence needs to learn how to take a pitch and raise his OBP above .350 to be considered a good player in my book. And although I’m not a fan of his defense, Pence also ought to be moved back to centerfield. His defense won’t help you much, but his bat will profile better there than at the corner OF spots. Why is the defensive hit worth it? Cuz’ Michael Bourn should never start. Ever. He’s a defensive replacement until he proves otherwise. Or they can go out and sign Jim Edmonds. Although a repeat of his Chicago success is unlikely, the guy’s convinced me that he’s not quite done yet. At the very least, if he can repeat his plate discipline and defense, he’d be an upgrade.

On the mound, the Astros have two above-average pitchers in Oswalt and Wandy. But beyond that, there’s not much. Bringin Randy Wolf back is a possibility, but his past performances indicate that his numbers in Houston last year are simply unrepeatable. Chris Sampson is an underrated arm and he can solidify the back of a rotation. For the other spots, Wade should be looking for pitchers who can keep the ball down against right-handed hitters since the short left field porch at Minute Maid Park is a killer (another reason why Wolf is probably a bad match). Why not take a crack at Brad Penny on a one-year deal? Their division hopes are a roll of the dice anyway. May as well make this one a high-risk pick.

- What They Need Index -

You might have seen Nick, Coley, and Sarah’s MVP picks already. If not, then you probably should. Because only then will you be able to appreciate how much better mine are.

Call me VORPy. I believe that “most valuable” means that you were the best in that year. I do not think it’s rational to expect great players to be able to turn turd-ish teammates into 30HR-threats. And I like pie.

So please keep all of these things in mind as I take my crack at my list of MVP-worthy players in the AL and NL. And if any hate mail results from this, I will not read it unless it is accompanied by a slice of pie.

American League

#4: Dustin Pedroia – I don’t know if I have a bias for or against Pedroia. For one, he’s a Red Sox which is a negative (ducking as Sarah justifiably takes a digital swing at my head across the vast world of the interwebs). On the other hand, he’s about my size and as such is totally relatable. Plus, as a former second baseman myself, I appreciate how deftly he handles the position. So I think those two irrational sides cancel each other out. What we’re left with is a guy tied for sixth in AL Win Shares and third in Runs Created despite the fact that he plays a skill position.

#3: Roy Halladay – In a year where no AL hitter distinctively separated himself from the pack, I think it’s only right to recognize what Halladay did. Although Cliff Lee beat him for the ERA and Wins titles, Halladay was right behind him. But what puts Doc over the top is how well he performed over so many innings. His 2.78 ERA is only fully appreciated when one considers the fact that Halladay threw 22.67 more innings than any other pitcher in the AL. That’s over three more games total than Lee who’s second on that list. I don’t know about you, but I like the idea of having a guy with such a low ERA pitching instead of a crappy bullpen. How’s that for value? It should also be mentioned that Halladay finished third in strikeouts, fifth in hits allowed per nine, third in walks per nine, and of course, racked up Complete Games.

#2: Joe Mauer – It’s not just that he has a “very pretty” OBP. He led the AL in Win Shares. I don’t know when was the last time a catcher accomplished this. And while it may be odd for an MVP-candidate to have less than 10 HRs, the man still slugged .451 playing half his games in the Metrodome, which was one of the worst places for hitters in 2008. And with his second batting title in three years, he’s now the first catcher in the American League history to win two of those. The first catcher to win one AL batting title was, of course, Joe Mauer in 2006. Plus, Mauer also led the league in WPA (Win Probability Added) and led all catchers in defensive Win Shares this year as well.

#1: Grady Sizemore – Is there anything this man can’t do well? Power (sixth in HRs), plate patience (third in walks), base stealing skills (38 SBs in 43 attempts), and defense (4th in Revized Zone Rating among CFers and second in Out of Zone plays made). Add it all up and you get just a great centerfielder who finished fourth in Win Shares and second in VORP, which doesn’t even counting his strong defensive contributions.

National League:

#4: Carlos Beltran – If you think that I did a top 4 instead of a top 3 just so that I can get Beltran on this list (say it with me in your best Ed McMahon voice!), you – are – co-rrrrect, sir!!! I’m actually beginning to worry about my propensity to blabber on about this guy. Despite his HR total being lower this year, he still hit well enough to finish in the top 10 in VORP, Runs Created, and extra-base hits. He was third in Win Shares and sixth in walks. And we haven’t even begun to talk about his baserunning skills and defense in center. Although he was only 7th in Revized Zone Rating among NL CFers, he more than makes up for it by easily making the most Out of Zone plays (seriously, it’s not even close).

#3: Lance Berkman – I think it’s odd how little attention has been paid to the Big Puma. Top-5 in BA, OBP, SLG, Runs Scored, Adjusted OPS, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits, and in doing all this also ended up with the most Win Shares in the National League. Played a great first base to boot. It’s really not his fault that Brad Ausmus OPSed BELOW .600. He was a player having a great season on a mediocre team.

#2: Hanley Ramirez – This one hurts. How could I possibly put Han-Ram over Beltran? He deserves it, that’s why. Offensively, Ramirez had a similar season as he did in 2007 – a bit better in OBP, a bit worse in SLG. Didn’t come all that close in SBs, but increased his homerun output. But what I appreciated most about him this year was how much better he had become defensively. His Revised Zone Rating improved dramatically from .773 to .840 (god-awful to very good), and was seventh in Out of Zone. Last year, the only knock I had on him was his defense. Now, I got nothing. He hit 33 HRs. No other shortstop in MLB came close (Hardy was second with 24). He OPSed .940. No other shortstop was even within .100 points of the guy. He’s undoubtedly the best SS in baseball.

#1: Albert Pujols – I know. Ho-hum. But no matter how contrarian I may want to be sometimes, there’s just no way I can deny Pujols this. And that’s all I have to say about that.

Nick and Coley have already given you their MVP picks. Here are mine:

First, the American League. The runners-up:

Grady Sizemore. Smart stats love this guy, despite his crappy average this year: he was second in the AL in VORP and first in Runs Created. He also tied for fifth in homers. But it was all wasted because the Indians were so bad. Oh well.

Carlos Quentin. Let this be a lesson to him next time he wants to break his wrist to spite his bat (or whatever).

Aubrey Huff. If David Ortiz can’t win it as a DH, then Huff won’t. But you know, he finished 4th in the league in VORP, 5th in OPS and RC, and 3rd in SLG. I just thought I’d mention it, because unless you live in the 21201area code, you might have missed it.

Kevin Youkilis. Tell me if I’m wrong, but I think he was the only guy to finish in the top ten in VORP, RC, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That’s pretty badass. Plus, he plays gold-glove worthy first base and can easily slide across the diamond to play third. Heck, you can even stick him in the outfield. Terrible facial hair, though.

But there can be only one winner, and that person is…..

Dustin Pedroia. No, he’s not the trendy pick–at least, not among the baseball eggheads who are sick of hearing about the Red Sox and their annoyingly good players and just plain annoying (but devoted!) fans. (Screw you too, jerkface!) But Pedroia had 73 extra-base hits this year (including 17 HR) this year to Joe Mauer’s* 44 (including 9 HR). Mauer, the catcher, has 1 stolen base and 1 caught-stealing. Pedroia, no real speedster, has 20 stolen bases and was also caught once. (How did he do that if he doesn’t have real wheels? The old-fashioned way: using his brain.) Pedroia led the league in runs, tied for first in hits (213), came in second by just .004 .002 [edit: after game 163] in batting average, finished third in runs created (while Mauer finished 18th there), and was fourth in total bases (with Mauer tied for 33rd). Pedroia also finished third in the AL in VORP (to Mauer’s 7th-place finish) behind Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore, whose teams failed to make the playoffs this year. He played in 157 games and quietly drove in 140** runs while playing an acrobatic second base and energizing a team that suffered demoralizing injuries to their ace pitcher, cleanup hitter, and 2007 World Series MVP—while also coping with the tantrum and subsequent ouster of their most productive hitter. Without Dustin Pedroia, does anyone seriously think the Red Sox would have even made the playoffs? He’s been just as important to their playoff drive as Mauer*** was to the Twins’–and what’s more, he had a better year than Mauer. Case closed.

* I feel obligated to bring up Mauer here because so many people seems to be picking him over Pedroia, not least my colleagues at UmpBump. And look, I’m not one to undervalue a catcher’s contribution to the team, ever. But I honestly don’t know why we’re seriously talking about Mauer for MVP this year at all. (Yes, nice OBP. Very pretty. Well done. Now run along, and try to reach double digits in homers next time.)

**Now, anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I tend to pooh-pooh RBI as a stat, but keep in mind the context here: Mauer ranked 21st in MLB in RBI opportunities. Pedroia ranked 40th. But Mauer somehow finished with just 85 RBI to Pedroia’s 140. And those who would tout Mauer’s admittedly admirable ability to take a walk, I’d like to point out that despite this ability, Mauer grounded into 21 double plays–four more than the contact-prone Pedroia. And it’s not like Pedroia just swings at anything; he’s even a bit tougher to strike out than Mauer.

***To me, it’s a wash whether it’s more “valuable” to keep your team from failing when everyone expects them to succeed or to help your team succeed when everyone expects them to fail.

On to the NL. First, the doomed-to-fail runners-up:

Ryan Howard. As Coley pointed out, he led the NL in both homers and RBI, and his team did make the playoffs. But I include him only out of a feeling of obligation.

Hanley Ramirez. As Nick pointed out, he’s the young player every GM and fantasy owner would love to have. He carried the Marlins through a surprisingly good year. His time will come.

Lance Berkman. He had a great year–114 runs scored, second in RC, third in OPS and OBP, fourth in VORP. He also had 29 homers and, somewhat surprisingly, 18 steals. But the funny thing is, there are so many guys ahead of him on the home run list–Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Delgado, etc and etc–that his great year just isn’t good enough.

Chipper Jones. Now here‘s an AVG and OBP worth writing home about: .364 and .470, respectively, plus he was one of only two players in the NL to OPS over 1.000.

And yet there is only one clear winner here. And that is the other guy to OPS over 1.000. Who is…

Albert Pujols, despite his crappy team (hey, they would’ve won the NL West!), he clearly deserves the NL MVP and it’s not even close. He’s first in VORP, first in RC, first in OPS, second in OBP, and [yawn] first in SLG. Really, the guy is sick. There’s just nothing more to say.

It’s time for each member of the umpbump staff to make his or her MVP picks. Nick went first. Now it’s my turn. Buckle up — it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

American League

Rob Neyer says 30 win shares is a good baseline for an MVP caliber season and if he’s right than we’ve got a problem, because not one single player had 30 win shares in the AL this season. Still, I’ve got to pick someone, so I guess I’ll go with…

3. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees. In 100 fewer at bats, he hit only two fewer home runs than league leader Miguel Cabrera. His .573 slugging percentage led the league, and his .964 OPS was fourth. Defensively, he had the highest fielding percentage among AL third basemen, and he got to more balls outside his zone than any AL 3B other than Adrian Beltre. Oh, and he stole 18 bases.

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox. He was third in runs created in the AL this season, behind Grady Sizemore and Josh Hamilton. His .325 batting average was second in the league. He stole 20 bases and only got caught once. He was arguably the best defensive second baseman in the league, and he gets extra credit for being adorable.

1. Joe Mauer, C, Twins. I don’t have much to add beyond what Nick said. This guy is the best all around player in the game. He’s not only one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, but he is one of the best defensive player overall. This season, Kurt Suzuki led the majors with 9.3 defensive win shares. Mauer came in second with 8.2. That’s not second among only catchers. That’s all positions. To do what he does defensively and also lead the league in hitting makes for an obvious MVP selection, as far as I’m concerned.

National League

This year’s NL MVP selection is complicated a bit by the enigmatic Ryan Howard, who managed to lead the league in home runs and RBI — by a lot — while maintaining an anemic .250 batting average. How do you not vote for a guy who led the league in homers and RBI? This is how…

3. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies. He’s tied for fourth in the league with 27 win shares and eighth in defensive win shares. He’s fifth in the league in runs created. Utley’s season stalled after a torrid April. The media speculated that he was playing hurt. Utley denied it, saying he wasn’t injured beyond the usual bumps and bruises that a player accrues over the course of a season. But what a lot of fans don’t know is that Utley’s bruises are more plentiful than most. He was hit by a pitch 27 times this season — almost twice as many HBPs as anybody else. He does whatever it takes to win. And he’s an above average defensive second baseman.

2. Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros. I’m having a hard time not voting for Berkman for MVP, just because he clearly had an MVP calliber year. He had four more win shares than anyone in the NL, including Albert Pujols. But that’s about the only metric I can find that favors Berkman.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals. He was the man. He led the league in OPS and runs created. He was second in batting average and OBP, behind Chipper Jones. He walked nearly twice as often as he struck out. Moreover, as Jayson Stark point out, Pujols “racked up almost twice as many intentional walks (33) as anybody else in the league and only 46 percent of the pitches thrown to him have been in the strike zone.” That’s an MVP.

The week six results for the UmpBump fantasy league are in. Time for quick look at who’s performing and who isn’t!

Sarah: This was a terrible week for the Somerville Green Sox. What sort of terrible? Well, my one save was taken away after the official scorer realized he’d made a mistake, making me the only one in the UmpBump league to finish the week without a single save. And then Vernon Wells, he of the 5 homers and 24 RBI, broke his wrist. That’s the sort of week it was. That said, my team did not play badly (except for a truly abysmal Saturday when they racked up the o-fers like they were on clearance). And in fact, of the 11 other teams in our league, there are only three who would have beaten me this week and only one that would have really kicked my ass. Unfortunately, that’s the team I was playing. After a week of intense back and forth, my men ultimately fell like fall leaves before the one-man onslaught that is Lance Berkman. (Seriously, a .741 OBP for the week? 25 bases? Two homers and two steals? Who can compete with that??) I fell from No. 3 in our league back to the five-slot. I finally admitted that Yovani Gallardo was not coming back this season, that I could never truly trust Kyle Lohse, and that Mark Mulder (still on the DL) was not going to solve my problems. I dropped all of them and picked up Dana Eveland, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Homer Bailey (call him up already!). Hot: Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler, Andy Pettitte (for now, anyway) Not: Eric Gagne (I’m, like, soooo surprised), Johnny Cueto (tons of K’s, sky-high ERA—why?! WHY?!).

Alejandro: I cannot be stopped. I’m on a roll. Watch out. Actually, I’m not tearing it up exactly, but I did have a convincing 8-3 win over Pirates in ‘08!. I won 5 offensive categories and tied in the sixth, and I have to thank my superb GM skills for picking up Dan Uggla on waivers. I could use better pitching, as I only collected 2 wins (though I did rack up 4 saves), so I’m taking a gamble on Vicente Padilla, who’s 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA. I also rid myself of the disaster that is Kevin Millwood. I am now 1 game under .500. Next stop, league leader. Hot: Dan Uggla, Alex Gordon, Carlos Lee, Emil Brown (is he for real?), Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum (man crush!). Not: Dustin Pedroia (trade anyone?), Fred Lewis (what was I thinking?), Gavin Floyd (but I can’t give up on him yet!), Kevin Milwood (DROPPED).

Paul: So ElDuquesInjuryReport keeps on truckin’. But I can’t seem to shake off Scott’s Utley’s Firm Quads, who’s only two games behind me in the standings. While it’s way too early in the season to be worried about much of anything (except for a Jorge Sosa appearance in a close and late game), I’m already wondering if this is going to be a tight race all year. As far as my roster is concerned, I had two tough decisions to make. With the respective returns of Shane Victorino and Scott Kazmir from the DL, I had to drop a pitcher and a position player. The decision on the pitching front wasn’t so difficult, since it’s becoming more and more apparent that there’s something wrong with Jeremy Bonderman. His strikeouts have plummeted and his walks have skyrocketed. So he’s out. But I spent a good three days mulling over whether or not I should keep Victorino or Ryan Church. Is Church for real? Or is this just a case of a guy who’s playing way over his head? Ultimately, I decided to just let the historical numbers tell me what to do, and let Church go. He then proceeds to crank out three dingers. And is now on Scott’s team. Awesome. Hot: The Greek God of Walks (5 HRs! 10 RBIs! 30TBs!), Ted Lilly, C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee. Not: Jhonny Peralta, Brian Roberts, Andy Sonnanstine.

Coley: Another week, another loss. At least this one was close. One more run and one more HR and we would have tied. Oh well. The good news is I was able to snag Milton Bradley as a free agent. Anytime you can add a guy with a .424 OBP for free, that’s a good day. I also picked up Guillermo Mota, in the hope that he becomes Milwaukee’s regular closer. After yesterday’s Soloman Torres implosion, I feel good about Mota’s chances. Hot: Josh Hamilton, Scott Rolen, Milton Bradley, Dice-K. Not: Jered Weaver, Brett Myers, Melky Cabrera.

Here is my take on who should be the National League and American League MVPs this year. Unlike Alejandro, I am not trying to guess who will actually be named MVP. Rather, I have tried to decide who actually is the most valuable player in each league. Also, I have offered up my top five picks for each league, because that’s just the generous type of guy I am.

National League

5. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros

Has anybody been more valuable to the Houston Astros over the past three years? You could make a case for Roger Clemens, but the fact is that if you took Clemens’ bloated salary and actually signed some offensive players, the Astros probably would have won a World Series by now, instead of losing 2-1 whenever Clemens pitches. But the fact is that over the last three years, whenever Berkman is hurt, the Astros lose, and lose horribly, but as soon as Berkman is back in the lineup, the Astros zoom back into contention. This year, Berkman is rather quietly having the best year of his career. He is third in the National League with 126 runs created, and is on pace to set career highs in home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage.

4. Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cinncinati Reds

The Reds surprised everyone by contending for most of the season, and that fact is almost entirely due to the Wayne Krivskey’s brilliant acquisition of Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena. The Reds have always had tons of offense but have never had any pitching, particularly starting pitching. That is, until Bronson came along and significantly exceeded his career norms to pitch like a Cy Young candidate and give the Reds a legitimate stopper every five days or so. Plus, Bronson quickly became a team leader and showed himself to be an absolute gamer, demanding the ball in the biggest games and volunteering to pitch on three days rest on several occasions. Many people think that the MVP should go to the player who was most valuable to his team, and if that is truly your criterion, it would be very hard not to give the award to Arroyo.

3. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers

A 23-year-old rookie, Russell Martin wasn’t called up from the minor leagues until May, but he has been an absolute godsend to the Dodgers, and I can say with absolute certainty that the Dodgers would not be anywhere near contention now if not for his presence. When Martin was called up, Dodgers catchers had only thrown out one runner in about 30 attempts as teams ran wild on 80-year-old Sandy Alomar Jr., and limp-armed Dioner Navarro. But then Martin came on and has thrown out an amazing 32 percent of basestealers. Martin has also been an oldschool workhorse behind the plate, catching 104 out of 124 games since his callup, and once even catching a Sunday day game immediately after catching all 15 innings of an extra-inning Saturday night game. Despite being a complete rookie who came straight from double-A, Martin has also impressed everyone with his veteran-like leadership behind the dish, once telling Derek Lowe he would not leave the fucking mound until Lowe calmed the fuck down, and drawing rave reviews from no less than the great Greg Maddux himself, who says of Martin, “He has very good baseball sense…If you can’t throw to this guy, you can’t throw to anybody.” But perhaps most importantly of all, Martin has been the only real clutch hitter and leader-type on a team full of introverted types like Nomar, Jeff Kent, and J.D. Drew, serving as the voice of the team to the media despite being a rookie and hitting several huge, David-Ortiz-like late inning homers down the stretch. I don’t think anybody but me will even put Martin on their MVP ballot at all, but the numbers to back it up are astonishing. When Martin catches, the Dodgers are 64-42, 22 games over .500. When anyone else catches, the Dodgers are 16-31, 15 games under .500. Sounds like a pretty damn valuable player to me.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

Every year, the Cardinals get worse and worse, and yet every year they still win the NL Central, because every year Albert Pujols gets better and better. The guy is an absolute beast, leading the entire major leagues in OPS and slugging. Considering the still ascending trendline in his season stats from year to year, it is truly scary to think that we may not even have seeen what King Albert is truly capable of yet. But he was not the most valuable player in the league this year.

1. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies

I once said that the only way the Phillies could make the playoffs was if Ryan Howard hit 40 home runs in August and September. Howard has done just about everything he could do except that, and the Phillies, once dead in the water, are now only half a game out of the wild card. Looking at the numbers, Ryan Howard leads the major leagues with 144 runs created this year, and a ridiculous 10.00 runs created per 27 outs. This means that a team of nine Ryan Howards would score 10 runs every game. And while I generally don’t put much stock in traditional statistics, sometimes you just have to gawk at them and let your mouth hang open when you see that Howard is on pace for 61 homers and 149 RBI. As much as I was hoping to have an uncoventional pick for NL MVP, I have to go with the crowd on this one, because, let’s face it, is there any player in the entire National League that you would rather have had on your team this year than Ryan Howard? I think the answer is clear.

American League

5. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians

If Travis Hafner hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury that cost him all of September, he would have forced his way into serious contention for the MVP award, despite the fact that the Indians won’t make the postseason. Simply put, when Hafner played this year, he was the most devastating hitter in all of baseball, delivering a staggering 10.31 runs created per 27 outs, puting the NL’s Ryan Howard a distant second among major leaguers with 10.00 RC/27. Even with the injury, Hafner was still a tremendously valuable player for the Indians this year, putting up dazzling numbers of .308/.439/.659 to go along with 46 homers, 100 runs, and 117 RBI – all this in only 5 months of play.

4. Johan Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins

It is clear that Johan Santana is the best pitcher on the planet right now, which makes him a pretty darn valuable player. Although his stellar projected numbers of 19-6, 2.79, and 256 Ks certainly bring him to the fringes of the MVP discussion, they are not quite amazing enough to put him over the top. Whereas someone like Pedro Martinez in 1999 clearly deserved to be MVP (even though he was snubbed), the cult of the 100-pitch-count limit has made it increasingly difficult for a pitcher to put up the kind of truly dominant numbers that could lead to MVP consideration. Still, it’s scary to contemplate what kind of numbers Santana would have put up this year if he hadn’t suffered from a case of WBC disease in April, when he started off the year 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.

3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians

Quick, which player is second in the American League to only David Ortiz in runs created this season? You can easily be forgiven if you didn’t know that it was Grady Sizemore before reading this post. Sizemore has had an absolutely amazing season, and is on pace for 136 runs, 55 doubles, 27 home runs, and 75 RBI out of the leadoff spot. Plus, unlike most of the other players on these lists who are first-basemen or DH’s, Sizemore plays one of the all-important “skill positions” up the middle, where he contributes a lot more on the defensive side with his outstanding defense in centerfield. Sizemore has also maximized his value to his team with his durability, playing in every single Indians game so far this season. It is no wonder that the most popular item of apparel among young women this season at Jacobs Field is the jersey that says “Mrs. Sizemore” on the back.

2. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox

David Ortiz continues to leave the door open to speculation that he is some sort of freakish alien from outer space, as he finishes off a season even more ridiculous than the last two, leading the American League in runs created, breaking the Red Sox record for homers, and getting ever more implausible game-winning clutch hits. I am not sympathetic at all to the contention that the MVP should never go to a DH, especially when one of those DH’s is the guy who made sabermetricians rethink the idea that there is no such thing as clutch hitting. If Ortiz had somehow lifted the Red Sox to the postseason on the sheer force of his will, I think everyone would have conceded the point, but that has not happened, and Ortiz has slumped a bit down the stretch to the point where it once again enters the conversation that he does not contribute any runs prevented on defense, has Manny Ramirez hitting behind him, and plays in a very hitter friendly park.

1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

To truly measure a player’s value, you have to take into account how easy it would be to replace his production with other players. The fact is, far too many first-basemen win MVP awards, because even though first basemen tend to put up huge offensive numbers, they don’t contribute many runs prevented on defense and it is relatively much easier to find another hard-hitting first-baseman than another, oh I don’t know, say, a hard-hitting catcher. Check this out: Joe Mauer as of this writing has created 100 runs for his team. As a catcher. That is an amazing number for any player, but when you consider all the other value Mauer brings to his team as an outstanding catcher, his offense catapults him into MVP territory. We are talking about a catcher who is batting .345 and slugging .500, and is only 23 years old. Basically, we are seeing a young Mike Piazza offensively, only whereas Piazza was a terrible defensive catcher, Mauer not only contributes on defense, but is in fact a dominant defensive catcher, throwing out nearly 40 percent of would-be basestealers and fielding at a .995 clip. So he’s really more like a combination of the best traits of a young Mike Piazza and a young Ivan Rodriguez. Because he puts up a .950 OPS and dazzling defense at a position that is otherwise thought of as an offensive wasteland, or else a tradeoff between offense or defense, Mauer is literally irreplaceable. If you were going to start an expansion team and you could pick any player to build your team around for the future, you would pretty much have to pick Joe Mauer. But he is already the most valuable player in the American League, even now.